This is it folks, we are in the home stretch of my
blogging career with only one season to go! Let’s take a brief look at what
could be in store for my final spring with you all.
AA 3200m
Returning State Medalists:
Brendan Miller, Upper Dauphin (3rd)
Andrew Stanley, Southern Huntington (4th)
Quinn Serfass, Loyalsock (6th)
After a strong indoor campaign and a 2nd place
finish in A during XC, I’d say Upper Dauphin’s Brendan Miller comes into this
one as the favorite. As mentioned above, he was 3rd at states a year
ago behind a couple of all-time seniors. He is coming off a season that
included an 8:47 3k and 15:24 5k indoors (in his first serious indoor
campaign). A year ago, he ran 4:25-9:28 for the long stuff outdoors (without
that indoor season to really get him going). I think this kid will be a force
to reckon with and should get under 9:20 for 3200.
Andrew Stanley and Quinn Serfass are the other top
returning medalists. Stanley had a heck of a run at last year’s state
championship, fearlessly going after an aggressive start and being rewarded with
a 4th place finish and a 9:29. After a career best finish in XC he
will hope to continue that streak. Serfass seems like a legit title contender
here. His Loyalsock team gives him the best training group as this squad was 6th
at states in XC behind a trio of medal contenders. Serfass himself was 4th
overall with a blazing time of 16:23. That’s the #2 time of anybody competing
in AA this spring.
The #1 time belongs to the biggest wildcard in this
discussion-Tristan Forsythe. The Winchester Thurston senior is the reigning XC
state champ and the defending AA 1600 winner. He ran a career best indoors of
9:15.19 for 3200 and then added a state medal in the event at PSU. If he sticks
with a 3200-1600 schedule, he may be the favorite for gold in both events. However,
I’m thinking Forsythe will put his energy into defending the 3200 state title.
Some other names I like as contenders? I’d watch for Jack
Miller of Jenkintown. He was sub 9 indoors for 3k and sub 16 in XC. Wyomissing’s
1-2 punch of Matt Driben and Ben Kuhn could contend, especially if Wyomissing
needs team points for the title. The 4x8 will be the complicating factor there.
I’d also watch for Josh Lewis of North East, the D10 champ during XC.
However, the two biggest names to keep an eye on are
sophomores. Andrew Healey of Holy Cross and Ben Hoffman of Elk County Catholic
were 9th and 11th respectively at last year’s
championships, but I think one of these guys will crack the top 2 at states in
this event in 2018. These are huge talents that were 4th and 8th
at XC states as sophomores. They may be young, but that won’t stop them from
chasing the top spot.
AAA 3200m
Returning State Medalists:
Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy (3rd)
Noah Beveridge, Butler (5th)
Ryan Campbell, CR North (8th)
I think we can all agree – let’s see a Rusty vs. Noah
rematch and see if they can push each other to sub 9. To date, Rusty has had
the upper hand on Beveridge. After Noah took 5th at XC states as a
junior (tops in his class), Rusty was 2nd, 3rd, 1st,
1st at his last four state championships. Kujdych’s 9:04 time is
tops among returners and his XC performance was nothing short of remarkable.
Indoors, he dropped a career best in the mile and, with Hoey likely out of the event,
could potentially try the 3200-1600 double this year and contend for gold in
both (something to keep an eye on for both guys honestly).
However, Rusty will have his hands full. Beveridge too
had a big indoor campaign that included a nice mile PR and some good speed
work. He clocked an early season 8:44 in the 3k (super fast) while not focusing
much on the event as his team shot up the standings in the DMR. Beveridge
started last outdoor season with a modest 3200 best, got to 9:20 by districts
and then all the way to 9:07 at states. He’s way ahead of that schedule in
2018. Plus, Rusty is up against history. The XC-3k-3200 titles have not been
swept since Jason Weller did it all the way back in 2006-2007. In between, we’ve
seen near triple crown victories, but the third leg has taken out Ryan Gill
(2010-2011) and Jake Brophy (2015-2016).
Contrary to everything I just said, this will not be a
two horse race. Ryan Campbell and CR North have proven time and time again that
they show up for the big meets. Campbell ran 9:14 to claim a medal in a loaded
field last spring and will back with a vengeance this year. Mitchell Etter of
State College was the state silver medalist indoors and has strong outdoor experience
from his 15th place finish a year ago. My real sleeper pick is
Morgan Cupp of Mechanicsburg. The senior was an absolute force during XC and
qualified for states in this event a year ago. He’s been looking for that track
breakthrough and I think it comes this year. Cupp and Mechancisburg rolled to a
DMR victory to start their spring track season at the Upper Darby relays.
Other names include Dan Mcgoey, Spencer Smucker (will he
run this event or the 16?), Patrick Anderson (really like this sleeper pick),
the Penncrest boys, Carlos Shultz (how will he transition to Shanahan?), Tyler
Rollins, Josh Lewin, Jacob McKenna and basically everybody. I can’t
realistically name everybody if I want this post to be reasonable (and not
sound like a Magic Johnson tweet). This event has the potential to be loaded.
AA 1600m
Returning Medalists:
Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston (1st)
Joe Cullen, Wyomissing (2nd)
Tyler Leeser, Milton (4th)
Garrett Baublitz, Juniata (6th)
This event has the chance to be stacked. A
Forsythe-Cullen match-up is plenty to get excited about by itself. The top two
returners from last year have a chance to push down toward the 4:10 barrier in
the right race. Forsythe is coming off a season where his strength has hit
another level, while Cullen was faster indoors at the mile than he was a year
ago, adding a blazing DMR and another 1:55 800 to his resume. Plus, his training
partners are at another level after their XC state victory, especially to help
with the longer distances.
I’ve always been a Leeser guy. He was absolutely amazing
last year and almost capped off his season with two different state titles. He’s
one of the most underrated dudes around. We didn’t see much from him in XC, but
he missed a good chunk of time midseason. After all that time off, he still
came back and helped his team get to states (where he then pulled a 43rd
place finish out of seemingly nowhere). The guy is a huge talent and I want to
see him atop the podium. However, he may focus on the 800 considering how
stacked this event is.
Garrett Baublitz is the wildcard in all of this. The
sophomore is young and perhaps a year away from contending for the title;
however, he’s been racing above his age for years now. He would have been a
state medal contender in the mile this year indoors had he entered. Instead he’s
looking to build off the 4:19 time he ran as a frosh last year. He’s in a sub
4:20 club for freshman that is very small. Off the top of my head, Josh Hoey
and Craig Miller (look him up young guys) were the only ones I remember doing
that. They ended up pretty good.
This was a fairly senior laden even if you look further down
the depth chart, but there will be surprises how emerge from the crop. I don’t
have a long list of sleepers at this point (Gordon Pollock, Ethan Knoebel
should contend), but this is an event where a star will emerge early in the
season that I didn’t see coming.
AAA 1600m
Returning Medalists:
Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts (3rd)
A year ago this race was madness. It’s still one of my
favorite state races ever because there were so many guys that (a) ran massive
PRs and (b) had a chance to win with 300 to go. The top 7 guys all ran under
4:15 and we saw a blanket finish for the medals. Isaac Kole was your state
champion after being an afterthought on a national championship DMR. What a
turn of events!
This year, it seems like Conway vs. the field. Assuming
Hoey continues his trend of skipping state championships, Conway is the top
returner by time and place (comfortably). He’s also the reigning indoor state
champ at both the mile and the 800. He’s on a roll this year with an XC state
medal and a national qualifying performance. Plus, some of his closest
competitors (Kujdych, Beveridge) seem to be leaning toward the 3200. Others
(Baker, Addison, Ketler & Owori, Eissler) have potential 4x8 duties.
All that being said, whenever something begins to feel
like an obvious pick in the track and field world, an upset is lurking. Maybe
it’s Tyler Wirth who ran sub 4:20 last year and put together his first ever XC
and indoor campaigns this year. He was just off the medal stand last year. Maybe
one of the 4x8 guy’s teams dissolves or has an off race and the door is open
for them in the 16 instead (like Kole last year or Kellar in 2010).
Heck, there’s plenty of guys that don’t really do indoors
that could emerge as contenders by the time we hit the end of the spring.
Nobody was talking about Jesse Cruise this time last year and the kid nearly
stole the state title. I like Connor Shields and Alex Ermold of District 3 to
maybe sneak up into the mix by the end of May. Don’t be surprised if smaller
district guys like Burke or Jonah Powell are factors. Which WPIAL guy will
emerge? They didn’t have a state finalist last year which was shocking to me
but they return guys with experience like Brown, Binda, Huff and Sam Snodgrass.
AA 800m
Returning Medalists:
Tyler Leeser, Milton (2nd)
Kamil Jihad, Neumann Goretti (3rd)
Griffin Sites, Towanda (8th)
On paper, this looks like a Jihad vs. Leeser battle. Of
course, entering the state finals last year it seemed like a battle between
those two as well. Then Robert Reichenbaugh flipped the script on everyone with
a 1:55.12 for the victory. I’d say Jihad is the favorite to this point. Leeser
has to prove he’s healthy and ready to roll (plus he may need to be all in on
the 800) while Jihad is already really fit. He was awesome during indoors and
he’s got a 1:52 PR (with a 1:53 to boast last year). Jihad also is fresh off
his best career finishes in XC and indoors at states.
Who can hope to disrupt this top two? My initial answer
is, I’ve got no idea. The AA 800 is looking for stars. Griffin Sites backed his
way into the final with one of the last times in last year before popping a big
PR and stealing a medal. He comes from a great program and maybe can continue
last year’s magic. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Joe Cullen mix it up in this
event and the 800 if he wants to (depends on the 4x4 situation at Wyomissing,
usually they have a good one). Sam Cunkleman of Homer Center is a sub 2 guy.
Can Seneca produce another contender after their brilliant 4x8 runs from year’s
past? What about Trinity?
As of now, I’ve got more questions than answers for this
event.
AAA 800m
Returning Medalists:
Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan (1st)
Hudson Delisle, Quakertown (3rd)
The two returning medalists have their share of questions
heading into the spring season. Josh Hoey is the state record holder these
days, but, as previously discussed, may choose not to defend his title this
spring. That would, in theory, open the door for Delisle of Quakertown.
However, the 1:52 man has missed a fair amount of time this winter himself.
Will he return to form in time to contend for an outdoor title? Then there is
reigning indoor champ Liam Conway. Does he want to try the double this year
after his wins on the 200 meter oval? He didn’t try it last year (which
surprised me a tiny bit) and so I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he skips the 8
this spring.
If these guys are all out, the door is open for a new
name. Tyler Shue, a sophomore who clocked a 1:53 indoors, is the logical name
to mention. He dropped jaws at PSU with two amazing performances and could
contend for a state gold. That would make him the first sophomore state champ
at 800 since Zach Brehm (in AAA) and Dom Perretta (in AA). Before them, it was
Tom Mallon. I don’t think I need to tell you this, but those are three of our
most successful state runners of all-time.
The 1:54-1:55 crop is deep. We’ve got Brett Zatlin and
Aidan Sauer who rolled to PRs during the indoor season, but we also have Matt
Eissler of Pennridge (a state finalist last year). Then you have the fast heat
guys from indoor states in David Endres (huge 1:54.9 breakthrough indoors),
Collin Ebling (1:55 best) and Jonah Hoey (1:56.01 best). It wouldn’t surprise
me to see Ethan Zeh of Radnor in the medal mix either. Radnor has a nice
history of producing medal winners. Also don’t sleep on Collin Ochs of CR South
who had one of the fastest 4x8 splits in the state during indoors.
Looking past district one (which is going to be an
absolute bloodbath just to make the district final, let alone states), the top
returner is Matt Busche of Franklin Regional. Last year, Busche led Franklin
Regional to the state finals in the 4x8 and finished one spot off the medal
stand in the 800. Nick Gabrielli of Kiski was a state qualifier last year and
is fresh off a career year on the indoor track. Nate Everhardt of Mount Lebanon
is also a returning state qualifier who captains a loaded 4x8 squad out west.
We’ve also got Seth Phillips of Mifflin County and Jack Wisner of Carlisle
(could be a big sleeper). I also think Rob Dupell of St. Joe’s Prep has the
chance to put together a monster performance. He ran 1:56.41 and 49.28 indoors
and just needs the right race to pop a 1:53ish kind of time.