The Wait Is Over: A Look At The WPIAL

So I believe I owe you WPIAL fans a check in. We had a nice district preview this weekend as most of the top teams in D7 did battle on the same course where they will seek a state championship birth at the end of the month. Let’s break things down one class at a time (although all classes did race together).

A

Etrain’s Current State Picks:

1) Winchester Thurston

2) Shenango

3) Riverview

4) Avonworth

5) Eden Christian

Winchester Thurston, unsurprisingly, rolled at this meet. They scored just 29 points at within the A classification. They picked up that low total without their best runner in Tristan Forsythe. But more impressive to me were the performances from their top two runners. Gordon Pollock was the fastest A runner in the entire meet, beating out state medalist Chris Kocent and other top D7 names. His time of 17:05 was 19^th across all classifications. Behind him, freshman Patrick Malone had his best race of the year, clocking 17:46 and taking 6^th in A. Malone’s development as a legit top 5 guy (along with fellow frosh Ben Bermann) sets Winchester Thurston up well for their rematch with Penns Valley in coming weeks. They’ve got a strong chance to repeat (assuming Forsythe comes back ready to roll).

Shenango has always been on my radar and nothing about their Coopers performance scared me off from projecting them as state qualifiers. They’ve had some quality races thus far and I think they could have potentially even run better today than they did. Matt Salem has a chance to find top 5 in a field like this on the right day. Jensen Lewis ran strong as the team’s #2 and, although they aren’t quite as deep through 5 as a team like Thurston, they hung easily with strong pack running teams like Eden and Avonworth.

Riverview wasn’t at this meet, but I’ve seen enough to believe they can punch another ticket to states. They’ve done it in the past, including some tight finishes (Shenango was on the other half of those the past two seasons). Eden has been staring them down all year and put together yet another nice pack performance at Coopers (although soph Eric Gronbeck emerged as a nice front-running piece). Avonworth is a new team to watch. They were district champs a few years back and are hungry to return to states. They had almost as good of a pack as Eden, but they didn’t have the front runner. If someone steps up at WPIALs than they could jump into the top 3. Our Lady of Sacred Heart is the deep sleeper, assuming they can churn out one more top 5 piece. Their big three can hang with Shenango, it’s just the next spots that are more up for grabs.

The extra variable here is what kind of effect will a smaller race have on these guys at WPIALs? When you eliminate the depth of AAA and AA guys from the field, will that make some of the mid pack guys more confident? Will some of the front runners get out a bit less aggressively and hold on better down the stretch? Will some teams that like to start slow have a bigger advantage as it will be easier to pass people in a smaller field? All things to keep in the back of your mind as you project. I’ll leave it to Mr. Cricket to give me the insight on what the thinks that will mean (for all three classifications) as we look ahead to Districts.

AA

Etrain’s Current State Picks:

1) Indiana Area

2) Greensburg Salem

3) New Castle

4) South Fayette

This was a tricky one to pick. I think Indiana Area, with a big run at Foundation and now an impressive victory at Coopers, has earned my respect. I don’t think they are a lock (there’s four great teams fighting for three spots), but they have put together arguably the most consistent season of any top WPIAL program. Julian Yerger seems to be making a jump at the right time. He was the #3 at each of the past two invites, but he narrowed the gap significantly this week on Bujdos and Branan (two legit front runners). Their #5 was clearly tops in the field and they were the only team with 3 top 10 finishers (including out of district General McLane who took the silvers).

Greensburg Salem was not at Coopers this weekend, but did put down an impressive performance at their league meet against AAA Norwin. There, they took 1-2-3 in the team standings and finished with 49 points, coming up just 2 points shy of the win. If you are going to be skeptical, the 4-5 spot should be the target. That’s where these other top programs will have to work to defeat the defending champs. I actually wouldn’t be surprised at all if this team wins WPIALs this year (I think their 4-5 are going to pull through), but there is enough up in the air around their frosh #5 runner to slot them 2^nd for right now. Would have been cool to see them in this race.

New Castle was also MIA at Coopers with league duties to attend to. New Castle cruised to the MAC title with 52 points vs. Beaver Area’s 105. For reference, Beaver was 5^th at Coopers this weekend with 155 points compared to Indiana’s 65 and South Fayette’s 95. New Castle put three in front of Beaver’s #1 at the MAC which would have translated to 3 top 15 finishers at this meet (pretty legit) with a 4-5 in around the 20 range. I think New Castle can actually run better than they did at their league champs and I’m optimistic that they will get revenge for last year’s championships.

That being said, South Fayette is starting to round into championship form. They scored under 100 points at Coopers and Colin Dunn is starting to really pick things up. He was 6^th in this meet after finishing outside the top 40 at Foundation. Dunn and teammate Silas Mays will go a long way in determining how far this team goes. The #5 spot could also be a point of contention. What is cool about South Fayette is that potentially there entire top 5 will all be seniors.

Deer Lakes wasn’t on my radar going into this weekend. They produced a nice result of 150 points with a back all in the top 40. They’ve got a long way to go to catch South Fayette (whose front running puts them in a hole), but they should take some confidence from being only one place back of last year’s 3^rd place team in the state. Uniontown is always dangerous. I’m not saying they will make states, but they always seem to hit their stride perfectly at WPIALs. Sam Kllinger leads them very well. He ran 17:23 at Coopers and finished 4^th in a strong AA field.

I will say that General McLane, although not a D7 team, is starting to already make me doubt my D10 picks. They finished 2^nd overall, led by the dynamic duo of Price and Andrzejewski, but what really caught my eye was the emergence of frosh Dylan Throop. This kid came out of left field to take 12^th overall and round out an excellent top 4 for McLane. I was worried they didn’t have enough fire power out front to hang with Harbor Creek or the depth to match Grove City. Right now, they are kind of a combination of those two teams strength. Not quite as good at either’s strengths, but arguably better at each’s weakness. So stay tuned to see how that plays out. The x-factor here will likely be junior Simon Zehr. He will be his team’s swing guy I suspect.

While we’ve got a second, let’s mention the individuals. Sam Snodgrass, Nate Price and Erik Andrzejewski were the clear top tier from this classification. That’s not a huge surprise as Snodgrass and Andrzejewski are returning state medalists from last fall (while Price looks to be heading that way), but does show you exactly what kind of talent level you need to be at to be a top 15 type in AA this season. I think Snodgrass will give Davis a big run for his money in their rematch at Hershey. He could end up the state champ. So if you are Price, ending up just 12 seconds back should make you feel good. Andrzejewski proved last year that he runs the Hershey course really well. He was top 20 last year at states with roughly half of the names ahead of him graduating.

AAA

Etrain’s Current State Picks:

1) Seneca Valley

2) North Allegheny

3) Mount Lebanon

4) Butler

5) Norwin

Unlike AA and A, we saw all of the big 4 teams competing in the AAA section at Coopers. This was our first head to head match-up between what is arguably the toughest state qualifying competition we will see this year. On this day Seneca Valley came out on top, but, more importantly, Butler finished in the #4 spot.

I suspect that Butler isn’t feeling too nervous. They were behind the 8 ball last year at this time, but pulled out a clutch run to get their state qualifier when it counted. If Aden Dressler is added back to the lineup and healthy, they close the gap fairly quickly on their opposition. I also think Robbie Hays could continue drop time to districts. He had a big day last year as a top 5 contributor and this weekend he went out well behind his teammates Skyler Vavro and Tim Patterson, making up some 15 seconds on them over the final mile. Vavro is a nice find for a potential #5 guy. Beveridge and Brady are studs.

NA is always tough to overlook. Although they haven’t been the dominant force we’ve seen in the past, they are still a great team. Racing against arguably 2 of the best 4 schools in the state, the Tigers hung tough and left with a 3^rd place finish. Their pack is improving each week to the point where they don’t have any liabilities in the scoring. Ethan James was just 16 seconds back of Lebo’s #5 (a great pack running school). The key will be narrowing the gap between McGoey and whoever is #2 as Dan was almost a minute ahead of Cam Phillips this weekend. Keep an eye on Stephen Nalepa who doing some big time running as of late. He’s another sophomore. For once, it looks like NA will actually be bringing back some young talent after getting hit hard by graduation in the past few seasons. Lastly, TJ Robinson was missing from the meet. He could be their x-factor if they want to jump up and catch Lebo or Seneca Valley.

Those two schools are the clear 1-2 punch in the district right now. Either of them could steal the state title this year. I’m not blown away by what I’ve seen from anybody right now in PA. I think this could be a wild ride at states and these two western schools have proven they are battle tested, don’t have weak links and have nice depth (especially Lebo who is quickly becoming the deepest team since the Henderson squads of earlier this decade).

Seneca Valley is clicking at the right time. Sam Owori pulled out a huge run and made his case to be the #1 junior in the state. We know Seth Ketler can run right with his teammate and was only 10 seconds back on race day. Alex Dixon continues to prove he is a top tier #4 and Aidan Domencic has not shied away from the pressure of being in the scoring 5. They’ve proven themselves on the big stage with a WPIAL championship last year and state medals in the 4x8 on the track.

Quite frankly, Lebo has even more upside than Seneca Valley. They are deeper (8 guys in the top 30 of AAA) and perhaps a bit hungrier. They have something to prove after their disappointment at last year’s championships. That’s the thing that everyone will continue to come back to with Lebo. Can they get over the hump at districts? All they need to do is survive district week and I’m confident they can be a top 5 team in the state. But will they survive with all these high quality teams around them?

Patrick Anderson just through down a massive result with his 16:23. Cosentino and Brandenstein have both run right with him (or in front of him) this season, so imagine three guys getting into the 16:30s. That would be huge in the fight with SV. Alex Brokaw stepped up as the best #4 in the district as well. He was nipping at Brandenstein’s heels this weekend, providing some extra push for this team’s top trio.

Lebo may have a similar problem to DT West in that they are too deep for their own good. They had the advantage of running more than 7 varsity guys this weekend so they had some flexibility with who would step up. Thomas Cosentino stepped up this week and Cameron Potts, a potential top 4 guy on this team, was actually out of the top 7. Now it shouldn’t be a huge issue as they had #5 through 8 within 4 seconds this weekend (in other words, any of those guys could have been taken out and it wouldn’t have had a big impact on the score), but there may be an extra push each individual runner gets from running side by side with their teammates, knowing there is a varsity spot on the line. Just an extra thing to keep in mind with these really deep teams.

I’ll throw a couple quick individual notes on here as well. Noah Beveridge is legit. He rolled a 15:46 with nobody else in site. Big day for Sam Owori. His individual potential got a lot higher. Lots of sophomores to watch in this district. How about 5 in the top 11 for AAA? That’s wild. Patrick Anderson obviously making the biggest statement, but Zach Leachman had an impressive day (especially considering he raced a league championship mid-week). The WPIAL is excellent in AAA this year. Last year it was a little underwhelming to me, but this year I think they’ve got a nice contingent of medal contenders. Beveridge may be the state championship favorite depending on your opinion of Rusty’s heavy racing schedule. I’m not too nervous about Rusty’s schedule, but what I do know is that Noah had his best race of the year on the Hershey hills a season ago.