4x800? More like 4x ain't hundred

I've run too many 4x800s in my life to even keep track. I've seen every combination of orders imaginable (and even imagined a few what could have beens). I've seen teams front load a relay, backload a relay, run their best runner 2nd or 3rd, all sorts of combinations.

And I've seen just about all of them work. The key with any relay is to stay competitive as long as possible, give your legs the best competition and, most importantly, find a way to win. 

In the past 8 years, 33 teams have cracked 8 minutes at the indoor state meet (significantly more than the 20 sub 10:30) even though the state qualifying standard for the individual 800m has been above 2 minutes each of those 8 years. So basically teams have gotten good enough at running 800m to have 4 guys average faster than the SQS every year (including 6 teams in 2014!).

Now I, like many probably, figure this will be a bit of a down year in both relays. The basic logic is last year the XC teams were better so the relays ought to be better. Is this a fair assessment? Not really, because as has been pointed out astutely by others, the 800m and the 5000m are dramatically different events. However, the XC state championship team has produced sub 8 minute 4x8s at indoor states in 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2013 (in 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2014 they opted for the DMR). However, the state champs in the 4x8 in 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 all didn't even qualify for states as a team during the previous fall.

So basically I have no idea where I'm going with this. Let's move on ...

When I spoke about the DMR, I talked about game changers and the prevalence of state champion miles on DMRs. So the logical question is: is the 4x800m peppered with past, present and future state champs?

Out of the last 12 names to win an indoor or outdoor AAA state championship, just 4 names have also been a part of a sub 8 4x8 at indoor states: Tom Mallon, Hong Cho, Brad Rivera and Kyle Francis (Rivera and Francis were on the same squad as well). That's a significantly lower percentage than mile state champs and the sub 10:30 barrier, despite the fact that 10:30 is a more challenging mark. It's 4/12 (33%) to 9/15 (60%) or 8/12 (67%) depending on years or last 12. We are talking double here.

(PS no offense meant to AA, those teams just don't run indoors often, so I felt that comparison would be unfair).

So what exactly does it take to run sub 8 indoors? Because I haven't exactly said anything that even begins to help answer that question.

My best answer to the question is probably, be North Penn. They've broke the 8 minute mark at 5 out of the last 8 state championships. Part of this is their refusal to run the DMR, they have never competed at states in the DM, and part of it is school size, but part of it is having an excellent program with runners who buy into it. 

(that 2012 squad with Trimble and Macauley was built beautifully for a DMR and I'm still in the "they would have won states" camp. Of course could you say the same for LaSalle and Haven in that year? Sorry getting way off topic ....)

I think the formula for success indoors has a lot to do with balance. It's about not having a weak leg to hold you back, keep good position on the track, staying out of the boxes and having to pass a limited amount of guys. The 800m is close to a sprint and on the tight turns of an indoor track, guys can use an extra bit of space.

State College in 2014, Pennridge in 2012, and CB West in 2011 all had no weak legs. They won state titles. North Penn's 2008 squad had 3 guys who took top 6 spots in the open 800m and doubled back to join Quintrell, who split 1:57.0 on the lead off leg and shut out anyone else's chances.

There have been some teams with game changers like Coyle, Stone, Huemmler, Caldwell, Belfatto, Smart, James, etc but those teams didn't end up winning titles because they couldn't catch up to the consistent teams running out front.

It also helps to have fresh legs involved. CB West opted to keep a completely fresh team in 2011 and they upset Abington, whose seed time was roughly 15 seconds faster coming in and won a national championship soon after states in the 4x8. State College opted to sacrifice some individual glory for the guys behind Cather so they could hold off the doubling efforts of O'Hara, who doubled all 3 of their big names (ironically also won a national championship soon after). 2012 Pennridge, 2013 Henderson, and 2010 Wissahickon are all top 3 teams that opted for completely fresh squads and, as a result, surprised their competition.

Because here's the thing, there have been 33 sub 8 teams, but there have been just 10 sub 7:54.5 teams, about one a year vs 4 a year. You can break 8 without having your best day, but things really need to click to blast into 7:50 territory.

Something else interesting, after North Penn finished 1st, 1st, 2nd in three years, there have been 6 different state championship teams in 6 years. That's different than the DMR where Henderson has 3 and LaSalle has 2 since 07.

In fact, a team hasn't even had back to back sub 8s since CB West in 2011-2012 (and 2010). That's a trend SC and Penncrest will be looking to break and a trend Pennsbury feels pretty good about.

Also worth noting, 4x800m relays defend their titles quite well outdoors. They've successfully defended outdoors in 6/8 of the last seasons, the other two years were the only years D3 teams won the 4x8 title outdoors: 2010 and 2012 (probably not a coincidence, the D3 teams usually fly under the radar until outdoors).

So when you piece it all together, what does this mean for 2015?

In my expert opinion .... No idea.

I'm just going to pull up a seat and see what adjustments I'll have to make to the history books.