As more and more of the top runners from this past cross country season begin to pop up in meet results, we edge closer to a complete state picture. Today I posted my current standings for the distance events in the state, including my predictions for who will run which event, on LXV+. You check them out using these links:
Mile:
800m:
3,000m:
DMR:
With the new relay order, teams will have to make some complicated decisions and I'm very excited to see where each team allocates their resources. With the distance relays splitting the meet, doubles and triples suddenly seem much more realistic and logical than they have in the past. But how feasible is a distance triple at a one day meet like indoor states?
I tried to look back over the years to recall some triplers of the past, and here is some of what I've seen. In 2007, Jason Weller, one of the best doublers in the state's history, went toe to toe with Paul Springer in a mile showdown, ending up in 2nd overall. Then he doubled back to give the 3k a go, nearly setting the meet record and breaking 8:30 for gold. That left anchor duty on the DMR where Weller, running on fumes, managed to pull his team to a medal but not much more.
In 2010, Tom Mallon, the defending state champ and state record holder at 800m, was looking to test his limits in the upper distances. He jumped up to the mile and went toe to toe with Tom Kehl, the state leader and mile specialist. But Mallon was able to topple Kehl, with a sprint to the finish. However, the turn around to the open 8 was quick for Tom and that left him vulnerable. After Luke Lefebure ran a blistering 1:53.9 in the second section, the pressure was on the fast heat. But everyone defaulted to Mallon, who had no interest in taking the lead and, despite winning the fast heat, Mallon finished just 4th. After a long day, Mallon still had to anchor the DMR, which he did reasonably well, pulling South into the medals, but leaving them out of the top all-state spots like Weller before him.
Others have tried distance triples (3 races of 800m or more), but few have been perfectly executed. Connor Harriman went for the mile-8-4x8 triple to try and help Pennsbury in the team title battle, but struggled in the individuals before killing it on the relay. TJ Hobart also tried a similar triple (but anchor the DM) and was a non factor in basically all events.
But with the new order, 4x8-open 8-DMR (not anchor I'd imagine) would be a very doable triple, although it would take a truly special runner to pull this out. Tucker Desko, Rock Fortna and Jaxson Hoey have jumped out as early contenders for this type of triple although I doubt any will actually go through with it. I'm not sure Pennridge will run an "A" squad in the DMR because of Desko individual chops and their 4x4 upside. Fortna and CBW strike me as a team willing to sacrifice individuals for the relay double. My early hunch is they will chase a double gold and Fortna will need to be at full strength if that is the case. Hoey seems most likely, especially considering DTW could be right in the thick of state title talks team wise. Plus he has teammates who would be able to help carry the load in the DM and keep him a bit more rested. But Hoey is probably better off pursuing the mile title, the event he won during outdoors, and DTW may be better served focusing on winning the DM rather than spreading themselves thin trying to handle both relays. It's worth noting that the 4x8 is stacked right now (at least in my opinion) and considering it's the first event, I have no idea which teams would even consider scratching it if they have a qualifying time.
The doubles are much more feasible historically. There have been many notable mile-8 doubles, some incredible, some big struggles. Wade Endress's double gold in 2011 jumps to mind as a huge success along with Sam Ritz's absurd double last year 4:09-1:51. Even lesser known names like Austin Cooper have really impressed running both races. The mile-3k double, another very difficult double, has proven to be doable for the right type of runner. Besides Weller in 2007, Ben Furcht pulled it off nicely in 2009 despite getting outkicked in both events. Max Kaulbach ran 4:15 to win the mile and came back for 3rd in the 3k in 2008, under 8:40. Tony Russell almost pulled it off in 2013 as well and ran two excellent races, but fell off a bit on his final lap.
Doubling from individual events to relays was fairly common, especially for the DMR. Almost all the state champs in the DMR have had at least one doubling piece. In some ways, the DMR has proven that saving up for a relay could be overrated. Of course, the 3k-DMR double has very, very few success stories and the 3k-4x8 double was even harder. It used to be impossible to do both the 3k and a relay which is part of why we used to see so many top guys run the mile instead.
Of course, not to beat a dead horse, the game has changed once again this season. The 3k-DMR is now even more impossible (sorry Nick Dahl), but with teams now loading up 4x8s at the front of the meet in addition to the individuals, maybe it makes more sense to save up for the DM.
The individual doubles have not changed in difficulty, so we should see the usual top tier guys chase it. Kolor seems like a logical bet to go after the mile and the 8, although who knows considering he has said his focus may end up being the shorter distance this winter. Hoey could certainly try the mile-8 double as well, although this seems less likely considering his relay corps. Same is true for Tucker Desko. Matt Wisner would likely do a good job as well, but I can't imagine this kid's focus won't be entirely on the 800.
And there is still plenty of mystery around Jake Brophy of CB East. The 3k is fairly wide open thus far, with many of the top times coming from guys who are celebrating their first season under 9 minutes in their career. Kujdych, Kirshenbaum and Galligan have never even qualified for outdoor states individually and did not contest the 3k at indoors last year either. The same is true for Henry Sappey, another sub 9 man and Seth Slavin who converts to sub 9 based on his 2 mile at the armory. Brophy could potentially win that race even on the double from the mile/4x8 as things currently stand. But the key phrase there is "as things currently stand". Wolk is still lurking after his triple gold, as is Nate Henderson. Plus maybe we see a Hoey or two try the race and I doubt we have heard the last of Henry Sappey in this event.
And then there is Dominic Hockenbury. Let's not forget about the most dangerous runner in the field, hungry to claim the indoor 3k title for AA. We haven't seen anything from him just yet this season, but after his 11th place finish at regionals last year and his heartbreaking loss to McGoey in 2015, you know the guy is gonna be ready to go.
But the key is, this year in PA, no matter where you go, you can't avoid top competition. It's a great year for a great state. So does that mean you want to maximize your chances at success by running multiple races? Or focus all your energies into one event to try and get the most out of your trip?
That's the million dollar question and the question I will continue to try and answer as we zip through the year! Keep killing it PA, I'm having fun watching you guys run.
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