Thought #7: The Top 50

Well it's the final of my thoughts for the week! Glad to bring you my opinions and what not. For this last post I decided to bust out a top 50 rather than a top 101 (although I created a top 101 once again and would be happy to post it if there is demand). I figured a top 50 was appropriate because it was kinda my signature thing when I was posting on penntrack and on my original blog so I figured I should stand by my creations from 2008 and keep tradition alive.

So here we go, this is the top 50 as of now. Not state predictions by any means, these rankings are meant to answer the following question: if somebody said "quick, pick a team of runners to run a 5k from PA high school! Race is Saturday!" And then they ran away without giving me any other information what is the order that I would pick people in.

Keep in mind, as usual, I'm doing this from a train so there will be natural grammar errors and I may miss a name or two but that's what the comments are for! So please keep me informed! Ask questions and stir up conversation.

No without any further suspense let's get down to the rankings. I'll pause every 10 or so to give some thoughts. Also I will list in parentheses the amount of spots a person has moved up the rankings so you can key in on some of the guys I feel or on the rise (or guys I just overlooked before). NR indicates this runner was not ranked in the top 101 last round of rankings.

50. C. Holm, Radnor
49. S. Seel, NA
48. K. Nelson, Conestoga (NR)
47. S. Smith, Towanda (+16)
46. R. Budnik, Grove City
45. J. Connors, Wilson
44. G. Mackey, Sedwick (NR)
43. Jo. Hoey, Malven (+4)
42. J. Susalla, Plum (+55)
41. K. Lapsansky, Easton (+25)

This set of 10 features some big movers from the last round of rankings. Susalla nearly broke 16 at RWB and had a victory at Gateway to start the year. He's off to a nice start in the WPIAL. Lapsansky is another guy on the rise after a nice PTXC performance. He could move up this list even more with consistent performances like that, Paul Short should be his next big chance to showcase. Griffin Mackey is a name to remember, just a sophomore emerging as one of the tops in his class. Same goes for little Hoey obviously as Josh looks very strong in the early going for a loaded MP squad. Nelson and Murray (51st this week) are two very nice pieces for Conestoga. Still no 5k yet from them, but strong enough performances to earn mentions this week at the very least. Conestoga is a great team and so they need to be represented here.

40. E. Diestelow, West Chester East
39. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
38. D. Stroh, Altoona
37. W. Loevner, Winchester
36. K. Gonoude, Salisbury
35. A. Benka, Grove City
34. A. Milligan, State College (+37)
33. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
32. B. Arita, CRN (+11)
31. B. Faust, Altoona

No Stroh or Loevner this weekend which was a little concerning, but I'm assuming they just had other commitments rather than injuries keeping them out of the line up. I'll be keeping an eye on it. Stroh has raced this weekend, finishing third to Milligan and Faust who are both also in this section. Milligan is the big mover here after winning his first race of the year. It appears he is ready to take that next step this season, but I will need to see a few more data points before I can rank him ahead of Faust (a returning state medalist who gets the nod here for that reason). At 34, Milligan is my #22 AAA guy, which means he would be a serious medal contender if he holds this position. Arita has an invite win and is the key guy in one of the best programs in the state. Given their history, I'd be surprised if Arita isn't a medalist at states.

30. J. Heinauer, North Hills (+58)
29. Z. Skolnevich, Quaker Valley (+9)
28. H. Sappey, DTW (NR)
27. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst
26. D. Green, James Buchanon (+30)
25. E. Graca, Fox Chapel (+40)
24. S. Hilverding, Waynesburg (+21)
23. J. VanKooten, Pittsburgh CC
22. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin (+48)
21. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep (+2)

Well folks we reached the "holy crap, I really underestimated that guy!" Part of the list! I mean look at those numbers! Sappey gets a big jump here, perhaps this a bit bold to jump him this high this quickly, but I like what he's been able to do so far leading the squad. DTW probably deserves more than 1 guy on the list, but I couldn't figure out who because they have such a great pack of guys. So Sappey goes high on the list to show my respect for the squad on the whole and my confidence in them looking forward. This section also includes Elias Graca, who I touched on in thought #6. He was the 2nd biggest star of the weekend (we will get to #1 later). Sean Hilverding is one of the most underrated AA guys in my eyes so I figured he deserved some love here for his big day. Everyone is talking Hockenbury and Kachman (and by everyone I mostly mean me) but Hilverding is in the mix as well. That race should be fun. Dan Green went out of state and killed it this weekend after giving Brehm a run for his money. I believe Green is also AA which means he belongs in those state title talks as well. AA may be more wide open than it originally appears. There are 5+ guys who can win right now (I feel the same way about AAA but we will get to that). Sean Weidner was about 10 spots lower on this list until news came about his win over Seiger. I chuckled a bit when I saw the comment on padontplay about it. Just remember commenters there is no reason to give a guy extra motivation. Weidner following nicely in the footsteps of Nissley and Groh and has now had 2 impressive performances instead of just the one at PTXC. That's big. One can be a fluke, but two is a trend.

20. Z. Seiger, Red Land
19. P. Power, Spring Ford (+1)
18. A. Knapp, Henderson
17. N. Dahl, GFS (+2)
16. H. Wharrey, NA (+12)
15. W. Kachman, Bedford (+2)
14. C. Comber, Horsham
13. D. Perretta, Beaver
12. S. Ritz, GA (+3)
11. A. Gebhardt (+1)

This group is a fun one. Mostly because I just can't figure out where to place half of them. I'm not sure what Perreta has got and Ritz looked very good in race 1, but it was only a 3k and he is a speed guy at heart. Paul Power very quietly had a nice split at 4xXC (or at least I think he did, who can tell with that results sheet?) and he was quietly very good in the post season last year. It's time someone is loud about him! Sorry got carried away there with the exclamation point. Hunter Wharrey was big for NA. If he continues to progress like this he might give McGoey a run for his money in a race or two which is great because I think McGoey is going to be top 5-10 this year at states.

For the record Comber's interview made me a fan. I love penntrack interviews, they are a nice way to see what guys are like. Good job penntrack. Comber just seemed down to earth, very respectful of his competition and teammates and knew he still had work to do to become one of the best this year. And how about Nick Dahl's interview? The kid came across like a super genius if I'm being honest (his mom did go to Yale so that should have been the first clue) and was another motivated and focused guy. Should my personal opinion of a runner help them in the rankings? Nope. But does it help if I'm secretly rooting for someone? Yeah probably on some subconscious level.

10. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
9. A. Marston, Conestoga (+5)
8. M. McGoey, North Allegheny (+1)
7. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
6. J. Brophy, CB East

I think this group 5 is all of almost identical ability at this point. Marston is the guy with his stock most on the rise after his 8:51 3k at Belmont. (Small side note, everyone wants to destroy RWB for being not a real 5k, but somebody runs 8:51 on trials in September and nobody once is like, hey was that a full 3k? Just saying). Regardless of the length, Marston dominated a field that included Ritz, Dahl and Knapp. As he moves up in distance he will only get better and as things get hillier he will only get better (killed the state course). Big potential here and people are taking notice. McGoey ran blazing fast this weekend even relative to course records and things like that. I'm about seeing who you beat and how you compare to previous years in XC, I could care less about a time by itself. 15:20s means nothing to me without knowing, where, what previous years winners have run and who you beat. I may put together a list of the fastest marks on the course for comparison, but I think McGoey is high up there and apparently he looked really good. Ev Hatt could probably hook us up with some nice analysis.

5. S. Webb, Pennsbury
4. Ja. Hoey, Malvern Prep
3. G. Molino, South Williamsport
2. K. James, O'Hara
1. C. Abert, Easton

Well we have a new #1 after Abert rolled a course record and won by 30+ seconds over a very good Dom Hockenbury. He is the #1 star of the weekend and people are all in on the bandwagon. The hype is growing around him with talk of nationals and All American surfacing. I think the other guys in this top 5 (and some outside) can all challenge him. We still haven't seen James, Molino or Webb get a chance to get after it so it's hard to say anything for sure about how much they will challenge Abert this year until we do. Hoey is clearly a stud. But he won't be at states (dang it meet of champs) so really we won't see Hoey all out until possibly December. Not sure what MPs meet schedule looks like going forward but I hope he gets a shot at these other top 5 guys because I think he could beat them all if he has a good day. Abert took the reigns and is leading the charge, but I still see a wide open race for the top spot.

And really you couldn't ask for anything better. Or at least that's what I think ... And these ... These are my thoughts.