Make Some Predictions: I Dare You

It looks like the order of events is the same order as the state meet, so I will do my preview in said order. Lots to talk about here so can't waste any more space.

Mile

Watch for Groff and Mattes of Hempfield in the early heats to make some noise. I liked both of those guys during cross. Perez from McCaskey is another name worth keeping an eye on.

In heat 3/4, we start to see some big names. Ben Wilson from Central Dauphin ran low 4:20s last year and split around 1:56 at states. He had a huge day at states this past fall, nearly claiming a medal. He is a big time performer with potential. Dom Stroh from Altoona should be fully recovered from some injuries he suffered during cross and will be comfortable on what is practically is home track. Liam Galligan, sophomore from Springfield DELCO, will look to continue an excellent season and drop into the state qualifying range. Keep an eye in mid penn runners like Darien Knudsen (9:30s PR for 3200) and Yahya Soliman (sub 16 during cross) to prove their speed. Mills, Gatchell and Walker are others to be on the lookout for.

The fast heat is loaded as well. Billy McDevitt, currently sitting at #2 in the state, leads the charge and he is flanked by Kyle Shinn, Alek Sauer, PJ Murray and Andrew Marston who are also among the early state leaders in the event. McDevitt is the stud of his field but Sauer is a sleeper pick here for the win. I like his closing speed and I think his close run with Brophy last weekend prepared him well for this opportunity. I'll be interested to see how the Stoga boys handle this as well. This meet is clearly a big training sesh for a DMR run (Cooper in the 4, Nelson the 8, these two in the mile), but also a chance for those of these guys to lock down spots near the top of the state. I'm excited to see them race in the same heat as well, that will provide extra motivation for both guys. Marston could have a big day today, I think he's ready to pop a fast time.

Also in this fast section are guys like Quinn Wasko, Brad Foust, and Sean Weidner. These guys all have a ton of talent and haven't race much this year. Weidner is my pick of these three to make noise. I liked his cross season and he was a 4:20s guy consistently last year. Foust should excel here as well. He ran an excellent race at this meet last year.

Keep an eye on Brian Hackman for sleeper potential.

But my pick for the win is none of those guys. It's Alex Milligan of State College. He had a great XC season and has been dominating his home meets this year. I think he comes out and has a big moment at this meet, similar to Cather last year at this meet. Basically this is a practice run for him to see if he can do the mile, 4x8 double at states and run well in both. I think he delivers.

My picks:

1 Milligan

2 Sauer

3 Weidner

4 Marston

5 McDevitt

800m

In the early heats keep an eye on Harrison Kline from Hempfield, Joel Gatchell from Red Lion and Joey Feffer from State College among others. Wesley Huff from Central Dauphin may be able to run a fast time as well.

In heat 3, Matt Bouldin from Archbishop Carroll is a name to remember. He's a sleeper for sub 2 after his dominating 800m runs on some slower tracks earlier in the year. 

In heat 4, we have a slew of excellent runners. Some are doubling back from the mile (Wasko, Galligan, Ethan Gatchell) so I'm not sure how much to expect from that group of studs. However, Dan Williams from Pennridge should be running on completely fresh legs and he is carrying the weight of Logue's legacy as defending champ. Williams had a tough 2nd at TFCAofGP so he is going to be motivated and gunning for a fast mark. He's my pick for the W.

Drew Wilkinson from Red Land is slated to be involved in the fast heat and was a cross country medalist this year. I'm interested to see how he translates that strength to the 800. Tooles from Coatesville is in this heat as well, hoping to improve his state rank. As mentioned earlier serious relay potential is looming in this race with not just Killian Nelson but also Zach Yeger and Mark Mulvaney from Pennsbury. 

Pennsbury has two studs in Sauer and Webb (spoiler alert: he's in the 3k) and they had a 2:04ish mark from Eric Kersten last week on a flat track (he's in the mile). Now they throw these two guys into the hot heat with sub 2 potential. A big day from this crew and that really opens up Pennsbury's options for states. Ideally, they won't need Webb on the 4x8 and will still be competing for gold. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

Sleepers include Strosko and George among others.

Predictions:

1 Williams

2 Bouldin

3 Strosko

4 Wilkinson

5 Tooles

3k

Something to remember: look out for Hempfield in the slower heats. This team is good and they are peppered throughout the slower heats with big potential to break out. Also in the slower sections are sleepers like D'Amico, Iffert and Colton Cassell a well as Josh Higgins.

The fast heat is loaded. The 3k already took a size able dip to faster times this past weekend and things shouldn't get easier after this meet is finished. For starters, we will see Casey Comber in his first individual event since Footlocker. As you've probably realized, the numbers say Footlocker Finalists are real good at the 3k (I know it's stunning), but I'm not putting huge expectations on Comber. I don't know how long or how hard he's been training and he's a prime time performer at heart so I think he will do big things down the road. An interesting thing to pay attention to is Comber's teammates. Horsham may have the pieces for a solid DM or 4x8 down the road if Comber can help lift them and individuals from Horsham are peppered all over the place at KD.

Speaking of which, Sam Webb is also in this meet, making his actual individual debut (as opposed to what the results said for TFCAOFGP). Webb has never really had a chance to pursue the 3k because of injuries and relays so I'm very excited to see him debut and hopefully build towards something big on 3/1. 

This race is filled with other intriguing story lines, including a slew of D3 potential. Brian Delaney, Zach Seiger, Nate Henderson and Aiden Demko are all scheduled to compete. That's basically the top 5 at districts in cross and 3 state medalists as well. Ethan Linderman of Canon Mac is another name to watch as he gets his first crack at the 3k on a fast track. Any of these guys could be an upset special on Saturday.

Also worth noting as sleepers are Kirshenbaum, Sunderland, Digiacomo and Desko among others. It's a loaded field that is going to be fun to watch.

Predictions for the top 5

1 Webb

2 Comber

3 Henderson

4 Linderman

5 Demko

4x8

This has a chance to be a truly exciting final distance event. In the slow heat, Red Lion, Red Land and Hempfield are slated to double back A teams to chase some solid times.

The fast heat is loaded. It appears that Mifflin County, Pennsbury, State College, Strath Haven, Altoona, Canon Mac, Conestoga, Archbishop Carroll, JP McCaskey, St Joesphs, Pennridge, Twin Valley and Holy Ghost Prep are all slated to have A teams on the track with various degrees of freshness. That's a loaded group with a ton of state qualifying potential.

The DMR had it's big weekend last weekend and now it appears it's the 4x8s turn. I'm most excited to see Strath Haven, State College and Twin Valley out of this group. Haven looks like a completely fresh squad that has already run one of the best times in the state and showcased impressive individual 800s. Twin Valley also looks completely fresh. They had an awesome DMR run earlier this year and now it looks like they finally get a chance to race top competition. This is a big moment for Twin Valley, who has a chance to really make a statement with a win and a fast time (low 8 minutes is completely in play). 

State College is my very early sleeper pick for the 4x8 title. They have Milligan doubling back but otherwise it looks like this is a fresh relay going Saturday. They've yet to load a relay up but they have guys way down the depth chart running top 50 times in the state. They are deep and they are the defending state champs. They should feel comfortable on this track and I think they make a nice statement at this meet.

Pennsbury is doubling back their guys (including, apparently, Webb testing that 3k-4x8 double) but they are arguably the most talented team in the race so they can't be counted out for a W. HG Prep had a great DMR showing last weekend and appears to be going pretty fresh in this relay to continue their excellent running. Pennridge puts up strong performances fairly consistently in the 4x8 and this team looks pretty fresh with the exception of their likely best leg in Williams.

Sleepers include McCaskey, Altoona and Canon Mac among others. Most of the teams I left off my top 5 I don't think will be fresh enough to get a top spot.

Predictions

1 Twin Valley

2 State College

3 Strath Haven

4 Pennridge

5 Pennsbury

This relay could be really impressive. There's even a chance we see our first sub 8 of the year. The meet overall is loaded and I'm really excited to briefly scan results tomorrow.

Let's just say KD is the MVP for a reason. 

New Balance? I Stand Fine As Is

The New Balance Games this week at the Armory provide one more opportunity for PA's finest to qualify for the fabled Millrose Games on Valentine's Day. PA's Sam Ritz is already slotted for attendance thanks to his win at the appropriately named Millrose Trials a week ago and now we will wait to see if we will have a second representative (I believe PA has not had two reps since 2010 when Mallon and Kehl punched tickets).

PA's best hope for the golden ticket appears to be Kevin James of Cardinal O'Hara. In his brief time back on the track, James has anchored a victorious DMR in around 4:17 and dominated a 3k, winning in 8:40. Both times came in flats on a flat track. Now James moves to a faster track with close to the best competition you can receive in the hopes of taking a solid chunk out of that early season split. 

He will need it. That 4:17 was a split and only a 1600m (the equivalent of roughly 4:19 for the full mile). In the recent qualifying races it took roughly 4:10 or a 1:57 close to take the gold. I haven't dived into the math yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if 4:15ish was the last time to crack the qualifying standards. 

But James has been on a role this season, hungry from yet another close call with Gold and rolling off arguably two of the most impressive non-Sam Ritz performances of the year. He ran about 4:12 and 9:03 last spring while also showcasing speed in the 1:55 range. 

The last time James stepped on the Armory's track, he and his O'Hara teams won the National Championship and came within a fraction of the best indoor DMR EVER. I'd imagine that takes some pressure off.

James won't be the only one in the Mile repping the PA Don't Play slogan. A couple D11 rivals Khai Samuels from Pleasant Valley and Ryan Paradise from Emmaus are slotted to be in what looks to be the slower of two sections, but both are hoping to put their names on the map as many fans probably haven't heard much about them.

Paradise, a Junior this year, played soccer in the fall after a terrific sophomore track season. At the District 11 Championships, he started the day anchoring his Emmaus squad to near upset of Whitehall, running 8:01.22 for second and a spot at states. But Paradise wasn't done just yet. He battled for an individual spot on the starting line at states, but lost to another soph (Joe Espinal) running 4:24.96 to 4:24.91 and missed out. But Paradise wasn't done just yet. He rallied for a third race of the meet, running 1:59.03 for 3rd in the 800m, again just one spot away from an individual state qualifying mark.

The man who won that 800m race was Khai Samuels of Pleasant Valley who ran 1:57.76 that day for the gold. Samuels is essentially already back at that mark, running 1:57 this past December in a battle with Pennsbury's Alek Sauer. That race marked Samuels' arrival among the state's best (he too smashed the old meet record of 1:58.20), but now he tries his hand up in distance at the mile. We will see just how close to the top end of his range this is, but Samuels is likely confident after a strong fall and early winter and he is happy to have teammate Seth Slavin to help him up his endurance.

Speaking of Seth, Pleasant Valley is sending Slavin along with Samuels to the Armory this weekend. Slavin and Samuels will likely run the end legs of Pleasant Valley's DMR. PV will be chasing a 10:50 type mark that has become the new projected state standard seemingly over night. And that mark is within reach.

Pleasant Valley is a certified sleeper. After their run at Lehigh early in December it was clear they were a D11 team to watch. Now, thanks to Samuels emergence, Slavin's 9:46 2 mile (converts to 9:02 for 3k) and Aliem Hoousenclove (51.64 400m, top 10 in the state) this team is a state team to watch. It will be interesting to see how they choose to build their order. Slavin seems to have the best strength while Samuels has the perfect combination of speed and endurance to hit the 1200m well, however Pleasant Valley opted for Slavin at the 12 the last time out and he may be more comfortable in that role. 

(Small side note, Slavin's 9:46 converts to 9:02 and change on milesplit, but the PTFCA converts it to 9:08! That's 6 very significant seconds. The PTFCA uses a flat rate of 35 seconds 3200m to 3k, but 35 seconds for 200m is 4:40/9:20 pace, i.e. 8:45 for 3k. So unless you are Nick Dahl or Kev James you aren't getting full value with that conversion. Plus that assumes that you would just keep running the same pace for the extra 200m, which is wrong, so really the 35 second conversion doesn't make sense until you are around 8:40-8:41. So PTFCA stop screwing over distance runners! Now back to the preview)

Also on the entry list for the DMR are Penncrest, St. Joe's Prep and Radnor. Penncrest is a fantastic 4x8 team (PA #2 from an earlier Armory meet) and one of the early contenders for state gold in that event. To me, they are perfectly built for the 4x8, so I'm very interested to see how they handle the DM. Their logical mile legs have graduated (the Kazanjian bros) and this race will provide an excellent opportunity for the 800m men to stretch their range. I think this an exciting opportunity and a nice variation and worthwhile experiment. At the very least, it keeps things interesting in practice. Best case, this is 2008 Penncrest 2.0 (2nd place at indoor states).

Radnor was a DMR medaling squad in 2014 and with Holm and Kelly back, they have the pieces to put together another sub 11. They recently ran what was likely a tune up for this meet at one of the TFCAofGP meets, running a fast DM. The DMR is ultra competitive this year, so teams will need all the chances they can to run fast. Radnor sees this as a chance to get their name back in the conversation for state elite.

Lastly is St Joe's Prep. This is one of my favorite squads to watch so far in 2015. Daly was my upset special in the mile at Burdette and nearly came through for me, finishing 2nd. Isaiah Fisher is a quality 800m runner who also has the strength to run close to 16 flat in the 5k. Those are two dangerous end legs. Prep was a good 4x8 last year (7:53ish at states) and I think they are built very nicely for a DMR push. This team seems to prefer the DMR based on past state results, but hasn't been fast enough to qualify in recent years. I think that will change this week. I'm projecting a big day for Prep.

Good luck to all teams. Represent us well PA.

PS I finally found those PCL results. I'll update my file accordingly for next week so the state qualifying standards are up to date.

State Qualifying List

So here is a link to the latest edition of the state qualifying list for indoor.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-eWv1L8cVyJRmNhUFhFdkxrRU0/edit?usp=docslist_api

Once again my numbers match the penntrack cut off list with the exception of one event (the mile) which I assume is different because they either didn't have Kutztown results yet or didn't convert the 1600m marks to mile times (if they did a simple sort by mile time run, they would miss the 16s, 32s and 2 miles which are very relevant).

Regardless, this list is different than Penntrack's because it has names and rankings. I've also added a few extra columns this week. I'm doing some rough predicting for who I think will scratch and pick each relay at season's end. It's still very early, but I figured it's fun to see how this changes the cut off standard.

For now even though I think certain people will likely scratch once they are qualified in other events, if they haven't qualified yet I'm assuming they won't scratch.

If you have any input on what you think will go down or any people I'm missing or just general questions, comment away!

One last note, I haven't been able to find any results for guys from the PCL meet (supposedly some strong 3k performance there from Morro and others) so if anyone has info on that it would be appreciated so I can keep this file up to date.

State Champs Week: Nick Crits

Nick Crits was one of the first top flight runners I watched run in person. Except back then we didn't really think of him as some game changing runner, we just thought of him as that guy who we needed to beat from Wissahickon's squad. And then eventually he became the guy who likes to play with his food before he eats it.

My first conference championship I ever saw, our 9:26 3200m runner Joe Dorris tried to break Crits on the opening laps of the 1600m. Crits promptly rolled by him the final 200m and probably broke the remaining career for Joe.

The next year I watched him blow by my teammate and future state champ Mike Palmisano, a guy who had a great kick in his own right. It was absurd to watch Crits pick his moment and just leave everyone else looking like they just hit a patch of quick sand. It was like somebody picked up a real life Mario mushroom.

But the seemingly invinceable Crits kick had been bested in 2008. At indoor states, Max Kaulbach, the two mile specialist from GFS, dropped down to the mile for a chance at a rematch with Crits, who had outkicked him the previous year on the anchor leg of the DMR in the battle for 2nd. 

The pace was absurdly slow to start before outdoor 1600m state champ Vince McNally mercifully took the reigns and began to make things honest. But at 200m, the sitting duck was jumped by Crits who tried to blow by and hold in for the win. To my amazement, Kaulbach roared back down the back stretch and sprinted by with 100m to go. It would prove to be a valuable lesson about timing.

Outdoors Crits rolled his way through double gold at districts in the 1600m and 800m and awaited a stacked field at states, including defending champ and 4:07 man Vince McNally, Greg Kareis, who had beat McNally at Districts, and the poster child of the WPIAL, 1:52-4:12 man TJ Hobart who had allegedly split 47 on a 4x4 that year.

The resulting match up of talent became one of my favorite title runs of all time.

http://youtu.be/iihSczlwZfY

PS Crits and I share a birthday. How great is that?

Yale Summary and Some Notes

The Yale Classic packed a big time punch this year and with Kevin Dare right around the corner this meet seems to kicked off the official "we are going to run fast" time of the year. 

The first big event was the DMR race and Malvern Prep got things going for PA by finishing second in their section with a blazing 10:36. The order was apparently Wills (3:12) to King (:52) to Mueller (2:06) to McDevitt (4:23). That's an excellent start for the Prep who are eager to prove themselves this season in the DMR. Wills and McDevitt are consistent and strong for the key legs on this relay and Mueller has already shown solid improvement. They will be in the hunt at states, however if McDevitt or Wills land in the 3k I'd be nervous about their prospects for a fast mark. However, I'd say both guys are around 4:25ish milers as thing currently stand which makes them more than capable of competing in that event.

Don't sleep on the result from Holy Ghost Prep in this one. They ran 10:52 and likely got a big lift from Patrick Dineen as well. HGP has produced a slew of strong indoor relays and last year they were (to me anyway) a surprise 3rd in this event last year. They medaled in 2013 and were a hard fought second in 2012. Keep these guys on your radar for March.

Also in the mix at 10:54, the always dangerous West Chester Henderson. No idea who was apart of this relay, but I'd be curious to see what the defending champs are up to after graduating essentially all of their district qualifiers a year ago. Knapp was the ace during cross but he's still relatively unproven at shorter distances. I'd wager Swart and Barchet may also be best at the 3k-5k type events but don't know enough to say for sure. Regardless, Henderson is a fierce contender year after year and has won 3 DMR state titles since 2007. 10:54 isn't that type of level, but it's a very strong start for a team in their first race back.

In the Championship section, PA's own GFS and Conestoga battling the best from the region. GFS ran tough in the field to finish 5th in 10:33 and grab PA #1 honors. Apparently Hepp ran around 3:13 and Nick Dahl anchored home in 4:18ish. That's moving for the soph. Keep in mind this means the middle legs totaled just north of 3 minutes, so maybe a 53 and a 2:08 or something in the ball park. Newman was the likely 800m leg. He was awesome during cross country, but now he just needs that distance credential to translate to speed. If he continues to improve, the team will really make noise.

Honestly, I'm in a place I find myself often, jumping on the GFS bandwagon. This school has produced consistent DMR excellence despite not yet capturing that state title in the event (took the Penn Relays title in 08 though). Last year these guys had a rough day and finished out of the medals at states, likely because they were an extremely young squad. Another year of seasoning could be good for this team. Plus, I think this team may end up throwing out a completely fresh relay rather than tiring themselves out in the opens. That's a big sacrifice (especially after Dahl's weekend) but this team always seems to have an unselfish mindset surrounding it. We will see just how fast they go individually going forward and just how badly they want the title.

For Stoga they ended up 10th in 10:41, but that's still an excellent time. I thought I saw the order listed as Murray to Cooper to Nelson to Marston on the pre race performance list but I'm not positive on that. Pretty crazy to think your best available quarter miler is a cross country runner who was top 50 in the state in XC, doing his best running at the hillier state course. Plus Nelson is a strong miler, but I got a vibe he was better longer as well. I think these 4 runners are all studs and we could see a great 4xmile down the line from them, but I worry about them finding the speed to compete at a shorter relay.

The good news, when you're a good runner who is in top shape you can run anything. Despite my worries they still ran a fantastic 10:41 and have excellent legs in Murray and Marston who have been impressive in their limited racing this January. They can still mix it up with the best in the state.

The other relay action was led by the Downingtown schools. DT East, with O'Reilly involved, dropped an 8:19.14 to put them in early season state qualifying position. Meanwhile rivals DT West ran 8:22 almost immeaditley following an 11:04 effort in the DMR. Now I don't know this for sure, but I thought I saw on the entries that West both of those relays with Sappey or Josh Hoey, probably their two best healthy runners at this point. This team seems to be keep things a bit under raps right now and waiting to unleash all their cards at the right moment. They clearly have a nice slew of depth and talent so it will be interesting to see how they choose to use it.

The next day, times continued to be fast. There were a variety of big names in the 3k with a ton of medalists involved, but ultimately the often underrated Dominic Hockenbury rose to the top of the PA field and blasted an 8:38.39 for 8th overall. Dom didn't get too much press, but he ought to now after following on the footsteps of old district and state rival Dominic Deluca and stealing the spotlight back for AA. 

Hockenbury's 3k converts to around 9:16.5 for 3200m according to milesplit conversions, which would be faster than his 9:17 PR from a year ago. He was overshadowed by some other bigger names during XC, but the kid basically went undefeated all year and was nearly a footlocker finalist before faltering over the final mile or so. The other advantage he has over many of his competitors for states is the fact that he doesn't have any relays to worry about. He can focus all his energies on the 3k and give the event 100% effort without need to jump down for the mile to increase rest. He's a real state title treat, hungry to prove he can roll with anyone in PA. And just a junior.

Now I certainly feel James's solo effort is more impressive than Hock on a ride along type race, but you can't argue with the clock. Dom is PA #1.

Nick Dahl came by next for PA, and fresh off what was likely a pr split on the DM, Dahl drops an 8:44 3k. That's a crazy double for someone so young. The potential here is scary. Andrew Marston came along next in 8:51, also doubling the day after the DMR. That's a great time in it's own right and likely will be fast enough to clinch a spot to states, regardless of what happens from here. 

Colin Wills and Alex Knapp both broke the 9 minute barrier with 8:58 and 8:59 times in the deep Yale race. Excellent work by Knapp who has had his fair share of struggles translating his XC prowess to the track. As for Wills, that's an excellent display of range. I'd like to see him work his speed a bit more if he's going to be the 1200 leg on a competitive DMR, but that's an excellent 3k. Maybe they will consider making a switch with McDevitt and Wills legs looking ahead depending on how each guy continues to develop.

Speaking of McDevitt, he was PA's top miler running 4:23 for 6th overall. That's a strong time for him and I sign that he can grow into a sub 4:20 anchor, a necessary piece for a true contender in the DMR. It's also a good sign individually, as he will likely compete in the mile and states and has a chance for a top medal in the event.

Behind McDevitt was Mike Kolor (4:23), Eric Diestelow (4:26), Henry Sappey (4:28) and Josh Hoey (4:29). As mentioned, I believe all 4 of those guys were running on fresh legs for this mile. Diestelow had a bit of a tough battle in the fast heat in his first true challenge of the season. That's an important experience for him as he looks to compete for his first state medal this indoors. 

Mike Kolor is a really good runner. Seneca Valley was a top notch 4x8 squad in 2014 and now that Brett Foster has graduated, Kolor is the main man. He ran low 4:20s last outdoors, despite most of his races coming on the double with tired legs. He overcame some slight injury concerns during cross and peaked perfectly en route to a state medal (and helped team etrain win the fantasy draft). Now he comes out in the 2nd heat and runs an excellent time. He's also just a junior.

The DT West boys had a strong showing and now the question will be how to piece together everyone for a relay. They have a decent amount of options considering their depth. I'd really like to see both these guys in a 3k looking ahead because they seem to only get better as they move up. Keep an eye on it. Worth mentioning: DT West also had a 51.7 open 400m run from junior Josh McLemore.

A couple more additional times worth mentioning. Todd Gunz runs a strong 4:33 for 1600. Lebo had 3 sub 4:50 and a couple 53 types in the 400. At a separate meet Andrew Maxwell of slippery rock ran 4:46 and 10:10 in the 16 and 32.

Weekend Action Part 1

I'm getting the feeling that there is going to be a lot to report on for this week, so I guess I better get started ....

Sam Ritz is a beast. There isn't much else to say about it. Closing in 1:57 en route to a 4:16 is just bananas. And things may open up really nicely for him to get the double gold if Lewis sticks to the sprints (although don't sleep on Alek Sauer). It's still very early, but in the right race Ritz can get that 4:11 and 4:12 state records. However, if he has to go out and do it Russell style (hammering from the front the whole way) that not only puts a serious hit on his double gold hopes, but it also leaves him vulnerable for an upset (similar to what happened in his first mile at the armory). If he sits and waits and closes fast from 400m-800m out (like Willig, Endress, etc.) he puts himself in excellent shape for not just one, but maybe two golds. I hope he can give us our first Millrose gold since um ... 2007 I think with Jason Weller? Yikes it's been a while PA. If all goes right I'll be there to see it in person this year.

Glenn Mills is a slow track. Just keep that in mind. A few years back, the Central Bucks West 4x800m squad ran something like 8 flat or 8:01 on that track while Abington was at the Armory running a state record time in the mid to high 7:40s. A few weeks later at PSU, CB West dropped their seed time by roughly 15 seconds and ran the indoor state record for the 4x800m defeating Abington in a time of 7:45.06.

If you're looking for a more recent result that proves that point, feel free to check out Tyji Mays who ran 10:04 to win the 3200m at GM (roughly equivalent to 9:20s in the 3k by my estimates) and then dropped all the way below 9:10 this weekend just from the switch to Haverford's track. In the relays, we saw Penn Wood put together one of their first stacked 4x8s of the season and they delivered against what was likely a stacked Cheltenham team 8:22 to 8:27. I'd love to see both these teams on faster tracks going after it in the future, however with the 4x4 duties most of these guys will likely have, I'm doubting we see any stacked state 4x8s out of these sprint powerhouses. For the record, Wissahickon continues to drop time. They have a balanced team that is going to continue to improve and they have a very realistic shot of being one of the 12 teams qualified when the dust clears.

There was some other interesting drama going on up at GM, but I've got a post planned on it later this week, so I'll leave it at that for now.

Out in Ohio, we saw a few more different WPIAL teams getting involved in the indoor season. Ethan Linderman and Nick Wolk were among the early strong showings in the 1600m, down around 4:40-4:41. Shane Burkhardt was in the mix as well. Noah Smith and the Ringgold boys are the early sleeper team to watch out of D7. I really like how Smith ran during cross and now he continues his momentum here on the track. He ran 4:36.31 for 1600m to put him in the early season state qualifier mix (he also added a win in the 3200m). And don't look now, but this squad may have the pieces for a relay brewing down the line. Skylar Scholl ran 2:02 in the open 8. Canon-Mac's Strosko ran 2:03 in the open 800m and his team won the 4x8 title in around 8:40. Down the line (maybe outdoors time) these guys may be a state qualifier in this event if they focus their energies on it.

In the TFCAofGP, the action was impressive as usual. The winners of the day: Central Bucks East. While many top teams were attending the Yale Invitational, CB East put on a clinic on the distance side of things. Oliver Boucher started the day with a dominating win in the 400m (52.84). Teammate Ata Shahideh surprised in the 800m with a 2:01.02 win in the event over a strong field. Then Jake Brophy dropped his first open time in the mile, winning in 4:31 over a strong field that included "Sam Webb" (apparently was actually Alek Sauer), Rock Fortna and Joe Maguire among others. Connor Sands joined the leaders of the state 3k race with a 9:08.34 run. And then, a relay that featured none of arguably their 4 best runners, won the DMR in 11:14! Wow!

This is a big statement for East. You can see the pieces coming together for a serious DMR run considering they grabbed three golds in the 4-Mile and then an extra with their "B" team in the DM. Despite all that, I see this team opting for the 4x8 at states and the emergence of soph Ata Shahideh is huge for that plan. I think Brophy could potentially even pull of a 3k-4x800m double as I described in an earlier post.

Recapping the events, Shahideh won the 800m over Dan Williams (2:01.85), Dave Marrington (2:02.01) and then Jake Good and Andrew Baker ran 2:03 and 2:04 for Abington and CB West respectively. I think Williams and Marrington are both really dangerous 800m runners going forward (all the more reason to be impressed by Ata's win) but I'm not sure I see Marrington having space on his schedule for the 800m as things get to championship season considering the 4x2, 60H and 4x4 are all on his radar for a sleeper team trophy squad. Williams, an under the radar stud on Pennridge's district champ 4x8, ran his first open 8 of the year and should continue to mix it up for medals as the season progresses.

In the mile, Brophy beat out Alek Sauer in Brophy's first race back after long cross seasons. Brophy is showing signs he can be a factor in the mile conversation at states, although the 3k would likely be his best event. Pennsbury's Eric Kersten, a sophomore, ran 2:04 in the open 800m as well which is an encouraging piece to develop. They also have a couple guys who were in the 1:28-1:29 region at the armory for 600m and Sam Webb (1:57 split). This team has a nice amount of depth. Sauer is my early pick as most likely to knock off Ritz and historically he does his best running on relays. Watch out for Pennsbury.

For CB West, Fortna (4:33) runs a strong race for 3rd. He and Baker are two strong pieces for a DMR and they also have Ian Davies on the roster who has performed admirably in the early season. CR South, an early leader in the DMR, got a strong PR not just from Joe Maguire (4:33 for 4th) but also from Andrew Hanna, who broke 9 today in the 3000m to finish second to Brian Arita of the rivals from CR North (8:58-8:59). CR South's DMR end legs are in fantastic shape right now, but will they focus on the relay or chase individual medal opportunities.

In the 3k, Arita's win in 8:58.0 adds yet another impressive gold medal run to his resume here in the early season. He has having a fantastic season thus far and quite frankly is showcasing a ton more track speed than I was expecting from him. I think by outdoors he could be a real factor in the 3200m. He's likely going to end up in the mile this year indoors to help out his relay members, but I think the 3k is best event. However, the 3k is potentially going to be absurdly loaded and (as of right now) I don't see the mile shaping up to be nearly as competitive, making Arita a serious contender in this event for a medal.

LaSalle continues to get impressive times. I haven't seen PCL results yet, so I won't say much but Price runs a strong 2:05 and Stephen Paul, a sophomore, adds yet another impressive time to the list for LaSalle milers, running 4:38.

In Division II, there's really only one thing to say. Kevin James ran quite the 3k. Unamused by the action going on in the loaded Yale 3k, KJ followed up his monster DMR split with a blazing 8:40.46 3k to set a meet record. He won by 38 seconds and ran on a flat track without spikes. That's a huge statement win and (although it's incredibly early to start talking this way) puts sub 8:30 in play by states. Heck, it even puts the thought of the 8:22 state record within a punchers chance considering how loaded that 3k has the potential to be. That being said (and again I'm typing this without having seen PCL meet results), O'Hara will have a relay with the potential to make noise. James can certainly run a really fast mile (are all the Millrose qualifying meets done?), but his best event is the 3k and I'm sure it's the event he would like to win most. Last year O'Hara gave free reign to their individuals to double in their best events and maximize points, but without Belfatto and Smart this year the relay may become more important.

As of right now my gut says we could see a Kev double in the mile and 3k and a completely fresh relay on the back end, but that's just a guess. Any way you spin it, Kevin and Sam Ritz are both in fantastic shape for this time of year. We will see what the rest of the state can answer with (and yes I will get to the Yale results eventually).

In other news, we saw a very compelling DMR race between Wissahickon and Springfield DELO, a couple etrain certified sleepers for this season. I've been a fan of what Liam Galligan has done for Springfield this season and his squad ended up pulling out the victory 11:02 to 11:04. Springfield's time converts to sub 11 banked track, but thanks to the fast times at Yale it currently sits at PA #16 as I'm typing this. Both teams will have to continue to make strides if they are going to punch tickets to the big dance, but keep an eye on these under the radar smaller schools.

Radnor got a strong win the 4x8 in 8:24 (followed by a strong showing by Upper Merion who continues to stay relevant despite losing yet another 1:53 man in Austin Cooper the year after losing Christian Sanders), Alex Kim from the Haverford School dominated the mile in 4:43 (I like this kid, just a sophomore and ran solid during XC in the independent league), and Harriton shows signs of a nice 1-2 punch with Gillespie-Sickman (4:51) taking second in the mile and Sam Ebby getting second in the 3k (9:18). Both guys are just Juniors and GS was in the top 50 at states for cross country. Both guys are nice deep sleepers to try and crack that 3k top 12 (which is going to be quite a tough time as I may have already mentioned).

Yale will get its own post tonight/tommorrow (before the playoff games, because once those start I doubt I'll be doing too much blogging) and hopefully the PCL meet results pop up so I can throw those in as well.

State Champs Week

By the time you read this it may already be less than 8 days until the release of etrainLXV. As you've probably heard by now, etrainLXV has been called by a variety of fans "that thing that etrain keeps talking about" and it has been praised for being "something I don't really care about" by a variety of top experts in the field. 

But despite the early accolades, i thought it may be fun to have a bit of final week festivities. I will, as usual, be giving me thoughts and insight on the weekend action, but my hope is also to try something else fun.

As many of you may have read by now if you clicked on the picture of Lukas on the home page, the LXV in part is meant to signify the 65 different individual state champions I have seen during my years in office and honor the contributions they have made to the sport. 

Considering the name, I thought it might be fun for the week leading up to the LXV release if we heard from some of PAs state champs themselves about their memories, experience and keys to success.

I will attempt to reach out to some people that have reached out to me in the past for comment, but seeing as I have no idea who actually reads my blog, I'm going to need all of your guys help as well.

If you have won an individual, team or relay state gold then I want to hear from you (and I think my readers would too). So shoot me an email or drop me a line on Facebook. 

You can contribute with either a post that you write, an off the record interview for a post that I write, a video of your race or one of your favorite moments or a recorded interview/podcast through a phone call. 

I think this could be a cool way to generate some buzz and exposure before the indoor season really hits it's stride and I'd love to have as many people involved as possible.

Keep in mind, I'm talking state champions from any year (and any state) so if you are a parent, coach or someone from Arkansas who just happens to love pa high school running, then I'm talking to you! Even if you've never won a state title yourself, but you've coached a state title runner I'll count it! Girls/boys, sprinters/distance, team/individual it's all within the rules.

And as an added bonus for those of us (like me) who aren't state champs, if you recruit someone you know to contribute to state champ week here on the blog, you will receive a special one of kind prize! Your choice between an exclusive preview of etrainLXV 24 hours early or an official etrain autograph on one of my actual pieces of scrap paper I take notes on when I'm planing out a post! 

I mean those are prizes you literally can't put a price on! (Mainly because they have a value close to 0 ... But still)

So hopefully some people jump in and get involved and stay tuned to the blog this week for state champ week!

As always the best ways to get in touch with me: email at jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com or hit me up on Facebook 

Goodnight and have a pleasant tomorrow.

D3 Running

10 days out from LXV so I decided to call up my buddy Charlie Kline to celebrate. We talk about the D3 running experience and much more in the latest podcast from here at therealtrain.

Hope you enjoy this pod half as much as we enjoyed playing it for you. Pound cake reference.

http://tapeacall.com/qv348uyepm

15 Laps and A Lot of Decisions

I've never run an indoor 3k. Quite frankly I'm not sure I ever want to (although there's a chance in two weeks I end up doing it anyway). It takes some strong athletes to put their mind and bodies on the line for 15 laps around the track. 

As if running those 15 laps wasn't enough trouble, the 3k at states is positioned uncomfortably close to the relays (4x8 and DMR) and all other individual events are packed in before it, meaning for any runner serious about the 3k, the mile is off the table.

I'm not going to argue the 3k belongs in another spot or anything: I think this is the right place for it in the line up. That being said, 3k runners are put in a very difficult situation when filling in their schedule for the championships at Penn State.

There have been many strategies for individuals in the 3k who also have potential top 5 relay squads waiting around for the end of the meet. The first is most obvious: run the 3k and then run the relay on tired legs. 

The 3k is a brutal event, especially if things are quick from the gun. Coming back with heavy legs for a relay is risky business, especially a key leg of the DMR. No one has been a part of a sub 10:30 DMR at states after running the 3k earlier in the meet. Literally no one (or at least no one I can think of). That stat is compelling, especially when you consider some of the names that have done the 3k, DMR double. State champs like Ryan Gil, Jason Weller, Terrence Lee and Mark Dennin all couldn't pull off the double. It's really challenging.

But there have been success stories. Last year alone guys like Christian Kardish for Holy Ghost Prep and Cole Nissley (I think he was on the relay) helped lead their teams to medals. Billy McDevitt from Malvern Prep also was likely doubling back on the DMR after his 3k and Prep grabbed some hardware. So clearly it's not an impossible double, but it really decreases your chance of getting a killer time and, depending on the year, finishing in the top 3-5 teams.

The 4x8 has also had it's share of success stories. Last year Kevin James doubled back to help his O'Hara team grab second place in the 4x8. In 2008 CB East's Josh Izewski ran 8:30 in the 3k and followed it up with a killer anchor leg for his 4x8, which ended up second overall behind meet record setters North Penn. O'Hara's Dan Savage also tried the 3k-4x8 double in 2012, but he was spent after a fantastic 3k run and couldn't hold serve with Henderson and Bensalem.

Another strategy has been to dodge the 3k and instead chase the mile to maximize rest time. Ross Wilson did that last year for CRNorth and it helped him get his squad to the medal stand. In 2012, the GFS boys Sami Aziz and Lyle Wistar took on the mile rather than the 3k so they would have more time to double back in the DMR and helped the team place in the top 5. Aziz had been 3rd in the 3k at states the previous year and was the top returner in the race so this was a fairly large sacrifice (although Aziz would have had his hands full in the deepest 3k in state history). These runners still get the chance to compete for medals (and in many cases they get those medals) but sometimes they give up a realistic chance at state gold in the process. If the 3k is their best event, they are putting themselves at a disadvantage in the medal chase and still tiring themselves out at least a bit, hurting their DMR chances. 

That being said the mile-DMR and mile-4x8 doubles are easier doubles not only because the race itself is shorter, but because there is significantly more time between events. The mile is almost first and the DMR is almost last.

The last two strategies go hand in hand. Go all in on the relay or Go all in on the individual race. Sometimes runners are willing and able to sacrifice for their relay. Sometimes a runner is carrying a relay and coaches see it as unfair to that athlete to have them sacrifice their individual potential for a sub par relay.

I've seen things happen both ways. Dustin Wilson in 2011 gave up not just the 3k (where he would have been among the title favorites) but also the mile (where he had the PA #1 time for most of the year) to try and help his DMR get a top spot. Wilson was a Junior then so he was willing to make the sacrifice, however he was an injury away from that decision coming back to haunt him. Chestnut Hill Academy was a borderline medal team with Wilson and ended up 9th.

In other cases guys have completely ditched individual events and it has paid off. Dillon Farrell was a potential 3k medalist in 2011 and had actually beaten Wilson earlier that season. But Wissahickon knew their state title hopes died without a fresh Farrell, so Dillon gave up his medal and shot and it ended up being worth it: Wissahickon won the state title. However, if Wissahickon ends up 5th or 6th (the pack behind Farrell was very tightly grouped) I'd imagine he thinks of that decision less fondly.

Then there is the 2008 GFS approach. They had a fantastic DMR (they won Penn Relays that spring) but they had three individuals who had shots to grab medals in individual events. So they ran the 3 distance guys that would go on to win Penn Relays in individuals events and none of them doubled back for the DMR, instead they put out a completely fresh "B" squad.

Max Kaulbach won the mile and medaled in the 3k as a result. Jake McKenzie and Isaac Ortiz also had medal worthy individual performances in the 3k and mile respectively. As for the relay? That "B" squad beat out a lot of teams "A" teams and grabbed a state medal anyway.

It was a great learning experience for that DMR, especially considering that in 2010 many of the same runners from the 2008 team found themselves right in the hunt for a state title in the DMR including Gus McKenzie and Tom Waterman.

For the record in 2010 GFS kept all of their guys completely fresh for the relay, despite having multiple guys seeded in or close to medal position. They finished around 10:25 in third and ended up the only PA team to compete at Penn Relays in the DMR.

So pretty successful strategy I would say?

But it's not always easy to see the whole picture and it's certainly very difficult to predict the future. So what do the boys in 2015 do about this predicament?

There will be a slew of guys with competing interests this year. For starters, reigning XC state champ and top state returner from last year's 3k Jake Brophy is also a part of the state's #1 4x8. CB East has also shown signs they can throw down an excellent DMR. Brophy may be in line for an Izewski like double, but he may also consider giving up the 3k for the easier mile 4x8/DMR double. Brophy gave up all individual events last outdoors to help his team in the 4x8 (they ended up an impressive 3rd) and they needed his 1:55-1:56 split to reach their potential. But last indoors and at Penn Relays, East let Brophy chase the 3k. Indoors he was a top contender and he delivered, finishing 2nd. At Penn he finished disappointingly far back in a stacked an fast field. That may have been the deciding factor for Brophy when he opted to pull the plug on the 3200m. 

After a state title in cross, it's hard for me to imagine Brophy not competing in an individual event, but I think the mile is in play. Brophy's speed has improved in the past year (unsurprisingly considering his brother was a 400m state medalist) and a variety of footlocker finalists have chosen to work on speed during their shortened indoors (Furcht, Springer, McNally, Wilson, Russell, Barchet, Gil to name a few).

Alongside Brophy, is #2 returner Kevin James from o'Hara. OH just ran the #1 DMR in the state and the record for 3k-DMR doubling is shaky at best. KJ has had a ton of close calls for state titles, so would it be fair, as a senior, for him to give up his 3k for the mile and a battle with Sam Ritz?

On the flip side, there will be guys who emerge in the 3k (like Brophy) that could be just as formidable as Ritz. James also has proved he has killer speed, splitting 4:17-4:18 in his first meet back. Last year he ran about 4:12y in the mile so it's not like he's out of his league in the mile. 

Regardless, O'Hara hasn't been afraid to double their guys in recent years. They let James do the mile and 3k as a sophomore when they chose to load a 4x8 rather than DM. The next year all 3 of their top runners doubled to try and maximize points in a team trophy pursuit. That led to a 4x8 rather than a DMR. O'Hara is fine waiting until Nationals to showcase their excellent DMR potential, they have done it twice in a row now. But is nationals more important than a shot at state gold for a team that has had so many close calls?

Beyond these two big names lots of other guys will have tough calls. Sam Webb and Pennsbury have a top notch 4x8 and one of the best 800m men in the state in Alek Sauer. They may not need Webb if they ran 8:08 without Sauer, but a 1:57 leg never hurts. Plus, Webb has shown the ability to double 3200m-4x8 two years in a row now, so I think he can handle the 3k-4x8 if necessary. The real question will be if Pennsbury is willing to give up a chance at a really good DMR (sub 10:20 is in play) for a 4x8 battle with CB East, Penncrest, State College and maybe even LaSalle or O'Hara depending on how things shake out?

Andrew Marston and Conestoga already have 2 milers sub 4:30 and another under 4:40. Murray looks great one meet in and Marston was huge for these guys during cross. Stoga has real potential in the DMR, especially if they decide to be one of the only fresh teams involved in the race. But that would require Marston to pass on the 3k (and possibly Murray to pass on a medal shot in the mile). Stoga was second at states in XC and seems like a team first squad, so maybe this is in play, but that's asking a bunch of Marston.

Billy McDevitt, Seth Slavin, Joe MaGuire and Andrew Hanna are all among the leaders in the 3k through the early portion of January. McDevitt and Malvern Prep have something to prove this year in the DMR, but their stock falls a bit if McDevitt is doubling off the 3k. MaGuire and Hanna are running phenomenally for a sneaky good CR South team that should be a sleeper pick for the DMR state title. That doesn't happen if MaGuire and/or Hanna is double dipping with the 3000. 

A lot will change in the next month and a half, but keep an eye on these plot lines and the results that will shape the most interesting stories of the state entry struggle.

Indoor Rankings #1

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-eWv1L8cVyJUkJZczQ2MDlRaDQ/edit?usp=docslist_api

This should link up to an updated ranking sheet for indoors so far this year based on times run this season (and only based on times run this season). I converted everything to bank track marks just like the PTFCA will do with seeding. Without scratches, this is what the PTFCA state performance list would look like.

If anyone has questions or I missed someone let me know (for the record my numbers match exactly with the list penntrack produced today, but I've got names and it goes out a bit farther to account for scratches).

It's important to understand that there will not just be scratches, there will be SIGNIFICANT scratches. Here are my basically rules for guessing who will scratch.

Rule 1: If your best event/event you are focusing on is the 3k, you most likely are scratching the mile/8

Rule 2: If you are running the 4x8, you scratch the DMR and vice versa (obvious but worth mentioning)

Rule 3: If you have serious state title hopes in a relay, you are limiting your individual entries (if you are smart) and you are almost definitely not running the 3k. 

There's other less obvious ones but at this point these basics should help you do some mental math about what the fields might look like.

Let me know if the link doesn't work or if you got questions. Hope this gives a very early state picture.

More Recap

The TFCAofGP meets made the switch over to Haverford and despite the variety of meets available this weekend, times were still strong this weekend. In Division One, Chester showcased another 800m man along side Jihad thanks to the win by Ryan Rucker over a strong runner in Isiah Fisher (2:04 to 2:05). In the mile Andrew Hanna ran a dominating race, winning in 4:32.95 over Connor McMenamin's 4:38.94. That's a really strong mark for Hanna but also another season best for McMenamin. Connor has improved consistently every week which is a great sign for a young runner. Evan Addison, just a frosh, made a three second drop in a matter of days to drop to 4:45. Strong win for Addison's teammate Goebel, 9:21 in the 3k, over Tucker Desko (9:29).

In the relays Pennridge got a strong win in the 4x800m over Boyertown 8:29.00 to 8:29.54. Pennridge took the win without Desko and likely had to fight off a strong leg from Boyertown's Dylan Eddinger, a sub 2 800m man already this year. The big relay result came in the DMR when LaSalle, fresh off a race at Haverford, won the race in 10:49.14, a mark that is among the state leaders this season. That's a great sign for them. Worth noting, CR South ran 11:04 without Andrew Hanna's 4:32 leg, a nice sign of depth. Also nice to see Hatboro Horsham's Casey Comber back racing, running the 1200m leg for an 11:11 DMR.

In Division II, Julian Degroot-Lutzner jumped into his first big mile after his strong showings at 3k and 800m and it worked out quite well. He ran 4:32.97 to outrun a great performance by sophomore Liam Galligan (4:37.0). Besides Ritz (and Kev James's split) there haven't been many jaw dropping performances thus far in the mile, just a lot of really solid performances. (Note: I don't think Power is going mile, I think just the 3k). That means guys like Lutzner, Hanna and more have intriguing medal cases, while guys like Galligan and McMenamin are going to be intriguing to watch as they have a ton of potential to drop more time because they are young and developing still in these meets. Strong first race back for Ryan James after a long lay off in 4:46. He's another youngster with potential to drop time in the coming months.

Strong win for Colin Wills of Malvern Prep (9:15) and his teammate Addison Mueller in the 800m (2:08). Combine those two with McDevitt and that's likely your DMR for MP. Keep an eye on Springfield DELCO as a sleeper DMR team. Justin Miller dropped a 9:25 3k to go along with Galligan's silver in the mile. Wissahickon got the win in the 4x8 in 8:30. Not a jaw dropping time, but this is a team I would keep an eye on looking ahead.

The DMR was the marquee event as O'Hara dropped the fastest time in PA behind a monster leg by XC silver medalist Kevin James (4:18 reported split). 10:48.14 is a second faster than LaSalle and was run without Jack Nolen and Ryan James. Ryan was their #2 during cross and Nolen was a member of the team's state runner up 4x8 last year so one of those guys could help them drop additional time looking ahead (or they could have some notable individuals outside of Kev in the upcoming weeks).

Radnor was a strong second in 11 flat, likely getting a strong split from Connor Holm. Radnor was a state medalist squad in last year's DMR and looks to be keeping the momentum going, even without Watson Hanson who graduated last year. Bishop Shanahan continues to drop a lot of time, dropping to 11:01 this week. Keep an eye out for their individuals to get a feel for exactly how this squad is constructed. I'd imagine it is a balanced approach to success. Bonner had a strong showing as well, dropping an 11:02. Rassater and Sullivan have each shown real potential in open events and likely had strong showings in the 12 and 16 on this relay. Apparently, Bonner had the best lead off leg in the race so one of these two likely showed up big time.

At the Lavino Relays, we saw the return of Jake Brophy (I'm assuming) to the CB East 4x8 who had their best race of the season, winning in 8:06.3. I'd be curious to hear splits on the relay, but I'd imagine Brophy and teammate Boucher ran strong. Close behind was Pennsbury's relay that dropped an 8:08 and finished 3rd. It's been reported that Sam Webb also made a big return, adding a 1:57 split to the relay. Apparently Sauer was not on the relay either which is encouraging for Pennsbury (although since he didn't race at the Armory it's possible he is having a few injury issues?). I was worried Webb might be injured after his fall on regionals, but it sounds like he is back and in excellent shape. Pennsbury's best performance would be the DMR I have to imagine. They have a perfect 16-12 combo in Webb and Sauer and likely have strong 800m pieces considering their recent 4x8 performance. But they have yet to load up a DM in recent years at states so we will see what they choose to do. The same may apply to CB East if Boucher can prove he has the strength for a 12 effort or maybe even Connor Sands can take 1200 duties. East has been much more willing to throw their cards into the DMR.

In the actual DMR, CRNorth put up a great time (10:51.98) to place second overall and tops in PA. Arita continues to be money for this team and his teammates set him up well, even after racing just a few days earlier at Haverford. Bensalem ran 10:57 to finish next for PA and then it was CB West in 11:09. Bensalem is now a factor in both relays, but as I've mentioned I doubt they will stray from the 4x8. CB West appears to have spread out key pieces in the DMR, 4x8 and SMR but it's hard to know for sure as I think many names listed are wrong. Splits and accurate info is always appreciated here at the blog.

Today at Ursinus, we saw an excellent 800m that was won by a strong runner from Carlisle. No not Zach Brehm, but Matt Wisner, who out ran Paul Power to win 2:00.31 to 2:01.31. That's a very fast mark for Wisner and bodes well for a potential Carlisle 4x8 run this outdoors. However, I'm not betting on the Carlisle boys giving a serious run this indoors, considering they have yet to do that in recent memory. For Power this has gotta be on the low edge of his range, but it's a real strong time. Power has been the best runner so far in terms of running and succeeding in a variety of events (with the exception of Sam Ritz who has yet to try a 3k but would likely excel). With Brophy, Webb, James and Comber coming back that reign will be challenged, but let's give respect to Power for his strong early season showing.

The Strath Haven boys did a nice job getting involved with a pair of 2:02 individuals Ahmir Gordon and Greg Kotchick. They also added a 2:07 run by David Reeves. Adding in Beckley from earlier this year, Haven has quitely become a strong 4x8 across the board. They have run a couple sub 8 4x8s indoors in past seasons and this may be a sleeper team for a sub 8 in 2015. By the end of the year I could definitely see this team in the 2010 Wissahickon type range (7:57 with consistent sub 2 type legs across the board). Nice run by Kev Lapsansky, continuing to drop time in the mile, running 4:38. Coatesville's Blake Ettien added a strong showing in 4:41.

The marquee meet was the Hispanic Games at the Armory. In the non-invitational mile, the boys from Conestoga got a couple strong performances, specifically from PJ Murray. He ran 4:29 to win his heat by roughly 5 seconds. His teammate Killian Nelson was impressive behind him in 4:38. With Marston (who ran 4:28 in the invitational heats) this is an intriguing DMR squad looking ahead. They are built more for a 4xMile, but when you have talented distance runners like this, you are going to be dangerous in a long distance relay. Murray has a legit shot at an individual medal in the mile if he keeps this up and with Marston's 3k potential, that may be how things end up. Strong showing by Jake Good of Abington who ran 4:35.

In the 2 mile, Seth Slavin ran an impressive 9:46.01. According to milesplit converters, that's worth roughly 9:02 for 3k. However, PTFCA conversions are probably going to slot that bad boy at only 9:07 or so, which is probably a huge difference in the end results. All the same, Slavin joins the other sophomores as a guy continuing to show excellent improvement.

In the 800m, Sam Ritz doubled back from his mile to run 1:57 and beat out one of PA's best 800m men in Khai Samuels (1:58). Penncrest's two stud 800m were also featured at the Hispanic Games as Emmanuel ran 1:59 and Kamat dropped to 2 flat. I'd imagine Penncrest will go all in on a 4x8 win like they did in 2012, meaning these guys will be kept fresh for the relay and give themselves the best chance at a title. Brendan Hanna ran 2:04.95 to join the front two. Penncrest is right in the mix with teams like CB East and Pennsbury in the early going with teams like State College and Strath Haven making solid moves around them. At this point, the 4x8 is very intriguing to me and still pretty wide open.

The invitational mile featured the star of PA mid distance so far this season: Sam Ritz. Apparently he took things out hard and paid a bit in the final part of the race (3:09ish through 1200m I've heard). This race was really fast across the board (Ritz's 4:14.59 ended up just 5th). Ritz is far and away the best miler in the state right now and his 1:57 double was pretty solid as well. It's still a long way to go until states, but he's the name to beat for the mile by a long shot until someone else steps up. Hopefully this effort by Ritz gets him a Millrose nod and he continues to represent PA well there.

What are your thoughts on the weekends action? Good work out there PA, keep going strong.

Weekly Action

A couple things:
1) I'll try my best not to repeat myself too much as some of the recent action I mentioned or touched on in other posts.
2) I have been doing my best to compile all the fastest times thus far from this indoor season, convert them using the standard PTFCA conversions and then make a ranking sheet for PA distance. This way people can get a better idea for who is in state qualifying position on a week to week basis. I'm planning to post it tomorrow once I have had a chance to update it for this weekend's action. If you see anyone who is missing, please let me know so I can add in the names and make the file as up to date as possible.

Now on to the recapping.

At Chester County, the Coatesville guys put together some nice performances. Tooles won the 800m in 2:04 by a comfortable 2 second margin (he was 1:57ish last year in the open), teammate Josh Okumura was 3rd in the mile in a sub 4:40 time and Blake Ettien was second in the 3k in 9:37, just a few seconds off Jack Carmody's winning effort. It will be interesting to see if Coatesville throws together any relays in the coming weeks and how effective they can be. Tooles against more competition in the 8 would be intriguing as well.

Diestelow continues to run strong this year. He's undefeated this season in the mile (and his 3k at F&M was also a gold medal performance) meaning in the right race he could still get a decent chunk faster. I'd like to see him mix in some other races like the 800m and the 3k a little bit more to keep some variety in the line up, but realistically under the current system, you have to make sure you run as fast as possible in the event you run at states so I understand why they are loading up on the 1609.

The next day at Haverford we saw an explosion of talent in the mile. I already covered the boys from LaSalle in my post from a couple days back (and there will be more to talk about in a couple meets) so I won't touch too much on them here, but they had a great showing with 7 guys at 4:48 or faster including Patrick Grant who ran 4:34 to finish second. The winner of this stacked mile was Brian Arita (4:33.54) which is right around his season best and one of the best early season times in the state. Arita looks like a potential sleeper pick for a medal in the mile thus far (and CRN has had a ton of recent success in this event with Wilson, Zingarini and Campbell) and I'm still very interested to see what he could run in a 3k. At states, however, it will likely be a Mile-DMR double for him to give his relay maximum chance at success.

In other news, the boys from Bensalem also mixed it up nicely in the mile. Their big three of Mays, Shah and Ramirez ran 4:39, 4:40 and 4:42. All of these times are very strong and with another piece they will have a very balanced attack in the 4x8 (they can run a nice DMR, as proven by Lavino, but this program tends to choose the 4x8 by states time). Patrick Dineen for Holy Ghost Prep ran a solid 4:38 as well that should not go overlooked. That's a pair of solid mid distance runs for Dineen after his 800m at TFCAofGP last weekend.

A little down the road, the GFS boys made their first appearance of the indoor season as Grayson Hepp and Nick Dahl ran 2:00.12 and 2:00.14 respectively to dominate the 800m field at Ursinsus. GFS is a DMR school and is usually willing to sacrifice individual events for a shot at a top medal in the DMR. Hepp and Dahl are really strong runners so they may get a shot in the mile similar to Aziz and Wistar from a few years ago, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a loaded, fresh GFS DMR at states. The key will be developing a strong enough middle portion of the relay to justify the move. I'm also looking forward to seeing Dahl and Hepp move up in distance. I think the 800m is probably on the low end of their range and Dahl can likely run a very quick 3k before all is said and done.

At the home of the state championships, we saw a surprising new entry to the State College Invitational: Aaron Gebhart. Gebhart had a pair of dominating wins in one of his first indoor races that I can recall, winning the mile in 4:32.6 and the 3k in 9:05.9. I'm thinking if he takes a fresh shot the 3k (assuming that came second which may not be true) he should be able to get himself into the 12 man state championship field. He's a name that I wasn't counting on being a factor this year, but his appearance adds to an already deep line up of 3k runners expected at states.

Meanwhile, Alex Milligan continues to roll (1:59.3 to win the 800m) and Brian Hackman continues to put up solid marks. Hackman was strong during cross and has now added 4:34ish and 2 flat marks during this track season. Great start to indoors for Hackman. I think Altoona and State College will both be very interesting relay teams this year. State College has the pieces for either a DMR or a 4x8 and both can be legit contenders. Altoona could also be sneaky good at the DMR (or 4x8). I'm curious to see how Sunderland's strong XC season and solid 3k this week translate into the 16/8 for relays. For the record I am big on the State College bandwagon at this point in the year. I think they are going to be strong contenders this indoors. They have shown me some sneaky good depth while also having a quality front runner in Milligan. Plus, they have the experience of watching and training with last year's state champs.

At F&M, JP McCaskey came out the gates very strong. They ran 8:23.15 to win the meet by roughly 20 seconds over Archbishop Carroll. 8:23 may not sound like much (it's not even a SQG) but it's among the leaders in the state for this point in the season, run on a slower track with less competition. Twin Valley ran 8:26 or so at Lehigh with no competition and they are a strong team (10:53 DMR). McCaskey's Nate Henderson, a sophomore medalist in XC, followed up the 4x8 with a 4:41.55 mile and a 9:43 3k. Not a bad triple for a sophomore in his first race back (assuming he was on the 4x8). Teammate Duncan Hopkins was second in the 3k with a time of 9:21.

Kyle Shinn from Wyomissing continues a strong indoor season, following up an early season 3k win with an impressive 4:36.95 mile to win by roughly 5 seconds. Keep an eye on Shinn if he makes a move to a faster track with faster competition. He's off to a very nice start to this season. Matt Bouldin (Archbishop Carroll) ran a dominating 2:03.65 800m and Nate Becker (Ephrata) won the 3k in 9:18. Both times are solid for this point in the season and put these runners into the state qualifying mix as of now.

On the West Coast, we saw our first pieces of action at Youngstown. I'm assuming this track was a flat track, so let me know if it was not. An impressive early season win for Ringgold in the 4x800m with an 8:35 run to beat Hempfield Area and Penn Hills. Ringgold's Noah Smith likely played a key role in the victory and competed in both the 1600m (4:46) and 3200m (10:24). That's a killer triple to have on the agenda for the first meet back. Jeff Van Kooten was the top PA runner in the 32 (10:09) and Eric Kennedy was tops in the 16 (4:41). The big story of the day was Andrew Koryak of Vincentian Academy who dropped an impressive 1:58.64 to take the victory in the 800m. Koryak was a strong AA 800m runner a year ago and gets off to an excellent start for this indoor season. I'm not completely convinced that Ritz or Lewis will run the 800m at states (and I'd be stunned if Ritz runs it fresh) which means the 800m is fairly wide open for the top few spots. That makes Koryak a compelling watch looking ahead.

At the Lebanon Valley Invite (results link if you haven't seen them: http://www.godutchmen.com/documents/2015/1/10//2015hsfinal.pdf?id=1013), a variety of District 3 teams came to the track to race. Nick Mahon of Wilson got another impressive 800m win, running 2:06.71. Mahon won an early 800m at Kutztown in around 2:04. A District 3 XC runner up Cooper Leslie from Camp Hill won the mile in 4:44 over Hempfield's Coby Mattes (4:47). Lower Dauphin's Sean Weidner ran 9:26 to win the 3k over a strong field that included Gabe Lamm (9:30), Coby Mattes (9:33), Nick Norton (9:34), Aiden Demko (9:40), and Zach Seiger (9:40). The time isn't jaw dropping for Weidner, but it's an impressive group of names that he was able to beat out and that should give him confidence going forward.

I'll be back to recap the last few meets of the weekend tonight/tomorrow! Don't want to tire you out with an absurdly long post.

Let's Explore

In Spring 2004, the Felix family was represented at the Penn Relays for possibly the first time. Running on a 4x100m relay squad for the St. Alphonsus CYO team, my brother Luke Felix, ran the lead off leg for both the trials and finals squad while I sat in the stands watching, no idea that 6 years later I'd get my chance to run there as well.

At the time, I was in 6th grade trying CYO track, but not really committing all the way and only kind of enjoying it. But my first teammates ever were a bunch of guys who filtered right into the LaSalle High School program and many of them ended becoming guys I mentioned a time or two on penntrack or on my blog.

Later on in my career, I witnessed my first state meet record in person thanks to Dan Lowry's 4:12 DMR anchor. My only chance for a gold medal at a TFCAofGP was taken away when our anchor got out kicked by the boys from LaSalle. At my house we had a Upper Dublin vs LaSalle vs North Penn volleyball match with a bunch of runners. After Upper Dublin won the Penn Relays DMR title in 2009, LaSalle took the title back for PA in 2013.

My family has always had a connection to LaSalle. My brother and I through running, a few of my cousins have either graduated from there or are heading that way in the next couple years. In some type of weird parallel universe, maybe I even could have ended up attending school there.

So naturally, I pay a little extra attention to LaSalle (as well as my alma mater Upper Dublin and the Suburban One American League) whenever I'm skipping through results. And frankly, it's been hard not to notice them.

Already state meet record holders in the DMR, LaSalle added another indoor state title in 2013. After graduating Coyle, Stone and Magee, three outdoor state finalists in their respective events, the 2014 LaSalle team continued the legacy with a virtually new squad, grabbing silver behind West Chester Henderson. 

As 2015 begins, LaSalle finds themselves reloading a bit again, losing Brendan Billotta, their state medalist in the mile from last indoors and leader of that silver medalist squad a year ago. 

This year's LaSalle squad was a force during cross country, riding a tight pack to a district championship and top 10 finish at states. The team was known for their incredible depth and absurd spreads, but also struggled to find a true front runner, a fact that may have been their undoing at the very difficult state championship.

However, LaSalle has come blazing out the gates on the track with a few runners showing signs they may be poised to develop into the star the team needs. At the Haverford Holiday meet the boys packed a slew of runners in at times that would currently place them in the trenches of state qualifying. Patrick Grant rocketed to 2nd in 4:34.56, while Brendan Price and Ryan Mitchell ran 4:40.08 and 4:40.36. Price is just a sophomore. Sean Princivalle was next for the squad in 4:42, followed by Stephen Paul (4:43) and Eddie Goebel (4:44). Throw in Evan Addison's strong 4:48 and LaSalle boasts 7 sub 4:50 men during the same indoor race in just January. That's impressive.

In the 800m, Stefan Sutton ran 2:02.78 to go toe to toe with John Daly for St Joe's Prep, who has been one of the state's early break out stars this season. Sutton ran 1:58 for LaSalle a year ago in the open 800m.

LaSalle has a ton of depth to work with, including 2:05 man from December Ian Challingsworth, 9:24 3k runner Stephen Paul and other top returners like Corey Driscoll and Michael Phayre.

LaSalle ran a strong early season 4x8 (8:23) which puts them in the mix for a state spot, but it's clear (to me at least) this team appears more likely to end up back in the DMR at states, fighting for yet another top finish. That will be especially true if one of their 7 milers can make another leap into the low 4:30s and join Grant, giving Sutton the ability to stay in his sweet spot at 800m. They also have a quality sprinter in Charles Headen who there is always a chance they could convince to move up.

LaSalle has quite a history in the relays. Here is there last 8 seasons:

2nd 4x8

1st DMR

8th 4x8 

4th 4x8

3rd 4x8

6th 4x8

1st DMR 

2nd DMR

That's a state medal in one distance relay ever single season. I'm honestly not sure any other team can boast that type of resume over that stretch. 2 state titles, 3 sub 8 relays, a meet record and no down years. 

That's the kind of history this year's LaSalle squad is competing with. That's no easy task, but it can also be confidence building. 

As of now, it's unclear exactly who this team will lean on for their relays. It has to be a hard job narrowing this team with double digit quality runners down to 3 or 4 to put a relay on the track. That's a decision I don't envy.

Hopefully that intersquad competition pushes these runners to their best. In the mean time, LaSalle will be chasing medals in both relays at the TFCAofGP meets thanks to their incredible depth.

It appears they have a knack for grabbing medals indoors ....

The Legacy

Joey Logue. Jeff Wiseman. Kyle Francis. The best 800m class the state has ever seen and three program changing talents are now gone from their respective teams.

Take a quick look at what these guys did in their time.

Logue was third at both indoor and outdoor states last year in the 800m but still ran the #6 indoor and #17 outdoor times in the entire history of the state. But Logue was most valuable to Pennridge as a relay runner, winning state titles in the 4x4 and 4x8, Logue anchored his team to the 2012 indoor state championship, the 2014 outdoor D1 championship and was a key leg on outdoor state finalist teams in 2011, 2012 and 2014 (plus 2 COA appearances). From the team he was a freshman onward he was helping Pennridge become relevant on a state level. When he graduated, they were relevant on a national scene.

Jeff Wiseman was the runner up at both the indoor and outdoor state championships in the 2014 800m, running times that rank #3 and #8 for indoors and outdoors on the state all time list. Wiseman won a pair of D1 titles in the 800m and was arguably the best overall 800m runner of the 2014 outdoor season. Wiseman led his CR South squad to state hard ware last year indoors on the 4x8 while also playing a key role on the team's 7:58 mark at leagues. 

Kyle Francis won the indoor and outdoor state titles in the 800m last year, both in meet record time. He is #1 and #5 on the state all time lists for the indoor and outdoor 800m respectively with a top 10 all time mark in the nation for his indoor performance. As a Junior Francis anchored Bensalem to 4x8 state championships both indoors and outdoors, splitting 1:51 during the swirling wins of the 2013 outdoor state championships (3 seconds faster than any other competitor that day including Alec Kunzweiler, Zach Brehm, Brad Rivera and Jon Lewis). Francis was also a member of Bensalem's district champion 4x8 as a sophomore and anchored the 2014 Bensalem squad to a state qualifying mark. He developed excellent foot speed, running key legs on Bensalem's all state 4x4s while also having the strength to break 15:50 in the 5k. Francis was a part of a track team championship and the senior leader on arguably Bensalem's best country team of the past decade. 

The idea of replacing any of these runners is absurd. These kind of talents come along once in a generation. However, Pennridge, CR South and Bensalem are all trying to stay relevant in the track scene and all, so far at least, are doing a fantastic job with the task.

Let's start with the boys from Pennridge. A year ago they ran 7:45 and after graduating 1:51 man Logue and consistent sub 2 leg Matt Shulberger, there were questions about how relevant this team would be in 2014. But here's the thing, you don't run 7:45 with one or two guys (even if one guy splits 1:52, your other three legs gotta be at least 1:57 and change).

Alex Masgai and Dan Williams return this season after fantastic outdoors. Williams really developed quickly into one of the states best kept secrets, splitting at least 1:57 on multiple occasions and Masgai has quality 400m speed to couple with his sub 2 ability. 

The other thing worth noting here: Pennridge has produced a slew of 8 flat relays over the past two years without their star runner, Logue. In fact, in 2013 they nearly qualified for states without him. Guys like Jeff Espinal are just waiting to step into the gaps left by the graduating and seniors and make an impact. Throw in returning 50. man Ben Howell and sleeper miler Tucker Desko (4:43 already this year) and you have nice 4x8 and DMR potential for the Rams. And they have done just that, running a PA #10 DMR and then doubling back to win the 4x8 at Christmas City Relays. 

What people may not realize is that when Wiseman graduated CR South, he took the teams other top 800m talent with him. Ryan Dreeman, Mike Boggs and Steve Hanna all graduated, guys with PRs right around the 2 minute barrier and arguably the 3 best 2 lappers behind Wiseman on CR South's roster in 2014.

But this year this squad hasn't missed a beat. Andrew Hanna and Joe MaGuire, the teams top runners, both were among the leaders in the conference and district this past XC season. They have carried the momentum through to the track, where MaGuire and Hanna are currently floating around the state top 10 in the 3k and mile respectively. A few other solid middistance guys like Silverthorn have also come out of the woodwork early in the season. As a result CR South has run 10:53.53 in the DMR, the number 1 time in the state. They added an 8:23.09 for good measure (#7 mark in the state) this past weekend at Lehigh.

And lastly, consider Bensalem. After graduating the reigning indoor 800m state champion back to back years, Bensalem has continued to stay relevant. Tayji Mays finished in the top 50 at the 2014 XC state championships, the only top 50 finish for the team in the last 9 seasons. Then Bensalem rolled into the track behind Rahi Shah, Alex Ramirez and Mays to beat out a top notch 4x8 field in 8:18.78 (currently #3 in the state). They also return hurdler/sprinter Massaquoi who could be a wildcard 800m runner if this team needs him to be. Bensalem has an excellent opportunity to continue to hang with the state's elite this season in the 4x8.

All these times may have lost an amazing talent, but none are feeling sorry for themselves. In fact, these teams are running confident and inspired. Perhaps the strength of last year's 800m studs was not just their amazing times. They didn't just help their school's with key relay legs, they also helped establish a standard of excellence. A legacy that their teammates will give everything to uphold, even after they have graduated.

And somewhere I'm sure Logue, Wiseman and Francis are smiling. Their legacy is in good hands.

4x800? More like 4x ain't hundred

I've run too many 4x800s in my life to even keep track. I've seen every combination of orders imaginable (and even imagined a few what could have beens). I've seen teams front load a relay, backload a relay, run their best runner 2nd or 3rd, all sorts of combinations.

And I've seen just about all of them work. The key with any relay is to stay competitive as long as possible, give your legs the best competition and, most importantly, find a way to win. 

In the past 8 years, 33 teams have cracked 8 minutes at the indoor state meet (significantly more than the 20 sub 10:30) even though the state qualifying standard for the individual 800m has been above 2 minutes each of those 8 years. So basically teams have gotten good enough at running 800m to have 4 guys average faster than the SQS every year (including 6 teams in 2014!).

Now I, like many probably, figure this will be a bit of a down year in both relays. The basic logic is last year the XC teams were better so the relays ought to be better. Is this a fair assessment? Not really, because as has been pointed out astutely by others, the 800m and the 5000m are dramatically different events. However, the XC state championship team has produced sub 8 minute 4x8s at indoor states in 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2013 (in 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2014 they opted for the DMR). However, the state champs in the 4x8 in 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 all didn't even qualify for states as a team during the previous fall.

So basically I have no idea where I'm going with this. Let's move on ...

When I spoke about the DMR, I talked about game changers and the prevalence of state champion miles on DMRs. So the logical question is: is the 4x800m peppered with past, present and future state champs?

Out of the last 12 names to win an indoor or outdoor AAA state championship, just 4 names have also been a part of a sub 8 4x8 at indoor states: Tom Mallon, Hong Cho, Brad Rivera and Kyle Francis (Rivera and Francis were on the same squad as well). That's a significantly lower percentage than mile state champs and the sub 10:30 barrier, despite the fact that 10:30 is a more challenging mark. It's 4/12 (33%) to 9/15 (60%) or 8/12 (67%) depending on years or last 12. We are talking double here.

(PS no offense meant to AA, those teams just don't run indoors often, so I felt that comparison would be unfair).

So what exactly does it take to run sub 8 indoors? Because I haven't exactly said anything that even begins to help answer that question.

My best answer to the question is probably, be North Penn. They've broke the 8 minute mark at 5 out of the last 8 state championships. Part of this is their refusal to run the DMR, they have never competed at states in the DM, and part of it is school size, but part of it is having an excellent program with runners who buy into it. 

(that 2012 squad with Trimble and Macauley was built beautifully for a DMR and I'm still in the "they would have won states" camp. Of course could you say the same for LaSalle and Haven in that year? Sorry getting way off topic ....)

I think the formula for success indoors has a lot to do with balance. It's about not having a weak leg to hold you back, keep good position on the track, staying out of the boxes and having to pass a limited amount of guys. The 800m is close to a sprint and on the tight turns of an indoor track, guys can use an extra bit of space.

State College in 2014, Pennridge in 2012, and CB West in 2011 all had no weak legs. They won state titles. North Penn's 2008 squad had 3 guys who took top 6 spots in the open 800m and doubled back to join Quintrell, who split 1:57.0 on the lead off leg and shut out anyone else's chances.

There have been some teams with game changers like Coyle, Stone, Huemmler, Caldwell, Belfatto, Smart, James, etc but those teams didn't end up winning titles because they couldn't catch up to the consistent teams running out front.

It also helps to have fresh legs involved. CB West opted to keep a completely fresh team in 2011 and they upset Abington, whose seed time was roughly 15 seconds faster coming in and won a national championship soon after states in the 4x8. State College opted to sacrifice some individual glory for the guys behind Cather so they could hold off the doubling efforts of O'Hara, who doubled all 3 of their big names (ironically also won a national championship soon after). 2012 Pennridge, 2013 Henderson, and 2010 Wissahickon are all top 3 teams that opted for completely fresh squads and, as a result, surprised their competition.

Because here's the thing, there have been 33 sub 8 teams, but there have been just 10 sub 7:54.5 teams, about one a year vs 4 a year. You can break 8 without having your best day, but things really need to click to blast into 7:50 territory.

Something else interesting, after North Penn finished 1st, 1st, 2nd in three years, there have been 6 different state championship teams in 6 years. That's different than the DMR where Henderson has 3 and LaSalle has 2 since 07.

In fact, a team hasn't even had back to back sub 8s since CB West in 2011-2012 (and 2010). That's a trend SC and Penncrest will be looking to break and a trend Pennsbury feels pretty good about.

Also worth noting, 4x800m relays defend their titles quite well outdoors. They've successfully defended outdoors in 6/8 of the last seasons, the other two years were the only years D3 teams won the 4x8 title outdoors: 2010 and 2012 (probably not a coincidence, the D3 teams usually fly under the radar until outdoors).

So when you piece it all together, what does this mean for 2015?

In my expert opinion .... No idea.

I'm just going to pull up a seat and see what adjustments I'll have to make to the history books.

The DMR

With only 12 spots on the line there will be plenty of discussion, tactics and nerve racking anticipation in the distance relays: the 4x800m and the DMR. 

As Forrest described quite well in his most recent post, the major difference in the new state qualifying procedure is the 4x8, cut from two heats down to one (don't worry guys there will be nine combined heats of the 4x2 and 4x4). So it becomes incredibly important to focus on succeeding in one relay, running it at meet of champs and then excelling at states. 

It's going to be likely going to be like the DMR in the NCAA where the last weekend all the teams load up and even the top seed going into the week couldn't suddenly find themselves on the outside looking in. 

But enough ranting that's not what I want to talk about (or at least not what I want to talk about right now). Today is a day to talk about the DMR itself, my favorite event in track and field.

Indoors is the only time we really get to appreciate the DMR (with the exception of Penn Relays) and Penn State is the only place where state golds are handed out in the event. 

It's a tricky beast to get just right, only 20 teams teams have managed to crack 10:30 at the state championship since the 2007 season when the DMR came back into the picture. The 8 state champs in that span have been Henderson 3 times, LaSalle twice, Wissahickon, Upper Dublin and Great Valley. Keep in mind this is entirely made up of teams associated with the TFCAofGP (although it feels like Henderson races so rarely there, I'm not even sure they are still in it), the only title that the TFCAofGP has dominated for all 8 years. I don't think it's a coincidence either: these teams get the chance to race this bizzare event far more often than the other top teams and they can prefect pacing on the 1200m and mile legs and get a well defined order in place to excel at states.

There are a few different tactics teams have employed to varying degrees of success. There is the "Get out hard and hold on" approach, as displayed by teams like 2012 Great Valley (Ned Willig), 2014 Henderson (Tony Russell), and 2011 Wissahickon (Hong Cho). There is also the "Keep it close before we get the stick around to our ace in the hole" displayed by teams like 2010 Altoona (Wade Endress) 2008 LaSalle (Dan Lowry) and 2013 Strath Haven (Jack Huemmler).

Both strategies have upside and downside. The teams that blast it out early keep their 400m man out of traffic, running hard and at the front. The 800m gets it in front as well against top competition or with some wiggle room and the anchor has to properly pace in order to bring it home. This takes proper pacing and puts a lot of pressure on your anchor, who is likely not your best runner since that runner was required in the 1200m to get you the lead. If your anchor is not experienced, a strong kicker or a smart racer you are left very vulnerable against other teams top flight anchors.

On the flipside, if you hold your anchor out too long and he falls farther and farther behind, you leave a lot of pressure on one person. Catching up is hard. There is plenty of time over the course of a mile, but if you go out too quickly, you could get discouraged and tired and have nothing left to make a late charge. It takes a mentally strong and tactically proficient anchor to manage his energy and not give up in the face of adversity.

Of course many teams have the luxury of being able to use game changers at a pair of legs. Some teams choose to use their aces on the 1200m and 1600m (2013 LaSalle, 2007 Henderson) others opt for the back loaded squad (2009 Upper Dublin, 2010 Henderson). Teams with two game changers rarely ever lose. There is just too much fire power to overcome.

I define game changers as all-state individuals in the 800m or 1600m. These guys are cream of the crop type studs. By my count over the last 8 years there have been 5 teams with 2 game changers, 4 won state titles and one was just inches away from a title (2010 Altoona lost to another double game changer squad in 2010 Henderson by less than a tenth). That Altoona squad had a game changing anchor and 400m (Brady Gehret) while the state champ teams had game changers at two distance events. That was the difference.

But you can win state titles with just one game changer (4 teams have). It doesn't need to necessarily be a game changing anchor either as Wissahickon, Great Valley and Henderson have proven. Not to say those anchors weren't strong (especially Stratman) but none of them were sub 4:17 guys.

Teams can have success without a game changer, but it's difficult. 2010 GFS was 3rd at states with a 10:23.71 despite having 0 true game changers. But they were a balanced squad, surprised there way to NXN Nationals and continued to run confidently that indoors. CRN placed 2nd at states in 2013, running 10:20.34. They had Zingarini anchoring, who I count as a game changer, but he was never a state champion level runner.

To be frank, you need somebody quick on the anchor to run under 10:30. And to break 10:25 you need a sub 4:20 guy, almost no questions asked. Here are the 20 anchors of the sub 10:30 teams at indoor states since '07 with a rough guess at PRs.

10:21 Chris Ferry (4:19 split)

10:23 Nick Crits (4:13 then 4:11)

10:24 Max Kaulbach (4:19 split, 4:11 as senior)

10:28 Joe Dorris (4:21 split, 9:26 3200)

10:15 Dan Lowry (4:12 split and 4:12.0c outdoors)

10:29 Nick Bonaventure (4:20 and 9:20 as senior)

10:19 Mike Palmisano (4:13 and 1:51 split)

10:28 Jon Pickhaver (mid 4:20s, 9:30ish)

10:21 Will Kellar (4:12)

10:21 Wade Endress (4:11c and 4:15ish as jr)

10:23 Gus McKenzie (4:19)

10:25 Bobby Bishop (4:18ish as a soph)

10:28 Dillon Farrell (mid 4:20s, mid 9:20s)

10:23 Billy Wolffe (mid 4:20s, 1:55 split)

10:28 Zach Israel (mid 4:20s, 9:20s)

10:19 Tom Coyle (4:11 and 1:51)

10:20 James Zingarini (4:14-4:15)

10:20 Jack Huemmler (4:12)

10:28 Alec Kunzweiler (4:16 and 1:51)

10:24 Eric Stratman (4:17-4:18)

So you can see there is a good mix of names, but a ton of the best milers from the last 8 years find a way to make an appearance.

Also worth noting no one who ran the 3k at states has ever been part of a sub 10:30 team at states. And no one has tripled successfully in the DMR. These facts crippled chances for All time greats like Weller, Gil and Mallon to make an appearance in the sub 10:30 club.

I mean it's not rocket science. The mile is the longest piece of the relay and thus most important. If you are clearly the best at this piece of the relay, you can make up a ton more ground than if you have the best quarter miler (unless you are Brady Gehret and can split 47-48 I guess).

Think of it this way, the best high school miler ever (by PR) is also the anchor of the national record holders in the DMR (Alan Webb). 

That's why I'm always in favor of putting your best runner on the anchor. No matter what. At the end of the day I want my best guy with the stick in hand and only the finish line to go. I trust him to do whatever it takes and I give him the most distance to make magic happens. Plus I think it's easier to run when you know "my job is to keep it close" and my boy Wade will win" then to think, "I've got to get a huge lead before I hand off to Jarrett and he blows it".

Obviously every situation is unique, but when it doubt that's just my thinking.

So which teams will emerge as contenders? Which game changers will rise to lead? Which teams will break the trend?

The 2015 race to get in the DMR has begun.