2018 States - AAA Preview

AAA – Individual

Early in the season, Zach Kinne was the guy. He was drawing Nate Affolder comparisons, winning at Foundation and Paul Short and establishing North Allegheny as a contender. Kinne’s taken a few small hits, but he’s still the same guy who dominated in the early season. He just happened to get caught using an aggressive style on a course that can hit back if you try and go too fast too soon. The real question is, mentally, how will he handle that race. I’m hopeful that it doesn’t impact him and we can see him chase a fast time on this course, but you never know.

Regardless of how Kinne bounces back, I’ve got this weird feeling that Dan McGoey is going to run away with this race. For whatever reason, my gut says McGoey could pull off a Jake Brophy-esque junior performance. If you don’t remember (you probably don’t) as a junior, Jake Brophy ran 15:24 on the old state layout and put about 15 seconds on everyone else in the field to win the state title and smash the course record (all in the last mile or so). McGoey just seems locked into me, I think he’s going to run clutch and I think he has the ability to close hard after a reasonable start. In my eyes, somebody will make this race quick and McGoey can hang in the pack and use his strength to close them down.

I think Christian McComb may finish as District One’s top guy. I just believe in the Boyertown magic. Jason Weller (2^nd districts, 1^st states), Mark Dennin (2^nd districts, 1^st states), Brett Kelly (5^th districts, 3^rd states) and then the awesome races from McComb and Derafelo last year make me think McComb is going to bounce back and surprise this weekend. Plus, I think this race will be quicker than the District meet started which could further help out McComb. He’s in my top 3.

Patrick Anderson is an interesting name. I’ve respected this kids heart since his stretch run to close out his sophomore season and he’s been racing all year with the top two guys in the state. He beat both of them at Tri States and, although he couldn’t hang on at WPIALs, proved he’s fearless. He won’t let anybody get away early and he might have the strength to close them down. But he too is going to need to be mentally strong as he had a rough finishing stretch of his own last week.

Interesting to see what Ketler will bring this weekend. He was 6^th last year, but wasn’t even his team’s #1 guy until this past week at WPIALs. But that was the case last year too and the guy turned it on perfectly for the stretch run. Ketler is a senior in a field where many of the top names are juniors. You can’t count out that extra seasoning and feel for the moment. He’s won a state championship before in the DMR and anchored on some big stages.

The District 1 champion Cole Walker is another name we have to talk about. Historically, the District One champ does pretty well at states. In 2017, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2010 the D1 champ was also the state champ. Cole Walker looked very strong and under control en route to his district win. He’s also proven he can be clutch, running a monster 3200 for a state medal last spring. Walker has great track speed and that was sure to translate to Districts, but states at Hershey will be a different animal. But Walker’s talent is undeniable and he certainly could steal the championship. He’s in my top 5, but I’m just a little worried about his experience on this kind of stage.

Ultimately, I think this is going to be a WPIAL heavy race, assuming they can survive the tough conditions they have run in the past two weeks. Christian Fitch is a top 10 threat, Sam Owori is always a factor, Peter Costentino’s consistently has been impressive and Leachman, Marmol, Kaulbaugh and others have proven they are medal threats. In terms of top talent, I think the WPIAL will show their strength at this meet.

As for District 3, I can’t get a read on these guys at all. There’s been so much flipping around at the top between Dorenkamp, Foster, Wisner, Klingenberg, Knepper, Shields, Miller and Grucelski. And sure I just named everybody in the district, but any of those guy could be the top dog at states! My money is on Wisner because of his years of experience and the fact that Carlisle typically brings their “A” game for states, but you never know. I’m not super high on the D3 teams, but I think the D1 individuals are going to mix it up for some big time medals.

Typically the top sophomore at states is at least in the top 12. The past three seasons, the top soph has placed 3^rd overall which is incredible. I don’t see that happening this year, but Brayden Harris is ultra-talented and could be a top 5 threat if things break right. He won Mid Penns and Districts and was in the mix for the W at Carlisle as well. Plus his teammate has experience peaking for states as Chayce Macknair was a surprise medal winner last fall. Aiden Barnhill is a wild card in the sophomore discussion and is the guy I think may end up swinging the state title in either direction. Odds say we are going to get around 3 sophomore state medalists and West is hoping Barnhill ends up one of them. Uninoville’s McIntyre is the other big name with medal aspirations (and 15:41 is going to get you into that discussion). Dieter Burckes is a fun long shot and maybe even John Zawislak if he recaptures the magic he had at Hershey last year.

One last thing that I found interesting was Henderson’s breakout freshman Gavin Brophy. He ran 16:01.8 to take 24^th at Districts. That kind of time/place combination puts him on a list of elite frosh performers like Carlos Shultz, Jake Brophy and Spencer Smucker (of Henderson) who all went on to be top 30 finishers at states (Smucker got a medal). I don’t want to put that kind of pressure on Gavin Brophy, but he’s a big talent in a good program that may end up in the top 50. He and Calvin Pash are interesting names to watch. The other big name frosh is probably Alex Kane who has been awesome this year and could end up the #1 D11 guy at states if things break right.

		Name		Grade	School	District
1	1	Dan	McGoey	Jr	North Allegheny	7
2	2	Patrick	Anderson	Jr	Mount Lebanon	7
3		Christian	McComb	Jr	Boyertown	1
4	3	Zach	Kinne	Sr	North Allegheny	7
5	4	Cole	Walker	Jr	Unionville	1
6	5	Tyler	Wirth	Sr	Wallenpaupack	2
7	6	Payton	Sewall	Sr	DT West	1
8		Noah	Demis	Jr	North Penn	1
9		Brayden	Harris	So	Mifflin County	6
10	7	Seth	Ketler	Sr	Seneca Valley	7
11		Christian	Fitch	Jr	Fox Chapel	7
12		Chayce	Macknair	Sr	Mifflin County	6
13	8	Sam	Owori	Sr	Seneca Valley	7
14	9	Jack	Wisner	Sr	Carlisle	3
15	10	Vincent	Twomey	Jr	LaSalle	12
16	11	Peter	Cosentino	Sr	Mount Lebanon	7
17		Andrew	Foster	Sr	Ephrata	3
18		Evan	Dorenkamp	Sr	Manheim Township	3
19	12	Isaac	Valderrabano	Sr	DT West	1
20		Brandan	Knepper	Sr	Mechanicsburg	3
21	13	Cole	Driver	Sr	Unionville	1
22	14	Ethan	McIntyre	So	Unionville	1
23	15	Mike	Donnelly	Jr	Haverford	1
24		Zach	Leachman	Jr	Mars	7
25	16	Connor	Shields	Sr	Warwick	3
26		Joey	Litvin	Jr	Lower Merion	1
27		Josh	Lewin	Jr	WC East	1
28	17	Bradden	Koors	Jr	LaSalle	12
29		Luke	Klingenberg	Sr	Cumberland Valley	3
30		Jason	Cornelison	Sr	Cheltenham	1
31		Patrick	Theveny	Jr	Penncrest	1
32	18	Owen	Isham	Sr	State College	6
33	19	Ethan	Maher	Jr	LaSalle	12
34		Zack	Marmol	Jr	Peters	7
35		Tyler	Clifford	Jr	Perk Valley	1
36		Ian	Miller	Sr	Manheim Township	3
37		Rob	O'Brien	Sr	USC	7
38		Dalton	Kalbaugh	Jr	Shaler	7
39	20	Aiden	Barnhill	So	DT West	1
40	21	Dieter	Burckes	So	Wallenpaupack	2
41		John	Zawislak	So	Spring Ford	1
42	22	Paul	Ghantous	Sr	LaSalle	12
43	23	Kyle	Kutney	Sr	CR South	1
44	24	Kevin	Wagner	Sr	DT West	1
45		Nathan	Grucelski	Sr	Conestoga Valley	3
46	25	Andrew	Kollitz	So	North Allegheny	7
47	26	Linus	Blatz	Sr	Owen J Roberts	1
48		Trentin	Overcash	Sr	Chambersburg	3
49	27	Cosmo	Cardone	Sr	Easton	11
50	28	Matt	Zilligen	Sr	LaSalle	12

AAA – Team

I’m surprised to find that my team title race is between DT West and LaSalle. I’ve suddenly moved to counting out North Allegheny after I proclaimed them state favorites on the Hub a few weeks ago. LaSalle’s District performance in what was essentially a very competitive practice was super quick. Those times at Belmont are awesome and they’ve got a really deep top 7. Meanwhile, DT West was great with 4 guys sub 16 at Lehigh which was more than I was expecting (of course that may be the ignorance talking). Both teams really stepped it up when the lights were bright.

I still like NA’s chances to be competitive at the top, but I’m a little worried about Kinne as I mentioned earlier. They need both of their horses to be clicking to knock off these other squads who just have so much depth. I think Kollitz could be a difference maker, but James and Nalepa (and Turkovich and Foody) will be the most important pieces. Typically, you need 4-5 guys around the top 50 to win states. That wasn’t the case last year, but it’s been the case basically every other year since we moved to 3 classifications. Considering the strength of LaSalle and DT West, I’ll be stunned if the winning team doesn’t have all their guys in the top 60 places overall. That’s what NA is up against.

None of these three teams really wowed me at states last year. I thought LaSalle was clearly the best team on paper, but CRN nearly stole the title. If it wasn’t for a big day from Ghantous, LaSalle may have ended up second. DT West was the district champs, but CRN took care of them at states. NA was outside the top 10 overall. So as far as I’m concerned all these teams have something major to prove. Having something to prove is a key positive for each program, but also a mental barrier they need to be ready to overcome.

Unionville is suddenly a really interesting wild card. If you put their performance at districts up against CRN’s performance at districts last year (you know, the team that went on to tie for the state championship), there’s not a crazy discrepancy is there? If Unionville runs to their potential, they can get to 130 or under for points and maybe steal this thing. On the flip side, when CRN showed up to states they were the reigning state champs and had plenty of experience on their side. Unionville is a lot less experienced with a lot less recent state pedigree so I have a harder time believing they leave with a team trophy. James Conway sneaking into the top 40 would be huge, especially if his other teams get on the medal stand. You can talk yourself into a Unionville title pretty quickly, but one off day from one of their stars and they are fighting just to stay in the top 10 (take a look at Henderson 2014 for the team they kind of resemble in my head).

The WPIAL squads will contend and you can be the D1 squads will too. It’s no secret that D1 has a consistent resume of performing on the big stage and the district was deeper than ever this year. CR South has really convinced me they are a dangerous sleeper. I don’t see them cracking the top 5, but they could snipe one of these WPIAL squads who, on paper, have to be ranked ahead of them. And, oh by the way, Seneca Valley and Mount Lebanon weren’t all that far away from North Allegheny at districts. One slip up from McGoey or Kinne and one big day from one of these school’s #5 runner and they could end up the top team from out west.

So like I said in my general info, I projected out the state meet to every runner and I ended up with a tie between LaSalle and DT West at 96 points a piece. We’ve already had ties in 2011, 2012 and 2017 involving a District One team and the Catholic League champs. Could we have another one this year? The trickiest things for me are: is Twomey ready to take a leap and be a top 10 guy at states? His Belmont times say so. Are Barnhill and Valderrabano medal contenders or are they behind LaSalle’s pack? Is Paul Ghantous ready to double down on his clutch race from a year ago with a top 30 finish?

Ultimately, I think the race will be swung by Wagner for DT West or Zilligen for LaSalle those are my guesses. I’m interested to see which guys win that match-up. I’m banking on Wagner having a big day and sneaking into the top 50 plus I have some medals going to two of his teammates and only of the Explorers. But all that still leads to a tie in the final standings. So maybe I should put a little faith in the depth of the defending champions rather than look for excuses to knock them off.

Here are my picks:

10. CB East

9. Owen J Roberts

8. Haverford

7. CR South

6. Mount Lebanon

5. Unionville

4. Seneca Valley

3. North Allegheny

2. LaSalle

1. DT West

It’s harder to be the hunted the hunter. I’ll go with West for the win! Should be fun to get smack talked by all the LaSalle guys during the award ceremony …