Top 7 Thoughts: Three is a Crowd

So without some key results like CB East and Red White and Blue, I can't quite do the rankings I was hoping I do just yet. So later in the week we will have a variety of posts that include a ranking. Gotta decide how big to make the list (50, 101, other?). Let me know in the comment section below what you think.

In the mean time let's talk some weekend action. This is thought one of my 7 thoughts of the weekend.

#1 The D3 race is heating up.

Last year the boys from Carlisle finished 6th at the state championships, the highest finish by a district 3 team at states since 2005 (Craig Millers Manheim Township squad was 2nd). Carlisle returns three key guys from last years squad: DeAngelo, Wisner and Zach Brehm, giving them a potent top 3. They ran strong in the first meet of the year at Chambersburg behind this top 3, but still need to establish a bit more of a 4-5 punch going forward.

The boys from Cumberland Valley took a strong step forward at PTXC with a third place finish (2nd PA). CV has been a consistently strong team and had a beautiful stretch of pack running behind a top 4 that was 7-16-18-24 (team scoring). Two of those top 4, Josh Higgins and Yahya Soliman, are just sophomores. Senior Quinn Wasko took a big step forward with a 7th place overall finish, jumping some men ahead of him.

Red Land was just behind CV, riding key performances from Zach Seiger (3rd) and Drew Wilkinson (11th). They return their entire top 7 from districts last year. Seiger is stepping in to a lead role with authority while Wilkinson is improving as well. Hershey also returns their entire district squad from a year ago, including Aiden Demko, a solid runner for the past 2 years, and Will Sponaugle, an emerging miler with excellent potential. Both teams have been under the radar dramatically out in the middle of the state.

Also in contention is a Lower Dauphin team that, in case you forgot, is the defending champs. Sean Weidner stepped into a leading role with a 4th place finish at PTXC. Running with him is an emerging pair of sophomores in Colton Cassell (19th) and Kyle Shea (21st). Dauphin lost some key seniors a year ago which means it may take some time for the next generation to assert itself, but there is a certain element of pride that comes with being the defending champs. And then there is Twin Valley, who wasn't on the starting line at PTXC, but did sweep the first 4 spots and the team title in their opener.

Throw in Hempfield (solid at Oakburne returns top 4 and 6 of 7 from last years squad), Governor Mifflin (returns their top 5 from last year led by the emerging Luckanitz) and other teams consistetly at the top (Central Dauphin, Cedar Crest) and you have a mad house rush for the 4 state spots.

Wow. This is going to be a thrilling season, I'm not sure anyone is safely through, although if I had to pick one squad to find a way it would be the boys of Cumberland Valley. Since 2006, not only has CV made states every year, they have been one of the top 2 squads from D3 every single year, something that no team from D1 can boast. They were also the #1 team from D3 in 5 different seasons, despite only winning 1 district championship during that period (2012, where they had their highest finish over that span with an 8th place finish).

What that tells me is A) Cumby is a great program with an excellent chance of being tops in the district again and B) being d3 champ is not the priority for this squad. As I've chronicled for this blog before, there a slew of disadvantages to running the state course back to back weeks and the results show D3 has suffered. Statistically speaking it's better to be somewhere around 8th at districts as an individual than to win if you want to do well at states. That's no different for d3 teams.

Since 2007 when the course changes really took effect, the team champ and districts has been the top team at states just twice over the 7 year period. Over the same window the district champ has been the 5th best team at states twice as well.

So all these teams face a natural trade off: states or districts? Where do we want to excel?

But the question is, can any of these teams afford to hold back at states considering the depth of the team battle?

When I evaluate the potential going forward, I look at a couple factors (it's still very early). The age of the squad: a young squad has more room to grow but less experience at the top level. They need the right mix of veterans and young studs. The program history: if you are a team that knows how to peak right and has a culture of heading to the state championship, that gives you an advantage. However, if you have had some tough defeats, you are that much more hungry for a break through. And lastly: spread. Look you need 5 guys to win a title. But early in the season, it's rare for a teams top 5 to be set in stone. Line ups change over the year and spreads (usually) tend to shrink as the natural competitiveness of the squad drags guys closer together. If a team doesn't have a good 4/5 in September it doesn't scare me the same as it will in October, especially if it's a young squad or a great program. I like to see a squad with a great top 3. And I love to see a squad that has a ton of guys competing for the 5-10 spots. That's huge because those guys are going to push each other to new heights. That's what it looks like on NAs roster most years, same with Henderson. That's what Conestoga and DT West seem like. That's a good sign.

So with all this in mind this is where I currently rank the teams in D3 in order of most likely to make states (not most likely to win districts)

1. CValley
Great program, already have a slew of guys with potential to become impressive front runners, nice mix of experience
2. Carlise
Best team a year ago, they have the best front runner of the bunch and have a great top 3
3. Red Land
Seiger and Wilkinson leading the way, a team hungry after a narrow miss last year at districts
4. Lower Dauphin
Defending champs, young squad, should develop well over the year and have a reputation to protect
5a. Twin Valley
5b. Hershey
Both great squads, Twin gets a slight nod because they qualified for states a year ago.
7a. Governor Mifflin
7b. Hempfield
Both are dangerous sleepers, Mifflin gets a slight nod thanks to their front runner pulling the pack along.
9. Central Dauphin
10. Cedar Crest

It's going to be tight the whole way. I expect lots of movement on these rankings and lots of fun races this year from the mid state teams.