AAA 1600m
The 1600 is always a really fun event at states and it usually
comes down to which kid is ready to drop a sub 60 second lap off a reasonable
to fast pace. This year, we’ll see if Gary Martin let’s the race unfold in its
usual fashion. The Archbishop Wood junior has already clocked an extraordinary
4:07 in the 1600 and quite frankly he made it look easy. With bordering times
of 8:49 and 1:53, it’s clear this guy has the chops to not just win the race,
but also attack Drew Magaha’s meet record of 4:07.32 (maybe even Paul
Vandegrift’s state record of 4:03.22). But here’s the problem, Martin doesn’t
only have this race to worry about. He’ll contest the 3200 before this and, if
he feels up to it, he’ll go for the 800 after that. It’s a tremendously
difficult triple against a tremendously talented runner. Who will win?
The good news for Martin is that he won’t be the only one
of his competitors that is sporting tired legs. Top seeds CJ Singleton, Weber
Long, Devon Comber and Graham Thomas all have the 3200 in the morning alongside
Martin (Dylan Throop and Jacob Hess from the “slow” section are in the deuce as
well). Plus Brady Bigger and Calvin Bailey will be racing the 4x8 (possibly
against each other) and contending for state gold. Depending on how Butler
attacks things, CJ Singleton and Skyler Vavro may also feature in the 4x8
(although my speculation is that they will pass on the relay).
So who does that even leave with fresh legs? District 1
Champion Declan Rymer steps into the spotlight. This could be a big moment for
Rymer. The kid has been a monster this year with times of 9:04 and 4:10 in the
long distance events, but he’s been overshadowed not just by Gary Martin’s
terrific season, but also by his teammate Aidan Barnhill’s record setting. In a
normal year, Rymer would be the favorite for either of his main distance
events, this season he feels almost like a “de-facto” contender because
everyone else is doubling, but I can assure he’s more than qualified. He’s got
the strength and he proved at districts that a sub 60 last lap is within his
wheelhouse. This guy is ready to go.
Skyler Vavro is another really interesting story. The
Butler standout admitted he had some disappointments during the fall, but he’s
been back with a vengeance in the spring. He’s got a great training partner in
Singleton and he had a major breakthrough at WPIALs with a 4:13.98 gold medal
performance. This kind of feels like it could be an Isaac Kole-esque moment
where Vavro caps off a career in the shadow of other big names (like Singleton
and his brother Sage) with a gold medal in the 1600. And yes, you are all
probably too young to remember Isaac Kole so you’ll have to google that
reference (there’s probably an article or two that mentions him on this site).
I always put emphasis on being fresh, but that’s not the
be all and end all. Plenty of guys have won this event with tired legs. Brady
Bigger is hoping to repeat the feat of State College alumn Alex Milligan, who
surprised almost everybody (not Sean Collins) with a 4:10 time to knock off
Josh Hoey and Mike Kolor after anchoring his 4x8 to a gold in 2016. Could
Bigger do the same thing? He’s actually runner faster in the open 8 than
Milligan, put up a better XC result (I mean, he won states), a better 3200
result and at the very least a similar 1600 PR prior to states. But Milligan
could really double. He proved it at the 2015 state meet and then doubled down
in 2016. Bigger didn’t have that 2020 state meet to prove himself, but he did
have the district meet where he won the 16 and the 8 (over a couple super
talented teammates) so he’s clearly not a slouch.
Devon Comber is one of the contenders for the 3200 title,
but he gave Rymer a heck of a fight on the double last week at districts in the
16. Maybe he can bottle that again in Shippensburg, especially if he gets beat
out for gold in the 32. Same can be said for CJ Singleton who has run 4:11 this
year and also has 1:55 speed (but could theoretically be on his third race of
the day). Or Weber Long who closed a 4:14 race in 56 seconds the morning after
his 3200 victory (still having a hard time getting over this). But just to reiterate,
we have Gary Martin in this field. The kid who ran 9:10-4:12-1:53 in a 48 hour
stretch without any competition and probably was feeling good enough to do more.
Maybe I should just not over think it? Eh, that’s not what etrain does.
As always, there’s lots of talent ready to scoop up a
medal in the middle of this field. Again, I’m not a big fan of the doubling
guys so I’m not giving them too much attention, but Trey Gannon has been lights
out for Lower Merion this year, Timothy Roden is just a sophomore, but he has a
ton of state experience, Mike Formica of Knoch has been running excellent times
since indoors, Caden Leen is multi-talented with some real speed and somebody
from the heat 1 group (maybe Maxwell or as a longshot perhaps Thrush) is going
to surprise, pop a big time and steal a medal from the fast heat. That just
feels how it will go, especially in a race where the 1600 where things
inevitably tend to get tactical (although again, Gary Martin is the exception
to seemingly every rule).
Ultimately, as I often do, I am picking with my heart and
not necessarily with my brain. Sometimes that pays off (see Dorenkamp, Kole, Brehm)
and other times it does not (see basically every other prediction I’ve made
ever).
8. Gavin Maxwell 4:17
7. Caiden Leen 4:17
6. Brady Bigger 4:15
5. Trey Gannon 4:14
4. Mike Formica 4:14
3. Declan Rymer 4:12
2. Gary Martin 4:11
1. Skyler Vavro 4:11
No comments:
Post a Comment