2018 States - AA Preview

AA – Individuals

The discussion here starts (and quite possibly ends) with Jonah Powell. The Grove City senior has been tremendous over the course of his entire career. Since the time he was a freshman, he was competing for a district championship in one of the best districts in the state. Last year he was third at the state meet in the fall before nearly stealing the AAA 1600m state title during outdoors. So even the large school guys know that Powell can hang. The funny thing is that Powell has historically struggled a bit at districts (he shockingly missed states as a soph and was out of the mix as a junior) so the fact that he dominated this past weekend should be very scary for his competition.

Of course, Powell has not been blemish free in 2018. Josh Lewis of North East won Foundation by 15 seconds over Powell as part of a monstrous stretch that also featured a strong performance at McQuaid. Lewis (the D10 A champ last fall) is still hunting for his first XC state medal despite some impressive results throughout his career. He reminds me a bit of the story of Brendan Miller’s rise last year in terms of his prowess without that big break at states (Miller went on to take 2^nd in XC and 1^st in the outdoor 32). I can’t get a good read on what Lewis’s district meet means for his state title odds, but perhaps he is just, ironically, pulling a Jonah Powell and he will bounce back to have a huge day at states.

Every once in a while there’s a guy who is supposed to be a year or two away from his big breakthrough who ends up surprising everyone with their moment of triumph. That may end up the storyline for Juniata’s Garrett Baublitz. The junior has consistently improved after what was a monster start to his career as a freshman (district champ, sub 4:20). Baublitz has incredible mile speed, boasts a top 10 finish from last state meet and proved his clutchness again last spring. Plus, he was only a second behind Powell at Foundation and could probably give the fellow miler a run for his money in a kick to the finish.

There’s actually a long list of guys who likely are and should dream about state gold. Mark Brown of Greensburg Salem, the WPIAL champ, certainly has a chance if things break right. Mtichell Rome of Dallas already has a team state gold and could be a contender to add an individual title after a District 2 championship. Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing was absolutely fantastic in sloppy conditions at Big Spring, running 16:18 for a district gold. He too already has state gold in the form of a team title he won just last year. Kuhn’s aggressive front-running style (on full display against Jack Miller at Paul Short) means he is fearless and that’s the kind of runner you have to be if you are going to spring the upset and win states.

General McLane has three awesome guys on their payroll, two of which (Nate Price and Erik Andrzejewski) were state medalists last year. Andrezejewski has actually been a top 20 guy each of the past two seasons. But I think most people expect Dylan Throop to be the squad’s title contender as the sophomore is in the middle of a monster stretch and is having is coming out party right before our eyes.

Some other, more sleeper type guys, including Patrick Stevens of Meadville (really like his chances at a medal), Zach Kohler of Tyrone (I think states could be even better for him than districts) and Bryce Zapusek of Holy Redeemer (second in a district like D2 usually means good things). I’m also watching Zach Conner of South Fayette because that team always seems to save their best for states.

The top freshman spot looks like it is going to go to Jacob Hess of Lewisburg who likely has more aspirations than just tops in his class. The freshman nearly won the district title against Alejandro Quintana this past week and, on paper, is a threat for top 10 in the state. We have rarely seen a freshman finish that well in AA (usually they end up in the 20s at best), but just last year Colton Sands showed us that top 10 is possible.

Don’t sleep on frosh Cole Adams from York Suburban. This kid is on a well coached program, racing with a guy who was top 10 at states last year (Jarrett Raudensky) who may just find the right buttons to press when it matters most. I actually really like York Suburban as a sleeper in the team title mix as well. But more on that later on.

		Name		Grade	School	District
1	1	Jonah	Powell	Sr	Grove City	10
2		Garrett	Baublitz	Jr	Juniata	6
3	2	Mark	Brown	Sr	Greensburg Salem	7
4	3	Josh	Lewis	Sr	North East	10
5		Aiden	Weber	Sr	Harbor Creek	10
6		Mitchell	Rome	Sr	Dallas	2
7		Logan	Horst	Sr	Lancaster Mennonite	3
8		Nate	Price	Sr	General McLane	10
9		Dylan	Throop	So	General McLane	10
10	4	Ben	Kuhn	Jr	Wyomissing	3
11	5	John	Koons	Sr	Notre Dame GP	11
12		Van	May	So	Bedford	6
13	6	Cameron	Binda	Sr	Greensburg Salem	7
14		Patrick	Stevens	Jr	Meadville	10
15		Jack	Aulbach	Jr	Blackhawk	7
16	7	Dylan	Binda	Sr	Greensburg Salem	7
17	8	Jacob	Hess	Fr	Lewisburg	4
18		Alejandro	Quintana	Jr	Loyalsock	4
19		Erik	Andrzejewski	Sr	General McLane	10
20		Zach	Kohler	Sr	Tyrone	6
21		Aidan	Doherty	Jr	Archbishop Carroll	12
22	9	Jarrett	Raudensky	Sr	York Suburban	3
23		Dan	Ford	Jr	Quaker Valley	7
24		Nick	Fetzer	Jr	Westmont Hilltop	6
25	10	Bryce	Zapusek	Sr	Holy Redeemer	2
26		Zach	Conner	Jr	South Fayette	7
27	11	Cole	Adams	Fr	York Suburban	3
28		Zach	Buckner	So	Fairview	10
29		Gage	Krall	Jr	Northern Lebanon	3
30	12	Tobias	Jones	Jr	Grove City	10
31	13	Zane	Courtwright	Jr	North East	10
32		Derek	Lawler	So	Mount Caramel	4
33	14	Joey	Bujdos	Sr	Indiana	7
34	15	Peter	Lantz	Jr	Lewisburg	4
35		Jacob	Eshelman	Sr	Franklin	10
36		Shane	Cohen	Sr	Lower Moreland	1
37		Jake	Martinez	Sr	Palmerton	11
38	16	Joseph	Somora	Jr	Grove City	10
39	17	Anthony	Litrenta	Jr	New Castle	7
40	18	Josh	Diehl	Sr	Wyomissing	3
41		Nathan	Yoder	Sr	Lancaster Mennonite	3
42		Levi	Hale	Sr	Hamburg	3
43		Cejay	Walker	Sr	Somerset	6
44	19	Ishmael	Kirkwood	Sr	Big Spring	3
45		Stephen	Postupak	Sr	Scranton Prep	2
46	20	Ryan	Vargo	Sr	Wyomissing	3
47		Damein	Moser	Jr	Warrior Run	4
48	21	Ohm	Vyas	Sr	Central Cambria	6
49	22	Thomas	Foster	Jr	Wyomissing	3
50		Shane	Artis	Jr	Salisbury	11

AA – Team

Grove City is a powerhouse. Whether they were classified in AA, AAA or anywhere, they have been a powerhouse. They’ve produced some stand-out stars like Jacob Kildoo, Dan Jaskowak, Aaron Benka and Ryan Budnik. They’ve had monster teams that have been within inches of the state gold. They were 2^nd in 2012, 5^th in 2013, 2^nd in 2014, 5^th in 2015 and 5^th in 2017. Now, after all those near misses, this may finally be their time for gold: in both the individual and the team race.  They have a terrific pack behind a monster front runner, they won the Foundation meet and they seasoned themselves in arguably the best district in AA over the past two seasons. This feels like it may be their time.

But Greensburg Salem probably feels like it’s their time too. Two years ago, when the sophomores Brown, Binda and Binda were just coming into their own, GS was the WPIAL champ and had dreams of toppling two literal dynastys for state gold in Dallas and York Suburban. But the young team wasn’t quite ready for that stage and they finished last among the WPIAL schools. Last year, GS barely even made it to the state meet, surviving their district championships by fractions. But at states, they showed what a monster top 3 can do and took 7^th overall, tops out of all WPIAL schools. This year feels like the logical conclusion to the trilogy. The monster top 3 is all back and better than ever. The pack is experienced, hungry and strong. Mason Jobe has been phenomenal the past few meets and Ethan Kelley has been a heck of a find as well. Quintin Gatons and Dominic Zucco aren’t afraid to run with their pack and, particularly Gatons, is a really nice insurance piece.

I feel like this race is going to be another crazy last mile similar to last year. I’m not sure there are 4 teams in the mix like there were last year, but I could see Grove City getting out to an early lead and Greensburg Salem making it interesting as they try and run them down on the final mile. If GS’s top 3 is clicking, they’ll have 3 medalists and a big lead. At a meet like the state meet, front running is much more valuable than your traditional meet because the talent at the front is that much deeper. However, depth still matters and Grove City has that in bunches.

Of course, the team that could throw a wrench into all of this is York Suburban. Over the past 4 seasons, YS has been 1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd and 2^nd at the state championships. They’ve turned over the roster and always found ways to compete. But this year was sure to be their toughest test. They lost the heart of their team in Bryce Ohl (second at states last year) and I guess the lungs of the team in Josh Kerr and Tanner Haynes. Now I’m no doctor, but if you have a heart transplant and a double lung transplant your odds of survival are probably not good. However, YS has found a way to reload. They’ve added two great freshman (both top 10 in D3) to go along with their returners from last year’s varsity in Raudensky, Jordan Ohl and Andrew Paskey. Raudensky, historically one of their best guys, was their #7 at districts and they still won easily against the defending state champs from Wyomissing. If Jarrett can come back with his usual spark, we are looking a sleeping giant.

Behind these three teams? Things get kinda crazy. A lot of people have been high on Lewisburg and its not hard to see why. They’ve got a young core of guys who know how to run fast, led by Junior Peter Lantz. This team looks like the young Dallas squad that won states a few years back. Their top 3 is very formidable with Hess, Lantz and Bailey, but they will need to produce at the 4-5 spot to get into the title discussion. Personally, I think these guys are a year away, but sometimes guys come up a year early and surprise you.

You have to respect the reigning state champs. Wyomissing returns 3 top 50 finishers from last year and another potential top 50 guy in Ryan Vargo. If you put 4 guys in the top 50, you’re in the discussion for a state title. The key will be getting a step up performance at #5. It doesn’t need to be anything super human, just a strong race that picks off stragglers from the other teams. We saw Harbor Creek use a formula like this to nearly win a state title each of the past two years. I expect this squad to run well (they have the swagger of guys who have done it before), but they will need to have another perfect day to get on the podium.

Here are my two favorite sleepers to make something happen: Indiana and Holy Redeemer. Looking at Indiana, they look like they have a dangerous pack. They have a long list of guys who can step up and fill a role. Honestly, they have a little bit of a build similar to Wyomissing’s team last year although they may have the top level firepower that squad had which they will need to get on the podium. Maybe the better comparison would be to a 2015 Bishop Shanahan squad that was 3^rd in the state (nearly 2^nd) without any state medalists and most guys around 50^th or so place. Indiana was the WPIAL champs last year, but struggled a bit at Hershey. If they follow the Greensburg Salem mold I mentioned earlier, that means this season is going to be a strong one for them on the hills.

As for Holy Redeemer, they really rolled through District 2 with 5 guys in the top 10 overall. Now I’ll be the first to admit that without Dallas dropping 5 top 50 guys into the mix, the talent pool isn’t quite the same as it was in year’s past, but we are still looking at a historically strong group of teams and coaches and Holy Redeemer took care of business against them. They still need to prove they can run the Hershey hills well which is something they’ve struggled with at times, but I like the way Lukas Volpetti has stepped up in recent weeks, I think Dominic Capaci could be a bounce back candidate and I feel like this pack is very dangerous. Again, this is a team like Shanahan in 2015, peaking at something similar to Wyomissing in 2017 which makes them contenders to surprise.

Here are my team picks:

10. Central Cambria

9. New Castle

8. North East

7. Wyomissing

6. Lewisburg

5. Indiana

4. Holy Redeemer

3. York Suburban

2. Grove City

1. Greensburg Salem