Relay Races

Before I get into the relay stuff, quick shout out to Sam Ritz for blasting a 4:14 and mixing it up with college kids at Haverford. I'm assuming he used his XC fitness to be sharp early and blast a qual time that will probably end up being the fastest time in the PA regular season, barring some really impressive running. Hopefully Ritz can get into the Millrose Games this year and obviously this is a promising start to his indoor season. 

Now for a little relay discussion. When looking through potential indoor relay champs, especially the dmr, it helps to take a look back at XC. Consider this, in 2014, 2013, 2010, 2009 and 2007 the state champs in the DMR were also top five teams at states in XC. In 2008 you can probably argue that LaSalle would have been a top 5 team, had they been in the PIAA (although I haven't researched this enough to say for sure ... They were 2nd at states the next year and in 2008 they had Dan Lowry who was 12th at NE Regionals).

So when looking at the DMR take a quick scan down the list of squads in the top 5 this year and that points to one of NA, Stoga, O'Hara, DT West and Easton. O'Hara stands out from these teams because they are the defending national champs. They have arguably the best anchor leg in the state and had three medalists in XC. Plus they return Nolen, a member of their 4x8 that placed 2nd last indoors. 

DT West, with the addition of the Hoeys quickly finds themselves in the conversation relay else as well. It's unclear how much speed was on the original roster (excellent running at hilly courses this past season indicating possibly strength over speed) but if you are a good runner, you are a good runner. Sappey was 10th at states in XC as a Junior and few people with that kind of achievement on their resume can't bang out at least low 4:20s. West has also proven itself in the 4x8 in the past with some very good teams revolving around Alex Jenkins and Ken Leidal, so they can develop speed. And then of course add a 4:11 equivalent guy with 1:55 speed and 9:07 strength and I think it goes without saying that is a huge boost.

I'm intrigued to see if NA throws together a DMR that puts them in the title hunt. They've run it twice at states, 2011 and 2012, and were never really competitive for a top spot, despite having Gil, Steiner and Tonzo on the roster. This team does it's best running outdoors, doesn't appear to have as much speed as strength and their best runner, McGoey, will almost definitely run the 3k, meaning that he would be quite tired for any DMR push. Can anyone name a solid 3k-DMR double in state history? No one has done particularly well in both, but I suppose there have been mild success stories. Overall, no one has won the title in both and I strongly doubt it will happen.

Easton is an interesting team. Abert has shown nice mile speed and although I think he and Lapsansky are built best for the 3k, talent is talent. Getting two medalists on two legs of a relay is a nice start, especially when one of them dropped 14:55. 

Stoga is another seemingly strength driven squad, but Murray had a nice track season last year, Marston is a champ who just ran sub 15:20 in less than perfect conditions, and they went over 7 deep this past year in cross. They have options, but they will need to get some speedsters to emerge from the line up. 

The DMRs that have won states have also usually had game changers on the team. The 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014 state champ squads prominently featured state champion milers. Lowry was arguably the best miler in the state in 2008 when he anchored his team to the title, running 4:12. The 2011 Wissahickon team had future state champ Hong Cho and the 2007 Henderson squad had future footlocker finalist and two time state silver medalist Chris Aldrich. I've also watched guys like Wade Endress, Jack Huemmler and Mike Palmisano (junior year) drag relays that were otherwise average to all-state status. There are very few success stories in the DMR that do not feature an a great miler on one of the big legs. 

What does this mean? Well CB East has the reigning XC state champ and the next big thing in PA running. They return a 1:55 800m man in Boucher and a top 50 XC runner in Connor Sands, plus a few other young pieces with potential. They could hoist the trophy when the dust clears at PSU. 

Carlisle has the reigning outdoor champ in the mile so if they pursue indoors seriously, they are a dangerous team. GFS may have a game changer waiting in the wings in Nick Dahl who could help swing the title their way.

Teams with potential to mix it up for the belt also include Malvern Prep, led by McDevitt and Wills, LaSalle, who was second last year despite graduating many key pieces and had an encouraging XC campaign in 2014, and Altoona, who may have been the #2 team at states if they had chosen that relay over the 4x8. 

Speaking of the 4x8, let's talk about that crew. The 4x8 is more speed driven then the DMR and often times the best teams lean on 400 guys moving up just as much as 1600 guys moving down. The defending state champs, State College, lose their experience and their stud anchor in Will Cather, Kyle Adams and Chris G but I believe they return breakout 800m star Mason Post. They also return alternate and newly crowned district XC state champ Alex Milligan. Those two pieces already make you a strong time. You also have to remember state college raced their b team often last year, many times in big spots, and they performed quite well. They had a ton of depth and I doubt this years squad will be a big drop off from 2014.

Penncrest is one of the best teams year in and year out and in 2015 they return their key pieces from their state medalist squad. Emmanuel and Komat, 1:54 split and 1:56 split I believe, should both be back this year. This team is quietly one of the most successful mid distance programs in the state and they will contend again. Usually this team focuses it's efforts towards peaking when it counts during outdoors, but there are times like 2008 (runner ups in the DMR) where the team makes a big push for state gold.

Pennsbury and O'Hara should both contend if they choose to focus their energies on the 4x8. I think both teams are likely better suited for the DMR all things equal, but the recently both teams have shied away from that race to focus on the ocho. Pennsbury has a true game changer in Sauer who was fantastic last outdoors and could contribute big this indoors.

Seneca Valley was a state medalist team last outdoors and indoors and although they lose their best runner from that team Brett Foster, Mike Kolor continues to develop as his replacement. Tanner Quiggle had another solid XC season, qualifying for states again as an individual. If they can built around those two and reload from last year, they could challenge for medals again. The DMR is in play for these guys as well.

Many of the top DMR teams are in play here for the 4x8 as teams like DT West, LaSalle, CB East and Altoona may end up deciding they have a better mix for a run in the shorter relay.

Other teams that I haven't mentioned who could be a factor in one of the two relays include Hershey (maybe this year's Lower Dauphin with Sponaugle and Demko), Cumberland Valley, Lower Dauphin (more likely to be this year's Lower Dauphin), CB West (my current sleeper, if they are even allowed to be in that category) and of course the defending DM state champs in Henderson. 

Who do you think will be in the title mix? (There's no way I didn't forget a big name or two, I just woke up like 15 minutes before working on this)

First TFCAofGP meet is now less than a week away! Anybody have the start times for the divisions? I'm going to be at Lehigh to watch XC club nationals and may be able to swing by to watch a few high school races.