Updated Etrain Team Power Rankings: Week 9 (11/16)

By: Garrett Zatlin

PAST RANKINGS THIS SEASON
Preseason (9/11)
Week 1 (9/20)
Week 2 (9/28)
Week 3 (10/5)
Week 4 (10/12)-- No changes
Week 5 (10/19)
Week 6 (10/26)-- No changes
Week 7 (11/2)
Week 8 (11/9)-- No changes
Week 9 (11/16)
Week 10 (12/5)

KEY
·      Bold: Had performance or important piece of news that influenced a strong change in the rankings
·      (#/#): First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before
·      (Weren’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before.
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#25 Navy Midshipmen (Wasn't Ranked)
-It pains me to kick Air Force off this list, but I'm happy to put another military program in our top 25. Navy has impressed a lot of people this season and even had our very own Jarrett Felix predicting that they would make nationals. 

While most predicted Penn to get the 2nd auto-qualifying spot, Jarrett was right (once again). Navy got a spot to nationals thanks to a very deep and condensed pack that was led by their low-sticks Lukas Stalnaker and Ryan McCoy. 

The last time Navy went to the NCAA championship was 1997. It may have been a long time ago, but the formula hasn't changed for how to be successful at the Big Dance. You need a clear and established front-runner (preferably two) and a tight pack with depth to them up. Navy has all of the aspects of a successful program and we'll get to see it in action this weekend. 

#24 Washington State Cougars (-2/22)
-"Good enough" seems to be the general mindset I have for WSU this season. They've done just well enough this season to get some Kolas points and get them through a very tough West regional meet. It hasn't always been pretty, but they continue to get the job done. 

Michael Williams and John Whelan continued to keep their team afloat with their 17th and 18th place finishes. The rest of their pack held up just enough to get the Cougars the 5th spot in the region and a trip to nationals. At NCAA's, plenty of 5th man problems get exposed. Luckily for Washington State, it seems like they have enough support for that to not be an issue.

#23 Georgetown Hoyas (0/23)
-They won the Mid-Atlantic title without Jonathan Green, but this was also a meet that was theirs to lose. Luckily, after a year of letdowns and disappointments, the Hoyas were able to take away some positives from this meet such as...

-Scott Carpenter still being an All-American caliber runner. 
-Michael Clevenger showing a glimpse of promise after placing 6th in the region. 
-Christian Alvarado looking like the future low-stick of this team after placing 11th as a sophomore. 
-The last few scorers being within close proximity of each which means that they shouldn't expect a drop in the score if someone has a bad day.

At this point, Georgetown is just trying to get through the NCAA meet. They have enough pieces to be competitive, but they lack the fire-power I thought they would have at the beginning of the season.

#22 UTEP Miners (-4/18)
-When looking at their regular season results, I questioned whether or not UTEP had enough Kolas points to get to nationals if they didn't beat Colorado State. My math must've been off because they placed 5th behind CSU and still made it in to the Big Dance along with Southern Utah in 6th place. However, the biggest takeaway from their race had to be the fact that they had little to no support for their final scorer.

Just as I mentioned in earlier rankings, UTEP was a strong team upfront, but lacked help behind those guys. If somehow had a bad day, it was going to heavily show in the score. Sure enough, that turned out to be the case with UTEP taking spots 2, 13, 19, 29, and 59. They're a good team, just not a complete one.

#21 Boise State Broncos (-4/17)
-Well...that was ugly. I had high hopes for the Boise State Broncos when they came into the West region this year. They had been getting better and better with each race, found a low-stick in Yusuke Uchikoshi, and were returning ace Michael Vennard. What wasn't to like? 

Apparently there was plenty not to like. Boise State didn't place a single individual in the top 20 and lacked a strong time spread. They took spots 21, 39, 41, 55, and 67. Michael Vennard was a DNF for the 2nd time this season. This resulted in the Broncos placing 7th in the team standings and narrowly beating 8th San Francisco by TWO points. Had they lost to San Francisco, I'm not sure if they would have made it...

Yet, even with their awful performance Boise State somehow still made the NCAA meet. How? I have no idea, but it looks like they did enough in the regular season to earn the Kolas points necessary to get into nationals.

I don't expect them to have another race like that, but this was definitely not a great sign.

#20 Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (Wasn't Ranked)
-It takes five runners to have a complete cross country team (Indiana will tell you six). Tulsa had one of the most surprising races of the season and nearly upset Oklahoma State...if they just had a capable 5th man. 

The 'Canes took spots 1, 10, 11, 12...and 55. That 5th man hurt a lot and gave a very vulnerable Oklahoma State team plenty of room for error. If we're ranking teams by their top 4 runners, then Tulsa is easily in the top 10. Unfortunately for them, that's not how this sport works.

#19 NC State Wolfpack (Wasn't Ranked)
-Race of the year? Unranked NC State entered regionals with three sophomores and a loss to Virginia after ACC's. So what do they do? They shock the field by putting FOUR in the top 20 and defeating UVA by 15 points. It was an incredible win by a team that had been forgotten up until now.

Columbia transfer, Aubrey Myjer, had one the best races of his career by placing 10th while Sebastian Hanson found what he had been missing all season and placed 17th. They have a strong top four and could really surprise a lot of people at nationals. However, they will need to address their fifth man (Elijah Moskowitz) who was back in 39th place. 

#18 Colorado State Rams 
(+3/21)
-CSU needed to beat UTEP if they were going to feel comfortable about their qualifying chances and they did just that (barely). The Rams took 4th place overall in the Mountain region and did enough to beat UTEP by only 6 points.

Colorado State did well upfront by taking spots 9, 18, and 21, but were a little shaky with their final two scorers as they placed 32nd and 34th. Their last few scorers have typically been a bit closer in the results and they will try to get back to that point at nationals.

#17 Iowa State Cyclones (-2/15)
-A really sub-par day from ISU had me scratching my head. The Cyclones finished a surprise 4th with unranked Illinois ahead of them in 3rd place by 7 points. ISU put only two runners in the top 20 and their 5th man settled for 44th place overall. What happened? 

The Cyclones haven't been perfect all season, but they're better than 4th in this region. I imagine they just did enough to get through to nationals knowing that they had the Kolas points on their side. I expect a tighter pack at nationals.

#16 
Indiana Hoosiers (+3/19)
-See Michigan State (#13)

#15 Virginia Cavaliers (-4/11)
-The Cavaliers were upset by an unranked NC State team, secured the last auto-qualifying spot by only 1 point, Henry Wynne didn't run, and their top runner Brent Demarest had the worst race of his season. Tough weekend, huh?

Although there were plenty of problems, they can only go up from here. Demarest had a really poor day and I think he will certainly rebound at nationals. He's shown up all season and I think he'll do it again at NCAA's. 

It does, however, look like Henry Wynne won't be running at NCAA's and that definitely hurts their ranking since that's what was holding them up for most of the season.

#14 Mississippi Rebels (0/14)
-It was a walk in the park for Ole Miss as they were able to soundly beat a respectable Middle Tennessee State squad by 15 points. The Rebels had a great pack and took spots 7, 8, 9, 10, and 12. However, their 6th man finished 35th overall in what is typically considered a weak region. Ole Miss will need to hope that their pack continues to stay close at nationals if they want to succeed. 


#13 Michigan State Spartans (0/13)
-It was an absolute thriller at the Great Lakes region this past weekend. Not for the regional title, but for the last auto-qualifying spot which came down between Indiana and Michigan State. 

Indiana relied on their low-sticks while MSU was spread pretty evenly throughout the field. The result ended with Michigan State and Indiana TYING at 81 points with the Spartans winning the 6th man tie-breaker and a trip to nationals. 

The Hoosiers were sent home and did not make NCAA's after losing the 2nd qualifying spot by literally 0 points. Absolutely heartbreaking. 

I'm still high on Michigan State, but that was a scare they were not expecting. 

#12 Oklahoma State Cowboys (0/12)
-They won the Midwest region as expected and did so with two great low-sticks in Josh Thompson and Hassan Abdi placing 2nd and 4th respectively. Unfortunately, there was a pretty significant gap after those two with the next three Cowboys placing 15th, 20th, and 23rd. That'll work in places like the Midwest region, but not so much at nationals. 

I would be more optimistic if Geberkidane was coming back, but right now there is no sign of that happening. 

#11 Oregon Ducks (-3/8)
#10 Portland Pilots (+6/16)
-The Pilots were a pleasant surprise this past weekend as they upset UCLA for the 2nd automatic qualifying spot in the West region. Ever since Roy Griak, I haven't seen anything too exciting from Portland but this certainly makes up for it. 

Oregon, on the other hand, has been seriously regressing. After winning Pre-Nats, they were 4th at PAC-12's with Washington State 36 points behind them. This past weekend, they were 4th again, but with the Cougars only 21 points behind this time. Oregon has one of the best 1-2 punches in the country, but their depth has crumbled as they rely more and more on younger guys to support the team. That is not a good thing when you're a week out from nationals. 

#9 Wisconsin Badgers 
(+1/10)
-I thought the Spartans would upset the Badgers...I was terribly wrong. Wisconsin took care of business in the Great Lakes region after freshmen Olin Hacker and Ben Eidenschink placed 8th and 21st (respectively) in their best races of the season. Joe Hardy was sandwiched between them in 15th place overall.

It also helped that Schrobilgen and McDonald took the first two spots, but it was expected for them to place well within the top five. 

#8 UCLA Bruins 
(+1/9)
-UCLA has been impressing me so much this season and I might be underrating them considering their body of work. Unfortunately, they didn't have their best day ever at regionals as they were upset by Portland for the 2nd auto-qualifying spot. The Bruins still got into NCAA's with Kolas points, but their usually close pack wasn't nearly as tight as we saw at PAC-12's. 

This is a very experienced team and although they aren't perfect, I expect them to regroup at nationals and thrown down a very strong time spread.

#7 Iona Gaels (-2/5)
-It's great to see Chartt Miller back in the line-up, but it's only exciting if he's paired up with Clements and Kirui. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see Kirui race this weekend as he did not seem to be in the lineup. I imagine they are just giving him a little bit of rest before nationals as they have done before. Still, it would've been nice to see him in the results.

But Kirui isn't necessarily why Iona dropped out of the top 5 teams. Liam Dee and Jac Hopkins were the 3rd and 4th scorers for Iona while juniors Brandon Allen and Johannes Motschmann were the 5th and 6th runners for the Gaels.

I don't love the gap between these these two pairs and I don't like that the younger runners are outrunning the more experienced guys. That creates more vulnerability at nationals when you pressure an underclassman into a scoring position. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but I think it's a legitimate reason.

#6 Syracuse Orangemen (+1/7)
-It was a nice confidence booster for the Orangemen as Knight and Bennie went 1-2 in the Northeast region. Aouani, Germano, and Hubbard filled in the rest of the top 10. I would've like those three be a bit closer to Knight and Bennie, but that's just me being picky.

#5 Arkansas Razorbacks (-1/4)
-They packed together and did their job by placing 4 in the top 10. The only problem was that their 5th man was 20th in a relatively weak region. That's not a great sign heading into nationals and one of the biggest reasons why I am dropping them to #5 in the rankings. 

#4 BYU Cougars (+2/6)
-Just as many predicted, BYU had to settle for 3rd in the ultra-competitive Mountain region (they still made nationals). Overall, they ran very well by taking spots 4, 15, 17, 20, and 23. If they want to be a podium team at nationals, that pack from 15 to 23 will need to continue to stay close and collectively chase down other individuals of teams that are podium threats.

#3 Colorado Buffaloes 
(0/3)
-See NAU (#1)

#2 Stanford Cardinals (0/2)
-Stanford took care of business in the West region without Thomas Ratfcliffe in the lineup. Fisher and McGorty seemed to be taking it easy while the veterans of Keelan and Sweatt had another great day. 

I'm not surprised by how well they ran, but now the question becomes "who do they run at nationals?" They've got 9 guys that could make the lineup and it's tough to say who that will be. Is Coach Milt going to start four underclassmen at nationals (Fahy, Hurlock, Ratcliffe, and Ostberg)? Or we will he take a more cautious approach and start veterans like Keelan, Sweatt, and Wharton?

He could start a mix of both, but two of those guys I just mentioned will not be toeing the line. 

#1 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0/1)
-NAU did what they had to do at the Mountain region where they put five in the top 30 and secured the regional title with 60 points. It was a great performance from the Lumberjacks, but they only beat Colorado by 16 points. That was with Saarel in 25th place and Forsyth and in 27th place. If those two run like they did at PAC-12's then the Buff's could have very well upset NAU.

I like both of these teams right now and I think they will both have a chance to win the team title (a little less so for Colorado). Saarel and Forsyth's performance are keeping me cautious on their ranking, but they can only go up from here.
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Just Missed
-Bradley Braves
-Air Force Falcons
-Furman Paladins
-Texas Longhorns
-Minnesota Golden Gophers
-Eastern Michigan Eagles
-Michigan Wolverines

Who To Watch
-Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
-California Golden Bears
-Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Kicked Off
-Eastern Kentucky Colonials (Last Ranked 25th)
-Air Force Falcons (Last Ranked 24th)
-Michigan Wolverines (Last Ranked 20th)


New Additions
-NC State Wolfpack
-Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
-Navy Midshipmen

Biggest Surprise of the Week
-NC State Wolfpack

Team of the Week
-NC State Wolfpack

Notes
-NC State wins "Team of the Week" & "Biggest Surprise of the Week" for upsetting heavy favorites Virginia while being unranked and doing it with three sophomores in their lineup.
-Bradley may not have made NCAA's, but they had an outstanding season and should be very proud of what they accomplished this season. The same goes for Furman who missed nationals by 1 point after redshirting their top three runners this season. That's just incredible coaching from Coach Gary.

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