Track Time

Another year, another track season. With the first meets of the year now just around the corner, I'll throw down some of my very early thoughts about the first season of 2015.

Maybe it's because we just finished a season of cross, but it seems like the 3k is absolutely loaded while the other distance events are pretty lack luster. 

The 800 is incredibly wide open. Sure that sentence looks very stupid a couple months from now if Jon Lewis decides he wants to chase a new gold (I'm betting he won't) or Zach Brehm decides he wants to actually have a serious indoor campaign (again I'm thinking no).

(the kid is looking to peak at outdoor states and outdoor nats and he has shown the past 2 years he's all about proper peaking, I'll start judging how good his final season will be after he's done winning 3 or 4 events at districts)

So you fill in the gaps with top returners Connor Holm, Alek Sauer and Andy Stewart (the only 3 returners from last indoor states). None of these guys had particularly notable XC seasons and at least one (Stewart) was noticeably MIA. Sauer ran like a champ by the end of last outdoors, splitting about 1:52 and doubling back at 1:54 in the open to grab a medal. Last indoors he was one of the last guys into the hot heat (you know, the one where Kyle Francis took off like a bottle rocket and blew the lid off the place with his 1:50?) and probably ended up in over his head. This year I'd bet he's much more prepared.

Holm became more of a miler last outdoors and I think that might be his best event. However, with the 8 being this open, he might as well throw his hat in the ring and see what he can do. 

Elias Graca is a wildcard here. He broke through for a 1:53 last season before slipping through the cracks in a loaded state prelim. He backed up his breakout track season with an impressive display of endurance, placing in the top 30 at states and just outside the medals. I'm not sure how serious he will approach indoors as a WPIAL runner, but Fox Chapel just had a state champ indoors in the 3k, so if Graca wants it, it's possible. I'd give him favorite status at this very early point in time.

If things stay as they are now, without anybody clearly running away with the race, it's probably time to start considering Hoey or Ritz and even maybe Kevin James for the mile-8 double. All of those guys have run at least 1:55 and 4:12 equivalents and all three are coming off fantastic XC seasons. However, Hoey is coming off an injury and in the process of switching schools and James will have a relay to think about in addition to the 3k and the mile. So really that just leaves Ritz, who is still looking for his first indoor medal, let alone his second gold. 

Bottom line: these first few weeks I'll be on high alert for the next big thing in the 800m (besides Jon Lewis who will run plenty fast this year I'm sure, just not at states).

The mile is a bit more interesting. Although Hoey is the only returning medalist, lots of on the rise names are coming back from this event including Abert, Kolor, Sponaugle, Weidner, Ritz and VanKooten among others.

I seriously doubt we will see Perretta make an appearance indoors (he barely made an appearance during cross country) and I'm guessing Molino (if healthy) will be focusing on the 3k (although a mile-3k double out of him is within reason). 

It's reasonable to think one of the national qualifier guys decides the mile makes more sense during their shortened season. Brophy has worked on speed before and proven himself well. Plus if a relay is in the picture, the mile makes more sense. And Brophy hasn't been afraid to make sacrifices for the team in the past. Same can be said for KJ who should seriously consider taking a run at the mile considering his achievements, the relay potential and the high probability the 3k will be loaded.

Comber is interesting. He has nice flexibility, a mile or a 3k could fit him depending on training and he's no slouch in the speed department based on his running last year. 

Webb or McGoey may also choose to come down in distance to the mile if they think it makes more sense with possibly relays. Same goes for Marston. Marston and McGoey aren't quite the proven speedsters that James and Brophy are, but they are still capable of sub 4:20. Webb is tricky because he has solid wheels on relays, but he has terrific 9:08 strength that make the 3k difficult to pass on. But if a relay is in the picture you never know.

With Hoey's health still a bit of a concern, I'd give the edge to Ritz as of now, but Hoey has the better overall resume to back it up. I'll be very interested to see how the guys I mentioned outside of district one: Kravitz, Sponaugle, Kolor, VanKooten, Abert, take this season and if they can contend for a mile title.

Indoors has been dominated by d1 and independent league teams (I count the PCL schools in that mix). Altoona and State College have also had success. A few particularly talented distance guys have dropped impressive 3k times and solid miles, but the titles rarely fall outside the TFCAofGP. So these guys will have their hands full.

I'm a big fan of Kolor, partially because he helped my fantasy squad, partially because he's an improving runner with a strong resume. VanKooten has something to prove and was fantastic last outdoors. Kravitz ran really solid at Paul Short where he showcased impressive speed. Weidner was a state medalist, Sponaugle was awfully close. 

Throw in Alex Milligan, who was 16th at states and is at a very solid middle distance program with proximity to a nice indoor track for meets, and add in one of the only sub 15 guys in state history in Abert and this field is brimming with talented speedsters who have yet to break through for the flashy indoor PRs. And you could also throw McDevitt and Wills from Malvern Prep on the list and Diestelow plus Ben Wilson from Central Dauphin.

And who knows which XC breakout stars will showcase surprising speed on the track. And maybe even Brehm will throw his hat in the ring just for fun? This will be an intriguing field.

Finally we have the 3k which is straight loaded on paper. Not even counting guys who probably don't seriously do indoors (Hockenbury, Gebhart, etc) you have likely candidates Jake Brophy (3rd last year, state course record holder, 1:55-9:20s), Kevin James (1:55-9:03, 4th last year, hungry for a title), Andrew Marston (8th last year, 15:18 and 9:17 ability), Matt McGoey (medalist last year indoors and out, 9:12 PR), Casey Comber (Footlocker finalist, 15:12, sub 9:20 and 4:20 and 7th last indoors), Sam Webb (9:08 following injury plagued year, 1:57ish relay speed). 

You could possibly see Jaxson Hoey involved (sub 9:10 last year) although I'd be surprised. Nick Dahl and Sam Ritz just ran 9:11 and 9:12 on the track and I'm also an idiot for not bringing up Dahl earlier than right now. Ritz is almost definitely staying clear of the 3k (though he could run fast and compete with these guys if he wanted to) but Dahl could easily end up here (depending on relay stuff). He ran around 1:58-4:22-9:15 last year as just a freshman. He's already made massive improvements at 5k and dropped his 3200 PR a couple more seconds. What's to stop him from running low 8:40s indoors? His teammate Grayson Hepp (9:20s at Henderson meet) could also play a role. GFS usually likes to load up a DMR so if they feel they have the pieces, we may not see those two in any open events.

Griffin Molino was 9th last year and that was with a late start from Nats. He's a 4:12-9:19 guy who could easily hop in here. Hockenbury ran 9:17 last outdoors and won the AA state title. Deluca had a successful indoor campaign last year so Hock may try for something of the same. Billy McDevitt from Malvern Prep is coming off a very good XC season that followed a very impressive indoors last year where he ran multiple sub 9s. If Malvern Prep is willing to take a chance on risking him in the 3k-DMR double (which they may have done last year? Not sure their order choice but I know Jaxson led off), McDevitt will be in the medal hunt.

Paul Power was right in the mix at 3k as well last indoors and although he didn't come away with hardware, he did drop his PR under 9 minutes. He had a killer XC season that included a 15:24, 15:50 at Hershey and a 14th place finish at regionals. He could be a factor in this race. 

You also have Jon Perlman returning from last year and, if healthy, he will be very competitive. Will Loevner was a surprise qualifier in 2014, but he won't surprise anyone this time around. He was 4th at A states for the state champion Winchester Thurston. Maybe he will bring along Mackey or Littman or another small school WPIAL guy to the big dance this year, including his talent teammate, Landin Delaney, who joined Loevner at states in the 3200 last outdoors. 

Hunter Wharrey could join McGoey on the starting line or Ryan James could do the same with his brother Kevin. Nathan Henderson, Henry Sappey, Zach Seiger and Alex Knapp all proved this last XC season that they could run with the top pack, but will they showcase enough speed to break into the medalist or title talks? Can DiCintio or Shinn make an impact out of AA? Maybe Lapsansky can get here after his medalist campaign in XC.

I personally am hoping Abert finally gives the 3k/32 his full attention this year, I think that is his best event and he can do some serious damage there. The other sub 15 guys have run 8:48, 9:02, 9:07 and 8:57 for 3200m. That's a beast group.

Lastly, I'll be very interested to see who tries to use their XC fitness to sneak a qual time in December. I think this is a brilliant strategy and lots of top guys have used it (Furcht, Norris, Shearn to name a few success stories) and then backed of and rested. It paid huge dividends for Furcht (he was able to focus on the mile and improve his speed), Norris (same idea) and Shearn (he ended up fighting through injuries and was able to be smart and recover and still have his spot on the line at states safe and sound in his back pocket).

You still have plenty of time to take off and recover (it's only December) and if you are racing all the way Til nationals anyway, what's the one extra weekend? You barely even have to train, just stay fresh, break 9 and punch your ticket. (Yes, I'm aware I'm making that sound way easier than it is. The 3k time is fast as anything. I've watched 5 different teammates who were all very talented chase it and all of them missed. It's brutal).

This years flat/banked times:

9:00.23/8:59.43

4:32.43/4:31.73

2:00.73/2:00.13

Happy hunting!