Guest Poster: Shippensburg Preview

I'm happy to present to you this post by GBC on the upcoming Shippensburg meet. It's a great piece of in depth analysis. Hope you enjoy!

So, I’m new at this, but I figured since I’ve run at this meet a few times, I’d try to give a decent preview for it. Looking at the performance list, I’m really excited to see how all the individual distance races play out. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like anyone is putting a great 4x8 team in, but maybe there will be a surprise. This meet has produced some solid 4x8’s the last few years with Red Lion winning last year on their way to a 5^th place finish at States, and Chambersburg and CV going 1-2 in 2012 before doing the same at States, except in a different order. Maybe this year we’ll see another team start their run to a state medal. I think if anyone is going to do that, it would be Williamsport. It looks like they only have a few runners from last year’s team on this year’s entry, so we’ll see.

On to the best distance event of the day, in my opinion, the 3200. There are some absolute studs entered, and assuming nobody scratches, I think this will be the race of the day. We have two guys in Abert and Gebhart who aren’t afraid to take things out, which should result in a fast race. To start with, we have the duo from Lower Dauphin, Cole Nissley and Jeff Groh. Now, Groh is entered in every distance event, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratch one of them. Honestly, if he is going to scratch anything, I think it would be this. After the speed he showed last week in the 800, I think he is going to focus on the 1600 from here on out. Back to the 3200 though, if he does run it, I could see Groh running around 9:25. Cole Nissley is, in my opinion, one the most underrated runners in the state. He has been very consistent over the last few years, and he’s due for a great time. He’s run some very good times up to this point, but I think he is going to step it up to the next level this weekend. I see him going out with the top group, and running in the 9:15-9:20 range. Next up we have the duo from New Oxford, Jacob Plank and Aaron Gebhart. Gebhart is becoming a well-known name around the state, but very few people know about Jacob Plank. He was on pace for a great season in cross country before he was hurt. I think this could be a breakout weekend for him, and with this field, I see him around 9:30. Now, on to Plank’s teammate, Aaron Gebhart. I think he’s got the potential to mix it up for the win. He is one of the gutsiest runners I’ve ever seen, and I think he’s going to show that this weekend. He’s not afraid to take a race out, and over the last few years, he’s become better and better at finishing these races. I think there will be four people under 9:20, and I think he’ll be one of them. Next up is Aaron Lauer, from Red Land. He’s been consistently improving over the last two years, and is due for some recognition. I think he’ll get that after this weekend. I have said it already, but I’ll say it again, this is a great field if you want a fast race, and I think Lauer is going to be one of the beneficiaries. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him under 9:30. The next guy I want to talk about is Will Cather. I am a little surprised to see him entered in this to be honest, but I think he’s going to run decently. He showed a lot of range during the indoor season, so I think he’ll mix things up. That being said, I think with this field, he’s a bit outclassed. He could prove me very wrong, but I think his focus is, and should be, the 800. If he runs this, I see him around 9:35, which is certainly not a bad time, but with this field, won’t look all that special. The last two guys I want to talk about are the two guys that really have me excited about this field, Colin Abert, and Patrick Reilly. I’ll deal with Abert first. I think he’s going to take this race out fast. He’s never been afraid on the big stage, and I don’t think this will be any different. I think he’ll be the reason this race stays honest, and I see him ending up in the 9:15-9:20 range. Last, but certainly not least, Patrick Reilly. He burst onto the scene his junior year, and has been steadily improving since then. He ran a great race at indoor states, and I think he’s going to keep that roll going, also running somewhere around 9:15-9:20. So, now that I’ve covered the main players, here’s my final prediction:

Reilly: 9:16
Abert: 9:18
Gebhart: 9:19
Nissley: 9:20
Groh: 9:24
Plank: 9:28
Lauer: 9:29
Cather: 9:32

The next best distance race, in my opinion, is going to be the 1600. There are going to be a few people doubling back from the 3200, but also a few fresh studs, namely Brehm and DeLuca. I think this is going to be the meet where we finally see Brehm turned loose. The coaching staff at Carlisle is really smart, they’ve showed that the last few years. Their kids always peak well and at the right time, and I think this is going to be when we start to see their kids drop some big times. With that in mind, I’ll start with Brehm and Jon Carroll. Jon Carroll is an 800 guy at heart, but I think running a 1600 or two will be pretty good for his strength. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him under 4:30, but I don’t think he’ll do it this weekend. I see him being somewhere in the 4:32-35 range. Brehm showed last year that he can double, triple, heck, even quadruple like an animal. After the season he had this fall, I think we’ll see him under 4:20, the only question is how far. The next guy I’m really excited to watch in this race is Dom DeLuca. He’s not running the 3200, so I think we’re about to see him go for a sick time here. When the dust settles, I think he’s going to be under 4:18, possibly as low as 4:15. One of the names in this field that people may not be familiar with, but is worth keeping an eye on, is Austin Stetler. He’s an 800 guy from Penn Manor, but I think he is going to drop a nice time, somewhere around 4:25. After that, we have a bunch of guys doubling back from the 3200, Reilly, Gebhart, Nissley, Groh, and Lauer. I’ve already said a lot about these guys, so I’ll just say one thing, and then give my final prediction. If Groh is fresh in this race, which I’m going to assume he will be, he is going to be a force to be reckoned with. So, here’s how I see this playing out:

Brehm: 4:16
DeLuca: 4:17
Groh: 4:18
Reilly: 4:23
Nissley: 4:25
Stetler: 4:25
Gebhart: 4:28
Lauer: 4:30
Carroll: 4:32

Finally, we have the 800. This is definitely not as deep as some of the other distance events, but there are still some studs worth watching. To start with, we have the State College duo of Cather and Golembski. I think Cather is going to live up to that indoor All-American title, and drop a great time, potentially even under 1:53, but that would depend on how fresh he is. If he runs the 3200, I don’t think he’ll be quite that fast. Golembski showed some serious talent indoors, and I think he’s about to keep that streak going, and tear up an outdoor track too. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him in the 1:54-55 range. Carlisle will counter the State College duo with a stellar duo of their own in Brehm and Carroll. Like I said before, I think Brehm is about to be turned loose this weekend. I see him being right with Cather the whole way in what will be an epic battle. This race is going to come down to the last 100 meters. I think Carroll is also going to begin to establish himself as more than a relay piece. He ran some great relay legs for Carlisle last year, and is due to put down a great open time. I think he’ll be in the 1:56’s somewhere. We also have the North Penn guys entered. I honestly don’t know a whole lot about them, but they had a solid 4x800 indoors, so I would assume they’ve got some pretty solid open 800 runners. Finally, if we see Groh in this race, I think we’ll see him mixing it up with the top 5. So, the big question, who’s going to win? Brehm or Cather? Here’s how I see it playing out:

Cather: 1:52.9
Brehm: 1:53.6
Golembski: 1:55.8
Carroll: 1:56.7
Groh: 1:56.9

-GBC