Piecing Together the District One Picture: Henderson

District One is going to be absurd this year as usual and the next few weeks should really help us piece together what the meet will look like. Keep in mind only 8 individuals/relays max can get through to the state champs. That means in races like the 8 and the 4x8 people who hit the SQS might not even make finals and those who hit the SQS in trials may not hit the SQS in the finals and therefore not even get to go to states (a process which I find dreadfully unfair considering D1 is the only district that even has trials and finals).

In order to get a better picture of exactly what kind of times it might take to get through to the state championship, I figured I'd write up a few speculation pieces to pass the time. The most interesting piece to the District One puzzle will be the Henderson crew. I believe the qualifying marks are something like 1:59.64, 4:29.24 and 9:50.24 but not sure on that last one. Assuming that's the case we are looking at:

800m
Thompson (1:54)*
Russell (1:56)*
Moy (1:57.48)
Stratman (1:58)
Collins (1:58)

1600m
Russell (4:09)*
Barchet (4:16)*
Stratman (4:17)*
Collins (4:18)*
Moy (4:21)*
Waltz (4:24.64)
Knapp (4:27)

3200m
Russell (8:57)*
Barchet (9:03)*
Collins (9:16)*
Stratman (9:18)*
Waltz (9:39)
Knapp (9:41)
Note: Swart is right around the mark at 9:50.33

I believe the rule is only 3 per team per event which means lots of guys are getting left out of the equation here. I also marked all the marks that are under the SQS in each event as a point of reference. This group has 4 guys under the 32 state mark (by a lot) and 5 under the 1600 SQS (Waltz is less than half a second away from being the 6th). The team also has a district qualifying mark in the 4x8 that is worth noting (8:04.12).

All signs out of the Henderson camp point to Russell doing the double: 3200 and 1600. I think this is a worthwhile goal and something that is very possible considering how well Russell has raced this year. So you can basically pencil him right away for those two events (and only those two events realistically). Barchet seems to be a logical choice for a focused 3200m effort. He is in a position to be go after 1-2 with Tony at the state meet and I think he deserves the opportunity to chase individual glory after having basically no chances to run the 3k indoors. So I'd pencil him in for a 32 (and only a 32, although there is an outside chance he may test his luck in the 16, I just don't see it happening).

So that leaves just one spot left in the 32 to be split between Collins and Stratman, who are both no bonafide members of the sub 9:20 club. Sub 9:20 guys are usually right around the lock category for states out of District One in the 32. That kind of talent usually gets you through the difficult district meet so either Collins or Strat would have an excellent shot at punching a ticket. Collins beat Stratman last time out at 32 and Stratman has had nice success at the down distances like 8, 12 and 16 so the logical positioning would be Collins in the 32 and Stratman in the 16.

Worth noting here: Collins and Stratman both ran the 32 last year at Districts with Stratman getting the last spot in 9:28. Not sure if that will be a factor here because there is space in the 1600 for one of them, but it is interesting to keep in mind.

With Strat in the 16 and Collins in the 32 that leaves one spot in the 16 which may end up belong to Waltz if Henderson decides to focus Moy (top returner from the 1600 at states last year) on the 800 instead. Thompson is taking up one spot in the 8 regardless, that's his event and he is an early favorite to grab one of the state spots out of the district. If they see Moy as a better choice for the 16, then Waltz and Knapp are relegated to a 4x8 B squad similar to their 8:12 effort from a year ago. You have to feel bad for Knapp who is a 4:27/9:41/15:30ish guy and is buried on the depth chart on this stacked squad.

So right now the speculation would indicate something like this:
800
Thompson
1600
Russell, Moy, Stratman
3200
Russell, Barchet, Collins
4x8
Knapp, Waltz, G. Barchet, Swart/Aldrich/somebody else

The advantage of this set up is if somehow Strat or Moy miss finals in the 16 they can jump in the 800 and try and get to finals in that event. You have 7 guys in the individuals who have state qualifying marks and great PRs across the board. The bad news is guys like Knapp and Waltz are left off the individual roster and end up doing a 4x8 that will likely struggle to make it out of the prelims against the stacked field that awaits them.

Now they could vary that individual line up and throw Strat and Moy in the 8 and switch Knapp and Waltz into the 16 but then you put Strat in a tough spot as the 800 is probably stretching the limits of his speed and Knapp and Waltz are far from locks to make a final in the 16. It let's more guys compete this weekend, but it hurts people's chances of competing the following week at states.

They could also get creative with a 4x8. Think about this for an option:
4x8
Moy, Thompson, Startman, Collins
1600
Russell, Waltz, Knapp
3200
Russell, Barchet, Swart (if he can get under between now and then)
800
Thompson, Moy, possibly Stratman or Collins if you feel like it

In this situation you fill out your card. That 4x8 could compete for a district title (and therefore a state title). Moy 1:55 Thompson 1:54 Stratman 1:57 Collins 1:58 gives you 7:44 before you add in tenths and there is room for improvement across the board. That team could give SC a run for their money at states and definitely could take on Pennridge, CB East, and whoever else is at the top of the District. Plus you always have the option to use Barchet in the trials to keep someone's legs fresh for the finals like Nick Bonaventure used to do for Penncrest before his 32s.

Meanwhile you let Waltz, Knapp and Swart get their shot at the individual events while the big dogs like Russell and Barchet are still in a great spot to lock up their individual goals. Thompson can double back Chaborek style and get into states in the open 8 and Moy and Strat or Collins could take their shot at it as well.

The problem with this situation is that you leave a couple sub 9:20 and sub 4:20 guys on a relay and outside of the state medal conversation at both events. You limit Moy and Thompson's qualifying abilities if they are tired with doubling legs. Is it fair to these guys who put everything into the indoor relays to now sacrifice their individual aspirations for the relays? Or would they rather go after state gold in the 4x8 than nip around at medals in individual events?

I personally want the 4x8 situation to happen. I think it would be really cool to have Henderson in the state title talks (I personally really wish there was some crazy situation where Russell somehow ended up on the relay as well but with a 32-16 double on his plate no way is that happening) and Strat and Moy and Thompson have already shown up big time on some key relays. It would be nice for Collins to get some relay hardware even if it is down in distance a bit for him.

But what I think will happen is probably some version of the individual based model I layed out above. I think these guys are just such big talents individually you have to let them go after state medals in their best events and see what happens.

I'll tell you one thing, I'm glad that I don't have to make the decision.