2016 Updated Etrain Top 50 Rankings: Week 3 (9/26)

By: Garrett Zatlin

PAST RANKINGS THIS SEASON
Preseason (7/29)
Week 1 (9/12)
Week 2 (9/19)
Week 3 (9/28)
Week 4 (10/3)
Week 5 (10/10)--No changes
Week 6 (10/17)
Week 7 (10/24)--No changes
Week 8 (10/31)
Week 9 (11/7)--No changes
Week 10 (11/14)
Week 11 (11/21)

KEY
·      Bold: Had a performance or important piece of news that influenced a change in the rankings
·      (#/#): First number indicates how much the individual has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before
·      (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50. Nick Tuck, Senior, Penn (0/50)

49. Michael Williams, Junior, Washington State (0/49)

48. Luke Traynor, Senior, Tulsa (-6/42)
-It wasn't the best day for Traynor at the Cowboy Jamboree. He finished 4th behind a trio of solid talents, but this was field where he could've earned himself an early-season win.

47. Iliass Aouani, Sophomore, Syracuse (-3/44)
-After a dominant performance at Spiked Shoe, we saw Aouani in a much faster field at Panorama Farms where he finished 12th. He was 4th at 5k, but when Knight made his move to catch Kipkoech, the group followed and Aouani was caught by a barrage of teammates and BYU Cougars.

I still believe he's a top 50 talent, but Aoanui is used to cruising through less competitive races during his time in the south. Give him some time to adjust to the new competition and he'll continue to impress us throughout the season.

46. Jack Bruce, Junior, Arkansas (-1/46)

45. Brian Barraza, Senior, Houston (+2/47)
-Barraza got a nice win over Jacob Thomson at the Texas A&M Invite. He won by nearly 20 seconds which goes to show that he's definitely in excellent shape. He was, however, running unattached. Does that mean he's going to be redshirting this season? I suppose time will tell...

44. Jaime Perales, Senior, Eastern Kentucky (-1/43)

43. Andrew Rafla, Rs. Sophomore, Boise State (-3/40)
-After Mock got the win, Rafla was the next top 50 runner across the line finishing in 24th place. It was a respectable finish but like many of the others at Roy Griak, the conditions really made things difficult to gage.

We'll be seeing Rafla again at Pre-Nats and when we do, I'm expecting a better performance than what we saw this past weekend.

42. Nicholas Montanez, Senior, BYU (Wasn't Ranked) 
-When four top 15 teams meet up for a season opener, you know it's going to be fast. Sure enough it was a quick one at Panorama Farms and Montanez ended up as the most pleasant surprise of the race. The senior stuck with a fast pace and held his position throughout the entire race. It was a great display of poise when you consider that he was facing 9 other ranked individuals from our week 2 rankings.

41. Matthew Schwartzer, Rs. Senior, Indiana (0/41)

40. Aaron Baumgarten, Junior, Michigan (Wasn't Ranked)
-Baumgarten had no fear at Roy Griak. He was very gutsy and stepped up as the top runner when Ben Flanagan wasn't in the lineup. Baumgarten attacked the pace and made it a race for the grinders. He's shown a lot of promise the last few seasons, and I expect we'll see more impressive performances from him later on.

39. Matt Welch, Junior Minnesota (Wasn't Ranked)
-Matt Welch is the biggest new name to burst onto the national scene after Roy Griak. Welch took advantage of his home course on a sloppy day and threw down an incredible kick to catch Aaron Baumgarten in the final stretch.

Welch definitely impressed me with that kick especially coming off of those energy draining hills. However, running in his own backyard is a HUGE advantage compared to some of the other guys who had off days. I want to see how he does later on, but he came up big when it counted.

38. Frankline Tonui, Senior, Arkansas (0/38)

37. Travis Neuman, Senior, Oregon (+2/39)

36. Michael Vennard, Junior, Boise State (-4/32)
35. Dallin Farnsworth, Sophomore, BYU (-4/31)
-These two seem to be very similar runners of similar talent levels. They both had sub-par days with Vennard placing 37th at Panorama Farms and Farnsworth placing 32nd at Roy Griak.

What's interesting about Farnsworth is that he took the race out pretty slow and slowly made progress throughout the rest of the race. Maybe it was a poorly executed race plan, but his pacing shows that he may have been holding back.

34. Joel Reichow, Senior, South Dakota State (0/34)
-Reichow was one of the six top 50 runner to run at Griak. Yet, like most of the other top-tier runners, he didn't run quite up to par. He finished 35th overall on a day where mud and poor course conditions played the biggest role. His performance certainly could've been better, but it wasn't as terrible as Lafond or Abbey so I'll cut him some slack for this week.

33. Darren Fahy, Senior, Georgetown (+4/37)

32. MJ Erb, Senior, Mississippi (+4/36)

31. Ben Flanagan, Senior, Michigan (+4/35)

30. Jacob Thomson, Rs. Junior, Kentucky (-9/21)
-The Texas A&M Invite was headlined by Jacob Thomson and Brian Barraza of Houston (who was running unattached). It should have been a close race, but Barraza shut down Thomson by 19 seconds to get the win. The Kentucky Wildcat has been a bit unimpressive lately when you consider his runner-up finishes to Barraza and Erik Rotich.

29. Colby Gilbert, Junior, Washington (+4/33)

28. Philo Germano, Senior, Syracuse (+2/30)
-Germano attacked the pace and finished a respectable 7th place Panorama Farms. He's showing that he's not a one season wonder and will probably end up being that solidified third man for Cuse. Time will tell, but it's a solid start.

27. Kieran Clements, Rs. Senior, Iona (+2/29)

26. Gilbert Kirui, Junior, Iona (+2/28)

25. Micheal Clevenger, Rs. Senior, Georgetown (0/25)

24. Amon Terer, Senior, Campbell (+3/27)
-While teammate Lawrence Kipkoech gets the spotlight for taking the pace out hard, Terer gets some love for his impressive 3rd place finish. It was a talented field and Terer still handled the fast pace pretty well. Even after placing 3rd, he's still one of the top runners in the nation.

23. Chartt Miller, Junior, Iona (0/23)

22. George Parsons, Senior, NC State (0/22)

21. Dylan Lafond, Senior, Illinois (-4/17)
-Lafond was just another top 50 runner who was the victim of a big field on a messy course at Roy Griak. Watching the live feed, he was towards the front for most of the race, but was clearly uncomfortable for most of it. By the time he approached the last kilometer, he was starting to fall back. He ended up in 104th. It was just simply an off day for Lafond who will almost definitely finish much stronger in future races.

20. Kyle Eller, Senior, Air Force (0/20)

19. Lawrence Kipkoech, Rs. Sophomore, Campbell (+5/24)
-He didn't get the win, but when you run against Justyn Knight that rarely happens. Kipkoech put together a gutsy performance by trying to pull away from the field at the 5k mark. Although that didn't work, he still shut down the rest of the field as well as his teammate Terer. He's been consistent and I have to commend his ability to grind out a fast pace.

18. Morgan McDonald, Junior, Wisconsin (+1/19)

17. Henry Wynne, Senior, Virginia (+1/18)

16. Ben Saarel, Senior, Colorado (0/16)

15. Jefferson Abbey, Senior, Colorado State (-3/12)
-Just like Lafond, a lot of top-tier runners struggled and I don't think that this weekend was a completely accurate representation of the fitness that some of these guys are in. I have to bump Abbey down a little bit, but don't get used to seeing him placing 91st all of the time.

14. Jacob Burcham, Senior, Oklahoma (0/14)

13. Edwin Kibichiy, Rs. Senior, Louisville (+2/15)

12. Colin Bennie, Junior, Syracuse (-3/9)
-Not the best day for what should be a top 10 runner. The pace was fast from the gun and it stayed that way with Kipkoech keeping it honest. He was 6th place overall which is still respectable, but a top 10 runner can usually cover big moves like that.

11. Jerrell Mock, Junior, Colorado State (+2/13)
-Mock put together one of the smartest races of the weekend at Roy Griak. The pace was sporadic and the conditions were sloppy. But Mock bided his time and came up with a win thanks to a big move at the end. Based on Week 2's rankings, Mock was the only top 50 runner to place in the top 20 at Griak.

10. Malachy Schrobilgen, Senior, Wisconsin (+1/11)

9. John Dressel, Sophomore, Colorado (+1/10)

8. Jonah Koech, Sophomore, UTEP (0/8)

7. Jonathan Green, Junior, Georgetown (0/7)

6. Grant Fisher, Sophomore, Stanford (0/6)

5. Sean McGorty, Senior, Stanford (0/5)

4. Justyn Knight, Junior, Syracuse (0/4) 
-What an incredible race by Knight. The Syracuse front-runner showed off his tremendous strength by grabbing a big win at Panorama Farms. At 5k, Lawrence Kipkoech had an 8 second lead on Knight and the rest of the field. But even that wasn't enough as Knight not only caught up to Kipkoech, but put on a 16 second lead of his own to win the race. It was an incredible display of fitness and shows that he's at another level right now.

3. Futsum Zienasellassie, Rs. Senior, NAU (0/3)

2. Patrick Tiernan, Rs. Senior, Villanova (0/2)

1. Edward Cheserek, Senior, Oregon (0/1)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just Missed 
-Harry Mulenga, Senior, Florida State
-Antibahs Kosgei, Senior, Alabama
-Alex Short, Senior, San Francisco
-Joel Hubbard, Senior, Syracuse 
-CJ Albertson, Senior, Arizona State
-Clayton Young, Sophomore, BYU
-Ryan Robinson, Sophomore, Michigan State
-Sylvester Barus, Junior, Oklahoma State
-Cerake Geberkidane, Junior, Oklahoma State

Who To Watch
-Erik Rotich, Sophomore, Eastern Kentucky
-Jacob Thomson, Senior, Oklahoma State
-Jacob Choge, Freshman, Mid. Tenn. State
-Casey Comber, Freshman, Villanova
-Troy Fraley, Senior, Gonzaga
-Jake Leingang, Senior, Oregon
-Joe Klecker, Rs. Freshman, Colorado
-Chase Weaverling, Junior, Virginia

Kicked Off
-Chase Weaverling, Junior, Virginia (Last Ranked 50th)
-Cerake Geberkidane, Junior, Oklahoma State (Last Ranked 25th)
-Joel Hubbard, Senior, Syracuse (Last Ranked 46th)

New Additions
-Nicholas Montanez, Senior, BYU
-Aaron Baumgarten, Junior, Michigan
-Matt Welch, Junior, Minnesota

Biggest Surprise of the Week

-Jefferson Abbey, Senior, Colorado State

MVP of the Week
-Jerrell Mock, Junior, Colorado State

Notes
-Abbey gets "Surprise of the Week" for his unexpected lack-luster performance at Roy Griak. He came into the race as the defending champ and finished in 91st.
-Jerrell Mock wins "MVP of the Week" for running a very smart race and earning a win on a sloppy and crowded course.
-Oklahoma State coach Dave Smith indicated that Geberkidane was injured and that he would "hopefully be back by conferences". Not a good sign and he gets kicked off the list.
-Hubbard was a DNF and Weavering placed 20th at Panorama Farms. Both of them were already on the cusp and ended up getting the boot from the rankings. 

2 comments:

  1. What do you think Knight has to do to jump into that top 3?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Honestly tough to say. I think if

      a) he wins at Wisconsin over McGorty and Fisher (assuming they both run) and
      b) one of the top three show some kind of vulnerability during the next few weeks

      then he could probably find room in that 3rd spot.

      Delete