Make Some Predictions: I Dare You

It looks like the order of events is the same order as the state meet, so I will do my preview in said order. Lots to talk about here so can't waste any more space.

Mile

Watch for Groff and Mattes of Hempfield in the early heats to make some noise. I liked both of those guys during cross. Perez from McCaskey is another name worth keeping an eye on.

In heat 3/4, we start to see some big names. Ben Wilson from Central Dauphin ran low 4:20s last year and split around 1:56 at states. He had a huge day at states this past fall, nearly claiming a medal. He is a big time performer with potential. Dom Stroh from Altoona should be fully recovered from some injuries he suffered during cross and will be comfortable on what is practically is home track. Liam Galligan, sophomore from Springfield DELCO, will look to continue an excellent season and drop into the state qualifying range. Keep an eye in mid penn runners like Darien Knudsen (9:30s PR for 3200) and Yahya Soliman (sub 16 during cross) to prove their speed. Mills, Gatchell and Walker are others to be on the lookout for.

The fast heat is loaded as well. Billy McDevitt, currently sitting at #2 in the state, leads the charge and he is flanked by Kyle Shinn, Alek Sauer, PJ Murray and Andrew Marston who are also among the early state leaders in the event. McDevitt is the stud of his field but Sauer is a sleeper pick here for the win. I like his closing speed and I think his close run with Brophy last weekend prepared him well for this opportunity. I'll be interested to see how the Stoga boys handle this as well. This meet is clearly a big training sesh for a DMR run (Cooper in the 4, Nelson the 8, these two in the mile), but also a chance for those of these guys to lock down spots near the top of the state. I'm excited to see them race in the same heat as well, that will provide extra motivation for both guys. Marston could have a big day today, I think he's ready to pop a fast time.

Also in this fast section are guys like Quinn Wasko, Brad Foust, and Sean Weidner. These guys all have a ton of talent and haven't race much this year. Weidner is my pick of these three to make noise. I liked his cross season and he was a 4:20s guy consistently last year. Foust should excel here as well. He ran an excellent race at this meet last year.

Keep an eye on Brian Hackman for sleeper potential.

But my pick for the win is none of those guys. It's Alex Milligan of State College. He had a great XC season and has been dominating his home meets this year. I think he comes out and has a big moment at this meet, similar to Cather last year at this meet. Basically this is a practice run for him to see if he can do the mile, 4x8 double at states and run well in both. I think he delivers.

My picks:

1 Milligan

2 Sauer

3 Weidner

4 Marston

5 McDevitt

800m

In the early heats keep an eye on Harrison Kline from Hempfield, Joel Gatchell from Red Lion and Joey Feffer from State College among others. Wesley Huff from Central Dauphin may be able to run a fast time as well.

In heat 3, Matt Bouldin from Archbishop Carroll is a name to remember. He's a sleeper for sub 2 after his dominating 800m runs on some slower tracks earlier in the year. 

In heat 4, we have a slew of excellent runners. Some are doubling back from the mile (Wasko, Galligan, Ethan Gatchell) so I'm not sure how much to expect from that group of studs. However, Dan Williams from Pennridge should be running on completely fresh legs and he is carrying the weight of Logue's legacy as defending champ. Williams had a tough 2nd at TFCAofGP so he is going to be motivated and gunning for a fast mark. He's my pick for the W.

Drew Wilkinson from Red Land is slated to be involved in the fast heat and was a cross country medalist this year. I'm interested to see how he translates that strength to the 800. Tooles from Coatesville is in this heat as well, hoping to improve his state rank. As mentioned earlier serious relay potential is looming in this race with not just Killian Nelson but also Zach Yeger and Mark Mulvaney from Pennsbury. 

Pennsbury has two studs in Sauer and Webb (spoiler alert: he's in the 3k) and they had a 2:04ish mark from Eric Kersten last week on a flat track (he's in the mile). Now they throw these two guys into the hot heat with sub 2 potential. A big day from this crew and that really opens up Pennsbury's options for states. Ideally, they won't need Webb on the 4x8 and will still be competing for gold. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

Sleepers include Strosko and George among others.

Predictions:

1 Williams

2 Bouldin

3 Strosko

4 Wilkinson

5 Tooles

3k

Something to remember: look out for Hempfield in the slower heats. This team is good and they are peppered throughout the slower heats with big potential to break out. Also in the slower sections are sleepers like D'Amico, Iffert and Colton Cassell a well as Josh Higgins.

The fast heat is loaded. The 3k already took a size able dip to faster times this past weekend and things shouldn't get easier after this meet is finished. For starters, we will see Casey Comber in his first individual event since Footlocker. As you've probably realized, the numbers say Footlocker Finalists are real good at the 3k (I know it's stunning), but I'm not putting huge expectations on Comber. I don't know how long or how hard he's been training and he's a prime time performer at heart so I think he will do big things down the road. An interesting thing to pay attention to is Comber's teammates. Horsham may have the pieces for a solid DM or 4x8 down the road if Comber can help lift them and individuals from Horsham are peppered all over the place at KD.

Speaking of which, Sam Webb is also in this meet, making his actual individual debut (as opposed to what the results said for TFCAOFGP). Webb has never really had a chance to pursue the 3k because of injuries and relays so I'm very excited to see him debut and hopefully build towards something big on 3/1. 

This race is filled with other intriguing story lines, including a slew of D3 potential. Brian Delaney, Zach Seiger, Nate Henderson and Aiden Demko are all scheduled to compete. That's basically the top 5 at districts in cross and 3 state medalists as well. Ethan Linderman of Canon Mac is another name to watch as he gets his first crack at the 3k on a fast track. Any of these guys could be an upset special on Saturday.

Also worth noting as sleepers are Kirshenbaum, Sunderland, Digiacomo and Desko among others. It's a loaded field that is going to be fun to watch.

Predictions for the top 5

1 Webb

2 Comber

3 Henderson

4 Linderman

5 Demko

4x8

This has a chance to be a truly exciting final distance event. In the slow heat, Red Lion, Red Land and Hempfield are slated to double back A teams to chase some solid times.

The fast heat is loaded. It appears that Mifflin County, Pennsbury, State College, Strath Haven, Altoona, Canon Mac, Conestoga, Archbishop Carroll, JP McCaskey, St Joesphs, Pennridge, Twin Valley and Holy Ghost Prep are all slated to have A teams on the track with various degrees of freshness. That's a loaded group with a ton of state qualifying potential.

The DMR had it's big weekend last weekend and now it appears it's the 4x8s turn. I'm most excited to see Strath Haven, State College and Twin Valley out of this group. Haven looks like a completely fresh squad that has already run one of the best times in the state and showcased impressive individual 800s. Twin Valley also looks completely fresh. They had an awesome DMR run earlier this year and now it looks like they finally get a chance to race top competition. This is a big moment for Twin Valley, who has a chance to really make a statement with a win and a fast time (low 8 minutes is completely in play). 

State College is my very early sleeper pick for the 4x8 title. They have Milligan doubling back but otherwise it looks like this is a fresh relay going Saturday. They've yet to load a relay up but they have guys way down the depth chart running top 50 times in the state. They are deep and they are the defending state champs. They should feel comfortable on this track and I think they make a nice statement at this meet.

Pennsbury is doubling back their guys (including, apparently, Webb testing that 3k-4x8 double) but they are arguably the most talented team in the race so they can't be counted out for a W. HG Prep had a great DMR showing last weekend and appears to be going pretty fresh in this relay to continue their excellent running. Pennridge puts up strong performances fairly consistently in the 4x8 and this team looks pretty fresh with the exception of their likely best leg in Williams.

Sleepers include McCaskey, Altoona and Canon Mac among others. Most of the teams I left off my top 5 I don't think will be fresh enough to get a top spot.

Predictions

1 Twin Valley

2 State College

3 Strath Haven

4 Pennridge

5 Pennsbury

This relay could be really impressive. There's even a chance we see our first sub 8 of the year. The meet overall is loaded and I'm really excited to briefly scan results tomorrow.

Let's just say KD is the MVP for a reason.