NCAA Champs DI

Men's Race Noon ET
*Women's Race 1:15 ET*

The NCAA championships is coming up with some exciting match-ups set to go down on the team side. There is a strong pack of teams up at the front, making it hard to pick a clear winner. It's not easy to pick a winner out of the bunch, but this is my best bad for how things will play out at the champs:

1. OK State
Look, if you are a betting man just put it on this squad every year. The defending champion Cowboys have saved their best race for the NCAA championships the last few years and pulled down almost every title since I started watching. Thomas Farrell has shown signs that he can be a top 5 guy at the NCAA this year to solidify a low stick for the men in the bright orange. He will be coupled with the likes of Shadrack Kipchirchir, Joseph Maniliflasha, Kirbuel Erassa and Criag Nowak. This is a very capable top 5 to mix it up with, Erassa is definitely a sleeper pick off his big season indoors last year in the 3k and Mile. They have been quiet about exactly what pieces they have and cruised in a pack a week ago giving them a little extra rest looking ahead. As Flotrack pointed out, they won't lose, some one will have to take their title.

2. Colorado
Colorado was in a shoot out of a region last weekend and that is no joke to come back from. NAU beat them out, but I don't think that was CU's best work. The buffaloes have super frosh Ben Saarel helping lead the way out front who will be a very intriguing piece to the puzzle. He proved his clutch racing ability more than once a year ago in HS, but how will he handle his second 10k in a span of 8 days? But it's not like Colorado is built around one guy. Pierce Murphy was the squad's leader at the NCAA qualifier, but guys like Morgan Pearson have led the team at other points in the year like Pre-Nats (Pearson was the squad's #4 last weekend). Ammar Moussa also could step up with a big day. He was their #6 at the Mountain regional. Also interesting to watch will be if Jake Hursyz makes a surprise return for NCAAs like some rumor mills have been saying.

3. NAU
The squad currently ranked #1 in the NCAA is my #3. NAU has been competitive year after year at the top, but is this finally the year the team get's over the hump? Clearly I'm betting no, but this is still one of the crew's best finishes of the past years despite having had the likes of David McNeill and Diego Estrada in the past. Now the guy is Futsum Zienasallasse. Well .... It's something close to that anyway. Futsum was 3rd in a very competitive region a week ago and has proven he can be a big time racer. He is just starting to take the next step as a Sophomore and may be ready to make a big jump at NCAAs. NAU also boasts Brian Shrader, Matt McElroy and Josh Hardin. Shrader should benefit from the speedster of a course that is Terre Haute and McElroy proved himself a year ago at NCAAs as an All-American. Hardin and Nathan Weitz will need to come up big to keep the spread tight to Futsum. If they do that they pull of the win and back up their #1 ranking. The boys from Flagstaff may be ranked number by 1, but for most people if these guys hoist the trophy it will be an upset.

4. Arkansas
Arkansas has been pretty dominant this year down South led by Kemoi Campbell the Jamacian sensation and Stanley Kebenei. The duo took the 1st and 2nd spots at their regional over the likes of Ryan Dohner and Craig Lutz of Texas who are a couple of All-American type runners. Arkansas's big 3 is rounded out by Solomon Halie who had a bit of an off day at the regional but is a former Footlocker Champ who can come up big on the big stage. Campbell is a real threat to be an NCAA champion this year if Kithuka slips up and gives Arkansas a potent low stick to lead them in this quality field. Arkansas will need a strong showing from their 4-5 guys if they are going to fight enough to avoid being swallowed up in this field. They could easily slip down a ways if things don't click in the back of their pack, but I think Arkansas, like they did on the track, will peak well for the NCAA championships.

5. Oregon
Probably a fan boy kinda pick right here, but I think the Ducks were saving some things for the National Championships including 13:30 5k man Jeremy Elkiam. My inside source in Oregon says they held out a couple key pieces to prep for the NCAA championships. If Elkiam can run an XC race to match his track performances at Terre Haute, than Oregon is really going to turn heads at the championships. Super Frosh Ed Cheserek will look to continue what has been a dream season for the little Kenyan as he tries to win his 3rd straight top caliber race. He will pull Parker Stintson out with him and both will try and take a top 5 spot at NCAAs, with Cheserek appearing to be almost likely to do so. The question is can Cheserek and fellow freshman Jake Leingang handle two straight 10k cross country races? Will stud 1500 guy Mac Fleet continue his breakout XC season in a second straight 10k? It's been a while since Oregon was relevant with the top teams in the NCAA, but I think thanks to their new freshman leader, this may be their return to the top tier.

After this top 5 group it's going to battle between these teams in particular order:
Columbia- They have had a surprise break-out season on the trails this year, but will it translate once more to the big stage? Jake Sienko leads the way for the Lions. I have another soft spot for this team thanks to my summer at Columbia this summer in NYC, but I have a tough time buying into this team as a top 10 team, especially after Syracuse beat them at regionals.

Stanford- Fantastic group of runners with Rosa leading the way and Erik Olsen, Mike Atchoo and Sean McGorty helping the cause. McGorty another one of the super Freshman in this year's class has struggled lately but will hopefully bounce back for the most important race of the season. The only question is can Stanford overcome their history of bombing at the big meet? They have not put together a great championship race in quite some time despite consistently being projected as a top 5 or so team.

New Mexico and BYU- A couple teams in that brutal Mountain region. Fun to watch Jared Ward back running and running fast. Both teams were right in the mix with NAU and Colorado.

Villanova and Syracuse- Both teams were regional champions and Nova has quite the group of big names on their roster including McEntee, Williamsz and regional champ Tiernan, but neither team has made a significant splash on the big stage in recent years.

Iona and Wisco- Big name squads, but not enough results to warrant a top finish for either crew this year.

Texas and Princeton- Texas has some great runners out front and run well with Arkansas at the regional. Princeton has always been a strong XC team with talented runners. Both teams could be top 10 squads if they have their day in Terre Haute.

Big sleeper picks- Eastern Kentucky and Tulsa

So that's basically every team in the NCAA at this point ... so how about we talk individuals?
Kennedy Kithuka is certainly the favorite out of Texas Tech. He is the defending champ and beat Lawi Lalang and Stephen Sambu convincingly a year ago. He is going after a course record and will dare the rest of the field to try and hang on to an absurd pace at the Championships.

The question becomes who can possibly challenge Kithuka and who is crazy enough to try? Kemoi Campbell may fit the bill. I watched him at Penn Relays a few years back go out at a very quick pace against kicker and 4:05 indoor miler Alex Hatz to take down the 3k, and Kemoi has continued to run impressive out-front races both on the track and on the trails. He won't be afraid of Kithuka on race day.

Anthony Rotich out of UTEP will also surely look to challenge Kithuka from the gun. Unlike many of the top guys in the field, Rotich has no team ties out on the course and will not have to try and run strategic to not risk blowing up. He is a very quality steeplechase man who has done very nicely in his first year of XC.

If you're looking to go big on the upset train, maybe take a look at Maksim Korolev of Harvard. He has run some incredibly impressive races this year and has a nice resume of wins. He won the Northeast regional of Matt Gillespie and has helped lead Harvard to the NCAA championships as a surprise team. The Crimson front runners have been impressive this year and at Paul Short they proved that in a big way in brutal heat.

Paul Chelimo of UNC-Greensboro has been on the big stage performing well for a while now including some very strong track times in recent years at NCAAs. Chelimo will almost definitely be in the top group and his consistency and experience should prove valuable in a race as competitive as this.

Not too long ago Ed Cheserek battled Futsum Z all the way to the line at the Footlocker championships. Now the two are among the favorites on the big stage this year. Cheserek is on a roll as of late and has already carved out quite a reputation even in a place as historic as Eugene. As for Futsum Z, he has been leading the #1 team on the nation all year with excellent poise and racing. Both have team aspirations which may hold them back from going with a fast early pace, but both guys will likely be battling hard to give their team a quality low stick.

Thomas Farrell faces similar obstacles for OKSt with certain obligations to make to the team title race. But OK St has had guys like Girma break the top 5 despite team goals, and Farrell very well may be next in the line of great runners from the bright orange.

Chris O'Hare, Tulsa- Excellent 1500m who has excelled at cross. Great range and versatility exhibited throughout the year after making the finals in the 1500 at the World Championships not too long ago it is amazing he has been able to get this fit that fast.

Patrick Tiernan, Nova- Another freshman to go with this excellent class of guys, he and the Nova team have potential to really surprise or potentially also show that the Atlantic region just isn't on level with the rest of the nation.

Jared Ward and Andrew Colley are a couple of consistent impressive performances on the trails. Both are always in the mix for a top 15 or so spot in a race like this.

Some PA names worth mentioning:
Tyler Mueller, Lehigh (The Hill School)
Matt Fischer, Penn State (Unionvillle)

Lots of good young guys who are on the verge of being on the national scene from PA like Brendan Shearn at Penn and Conner Quinn doing well at PSU. Good to see PA represent out there. Also nice running by Brad Hough at Akron finishing top 35 in his region.