Updated Etrain Team Power Rankings: Week 7 (11/2)

By: Garrett Zatlin

PAST RANKINGS THIS SEASON
Preseason (9/11)
Week 1 (9/20)
Week 2 (9/28)
Week 3 (10/5)
Week 4 (10/12)-- No changes
Week 5 (10/19)
Week 6 (10/26)-- No changes
Week 7 (11/2)
Week 8 (11/9)-- No changes
Week 9 (11/16)
Week 10 (12/5)

KEY
·      Bold: Had performance or important piece of news that influenced a strong change in the rankings
·      (#/#): First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before
·      (Weren’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before.
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#25 Eastern Kentucky Colonials (-4/21)
-EKU is typically a program that prospers in the post-season, but after conferences I'm not sure how confident I feel about them right now. They still dominated the Ohio Valley conference with a score of 37 points, but they honestly could've been better.

While I may not be impressed now, we can't count this team out just yet. They came out of nowhere last season to place 3rd at regionals and 2016 is looking like a very similar setup for them.

#24 Air Force Falcons (-1/23)

-The Mountain West title was essentially a three-way battle between Boise State, Colorado State, and Air Force. Each team had three guys place in the top 10, but the race came down to who had the better 4th and 5th man- something Air Force couldn't match. 

The Falcons ended up taking spots 5, 6, 7, 19 and 24 while finishing 3rd overall with 61 points. Their star from last year, Kyle Eller continued to struggle and placed 19th overall. 


Just like Jefferson Abbey, it would take a miracle for Kyle Eller to return to last year's form. BUT if Eller can at least improve on his 19th place finish from this past weekend, then Air Force will have a legitimate shot to make the NCAA championship. 


#23 Georgetown Hoyas (+1/24)

-Jonathan Green didn't run, but the Hoyas still pulled off a much needed (and expected) win at BIG East's. Scott Carpenter was excellent once again as he placed 2nd overall while Bartelsmeyer and Clevenger were 5th and 6th respectively. 

If anything, this was more of a confidence booster before regionals. It's not an exciting victory, but a win is a win.


#22 Washington State Cougars (-3/19)

-The Cougars did finish 5th overall (as predicted), but their score wasn't all that appealing with a total of 136 points. Throughout this season, the Cougar's have been led up front by Michael Williams and John Whelan. But at PAC-12's it was Sam Levora's turn to be the low-stick as he placed 15th overall. The only problem was that guys like Williams and Whelan were further back than expected placing 24th and 26th respectively.

If those three guys can all run their best at regionals, they could shake up the national qualifying picture. They'll just have to hope that their 4th and 5th men come through.


#21 Colorado State Rams (-3/18)

-CSU was favored to win the Mountain West title. But with Jefferson Abbey still struggling and Vennard returning for Boise State, the Rams couldn't pull off the win. I still see this team making nationals, but unless Jefferson Abbey makes a miracle comeback to peak fitness, then Colorado State won't be all that competitive at NCAA's.

#20 Michigan Wolverines (-7/13)

-It was a very long ride back home from Minnesota as the Wolverines had a terrible outing at BIG 10's. Aaron Baumgarten seemed to be the only bright spot for U of M as he placed 6th overall. Connor Mora, on the other hand, was the team's second scorer despite placing 19th.

Michigan had four scorers in the top 30, but their 5th scorer was all the way back in 47th and that just can not happen. This is an experienced team too. Of the 9 varsity individuals allowed to run, Michigan ran 7 juniors and seniors. Hopefully that experience will be able on full display at regionals.


#19 Indiana Hoosiers (+1/20)

-In a conference with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State, the Hoosiers may have had the best top 3 runners at BIG 10's with Crist, Shwartzer, and Veatch placing 3rd, 4th, and 8th.

The only problem? Their 4th and 5th men placed 37th and 40th. We saw the same issue with NC State and Louisville last year as their last few scorers held them back from being one of the best teams in the nation. If Indiana can somehow close that gap then they'll give themselves a chance to make nationals in two weeks.


#18 UTEP Miners (-1/17)

-After facing a very underrated Middle Tennessee State team at Conference USA's, UTEP pulled off the win as expected. We'll have to wait to see them face their next true challenge at regionals.

#17 Boise State Broncos (Wasn't Ranked)

-Upset alert! After an unexciting regular season, the Broncos rallied to defeat Colorado State and Air Force. The Broncos can thank Michael Vennard for the win after he finished his first race since Roy Griak. His 3rd place finish matched with Yusuke Uchikoski's win gave Boise State a score of 41 points to defend their conference title.

Boise State is once again a competitive team with Vennard back in the mix. If Andrew Rafla can get back to top form, then Boise State could end up becoming a top 10 team.

#16 Portland Pilots (-5/11)
-I didn't expect Portland to win the West Coast conference title, but I did expect them to give BYU more of a challenge. BYU burned Portland and the rest of the field by taking spots 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 for a total score of 24 points (21 points better than Portland).

Just like ISU, Portland has made some great improvements. But without an established low-stick, Portland won't be able to get past some of the top programs in the nation.


#15 Iowa State Cyclones (-3/12)

-After a slow opening pace at BIG 12's, I thought Iowa State had a chance to pull off the upset over Oklahoma State. Unfortunately, the difference between them and OKST was that the Cowboys had a tighter pack while ISU's 5th man finished 16th overall.

ISU was ranked 12th last week, but they showed that their not perfect with minor gaps in their pack. Still, they're a talented team that has made a tremendous improvement from years past.


#14 Mississippi Rebels (0/14)

-I thought the race between Mississippi and Arkansas was going to be very close...it wasn't. Arkansas handled Mississippi pretty easily. Still, Mississippi has done enough to stay in the top 15. They have legitimate low-sticks, a tight spread, and plenty of depth. Until they mess up, they'll stay around the 14th spot.

#13 Michigan State Spartans (Wasn't Ranked)

-Did anyone expect Michigan State to contend for the BIG 10 title? They nearly won it with aggressive front-running tactics. The Spartans actually held the first five spots at the mile marker. It was a risky move, but it nearly worked as they were 3 points behind Wisconsin.

I was worried about how the Spartans would perform after TJ Carey left the team. But with Sherod Hardt looking like a true front runner and other young guys like Ryan Robinson, Morgan Beadlescomb, and Jesse Hersha stepping up to the occasion, Michigan State shouldn't be counted out of the Great Lakes title conversation.


#12 Oklahoma State Cowboys (+3/15)

-It was a very slow and tactical race at BIG 12's and a lot of Oklahoma State's top guys didn't run all that well. Sylvester Barus faded to 20th while Josh Thompson couldn't stick with the chase pack and ended up in 7th. Hassan Abdi, however, did place 3rd overall after having to stop to but back on both of his shoes.

Even though some guys struggled, the depth for Oklahoma State came up big as Luis Martinez, Anthoney Armstrong, and Christian Liddell placed 5th, 10th, and 11th respectively. Despite a strong effort from Iowa State, the Cowboys emerged as the top team with a score of 36 points.


Oklahoma State will need to address a few things regarding the consistency of their front-runners before they get to nationals. But with Geberkidane (hopefully) returning at regionals and their depth running as well as they are, things are looking good for the Pokes.


#11 Virginia Cavaliers (+5/16)

-They ran hard from the front in an attempt to break-up a very strong Syracuse pack. That, of course, did not end up working but the Cavaliers still ran very well. Brent Demarest has earned himself a spot in the top 50 rankings while freshman Lachlan Cook is prospering in every race he runs in. With Henry Wynne set to return at regionals, Virginia is looking like a very strong program.

#10 Wisconsin Badgers 
(0/10)

-Wisconsin seems to be back on track as they reclaimed their BIG 10 title with a 3 point win over Michigan State. Malachy Schrobilgen is looking like a strong low-stick once again as Morgan McDonald is making an argument to be one of the top runners in the nation. Others like Olin Hacker are stepping up and providing some support in terms of the scoring. 

They'll need to cut down the gap from their third man to their fourth and fifth runners, but the Badgers are in a good spot right now.


#9 UCLA Bruins (0/9)

-I really wanted to put UCLA ahead of Oregon, but I just don't see Oregon having another collapse like that and I don't think UCLA has quite the fire-power that Oregon has. Still, the Bruins have been super impressive this season. Ferdinand Edman has become a true low-stick while the rest of their scorers have found a way to pack together. If UCLA can cut down the gap between their 4th and 5th man you can bet that their ranking will improve.

The only problem with UCLA is that just like Oregon, they don't have much depth. We all saw what happened this past weekend and how that can be the deciding factor between 1st place and 4th place.


#8 Oregon Ducks (-5/3)

-It was a nightmare performance from Oregon who's lack of depth came back to hurt them. Maton (expected to place in top 10) finished 28th while Anderson (expected to place in top 20) finished 30th. Meanwhile, Prakel had a poor showing of his own as he fell back all the way to 33rd.

Aside from Cheserek, Neuman and Thomet were really the only Oregon Ducks who had half-way decent performances.


In the week 5 team rankings, I put Stanford ahead of Oregon and I mentioned my concerns about Oregon's lack of depth and how that could make them vulnerable. Sure enough that turned out to be the case.


#7 Syracuse Orangemen (-2/5)

-Syracuse desperately needed a rebound race after a Wisconsin performance that they were not happy about. The Orangemen found their groove and packed together to put FIVE in the top 10 for a score of 29 points. If they can keep that pack together at NCAA's, they'll at least have a chance to podium.

#6 BYU Cougars (-2/4)

-Nothing too exciting here as the Cougars packed together to shut down Portland and earn the West Coast conference team title.

#5 Iona Gaels (+2/7)

#4 Arkansas Razorbacks (+2/6)
-It's amazing how the addition of one guy can completely change the dynamic of a team. Chartt Miller (Iona) and Andrew Ronoh (Arkansas) both made their season debut at conferences this past weekend with the results looking promising.

Arkansas had some issues at Pre-Nats with their 5th man placing 53rd. However, with Ronoh now in the mix, Arkansas is a dangerous team that could fight for an NCAA team title if one of the top teams have an off day.


Iona, on the other hand, adds a third crucial low-stick with Chartt Miller which makes this team incredibly strong. Now, the focus will be on Iona's 4th and 5th men which will essentially be the deciding factor as to if Iona gets on the podium or stays off (again).


#3 Colorado Buffaloes (+5/8)
#2 Stanford Cardinals (0/2)
-This might be a bit controversial seeing as Colorado may have just run the race of the season to earn the PAC-12 title. However, there are just way too many weapons on Stanford's program to not give them the #2 spot.

As I mentioned in the top 50 rankings, McGorty had a chance to earn Stanford a team title if he had placed 2nd or 3rd. This would have resulted in Stanford winning by 1 point. That's not to take away from Colorado's win. They had an incredible performance thanks to certain individuals stepping up.


Right now, Colorado is behind Stanford mainly because this is the first legitimate performance of the season. I'm also really high on Stanford's depth which can be a difference maker in a race (see Oregon). If Colorado can put together another solid performance at regionals, they'll move ahead of the Cardinals. 

#1 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0/1)
-Just another day in the office for the Lumberjacks as they took the Big Sky conference title with a 1-6 sweep over a very solid Southern Utah team. They're not invincible, but gosh do they look good.
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Just Missed 
-Southern Utah Thunderbirds
-Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
-Bradley Braves
-NC State Wolfpack
-Penn Quakers

Who To Watch
-San Francisco Dons
-California Golden Bears
-Texas Longhorns
-Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
-Virginia Tech Hokies
-Minnesota Golden Gophers

Kicked Off
-Washington Huskies (Last Ranked 25th)
-Furman Paladins (Last Ranked 22nd)

New Additions
-Boise State Broncos
-Michigan State Spartans

Biggest Surprise of the Week
-Colorado Buffaloes

Team of the Week
-Colorado Buffaloes

Notes
-Colorado wins "Biggest Surprise of the Week" after upsetting winning PAC-12's when they were far from being the favorites.
-Colorado wins "Team of the Week" after defeating three Top 10 teams (Stanford, Oregon, UCLA) at PAC-12's
-Washington gets kicked out of the rankings after a disappointing 7th place finish at PAC-12's 

2016 XC Fantasy Draft

For those who want to participate, we are almost at max capacity. For those who want to follow along with the draft or those who are already signed up for the draft, please check out this post right here on the playground. It breaks it all down.

Update: The draft is in the books. I believe I've properly recorded everyone's teams below but let me know if I messed up your team!

8. Team Team - 158
(1) Noah Affolder, Carlisle
Evan Addison, LaSalle
(20) Matt D'Aquila, Lower Merion
(75) Gabe Sullivan, Pleasant Valley
(25) Sam Early, CR North
(37) Sean Rahill, William Tennent
Shane Ainscoe, Spring Ford

9. ForrestCRN - 224
(2) Nate Henderson, JP McCaskey
Alex Tomasko, Mechanicsburg
(84) Kyler Shea, Lower Dauphin
(27) Eric Kennedy, Kiski
Patrick James, O'Hara
(29) Carlos Schultz, Conestoga
(82) TJ Robinson, North Allegheny

2. MightyMort - 111
(10) Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy
(16) Seth Slavin, Pleasant Valley
(26) Tim Haas, CR North
(21) Amadou Diallo, Allerdice
(38) Yahya Soliman, Cumberland Valley
Josh Higgins, Cumberland Valley
Andrew Sulon, Mechanicsburg

3. Team Shake n Bake - 118
(3) Sam Affolder, Carlisle
Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts
(22) Casey Conboy, Baldwin
(31) Avery Lederer, Penncrest
(34) Seth Ketler, Seneca Valley
(28) Drew Alansky, DT West
Ethan Koza, CR North

1. Ryan1220 - 99
(4) Zach Lefever, Ephrata
(5) Noah Beveridge, Butler
(30) Sam Owori, Seneca Valley
Stephen Paul, LaSalle
(18) Eric Kersten, Pennsbury
Shaun Bullock, DT West
(42) Michael Geiger, Parkland

7. Views from the Seven - 139
(9) Mark Provenzo, Franklin Regional
(13) Morgan Cupp, Mechanicsburg
(32) Gavin Inglis, O'Hara
(35) Austin Maxwell, Kennett
(50) Andrew Sullivan, Hershey
Sean Brown, Roman Catholic
Bobby Lutz, North Allegheny

5. John Seena (the defending champion) - 127*
(8) Ryan James, O'Hara
(6) Connor McMenamin, Souderton
(44) Evan Hutton, William Tennent
(23) Bryan Keller, CR North
(46) Matt Scarpill, CB South
Trey Razanauskus, Seneca Valley
Tayvonne Davis, Allerdice

6. Avon Grove Red Devils - 127* 
(7) Ryan Campbell, CR North
(12) Spencer Smucker, WC Henderson
James Abrahams, Haverford
(17) Jake O'Neill, DT West
(24) Colton Cassell, Lower Dauphin
Sam Morgan, Parkland
(67) Noah Dusseau, Avon Grove

4. OutKickU - 122
(11) Nick Feffer, State College
(14) Isaac Kole, Carlisle
(15) Jared Giannascoli, Lower Dauphin
Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan
Nathan Kaplon, Central Dauphin
(49) Will Griffen, Cheltenham
(33) Jack Wisner, Carlisle


2016 Updated Etrain Top 50 Rankings: Week 8 (10/31)

By: Garrett Zatlin

PAST RANKINGS THIS SEASON
Preseason (7/29)
Week 1 (9/12)
Week 2 (9/19)
Week 3 (9/28)
Week 4 (10/3)
Week 5 (10/10)--No changes
Week 6 (10/17)
Week 7 (10/24)--No changes
Week 8 (10/31)
Week 9 (11/7)--No changes
Week 10 (11/14)
Week 11 (11/21)

KEY
·      Bold: Had a performance or important piece of news that influenced a change in the rankings
·      (#/#): First number indicates how much the individual has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before
·      (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50. Michael Williams, Junior, Washington State (-9/41)
-Williams has been a roller coaster ride of performances this season. He was 24th at PAC-12's which is a bit off where I thought he would be.

Although he hasn't quite been the low-stick for Washington State I thought he could be, he has still been very consistent. His 15th place finish at Wisconsin paired with a few other decent performances is just barely enough to keep him in the rankings.

49. Connor Lundy, Freshman, Princeton (-10/39)
-After a 19th place finish at Wisconsin, it was easy to get excited about the potential this kid has. While he had certainly done better in the big race, he would have to go up against an experienced senior in James Randon to earn the Heps title.

In the end, the more experienced Randon got the best of Lundy. The Princeton frosh fell to 3rd overall in what was still a very impressive finish.

48. Connor Mora, Senior, Michigan (-11/37)
-After his 13th place finish at Pre-Nats, I was convinced Mora would succeed in the post-season. That was unfortunately not the case as faltered to 19th overall at BIG 10's. Like Chemoiywo, I'm going to need another strong performance to know that he's capable of more than one great race.

47. Calvin Chemoiywo, Senior, Louisville (-18/29)
-Compared to Pre-Nats, it was a rough outing for Chemoiywo who placed 14th overall at ACC's. In my previous rankings, I had concerns about Chemoiywo's consistency. Sure enough, his ACC result turned out to be not nearly as impressive as his Pre-Nats performance. I'll need another big race from Chemoiywo to show me that he's not just another one-race-wonder.

46. James Randon, Senior, Yale (Wasn't Ranked)
-The young guy and new faces may be exciting to talk about, but experience and consistency almost always triumphs in the end. I am of course referring to the Heps matchup between Randon and Lundy that resulted in Randon earning the Ivy League title while Lundy faded to 3rd. Randon has now earned 3 wins this season while also placing 42nd at Notre Dame.

Obviously, Randon will need to figure out how to run well at big races like Notre Dame. However, he just pulled out a big post-season win and will now have plenty of confidence heading into regionals. If he is anything like his former teammate Kevin Dooney, then he'll thrive during championship season.

45. Brent Demarest, Sophomore, Virginia (Wasn't Ranked)
-Time and time again, Demarest has impressed me. With Wynne yet to debut and Weaverling not running quite how I thought he would, Virginia needed another low-stick to step up. Of all potential low-sticks, who would've thought that a sophomore would be their ace?

Demarest has slowly improved throughout the season by placing 11th at Panorama Farms, 6th at Penn State National Open, and now 7th at ACC's. He's done enough to show me that he is for real.

44. Jonathan Harper, Junior, BYU (0/44)
-Ran with teammates to secure Mountain West team title. Placed 2nd overall.

43. Dillon Maggard, Junior, Utah State (-3/40)
-He was 4th place at the Mountain West conference which right around where I thought he'd end up. It will be interesting to see how Maggard handles his first ever regionals race in two weeks. According to TFRRS, he has never run at regionals before.

42. Jack Bruce, Senior, Arkansas (+5/47)
-We're starting to see some consistency from Bruce as he placed 4th at SEC's in a wicked fast race. This performance compliments his 12th place Pre-Nats finish quite nicely and shows that he is capable of running more than just one great race. 

41. Antony Kosgei, Sophomore, UTEP (-10/31)
-At Conference USA's, Koech and Boit chased Choge and left Kosgei struggling to handle the pace. He eventually finished 5th overall in a race that wasn't his best. I question if I was initially too high on the UTEP guys after Pre-Nats...

40. Tyler Day, Sophomore, NAU (-2/38)
-Cruised with teammates to sweep Big Sky conference.

39. Malachy Schrobilgen, Senior, Wisconsin (+11/50)
-Wisconsin fans breathed a sigh relief as Schrobilgen was able to finish 5th at BIG 10's. He isn't as strong as he used to be, but this past weekend was a good sign that he's healthy and still fit.

38. Chartt Miller, Senior, Iona (Wasn't Ranked)
-I only took Chartt Miller out of the rankings because I wasn't sure if he would be runing this season. Luckily, he made his season debut at conferences where the Iona men swept the competition.

I can't give a ranking much better than this (for now). Once I see how he does against real competition, I'll adjust his spot.

37. Jason Crist, Senior, Indiana (Wasn't Ranked)
-Crist has done quite a bit for the Indiana Hooisers during his time with them. He's has come up clutch when needed and he did the samething this past weekend as he finished 3rd overall in a highly competitive BIG 10 field.

I don't know why I'm that surprised. Crist has placed in the top 10 all four years that he's competed at BIG 10's. He is someone that gets going in the post-season so watch out for him to make some noise as he attempts to earn his first All-American cross country honor of his career.

36. Sherod Hardt, Senior, Michigan State (Wasn't Ranked)
-Sherod Hardt has been on my radar all season but he couldn't seem to put together the performance that could get him ranked. But after a mind-blowing 2nd place finish at BIG 10's, Hardt has put himself into the All-American discssion. Hardt and the rest of his teammates ran aggressive and from the front which is a risky move on a hilly course like Minnesota's. That, in turn, paid off and the team nearly upset Wisconsin.

Hardt seems to have taken that next step up in being a true-low stick and ace. Now, he'll need to string together a few more decent finishes to ensure that he keeps his spot in the rankings.

35. Cosmas Boit, Senior, UTEP (-1/34)
-Based on the results, it looks like the Boit and Koech knew they wouldn't be able to catch Choge so they ended up crossing the line together. Aside from Choge and a few other Middle Tennesse State runners, there wasn't anything too exciting that came out of Conference USA.

34. Benard Keter, Senior, Texas Tech (Wasn't Ranked)
-If I'm being honest, I completely forgot about Keter in my BIG 12 predictions. That turned out to be a mistake on my part as he took advantage of slow early pace and blasted the second-half of the course to take the win.

Keter probably should've been in the rankings a bit earlier in the season, but this was really his first notable performance. It's tough to gage how good someone is off of one race, but I'm sure we'll get a better idea of his talent level at regionals.

33. Alex George, Junior, Arkansas (+12/45)
-When Alex George earned a victory at Beantown, I didn't think much about it. When he placed 14th at Pre-Nats, I thought that would be the best race of his season.

Now he is an SEC champion and I have learned to not doubt Alex George in 2016. The Arkansas junior didn't just win SEC's, he blew the competition out of the water. With a time of 23:24, George was 9 seconds better than Mississippi's Sean Tobin.

While I am impressed, I would like to see how he does against different competition he's not familiar with. We will probably have to wait until nationals for that one.

32. Matthew Baxter, Rs. Junior, NAU (+1/33)
-Cruised with teammates to sweep Big Sky conference.

31. Yusuke Uchioski, Junior, Boise State (Wasn't Ranked)
-It's taken him some time, but Uchioski propelled himself into the rankings with a huge upset win over Jerrell Mock to win the Moutain West title. It was tough to say how good this guy really was after he was 7th at Roy Griak and 33rd at Wisconsin. This win, however, is a huge resume booster and makes him a legitimate All-American contender.

I do have to point out that this win was on Boise State's home course. We've seen teams this season do very well on their own turf and then falter at other venues. If Uchioski can put together another big time performance at regionals, I will happily improve his ranking.

30. Sean Tobin, Junior, Mississippi (-2/28)
-SEC's was another fast race and just like at Notre Dame, Tobin took advantage of it. He placed 2nd to Alex George in a ridiculously fast time of 23:33. Tobin's leg speed is certainly helping him this season as he seems to have finally shown us what happens when you give a miler some long-distance training.

29. Matthew Maton, Sophomore, Oregon (-6/23)
-It was a nightmare race for Oregon who had their worse finish in recorded history (at least from what I could find online). There were a lot of things that went wrong, but Maton's poor performance was one of the biggest blunders of the race.

Maton, who was expected to finish among the top 10, placed 28th this past weekend in what was arguably the first poor race of his career. I can't penalize him too much for just one off race, but with the most important time of the season rolling around, he can't have this happen again.

28. Aaron Baumgarten, Junior, Michigan (-6/22)
-Having already run at Roy Griak this year, you would've thought that Baumgarten would prosper once more on the hills of Minnesota. Instead, Baumgarten failed to hang with the pack at BIG 10's and was surprisingly dropped towards the end of the race. He finished 6th overall.

His performance is still really solid and something that he should be proud of. However, I think it's safe to say that this wasn't his best race and that he'll be able to rebound at regionals.

27. Luke Traynor, Senior, Tulsa (-1/26)
-Cruised to an easy win at AAC's.

26. MJ Erb, Senior, Mississippi (-2/24)
-It was another nice finish from Erb who was 3rd at SEC's. It wasn't anything exciting, but it's another consistent performance to make me feel better about keeping Erb in the top 30.

25. Harry Mulenga, Senior, Florida State (+7/32)
-I have been a big fan of Mulenga this season. He continues to impress me week in and week out. After some solid performances throughout this season, Mulenga had a breakout race at ACC's this as he stuck with the lead pack during the entire race and ended finishing in 4th place overall. He is a legitimate threat for a top 20 finish at NCAA's.

24. Alex Short, Rs. Senior, San Francisco (+3/27)
-While BYU and Portland battled for the team title, Short took the conference title and earned his first ever post-season victory. It was a great win, but we'll get to see how good he really is at the absolutely loaded West region in two weeks.

23. Scott Carpenter, Senior, Georgetown (-2/21)
-As expected, Carpenter placed 2nd to Tiernan at Big East's. In a year where Green, Clevenger, and Fahy have been either MIA or running poorly, Carpenter has consistently given the Hoyas a low-stick to rally around.

22. Ferdinand Edman, Senior, UCLA (+3/25)
-This season, Edman has placed 8th at Roy Griak, 10th at Wisconsin, and now 5th at PAC-12's.  There have been a lot of breakout stars this year and Edman has proven to be one of them. If he can come up big in the post-season, then he'll win at Zatlin Award come December.

21. Gilbert Kirui, Junior, Iona (-1/20)
-Kirui, along with the rest of his teammates, easily swept the MAAC. The only noteable thing that came out of this race is that Chartt Miller is back which makes Iona a big-time threat.

20. Jonah Koech, Sophomore, UTEP (-8/12)
-After not running at Pre-Nats, Koech returned to the Conference USA meet where he was upset by Middle Tennesse State freshamn Jacob Choge. The last time we saw Koech, he was 5th at Notre Dame. It was a solid finish, but it could've been better.

This past weekend was Koech's chance to redeem himself with a win over Choge. That, of course, did not happen and we are now questioning another top-tier athlete if they can match their fitness from 2015.

19. Frankline Tonui, Senior, Arkansas (-2/17)
-How does someone place 2nd at Pre-Nats, but only 5th at SEC's? I've worried about Tonui's consistency before and I think this just goes to show why that's a valid concern. He is still an incredibly talented runner, but his Pre-Nats performance indicates that he could've won a conference title.

18. Colin Bennie, Junior, Syracuse (-3/15)
-Colin Bennie has been running incredibly well...just not as well as last year. Bennie was 5th at ACC's, but fell of the pack that was chasing Kibichiy. I'm not sure 2015 Colin Bennie would've let that happen.

Bennie just doesn't seem to have the same kind of edge he did last year. He hasn't been able to stick with the chase packs and his close hasn't been as strong as we are used to seeing. Still, he's doing his part and is still putting together some solid results.

17. Jacob Choge, Freshman, Mid. Tenn. State (+19/36)
-The freshman phenom continues to shake up the rankings of the NCAA's elite. Choge took down UTEP's Jonah Koech to take the Conference USA title this past weekend. He won by a decent margin and has done enough in my mind to earn a top 20 spot.

Plus, a lot of the guys in the top 20 just weren't doing it for me.

16. Nicholas Montanez, Senior, BYU (+3/19)
-Nothing too exciting from the BYU boys as they packed together to earn the team title. Montanez was 6th.

15. Jerrell Mock, Junior, Colorado State (-4/11)
-I didn't think much of Mock's 29th place finish at Wisconsin and I still considered him the favorite to win the Mountain West conference. Unforunately, he continued to miss expectations and came up short this past weekend as he failed to defend his title (was runner-up).

Maybe they're just going through a tough block of training, but with Jefferson Abbey already struggling Colorado State needs their ace to step up and perform at his highest level. We'll see if Mock can bounce back at regionals in two weeks.

14. John Dressel, Sophomore, Colorado (-1/13)
-PAC-12's seemed to prove the theory that Colorado could've run faster Pre-Nats. Dressel had a clutch performance as he finished 6th overall in the crowded field of elite talent.

The Wetmore Factor is alive and well within this Buffalo. If Dressel continues to peak in the post-season like he did last year, then he could be the x-factor that decides the team title at NCAA's.

13. Amon Terer, Senior, Campbell (+5/18)
12. Lawrence Kipkoech, Rs. Sophomore, Campbell (+4/16)
-They both crushed the competition and crossed the line together. It's wasn't anything exciting, but when you consider how the others around him have been performing, there hasn't been much of a reason to say that these guys shouldn't be ranked any better or worse.

11. Ben Saarel, Senior, Colorado (+3/14)
-After an unexciting finish at Pre-Nats, Colorado gave their first all-out effort of the season which was led by Saarel. The Colorado senior finished 3rd overall in the incredibly deep field and reestablished himself as one of the top runners in the nation.

After struggling with injuries the past few months, Saarel has found a way to bounceback and be competitive once again. Hopefully, we'll see him and Dressel a bit closer and regionals/nationals.

10. George Parsons, Senior, NC State (0/10)
-Parsons tried a different approach at ACC's this past weekend and hung back just a little more than usual. When the time came, he wasn't able to catch Kibichiy and had to settle for 3rd place.

I guess he was just trying a new tactic, but I thought he would maybe pursue Kibichiy a little earlier in the race. It was still a solid performance nonetheless and he'll have another shot at Kibichiy during regionals in two weeks.

9. 
Kieran Clements, Rs. Senior, Iona (0/9)
-One of the most underrated runners in the nation, Clements went back to work this weekend and earned a win at conferences. He cruised in with his teammates to earn the sweep and the team title. It will be interesting to see how closely he stay with Knight at regionals in two weeks.

8. 
Edwin Kibichiy, Rs. Senior, Louisville (0/8)
-You've gotta commend the gutsy performance from Kibichiy at ACC's. Knight pulled away at the end, but it was an honest race thanks to Kibichiy and he was rewarded with 2nd place as well as finishing ahead of George Parsons.

7. 
Sean McGorty, Senior, Stanford (-2/5)
-Just another slightly sub-par day from McGorty and he knows it. He fell back to finish 7th overall at PAC-12's. Had he placed 2nd or 3rd, he would've pushed Colorado's Dressel, Saarel, and Perrin each back one place. In that scenario, Stanford wins the PAC-12 title.

It's hard to say that a guy who placed 5th at Wisconsin and 7th at PAC-12's is having a poor season. I'm sure he was hoping to be bit better than that and to compete for the win, but even with those finishes he's still one of the best runners in the nation.

6. Grant Fisher, Sophomore, Stanford (0/6)
-2nd place to Cheserek at PAC-12's and beating out his teammate Sean McGorty (again). If it were any other year, Fisher would be in the top five. Unfortunately, this year is filled with top-tier talent and Fisher is just waiting his turn. I will say that I love the progression he has made and his consistency in his two races so far makes me a fan of his.

5.  Morgan McDonald, Junior, Wisconsin (+2/7)
-I figured that a bit of tactical race at Wisconsin and that was the reason I thought McDonald did so well (due to his track speed). But the junior showed that he could do it all as he grinded through the hills of a tough Minnesota course to earn himself and his team the BIG 10 title. He's given me little reason to doubt him and I think he has to be put in the top five after this weekend.

4. Futsum Zienasellassie, Rs. Senior, NAU (0/4)
-Futusm led his team to a 1-6 sweep at Big Sky. His next real challenge will come at regionals (Mountain) where he'll have to face the Colorado boys, Jerrell Mock, a slew of other talented individuals.

3. Justyn Knight, Junior, Syracuse (0/3)
-Cool, calm, and relaxed. Knight waited out and hawked down Kibichiy to easily take the ACC title. He's certainly at another level now and could be gunning for the Tiernan's number two spot if regionals goes well.

2. Patrick Tiernan, Rs. Senior, Villanova (0/2)
-A lot of attention is going to Cheserek this weekend for winning 4 conference titles. But no one else is realizing that Tiernan just did the same thing after his victory at the Big East championships this past weekend. It was a dominant performance as usual from the Aussie and a nice way for him to make his season debut.

1. Edward Cheserek, Senior, Oregon (0/1)
-Just another day at the office. The Oregon senior put together another effortless performance to win his 4th and final PAC-12 title. This is his world and we are just living in it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just Missed 
-Hassan Abdi, Junior, Oklahoma State
-Ryan Forsyth, Sophomore, Colorado
-Zach Perrin, Junior, Colorado
-Rory Linkletter, Sophomore, BYU
-Thomas Ratclife, Freshman, Stanford
-Michael Ward, Junior, Bradley
-Matthew Schwartzer, Rs. Senior, Indiana
-Jacob Thomson, Rs. Junior, Kentucky
-Joel Hubbard, Senior, Syracuse

Who To Watch
-CJ Albertson, Senior, Arizona State
-Tanner Anderson, Sophomore, Oregon
-Cerake Geberkidane, Junior, Oklahoma State
-Nick Tuck, Senior, Penn
-Joe Klecker, Rs. Freshman, Colorado
-John Whelan, Senior, Washington State
-Evan Stifel, Junior, Ohio State
-Miguel Bautista, Junior, Texas Tech
-Josh Thompson, Senior, Oklahoma State
-Euan Makepeace, Freshman, Butler

Kicked Off
-Jacob Thomson, Rs. Junior, Kentucky (Last Ranked 30th)
-Colby Gilbert, Junior, Washington (Last Ranked 35th)
-Philo Germano, Junior, Syracuse (Last Ranked 44th)
-Brian Barraza, Senior, Houston (Last Ranked 45th)
-Josh Thompson, Senior, Oklahoma State (Last Ranked 48th)
-Jonathan Green, Junior, Georgetown (Last Ranked 49th)

New Additions
-Benard Keter, Senior, Texas Tech
-Yusuke Uchioski, Junior, Boise State
-Jason Crist, Senior, Indiana
-Sherod Hardt, Senior, Michigan State
-James Randon, Senior, Yale
-Brent Demarest, Sophomore, Virginia

Biggest Surprise of the Week
-Benard Keter, Senior, Texas Tech

MVP of the Week
-Edward Cheserek, Senior, Oregon

Notes
-Benard Keter earns the "Biggest Surprise of the Week" after winning the BIG 12 title while being unranked.
-Edward Cheserek earns the "MVP of the Week" after winning his 4th consecutive PAC 12 title.
-Jonathan Green did not run and is therefore kicked out of the rankings.
-Brian Barraza has not run attached at all this season and did not run at conferences. This means that he is most likely redshirting.

AAA XC Top 50 Preview

The AAA state title seems to have been reserved for Noah Affolder almost since his arrival in the state of Pennsylvania. The defending Footlocker Northeast Regional Champion defeated one of PA’s all-time greats in Jake Brophy last year under the New York flag indicating his potential. And he hasn’t disappointed. He has set PA records in every race he has run in 2016 including a 14:47 at Carlisle and a 15:17 at Big Spring.

Affolder’s biggest competition will likely come from his district rival Nate Henderson of JP McCaskey. Henderson has given Affolder his best dual, running his own legendary sub 15 time at Carlisle. He has an extra bit of experience on the state course that comes with back to back state medal winning performances as a sophomore and junior. But Henderson isn’t the only name that comes to mind. District One Champ Rusty Kujdych has been fairly dominant in his last three races, including districts. Mark Provenzo of Franklin Regional, the WPIAL Champ, has been equally dominant and is undefeated on the year against District One competition. We also have Ryan James of O’Hara, the PCL Champion and Foundation Invitational winner. Technically speaking, he sits as the course record holder as we enter the state championships on the slightly adjusted Hershey course.

I’m interested to see exactly how this race plays out. It sounds like Affolder won’t be playing any games at the front, but I’m interested to see if he goes after it from the gun. A year ago, everyone sort of defaulted to Jake Brophy and the pace was a bit more reserved through two miles opening up the door for a wild dash to the finish, especially for 4th through 10th place. If we end up in a similar circumstance this year, that opens the door for some kickers to sprint into the top group, including Noah’s brother Sam Affolder.

Sam and Zach Lefever of Ephrata are a pair of other top names that deserve some recognition. They were the 4th and 3rd finishers at districts. Lefever is a fantastic talent who earned his first state medal last spring with a clutch 3200 PR. He’s looking for his first XC state medal after an appendectomy caused him to miss his chance a year ago. Affolder is looking to join a rare club of top 10 state finishers as a sophomore. Last year, we saw Josh Hoey pull it off with a third place finish, the best sophomore finish since 2005. Could we see history two years in a row? I have this sneaky feeling that Noah and Sam could end up taking 1-2 in this race if things break right.

I’m super high on Ryan Campbell and Spencer Smucker. A pair of guys who know how to peak, come from great programs and have run the Hershey course well in the past. Smucker seems to be rounding into form at just the right time and gaining the confidence he needs to crack the top 10 for the first time. Ryan Campbell looked fantastic at districts, nearly breaking 15:30. His brother was 7th at states as a junior (and so was former CRN stand out Ross Wilson) and Ryan has been better than him at this stage in his career on the trails.

Seth Slavin is an interesting name out of District 11. He’s been dominant against the District 11 competition lately, but how will he transition back to the state's top competition this year? He just missed a state medal last year and then crushed the regional championships.

I’m trying to make up for lost time with the WPIAL. I’ve got four of their guys in the medals this time around including Sam Owori of Seneca Valley at 25th. For whatever reason, I feel like we are going to have more than one sophomore medalist (even if we had just one as recently as 2013 with Jake Brophy). Owori, based on his Foundation run and his team behind him, is my logical pick for this slot. His teammate Seth Ketler may be your next best bet. Owen Isham of State College, Jack Wisner of Carlisle and Mike Morris are the other sophomores I’ve got hovering outside the top 50. If Wisner or Isham can somehow crack that top 50, it’s huge for team standings.

Carlos Schultz of Conestoga leads the way for a talented freshman class that could end up outdoing the sophomores when all is said and done. That being said, it’s rare for a frosh to crack the top 50 let alone the medals. It’s just a big stage for those guys. Other freshman to watch include Dan McGoey, Zachary Leachman and Christian Fitch who are all from the WPIAL. McGoey qualified with a North Allegheny squad that will lean on him as a possible front runner in their tight knit pack. He runs hills well. Two of his best races were Hershey and Tri-States.

A couple other things I look for when making predictions are experience, who runs the course well and who is paired off. For example, Avery Lederer of Penncrest has not ever raced on the Hershey course as far as I know, however, Matt D’Aquila and James Abrahams both have contested it (D’Aquila has a pretty nice resume on this course as well). Since Lederer has raced with those guys all season, I think he could gut it out with that duo and they could push each other to a medal. Gabe Sullivan of Pleasant Valley, teammates with two time top 50 finisher Seth Slavin, is an intriguing sleeper pick for the same reason.

District 8’s Amadou Diallo has had an awesome year. District 8 hasn’t had a medalist in a while (Ean DiSilvio was the last one) and Diallo is the best guy we’ve seen since Ean. He finished just outside the top 50 last year, but this year he earned an individual district championship and has high team goals that will rely on a big finish from their #1.

Sleeper picks for the medal stand would be Jake O’Neill from DT West, Austin Maxwell from Kennett, Sam Morgan from Parkland, and Sean Brown from Roman Catholic.

AA XC Top 50 Preview

by Jarrett Felix

Check out the full top 50 list by clicking here

AA

I think the AA state championship race will be the closest finish of the three and produce the first drama we have seen in this class since Vinny Todaro won the title in 2012. Now Zach Skolnekovich will be the favorite. He has won three straight district titles, was second at his last two state championships and defeated arguably his best competition last weekend in Ben Bumgarner.

But I need to pick an upset in one of these three classifications. And just like last year, I’ve opted to pick against the AA title favorite. I think Bumgarner is going to pull this one out. I think he runs the Hershey course better than he runs Coopers and that might be enough to help turn the tables on Skolnekovich. I also think that with Isaac Davis in the field, things could get out a little faster than Coopers and help keep the pressure on Zach early. The thing is, Zach has a great kick so he will be dangerous coming off that final hill. That’s what makes it so hard to pick against him.

You may have heard me mention Isaac Davis like 30 seconds ago? Well Davis won the Foundation Invite by setting a fast early pace. Davis struggled at the end of the District 4 championships so hopefully he’s healthy and ready to go after a second straight top 10 finish. His decision to either push the pace or sit in could dictate much of what happens the rest of the way.

I’m a big fan of Quinn Serfass of Loyalsock. He ended up winning that District 4 title and seems to be ascending at the right time. Also have to like the potential of District 2 champ David Haines. He was well under 16 at Paul Short and watched his teammate Matt Kravitz win a state title last spring. Maybe he learned a thing or two about upsets. Remember District 2 has won the last three individual titles in AA and won the A title in 2012. 

Interesting team title implications for the medalists here, probably more so than any of the other three races. There seems to be a large concentration of front running talent in medal contention. You have Jack Zardecki of Dallas, York Suburban’s pack which includes Bryce Ohl and Jarrett Raudensky, and Greensburg Salem’s trio of Mark Brown, Frankie King and Cameron Binda. Throw in my sleeper picks from Harbor Creek (Ryan Stravaggi, Aiden Weber and Christian Babo) and you have a fun puzzle to piece together. 

Considering last year was one of the best ever freshman groups in the state, we should have our fair share of sophomore medalists this year. The question is, which guys are ready to deliver under pressure? I’ve got 7 sophomores right around my top 30 overall finishers as things currently stand. That includes a ton of sophomores right in the thick of that state championship picture.

Keep an eye out for Somerset’s duo of Dominic Mazzierello and Cejay Walker. The pair has been pretty dominant against local competition and could be serious medal threats this season. We saw District 5 runners excel in this classification before, most notably Will Kachman of Bedford.

Patrick Stevens of Meadville is my early pick for top freshman. We’ve seen freshman medalists each of the last two seasons so we will see if Stevens can keep that streak alive or if another frosh will step up and steal the spot. Another one of those freshman to watch is District 6 champion Garrett Baublitz of Juniata who came out of nowhere to win that district’s championship. 

Personally, I will be most interested to see which district ends up housing the most top 50 runners. District 2, District 3 and District 7 all have cases to be made, but District 10 showed some real depth as well. Meanwhile, District 11 and District 6 may prove to be underrated by yours truly in the rankings.

A XC Top 50 Preview

This championship has a chance to be very wide open. Tristan Forsythe won the Foundation Invite earlier this season, but his teammate Ben Littman ended up winning the district championship at Coopers this past week. Littman has looked phenomenal in recent weeks and has proven himself a clutch runner. But Forsythe could still come back and grab gold this weekend considering his speed and his knowledge of arguably the state title favorite and his strategies.

District 10 champion Connor Walsh also made a strong case for the state title this past weekend. He dominated what has historically been a strong district that included two other top 10 finishers from last year’s state meet. Walsh was 4th last year, but seems hungry for the title this time around. Does he have the finishing burst to win the title? Does he have the strength to take things early and run away from the field? That’s the question he will need to answer on race day.

Speaking of finishing bursts, Ryan Thrush of Brookville continues to hang around as a sleeper pick. The District 9 champ beat a slew of top names including Cranberry’s returning state medalist and Elk County Catholic’s proven star Zach Wortman. He also has 48 second 400 meter speed! That makes him an x-factor in this race to say the least. He was 3rd at Foundation behind Forsythe and Littman.

The defending champion, Griffin Mackey, has slipped by under the radar most of this season. He hasn’t raced much, but he came back just in time to help his team qualify for states. He’s got a little bit of Ryan Gil potential. Gil was the 2010 state champ who overcame a serious foot injury to, first, run at districts and finish 4th, and then surprise everybody en route to the state championship. Mackey was 4th at his district meet behind three guys from the same team (just like Gil ironically) so maybe he will stun everyone at states and win the title.

Personally, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from District 4 champ Casey Ellis of Northeast Bradford. He seems like a sleeper. And what will the Montrose guys out of District 2 do? Zack Mead won their district title and the Montrose boys swept the top 3 spots overall. They are a sleeper team, especially if they post three top 30 finishes.

From the sophomore class, Ethan Knoebel of Southern Columbia has shown a lot of potential to sneak into the medals. He ran well at the Foundation Invite and held his own against the NEB duo at districts. The Smethport duo of Darian Gregory and Christian Tanner will also contend for a top spot in their class. Jack Miller of Jenkintown, who has the extra bonus of having qualified with his team, might be the best bet for top soph when all is said and done.

I really want to see who ends up the top guy from District 3. Ian Gabig was bested at districts, but has championship pedigree from his runs last year. Brenden Miller of Upper Dauphin came out of nowhere to win the district title at Big Spring and looked amazing. He may not know just how good he is which could be a big advantage (or, I suppose, a big weakness). 

Keep an eye on the District 11, District 5, District 6 and District 12 guys. I’m interested to see if anyone from those districts sneaks into the medals. It would be stunning for all three districts to be shut out of the medals, but as of now I’ve got only District 6 even having top 50 finishers. However, Colwell and Cunkleman both have great medal shots. Don’t sleep on Cunkleman as a medal contender, trying to rebound from a lower finish at districts than he likely had hoped.

Post-District Takeaways: District 3

by Blake Behney

Districts offered us some exciting action across the state, and D3 was no exception. Here are some things that stood out to me after saturday’s meet at Big Spring.


Noah Affolder Looks Invincible
No wisdom teeth, no problem for Noah Affolder. The Herd senior has passed every test with flying colors this season and the story was no different this time around. His winning time of 15:17 was a new course record by 10+ seconds and he did it with uncanny ease. In his post-race interview, he said that his first two miles were around 10:05 before he dropped the hammer and ran away with it. Affolder says his goal is a national title, but that he also wants the individual and team titles in Hershey next weekend. We’ll get to the team race in a bit, but it seems inevitable that he’ll have that individual gold hanging from his neck.


Wisner Comes Through in the Clutch
Carlisle put together a strong showing, winning the district title with 106 points, 46 points ahead of second place Lower Dauphin. As the case has been all season, the Herd’s top 3 led the way with some really strong efforts. After Noah’s victory, Sam Affolder came in 4th at 15:47 with Isaac Kole finishing closely behind him in 6th at 15:51. However, the story of the meet for Carlisle was #4 man Jack Wisner, who ran a gutsy race to finish 24th in a big PR of 16:24. The Big Spring course is no joke, and neither is that time.  It has to be comforting for the Herd to see another piece of the puzzle coming together at the perfect time. Before the season I thought Wisner would be a little closer to Kole and that he’d be a potential medal threat at states. His season up to districts seemed a little underwhelming until word came out that he was a little banged up. It seems he’s finally back on track, but the question of whether the Herd still have the components to take down CRN’s pack (and the other team title threats) still looms. States are gonna be fun.


And the Final State Berth Goes to… Manheim Central?
I’m just gonna come out and say that I completely underestimated Manheim Central and that they weren’t really on my radar in terms of state qualifying standards. I wasn’t really familiar with their team besides Cole Sunderland, who I considered to be more of an 800 specialist. Well, he proved me wrong by displaying his versatility, along with the rest of their squad this past weekend. The Barons put 4 guys under 17 at a tough course and beat out perennial powers like CV, Hershey, and league rival Hempfield for the final state berth. Color me impressed. And they proved their win at LLs was no fluke either.


4-Peats Everywhere
The team battle in the smaller classifications was the same story as the previous 3 years: York Suburban winning in AA and Camp Hill winning A. Suburban’s entire top 5 medaled individually, led by Bryce Ohl and Jarrett Raudenski’s 2-3 finish. Even with senior Peter Wagner having a bit of an off day, they still looked dominant and like they belong in the tier of state title contenders with Greensburg Salem, Harbor Creek, Grove City, and Dallas. As for Camp Hill, the Lions scored a measly 35 points to run away with their 4th straight title. Ian Gabig led them in 3rd place overall with Dan Shank and Pat Dorsey also grabbing medals, finishing 5th and 10th. I’m not really sure what to expect of the Lions’ at states. Given their situation with a number of dual-sport athletes, it’s tough to get a read on them during the regular season. One thing I am sure of is Coach Haywood having them ready to go at states. As we saw last year, he’s sort of an expert at that kind of thing.


Can Anybody Stop Joe Cullen?
Another weekend, another W for Joe Cullen. I’ve already raved about this kid, but he just keeps on winning. There’s only been one race this year that he hasn’t won, which was Foundation where he finished second. Cullen took control of this race from the start and held off the Suburban boys for the win. I’m boldly slotting him for a top 5 finish at states at the moment considering he ran 16:30 at Hershey earlier this season and has consistently come up big in the clutch. Also, Wyo freshman Ben Kuhn nabbed the final medal in AA, running 17:18. Future stud alert. Overall, it was a good day for Wyo who looks like they could be a real threat to contend for an AA state title in the near future.


Brenden Who?
The biggest upset of the day in my opinion occurred in Class A. I’m pretty sure just about everyone had Ian Gabig from Camp Hill winning this one. There were some other contenders, like Morgan Morrison, Caleb Sneller, and Dan Shank, but it was going to take the races of their lives to beat Gabig. Coincidentally, a couple guys ran the races of their lives. The eventual victor was someone who I didn’t even know ran cross country or was even in Class A: Brenden Miller of Upper Dauphin. I remembered racing him on the track last spring at districts where he ran 4:36 in the 1600 and 10 flat for 3200, but this race was clearly a huge fitness breakthrough for him. His winning time of 16:29 would’ve won AA and put him in the top 30 for AAA. For comparison, Will Greene from Delone Catholic ran 16:27 here last year for second place and went on to finish 8th at states. So, I’m buying Miller’s chances as a state medalist with a ton of upside. Sneller ran a huge PR for the course (16:33) to take second ahead of Gabig (16:46) who still ran a great race despite not getting the result he wanted. Both guys have a great chance at grabbing medals at states and Gabig, who has been a little banged up, has top 10 potential if healthy. An under-the-radar effort in this race came from Morgan Morrison. The West Shore Christian senior PR’d in 17:01 for 4th place, and his improvement in recent weeks has made him a smart sleeper pick for a state medal. Overall, I feel like Class A really showed out this year and hope they can put that on display at states.


Feel free to offer some states-related discussion and predictions in the comments below.