Grab a Pillow and Blanket

It's still very early, but looking over results it appears that district one may be more wide open than usual. Besides DT West and CB West, the top teams graduate a lot of key seniors: Stoga loses 6 of 7, Henderson and CRN lose 3 of their best 4 and CB East and Pennsbury will lose members of their district top 5 who played key roles in the teams success.

Of course then you remember that Henderson and CRN seem to make states regardless of whatever is on their roster and CB East has the best runner in the state and you realize maybe it's not as wide open as it appears ....

I really think CRN and Henderson are more vulnerable than ever in 2015, but it's still early and track hasn't shown us some stars on the brink of a breakout. 2015 will also be a huge year for Stoga. A lot of teams take time to rebound once their wave of seniors move on. It's the mark of a top tier program when you can consistently overcome the strain of graduation and still be competitive. Great Valley is still trying to find an identity after losing Willig, Wolffe, Willig and Zatlin. North Penn hasn't made it back to states since losing Davis and Trimble, the last real ties to the state title teams. Horsham hasn't been able to get back to states since Hibbs and Quinn were at their peak together. These are really good programs, but to be considered the best of the best you need to overcome these lags. Stoga will look to earn some respect in 2015 by doing just that.

Henderson loses the three guys who were their top 3 runners in 2014. Yes, Smucker was their #2 at states when it counted, but up until that point Knapp, Barchet and Swart were the guys. The strength of the team was it's top 3 before the Smucker breakout and then it briefly became a top 4. Passed Spence, they didn't have a guy sub 17 and to make it out of the difficult D1 meet, you need a complete squad of 5 guys.

Yes, they rebuilt this past year after losing 6 of 7 from the back to back state champs, but I'd argue that the hardest time to do well is normally 2 years removed from your state titles. Swart, Barchet and Knapp learned a lot from being around the guys on those state title teams and their training improved in their key sophomore and junior years as a result. Losing the last true ties to state gold will hurt more than it appears on paper. Read Chapter 3 of my NA story for confirmation.

But that doesn't mean Henderson is done. They will still be a good team with a strong coach and an excellent front runner. In 2011, two years removed from their state title, the Henderson boys reloaded with young sophomores and juniors and grabbed another district title when few expected they would be able to do it. Tony Russell took a leap, Charlie Grab helped bring the young guys along and Sam Haugh ended up sub 16 and top 50 at states as a #2. This Henderson group has a lot of young talent that Coach Kelly should develop well. It's way too early to judge how good this team will be until we see how the young guys develop on the track.

The other good news is they return a freshman medalist, a rare occurrence indeed. The top frosh performances in recent years include Craig Miller (top 5), Vince McNally (13th), and Jake Brophy (30ish). As sophomores Craig Miller won a state title, McNally was 3rd and Brophy was 8th. Not too shabby. 

I'm definitely a little nervous for CRN as well, more so than Henderson because they don't have the clear front runner advantage. I'll be interested to see what they do on the track. They've recovered from the loss of Campbell and Wilson in the past as well as medalists like Wallace and Zingarini but this year you could argue they don't have the logical waiting in the wings group they had in the past (although this group looks comparable to what they returned in 2010-2011 and they were nearly top 5 at states that season and better than the year before). Like I said, it's early, so we will see how things develop on the track. But the smart thing to do is pencil these guys in because they always find a way to get there.

The bottom line is it's really hard to make states, especially when you love in District One and CB East found that out the hard way. Keep in mind they were just a few points away from DT West, who finished 4th at states, and had run quite well at Pre States so maybe they could have challenged the top 5-10 teams or so. They would have, at the very least, had the #1 team scorer and another in the top 25 or so. So this team is stronger than many will remember and they return 3 of their top 5 and 5 of their top 7. Most importantly, they return Jake Brophy, the reigning state champ, who will be able to show everyone on a daily basis what it takes to be a state champ. 

Most years, a team usually rises from the 20s or so to challenge for a state spot. This year it was CB West and their up and coming group of youngsters, before that it was Conestoga and in previous years it was teams like Unionville or Great Valley or Pennsbury. Next year there are a few young teams like Souderton and Owen J Roberts who are led by some young up and coming studs who may surprise teams and turn heads. Only time will tell who can make the difficult climb to the top.

Outside of District One, there are plenty of sleeper teams of which to take note. One of my favorite teams to watch is Ephrata in District 3. They return all 7 of their varsity members from 2014, including top 50 finisher at states Nate Becker and individual state qualifier Zach Lefever. In a loaded D3 year, they were a top 6 team in the district and nearly were surprise state qualifiers a year early. Their top 4 returners had an impressive 32 second spread at districts and if they continue to develop as a more complete team, they could be a Twin Valley 2.0 type of squad.

Also in D3 is a deep sleeper team in Mechanicsburg. They return their entire top 5 from this past year including top frosh Morgan Cupp and a very good sophomore in Alex Tomasko. Those two make for a young, talented 1-2 punch. Thomas Nicewicz will be a strong senior leader to join the trio out front. To be truly competitive, they need develop the final pieces of the pack, but often times when you have a great top 3, the rest of your pack has a way of working itself out (or at least that's what happened for NA, North Penn in 2009 and 2011, Altoona in the past and countless other examples).

Plus, I like this squad because you can tell those guys really want to be good. Their top crew signed up for an extra month for Footlocker, a really tough task at such a young age.

Parkland out in D11 returns 6 of their 7 varsity members from this past state meet, including stud soph Michael Geiger. The Parkland boys were overshadowed by the dominate Easton squad, but next year is their turn to try and take back over as Easton loses their key piece out front, Colin Abert.

In D7, Pittsburgh Central Catholic is poised to make a run at a state birth. After Jeff VanKooten, the rest of their varsity squad from districts is all due back in 2015, including state qualifier Dan Young and the Gatti boys. This program has produced three different medalists over the last 9 years and one district runner up in Mike Runco. Now they will chase another team qualifying birth and maybe even a top 2 finish at districts. 

Tell me your sleepers and thoughts if you'd like and get ready ... One the first indoor meets start rolling in ill start talking track.

I figure cross country may not be over, but track is starting. So if they are both going on at the same time, I can talk about both too. 

Plus I mean ... It's track. Who doesn't love to talk about track?!