The Seeding Question

I found the discussion of seeding earlier this weekend particularly interest because, for the first time in my career, I will be seeding myself in a few weeks in my first post graduate track meet. 

Considering my training has been streaky at best, it's a real challenge to slot myself somewhere on a piece of paper, especially considering I haven't raced a mile in almost a year (by the time I do race it, it will have been over a year). 

Coach's have a very difficult job. If I can't figure out where to seed myself while I've been running and racing the mile for over the decade, I'd love to see a coach try to seed a freshman who has never run an indoor race in his life without giving a 20 second range.

The delicate science of predicting times is something a blogger like myself has tried to master for years and failed at on more occasions than I can even remember. But predicting and seeding are different animals and much be judged as such.

There is a strategy to seeding. Some coaches may see particular potential in an athlete and understand that in the right race they could run a lot faster than their PR. Others may choose a conservative approach, trying to make sure than their athlete doesn't go out too hard and overextend themselves. Still others may feel that their athlete needs to have the experience of being in a fast race and failing to hold on so that at a future date they will be stronger and ready to hang on.

The season is long and lots of coaches have varied approaches for each athlete and each situation. 

Overseeding will always be an issue. Everyone wants to be in a fast race. Everybody is at least a little biased towards their own athlete. It's impossible not to be. It took me a long time to understand what reasonable goals are for a given race or a given season and it takes coaches time to determine their athletes ability.

Kids improve or, unfortunately, go backwards at all sorts of rates. In high school, especially the first meet of December in indoor track, these improvement curves are still be determined.

Plus, there is game theory at work. You can seed your athletes at any time. By now it is well known that coaches have tendencies to overseed their athletes, so there seeding someone at their actual time ends up being the equivalent of seeding someone 10 seconds too slow.

I understand why people are upset when certain runners are clearly overseeded. It feels like more deserving athletes are left out of hears where they would have better competition. Sure, that's fair.

I'm sure there are success stories from being overseeded and an athlete raising to the occasion to run a huge new PR ... But then, was the athlete really overseeded? Or was the potential just properly judged?

Here's the thing, I've been overseeded and underseeded a bunch of times in my 8+ years of invitationals and all my best races came when I was underseeded or correctly seeded. As far as I can remember, when I've been over my head in a race, I've gotten shot out the back and ended up discouraged, tired and slow. 

Meanwhile, when I've been in races where I feel I can win, where I'm running near the front with even splits, staying competitive, I feel better. And more importantly I run faster.

Maybe this is only the way I operate, but I'd imagine runners, who are competitive in their nature, run better when they race the field instead of racing the clock. Get too caught up in times and splits and it never works out well.

Out of my 4 fastest open 800m races of my life, I won 3 heats and was 2nd in the other. I could have been seeded faster in some cases and maybe that would have helped, but I'm a believer that I wouldn't have handled things as well physically or mentally.

Honestly, I think that a coach is doing a huge disservice to the athlete if he overseeds them in a race. As far as I'm concerned there is no advantage. 

I'd bet borderline guys run better in the slower heat than the faster one most of the time. No way to prove it, but in my limited sample size of watching myself and my friends (lots of examples other than me of guys over their heads blowing up) that's what my data shows.

Think of it this way, what's the best rabbit? Someone who runs way out ahead of you, or someone who is just a step ahead of you, inches away that is almost equal to you in ability, but pushes you at all the right moments?

Honestly, I used to get really angry about seeding at these invitationals. I used to be obsessed with getting in the right race so I could just sit in the pack and get dragged to a fast time. But I was in those races and that didn't work. When I said screw the time, I just want to go win: I ran my PRs. 

In my opinion, if you are out there and you see a kid seeded way over his head, don't be angry at him. Don't be jealous. I'd just smile to myself and think: thank goodness my coach knows what he is doing. 

And then I'd go out and run a PR.