Event by Event Predictions: AAA 4x800m

Ah yes, my personal favorite event of any meet, the 4x8 and an exciting field to surround it with. Let's get right down to some predictions.

Heat 1
Look, District One produced 8 teams which are fantastic teams and most if not all will be running in Saturday's final. The real trick will be predicting which other teams will fill the final. District One can only send 8 teams to the finals at best which means 4 other teams are not only going to make the finals, but also compete for medals and state gold. The most obvious team is State College, the indoor state champs, and I expect them to advance without too much issue. West Chester Henderson and Pennsbury out of District 1 are two other teams that I believe are going to advance to the final. I've been on the Pbury bandwagon for a while and I think Henderson is a fantastic relay that is just starting to reach potential.

The last couple spots out of this heat are tricky. I got the last auto qual being the boys from Penncrest. I think they will get a big leg from Chris Kazanjian in the prelims (he won't run finals because of the 32) which will be a difference maker. Penncrest is consistently solid at states in the 4x8. After them it will be a dog fight between Cedar Crest, Altoona and Bensalem with Bensalem's best shot being a big day from Kyle Francis on the anchor. I'm not sure we will see Francis in an all out effort in the trials but that remains to be seen.

Heat 2
In the second heat I see Pennridge, CB East, North Penn and Carlisle getting the capital Qs. This makes the somewhat bold assumption that Carlisle's Zach Brehm will be running hard on the 4x8. There is no guarantee that will be the case this weekend considering how full his schedule is. If he is on the relay, with fresh legs in the trials he will be able to will this team into the finals.

After those teams it's a bit of a toss up. There is the Whitehall squad that I have been pushing as a sleeper pick for the finals for about a month. There is Seneca Valley, a District 7 team that has two studs on the relay. Indiana Area, who beat that Seneca Valley team in one of the biggest, who are these guys moments of the weekend. There is St. Joe's Prep, a solid team that has the potential to run well under 8 minutes in a competitive race. And there is also Cardinal O'Hara who had least has a fraction of a chance of running a loaded relay and surprisng everyone with their appearance in the finals. Plus Boyertown and Eli Mercado and Emmaus, a nice story out of District 11.

I don't expect O'Hara to load up their relay even slightly so they are out. I think Seneca is the best of the rest and gets into the final on time. After that ... it's very, very tricky. I think it's either gonna be Whitehall or St. Joe's Prep (no offense meant to the D7 champs) and I'll pick Whitehall because I feel obligated to after all my talking about them.

So that makes the 4 time qualifiers: Whitehall, Seneca, Cedar Crest and Altoona.

Now what happens in the finals? Another tricky question.

As far as I'm concerned I believe there are only 3 teams with a realistic shot at gold: Pennridge, Henderson and State College. State College is the clear favorite. They won indoor states easily, have run strong at 4x8 and 4x4 all season, and ran the fastest 4x8 of anybody this year at Penn Relays. Cather is a 1:53 guy on the anchor with Mason Post developing into a 1:55 leg with serious pop and Kyle Adams coming on very strong as of late. Golembski has experience and a 1:57 PR that makes him a nice lead off. He keeps them in contention and the rest of their legs chase. They won't have too much doubling going on the previous day although Post, Adams and Cather are all signed up for individual events in addition to the 4x4. But this team has been practicing doubling and tripling for this very occasion. The legs project to be something in the 1:58-1:55-1:55-1:53 type splits which gets you to 7:41 and change.

Henderson is a fantastic team. Thompson is a 1:54 guy with great speed. Moy ran a huge 1:55 leg at Penn and should have another chance to shine on this relay. Collins is a 1:57 guy with impressive range up to 3200m. He could end up splitting 1:55 on race day like Chris Aldrich a few years back. Eric Stratman ran a clutch 1200 leg at Penn and has 4:17-1:58 ability in the opens. He is a great relay runner who anchored this team to a state title in the DMR indoors. If you add up these legs you have a team on paper that looks like 1:54-1:54-1:56-1:56 isn't unreasonable. That puts you at 7:40 and change.

And then there is Pennridge. Somehow Pennridge finds themselves banging with the big boys in the 4x8. They beat Henderson last week at Districts. They beat SC in the prelim round at Penn Relays. They have improved substantially each week and somehow, without the big names and flashing performances, Pennridge has fought it's way into the state title conversation. It shouldn't be the case, on paper they look like a 1:58-1:57-1:57-1:52 type squad (7:44 and change) which isn't the league of the other teams. Henderson won the DM at indoor states and Penn. SC won the 4x8 at indoor states. And Pennridge? not in the medal hunt indoors. But Joey Logue has developed into a stud on the anchor leg and the other guys are confident that if they keep it close, he will get the W. And that makes running a lot easier. Take it from a guy who ran with Sam Ellison.

Those 3 are the teams I see as top 3 and I think any of the three could win, much like the Pennridge-Chambersburg-CV match up we saw a few years back.

The rest of the final is equally intriguing. North Penn is always a good 4x8 team. They are well coached and they have a great, focused squad for this meet. LeConey could be a 1:54 type anchor and Piscitelli and Grace and others add nice depth to the relay. I'm honestly not even sure if Grace runs both the relay and the 16, I'm not sure just how deep this team is. They ran 7:53 and 7:51 on back to back days, and I think they can get under 7:50 this weekend.

CB East is running a completely fresh squad. The Brophy bros sacrificed some individual glory. Jake especially with that 3200m after his indoor performance. He knows they need everyone as fresh as possible to stay competitive. Boucher and Donello are great legs as well. This team is 1:55-1:55-1:57-1:58 with room to grow. I like this team a lot and I hope they continue to roll here at states.

I think Seneca and Cedar Crest will have big weekends, I like Foster and Cruise to have nice anchor legs. I just wonder how good the other pieces can be. Altoona always shows up at the district meet. Now they just need to make me believe they can do it at states. I'm nervous about them, because I know their potential is very strong. They have a nice 1:57 average on paper as well.

Pennsbury was the 3rd place team at states a year ago. They were probably closer to 2nd than 4th when everything was said and done. They are close to the same team this year with O'Connell and Sauer being better, Webb being about the same and their 4th leg not quite being at Connor Harriman level. That's the thing, Harriman was a big set the tone guy as a senior leader and strong lead off leg (he handed off at first at states last year). We will see if Harriman blazed the trial for his younger teammates, or if they miss him on race day.

Penncrest is always solid. Always. Emmanuel and Komat have proven they are strong legs, if the other guys show up they have potential to turn heads.

And of course Carlisle. How good can this team be? They ran 7:57 last week with Brehm only running 2 flat. So they have room to drop. But how low can they go? With Brehm on the anchor, few leads will be safe, but he will be a busy boy this weekend. Carlisle's peak is likely 7:50ish, but they could also end up at 8 flat with a disinterested and tired Brehm out of it on the anchor leg with individual events looming in the not too distant future. Only time will tell on this one.

Ultimately when the dust clears here is who I got:
1. Pennridge 7:43.11
2. State College 7:43.29
3. Henderson 7:43.95
4. CB East 7:46.91
5. North Penn 7:50.18
6. Pennsbury 7:51.77
7. Penncrest 7:52.32
8. Seneca Valley 7:53.82

I'm going Pennridge for the upset! It's bold and it might be crazy, but I'm calling a huge anchor leg from Joey Logue to run down Thompson (I'm assuming he anchors but don't know) and Cather in a finish for the ages.

It's crazy, but hey what's the fun of picking all favorites?