15 Laps and A Lot of Decisions

I've never run an indoor 3k. Quite frankly I'm not sure I ever want to (although there's a chance in two weeks I end up doing it anyway). It takes some strong athletes to put their mind and bodies on the line for 15 laps around the track. 

As if running those 15 laps wasn't enough trouble, the 3k at states is positioned uncomfortably close to the relays (4x8 and DMR) and all other individual events are packed in before it, meaning for any runner serious about the 3k, the mile is off the table.

I'm not going to argue the 3k belongs in another spot or anything: I think this is the right place for it in the line up. That being said, 3k runners are put in a very difficult situation when filling in their schedule for the championships at Penn State.

There have been many strategies for individuals in the 3k who also have potential top 5 relay squads waiting around for the end of the meet. The first is most obvious: run the 3k and then run the relay on tired legs. 

The 3k is a brutal event, especially if things are quick from the gun. Coming back with heavy legs for a relay is risky business, especially a key leg of the DMR. No one has been a part of a sub 10:30 DMR at states after running the 3k earlier in the meet. Literally no one (or at least no one I can think of). That stat is compelling, especially when you consider some of the names that have done the 3k, DMR double. State champs like Ryan Gil, Jason Weller, Terrence Lee and Mark Dennin all couldn't pull off the double. It's really challenging.

But there have been success stories. Last year alone guys like Christian Kardish for Holy Ghost Prep and Cole Nissley (I think he was on the relay) helped lead their teams to medals. Billy McDevitt from Malvern Prep also was likely doubling back on the DMR after his 3k and Prep grabbed some hardware. So clearly it's not an impossible double, but it really decreases your chance of getting a killer time and, depending on the year, finishing in the top 3-5 teams.

The 4x8 has also had it's share of success stories. Last year Kevin James doubled back to help his O'Hara team grab second place in the 4x8. In 2008 CB East's Josh Izewski ran 8:30 in the 3k and followed it up with a killer anchor leg for his 4x8, which ended up second overall behind meet record setters North Penn. O'Hara's Dan Savage also tried the 3k-4x8 double in 2012, but he was spent after a fantastic 3k run and couldn't hold serve with Henderson and Bensalem.

Another strategy has been to dodge the 3k and instead chase the mile to maximize rest time. Ross Wilson did that last year for CRNorth and it helped him get his squad to the medal stand. In 2012, the GFS boys Sami Aziz and Lyle Wistar took on the mile rather than the 3k so they would have more time to double back in the DMR and helped the team place in the top 5. Aziz had been 3rd in the 3k at states the previous year and was the top returner in the race so this was a fairly large sacrifice (although Aziz would have had his hands full in the deepest 3k in state history). These runners still get the chance to compete for medals (and in many cases they get those medals) but sometimes they give up a realistic chance at state gold in the process. If the 3k is their best event, they are putting themselves at a disadvantage in the medal chase and still tiring themselves out at least a bit, hurting their DMR chances. 

That being said the mile-DMR and mile-4x8 doubles are easier doubles not only because the race itself is shorter, but because there is significantly more time between events. The mile is almost first and the DMR is almost last.

The last two strategies go hand in hand. Go all in on the relay or Go all in on the individual race. Sometimes runners are willing and able to sacrifice for their relay. Sometimes a runner is carrying a relay and coaches see it as unfair to that athlete to have them sacrifice their individual potential for a sub par relay.

I've seen things happen both ways. Dustin Wilson in 2011 gave up not just the 3k (where he would have been among the title favorites) but also the mile (where he had the PA #1 time for most of the year) to try and help his DMR get a top spot. Wilson was a Junior then so he was willing to make the sacrifice, however he was an injury away from that decision coming back to haunt him. Chestnut Hill Academy was a borderline medal team with Wilson and ended up 9th.

In other cases guys have completely ditched individual events and it has paid off. Dillon Farrell was a potential 3k medalist in 2011 and had actually beaten Wilson earlier that season. But Wissahickon knew their state title hopes died without a fresh Farrell, so Dillon gave up his medal and shot and it ended up being worth it: Wissahickon won the state title. However, if Wissahickon ends up 5th or 6th (the pack behind Farrell was very tightly grouped) I'd imagine he thinks of that decision less fondly.

Then there is the 2008 GFS approach. They had a fantastic DMR (they won Penn Relays that spring) but they had three individuals who had shots to grab medals in individual events. So they ran the 3 distance guys that would go on to win Penn Relays in individuals events and none of them doubled back for the DMR, instead they put out a completely fresh "B" squad.

Max Kaulbach won the mile and medaled in the 3k as a result. Jake McKenzie and Isaac Ortiz also had medal worthy individual performances in the 3k and mile respectively. As for the relay? That "B" squad beat out a lot of teams "A" teams and grabbed a state medal anyway.

It was a great learning experience for that DMR, especially considering that in 2010 many of the same runners from the 2008 team found themselves right in the hunt for a state title in the DMR including Gus McKenzie and Tom Waterman.

For the record in 2010 GFS kept all of their guys completely fresh for the relay, despite having multiple guys seeded in or close to medal position. They finished around 10:25 in third and ended up the only PA team to compete at Penn Relays in the DMR.

So pretty successful strategy I would say?

But it's not always easy to see the whole picture and it's certainly very difficult to predict the future. So what do the boys in 2015 do about this predicament?

There will be a slew of guys with competing interests this year. For starters, reigning XC state champ and top state returner from last year's 3k Jake Brophy is also a part of the state's #1 4x8. CB East has also shown signs they can throw down an excellent DMR. Brophy may be in line for an Izewski like double, but he may also consider giving up the 3k for the easier mile 4x8/DMR double. Brophy gave up all individual events last outdoors to help his team in the 4x8 (they ended up an impressive 3rd) and they needed his 1:55-1:56 split to reach their potential. But last indoors and at Penn Relays, East let Brophy chase the 3k. Indoors he was a top contender and he delivered, finishing 2nd. At Penn he finished disappointingly far back in a stacked an fast field. That may have been the deciding factor for Brophy when he opted to pull the plug on the 3200m. 

After a state title in cross, it's hard for me to imagine Brophy not competing in an individual event, but I think the mile is in play. Brophy's speed has improved in the past year (unsurprisingly considering his brother was a 400m state medalist) and a variety of footlocker finalists have chosen to work on speed during their shortened indoors (Furcht, Springer, McNally, Wilson, Russell, Barchet, Gil to name a few).

Alongside Brophy, is #2 returner Kevin James from o'Hara. OH just ran the #1 DMR in the state and the record for 3k-DMR doubling is shaky at best. KJ has had a ton of close calls for state titles, so would it be fair, as a senior, for him to give up his 3k for the mile and a battle with Sam Ritz?

On the flip side, there will be guys who emerge in the 3k (like Brophy) that could be just as formidable as Ritz. James also has proved he has killer speed, splitting 4:17-4:18 in his first meet back. Last year he ran about 4:12y in the mile so it's not like he's out of his league in the mile. 

Regardless, O'Hara hasn't been afraid to double their guys in recent years. They let James do the mile and 3k as a sophomore when they chose to load a 4x8 rather than DM. The next year all 3 of their top runners doubled to try and maximize points in a team trophy pursuit. That led to a 4x8 rather than a DMR. O'Hara is fine waiting until Nationals to showcase their excellent DMR potential, they have done it twice in a row now. But is nationals more important than a shot at state gold for a team that has had so many close calls?

Beyond these two big names lots of other guys will have tough calls. Sam Webb and Pennsbury have a top notch 4x8 and one of the best 800m men in the state in Alek Sauer. They may not need Webb if they ran 8:08 without Sauer, but a 1:57 leg never hurts. Plus, Webb has shown the ability to double 3200m-4x8 two years in a row now, so I think he can handle the 3k-4x8 if necessary. The real question will be if Pennsbury is willing to give up a chance at a really good DMR (sub 10:20 is in play) for a 4x8 battle with CB East, Penncrest, State College and maybe even LaSalle or O'Hara depending on how things shake out?

Andrew Marston and Conestoga already have 2 milers sub 4:30 and another under 4:40. Murray looks great one meet in and Marston was huge for these guys during cross. Stoga has real potential in the DMR, especially if they decide to be one of the only fresh teams involved in the race. But that would require Marston to pass on the 3k (and possibly Murray to pass on a medal shot in the mile). Stoga was second at states in XC and seems like a team first squad, so maybe this is in play, but that's asking a bunch of Marston.

Billy McDevitt, Seth Slavin, Joe MaGuire and Andrew Hanna are all among the leaders in the 3k through the early portion of January. McDevitt and Malvern Prep have something to prove this year in the DMR, but their stock falls a bit if McDevitt is doubling off the 3k. MaGuire and Hanna are running phenomenally for a sneaky good CR South team that should be a sleeper pick for the DMR state title. That doesn't happen if MaGuire and/or Hanna is double dipping with the 3000. 

A lot will change in the next month and a half, but keep an eye on these plot lines and the results that will shape the most interesting stories of the state entry struggle.