The DMR

With only 12 spots on the line there will be plenty of discussion, tactics and nerve racking anticipation in the distance relays: the 4x800m and the DMR. 

As Forrest described quite well in his most recent post, the major difference in the new state qualifying procedure is the 4x8, cut from two heats down to one (don't worry guys there will be nine combined heats of the 4x2 and 4x4). So it becomes incredibly important to focus on succeeding in one relay, running it at meet of champs and then excelling at states. 

It's going to be likely going to be like the DMR in the NCAA where the last weekend all the teams load up and even the top seed going into the week couldn't suddenly find themselves on the outside looking in. 

But enough ranting that's not what I want to talk about (or at least not what I want to talk about right now). Today is a day to talk about the DMR itself, my favorite event in track and field.

Indoors is the only time we really get to appreciate the DMR (with the exception of Penn Relays) and Penn State is the only place where state golds are handed out in the event. 

It's a tricky beast to get just right, only 20 teams teams have managed to crack 10:30 at the state championship since the 2007 season when the DMR came back into the picture. The 8 state champs in that span have been Henderson 3 times, LaSalle twice, Wissahickon, Upper Dublin and Great Valley. Keep in mind this is entirely made up of teams associated with the TFCAofGP (although it feels like Henderson races so rarely there, I'm not even sure they are still in it), the only title that the TFCAofGP has dominated for all 8 years. I don't think it's a coincidence either: these teams get the chance to race this bizzare event far more often than the other top teams and they can prefect pacing on the 1200m and mile legs and get a well defined order in place to excel at states.

There are a few different tactics teams have employed to varying degrees of success. There is the "Get out hard and hold on" approach, as displayed by teams like 2012 Great Valley (Ned Willig), 2014 Henderson (Tony Russell), and 2011 Wissahickon (Hong Cho). There is also the "Keep it close before we get the stick around to our ace in the hole" displayed by teams like 2010 Altoona (Wade Endress) 2008 LaSalle (Dan Lowry) and 2013 Strath Haven (Jack Huemmler).

Both strategies have upside and downside. The teams that blast it out early keep their 400m man out of traffic, running hard and at the front. The 800m gets it in front as well against top competition or with some wiggle room and the anchor has to properly pace in order to bring it home. This takes proper pacing and puts a lot of pressure on your anchor, who is likely not your best runner since that runner was required in the 1200m to get you the lead. If your anchor is not experienced, a strong kicker or a smart racer you are left very vulnerable against other teams top flight anchors.

On the flipside, if you hold your anchor out too long and he falls farther and farther behind, you leave a lot of pressure on one person. Catching up is hard. There is plenty of time over the course of a mile, but if you go out too quickly, you could get discouraged and tired and have nothing left to make a late charge. It takes a mentally strong and tactically proficient anchor to manage his energy and not give up in the face of adversity.

Of course many teams have the luxury of being able to use game changers at a pair of legs. Some teams choose to use their aces on the 1200m and 1600m (2013 LaSalle, 2007 Henderson) others opt for the back loaded squad (2009 Upper Dublin, 2010 Henderson). Teams with two game changers rarely ever lose. There is just too much fire power to overcome.

I define game changers as all-state individuals in the 800m or 1600m. These guys are cream of the crop type studs. By my count over the last 8 years there have been 5 teams with 2 game changers, 4 won state titles and one was just inches away from a title (2010 Altoona lost to another double game changer squad in 2010 Henderson by less than a tenth). That Altoona squad had a game changing anchor and 400m (Brady Gehret) while the state champ teams had game changers at two distance events. That was the difference.

But you can win state titles with just one game changer (4 teams have). It doesn't need to necessarily be a game changing anchor either as Wissahickon, Great Valley and Henderson have proven. Not to say those anchors weren't strong (especially Stratman) but none of them were sub 4:17 guys.

Teams can have success without a game changer, but it's difficult. 2010 GFS was 3rd at states with a 10:23.71 despite having 0 true game changers. But they were a balanced squad, surprised there way to NXN Nationals and continued to run confidently that indoors. CRN placed 2nd at states in 2013, running 10:20.34. They had Zingarini anchoring, who I count as a game changer, but he was never a state champion level runner.

To be frank, you need somebody quick on the anchor to run under 10:30. And to break 10:25 you need a sub 4:20 guy, almost no questions asked. Here are the 20 anchors of the sub 10:30 teams at indoor states since '07 with a rough guess at PRs.

10:21 Chris Ferry (4:19 split)

10:23 Nick Crits (4:13 then 4:11)

10:24 Max Kaulbach (4:19 split, 4:11 as senior)

10:28 Joe Dorris (4:21 split, 9:26 3200)

10:15 Dan Lowry (4:12 split and 4:12.0c outdoors)

10:29 Nick Bonaventure (4:20 and 9:20 as senior)

10:19 Mike Palmisano (4:13 and 1:51 split)

10:28 Jon Pickhaver (mid 4:20s, 9:30ish)

10:21 Will Kellar (4:12)

10:21 Wade Endress (4:11c and 4:15ish as jr)

10:23 Gus McKenzie (4:19)

10:25 Bobby Bishop (4:18ish as a soph)

10:28 Dillon Farrell (mid 4:20s, mid 9:20s)

10:23 Billy Wolffe (mid 4:20s, 1:55 split)

10:28 Zach Israel (mid 4:20s, 9:20s)

10:19 Tom Coyle (4:11 and 1:51)

10:20 James Zingarini (4:14-4:15)

10:20 Jack Huemmler (4:12)

10:28 Alec Kunzweiler (4:16 and 1:51)

10:24 Eric Stratman (4:17-4:18)

So you can see there is a good mix of names, but a ton of the best milers from the last 8 years find a way to make an appearance.

Also worth noting no one who ran the 3k at states has ever been part of a sub 10:30 team at states. And no one has tripled successfully in the DMR. These facts crippled chances for All time greats like Weller, Gil and Mallon to make an appearance in the sub 10:30 club.

I mean it's not rocket science. The mile is the longest piece of the relay and thus most important. If you are clearly the best at this piece of the relay, you can make up a ton more ground than if you have the best quarter miler (unless you are Brady Gehret and can split 47-48 I guess).

Think of it this way, the best high school miler ever (by PR) is also the anchor of the national record holders in the DMR (Alan Webb). 

That's why I'm always in favor of putting your best runner on the anchor. No matter what. At the end of the day I want my best guy with the stick in hand and only the finish line to go. I trust him to do whatever it takes and I give him the most distance to make magic happens. Plus I think it's easier to run when you know "my job is to keep it close" and my boy Wade will win" then to think, "I've got to get a huge lead before I hand off to Jarrett and he blows it".

Obviously every situation is unique, but when it doubt that's just my thinking.

So which teams will emerge as contenders? Which game changers will rise to lead? Which teams will break the trend?

The 2015 race to get in the DMR has begun.