This event was perhaps the most intriguing of all the events I will discuss. Maybe it doesn't have the biggest names or the fastest times, but certainly has had plenty of compelling plot-lines. Last year the AA 1600m ended up becoming something of a snooze fest as a Curt Jewett DQ left Smathers in command to run away with the race for a second straight year. This year both Griffin Molino (4:12) and Dominic Hockenbury have opted for the 3200m (and only the 32) which leaves the door open for the youngster Domenic Peretta to take center stage and grab a state title. Peretta ran 4:19 and 1:52 a week ago and now finds himself as the favorite in both events. Smathers and Havko (4:12 and 4:10 PRs respectively) come to mind as the league he could end up in when the dust clears at states and he is only a sophomore! It's unbelievable the corner this runner has turned in the past week.
But the race around him will truly be exciting as well as the battle to qualify for the finals in the 1600m will be tight. There are lots of strong runners with fairly similar PRs and abilities that will toe the line for the prelims, but only 12 can advance on to Saturday's final and take a shot at a state medal. Here is who I expect to be in the top 8 of each heat.
Heat 1
Morgan, Simon Smith, Gonoude and Parsons are my Qs with Trimble, Kachman, Sweet and Cole being the ones to sweat it out and see who got through to the next round. I am expecting something around a 50-50 split for time qualifiers to get through and I like Trimble's chances. Sweet could sneak through as well. Both of those guys had surprisingly rough times getting into the finals last year, so with an extra year of experience they will be better prepared for the heats.
Heat 2
Curtin, Peretta, Wilt and Vella are my Qs with Degroot-Lutzner, Carter Smith, Thrush and Sutton being my guys to round out the top 8. Degroot-Lutzner from Masterman has been on my radar for a while in the AA landscape and I like his potential to surprise. Thrush is a cool story here as just a freshman, but this is a tough stage for a freshman to handle for sure. I'd be impressed if he gets through, but he has the most potential to drop time arguably out of the group. That's what makes his name an interesting one to scan for in results.
Ultimately my projected final would include Lutzner, Trimble, Kachman and Sweet getting through on time with the Qs. There could easily be a few shake ups there, but that's my best bet.
So now we look at the final. The first thing to note is that a lot of these names are likely going to be pulling double duty with the 4x8. Nate Morgan from Lakeland would have the 4x8 beforehand if his team chooses to go after it. They have two very strong legs in Morgan and Arzie but ran just 8:35ish in qualifying. Not sure what their plan is, but I'm guessing they can put together a team that competes for a spot in the final. That puts Morgan on the line with tired legs.
Then you have others like Lutzner for Masterman who could conceivably make the final as well. Same can be said for Sebastian Curtin and Mercyhurst. That puts some tired legs in the final.
Surprisingly (or surprisingly to me anyway), Gonoude decided to do only the 1600m and skip the 32 which is the opposite of what I expected. That could provide a nice leg up on guys like Kachman and Wilt (and Carter Smith or England if they were to make the final). Peretta will have 1600 and 800 prelims under his belt, but the 16 will be his first final.
So what will happen in the final? I think this is certainly Peretta's race to lose given his achievements, particularly at 800m. With guys like Molino, Hockenbury and Goodson dropping out, the door is even a bit wider for him to glide through and take state gold. He is just a sophomore which is always a cause for concern when analyzing someone's state title potential, but he has been doubling and tripling impressively all year and beating a variety of different opponents. He will be tough to stop and I think he will really turn heads with the fastest 1600m time of the weekend.
Behind him the race for 2nd gets pretty tight. Curtin is probably the favorite after his 5th place finish a year ago, but I really like the way Simon Smith has been running for Towanda. He pulled an upset victory over Griffin Molino last weekend and if there is a guy who I think could upset Peretta here it is likely him. Tyler Vella was also in last year's final and his experience could help as he tries to go for a top 5 spot. The district 4 guys tend to show up at the AA state meet. Pay attention to those names.
Nathan Morgan had a very nice performance at his district meet, but I think Lakeland is getting into that 4x8 final. If they don't, Morgan is up in the pack for 2nd. If they do, he might slip a ways and fall on the edge of medal contention. Jake Parsons from Maplewood is a nice contender to watch for. He and is brother will be at states together and have had solid XC careers in A. He is one of the few seniors at the top of this field and that should play a nice role in a successful race. He is definitely a name to remember for a top 5 spot.
Brady Wilt and Kachman will have their hands full after the 32. How the heck Sam Williams could do the 32, 4x8 and 16 and do all of them well is beyond me. He was probably the only one I have seen do them all solid. Very, very rarely does someone come back from the 32 and over achieve in the 16. I could see one of these guys sneaking a low medal, but I'd be very impressed by anything better than that.
Overall here is what I think the final results will show:
1. Peretta 4:12.75
2. Smith 4:19.24
3. Curtin 4:20.15
4. Parsons 4:21.80
5. Morgan 4:23.74
6. Gonoude 4:24.11
7. Vella 4:24.29
8. Lutzner 4:26.33
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