Yale Preview

By Jarrett Felix

Entries: http://www.therealtrain.blogspot.com/2016/01/yale-classic-entries.html?m=1

After last week flipped the state rankings upside down, this week looks large as another potential jaw dropper. By the time you read this, Jaxson Hoey may have already placed his bid for the Millrose Games and taken over the state lead in the Mile. The Millrose Trials are a great opportunity for the Downingtown West senior to join a prestigious list of PA stand outs that have punched tickets to the games including state mile champs Sam Ritz, Tony Russell, Jack Huemmler and Ned Willig (i.e. The last 4 indoor state champs). 

But Jaxson's Downingtown West team should be heavily in the spotlight at another meet this weekend, the Yale Classic in Connecticut. In total, 5 of the team's top 7 from states will contest either the 3k or the mile at Yale and the team is also listed for both the 4x8 and the DMR. They haven't put down a truly notable mark in either event, but considering that Jaxson, Josh and Ryan Barton are absent from individual events on this weekend's performance lists, this might be the time they begin to show their stuff. Of course, on the flip side, they are not entered in either of the championship sections at the invite (as of now) and so perhaps we won't see the full explosion of fast relays fans are hoping for. 

I'm not sure there has been an early season DMR that has been in the low 10:20s (maybe Henderson in 2013-14?), so if West takes off towards that kind of time, we could be in for a real treat. Remember those Henderson and O'Hara teams from 2014 ran two of the fastest indoor DMRs in national history, not just state history. If they stack the 4x8, sub 8 would be a current state lead, but considering the way Abington has run this season, it would take at least 7:55 for me to put West in a similar class. As I mentioned yesterday, the 4x8 is no joke right now. West has the pieces to contend, but it's no push over, especially when you consider the 800 might be under distance for all 4 team members. Apparently, the over 600 section of the 4x8 has a lot of out of state talent as well that could help create a very fast race according to our Dylan Jaklitsch. 

But enough about that, there's plenty of other relays worth discussing. West Chester (Henderson I assume) and GFS are both entered in the championship section of the DMR this weekend in their first real attempts at this distance this year. These are two of the most consistently successful DMR programs of the past decade (O'Hara and LaSalle deserve a mention). But both teams are arguably on different ends of the building spectrum. This may be GFS's best chance for a state title in the event. They've had some extremely close runs (2007, 2010, 2015) but have missed out on the gold. They return the heart of last year's team with Nick Dahl and Grayson Hepp back and began their indoor campaign with a very strong 8:19 4x8 for a runaway victory. This meet is a chance for them to state their claim as title favorites and I predict when the dust settles this weekend they will have PA #1 status.

Meanwhile, Henderson is a new team on the rise. After winning the state title in 2014, the 2015 squad snuck back into the field at states, helped in part by the running of Senior Alex Knapp. With Knapp gone, essentially all the ties to the 2013-2014 teams are gone, meaning Henderson has to transition to the next era of competitiveness. Spencer Smucker has decided to lace up his spikes for indoors this year and he and his teammates will look to make a statement this weekend about West Chester's ability to stay relevant in the state landscape.

In the under 600 smaller school section, PA will have teams from Bishop Shanahan, Great Valley and Holy Ghost Prep in attendance. If Shanahan decides to put their A team on the track, they will be an intriguing watch considering their early 4x8 success, however they have a team entered in the championship 4x8 the day after the DMR so they may be hoping to put a fresh squad for that battle. Meanwhile, Holy Ghost Prep seems like a team that could do real damage in the DMR. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them crack 10:50 considering their most recent marks. They had 3 guys at 4:40 or faster in the mile at Haverford and Donahue has been on a roll, highlighted by his 4:34. Some combination of Donahue-Dineen-Lennon and Eagen could make serious noise. 

As mentioned Shanahan will be in the championship 4x8 where they will hope to improve on their season best of 8:20. They've run a ton of 4x8s this season already and this team is, I believe, the same squad that ran together a year ago, meaning they shouldn't have any problems with chemistry or sharpness. This is a fast track with ideal competition, so we will see if Shanahan belongs among the top contenders or just a tier below. Anything under 8:10 would put them in the top tier at this stage in the game and be hard to ignore, even from a smaller school.

Individually, PA will have a few top runners in both the 8 and the mile, including the HG Prep trio and GFS's Grayson Hepp. Brett Zatlin and Austin Maxwell will also contest the open mile, hoping to dip under 4:40 and onto the state leader board. Zatlin has been hovering around the top names in recent weeks, but will likely be doubling back off a DMR leg the night before. Maxwell should be fresh and, after a strong smr leg at Chesmonts, could be ready for a strong mile. We know his strength is good based on his XC season where he placed top 50 in AAA.

But the 3k is where the magic tends to happen. Last year Dom Hockenbury led PA, breaking 8:40 in the 3k, while in past years Tony Russell has done the same to light up the PA scoreboard. Both of those jaw dropping marks came in the runners junior season, a trend Nick Dahl hopes he can continue in 2016. Dahl ran sub 9 minutes for the 2 mile this past outdoors, a truly remarkable and historic time for a high school athlete. And he was only a sophomore. Now, the talent is coming back to the same track where he ran 8:44ish last year, his best mark of the indoor season. Sub 8:40 is definitely feasible on the right day for Nick and, considering his PRs, he might even be sub 8:35. It's still very early and he has a DMR leg to do as well the night before the 3k, but this guy has smashed expectations before and I'm not about to put limits on him again.

In section two, PA state medalists Henry Sappey and Spencer Smucker will take to the track along with West Chester Henderson's Josh Richard. Sappey ran 8:59 earlier this year and had a fantastic stretch run to his senior XC season. He is not as proven on the track as he was on the trails, where he was an absolute monster, but it appears that with the Hoeys around, Sappey will be able to focus more on the longer distances than he did last year when he was running a ton of 4x8s and DMRs. He ran 9:30 for 3200m last spring.

Meanwhile, Smucker is entered in his first 3k. He has proven his ability in both the mile and the 800 as a frosh, meaning he should translate well to the track, perhaps even more smoothly than Sappey. Both runners could have a little extra junk in their legs depending on the DMR/4x8 the night before.

Josh Richard is a bit of an unknown to me on the Henderson roster. But Coach K clearly has confidence in him based on his seed, so it should be fun to see what he has got. 

More chesmont talent in the form of Rob Moser, Jack Downing, Jake O'Neill, Ben Ryherd and Drew Alansky will also toe the line in the 3,000. I really like Moser's potential to run a fast time. I liked his performance at Chescos and feel that he is gutsy enough to make something big happen in this race. He may be in the perfect race to drop something in the 9:05ish range which would be a fantastic run. I'm also looking forward to Alansky's race. I liked the way he progressed over the course of the season for West and he seems to be ascending in the right direction headed into this meet.