Updated Etrain Team Power Rankings: Week 5 (10/19)

By: Garrett Zatlin

PAST RANKINGS THIS SEASON
Preseason (9/11)
Week 1 (9/20)
Week 2 (9/28)
Week 3 (10/5)
Week 4 (10/12)-- No changes
Week 5 (10/19)
Week 6 (10/26)-- No changes
Week 7 (11/2)
Week 8 (11/9)-- No changes
Week 9 (11/16)
Week 10 (12/5)

KEY
·      Bold: Had performance or important piece of news that influenced a strong change in the rankings
·      (#/#): First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before
·      (Weren’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#25 Washington Huskies (-6/19)
-It was a pretty disappointing day for the Huskies who finished 16th at Wisconsin. Their performances have been lackluster recently and this race certainly didn't help their situation. Yes, Gilbert had an off race, but even if he had won (highly unlikely) then the Huskies would've only placed 13th. They finished strong last season, so I'm willing to give them PAC 12's to see how they do.

#24 Georgetown Hoyas (-21/3)
-Last year, it was the top ranked Wisconsin Badgers who fell apart despite outstanding potential. Now, the Georgetown Hoyas are struggling to stay relevant. Jon Green had a very poor performance at Paul Short and didn't even show up to race at Wisconsin. All-American Notre Dame transfer Michael Clevenger, hasn't lived up the hype with back-to-back bad performances. 

Also, where is Darren Fahy? He was in our top 50 rankings but has yet to debut. The talented low-sticks that were going to build this team are nowhere to be found and the nation is still waiting to see how the Hoyas will respond. 


The Hoyas will stay on the list...for now. There is just too much talent in that program to ignore. If Green and Clevenger can get back into top form, then the Hoyas will be the once dangerous team we thought they could be at the beginning of the season.


#23 Air Force Falcons (Wasn't Ranked)
-Even though they lost Patrick Corona to graduation, Air Force has been a pleasant surprise this season. The Falcons placed 7th at Pre-Nats with UTEP only 10 points ahead.

Air Force is on a roll and they're starting to gain some momentum. One of the reasons for that momentum is found in junior Andrew Johnston who has been leading the Falcons for the past few meets. Kyle Eller on the other hand, hasn't quite hit the potential he was originally expected to hit. If he can get back to his old level, then the Falcons will become a much more dangerous team.

#22 Furman Paladins (-11/11)
-No Tanner Hinkle. No Aaron Templeton. No Troy Reeder. Where are they? The Paladins could be so incredibly good, but they are missing what may be their top three runners. If they are redshirting, then the Paladins will continue to struggle and eventually drop out of the rankings. But if those three return and are able to race? Then Furman is a scary good team.

#21 Eastern Kentucky Colonials (-4/17)
-The Colonials were split up at Pre-Nats and Wisconsin with most of their top guys running at Wisconsin. 

The result was...ugly. 

The Colonials were 22nd at Pre-Nats and 26th at Wisconsin. That is A LOT of points to make up on both sides, even if the teams were combined. While it was a poor performance, they perform well in the postseason and I'm willing to wait until that point to make a more drastic decision on their ranking.

#20 Indiana Hoosiers (-2/18)

-It was flashy, but Indiana put together a decent 5th place finish at Pre-Nats. The results were solid and you could see a great pack throughout most of the race. Schwartzer and Crist have brought a lot of leadership to a team which helps Ben Veatch, one of the top freshman in the NCAA.

However, the biggest and most apparent problem is the lack of a solid fifth scorer. Their fifth man at Pre-Nats placed 100th overall which was well off the rest of the pack. A few things need to be addressed, but I still trust that Indiana will be a top team in the nation as we roll through the postseason.

#19 Washington State Cougars (+3/22)

-They had a poor showing at Notre Dame, but I knew they would rebound at Wisconsin and that's exactly what they did. The Cougars placed 9th among the 30 team field with Michael Williams and John Whelan leading the way (they finished 15th and 23rd respectively).

The rest of their scorers were 67th, 68th, and 110th. The third and fourth scorers are manageable and don't necessarily destroy the team score when you compare to other programs. However, that 110th finish is going to need some fixing.

There's a nice group of young talent behind Williams and Whelan, but they need to find a way to run as a pack and move up in the results. If they can do that, then not many teams in the West region will be safe.

#18 Colorado State Rams (-8/10)
-It's really hard to tell just how good the Rams are with their up and down performances. They were 10th at Wisconsin this past weekend despite some poor performances from their top guys.

For the most part, their depth is actually coming together and hasn't been as much of a problem as it has been in the past. However, the glaring issue that the entire nation can probably see is that Jefferson Abbey is having an awful season. He was supposed to battle for a top 10 spot, but ended up in 184th place. Something is clearly not right with Abbey who just can't seem to get back to his dominant ways. Jerrell Mock didn't have his best either, but at least he faded to 28th overall and not 184th.

Mock, for the most part, hasn't been too much of an issue this season and he will be better at conferences. However, Jefferson Abbey needs to make some changes and FAST. If he can't step it up, then CSU won't be able to get out of the mountain region as easily as they may think.

#17 UTEP Miners (+4/21)

-It takes five scorers to make a cross country team. To some extent, the fifth scorer is just as important as the first scorer. We saw how true that rule of cross country scoring was at Pre-Nats as the UTEP men took spots 9, 10, 32, 72...and 141. 

Typically, having one of your scorers place 141st is a very concerning issue as a coach. However, UTEP's squad wont lose much sleep because they didn't run their top runner, Jonah Koech. Had Koech run and placed 8th (an estimate), then UTEP would've finished 4th overall and been only 7 points off from Colorado.

They're very talented, but if anything happens to one of their top runners then they will not have a lot of insurance to back to them.


#16 Virginia Cavaliers (-2/14)
-At the Penn State Open, the Cavaliers finished 3rd behind Oklahoma State and Mississippi. Guys like Brent Demarest are stepping up and doing pretty well, but without Henry Wynne this team isn't the competitive titan we thought they could be.

That said, Wynne is supposedly coming back by regionals. Why did they wait so long to run him? It's not clear, but based on his performances last season, he may have peaked too early in 2015 and his delayed debut may be a way to counteract that this year.

#15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (+10/25)

#14 Mississippi Rebels (+2/16)
-It was a nail biter at the Penn State Open, but the Oklahoma State Cowboys pulled out the win by one point over the Rebels. So why is it that the Rebels are still ranked ahead of the Cowboys? There a few reasons...

Mississippi's Sean Tobin placed 10th which doesn't quite line up with his win at Notre Dame. If we want to call if an off day, then we know Tobin will be able to move up and be better in the future.

There is a lot of uncertainty coming from the Oklahoma State guys. Sylvester Barus was the winner of the Cowboy Jamboree, but dropped to 17th this past weekend. Meanwhile, his teammate Hassan Abdi opened up his season placing 2nd to Erb. And what is the status from Cerake Geberkidane? Is he still coming back for the postseason? Will he still be competitive? Until there is a clearer picture of what this team can do, they will take a spot behind Ole Miss.

#13 
Michigan Wolverines (+7/20)

-No Ben Flanagan, no problem. Despite the Wolverines not running one of their best runners, they are still looking like repeat BIG 10 champions after placing 4th at Pre-Nats. Aaron Baumgarten has become a true low-stick for Michigan while Connor Mora was close behind him.

After those two, there was a bit of a gap until Connor Herr, Billy Bund, and Jordan Hewitt took spots 49, 58, and 73. This is an experienced team with a decent top five, but if they want to improve their ranking then they'll need to close that gap.

#12 Iowa State Cyclones (+3/15)

#11 Portland Pilots (+2/13)
-These two teams were pleasant surprises at Roy Griak and they continued to impress us this past weekend. Depth and a tight pack seem to be the trick as the Pilots and Cyclones placed 7th and 8th (respectively) and were separated by only three points. Both teams will need to address some questionable fifth man issues, but besides that these two teams are on a roll.

#10 Wisconsin Badgers (+2/12)

-I should be disappointed in the Badgers, but when you consider that Schrobilgen dropped out due to dehydration the story changes a bit. The Badgers placed a sub-par 11th place at their own home meet. However, if Schrobilgen had finished the race in 10th (just a guess) then the Badgers would've shook off 81 points and finished 5th overall (ahead of Iona).

That said, this weekend showed that their depth is a little iffy and that Schrobilgen is still struggling to put a decent race under his belt. There's more hope than last year for Wisconsin, but now we need to see it soon.

#9 UCLA Bruins (Wasn't Ranked)
-After the Bruins lost low-stick Lane Werley to graduation, I thought they would not longer be relevant among the top competition...I was incredibly wrong.

Maybe Werley graduating was the shock to the system that UCLA needed as nearly all of their scorers have stepped up and impressed me at Roy Griak. Led by senior Ferdinand Edmund, UCLA took 6th at Wisconsin this past weekend and were only 6 points off of Iona.

The team is a refreshing mix of seniors and freshman that have found a way to be competitive once again. Watch out for UCLA to pull off some upsets come the post-season.

#8 Colorado Buffaloes (-1/7)
-Pre-Nats was a bit unexciting for the Buffaloes as they cruised to take 3rd place as a team. Dressel and Saarel didn't seem to be giving a full-out effort, but at least we know that they won't be redshirting this season.

#7 
Iona Gaels (-2/5)

-The Gaels finished 5th overall at Wisconsin which is a very respectable finish. Clements and Kirui look like the real deal after back-to-back big time races. The problem with this program is that they are missing Chartt Miller who could have turned Iona from a podium contender to title contender. If he returns, this team will be dangerous.

In the mean time, Iona will need to figure out how they are all going to run well on the same day. For the most part, they placed pretty well until their fifth scorer crossed the line in 108th place. If we replace that runner with Chartt Miller and assume that he finishes 15th, then the Gaels would have shaved off 93 points and placed 4th overall (only three points off from 3rd place BYU).

#6 Arkansas Razorbacks (+2/8)
-It was a very impressive race at Pre-Nats from a team that I did not expect a lot from. Frankline Tonui had the best race of his career placing 2nd overall and leading the rest of his teammates to finishes of 12, 14, 29, and 53.

Their core group of scorers are very strong and will certainly not be easy to take down at nationals. But just like so many other teams, the weakness at the fifth man position isn't ideal and we have yet to see star-transfer Andrew Ronoh debut for the Razorbacks.

If Ronoh had run and placed 10th (a conservative estimate), then the Razorbacks would have crushed the Oregon Ducks and the rest of the competition with a score of 67 points. It's good to see that they have the capability of running well on the same day, but let's see them do it again and this time, with Andrew Ronoh.

#5 Syracuse Orangemen (-4/1)
-I stuck to my guns after the Orangemen lost to BYU at Panorama Farms, but now I have to accept the fact that the Orangemen just aren't the best team in the NCAA right now after placing 4th at Wisconsin. Knight and Bennie have done well, but Germano is going to need to be a bit closer to throw out some extra points. The same goes for Iliass Aouani who should be finishing much better than 86th. There's certainly room to improve, but without Hehir (now graduated) Syracuse doesn't seem to have the spark they once had. 

#4 BYU Cougars (+2/6)
-I am just in awe of Coach Eyestone and how he can turn any team into a national contender. BYU took 3rd at Wisconsin and took down some strong programs in the process. Montanez has turned out to be an outstanding low-stick for a team that is now running without previously top-50 ranked Dallin Farnsworth (who is on their B team!).

Whatever the case may be, the Cougars have a strong top three with Montanez, Harper, and Linkletter taking the spots among the top 25. Throw in freshman Brayden McLelland with some experienced depth, and you've got the recipe for a team that could easily get on the podium at nationals.


#3 Oregon Ducks (-1/2)
-It was a solid win from the Ducks at Pre-Nats who were initially told that they didn't win to due to an error in the scoring system. After that was corrected, Cheserek and his teammates pulled off the win despite a really good day from Arkansas.

Oregon ran very well and they should find some comfort in the fact that Maton is another low-stick to compliment Cheserek. Tanner Anderson as well as plenty of other younger guys also had great days.

However, despite all the potential and evidence of improvement, there isn't much depth after their fifth man. Bryan Fernandez was 151st while true frosh Austin Tamagno was a DNF. With Leingang and Neuman now running in 'B' races, I don't love the support Oregon will be able to provide to their top guys if one of them has a bad day. That's why they move to 3rd in the team rankings.

#2 Stanford Cardinals (+2/4)
-I can't lie, Stanford looked awfully good after finishing 2nd at Wisconsin. Fisher and McGorty are the best 1-2 punch in the nation while the veterans like Sweatt, Keelan, and Wharton packed together very nicely and finished 32nd, 35th, and 41st respectively. It's the first time in recent memory that those three ran well on the same day.

We even have to consider what could have happened had Alex Ostberg and Thomas Ratcliffe had a chance to race. There are so many moving parts and weapons on this team and it's tough to think that they couldn't win the national title. 

#1 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (+8/9)
-Originally, I convinced myself that it was just hype and that NAU couldn't possibly be the top team in the nation. But after such a dominating performance at Wisconsin, I'm ready to put them as the top team. Plus, What choice do I really have? 

No team has shown to be as deep or as complete as the Lumberjacks. Oregon and Arkansas are vulnerable, Syracuse has been shaky, BYU and Colorado don't have the firepower, and Iona is missing Chartt Miller. Stanford seems to be the only team that could upend NAU.


Northern Arizona won the Wisconsin Invite with an impressive spread taking spots 2, 8, 17, 20, and 31. The decision by Coach Heins to redshirt his top runners in 2015 and have them prep for the 2016 season was a genius move and it's clearly paying off as guys like Tyler Day and Andy Trouard now have the experience to run with the top guys.


There's not too much to dislike NAU right now. Count me in, I'm now on the bandwagon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just Missed 
-Southern Utah Thunderbirds
-Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
-Bradley Braves
-Virginia Tech Hokies

Who To Watch
-San Francisco Dons
-California Golden Bears
-Texas Longhorns
-Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

Kicked Off
-Boise State Broncos (Last Ranked 23rd)
-Michigan State Spartans (Last Ranked 24th) 

New Additions
-UCLA Bruins
-Air Force Falcons

Biggest Surprise of the Week
-Oklahoma State Cowboys

Team of the Week
-Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Notes
-Oklahoma State wins "Biggest Surprise of the Week" after upsetting Mississippi at Penn State despite not having Geberkidane.
-NAU wins "Team of the Week" after a dominant win at Wisconsin.

No comments:

Post a Comment