Indoor Standings 1/19

By Jarrett Felix

So I created some tables to help us keep track of the top times in the state and the potential entries for states. I covert all times using PTFCA guidelines to make all marks an apples to apples comparison. I also provide my guess about who will scratch or enter each event. Using the information available, you can tweak my projected scratches and figure out where each runner will fall.

Remember coaches, be sure to enter your athletes, even if they are not under the SQG! Last year multiple 800m runners got in, including a 2:03 man, most likely because coaches assumed their guys would not get in. My lists were reasonably accurate last year so it's safe to assume if you are anywhere near the edge of my projected cut off its worth entering the state meet. 

Of course we still have a ton of time to sort things out, but for fun, check out the qualifying picture and my thoughts below. There is potential for a lot of questions with all these moving parts, so ask away and share your thoughts here, on lxvplus or on the playground. Yes, shameless plugs for the other sites.

4x800m & DMR

As of the writing of this piece, most people are in agreement that the 4x800 is the deepest event on the distance side. Out front, we already have four teams under 8:07: Abington, Bishop Shanahan, CB East and CB West. That doesn't even count the potential for future success of teams like Pennridge, State College, Downingtown West or LaSalle.

I'd bet a large amount of money that Abington, BS and CBW will all be throwing out their "A" team to start the state meet. CB East is a bit more of a wildcard. Out of those four teams, CB East has the biggest individual talent, Jake Brophy, and it's unclear what event he is thinking for states. If he is looking for the mile again, the 4x8 would make it a very tough double and harm his individual odds at a title in a loaded mile field. On the flip side, if he's in the 3k, the 3k-DMR double is practically impossible, especially with the new schedule. They have nice enough depth to put up solid B squads in either event. Their A team could be in the mix for gold in either event, although there are some real Titans in both events. Right now I'm leaning slightly towards 4x8-3k double for Brophy, but you never know, you could even him scratch all individuals for both relays. Nothing would surprise me at this point considering their strategy last winter.

DMR seems like GFS's for the taking as of right now. I still get the feeling they will run this thing completely fresh, despite the fact that Dahl is the clear 3k favorite as of now and Hepp is PA #2 at 800m. We will see what happens with Dahl's mile coming up at the armory. If he can run something comparable to his 4:14 split, then the mile becomes a more feasible option for the double. Of course GFS could also have themselves a nice 4x8 if they so choose, but hard to imagine they will lean that direction with their A squad given their history. Speaking of history, LaSalle is another intriguing DMR squad. Neshaminy, SC and Pennridge are now sleepers. I still haven't gotten a feel for who exactly seems like a logical choice to completely save up for the DMR. Somebody will do it (Henderson?) and it will pay off, but as of now I've got no clue how each team will play their cards under the new order.

Of course, this speculation doesn't affect my list of qualifiers. As I've said on record multiple times, if I'm a coach, there's no reason for me to scratch a relay that I've qualified for. If I decide not to run my A squad, I just throw out a B team and let some of my lesser known, hardworking athletes take the reigns. In my mind, I can't predict which coaches don't have that attitude and feel morally obligated to enter the relay only if they have an A team, so I'm assuming everybody enters every relay. That's why, in both events, I feel you will have to be in the top 12 to qualify.

Mile & 800 & 3k

Jaxson Hoey becomes the big favorite with his most recent Millrose win. Running 4:12.05 might be intimidating enough to push someone like Kolor towards the 800 (although I doubt he will change his plans just because of Hoey, I doubt he backs down from the challenge). Until DT West puts together a relay, can't help but feel like Jaxson will try the mile-8 double at states like Ritz a year before. Kolor doing the same double makes a lot of sense.

You can see on my list, anybody who I believe is focusing on the mile but also qualifies in the 800 will probably run both. At the very least, you get another chance to race and see if things break right and the later event has little to no effect on your performance (only mental effects). Mile-800 double seems much more fun than mile-3k, but runners are crazy people.

Realistically, if you are going after a big performance in the DMR, you can really run the 3k with one of your top guys. I also believe that the mile-3k double is incredibly hard and takes a unique talent so I'm not sure anybody who believes they can win gold in the 3k will touch the mile. To a lesser extent, same goes for the mile-800 double, but this one is more doable in my eyes.

Some top relay guys will scratch both individuals for both relays, but my guess is most top notch individuals will plan their individual events around their top relay. For example, if Pennridge goes 4x8, then I'd imagine Desko does the open 8 as there will be more rest time. On the flip side for someone like Patrick Grant of LaSalle would maybe try the open mile-DMR double if his team is going for the DMR as the mile optimizes his time to rest. 

And of course some teams will understand their individual stars deserve a chance to chase all state honors or even state golds. In those cases, the relay will take the back seat. Honestly, this has the biggest chance to playing a role in the 3k. Goes like Rob Morro and Rusty Kujdych would both be key guys to watch.