Believe It or Not, It's Spring

This is it folks, we are in the home stretch of my blogging career with only one season to go! Let’s take a brief look at what could be in store for my final spring with you all.

AA 3200m

Returning State Medalists:

Brendan Miller, Upper Dauphin (3^rd)

Andrew Stanley, Southern Huntington (4^th)

Quinn Serfass, Loyalsock (6^th)

After a strong indoor campaign and a 2^nd place finish in A during XC, I’d say Upper Dauphin’s Brendan Miller comes into this one as the favorite. As mentioned above, he was 3^rd at states a year ago behind a couple of all-time seniors. He is coming off a season that included an 8:47 3k and 15:24 5k indoors (in his first serious indoor campaign). A year ago, he ran 4:25-9:28 for the long stuff outdoors (without that indoor season to really get him going). I think this kid will be a force to reckon with and should get under 9:20 for 3200.

Andrew Stanley and Quinn Serfass are the other top returning medalists. Stanley had a heck of a run at last year’s state championship, fearlessly going after an aggressive start and being rewarded with a 4^th place finish and a 9:29. After a career best finish in XC he will hope to continue that streak. Serfass seems like a legit title contender here. His Loyalsock team gives him the best training group as this squad was 6^th at states in XC behind a trio of medal contenders. Serfass himself was 4^th overall with a blazing time of 16:23. That’s the #2 time of anybody competing in AA this spring.

The #1 time belongs to the biggest wildcard in this discussion-Tristan Forsythe. The Winchester Thurston senior is the reigning XC state champ and the defending AA 1600 winner. He ran a career best indoors of 9:15.19 for 3200 and then added a state medal in the event at PSU. If he sticks with a 3200-1600 schedule, he may be the favorite for gold in both events. However, I’m thinking Forsythe will put his energy into defending the 3200 state title.

Some other names I like as contenders? I’d watch for Jack Miller of Jenkintown. He was sub 9 indoors for 3k and sub 16 in XC. Wyomissing’s 1-2 punch of Matt Driben and Ben Kuhn could contend, especially if Wyomissing needs team points for the title. The 4x8 will be the complicating factor there. I’d also watch for Josh Lewis of North East, the D10 champ during XC.

However, the two biggest names to keep an eye on are sophomores. Andrew Healey of Holy Cross and Ben Hoffman of Elk County Catholic were 9^th and 11^th respectively at last year’s championships, but I think one of these guys will crack the top 2 at states in this event in 2018. These are huge talents that were 4^th and 8^th at XC states as sophomores. They may be young, but that won’t stop them from chasing the top spot.

AAA 3200m

Returning State Medalists:

Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy (3^rd)

Noah Beveridge, Butler (5^th)

Ryan Campbell, CR North (8^th)

I think we can all agree – let’s see a Rusty vs. Noah rematch and see if they can push each other to sub 9. To date, Rusty has had the upper hand on Beveridge. After Noah took 5^th at XC states as a junior (tops in his class), Rusty was 2^nd, 3^rd, 1^st, 1^st at his last four state championships. Kujdych’s 9:04 time is tops among returners and his XC performance was nothing short of remarkable. Indoors, he dropped a career best in the mile and, with Hoey likely out of the event, could potentially try the 3200-1600 double this year and contend for gold in both (something to keep an eye on for both guys honestly).

However, Rusty will have his hands full. Beveridge too had a big indoor campaign that included a nice mile PR and some good speed work. He clocked an early season 8:44 in the 3k (super fast) while not focusing much on the event as his team shot up the standings in the DMR. Beveridge started last outdoor season with a modest 3200 best, got to 9:20 by districts and then all the way to 9:07 at states. He’s way ahead of that schedule in 2018. Plus, Rusty is up against history. The XC-3k-3200 titles have not been swept since Jason Weller did it all the way back in 2006-2007. In between, we’ve seen near triple crown victories, but the third leg has taken out Ryan Gill (2010-2011) and Jake Brophy (2015-2016).

Contrary to everything I just said, this will not be a two horse race. Ryan Campbell and CR North have proven time and time again that they show up for the big meets. Campbell ran 9:14 to claim a medal in a loaded field last spring and will back with a vengeance this year. Mitchell Etter of State College was the state silver medalist indoors and has strong outdoor experience from his 15^th place finish a year ago. My real sleeper pick is Morgan Cupp of Mechanicsburg. The senior was an absolute force during XC and qualified for states in this event a year ago. He’s been looking for that track breakthrough and I think it comes this year. Cupp and Mechancisburg rolled to a DMR victory to start their spring track season at the Upper Darby relays.

Other names include Dan Mcgoey, Spencer Smucker (will he run this event or the 16?), Patrick Anderson (really like this sleeper pick), the Penncrest boys, Carlos Shultz (how will he transition to Shanahan?), Tyler Rollins, Josh Lewin, Jacob McKenna and basically everybody. I can’t realistically name everybody if I want this post to be reasonable (and not sound like a Magic Johnson tweet). This event has the potential to be loaded.

AA 1600m

Returning Medalists:

Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston (1^st)

Joe Cullen, Wyomissing (2^nd)

Tyler Leeser, Milton (4^th)

Garrett Baublitz, Juniata (6^th)

This event has the chance to be stacked. A Forsythe-Cullen match-up is plenty to get excited about by itself. The top two returners from last year have a chance to push down toward the 4:10 barrier in the right race. Forsythe is coming off a season where his strength has hit another level, while Cullen was faster indoors at the mile than he was a year ago, adding a blazing DMR and another 1:55 800 to his resume. Plus, his training partners are at another level after their XC state victory, especially to help with the longer distances.

I’ve always been a Leeser guy. He was absolutely amazing last year and almost capped off his season with two different state titles. He’s one of the most underrated dudes around. We didn’t see much from him in XC, but he missed a good chunk of time midseason. After all that time off, he still came back and helped his team get to states (where he then pulled a 43^rd place finish out of seemingly nowhere). The guy is a huge talent and I want to see him atop the podium. However, he may focus on the 800 considering how stacked this event is.

Garrett Baublitz is the wildcard in all of this. The sophomore is young and perhaps a year away from contending for the title; however, he’s been racing above his age for years now. He would have been a state medal contender in the mile this year indoors had he entered. Instead he’s looking to build off the 4:19 time he ran as a frosh last year. He’s in a sub 4:20 club for freshman that is very small. Off the top of my head, Josh Hoey and Craig Miller (look him up young guys) were the only ones I remember doing that. They ended up pretty good.

This was a fairly senior laden even if you look further down the depth chart, but there will be surprises how emerge from the crop. I don’t have a long list of sleepers at this point (Gordon Pollock, Ethan Knoebel should contend), but this is an event where a star will emerge early in the season that I didn’t see coming.

AAA 1600m

Returning Medalists:

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts (3^rd)

A year ago this race was madness. It’s still one of my favorite state races ever because there were so many guys that (a) ran massive PRs and (b) had a chance to win with 300 to go. The top 7 guys all ran under 4:15 and we saw a blanket finish for the medals. Isaac Kole was your state champion after being an afterthought on a national championship DMR. What a turn of events!

This year, it seems like Conway vs. the field. Assuming Hoey continues his trend of skipping state championships, Conway is the top returner by time and place (comfortably). He’s also the reigning indoor state champ at both the mile and the 800. He’s on a roll this year with an XC state medal and a national qualifying performance. Plus, some of his closest competitors (Kujdych, Beveridge) seem to be leaning toward the 3200. Others (Baker, Addison, Ketler & Owori, Eissler) have potential 4x8 duties.

All that being said, whenever something begins to feel like an obvious pick in the track and field world, an upset is lurking. Maybe it’s Tyler Wirth who ran sub 4:20 last year and put together his first ever XC and indoor campaigns this year. He was just off the medal stand last year. Maybe one of the 4x8 guy’s teams dissolves or has an off race and the door is open for them in the 16 instead (like Kole last year or Kellar in 2010).

Heck, there’s plenty of guys that don’t really do indoors that could emerge as contenders by the time we hit the end of the spring. Nobody was talking about Jesse Cruise this time last year and the kid nearly stole the state title. I like Connor Shields and Alex Ermold of District 3 to maybe sneak up into the mix by the end of May. Don’t be surprised if smaller district guys like Burke or Jonah Powell are factors. Which WPIAL guy will emerge? They didn’t have a state finalist last year which was shocking to me but they return guys with experience like Brown, Binda, Huff and Sam Snodgrass.

AA 800m

Returning Medalists:

Tyler Leeser, Milton (2^nd)

Kamil Jihad, Neumann Goretti (3^rd)

Griffin Sites, Towanda (8^th)

On paper, this looks like a Jihad vs. Leeser battle. Of course, entering the state finals last year it seemed like a battle between those two as well. Then Robert Reichenbaugh flipped the script on everyone with a 1:55.12 for the victory. I’d say Jihad is the favorite to this point. Leeser has to prove he’s healthy and ready to roll (plus he may need to be all in on the 800) while Jihad is already really fit. He was awesome during indoors and he’s got a 1:52 PR (with a 1:53 to boast last year). Jihad also is fresh off his best career finishes in XC and indoors at states.

Who can hope to disrupt this top two? My initial answer is, I’ve got no idea. The AA 800 is looking for stars. Griffin Sites backed his way into the final with one of the last times in last year before popping a big PR and stealing a medal. He comes from a great program and maybe can continue last year’s magic. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Joe Cullen mix it up in this event and the 800 if he wants to (depends on the 4x4 situation at Wyomissing, usually they have a good one). Sam Cunkleman of Homer Center is a sub 2 guy. Can Seneca produce another contender after their brilliant 4x8 runs from year’s past? What about Trinity?

As of now, I’ve got more questions than answers for this event.

AAA 800m

Returning Medalists:

Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan (1^st)

Hudson Delisle, Quakertown (3^rd)

The two returning medalists have their share of questions heading into the spring season. Josh Hoey is the state record holder these days, but, as previously discussed, may choose not to defend his title this spring. That would, in theory, open the door for Delisle of Quakertown. However, the 1:52 man has missed a fair amount of time this winter himself. Will he return to form in time to contend for an outdoor title? Then there is reigning indoor champ Liam Conway. Does he want to try the double this year after his wins on the 200 meter oval? He didn’t try it last year (which surprised me a tiny bit) and so I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he skips the 8 this spring.

If these guys are all out, the door is open for a new name. Tyler Shue, a sophomore who clocked a 1:53 indoors, is the logical name to mention. He dropped jaws at PSU with two amazing performances and could contend for a state gold. That would make him the first sophomore state champ at 800 since Zach Brehm (in AAA) and Dom Perretta (in AA). Before them, it was Tom Mallon. I don’t think I need to tell you this, but those are three of our most successful state runners of all-time.

The 1:54-1:55 crop is deep. We’ve got Brett Zatlin and Aidan Sauer who rolled to PRs during the indoor season, but we also have Matt Eissler of Pennridge (a state finalist last year). Then you have the fast heat guys from indoor states in David Endres (huge 1:54.9 breakthrough indoors), Collin Ebling (1:55 best) and Jonah Hoey (1:56.01 best). It wouldn’t surprise me to see Ethan Zeh of Radnor in the medal mix either. Radnor has a nice history of producing medal winners. Also don’t sleep on Collin Ochs of CR South who had one of the fastest 4x8 splits in the state during indoors.

Looking past district one (which is going to be an absolute bloodbath just to make the district final, let alone states), the top returner is Matt Busche of Franklin Regional. Last year, Busche led Franklin Regional to the state finals in the 4x8 and finished one spot off the medal stand in the 800. Nick Gabrielli of Kiski was a state qualifier last year and is fresh off a career year on the indoor track. Nate Everhardt of Mount Lebanon is also a returning state qualifier who captains a loaded 4x8 squad out west. We’ve also got Seth Phillips of Mifflin County and Jack Wisner of Carlisle (could be a big sleeper). I also think Rob Dupell of St. Joe’s Prep has the chance to put together a monster performance. He ran 1:56.41 and 49.28 indoors and just needs the right race to pop a 1:53ish kind of time.