Event by Event Predictions: AAA 3200m

The 3200m features some of the best to play the game at 2 miles and will make for a historic battle. As some of you probably know I keep a list of guys who are sub 9:20 for 3200m in state history and this year the list has grown substantially. Here are the sub 9:20 guys this year (in this race alone) in no particular order:
1. Tony Russell
2. Ross Wilson
3. Dominic Deluca
4. Colin Martin
5. Sam Webb
6. Jeff Groh
7. Reiny Barchet
8. Aaron Gebhart
9. Kevin James
10. Patrick Reilly
11. Andrew Marston
12. Chris Kazanjian
13. Casey Comber
14. Matt McGoey

Brent Kennedy's PR is sub 9:20 and a few others are right on the edge of being under. A few guys (most of them wearing Henderson jerseys) broke 9:20 this year and won't be contesting this event at states because they have opted to focus on other events.

So, yeah, we get it by now, this field is absolutely loaded and it's hard to believe there have been recent years where 9:08ish got you a state title, but what does this year hold?

I expect a fast pace. We didn't see at District One because Russell doesn't really want a fast pace, nor did Ross Wilson. Sam Webb was just happy to be involved up front as he grabbed a nice PR. However, I don't expect that whole, nobody wants a fast pace thing to hold at Ship. Colin Martin and Matt McGoey took things out in about 4:31. Deluca ran 9:03 solo so I'd imagine he made things pretty quick.

So the pace will be fast. That means that if you aren't ready to run 9:10ish then you are likely going to be out of medal contention. If you aren't prepared to break 9 then you are going to have a tough time winning the state title. This is assuming the weather is solid out. If it's hot (which it definitely has been in the past) we could see some casualties. Going out too fast could really sting over the final stretch.

I'll assume the weather isn't too horrible and that means I expect the front pack going out hard to be some combination of Russell, Wilson, Deluca, Martin, James, Groh, Barchet, Reilly and Webb possibly also McGoey in there.

That's a pack of 10 guys keep in mind. Not all of them can grab medals, even if they all break 9:10. I think 8 of those guys will be your medalists but I do also believe someone like Andrew Marston could run strong and even and steal a medal from somebody who is fading hard. Chris Kazanjian is a clutch runner at state time and could possibly end up holding a medal when the dust clears. Aaron Gebhart is somebody I have always been a fan of so certainly he too could have a Marston type role, but his 1600m the day before kind of worries me when every second will count in this race. Comber has been consistently solid all year, I'm just not sure I see him breaking through and running 9:12, but again if it's hot or crappy out Comber is a factor.

It's amazing to me that guys like Knudsen and Luke Regan won't get so much of a mention in medal predictions, but these are guys that could make big drops this weekend. I think both of these guys could really shine out there even if they are overshadowed by the studs that are lining up with them.

Brent Kennedy is very good as well, it just feels that, unfortunately, his injuries have held him back a little bit too much. But if things click he has a strong PR and a great resume that could help him sneak out a medal.

Out front, I ultimately expect Tony Russell, Ross Wilson and Dominic Deluca to break free over the final 800m when things really get moving. This three have been incredibly impressive all year and I think they have the best strength and ability of the bunch. When it comes down to the finish, I think Tony Russell is taking gold. He has the speed and the strength and has been unbelievably focused this year. He is chasing history and he will be fresh besides a prelim for this race and he should be able to run pretty easy in his prelim. He has just been on a different level this year and I think he will take this win.

Ross and Dominic have looked very strong all year as well and they have clearly focused on this race and are going to give everything they can to get the title. Unfortunately, I just think it won't be enough to be an all-timer like Russell. Barchet is the wildcard here. I beat Deluca at Henderson and was right in Ross Wilson's backyard. Barchet has been running the best I have seen him over the past few weeks and although he can sometimes be up and down if we see a motivated and focused Reiny, he could potentially make this a 1-2 for Henderson. I think it's more likely he ends up somewhere in the mid-medalist pack, but there are no guarantees on that. I have flashbacks to Reiny his junior year in XC when he went on a great run to get 2nd at regionals and all american at nationals.

Kevin James and Sam Webb are a couple of my favorite runners. I don't think I've really hid that well over the year. Both of them are going to run hard and gutsy in this race, but how far up can they finish. I think James has a better ceiling than Webb because he has already run 4:14 and 1:55 at the lower distances, excellent lower distance work for him. He beat Ramsey Kerkula heads up in the 800 as a 2 miler. That's pretty sweet. Kev could end up in the 9:05ish range this weekend, although that still might only be good enough for 4th or 5th. As for Webb he had an unreal race last weekend at Districts just sticking his nose in it and hanging around. He medaled last year in the state 3200 which is pretty solid considering he was just a soph in a very impressive field. I'm not sure he can manage his performance from last weekend because it was so strong and he has had serious injury issues, but he is a tough nut to crack and should stay in the medal hunt for all 8 laps.

Colin Martin was the indoor state champ right? He now has a PR just as fast as his brother who won the state title last year right? He was in the top 5 last year in this race right? Ok just checking. Because he has suddenly fallen out of the state title talks for all of us including myself! Martin had a rough Penn Relays for sure, but that's one tough race in the midst of a fantastic season. Martin is going to hang around and be in the mix. He doesn't have the 1600 credentials many in this field do, but he has a state championship and that is something very few have. And Matt McGoey? I just have this feeling. I've had it all year. I get the feeling McGoey is going to have a big break through at states. I'm not sure it will quite be 9:03 Ryan Gil style but I have this hunch he is going to run 9:05-9:10 and be a medalist. It's just this gut feeling. NA has produced results in the 3200m at states between Gil and Steiner and Justin Taylor and Matt Jacob before them. Maybe McGoey is just next in line.

I really like how Jeff Groh focused up on the 3200m. Groh has had a really strong season at a variety of different events but he decided he doesn't want to try both the 32 and the 16 this time around, he wants to focus and go after a big time medal and maybe he is even thinking gold. He is super talented and he might be on the verge of a big breakthrough. He has been in this race just outside the medals for a couple years in a row and I expect him to be in the hunt again. Patrick Reilly is my sleeper. He had a big time race indoors and ran 9:15 earlier this year. I think he can bounce back from districts in a big way this weekend. He and Groh are both very strong 3200m guys and they will both be in the medal hunt.

I am a big fan of so many but I can only pick 8. And here is what I got.
1. Tony Russell 8:58.11
2. Ross Wilson 9:00.67
3. Dominic Deluca 9:01.00
4. Colin Martin 9:03.77
5. Matt McGoey 9:05.98
6. Kevin James 9:07.15
7. Reiny Barchet 9:09.27
8. Sam Webb 9:10.16