2015: Never too Early?

Alright, alright you dragged me into it. I was going to try to wait but sometimes you have to know when to give in to the crowd. Since our cross country season is still not over, it’s not time for me to talk about track just yet, but I suppose I can give a little thought to the 2015 State Title race ….

(It’s been that kind of year for Casey Comber huh? Once again his impressive achievements end up overshadowed by other big news. Kid can’t catch a break)

I had sort of gotten used to PA sending squads to nationals, considering we sent three teams over the last three years and I had high hopes for Malvern Prep in the early season and North Allegheny in the late going, but unfortunately it wasn’t quite meant to be. Injuries and two really good NE squads left us on the sidelines when all was said and done and, although I know NA would have represented us fantastically at Nationals, there are no teams left competing this cross country season, so I figure I am allowed to consider the possibility of how good our teams could be next year.

(For the record, I think Severna Park or whatever their name is that kept winning races here in PA made it to nationals out of a Southern region which is cool for them, but I wonder how NA would handle them nowadays considering they are way better than they were at PreStates. Would NA have made it to Nats if they were in another region? I’m not really sure if I know the answer to that, but it’s an interesting question at least).

I took a close look at all the teams from states and the non-state teams from the districts that use runhigh for results to analyze who returns what. If class years are wrong on these sites I apologize in advance.

(What I’m going to miss the most about the WPIAL moving their district championships out of Coopers? They are probably ditching runhigh! I love runhigh results, it took me about 2 seconds to figure out what teams should be on my radar for next year thanks to those guys. And seriously I’m not sponsored by them).

To begin, I would be naive to not mention the fact that state champs North Allegheny may lose their top three runners, but they return their next four and have a ton of depth. This team has placed in the top five at states every year since 2006 (the only team to boast this resume over that span) and have placed in the top three every year since 2007 with the exception of 2012 (4th). No matter what they lose they are contenders. And for the record they return a nice pack already. Jacob Stupak killed the final mile of the state championship and ended up in the top 50. Dieble came on strong at season’s end and TJ Robinson was just a freshman. This team was secretly deep this past year and if they can get a breakout star (like Gil in 2008 or Zemet in 2012) they will be very dangerous.

That being said, the favorites will likely come from District One. District One, who has won all the non-North Allegheny state titles since 2004, consistently produces state title threats. In 2015, the likely leader of the pack in D1 is Downingtown West. Recently, news broke that the Hoey brothers (all three) are going to be attending DT West by next cross country season (and possibly sooner), meaning that the 4th place team in the state just picked up one of the best runners in the region, possibly the best freshman in the state, and possibly the best incoming freshman for 2015.

Not that they needed the help of course. DTWest was already returning breakout star Henry Sappey, who delivered consistently at Carlisle, Leagues, Districts and States (leading the team with his 10th place finish). Sappey is the #2 returner from the state championships in Hershey behind newly crowned course record holder Jake Brophy. Ryan Barton, as just a sophomore, placed 36th at the state championship, a huge #2 performance. Ryherd, O’Neill and Bullock each played pivotal roles at various meets during the season. They were one of the best teams through 7 runners all season, had an excellent crop of JV talent and their best runner from districts last year, Drew Alansky, was out all season.

I’m not a fortune teller by any means, but the potential here is mind blowing. In an ideal scenario, you have Jaxson Hoey competing for a state title with Sappey alongside. Alansky comes back and is able to duplicate the jump made by Barton. Josh Hoey continues to improve and makes a solid leap from freshman to sophomore. The pack of 7-10 guys competing just to make it on to varsity propels one of the pack to a huge season. Something along the lines of 2-5-15-24-25 for their scoring five seems possible (and that’s overall, I’m not talking team scoring), which would make West the best PA team since Coatesville (who somehow went 3-6-8-12-18 in a real good year for PA … that’s how you win a national championship).

But let’s slow the hype train down here a bit. There are a few questions for DT West as they struggled last at Districts and barely made it through to states (where they had a fantastic bounce back race). This team appears to be a true XC squad, perfect for states running but possibly making things difficult at Lehigh. Behind Sappey, the team struggled a bit with consistency. They need a big day from the 2 spot to help set the tone for the pack. There is also no guarantee that Alansky will come back and be 100%. Injuries are a part of the game and Jaxson and Alansky among others have already felt that pain. A badly timed injury or fall can ruin anyone’s season.

However, it does seem they will have a fix for many of these issues next year. They add speed with Jaxson and they get a lot older next year as their sophomores become juniors. Think WC Henderson in 2012 kind of development. They have a ton of depth and could probably rest guys at districts if everything goes well (again like Henderson 2012). The comparisons to some of PA’s ever teams will be floating around over the summer and, hopefully for DT West, in December as well.

Perhaps the biggest threat to the beginnings of a DT West dynasty lies within the district. Many may not realize this, but CB West was winning the state championship at the mile marker and right in the hunt at 2 miles. I don’t think anyone was beating NA that day, but a more conservative race from an inexperienced West team could have landed them in a surprise 2nd place. It was the first time CB West qualified for states in my memory, and quite possibly the first time in school history so nerves were bound to be high.

What’s encouraging is, despite their late fade, they were still a hard fought 6th, very close to finishing 5th and they return five guys for next year including their top three of Fortna, Iatarola and McDonald. Iatarola and McDonald had a big days at states, impressive considering they were just sophomores. Fortna has the potential to be a front runner. He seems to be a bit more of a speed runner considering his excellent mile time last spring and his strong race at districts, but with an additional year of experience as a top tier runner, he may grow into a top 10 threat by 2015. The team also should get Brian Mass back to full strength next year, another sophomore making the soph to junior jump that tends to produce serious improvements in the right runner.

They had a loaded JV last year, including McClenethan who I believe was the JV champ. If you take away the Hoeys, CB West and DT West appear very evenly matched on paper (in my opinion anyway). Both teams have solid depth, potential at the front, a piece waiting in the wings, and some very talented sophomores who could make a jump.

However, if you drop 2-3 guys with potential to be top 50 in the state next year including a potential state champion onto one of those two teams, it changes the game a bit.

Coming tomorrow: O’Hara, Cumberland Valley, LaSalle and more! The teams looking to crash the party in 2015.