AA 1600m
Of all 8 of the races I’m writing about today, this one
may be the most interesting to me. On the surface, you’ve got Colton Sands who
is currently the reigning Cross Country (A), 3200m (AA) and 3,000m (everybody)
State Champion. But we haven’t seen Sands much this spring and I wasn’t even
sure if he was healthy before he and teammate Brendan Colwell popped at
districts, finished 1-2 in the 1600 and the 800 and announced they were still
really, really good at running. These guys inserted themselves in the
discussion for the state title, but have they had enough seasoning to actually
win this race over some proven speedsters?
A number of guys in this field have already proven 4:20
this season including Gabe McConville and Carson McCoy (the only two in this
field to do it at districts) as well as Gabe Nichols, Luke Miller and Luke
Seymour. Nichols had a dynamic district meet and has run the equivalent of 4:14
for 1600m already this spring. You can make a strong argument he should be your
title favorite. Luke Miller has run 9:06 for 3200 which is far and away the
best AA time this spring, but he does have the 3200 to run ahead of this state
final. Although he’s clocked a 4:16, it’s going to be tough to repeat that kind
of time with tired legs, especially if he’s already got a gold to celebrate
from earlier in the morning. Seymour operates more from the other side of the
coin. He came up as an 800 guy, starting from the time he was a freshman, and
he actually finished 6th in that event at 2019 states. Now he’s grown
up a bit, logged some extra miles and lowered his 1600 best to 4:18.01. But he’s
still got that wicked 800 speed if he needs it.
Unlike a lot of the other races, there’s real talent in
the “slow” section of this event. Most notably, Ian Zimmerman ended up there
after an easy win at the District 5 championships. Zimmerman was 4th
at states in 2019 in the 1600 and has low 4:20s ability. For company, he has
Zack Bucker (has run 4:26 in 2021, but will likely be doubling off the 4x8) and
Port Halabar (also likely doubling) along with sleepers Thomas Smigo, Anthony
Gargani and Joe Wolfe. I have to think Zimmerman will get after it on race day
and make a push for a top finish and if the second section gets tactical at
all, than Zimmerman could steal one of the marquee medals (and pull some of his
heat mates to fast times alongside him).
I haven’t given much time to the District 7 guys, but
they have 5 of the guys in the fast heat and the top 3 overall seeds, so maybe
I should. Kirk Stewart has been piecing together strong races for years at
South Park and he’s now a 4:21 and a 1:58 guy. He has state championship
experience as well, contesting the 1600 in 2019. Carson McCoy is only a junior,
but the kid has been putting on a clinic in 2021. You can make an argument he
would have been the favorite in the 800 had he chosen that even considering he’s
already posted a 1:54 time this spring. But he’s taken a liking to the 1600 and
a 4:18 mark puts him in contention for gold in this event. His 800 wheels may
take him over the top. Then of course you have Gabe McConville who beat all
those guys at districts. He’s run 1:57 and 9:44 to couple around his signature
distance and he’s already proven he can win major races against big
competition. It’s going to be hard to bet against any of these three on race
day.
Lots of sleepers in this event. I touched on some of the
slow heat guys, but also watch for Mitchell Brett of Kutztown, Toby Cree of
Central Cambria (if he has enough left after the 4x8) and Sean Aiken of Eden
Christian (only a sophomore, but has some real talent as proven during XC).
There’s certainly plenty of 800 speed in this event (it
feels like half the field is qualified in that event as well), but I think
there is enough aggressive runners to help keep this thing fast enough that
Zimmerman can’t steal it. The biggest question I have is whether Sands (and
Colwell) have enough fitness right now to contend for gold, or if they won’t be
able to hang when the real kicking starts. There’s a lot of talent on that
Penns Valley roster, it’s just hard to know where the health is. I hate to pick
against talent, but I really like the way Luke Seymour has been running. The guys
out west are absolutely terrific, but I think Seymour comes up clutch and
topples the TSTCA crew to steal a state gold.
8. Mitchell Brett 4:24
7. Ian Zimmerman 4:22
6. Kirk Stewart 4:21
5. Brendan Colwell 4:20
4. Gabe McConville 4:18
3. Carson McCoy 4:17
3. Gave Nichols 4:17
2. Colton Sands 4:16
1. Luke Seymour 4:15
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