Event by Event Predictions: AA 4x800m

Ah the AA 4x800m. Certainly on paper, without a single team under 8 minutes by seed, people may be quick to skip over this event in their prep for the state meet. However, the drama around the 4x8 should be pretty intense. The top seed coming in (Washington out of District 7) is seeded at 8:05 but there are a ton of teams (4) under 8:10 with another 7 under 8:15. The battle to get through to the finals will be especially tight because with teams like Marian Catholic, New Hope-Solebury, Lakeland, Masterman, and Northern Potter being teams with significant chances to drop times. You can never count out teams like Lewisburg, Trinity and Quaker Valley who have impressive histories at this event. Plus you have big time anchors like Goodspn and Andrew Miller as well as Griffin Molino and Mark Arzie who will step onto the track and test their skills. This race could be pretty exciting.

So let's take a quick look at which teams I think are advancing to the finals:
Heat 1
South Williamsport Q
Wyomissing Q
Windber Q
Lakeland Q
New Hope-Solebury q
Lewisburg q

Heat 2
Boiling Springs Q
Washington Q
Trinity Q
Mercyhurst Prep Q
Northern Potter q
Masterman q

This was a tough one to call because I had to pick against teams like Northeast Bradford who I really think could make noise. Same goes for Beaver Area, Mt. Carmel and Quaker Valley. Those are very solid teams. I think there is big potential for my predictions to get nice and shook up, but assuming this holds, what will happen in the finals?

The first thing I did when I was looking over my predictions was go take a look at Washington's roster. This team is the number one seed in the 4x8 but I hadn't heard of their guys before. They have D'Heaven Kelly (2:01) and Del Bredniak (2:02) as leaders of this team. Their 4x4 ran a solid 3:28 so clearly these guys have speed. DeQuay Isbell, if he is utilized on the 4x8, is a big sleeper for a big split. He has run 50.02 in the open. Quorteze Levy is a really solid 300m hurdler (38.63) who probably isn't involved in the 4x8 but certainly has the strength. Washington was 12th a year ago in the final.

Lakeland didn't run anything crazy at their district meet, but if they are running a loaded relay this weekend they could potentially really turn heads behind Mark Arzie (1:57 guy) and Nathan Morgan (4:21). Meanwhile, Wyomissing was the 2nd place squad a year ago and may have the fittest anchor in the field in Andrew Miller (1:55 already this year). They will have Kyle Shinn running the 32 which will tire him out a bit. Trinity was 3rd a year ago and is always a very good team out of district 3.

Boiling Springs has Jonathan Goodson on the anchor ready to roll and try and bring home a title. The team needs some other guys to step up with no one else under 2:08 in the open this year. South Williamsport has Griffin Molino on the anchor and he is a very capable leg, however, he will be coming off a very competitive 3200m where he will be competing for the gold. That is going to take some sting out of his legs.

Schuylkill Valley is focusing all their energies on the 4x8 with a 1:59.05 man in Clay Stabolepszy leading the charge. They were right on Wyomissing's shoulder at Districts. Northern Potter put on an impressive performance at their district meet and is a returning medalist squad from a year ago. Same can be said for Masterman.

Mercyhurst has Sebastian Curtin running a key leg for them, he's a tough miler with solid speed. New Hope Salisbury has Greg House, district champ in the 16 and Colin McClusick, a 1:58 man.

So with all this in mind, who will win? I think it is going to come down to which team has the most depth. Guys are going to be tired and although the anchors will play a big role, the race is more likely to come down to which teams can set their anchors up during the first 3 legs to take the race down.

And that's where things get tricky. A lot of these teams look similar on paper. Ultimately, predicting this race is a very difficult task for me. I think there is the most potential for change in this race out of all the races on the agenda for this weekend. Ultimately, here is my prediction

1. Wyomissing 8:02.70
2. Washington 8:04.13
3. Windber Area 8:05.62
4. Lakeland 8:06.09
5. Boiling Springs 8:06.19
6. Trinity 8:07.15
7. Schuylkill Valley 8:07.99
8. Northern Potter 8:12.88

Windber Area at 3? A little known team out of District 5 is my big time sleeper in this race. I expect them to rise to the occasion at the big dance and drop a lot of time when they finally get some solid competition. That may be a bold statement to make as sometimes a team's inexperience in fast races costs them on the big stage, but I'm banking on a big drop and a surprise upset for this squad.

This race is going to be really exciting. Get your popcorn ready for the AA 4x8 ladies and gents!