AA 3200m
The AA 3200 will not feature the reigning XC, indoor 3k
and outdoor 3200 state champion, Colton Sands, but that doesn’t mean we will be
missing an accomplished favorite at the top of the line-up. Jenkintown’s Luke
Miller enters this meet having run big PRs during the 2021 season including a
4:16 in the 1600 and a jaw dropping 9:06 in the loaded Henderson 3200. Very few
AA guys enter the post season with a time that quick (only guy I can think of is
Dominic Hockenbury, who won three straight AA 3200 titles from 2014 to 2016). Miller
has won a couple state titles with his team in XC, most notably when he was the
#1 man on the winning roster this past fall and his older brother Jack was
runner-up in this event the last time it was contested in 2019.
Although Miller’s PR is well above his competition, nothing is guaranteed at states – especially in the 3200. A slew of guys will be gunning to play David against Goliath. The most notable name may be Chris Hine, who ran the fastest time of the field at his district championships. The senior from Holy Redeemer was 5th in AA XC states this past fall (behind 4 guys who will compete in AAA on the track) and is hitting his stride at the right time with a 9:35 PR victory at his district meet. Hine’s been a dominant force in District 2, but he hasn’t seen the competition Miller has throughout the last five months. We’ll see if that proves to be inexperience or a sign that he just needed the right push to pop off another big PR.
The other top seeds based on District times are Michael Grechanyy of Fairview in District 10, Logan Strawser of East Juniata (D4), Kevin Jumper of Holy Cross (D2) and Brock Pennington of North East (D10).
Jumper likely played a big role in Hine’s PR at the district meet, as the Holy Cross senior was battling tooth and nail for that district title early last week. Jumper was second in the fall at A XC states (a second straight top 10 finish) and he spent his early years learning under Andrew Healey, an incredibly accomplished distance runner in both XC and track. Jumper definitely has the strength for a grueling final, the question will be more about what his track speed is.
Grechanyy and Pennington of District 10 both should be in contention for a top 3 finish. Neither was the district champion as Gabe Nichols earned that gold (he will compete in the 16 and the 8 at states), but both are plenty accomplished. Both guys medaled at this past year’s XC state meet, with Pennington getting all the way up for 7th overall. Grechanyy has not only run 9:34 and 2:01 this season, but he’s also one of just a handful of runners in this field that actually has experience at states in this event (he was 21st in 2019).
Logan Strawser of East Juniata, is just a sophomore and was something of a out of nowhere (from my perspective anyway) district champion. He knocked off Hunter Foust of Hughesville who has been a big name in this district for the past couple years despite entering the meet with just a 10:16 seed time. Typically there are a few young guys who get on the podium in Shippensburg, but the 3200 is a tough place to hang for non-seniors. Strawser is one of just 2 non-seniors in the top 13 seeds. This kid has a Cinderella story going and I’m excited to see where it goes next.
In terms of sleeper picks, look no further than District 7. There is always a ton of talent in the WPIAL, but it looks like fast times were not in store on either the AA side or the AAA side when it came to the end of the day at that meet. Patrick Malone of Winchester Thurston won the title in 9:53, but don’t forget he’s run 9:36 this year. Most years, the top guy wearing a Winchester Thurston jersey is a threat for at least the podium if not the gold. Malone was 8th at the A XC state meet, but I believe he won his “section” (don’t quote me on that, I never can quite remember how they split it up). Also coming from District 7 are Adam Lauer and Mason Ochs (two other returns from last year’s state meet, the later of which has a sub 16 XC PR) and Lance Nicholls (Malone’s teammate at Winchester Thurston who is also a state qualifier in the 1600).
I’ve also got to mention Thad Smith of Penns Valley (had a fantastic XC state meet this past year and has arguably the best training partners in the state in Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell), Adam McLaughlin of Punxsutawney (this team has put together a nice stretch in XC as well with McLaughlin picking up the charge) and Van May of Bedford (really, really talented XC performer who feels like he is the right race away from popping a great track time). By the way Dan Myers, the District 3 champion, has run 4:27 and has a bit of “home track advantage” given that District 3 just ran here last week.
Ultimately, I think this is Miller’s race to lose. It would be a bit poetic for Luke to take the title back for the family after Jack just missed it at the last state met. But I actually could see Luke’s victory playing out more like another Miller, Brendan Miller, who won the title in 2018. That year, Brendan had a solid advantage in the PR department and ran an aggressive race, but a controlled race and he was able to outlast the field. Undoubtedly, someone behind him will step up and find a big PR, but I could see that being any of a long list of guys. I think I like Malone as the sneaky pick.
8. Van May 9:40
7. Michael Grechanyy 9:37
6. Dan Myers 9:37
5. Brock Pennington 9:36
4. Chris Hine 9:32
3. Kevin Jumper 9:30
2. Patrick Malone 9:28
1. Luke Miller 9:20
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