North Penn
North Penn will naturally get overlooked in this race because of the well deserved hype around Henderson and O'Hara, but the Knights may turn some heads on the big stage with a sub 10:20 time. The boys from NP, who focused on the 4x8 indoors (big surprise) have all the right pieces to succeed in the DM and in a low hype race this year they dropped their time to 10:24, one of the last times into Penn. They won that race by 8 seconds over Quakertown.
North Penn will be anchored by Ryan Grace, a sub 4:20 leg for 1600m. He showed nice range at Shippensburg running under 9:30 in the 3200m and has a 4:25 victory in horrible conditions at PW already this outdoors. He ran fearless on the big stage at indoor states when he grabbed a surprise medal in the open mile. The Knights have a variety of other capable runners on the roster including Ryan Tung, a sub 16 minute 5k man with a 4:29 indoor mile PR and Brian Piscitelli, a sub 2 indoor half miler. They have strong depth as well with guys like Joe LeConey and Tyler Johnston prepared to step in and help bolster their line up.
Henderson
And so it begins, the Henderson v. O'Hara debate once again. Henderson looks quite sharp heading into the Penn Relays. Almost too sharp, as now they have so many good runners it's hard to pick which guys to even put on the relay. In terms of open PRs they have all of the following guys on their roster:
Tony Russell 4:09/1:56
Reiny Barchet 4:16/1:59
Kevin Moy 4:16/1:55
Eric Stratman 4:17/1:58
Seamus Collins 4:18/1:59
Steve Thompson 1:56
That's an incredibly deep line up they have at their disposal. Originally I figured after Thompson's latest 800m race he was the logical guy to run the 8 leg and then let the debate begin for who should be the 12. However, I forgot about the 400m leg and Henderson may need Thompson to step into that role like he did indoors when he ran very strong at that distance. That leaves the 8 leg open for Kevin Moy and the 1200m leg will then fall to either Reiny Barchet or Eric Stratman, both of whom are very capable runners as exhibited by their early season miles. Barchet ran the 12 last year and that experience could be helpful. I'm not Stratman has run a 1200 at all this year, but he has a better combination of foot speed and strength. Barchet seems hungry and determined now after being left off the indoor DMR squad that won states and that motivation has already paid off in a big 1600 PR.
Russell is clearly the x-factor here. Even if O'Hara can get another 4:11 type leg out of Belfatto, Russell has the potential to make up ground on him if he manage another 4:07 type split which it appears he is in shape to do. I think a 10:05ish mark is within reason and maybe they will even have enough to challenge that mythical 10 flat barrier. There is usually some magic to be found at Penn.
Lot's of great schools in PA history for XC and the DMR have won a championship at Penn Relays. LaSalle, GFS, Upper Dublin and Coatesville all have recent wins. Henderson has done enough over the years that they might be due to for their own wheel.
O'Hara
But then again, maybe it's O'Hara's turn? Can the Wheel stay in the possession of the PCL?
It is interesting to compare O'Hara to Henderson because O'Hara has a clear set of 3 guys who are very, very strong and a pretty clear order after Kevin James and James Belfatto each proved that they belong on the 1200 leg and 1600 leg (the opposite of the order that I was advocating for pre nationals, shows what I know). O'Hara has already run 10 flat indoors. If they match that mark, I'm not sure anyone can beat them. I'm still not convinced that we will see a sub 10 minute mark at Penn considering that would but O'Hara in Alan Webb territory, but O'Hara has the best chance to do it within the last decade or so it appears.
Kevin James is a strong, gutsy 1200m leg. He has a lot of experience running this tricky to master race in high pressure situations and he will get O'Hara in excellent position early in the race. It's hard to imagine a guy who can "only" run 1:56 can hang with 1:51 dudes at 1200m, but James has done that and more in recent years. I can't project anything faster than 3:02ish just because he may not have the raw speed, but you are almost guarenteed that James will give somewhere between 3:03 and 3:05 which is incredibly comforting for a coach.
Nick Smart is a strong 800m guy and he broke the race open for O'Hara at Nationals with his big time 1:53 leg. He had a fantastic stretch run to his indoor season and has some solid over distance performances already this year at 3k and 1600m. As an 800m guy myself, I bet Smart is probably chomping at the bit to get in a fast 800 and stop running this longer stuff.
The key for O'Hara in my mind is still Jim Belfatto. A 4:11 type split was absolutely awesome for Jim indoors and it was a huge PR with no competition. In theory, Belfatto showed signs indoors that he is capable of faster than 4:11 with the right push. Belfatto is likely going to have to match this type of split to get the team to title, but there are definitely scenarios where he could run 4:13ish and still bring home the gold. I think Belfatto has a very capable kick as well considering his 800m speed. That underrated part of his resume may play a big role at Penn.
Small note, I shouldn't overlook the value of Isiah Cooper. He has strong 200m and 100m speed and was under 23 seconds already this year at Council Rock.
Indoors O'Hara was on a roll going into nationals. All their guys peaked perfectly for the indoor national championships and after a very impressive state championship where Smart, Belfatto and James had huge days, they turned right back around and all had even bigger days at the Armory. It is very tough to have a perfect day for 4 guys when you step out on the track. That will be the question for O'Hara to overcome. Henderson seems to have more momentum now. O'Hara is the one with the target on their back. O'Hara has the pressure of being champions and #2 all time indoors.
Man, this is a brutal race to predict. Both of these teams are well coached and have great runners on their roster. I truly believe that either team could win when the dust clears and I believe either team could be under 10 minutes by this time next week. But ultimately ....
I'm predicting O'Hara 10:03.11, Henderson 10:03.86 and PA takes #1-2 at the meet.
Now the only question is, who you got?
COH WCH
ReplyDeleteJames-3:03.2 Stratman/Barchet-3:05.5
Cooper-51.5 Thompson-50.9
Smart-1:53.5 Moy-1:56.0
Belfatto-4:10.5 Russell-4:06.8
Total-9:58.7 9;58.8
Should be a great race. Don't count out Northport and CBA-CBA has a 4:11 and a 4:12 guy and Northport has a 3:01 and 4:10 guy. You could have 4 teams under 10:02 if the weather is decent.
Well, I guess I'll give this a shot. I'll start with Henderson. These guys are going to be riding a huge wave of momentum after their miles last week. They are clearly in great shape, and this is a great stage to show that on.
ReplyDeleteI think we'll see Reiny Barchet on the 1200 leg. He dropped a great mile last week, and I think he's got more 800 speed than his p.r. would indicate.
I haven't seen any 400 guys show up for Henderson, so I think we'll see Thompson on that leg. He proved he can run a good 400 leg indoors, and I think he'll pull through again.
The 800 will most likely be Kevin Moy, although I wouldn't be shocked to see them throw him on the 1200, and put someone like Stratman on the 800 if they think he has the potential to run a big p.r. Moy has that 1:55.07 p.r. from last year, and I think he's itching to prove that was no fluke. I think he'll prove that in a big way.
Finally, Tony Russell will anchor this. He has been running really great miles all year, and I don't see this being an exception. In fact, between playing catch up, and a little Penn Relays magic, I think we are going to be blown away by how fast he runs.
Now Cardinal O' Hara, your defending indoor national champions. These guys have a tremendous opportunity here. To pull off this double would surely place them in some elite company. I don't know any teams off the top of my head that have won indoor Nat's and Penn, but I'm sure it's a small list.
I don't think they're going to change much up from indoors, which means Kevin James leading off on the 1200 leg. I'm going to be a bit bold on this one, as you'll see once you get to my actual prediction. I think between running against some guys with great speed, and a little more Penn Relays magic, we'll see him run something just as incredible as Tony Russell's mile leg.
C.O.H. has a guy in Isaiah Cooper with some great short sprint speed, and I would imagine he'll be their 400 leg. I have yet to see any 400 times that make me confident he can hold on for 400, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him split a low 50 point.
On the 800, my favorite leg, we'll see Nick Smart who is coming off an incredible few weeks indoors leading up to Nationals. I feel pretty confident he'll be ready to roll. Remember, he was the guy that broke away from the field for O' Hara indoors. Don't be surprised if he does it again.
Now the leg that this race just may come down to, the 1600. Jim Belfatto also had an incredible last couple weeks of indoors for O' Hara, and if he keeps that going, I think they'll be untouchable this weekend. Like most of their guys, we haven't really seen much from Belfatto yet this year, but I don't think that's a bad thing. If anything, it's good. These guys will be fresh and ready to roll, and I think they're about to tear it up.
So, here's how I see this playing out in the end:
Henderson: 1200: Barchet-3:08.2 C.O.H: 1200: James-2:59.6
400: Thompson-51.3 C.O.H: 400: Cooper-50.9
800: Moy-1:55.2 C.O.H: 800: Smart-1:53.8
1600: Russell-4:05.3 C.O.H: 1600: Belfatto 4:10.6
Total: 10:00.00 Total: 9:54.39
Those times are crazy fast!! And I think, if anything, I was a little conservative on some of the splits. Admittedly, I'm a little optimistic with Russell's and James', but I really think they are that good. I can't wait to see how this plays out.
-GBC
that is totalloy off on the 1200 and the 400. Thompson has already run sub 51, and they wouldn't put a guy on the 1200 if he wasnt ready to run sub 3:06
DeleteI don't agree with that very aggressive Kevin James time, but the rest of O'Hara is pretty spot on. Maybe a bit aggressive on Belfatto's time, but the way the guy ran the last month of winter it makes sense you gave him that time.
DeleteLet's be real, with the exception of Russell, Moy is their top 1200 guy. While Barchet unleashed a crazy PR in the 1600, I don't believe he can run a sub 3:06 1200. He doesn't have the raw speed and it isn't long enough of a race to where he can keep a steady pace. I see him going though the laps something like... 60-63-65. His PR is 1:59 in the 800 and this race is going to start off very fast. He will want to keep good position so he will stay near the top pack and die off. The rest I agree with though.
North Penn will hold their own as well. I can see them going somewhere in the 10:18 range on a good day. As long as their 1200 leg knows his limits they should be okay.
-RTJ
Ohara: 9:54.5
ReplyDeleteJames: 3:02
Cooper: 50.5
Smart:1:52
Belfato:4:10
Henderson: 10:04
Barchet:3:05
Tophmson: 50.
Moy: 1:54
Russel: 4:05
Your splits put Henderson at 9:54.0
DeleteI would have put NP in the 10:17ish range but I have not seen Ryan Tung results (assuming he might be injured). Without him in 1200 (he was close of Grace times during CC and indoor track), I doubt they break 10:20 unless Grace runs out of his mind.
ReplyDeleteWell here we are again with another O’Hara/Henderson match up that could be the stuff of legend. This is a PA distance running junkie’s dream, two PA teams going head to head for the DMR championship at Penn Relays, each with a legit shot at winning, and of breaking the 9:59.6 record. I haven’t had an excessively long post in a while so why not take up some space on Etrains new blog and analyze it!
ReplyDeleteOH – These guys ran pretty much the perfect race at nationals with only a measly .76 separating them sub 10:00. Every guy on the squad was at his best. Can they run that well again? Even with it being outdoors and if the weather holds up, the odds still are probably against it. To have all four guys running at PR’s is a lot to ask. But my propensity has always been to underestimate this squad.
The emergence of Smart and Belfatto to elite levels probably surprised everyone except Coach Kennedy. James setting them up in the front pack was key to bringing out those great performances. James has handled the 1200 distance so well for a guy who doesn’t have the big time 800 pr. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t hand off the baton in the top 3. Cooper will likely be quicker outdoors but I’m not so sure about Smart/Belfatto only because we haven’t seen fast outdoor open races yet. My guess O’Hara will be solid, but Belfatto will have some company to deal with this time.
WCH –So many options. On the 1200, anyone of Barchet, Moy, Stratman or Collins could probably be counted on for a solid 3:08. However to win they probably need someone to come up bigger.
This 1200 leg is one of those events in team sports that won't win it for you, but can certainly lose it. A 3:06 or better is probably required to have a chance at winning. Staying near the lead to set up Russell within reasonable striking distance is critical. If they're in the mix at the first hand-off the 400/800 runners should feed off of it. But a 3:08 could bury them, they'll be chasing from too far back to recover against the national indoor champs. The lead off leg is so important that putting Russell on the 1200 must be tempting, but his mile speed and ability to run down the leaders is too valuable on the anchor.
I wouldn’t want to be Coach Kelly for this decision. The safe line up, (and probably the smarter line up) is Barchet, Thompson, Moy, Russell or going back to the indoor team of Moy, Thompson, Stratman, Russell. A more aggressive line up with possibly a bigger upside would be Moy, a 52-400 guy, Thompson, Russell or even Barchet, Moy, Thompson, Russell. I’d really like to see Thompson on the 800 leg. He’s showing a lot of promise. With 51 indoor speed and a 1:56 open 800 under his belt I think he could come up with a great 800 split at Penn, maybe 1:53. Collins, Stratman, or Moy must be able to throw down a 52 or better-400 split, which is only about 1.5 seconds off of what Thompson might run on his best day. Potentially they could pick up 2 seconds with Thompson on the 800.
My guess is they’ll go with the same line up as nationals, keeping Thompson on the 400. Even with Barchet dropping that 4:16 1600, Moy still shows better speed and has been solid in the 1200 this year. Stratman is probably the better choice over Barchet or Collins in the 800. If these guys can get Russell the baton within 5 seconds of the lead, there’s a good chance of seeing something special in the finish. After some close calls in previous relays Russell must be dying for a chance to anchor a relay to a major victory.
I’m expecting a very close race by the end: Henderson – 10:00.8, O’Hara 10:01.9.
If it rains hard and/or windy, add 5 seconds. If good weather, both teams could break 10:00
Hopefully Northport or someone else doesn’t sneak in there to mess things up for PA.
- RJJL
Not many coaches have to tell a guy who's at sub 4:20 that he doesn't make the teams DMR. Coach Kelly has to tell two.
DeleteO'Hara 9:59.6, Henderson, 9:59.8. Russell runs down Belfatto but runs out of gas in the last 20 meters.
Delete