So for those of you who follow the professional ranks, you have probably been watching Galen Rupp go on an all out assault on the record books. That has been truly fun to watch, but I think that record breaking is probably done at this point. If he manages to break 3:50 in the mile I will be quite impressed and surprised. He has been struggling the last 600m or so the last few races and bringing home the mile in 56ish pace is going to be no joke. Plus I'm not sure there is a rabbit in his arsenal who can get him to 1200m under pace. Taylor Gilland has been fantastic on the rabbiting jobs thus far, unbelievable work in that 2 mile, but I don't see him getting Rupp around the track for this next one.
Which is why I have set my 800m biased eyes on the upcoming 4x800m record attempt in Boston (different Boston track) at the New Balance Grand Prix. The event will be taking place on February 8th at the Reggie Lewis center and may end up on ESPN or one of its networks. Pretty sweet!
We don't know all that much about the event, but we do know the Brooks Beast relay squad is highlighting the race. Led by new addition Nick Symmonds and his quest to break records this year, the Beasts squad is looking to beat the 7:13.94 World Record mark from 2000 (also the US record). It has also been announced that Symmonds will be joined by Mark Wieczorek (I will refer to as Wizzo because it is not only an awesome nickname but also much easier to spell), Cas Loxsom (PSU's own) and Matt Sherer (perhaps the world's best rabbit).
But obviously this group can not do it alone, they need some competition. The relay willing to give it to them: the NJ-NY team with big name Robby Andrews. It is essentially a battle of two of the under appreciated track training groups in the nation, with no sign of the Nike Oregon Project or the Oregon Track Club.
So what is it going to take to get the record? Well first off it's going to take really strong indoor fitness for this early. The time suggests you "only" need to average 1:48.485 to get yourself the record. Seems like an easy enough mark, but consider the top times recently. 1:47 won a pretty competitive US championships last year indoors if my memory serves me correctly and if you run 1:48 and change you have a chance to be in the final indoors at USAs.
Besides the pros usually aren't jacked up and in sick shape for indoors. Think about the guys on this world record relay. It includes David Krummenacker who is something around 3:31-1:43 PR wise. It also includes Haverford D3 star Karl Paryna (this isn't really relevant to my point, it's just a small shout out to the Centennial Conference). Who is going to line with Krummenacker out there? Nobody on the NJ-NY roster has the chops and Symmonds seems like the most logical guy from the beasts. However, Symmonds usually stays away from indoors and has had seriously quiet years on the circuit ever since becoming a professional.
But the news is not all negative here folks. In the grand scheme of things besides the star Krummenacker, the current record holders are far from names that you recognize (Woody and Kenah are the remaining two legs). In addition, indoor marks are falling left and right this year. If guys really want it, what's to stop them from being in great shape? It's not like it's a world championship year outdoors and, fittingly, it is a world championship year indoors!
So let's crunch a little bit of numbers.
Brooks Beast squad:
Nick Symmonds is the stud of the group. He has a PR of 1:42 in the 800m and has fantastic strength. He is coming of the best year of his career that included a silver medal in the 800m at the world championships. He also has a bit of extra motivation now that he has jumped from the swoosh to try and bring the Beasts to the forefront of the elite. However, Nick still needs to prove he can produce big times indoors. Who knows what kind of shape he is in, especially considering we have yet to see him a race. I may be a hater here, but I can't see faster than 1:46 on his split. I expect Nick, the big name, to be on the anchor leg of the squad and, if they want to get the record, he may have to race hard rather than race (especially if the other team's anchor is Robby Andrews, the ultimate sit and kick man). Overall, I think Nick wants to represent the neon well and will run a great leg when all is said and done, but don't expect anything mind-blowing out of him.
My projected split from Nick: 1:46.91
Cas Loxsom is the big sleeper here. Think about it, Loxsom is perhaps the best guy in the nation at the indoor 600m and if oversized tracks counted for anything he would have the American Record. He could run 1:15ish at the mark and smash guys like Sowinski and Soloman. We have seen Cas run down in the 1:46ish range indoors before and at Penn State they were not ashamed of getting guys in fast shape really early. Cas has all the speed and the tools to run a fantastic split on a 4x8. He is no stranger to important relay legs from his days at Penn Sate and is coming off his best individual season at PSU. But he is a first time professional and that adjustment may take some time. Ultimately, however, I'm banking on Cas getting out hard and holding on in a big way. I think he is the key piece to the puzzle here. If he pops one off the record is gone.
My projected split from Cas: 1:47.04
Wizzo has a PR of 1:45 and made a final at the Olympic Trails in '12 wearing his American Eagle type outfit. That's pretty cool. He is a strong runner and his sweet spot is definitely at 800m. That being said he doesn't boast any amazing indoor credentials (PR at around 1:48 in the open) and had a kinda rough opening mile at UW recently. I think he certainly can bounce back and provide a nice spark for this relay, but I'm not sure if he will run anything blazing fast out there. He is a tricky leg to predict here overall, especially because I wouldn't be surprised at all if he is the lead-off leg. Ultimately, however, this is a record attempt and Brooks needs this mark to prove their worth. But somebody has to have an off-day out of the 4 of them right?
My projected split from Mark: 1:49.22
Lastly, you have the super wild card: Matt Sherer. As mentioned Matt Sherer is one of the best pacers in the world: he has a resume that is off the charts and has paced guys like Kaki and David Rudisha. But now he has to race? How is he going to react to something like that? Is he going to run lead off and drag someone around the track? Will he sit and kick? Keep in mind Matt's 800m PR is from 2008! It's a 1:46.11. He also boasts a 45.19 open PR in the 400 which is straight up moving. But that mark is from 2006! There is no way I can possibly accurately predict this guys time. He has the wheels, he has the ability, he is clearly trustworthy in record setting situations. But he hasn't been a racer since who knows when. I'll give it a guess but don't expect it to be great.
My projected split from Matt: 1:50.11
That all adds up to ... 7:13.28! Just a shade under the record. Keep in mind that I predicted the times without adding them up to see what that would get us so it's very interesting even to me to see what that adds up to (hopefully I did my math right).
But those splits are going to be way off if the Brooks guys don't get a race from the NJNY crew.
Who do they have at their disposal? Well I think Andrews is definitely on the relay based on the way they have been advertising, and Rutt is probably the best guy on that team right now so he will be featured in there as well. I'd expect Robby on the anchor just because that is what he has been doing his whole life, kicking down guys at Penn, but Rutt would be powerful on the anchor as well and must be considered. Both these guys are coming off somewhat disappointing shows at the Armory in the mile (Rutt around 4 flat which is actually fairly strong for him, and Robby DNFing after falling way off pace which is, unsurprisingly, bad for him). Keep in mind though Robby runs excellent indoors at 800m and 1000m when he gets his mind to it.
To join those two pieces they will have to pick between the following names:
-Kyle Merber (3:35 once in a life time untouchable PR and some strong relay legs from Columbia)
-Russell Brown (not even sure if he is healthy or training or anything, have to talk to coach, but he is one of the most talented guys on the roster)
-Tevan Everett (indoor world champs qualifier at 800m, 1:46.02 PR, consistent guy on the roster, gotta think he will be on the team?)
-Sadiki White (LSU boy with 1:47 PR)
-Ben Scheetz (D3 record holder indoors at 800m, would be a compelling story line between him and Symmonds)
-Declan Murray (All-American last year and strong 800m man, 1:46.77 PR)
-Brian Gagnon (He has a 3:42.9 down-hill mile PR. Not really relevant to his current 800m ability but that is an awesome stat to have at your disposal)
And like five other guys including PA alumn Nick Crits who shares a birthday with yours truly. Again not relevant but it was a great birthday gift to find that out when I was 16.
So who are they gonna pick from that group? No idea! Pick your favorite two! They have so many guys, all of whom could easily put down a 1:48ish split. Heck they could even field two relays and both could stay relatively competitive if everyone is healthy and in shape.
For the sake of argument and to stop all this rambling I'll say we have something like this:
Everett 1:48.37
Rutt 1:47.21 (3:35.58)
Gagnon 1:50.02 (5:25.60)
Andrews 1:47.88 (7:13.48)
vs.
Wizzo 1:49.22
Loxsom 1:47.04 (3:36.26)
Sherer 1:50.11 (5:26.37)
Symmonds 1:46.91 (7:13.28)
So a close race! I see it playing out with Everett busting lose from Wizzo down the stretch in a grueling first leg, Loxsom goes out hard and assumes the lead, but Rutt dominates the final 200 as a result. Gagnon handles a rusty Sherer, but it's a bit closer than expected with Robby letting Symmonds go to the lead and work to chase the record. In a surprise pick I do not have Robby outkicking Nick and grabbing the win! Cue the shock and awe! I see Nick holding off Robby's late charge and bringing home a big record for Brooks in his first performance for the team.
Is it a tad ambitious to expect Symmonds to play right into Andrews hands in hopes of getting the record? Yeah probably. But hey, it's my fantasy world and I want to see a record!
-train
PA Great 8
*Note I made these before the results this past weekend, didn't have time to put together explanations but figured I'd get this out there for anyone interested*
3000m
1. Ross Wilson, Sr CRNorth
2. Dominic Deluca, Sr Dallas
3. Tony Russell, Sr West Chester Henderson
4. Kevin James, Jr O'Hara
5. Jake Brophy, So CB East
6. Ethan Martin, Sr Fox Chapel
7. Colin Martin, Sr Fox Chapel
8. Chris Kazanjian, Sr Penncrest
Honorable Mention
Reiny Barchet, Sr West Chester Henderson
Chris Cummings, Sr West Chester East
3000m
1. Ross Wilson, Sr CRNorth
2. Dominic Deluca, Sr Dallas
3. Tony Russell, Sr West Chester Henderson
4. Kevin James, Jr O'Hara
5. Jake Brophy, So CB East
6. Ethan Martin, Sr Fox Chapel
7. Colin Martin, Sr Fox Chapel
8. Chris Kazanjian, Sr Penncrest
Honorable Mention
Reiny Barchet, Sr West Chester Henderson
Chris Cummings, Sr West Chester East
Great 8: etrain Style
Mile
1. Tony Russell, Sr West Chester Henderson (4:14.52/4:16.26)
Russell just missed a state title at the mile last year indoors, but consistently ran top times in the state at this event indoors and outdoors. Russell is coming off an XC season during which he defended his individual and team titles at the state championships while also breaking 15 minutes in the 5k. His strength has never really been in question (he ran 9:07 last season for 3200m), but he has needed to prove he has the speed to compete in the mile at the top level. He started out this season with an incredible 3:02 split at Yale, positioning himself well in the speed category. He also managed to have a strong enough kick to hold off a late charge in the open mile where he won in 4:16.26 (despite some on track antics). With Russell's latest mile mark, he has now run 4:16 or faster for the open mile equivalent 4 times in the last two track seasons. If you count his indoor and outdoor relay splits the number goes up to at least 6.
2. Zach Brehm, Jr Carlisle (4:09.27/4:31.71c)
The same arguments about Brehm that I made in the 800m are just as relevant here. Clearly he has a fantastic resume, especially in the mile, but the only question is whether or not he can find enough momentum during a difficult indoor stretch to be prime and fit come states. His kick would be absolutely lethal against this field, but stars like Vince McNally (4:07.55 miler as a Junior) could even win states their senior year. Brehm's progression will be very exciting moving forward as hopefully he will get a fast enough seed time to be in the fast heat at states in whatever he chooses to run.
3. Jaxson Hoey, So Malvern Prep (4:19.24/4:19.24)
Hoey right now is one of the only guys on any of these lists who can say he has run an overall PR already this season indoors. He ran 4:19.24 for the mile at Yale and he also ran 4:26.81 for Burdette, putting him in an elite class of milers already. Factor in that the guy is a sophomore and it is clear we are looking at something special. That being said, sophomores can have a tough time at the state championship level. At the 800m we have seen legends like Mallon and up and coming stars like Brehm win, but the larger distance events tend to take age and experience in addition to talent. Hoey has run considerably faster than the sophomores of year's past already despite the fact that it is only January, so clearly he is someone not afraid to try and rewrite the history books.
4. Kevin James, Jr O'Hara (4:15.73/-)
Last year as a sophomore, James ran some truly gutsy races. He tried the mile/3k double indoors twice in big meets, ran 3:04.4 1200m (beating established 800m guys like Andrew Stone) and finished 5th at states in a brutally windy 3200m. James got a bit of a late start to his indoor track season thanks to his NXN trip so he has only ran a 3k mark, but looking ahead it is very likely he will try his hand at the mile soon. James will have to consider pulling double duties on relays this year, making the mile more enticing than the 3k, even though I believe the 3k is probably his strongest event. James is much like Russell in the fact that he runs his best marks off honest paces and strength without the flashy 800m PRs of many other top guys in the field. He will look to build off his own strong 1200m marks for confidence late in the race.
5. Kyle Francis, Sr Bensalem (4:17.83c/4:26.54)
Kyle Francis easily could be one of the top ranked 800m guys in the state, but in the past year it seems he has worked hard to establish the Mile as his main event. Francis competed at the mile indoors last year and the 1600m outdoors, both in addition to the 4x8. Brad Rivera was the big name on the Bensalem relay coming into the year, but Francis quickly emerged as a star in his own right. Francis can probably run 48-49 on a 4x4 split and has run 1:51 on a 4x8 split. That speed could be lethal in the right race. Often times these miles are tactical and although I don't expect guys like James and Russell to let things get too slow, Francis's kick could get him an upset victory. And he won't be dropped easily by a fast pace, Francis has run 15:46 for 5k.
6. Sam Ritz, Jr Germantown Academy (4:11.73/4:24.03)
Don't sleep on Sam Ritz out of GA! It's been a while since GA had guys at the top of the state indoors (probably Elliot Rhodes and their 4x8 was the last time), but Ritz early in has shown he would be interested in running fast at top meets indoors. His 4:11.73 and 4:24.03 PR and SB marks add up to the fastest total out of anyone short of Tony Russell. The independent schools tend to perform very well indoors, and I would not be surprised at all if Ritz peaked right and finished the season with a surprise.
7. Kevin Moy, Sr West Chester Henderson (4:17.49c/4:26.84)
Think of it this way: Moy ran 4:42.73 last year indoors and dipped all the way down to 4:16.01 by the end of outdoors. Now he is already starting out at 4:26.84! Moy is something of a converted 800m guy who has managed to translate his 1:55 speed into a great kick that earned him a strong finish last outdoors at the state championship (5th) ahead of his teammate Tony Russell. Moy ran a huge leg on the DMR the night before his season best this season in the mile which makes me think he was running on tired legs. I think there is a lot of room for improvement here and Coach Kelly knows how to push the right buttons to make it happen. Moy has a lot more experience being near the top of the big stage than he did last year at this time and he knows on the right day he can hang with anyone in the state.
8. Christian Kardish, Sr Holy Ghost Prep (4:19.99c/4:29.42)
Kardish made the state championships in the 1600m out of the grueling district one each of the last two years. That right there is symbolic of how well this guy can run. Last year indoors, coming off sickness and a health scare, he ran a great time in a slower heat and followed it up with a clutch kick on the DMR (I believe he outkicked UD's own Francis Ferruzzi). Kardish has been racing the best guys in the state for years now and he isn't afraid to stick his nose in there. He recently jumped in a couple of top miles at the Armory, gaining valuable experience in fast, competitive races on banked tracks. In a meet like states where every second counts, this experience will be incredibly valuable.
Honorable Mention
Brendan Billotta, Sr LaSalle
Ross Wilson, Sr Council Rock North
Still more to come! See the 800m below if interested
1. Tony Russell, Sr West Chester Henderson (4:14.52/4:16.26)
Russell just missed a state title at the mile last year indoors, but consistently ran top times in the state at this event indoors and outdoors. Russell is coming off an XC season during which he defended his individual and team titles at the state championships while also breaking 15 minutes in the 5k. His strength has never really been in question (he ran 9:07 last season for 3200m), but he has needed to prove he has the speed to compete in the mile at the top level. He started out this season with an incredible 3:02 split at Yale, positioning himself well in the speed category. He also managed to have a strong enough kick to hold off a late charge in the open mile where he won in 4:16.26 (despite some on track antics). With Russell's latest mile mark, he has now run 4:16 or faster for the open mile equivalent 4 times in the last two track seasons. If you count his indoor and outdoor relay splits the number goes up to at least 6.
2. Zach Brehm, Jr Carlisle (4:09.27/4:31.71c)
The same arguments about Brehm that I made in the 800m are just as relevant here. Clearly he has a fantastic resume, especially in the mile, but the only question is whether or not he can find enough momentum during a difficult indoor stretch to be prime and fit come states. His kick would be absolutely lethal against this field, but stars like Vince McNally (4:07.55 miler as a Junior) could even win states their senior year. Brehm's progression will be very exciting moving forward as hopefully he will get a fast enough seed time to be in the fast heat at states in whatever he chooses to run.
3. Jaxson Hoey, So Malvern Prep (4:19.24/4:19.24)
Hoey right now is one of the only guys on any of these lists who can say he has run an overall PR already this season indoors. He ran 4:19.24 for the mile at Yale and he also ran 4:26.81 for Burdette, putting him in an elite class of milers already. Factor in that the guy is a sophomore and it is clear we are looking at something special. That being said, sophomores can have a tough time at the state championship level. At the 800m we have seen legends like Mallon and up and coming stars like Brehm win, but the larger distance events tend to take age and experience in addition to talent. Hoey has run considerably faster than the sophomores of year's past already despite the fact that it is only January, so clearly he is someone not afraid to try and rewrite the history books.
4. Kevin James, Jr O'Hara (4:15.73/-)
Last year as a sophomore, James ran some truly gutsy races. He tried the mile/3k double indoors twice in big meets, ran 3:04.4 1200m (beating established 800m guys like Andrew Stone) and finished 5th at states in a brutally windy 3200m. James got a bit of a late start to his indoor track season thanks to his NXN trip so he has only ran a 3k mark, but looking ahead it is very likely he will try his hand at the mile soon. James will have to consider pulling double duties on relays this year, making the mile more enticing than the 3k, even though I believe the 3k is probably his strongest event. James is much like Russell in the fact that he runs his best marks off honest paces and strength without the flashy 800m PRs of many other top guys in the field. He will look to build off his own strong 1200m marks for confidence late in the race.
5. Kyle Francis, Sr Bensalem (4:17.83c/4:26.54)
Kyle Francis easily could be one of the top ranked 800m guys in the state, but in the past year it seems he has worked hard to establish the Mile as his main event. Francis competed at the mile indoors last year and the 1600m outdoors, both in addition to the 4x8. Brad Rivera was the big name on the Bensalem relay coming into the year, but Francis quickly emerged as a star in his own right. Francis can probably run 48-49 on a 4x4 split and has run 1:51 on a 4x8 split. That speed could be lethal in the right race. Often times these miles are tactical and although I don't expect guys like James and Russell to let things get too slow, Francis's kick could get him an upset victory. And he won't be dropped easily by a fast pace, Francis has run 15:46 for 5k.
6. Sam Ritz, Jr Germantown Academy (4:11.73/4:24.03)
Don't sleep on Sam Ritz out of GA! It's been a while since GA had guys at the top of the state indoors (probably Elliot Rhodes and their 4x8 was the last time), but Ritz early in has shown he would be interested in running fast at top meets indoors. His 4:11.73 and 4:24.03 PR and SB marks add up to the fastest total out of anyone short of Tony Russell. The independent schools tend to perform very well indoors, and I would not be surprised at all if Ritz peaked right and finished the season with a surprise.
7. Kevin Moy, Sr West Chester Henderson (4:17.49c/4:26.84)
Think of it this way: Moy ran 4:42.73 last year indoors and dipped all the way down to 4:16.01 by the end of outdoors. Now he is already starting out at 4:26.84! Moy is something of a converted 800m guy who has managed to translate his 1:55 speed into a great kick that earned him a strong finish last outdoors at the state championship (5th) ahead of his teammate Tony Russell. Moy ran a huge leg on the DMR the night before his season best this season in the mile which makes me think he was running on tired legs. I think there is a lot of room for improvement here and Coach Kelly knows how to push the right buttons to make it happen. Moy has a lot more experience being near the top of the big stage than he did last year at this time and he knows on the right day he can hang with anyone in the state.
8. Christian Kardish, Sr Holy Ghost Prep (4:19.99c/4:29.42)
Kardish made the state championships in the 1600m out of the grueling district one each of the last two years. That right there is symbolic of how well this guy can run. Last year indoors, coming off sickness and a health scare, he ran a great time in a slower heat and followed it up with a clutch kick on the DMR (I believe he outkicked UD's own Francis Ferruzzi). Kardish has been racing the best guys in the state for years now and he isn't afraid to stick his nose in there. He recently jumped in a couple of top miles at the Armory, gaining valuable experience in fast, competitive races on banked tracks. In a meet like states where every second counts, this experience will be incredibly valuable.
Honorable Mention
Brendan Billotta, Sr LaSalle
Ross Wilson, Sr Council Rock North
Still more to come! See the 800m below if interested
PA's Great 8: etrain Style
So as you probably now, Penntrack does a nice post about the top 8 times in each event so far this season, so I thought it might be cool to do my own version of it that is purely opinion based rather than purely time based. For the sake of simplicity, I assumed some people who did not yet have qualifying times would get them. In addition, I am comparing all runners at each event as if they were completely fresh. So let's do some analysis.
800m
1. Jeff Wiseman, Sr Council Rock South (1:52.72/1:57.09)
Wiseman is the top returner from last year's indoor state championship and that in itself would be enough to get a lot of people on this list. But this is far from the only reason to slot Wiseman at #1. Last spring Jeff established himself as one of the best runners in the state at mid-distance, running a 1:52.72 at Henderson and a 48.64 in the 400m. Few other guys in this field boast that kind of raw speed. He has continued that trend indoors running a flat track 1:57.09 and 50.73. As an added bonus, in Wiseman's career he has won a slew of incredibly close races, meaning he brings that extra umph necessary to win a state title.
2. Joe Logue, Sr Pennridge (1:51.59/1:58.17)
Logue won a state championship two years back when he anchored his Pennridge squad to an upset victory in the 4x8 and also grabbed state gold in the 4x4 last year indoors. Now he is looking to add an individual gold to his mantle. Logue has built quite an impressive resume for himself over the past few seasons. He notched a 1:51 PR at Henderson, added some quick 4x4 splits and even went up in distance and excelled, running an impressive 3:57.49 for 1500m which earned him a Penn Relays spot. He is a fantastic combination of strength and speed and has experience winning titles. He is no stranger to the big stage and will be ready to compete come states.
3. Zach Brehm, Jr Carlisle (1:54.40/-)
Brehm is easily the hardest guy to place on this list. He is coming off an outdoor season where he ran under 9:20, sub 4:10 in the mile and 1:54 in the 800m to claim the state title. He followed that up with an impressive XC season that included a 15:28 and a top 10 finish at states. Wow! The problem is it will be hard for the guys outside of District One to get in top training and top competition on a weekly basis, which may put Brehm at a disadvantage this indoor season. Carlisle hasn't had a medalist in the past 5 years and Brehm's indoor PR currently sits 2:14.31 (not including any fast splits). There have been top District 3 talents like Rotz and Kunzweiler who haven't been able to grab the title, but Brehm may be able to break the streak and bring the title back to the middle of the state.
4. Will Cather, Sr State College (1:55.53/1:56.9h)
Cather's biggest advantage coming into this race: he has a hometown crowd to support him. With the meet being held at Penn State, Cather will gain extra support from a supportive crowd. But it's not just the crowd that will help Cather, he has also established himself as one of the best up and coming talents on the distance scene. He has already qualified for states this season in the 400 and the 800 (with 1:56.9h that puts him atop the list), but he also has the potential to qualify in the Mile and the 3k (as he did last season). This would be a nearly unprecedented feat. Cather's range is clearly superb and he is clearly a gutsy runner: he fought his way to 25th at XC states, just edging out the last medal spot, and he also ran a strong race out of the slow heats at states last year to grab an indoor medal.
5. Jon Lewis, Jr Cheltenham (1:54.93/1:57.19)
Lewis started off his indoor season by coming within a tenth of a second of our #1 on this list, Jeff Wiseman. He has been on the quiet side since, but he did drop a 49.1 at the Armory in the 400m and ran some power legs on 4x4 and 4x2 relays for the state leaders: Cheltenham. A lot of Lewis's achievements over the years (including a 48.79 PR at 400m) indicate that he may opt for the sprints over the distance, but Lewis has made it clear his true love is the 800m. He ran a huge leg on the Cheltenham 4x8 last year and raced long into the summer to grab a 1:54.93 open 8 PR. Lewis may lack a little experience at the top of the 800m scene in PA, but he is learning quickly and appears to be on the verge of a break out season. He is a sleeper pick for the title come season's end.
6. Billy Caldwell, Sr Downingtown East (1:55.12/2:00.57)
Caldwell has been one to watch ever since he began to emerge on the team's relays last year. He ran a pair of brilliant legs at Districts to get his team to states and once he got there, his third leg brought DTEast on to the medal stand. Caldwell followed it up by finishing 7th outdoors in the 800m for his first individual state medal. He was a sleeper pick last year, but this year he is on everyone's radar and so to his DTEast relay squad. Caldwell has been working hard on improving his mile strength and is among the state leaders in this category as well, so we may not get to see him at this event come states, but if we do, we will see a gutsy runner with a lot of talent and heart.
7. Alek Sauer, Jr Pennsbury (1:56.85/1:57.17)
Sauer opened up his season with a blazing 1:57.17 800m up at the Armory to suddenly catapult himself into the state title conversation. As just a sophomore, Sauer developed into a huge contributor to the Pennsbury relays, running some huge 4x8 legs for the squad as they worked their way to bronze in the 4x8. Although Sauer wasn't the big name on the relay with state medalists like Sam Webb and Connor Harriman on the team, Sauer ended the season as the best 800m man out of them all. Now, as he makes the signature sophomore to junior jump, he is looking to build off a sub 16 XC season and head towards an upset in the 800m.
8. Jim Belfatto, Sr O'Hara (1:55.19/1:59.96)
Belfatto has done it all over his career. He has run on some fantastic XC teams, some great relays indoors, and was a key leg on O'Hara's Penn Relays squad from a year ago. But he is still hungry for more. Belfatto, who has range from in the low 9:20s for 3200m all the way down to 1:55 in the open 800m. He ran a 1:54 split for his DMR at Nationals a year ago as well. Belfatto has always been willing to sacrifice individual glory in pursuit of team achievements, so like our previous couple runners, we may not get to see him compete for a state title this season, but he and the O'Hara boys are always dangerous on the big stage.
Honorable Mention
Dylan Wilhoite, Sr Penn Hills
Frank Brophy, Sr CB East
More to Come!
800m
1. Jeff Wiseman, Sr Council Rock South (1:52.72/1:57.09)
Wiseman is the top returner from last year's indoor state championship and that in itself would be enough to get a lot of people on this list. But this is far from the only reason to slot Wiseman at #1. Last spring Jeff established himself as one of the best runners in the state at mid-distance, running a 1:52.72 at Henderson and a 48.64 in the 400m. Few other guys in this field boast that kind of raw speed. He has continued that trend indoors running a flat track 1:57.09 and 50.73. As an added bonus, in Wiseman's career he has won a slew of incredibly close races, meaning he brings that extra umph necessary to win a state title.
2. Joe Logue, Sr Pennridge (1:51.59/1:58.17)
Logue won a state championship two years back when he anchored his Pennridge squad to an upset victory in the 4x8 and also grabbed state gold in the 4x4 last year indoors. Now he is looking to add an individual gold to his mantle. Logue has built quite an impressive resume for himself over the past few seasons. He notched a 1:51 PR at Henderson, added some quick 4x4 splits and even went up in distance and excelled, running an impressive 3:57.49 for 1500m which earned him a Penn Relays spot. He is a fantastic combination of strength and speed and has experience winning titles. He is no stranger to the big stage and will be ready to compete come states.
3. Zach Brehm, Jr Carlisle (1:54.40/-)
Brehm is easily the hardest guy to place on this list. He is coming off an outdoor season where he ran under 9:20, sub 4:10 in the mile and 1:54 in the 800m to claim the state title. He followed that up with an impressive XC season that included a 15:28 and a top 10 finish at states. Wow! The problem is it will be hard for the guys outside of District One to get in top training and top competition on a weekly basis, which may put Brehm at a disadvantage this indoor season. Carlisle hasn't had a medalist in the past 5 years and Brehm's indoor PR currently sits 2:14.31 (not including any fast splits). There have been top District 3 talents like Rotz and Kunzweiler who haven't been able to grab the title, but Brehm may be able to break the streak and bring the title back to the middle of the state.
4. Will Cather, Sr State College (1:55.53/1:56.9h)
Cather's biggest advantage coming into this race: he has a hometown crowd to support him. With the meet being held at Penn State, Cather will gain extra support from a supportive crowd. But it's not just the crowd that will help Cather, he has also established himself as one of the best up and coming talents on the distance scene. He has already qualified for states this season in the 400 and the 800 (with 1:56.9h that puts him atop the list), but he also has the potential to qualify in the Mile and the 3k (as he did last season). This would be a nearly unprecedented feat. Cather's range is clearly superb and he is clearly a gutsy runner: he fought his way to 25th at XC states, just edging out the last medal spot, and he also ran a strong race out of the slow heats at states last year to grab an indoor medal.
5. Jon Lewis, Jr Cheltenham (1:54.93/1:57.19)
Lewis started off his indoor season by coming within a tenth of a second of our #1 on this list, Jeff Wiseman. He has been on the quiet side since, but he did drop a 49.1 at the Armory in the 400m and ran some power legs on 4x4 and 4x2 relays for the state leaders: Cheltenham. A lot of Lewis's achievements over the years (including a 48.79 PR at 400m) indicate that he may opt for the sprints over the distance, but Lewis has made it clear his true love is the 800m. He ran a huge leg on the Cheltenham 4x8 last year and raced long into the summer to grab a 1:54.93 open 8 PR. Lewis may lack a little experience at the top of the 800m scene in PA, but he is learning quickly and appears to be on the verge of a break out season. He is a sleeper pick for the title come season's end.
6. Billy Caldwell, Sr Downingtown East (1:55.12/2:00.57)
Caldwell has been one to watch ever since he began to emerge on the team's relays last year. He ran a pair of brilliant legs at Districts to get his team to states and once he got there, his third leg brought DTEast on to the medal stand. Caldwell followed it up by finishing 7th outdoors in the 800m for his first individual state medal. He was a sleeper pick last year, but this year he is on everyone's radar and so to his DTEast relay squad. Caldwell has been working hard on improving his mile strength and is among the state leaders in this category as well, so we may not get to see him at this event come states, but if we do, we will see a gutsy runner with a lot of talent and heart.
7. Alek Sauer, Jr Pennsbury (1:56.85/1:57.17)
Sauer opened up his season with a blazing 1:57.17 800m up at the Armory to suddenly catapult himself into the state title conversation. As just a sophomore, Sauer developed into a huge contributor to the Pennsbury relays, running some huge 4x8 legs for the squad as they worked their way to bronze in the 4x8. Although Sauer wasn't the big name on the relay with state medalists like Sam Webb and Connor Harriman on the team, Sauer ended the season as the best 800m man out of them all. Now, as he makes the signature sophomore to junior jump, he is looking to build off a sub 16 XC season and head towards an upset in the 800m.
8. Jim Belfatto, Sr O'Hara (1:55.19/1:59.96)
Belfatto has done it all over his career. He has run on some fantastic XC teams, some great relays indoors, and was a key leg on O'Hara's Penn Relays squad from a year ago. But he is still hungry for more. Belfatto, who has range from in the low 9:20s for 3200m all the way down to 1:55 in the open 800m. He ran a 1:54 split for his DMR at Nationals a year ago as well. Belfatto has always been willing to sacrifice individual glory in pursuit of team achievements, so like our previous couple runners, we may not get to see him compete for a state title this season, but he and the O'Hara boys are always dangerous on the big stage.
Honorable Mention
Dylan Wilhoite, Sr Penn Hills
Frank Brophy, Sr CB East
More to Come!
Strike One
The prediction thing is hard. I had Rupp just missing the record and he smashed the darn thing closing in around 2:01 and 4:03. He ran a 29 lap from like 800m to 600m to go which was crazy but then he really kinda started to tie up and couldn't quite hold that pace, but he wasn't far from sub 13. He is once again in absurdly fast shape indoors which is stunning to me because it is so far away from any major meets! It's January for goodness sake. So it will be interesting to watch his continued development.
It looked like a pretty grueling finish for Rupp who managed to make it to the line and out last old rival Sam Chelenga (who had a phenomenal day by the way) so now with not too much time to recover, the question becomes can he come back and do it again at 2 miles? I'd have to guess no but I've been wrong once ...
As for Cain I was a bit off on her time (and Rowbury didn't even race) but it was really cool to see a World Junior Record. If they had hyped up the race as a bid for that mark (as it most likely should have been hyped) then the race would have been much more exciting. The flotrack guys tend to live in a fantasy world sometimes with these record attempts, gotta just analyze the race as it progresses. Sure the pacing wasn't perfect but Cain is just not an all-time kind of performer yet. She is still just 17 years old and not the best runner in the US for women. She is a fantastic story with a lot of potential whose best even is in the 15-3k range I'd imagine. She made a world champ final and probably could run 4:02 outdoors. Those marks are great but not a resume that suggests anything like 2:34.
All the same I look forward to her chasing more world junior marks going forward! It's really cool to have an american distance runner making any sort of waves on world records. Even if they are just world junior records.
It looked like a pretty grueling finish for Rupp who managed to make it to the line and out last old rival Sam Chelenga (who had a phenomenal day by the way) so now with not too much time to recover, the question becomes can he come back and do it again at 2 miles? I'd have to guess no but I've been wrong once ...
As for Cain I was a bit off on her time (and Rowbury didn't even race) but it was really cool to see a World Junior Record. If they had hyped up the race as a bid for that mark (as it most likely should have been hyped) then the race would have been much more exciting. The flotrack guys tend to live in a fantasy world sometimes with these record attempts, gotta just analyze the race as it progresses. Sure the pacing wasn't perfect but Cain is just not an all-time kind of performer yet. She is still just 17 years old and not the best runner in the US for women. She is a fantastic story with a lot of potential whose best even is in the 15-3k range I'd imagine. She made a world champ final and probably could run 4:02 outdoors. Those marks are great but not a resume that suggests anything like 2:34.
All the same I look forward to her chasing more world junior marks going forward! It's really cool to have an american distance runner making any sort of waves on world records. Even if they are just world junior records.
Predictions for Tomorrow Night
For those of you who don't know, Mary Cain and Galen Rupp are chasing some records in the not so distant future. Tomorrow night on Flotrack Pro Cain goes for a slew of different 1k records and Rupp goes for the American record in the 5000m.
I was foolish enough to get sucked into the hype of Flotrack Pro and purchased the sucker for myself so I will be able to watch the race. So if you really want to watch come to Muhlenberg tomorrow night around race time. Unless I don't really know you then that may be awkward.
Cain is joined by Rowbury and Moser in this race, both of whom I seriously doubt are willing to just let Cain walk all over them. I honestly think Cain isn't winning this race out of the American crew, which may be foolish, but I'm not sure that she can beat either of these girls at this distance. My money would be on Rowbury who just jumped on the Salazar plan and is a complete wild card here. I don't think the American Record is falling here. Sorry folks.
But Cain can go after plenty of records in this race, she isn't just limited to the American Record (although that is what the meet directors are hyping her up for).
Here is a list of records she is eligible and the high school record just for fun (she is a pro now so she can officially chase any more USHS records, despite the fact that she is still a senior in HS!)
Note that all of these are indoor track records
HS: 2:43.40
American Junior: 2:40.1
World Junior: 2:40.1 (go USA!)
I think Cain is taking all three of these down (even though only two will count) which is pretty amazing.
Interesting side note: Tirunesh Dibaba owns the world junior indoor record at 3000m with a time of 8:33 which is roughly 2:50 pace per 1k .... so maybe the world junior record is a little soft at 1k?
I'm predicting Rowbury at like 2:36ish maybe and Cain 2:37 right near by, Moser falling of the pace a bit. Hard to say with any sort of certainity on times though because this is far from my area of expertise. But hey I'll give it a shot!
As for Galen, I think he is going to miss the record as well, but just barely. He and his buddy Bernie have been trading indoor american records for the last couple years in a truly dramatic fashion. I love it, even though I'm not a big supporter of either guy.
But then Lopez Lomong said screw you guys and came flying in to steal the record from both of them! Easy to forget that he was the guy who ended up grabbing the record among all the trading between Bernie and Galen.
Bernie originally set the record in that race at Millrose with Ches and Lawi where he was pushed hard the whole way by Lalang. I'm not sure who is going to be out there dragging Galen around the track: Cam Levins is said to be in the race too, but he hasn't looked like a sub 13:20 kinda guy in over a year now.
When Lopez did it he was far from alone either: He had both Evan Jager and my boy Chris Derrick to help him with pacing. Lopez did it with a big time kick at the end.
Look does Galen have skills? Yeah any guy who can run 3:50.92 up to 26:48 is a straight thug on the track.
I'm sorry I have to pause to laugh briefly at the fact that I just said Galen Rupp and straight thug in the same sentence. Back on point.
Galen clearly is taking indoors seriously and after grabbing the 3k record in 7:30.16 indoors last year, I feel that Galen and Alberto are not afraid to put a big emphasis on indoors. But I'm nervous that a guy trying to run 3:49 in the mile in just a few weeks is going to struggle to run 13:07.00. He has the talent, but will the pieces fall in to place for him to break a record that has slowly been becoming more and more impressive? I don't think so.
I'm saying 13:08ish for Galen with Cam not really in the picture.
But what's great about this is I'm wrong a lot so I think anybody who can should find a buddy with Flotrack pro and jump on to watch this because it is going to be exciting. Alberto Salazar is a great coach and he will get his guys ready to chase records if he says they are chasing records.
So as Bane would say,
Let the games begin!
I was foolish enough to get sucked into the hype of Flotrack Pro and purchased the sucker for myself so I will be able to watch the race. So if you really want to watch come to Muhlenberg tomorrow night around race time. Unless I don't really know you then that may be awkward.
Cain is joined by Rowbury and Moser in this race, both of whom I seriously doubt are willing to just let Cain walk all over them. I honestly think Cain isn't winning this race out of the American crew, which may be foolish, but I'm not sure that she can beat either of these girls at this distance. My money would be on Rowbury who just jumped on the Salazar plan and is a complete wild card here. I don't think the American Record is falling here. Sorry folks.
But Cain can go after plenty of records in this race, she isn't just limited to the American Record (although that is what the meet directors are hyping her up for).
Here is a list of records she is eligible and the high school record just for fun (she is a pro now so she can officially chase any more USHS records, despite the fact that she is still a senior in HS!)
Note that all of these are indoor track records
HS: 2:43.40
American Junior: 2:40.1
World Junior: 2:40.1 (go USA!)
I think Cain is taking all three of these down (even though only two will count) which is pretty amazing.
Interesting side note: Tirunesh Dibaba owns the world junior indoor record at 3000m with a time of 8:33 which is roughly 2:50 pace per 1k .... so maybe the world junior record is a little soft at 1k?
I'm predicting Rowbury at like 2:36ish maybe and Cain 2:37 right near by, Moser falling of the pace a bit. Hard to say with any sort of certainity on times though because this is far from my area of expertise. But hey I'll give it a shot!
As for Galen, I think he is going to miss the record as well, but just barely. He and his buddy Bernie have been trading indoor american records for the last couple years in a truly dramatic fashion. I love it, even though I'm not a big supporter of either guy.
But then Lopez Lomong said screw you guys and came flying in to steal the record from both of them! Easy to forget that he was the guy who ended up grabbing the record among all the trading between Bernie and Galen.
Bernie originally set the record in that race at Millrose with Ches and Lawi where he was pushed hard the whole way by Lalang. I'm not sure who is going to be out there dragging Galen around the track: Cam Levins is said to be in the race too, but he hasn't looked like a sub 13:20 kinda guy in over a year now.
When Lopez did it he was far from alone either: He had both Evan Jager and my boy Chris Derrick to help him with pacing. Lopez did it with a big time kick at the end.
Look does Galen have skills? Yeah any guy who can run 3:50.92 up to 26:48 is a straight thug on the track.
I'm sorry I have to pause to laugh briefly at the fact that I just said Galen Rupp and straight thug in the same sentence. Back on point.
Galen clearly is taking indoors seriously and after grabbing the 3k record in 7:30.16 indoors last year, I feel that Galen and Alberto are not afraid to put a big emphasis on indoors. But I'm nervous that a guy trying to run 3:49 in the mile in just a few weeks is going to struggle to run 13:07.00. He has the talent, but will the pieces fall in to place for him to break a record that has slowly been becoming more and more impressive? I don't think so.
I'm saying 13:08ish for Galen with Cam not really in the picture.
But what's great about this is I'm wrong a lot so I think anybody who can should find a buddy with Flotrack pro and jump on to watch this because it is going to be exciting. Alberto Salazar is a great coach and he will get his guys ready to chase records if he says they are chasing records.
So as Bane would say,
Let the games begin!
Centennial Conference Rankings 1/13
| Hopkins | 218 |
| Haverford | 137 |
| Ursinus | 84 |
| Dickinson | 82 |
| F&M | 76 |
| McDaniel | 29 |
| Muhlenberg | 29 |
| Gettysburg | 26 |
| Swarthmore | 21 |
| 60m | Team | Points | |
| Pannell | 6.96 | Dickinson | 10 |
| McWilliams** | 7.21* | McDaniel | 8 |
| Naticchia | 7.25 | Hopkins | 6 |
| Friend | 7.28 | F&M | 5 |
| Amin** | 7.11* | F&M | 4 |
| Signore | 7.31 | Hopkins | 3 |
| Jebb | 7.25* | Hopkins | 2 |
| Belin | 7.35 | Gettysburg | 1 |
| Grant | 7.47 | Hopkins | - |
| Ainsley | 7.37 | Haverford | - |
| 200m | |||
| Pannell | 23.31* | Dickinson | 10 |
| Jones** | 23.32* | Ursinus | 8 |
| Naticchia | 23.06* | Hopkins | 6 |
| McCormick | 23.58 | Ursinus | 5 |
| Callon** | 23.33* | Haverford | 4 |
| Grant | 23.72 | Hopkins | 3 |
| Amin** | 23.36 | F&M | 2 |
| Ainsley | ** | Haverford | 1 |
| Friend | 24.04* | F&M | - |
| Rozanski** | 23.52 | Hopkins | - |
| 400m | |||
| Jones** | 50.91* | Ursinus | 10 |
| Signore | 52.42% | Hopkins | 8 |
| Rozanski** | 51.3 | Hopkins | 6 |
| Keyser | 52.64 | Ursinus | 5 |
| Poore | 52.82% | Hopkins | 4 |
| Yellets | 53.24 | Haverford | 3 |
| Onimus** | 52.07* | Muhlenberg | 2 |
| Schulz** | 51.60* | Ursinus | 1 |
| Gabriel | 53.82 | Haverford | - |
| Callon** | 51.91* | Haverford | - |
| 800m | |||
| Carey | 1:55.87* | Hopkins | 10 |
| L. Olenginski** | 1:57.49* | F&M | 8 |
| Jackson** | 1:56.11* | Dickinson | 6 |
| Keny | 1:58.53. | Haverford | 5 |
| Mackin | 1:58.52. | Ursinus | 4 |
| Marquardt** | 1:56.98* | Haverford | 3 |
| G. Olenginski** | 1:57.41* | F&M | 2 |
| Hyjek** | 1:59.44* | Dickinson | 1 |
| Rausch** | 1:58.02* | Gettysburg | - |
| White | 2:03.95% | Swarthmore | - |
| Mile | |||
| Stadler** | 4:12.65* | Haverford | 10 |
| Carey | 4:20.78% | Hopkins | 8 |
| Marquardt** | 4:13.18* | Haverford | 6 |
| Oppenheimer | 4:25.44. | Swarthmore | 5 |
| Steinbock** | 4:27.72* | Dickinson | 4 |
| Hyjek** | 4:23.32* | Dickinson | 3 |
| Saliani | 4:21.57* | Hopkins | 2 |
| White | 4:29.30. | Dickinson | 1 |
| Sansevere** | 4:22.29* | Dickinson | - |
| Butler | 4:26.32* | Hopkins | - |
| 3000m | |||
| Stadler** | 8.31.38* | Haverford | 10 |
| Steinbock** | 8:43.18* | Dickinson | 8 |
| Robinson** | 8:42.40* | Hopkins | 6 |
| Oppenheimer | 8:54.62% | Swarthmore | 5 |
| Clark** | 8:42.09* | Dickinson | 4 |
| Mynatt** | 8:46.22* | Dickinson | 3 |
| Saliani | 9:00.14% | Hopkins | 2 |
| Bregman** | 8:49.80* | Haverford | 1 |
| Marquardt** | 8:36.85* | Haverford | - |
| Pavarini | 8:55.12. | Hopkins | - |
| 5000m | |||
| Stadler** | 14:23.36* | Haverford | 10 |
| Robinson** | 14:57.20* | Hopkins | 8 |
| Bregman** | 14:43.17* | Haverford | 6 |
| Cerruzzi | 15:14.87% | Hopkins | 5 |
| Roza | 15:08.63. | Haverford | 4 |
| Christian** | 15:17.30* | Haverford | 3 |
| Stecklair | 15:37.18% | Hopkins | 2 |
| Ochstein | 14:56.70* | Hopkins | 1 |
| Clark** | 15:12.82* | Dickinson | - |
| Mynatt** | 15:08.22* | Dickinson | - |
| 60mH | |||
| Michaelis** | 8.52* | F&M | 10 |
| Ainsley | 8.58 | Haverford | 8 |
| Jebb | 8.83 | Hopkins | 6 |
| Mu** | 8.63* | Dickinson | 5 |
| Keyser | 8.96 | Ursinus | 4 |
| Spadaro | 9.05 | Hopkins | 3 |
| Avino** | 8.96* | Gettysburg | 2 |
| Knight** | 9.20* | Muhlenberg | 1 |
| Stelmach** | 9.07* | Hopkins | - |
| Heo | 9.19 | Swarthmore | - |
| 4x200m | |||
| F&M | F&M | 10 | |
| Hopkins | Hopkins | 8 | |
| Ursinus | Ursinus | 6 | |
| Haverford | Haverford | 5 | |
| Dickinson | Dickinson | 4 | |
| Muhlenberg | Muhlenberg | 3 | |
| Gettysburg | Gettysburg | 2 | |
| Swarthmore | Swarthmore | 1 | |
| McDaniel | McDaniel | - | |
| 4x400m | |||
| Ursinus | Ursinus | 10 | |
| Hopkins | Hopkins | 8 | |
| Muhlenberg | Muhlenberg | 6 | |
| Haverford | Haverford | 5 | |
| Dickinson | Dickinson | 4 | |
| F&M | F&M | 3 | |
| Gettysburg | Gettysburg | 2 | |
| Swarthmore | Swarthmore | 1 | |
| McDaniel | McDaniel | - | |
| 4x800m | |||
| F&M | F&M | 10 | |
| Hopkins | Hopkins | 8 | |
| Dickinson | Dickinson | 6 | |
| Haverford | Haverford | 5 | |
| Swarthmore | Swarthmore | 4 | |
| Muhlenberg | Muhlenberg | 3 | |
| Gettysburg | Gettysburg | 2 | |
| Ursinus | Ursinus | 1 | |
| McDaniel | McDaniel | - | |
| DMR | |||
| Haverford | Haverford | 10 | |
| Dickinson | Dickinson | 8 | |
| Hopkins | Hopkins | 6 | |
| Swarthmore | Swarthmore | 5 | |
| Muhlenberg | Muhlenberg | 4 | |
| Gettysburg | Gettysburg | 3 | |
| F&M | F&M | 2 | |
| Ursinus | Ursinus | 1 | |
| McDaniel | McDaniel | - | |
| HJ | |||
| Walsh | 6'4.25 | Hopkins | 10 |
| Jones** | 6'4.75* | Ursinus | 8 |
| Ainsley | 6'4.75* | Haverford | 6 |
| Birden** | 6'2.75* | McDaniel | 5 |
| Graves** | ** | Haverford | 4 |
| Shea** | 6'0.75"* | Ursinus | 3 |
| Uzamere | 5'10.75" | F&M | 2 |
| Tauber** | 6'0.75" | Muhlenberg | 1 |
| Thompson | 5'10" | Gettysburg | - |
| Avino** | 5'11.25"* | Gettysburg | - |
| PV | |||
| Bartnett | 15'1" | Hopkins | 10 |
| Iannacone | 12'5.5" | Haverford | 8 |
| Vozzo** | 13'11.25* | Hopkins | 6 |
| Pressman | 12'5.5" | F&M | 5 |
| Spadaro | 12'5.5"* | Hopkins | 4 |
| Civetta | 11'11.75"* | Hopkins | 3 |
| Miller-Sobel | 11'11.75"* | Muhlenberg | 2 |
| Mehta | 11'5.75"* | Hopkins | 1 |
| Sato | 11'6"* | Dickinson | - |
| Rollow | 11'11.75" | Dickinson | - |
| LJ | |||
| Kaiser | 21'1.25" | Gettysburg | 10 |
| Naticchia | 21'0.75" | Hopkins | 8 |
| Jebb | 20'5" | Hopkins | 6 |
| Spadaro | 21'0.75" | Hopkins | 5 |
| Graves** | ** | Haverford | 4 |
| Ainsley | 20'0.5" | Haverford | 3 |
| Pannell | 19'10.75" | Dickinson | 2 |
| Evans | 19'4.25" | Hopkins | 1 |
| Thompson | 19'5.5" | Gettysburg | - |
| Andrews | 21'9" | Gettysburg | - |
| TJ | |||
| Jebb | 44'4" | Hopkins | 10 |
| Fromell | 43'5.75" | F&M | 8 |
| Evans | 43'3.25" | Hopkins | 6 |
| Spadaro | 41'10"* | Hopkins | 5 |
| Kaiser | 40'0.5" | Gettysburg | 4 |
| Graves** | ** | Haverford | 3 |
| Bennett** | 42'11.75"* | Haverford | 2 |
| Pannell | 42'10.75"* | Dickinson | 1 |
| Boucher | 39'0.5" | Hopkins | - |
| Nienius** | 38'11.5" | Ursinus | - |
| SP | |||
| Wilson | 45'8" | Ursinus | 10 |
| Clancy | 40'2.25" | Ursinus | 8 |
| Dunn | 42'4.25" | McDaniel | 6 |
| Acosta** | 43'7.5"* | F&M | 5 |
| Wetherhold** | 43'0.5"* | McDaniel | 4 |
| Cano** | 40'1.25"* | Muhlenberg | 3 |
| Weiner** | 42'2.5"* | McDaniel | 2 |
| Hamden** | 43'0.5" | Muhlenberg | 1 |
| McCarron | 39'9.75" | F&M | - |
| Vecchio | 38'7" | Dickinson | - |
| Hepthalon | |||
| Spadaro | Hopkins | 10 | |
| Ainsley | Haverford | 8 | |
| Jebb | Hopkins | 6 | |
| Walsh | Hopkins | 5 | |
| Smith | McDaniel | 4 | |
| Reutter | Muhlenberg | 3 | |
| Rollow | Dickinson | 2 | |
| Conley | Hopkins | 1 | |
| Stelmach | Hopkins | - | |
| Tyson | Hopkins | - |
| Hopkins | 218 |
| Haverford | 137 |
| Ursinus | 84 |
| Dickinson | 82 |
| F&M | 76 |
| McDaniel | 29 |
| Muhlenberg | 29 |
| Gettysburg | 26 |
| Swarthmore | 21 |
Nick Symmonds
Coming off what most would argue is the best season of his professional career, Nick Symmonds has decided not to resign with Nike and the Oregon Track Club and instead has opted to sign with Brooks and the Brooks beast training group. Symmonds is giving up living in Oregon and training with Coach Rowland and other top 800m man Tyler Mulder and 2x NCAA champ and newcomer Elijah Greer as potential training partners. Rowland and Symmonds have worked together for the last 5 years culminating in the past two seasons with fantastic results: 1:42.95 and a silver medal at the world championships.
But clearly the decision was not track based for Symmonds. Nike has the top equipment and facilities as well as the best connections and coaches. Ditching them is sure to make things a little more difficult on the track. However, Symmonds has always been a man interested in marketing himself. He is looking for opportunities to grow is brand, to make a living and to have a strong relationship with his sponsors.
In my opinion, Symmonds is one of the greatest figures in our sport right now. He keeps the sport interesting when so many other runners in the US are just boring and bland. I fully support Nick's decision. He has talked about his decision in depth already on multiple sites, and I figure going forward much will come out as he is allowed to talk about the details of the contract. What Nick has been able to say about the contract negotiations is that Nike contracts had a lot of reductions that would cause Nick to lose money if he missed certain goals. They are essentially the opposite of bonuses for good performance. Nike also crippled his ability to market himself to other companies. He felt he was essentially rental spike for the swoosh and just another body in a large Nike empire dominated by basketball and golf (yeah golf is dominating our sport, we got to deal with it folks). Brooks is a company purely devoted to track and Symmonds can be the face of the franchise so to speak.
I think Nick is satisfied with this position moving forward, however, as the ultimate hype machine in American track and field, Nick is putting a lot of pressure on himself to perform. He spent the summer after his fantastic 2013 season calling out a slew of potential American Records. He has put the expectations very high for this outdoor season. And to reach those goals he must now relay on an entirely new supporting cast. His new coach is a relative unknown that Symmonds has confidence in, but sounds like he will rely heavily on his experience as runner in conjuction with his new coach, Danny Mackey. Nick will also begin to train with a new group of mid distance prospects with the biggest names being Cas Loxsom and Riley Masters. Far from the experienced group of vets he had worked with in Oregon.
In addition, it looks like Nick will be throwing himself into the center of controversy and discussion. He wanted to be on the Bachelor last year rumors said. He is an active fisher and drinker, with goals of breaking the Beer Mile world record. And of course he continues to be a face for track and field athlete rights in the sport. As said I think he is a fantastic runner and great for the sport, but it's a lot of pressure for anyone to have on their shoulders.
Overall, we will find out quickly how well Nick adjusts. He has indoor races coming up quickly, including an American record attempt at the 1000m indoors. Fresh off turning 30 years old on December 30th, it will be interesting to see what Nick Symmonds has left in the tank as he enters the biggest year of his entire career trying to lift the Brooks crew to a new level of Beasts.
But clearly the decision was not track based for Symmonds. Nike has the top equipment and facilities as well as the best connections and coaches. Ditching them is sure to make things a little more difficult on the track. However, Symmonds has always been a man interested in marketing himself. He is looking for opportunities to grow is brand, to make a living and to have a strong relationship with his sponsors.
In my opinion, Symmonds is one of the greatest figures in our sport right now. He keeps the sport interesting when so many other runners in the US are just boring and bland. I fully support Nick's decision. He has talked about his decision in depth already on multiple sites, and I figure going forward much will come out as he is allowed to talk about the details of the contract. What Nick has been able to say about the contract negotiations is that Nike contracts had a lot of reductions that would cause Nick to lose money if he missed certain goals. They are essentially the opposite of bonuses for good performance. Nike also crippled his ability to market himself to other companies. He felt he was essentially rental spike for the swoosh and just another body in a large Nike empire dominated by basketball and golf (yeah golf is dominating our sport, we got to deal with it folks). Brooks is a company purely devoted to track and Symmonds can be the face of the franchise so to speak.
I think Nick is satisfied with this position moving forward, however, as the ultimate hype machine in American track and field, Nick is putting a lot of pressure on himself to perform. He spent the summer after his fantastic 2013 season calling out a slew of potential American Records. He has put the expectations very high for this outdoor season. And to reach those goals he must now relay on an entirely new supporting cast. His new coach is a relative unknown that Symmonds has confidence in, but sounds like he will rely heavily on his experience as runner in conjuction with his new coach, Danny Mackey. Nick will also begin to train with a new group of mid distance prospects with the biggest names being Cas Loxsom and Riley Masters. Far from the experienced group of vets he had worked with in Oregon.
In addition, it looks like Nick will be throwing himself into the center of controversy and discussion. He wanted to be on the Bachelor last year rumors said. He is an active fisher and drinker, with goals of breaking the Beer Mile world record. And of course he continues to be a face for track and field athlete rights in the sport. As said I think he is a fantastic runner and great for the sport, but it's a lot of pressure for anyone to have on their shoulders.
Overall, we will find out quickly how well Nick adjusts. He has indoor races coming up quickly, including an American record attempt at the 1000m indoors. Fresh off turning 30 years old on December 30th, it will be interesting to see what Nick Symmonds has left in the tank as he enters the biggest year of his entire career trying to lift the Brooks crew to a new level of Beasts.
Burdette Invitational
Before I get into the analysis I just want to say a couple things here. First off, does anyone like the raw results function much better than the new results format on penntrack? It's a cool idea and I like it because you can click directly on runners and analyze them ... but only if you are shelling out the cash for the site which I'd imagine most people probably aren't doing unfortunately.
But moral of the story here is I looked at the results in the raw format and I think it's nicer to look at.
Moving on.
It's now been 4 years since I ran in the Burdette meet and that 800m is faster than most of the 800m I have ran indoors since. It's my flat track indoor PR and arguably the best race of my life. I got 4th place in the race in 2:03.92 a step behind Hong Cho who I remember trying to get down off the final curve. Cho went on to run 1:53 that outdoors. I beat a young Drew Magaha that meet (also ran 1:53 that outdoors) as well as Craig Cassey and Matt Bee who went on to have nice careers for themselves on relays. I went on to run 1:59.8 in a relay split that outdoors. Good times.
Oh well I guess you lose some and win some. As long as the outcome is income.
-Drizzy Drake
Sooo now that I probably just lost half of my 6 person viewership with that boring opening I'll drop in a little analysis of this latest Burdette meet.
Lehigh's new track is definitely faster, especially for the shorter sprint type races and I think that is exciting to see. Lehigh's old turns were fairly tight and these new ones are solid for a flat track at 200m in length.
On to the races themselves (none of which I actually saw in person I should add),
I was intrigued by the 400m, I thought Stellato would win but he was 2nd in not that fast of a time. Maybe an injury thing? Nice win for Eric Jones in 50.83.
In the 800m, there was a nice win out of the slow heat from Joe Sullivan of Bonner, he notched a 2:04.09 mark to win and I think he definitely should have been in the fast heat, watch for him moving forward. Surprised to see Prep's Ferraiolo back at this meet, he's a stud and Malvern has been doing work, so might be a doubling thing of the sprint med. When he rounds into shape Malvern has a very dangerous indoor DMR. I'm talking state title hopes here.
I always like Liam O'Connell's ability. He ended up being a little overshadowed last year with the emergence of Alex Sauer as a certified stud, but he is a sleeper to make noise indoors. He shouldn't have a relay to worry about besides the 4x4 (unless they try and sneak together a DM with Webb but I doubt it with his 3k potential) and he will be able to focus on getting fast and bringing his times towards 1:56 type marks.
Two of the best stories from last outdoor season shined at this meet and that would be Radnor's Connor Holm and Watson Hanson. These guys were incredibly underrated last year and flew under the radar in cross because they didn't have quite the same flashy marks, but watch out for these two and their relay to really develop into something. I'm a big fan of both and it was nice to see Holm get a win in the 800m and of course Hanson grabbed an SQS which is always nice to have this early. It's only December remember.
Jaxson Hoey not only has a cool name but he has major skills. His XC season was quite strong and he is proving that transitions to the track. As mentioned, Ferraiolo was a 1:55 guy last outdoors and now Hoey is a big time 4:26 in December kind of guy. His win puts him in Mallon and Scarpello territority for this meet (and probably Palmisano territory as well). Look up those names and their times. We are talking 4:15ish kinda stuff if this development continues and he gets on a track like the Armory or PSU. And he is just a sophomore.
Those who have read my stuff know I've been on the Caldwell bandwagon for a while, nothing new here, doing strong racing in cross and at the mile which are really over distance type stuff as his true value will be at 800m this season and there is rumbling to add him in with the big dogs for state champion type material. I'll wait a little bit longer before I make a statement that he is level with Wiseman and Logue and Lewis, but he is off to a solid start without a doubt.
Garton was solid, he is also an 800m guy at his best doing solid over distance after a solid XC year. Tung and Grace are both nice pieces for North Penn. Where do they get these guys? Abert should be at 3k no doubt. But he will learn to love it, it just takes times and good results.
Those 3k times are fast. Very fast. I think Willig was maybe down around those marks in his day. Belfatto is running very well when many consider him an 800m man (probably a 12 guy on a very good DM). That is some serious over distance. Brophy is obviously a beast and another top soph to keep an eye on going forward. This kind of mark this early is very strong, especially because he likely took time off. Casey Comber is also proving he belongs next in the long line of Hatboro Horsham stand outs.
But moral of the story here is I looked at the results in the raw format and I think it's nicer to look at.
Moving on.
It's now been 4 years since I ran in the Burdette meet and that 800m is faster than most of the 800m I have ran indoors since. It's my flat track indoor PR and arguably the best race of my life. I got 4th place in the race in 2:03.92 a step behind Hong Cho who I remember trying to get down off the final curve. Cho went on to run 1:53 that outdoors. I beat a young Drew Magaha that meet (also ran 1:53 that outdoors) as well as Craig Cassey and Matt Bee who went on to have nice careers for themselves on relays. I went on to run 1:59.8 in a relay split that outdoors. Good times.
Oh well I guess you lose some and win some. As long as the outcome is income.
-Drizzy Drake
Sooo now that I probably just lost half of my 6 person viewership with that boring opening I'll drop in a little analysis of this latest Burdette meet.
Lehigh's new track is definitely faster, especially for the shorter sprint type races and I think that is exciting to see. Lehigh's old turns were fairly tight and these new ones are solid for a flat track at 200m in length.
On to the races themselves (none of which I actually saw in person I should add),
I was intrigued by the 400m, I thought Stellato would win but he was 2nd in not that fast of a time. Maybe an injury thing? Nice win for Eric Jones in 50.83.
In the 800m, there was a nice win out of the slow heat from Joe Sullivan of Bonner, he notched a 2:04.09 mark to win and I think he definitely should have been in the fast heat, watch for him moving forward. Surprised to see Prep's Ferraiolo back at this meet, he's a stud and Malvern has been doing work, so might be a doubling thing of the sprint med. When he rounds into shape Malvern has a very dangerous indoor DMR. I'm talking state title hopes here.
I always like Liam O'Connell's ability. He ended up being a little overshadowed last year with the emergence of Alex Sauer as a certified stud, but he is a sleeper to make noise indoors. He shouldn't have a relay to worry about besides the 4x4 (unless they try and sneak together a DM with Webb but I doubt it with his 3k potential) and he will be able to focus on getting fast and bringing his times towards 1:56 type marks.
Two of the best stories from last outdoor season shined at this meet and that would be Radnor's Connor Holm and Watson Hanson. These guys were incredibly underrated last year and flew under the radar in cross because they didn't have quite the same flashy marks, but watch out for these two and their relay to really develop into something. I'm a big fan of both and it was nice to see Holm get a win in the 800m and of course Hanson grabbed an SQS which is always nice to have this early. It's only December remember.
Jaxson Hoey not only has a cool name but he has major skills. His XC season was quite strong and he is proving that transitions to the track. As mentioned, Ferraiolo was a 1:55 guy last outdoors and now Hoey is a big time 4:26 in December kind of guy. His win puts him in Mallon and Scarpello territority for this meet (and probably Palmisano territory as well). Look up those names and their times. We are talking 4:15ish kinda stuff if this development continues and he gets on a track like the Armory or PSU. And he is just a sophomore.
Those who have read my stuff know I've been on the Caldwell bandwagon for a while, nothing new here, doing strong racing in cross and at the mile which are really over distance type stuff as his true value will be at 800m this season and there is rumbling to add him in with the big dogs for state champion type material. I'll wait a little bit longer before I make a statement that he is level with Wiseman and Logue and Lewis, but he is off to a solid start without a doubt.
Garton was solid, he is also an 800m guy at his best doing solid over distance after a solid XC year. Tung and Grace are both nice pieces for North Penn. Where do they get these guys? Abert should be at 3k no doubt. But he will learn to love it, it just takes times and good results.
Those 3k times are fast. Very fast. I think Willig was maybe down around those marks in his day. Belfatto is running very well when many consider him an 800m man (probably a 12 guy on a very good DM). That is some serious over distance. Brophy is obviously a beast and another top soph to keep an eye on going forward. This kind of mark this early is very strong, especially because he likely took time off. Casey Comber is also proving he belongs next in the long line of Hatboro Horsham stand outs.
NCAA DMR
As I've said before the DMR is my favorite part of indoor track and field. It's a really cool event that combines a lot of aspects of running and I wish we could see it more on the top level. So I took a little time to flip through some numbers and look at the potential top DMRs right now in the NCAA.
Oregon
It's been a while since Oregon was truly relevant in the DMR, really since the Galen Rupp days. And they have even had Wheating and Centro and Greer come through but it hasn't meant much. Maybe this is the year? They have the NCAA champion in Ed Cheresek, the super frosh who looks destined to run sub 4 if he focuses in on it. Mac Fleet is the NCAA champion at 1500m and spent the summer running in the 3:38ish and 1:46 range, improving his PRs nicely. Mike Berry I believe still has a year of eligibility as well and he is an unbelievable 400m guy who can run in the 44 mark in the right race outdoors, especially on a split. Boru Guyota is a 1:48 guy a year ago with a 1:47 PR, Jeremy Elkiam is a sub 4 miler with great strength, Russell Hornsby is a sub 1:50 guy with good strength and quietly Eric Jenkins is sitting back waiting to make a statement on the track. He's a sub 13:20 guy with sub 4 minute mile speed. Also I'm not sure on Dunbar's eligibility, but just throw another sub 4 type in there and you have great depth and ability in the Oregon locker room. Lastly Brett Johnson is a sub 4 and 1:50 type to throw in the mix.
Also I love Oregon, I got a new Oregon sweatshirt for Christmas. I'm gonna rep them all day.
Nova
Nova has had the pieces to compete in the DMR for years. Fitzsimons was a 1:47 low guy on a split out of HS with great strength and is starting to come into his own with PA's own Sam Ellison who has a PR at 1:47 in the open 8 and a penn relays split at 1:47.3. Ellison may have the fastest 800m mark of anybody from PA history, somebody would have to check the stat on that but it's up there. These guys are stud 800m men.
But they aren't the real strength of the Nova DMR argument, that belongs to Sam McEntee and Jordan Williamsyz, the two foreign boys who flanked Merber at Swat a couple years back. They are both 3:36ish types who can run 3:55 miles give or take. They are fast and Williamsyz has some nice 800m speed which makes him arguably the best 1200m league in the NCAA.
Young Ben Malone was added to the roster, Josh Lampron sits on the bench, both a couple high school studs at 1500m down around 3:45. And you can't forget Rob Denault a sub 4 miler a year ago indoors or perhaps the biggest weapon of all Patrick Tiernan, the freshman who was 9th at NCAAs in XC! He has dropped a 3:49 before the big XC improvements.
Penn State
PSU loses their stud 800m man Cas Loxsom, but they didn't even utilize him last year and still ran one of the best marks in the NCAA. They still have all 4 members of their second place squad from a year ago. Robby Creese is a dynamic sub 4 anchor runner and Brandon Kidder is coming off a breakthrough outdoor season a year ago. Add in Zavon Watkins, who has already opened with an impressive 1200m and has split 1:47.99 before ... as a sophomore in high school. Plus we have Cheltenham's own Brandon Bennent-Green whose PR is in the 45s.
Oklahoma State
After getting 5 different guys under 4 minutes indoors, OK State went out and added another star in Chad Noelle, a sub 4 miler transfer from Oregon. OK State has Kirubel Erassa and Thomas Farrell back as sub 4 guys a year ago. Erassa was in the mix to be a 3k champion for the orange cowboys last year indoors before being dragged a bit by Jenkins. Plus this team is going to be a little pissed after getting beat in XC by a couple squads. They just need to find some speed at 800m because this is really a group of 5k guys with the exception of Noelle. But they made it last year to the title match and I expect to see them back.
Stanford
Jim Rosa is coming off a stunning XC season where he ran amazing at Nats. And he has his work cut out for him if he wants to make this relay. Tyler Stutzman and Mike Atchoo were a pair of sub 4 milers for this team who bookended the relay in the big meets. Atchoo proved he can kick hard at the NCAA level against top level competition leading to a variety of sneeze jokes.
The problem right now for the Cardinals is going to come at 800m. They lose Ferris and Stutzman was their top guy last outdoor season. They would prefer to have him at 1200. Stanford will rely on a big year for PA's own Luke Lefebure. He has been on the verge of a break out season for years now and this may be the year. If it is, Stanford will be very dangerous.
Marco Bertolotti is another who could surprise. There you go Bobby. And hey maybe Sean McGorty can sneak his way in there somehow?
Wisconsin
The Badgers had a disappointing XC season, but they are much better built for the track this year. The squadron features Alex Hatz, a sub 3:40 man at 1500m this year and Rob Finnerty, a 4:01 high school miler who, when it clicks, is down around 3:40 himself, and lastly Austin Mudd, a guy with sick range at 800 and 1500 stretching from 1:47ish to 3:40ish. He could be the best 1200 guy in the NCAA if he goes after it, but he has realistic NCAA title hopes in the mile with his kicking ability.
Outside of the big three you got Zach Mellon, a stud high school 800m guy who can still run under 1:50 yearly. Also Reed Conner has found a way to run down around 3:44 despite being a great strength and 5k kind of guy first and foremost. Reed was an anchor of a national champion DMR in high school.
Arkansas
Kemoy Campbell is a baller, there is no other way to spin it. He didn't finish his XC season perfectly, but he is Jamacian and a front runner, a couple qualities that don't play to your advantage at a muddy, cold, windy meet in Indiana. But Kemoy ran sick indoors last year and was right in the mix to win the 3k over Lawi. He can run a great anchor leg and he is fearless. 3:41.00 and 13:32 PRs to work with.
To build around Kemoy they have a few nice pieces. Drew Butler ran the 12 on a national champ team in college and can run strong at that distance when healthy. Patrick Rono has a PR at 1:46.49 and is no joke of a runner at that distance. Tomas Squella as a freshman last year ran 1:46 indoors in an absurd race. He has rarely came even close to that mark, but if things click he is dangerous. Ryan Thomas ran 1:48 last year outdoors, he was another freshman with killer ability. Stanley Kebenei ran a 3:47 in the 1500 a year ago which is another solid mark to consider.
Sleeper pick: Colorado
Ben Saarel, the stud freshman in Boulder, was a sick miler in HS with great potential to break the 4 minute barrier in the right race. Pair him with Jake Hursyz who ran 3:40 a year ago and 3 other teammates who have run 3:47 or faster and new arrival Morgan Pearson. The team is the NCAA XC champs and if they can find some speed they will be dangerous.
Oregon
It's been a while since Oregon was truly relevant in the DMR, really since the Galen Rupp days. And they have even had Wheating and Centro and Greer come through but it hasn't meant much. Maybe this is the year? They have the NCAA champion in Ed Cheresek, the super frosh who looks destined to run sub 4 if he focuses in on it. Mac Fleet is the NCAA champion at 1500m and spent the summer running in the 3:38ish and 1:46 range, improving his PRs nicely. Mike Berry I believe still has a year of eligibility as well and he is an unbelievable 400m guy who can run in the 44 mark in the right race outdoors, especially on a split. Boru Guyota is a 1:48 guy a year ago with a 1:47 PR, Jeremy Elkiam is a sub 4 miler with great strength, Russell Hornsby is a sub 1:50 guy with good strength and quietly Eric Jenkins is sitting back waiting to make a statement on the track. He's a sub 13:20 guy with sub 4 minute mile speed. Also I'm not sure on Dunbar's eligibility, but just throw another sub 4 type in there and you have great depth and ability in the Oregon locker room. Lastly Brett Johnson is a sub 4 and 1:50 type to throw in the mix.
Also I love Oregon, I got a new Oregon sweatshirt for Christmas. I'm gonna rep them all day.
Nova
Nova has had the pieces to compete in the DMR for years. Fitzsimons was a 1:47 low guy on a split out of HS with great strength and is starting to come into his own with PA's own Sam Ellison who has a PR at 1:47 in the open 8 and a penn relays split at 1:47.3. Ellison may have the fastest 800m mark of anybody from PA history, somebody would have to check the stat on that but it's up there. These guys are stud 800m men.
But they aren't the real strength of the Nova DMR argument, that belongs to Sam McEntee and Jordan Williamsyz, the two foreign boys who flanked Merber at Swat a couple years back. They are both 3:36ish types who can run 3:55 miles give or take. They are fast and Williamsyz has some nice 800m speed which makes him arguably the best 1200m league in the NCAA.
Young Ben Malone was added to the roster, Josh Lampron sits on the bench, both a couple high school studs at 1500m down around 3:45. And you can't forget Rob Denault a sub 4 miler a year ago indoors or perhaps the biggest weapon of all Patrick Tiernan, the freshman who was 9th at NCAAs in XC! He has dropped a 3:49 before the big XC improvements.
Penn State
PSU loses their stud 800m man Cas Loxsom, but they didn't even utilize him last year and still ran one of the best marks in the NCAA. They still have all 4 members of their second place squad from a year ago. Robby Creese is a dynamic sub 4 anchor runner and Brandon Kidder is coming off a breakthrough outdoor season a year ago. Add in Zavon Watkins, who has already opened with an impressive 1200m and has split 1:47.99 before ... as a sophomore in high school. Plus we have Cheltenham's own Brandon Bennent-Green whose PR is in the 45s.
Oklahoma State
After getting 5 different guys under 4 minutes indoors, OK State went out and added another star in Chad Noelle, a sub 4 miler transfer from Oregon. OK State has Kirubel Erassa and Thomas Farrell back as sub 4 guys a year ago. Erassa was in the mix to be a 3k champion for the orange cowboys last year indoors before being dragged a bit by Jenkins. Plus this team is going to be a little pissed after getting beat in XC by a couple squads. They just need to find some speed at 800m because this is really a group of 5k guys with the exception of Noelle. But they made it last year to the title match and I expect to see them back.
Stanford
Jim Rosa is coming off a stunning XC season where he ran amazing at Nats. And he has his work cut out for him if he wants to make this relay. Tyler Stutzman and Mike Atchoo were a pair of sub 4 milers for this team who bookended the relay in the big meets. Atchoo proved he can kick hard at the NCAA level against top level competition leading to a variety of sneeze jokes.
The problem right now for the Cardinals is going to come at 800m. They lose Ferris and Stutzman was their top guy last outdoor season. They would prefer to have him at 1200. Stanford will rely on a big year for PA's own Luke Lefebure. He has been on the verge of a break out season for years now and this may be the year. If it is, Stanford will be very dangerous.
Marco Bertolotti is another who could surprise. There you go Bobby. And hey maybe Sean McGorty can sneak his way in there somehow?
Wisconsin
The Badgers had a disappointing XC season, but they are much better built for the track this year. The squadron features Alex Hatz, a sub 3:40 man at 1500m this year and Rob Finnerty, a 4:01 high school miler who, when it clicks, is down around 3:40 himself, and lastly Austin Mudd, a guy with sick range at 800 and 1500 stretching from 1:47ish to 3:40ish. He could be the best 1200 guy in the NCAA if he goes after it, but he has realistic NCAA title hopes in the mile with his kicking ability.
Outside of the big three you got Zach Mellon, a stud high school 800m guy who can still run under 1:50 yearly. Also Reed Conner has found a way to run down around 3:44 despite being a great strength and 5k kind of guy first and foremost. Reed was an anchor of a national champion DMR in high school.
Arkansas
Kemoy Campbell is a baller, there is no other way to spin it. He didn't finish his XC season perfectly, but he is Jamacian and a front runner, a couple qualities that don't play to your advantage at a muddy, cold, windy meet in Indiana. But Kemoy ran sick indoors last year and was right in the mix to win the 3k over Lawi. He can run a great anchor leg and he is fearless. 3:41.00 and 13:32 PRs to work with.
To build around Kemoy they have a few nice pieces. Drew Butler ran the 12 on a national champ team in college and can run strong at that distance when healthy. Patrick Rono has a PR at 1:46.49 and is no joke of a runner at that distance. Tomas Squella as a freshman last year ran 1:46 indoors in an absurd race. He has rarely came even close to that mark, but if things click he is dangerous. Ryan Thomas ran 1:48 last year outdoors, he was another freshman with killer ability. Stanley Kebenei ran a 3:47 in the 1500 a year ago which is another solid mark to consider.
Sleeper pick: Colorado
Ben Saarel, the stud freshman in Boulder, was a sick miler in HS with great potential to break the 4 minute barrier in the right race. Pair him with Jake Hursyz who ran 3:40 a year ago and 3 other teammates who have run 3:47 or faster and new arrival Morgan Pearson. The team is the NCAA XC champs and if they can find some speed they will be dangerous.
IAAF World Relay Championships
So if you haven't heard, the distance relays are cool again! At the 2014 world relay championships, which will be sponsored by the IAAF and held in Nassau in the Bahamas, will occur at the end of May, not quite ideal training spots for the world's top athletes. However, this is still an exciting new concept and event and, because this is the first time we have seen such an event, there is room for lots of speculation about what is to come!
Do I think all the world's top athletes will jump on board? No I honestly do not. But I have heard that Nick Symmonds, our best 800m man in the US, is interested and looking to go after the world record in the 4x8. So maybe other patriotic athletes world wide will be down to jump into the pit.
Let me give you an idea of what the schedule is going to look like for the distance relays. There are no prelims in the distance relays.
Day 1 (May 24th)
18:10 Men's 4x800m Final
19:28 Women's 4x1500m Final
Day 2 (May 25th)
18:39 Men's 4x1500m Final
19:00 Women's 4x800m Final
The world records in these events are as follows:
Men's 4x800m- 7:02.43, Kenya 2006 (US is #2 AT 7:02.82 in the same race)
Men's 4x1500m- 14:36.23, Kenya 2009 (US is #7 AT 14:46.3h 1979)
Women's 4x800m- 7:50.17 USSR 1984 (US ran AR at Penn Relays last year 8:04.31)
No Women's WR in the 4x1500m is listed on the IAAF Website, but in 2013 Michigan won the 4x1500m relay at Penn in 17:15.47, which was the fastest time of 2013 (this relay is not often run). I'd imagine the world record is down near 16 minutes if nations have taken legit shots at it.
So what can the US do at this meet?
Here are the 800m pieces we have at our disposal on the men's side with their 2013 best mark listed:
Nick Symmonds 1:43.03
Duane Soloman 1:43.27
Brandon Johnson 1:43.84
Tyler Mulder 1:44.34
Charles Jock 1:45.01
Elijah Greer 1:45.04
Joe Abbot 1:45.04
Michael Rutt 1:45.08
Erik Sowinski 1:45.21
Mark Wieczorek 1:45.36
Brian Gagnon 1:45.45
Cas Loxsom 1:45.75
Not included in this group are guys like Robby Andrews (1:44.71 PR) and Ryan Martin (1:44 man as well). Andrews suffered through groin problems a year ago but has proven he is a superb relay runner with multiple wins at the Penn Relays. Loxsom has a nice resume of relay legs at Penn at 800m and 400m. Jock's PR is under 1:45 and Symmonds and Soloman have bests under 1:43 from London. Sowinski is the American Record holder indoors for 600m and is a guy on the rise this year. And always lurking is Andrew Wheating, sitting back with a 1:44 PR and lots of nice relay accomplishments.
1:45.00 a man gives you 7:00.00 which is well under the world and american records.
In the 1500m we have the following guys (again 2013 bests):
Leo Manzano 3:33.14
David Torrence 3:33.23
Matt Centrowitz 3:33.58
Jordan MacNamara 3:34.00
Garrett Heath 3:34.12
Andrew Bayer 3:34.47
Lopez Lomong 3:34.55
Nick Symmonds 3:34.55
Cory Leslie 3:34.93
Will Leer 3:35.27
Craig Miller 3:35.48
Jack Bolas 3:35.54
If you move to the next few spots along the list you see names like Galen Rupp, Bernard Lagat and Evan Jager as well as Matt Elliot, Mac Fleet, Russell Brown and Andrew Wheating. We have a real lot of pieces here when you look at it.
Wheating has a PR of 3:30 from not that long ago. He has really been a funk as of late but he is a powerful untapped resource in both events. Galen Rupp was in 3:50 mile shape indoors last year so if he wants to be in sharp 1500m shape he can be in late May. Lagat is getting old and perhaps a bit past his 1500m prime, but he does have a 3:26 PR and the power of ageless wonder on his side ....
Lopez Lomong, Leo Manzano and Matt Centrowitz all have PRs at 3:32 or faster and Manzano and Centro both have silver medals to their name. These guys were the 4 to make the world champs team last year. Matt Elliot was the surprise fourth place finisher with a 3:36 PR and some good racing tactics.
Other guys like Miles Batty and Mac Fleet have had great runs at the NCAA level and just need to turn the corner to become elite at the professional level for the US. And of course Robby Andrews has a PR of 3:34 in an effort that almost bested Mo Farah and Galen Rupp in 2012.
So clearly there are pieces here. An average of 3:35.00 gives a total time of 14:20.00 which would be under the current world record in the 4x1500m by 16 seconds and under the American Record by over 26 seconds.
Given the runners the US has at their disposal it seems that the question is not, will the world records in these events be broken on the distance side, but rather how much will they be broken by?
Do I think all the world's top athletes will jump on board? No I honestly do not. But I have heard that Nick Symmonds, our best 800m man in the US, is interested and looking to go after the world record in the 4x8. So maybe other patriotic athletes world wide will be down to jump into the pit.
Let me give you an idea of what the schedule is going to look like for the distance relays. There are no prelims in the distance relays.
Day 1 (May 24th)
18:10 Men's 4x800m Final
19:28 Women's 4x1500m Final
Day 2 (May 25th)
18:39 Men's 4x1500m Final
19:00 Women's 4x800m Final
The world records in these events are as follows:
Men's 4x800m- 7:02.43, Kenya 2006 (US is #2 AT 7:02.82 in the same race)
Men's 4x1500m- 14:36.23, Kenya 2009 (US is #7 AT 14:46.3h 1979)
Women's 4x800m- 7:50.17 USSR 1984 (US ran AR at Penn Relays last year 8:04.31)
No Women's WR in the 4x1500m is listed on the IAAF Website, but in 2013 Michigan won the 4x1500m relay at Penn in 17:15.47, which was the fastest time of 2013 (this relay is not often run). I'd imagine the world record is down near 16 minutes if nations have taken legit shots at it.
So what can the US do at this meet?
Here are the 800m pieces we have at our disposal on the men's side with their 2013 best mark listed:
Nick Symmonds 1:43.03
Duane Soloman 1:43.27
Brandon Johnson 1:43.84
Tyler Mulder 1:44.34
Charles Jock 1:45.01
Elijah Greer 1:45.04
Joe Abbot 1:45.04
Michael Rutt 1:45.08
Erik Sowinski 1:45.21
Mark Wieczorek 1:45.36
Brian Gagnon 1:45.45
Cas Loxsom 1:45.75
Not included in this group are guys like Robby Andrews (1:44.71 PR) and Ryan Martin (1:44 man as well). Andrews suffered through groin problems a year ago but has proven he is a superb relay runner with multiple wins at the Penn Relays. Loxsom has a nice resume of relay legs at Penn at 800m and 400m. Jock's PR is under 1:45 and Symmonds and Soloman have bests under 1:43 from London. Sowinski is the American Record holder indoors for 600m and is a guy on the rise this year. And always lurking is Andrew Wheating, sitting back with a 1:44 PR and lots of nice relay accomplishments.
1:45.00 a man gives you 7:00.00 which is well under the world and american records.
In the 1500m we have the following guys (again 2013 bests):
Leo Manzano 3:33.14
David Torrence 3:33.23
Matt Centrowitz 3:33.58
Jordan MacNamara 3:34.00
Garrett Heath 3:34.12
Andrew Bayer 3:34.47
Lopez Lomong 3:34.55
Nick Symmonds 3:34.55
Cory Leslie 3:34.93
Will Leer 3:35.27
Craig Miller 3:35.48
Jack Bolas 3:35.54
If you move to the next few spots along the list you see names like Galen Rupp, Bernard Lagat and Evan Jager as well as Matt Elliot, Mac Fleet, Russell Brown and Andrew Wheating. We have a real lot of pieces here when you look at it.
Wheating has a PR of 3:30 from not that long ago. He has really been a funk as of late but he is a powerful untapped resource in both events. Galen Rupp was in 3:50 mile shape indoors last year so if he wants to be in sharp 1500m shape he can be in late May. Lagat is getting old and perhaps a bit past his 1500m prime, but he does have a 3:26 PR and the power of ageless wonder on his side ....
Lopez Lomong, Leo Manzano and Matt Centrowitz all have PRs at 3:32 or faster and Manzano and Centro both have silver medals to their name. These guys were the 4 to make the world champs team last year. Matt Elliot was the surprise fourth place finisher with a 3:36 PR and some good racing tactics.
Other guys like Miles Batty and Mac Fleet have had great runs at the NCAA level and just need to turn the corner to become elite at the professional level for the US. And of course Robby Andrews has a PR of 3:34 in an effort that almost bested Mo Farah and Galen Rupp in 2012.
So clearly there are pieces here. An average of 3:35.00 gives a total time of 14:20.00 which would be under the current world record in the 4x1500m by 16 seconds and under the American Record by over 26 seconds.
Given the runners the US has at their disposal it seems that the question is not, will the world records in these events be broken on the distance side, but rather how much will they be broken by?
Indoor Track: AKA TFCAofGP Track
Not trying to start a big war here, but clearly the numbers show that District One is the best district in track and field. It should be, it has the most people to chose from and provides excellent competition year round among great teams. However, what I find intriguing is that this Philly Area (including the PCL in this group for both indoors and outdoors) dominance is greater indoors than outdoors when I look through previous years results indoors.
Looking at past years results, it's clear that if you live in the Philly Area you have a big time advantage when it comes to indoor track. I did a simple comparison on the distance side over the past 5 years between the indoor results at states and the outdoor AAA results to make sure that my suspicions were accurate and the numbers back up my claim.
The study is probably flawed in favor of showing that this trend does not hold, and it still does. Why? We are only looking at AAA results and completely excluding outdoor AA results. But indoors, since everyone runs together, we include these AA runners in the study. The top AA runners are, for the most part, outside of the TFCAofGP. Thus, they will decrease the number of TFCAofGP runners taking top spots indoors, but not outdoors. Guys like Brendan Shearn for example fit this bill. Just keep that in mind going forward.
So here we go, what do the numbers show?
In 2013 by itself, the TFCAofGP had the champion in every single distance event indoors, including the DMR and 4x8. 14 of the 16 medalists from the relays were from this Philly area association, while outdoors just 50% of the medalists in the 4x8 came from this league. In addition, just 41.6% of the 12 finalists in the 4x8 outdoors in AAA were from the TFCAofGP.
In total over the last 5 years, in the individual events 58.33% of the medalists have come from the TFCAofGP compared to just 48.33% outdoors. 10 of the 15 individual state champions have come from the greater philly area indoors in the past 5 years, while, perhaps surprisingly, 12 of the 15 individual state champions outdoors have been from the philly area, a stat that runs counter to my theory.
What does this show? It is a depth issue here, not a talent issue. The most talented runners will get their state titles, regardless of where they come from. But strong runners who are not Wade Endress type beasts, are going to struggle to compete indoors with guys who are getting top notch competition every weekend. Most schools just can't fund that kind of racing schedule if they don't have a real indoor program, and schools out west can't travel that far to get into the gold mine of talent in TFCAofGP type meets.
Where the numbers really show a trend is in the relays, which continues on with this idea of depth and quality of racing. 87.5% of the medalists indoors in the DMR and 4x8 combined are from the TFCAofGP. 100% of the relay champions indoors have come from the TFCAofGP. The Wade Endress anchored DMR indoors in 2010 was the closest anyone has come to dethroning the powerhouses from the GP.
The crazy thing is that in 2012, 2011, and 2010 the GPA took at least the top 7 spots in the 4x8 at states. In 2010, they took the top 14! Ususally the only medalists that come from outside the greater philly area are teams that scoop up one of the last few medals from the slow heat like Chambersburg, Easton, State College and Cumberland Valley have tried to do in the past. Otherwise it's total domination from the TFCAofGP squads.
Outdoors things look much different. 60% of the medalists in the 4x8 come from TFCAofGP, still a high number, but much differen than the nearly 90% we had seen previously. In addition, it's a 3-2 split in relay champions with TFCAofGP having a slight advantage thanks to the 2009 CB South team tie breaker (or perhaps it is more logical to call Bensalem this year the tie-breaker).
Across the board relays are mixing it up better indoors rather than outdoors with teams like CValley consistently performing at a higher level.
The biggest beneficiary from the move outdoors definitely seems to be District 3. Indoors they have not been able to get a state title on the distance side. However, outdoors between Brehm, CValley and Cedar Crest they have managed to break up some of the D1/Philly dominance. D7 got Gunzenhauser and Gil indoors with Martin and Bailey outdoors. In addition, their depth is much better shown outdoors than indoors.
Rarely do you see a non-TFCAofGP guy run his best marks of the year indoors, but there are usually a decent amount of Philly guys who do have PRs from indoors for whatever reason. Norris's states 3k was his best outside of Penn and he didn't match those marks in the late season meets. Rivera in the 800m got his PR indoors as did Sanders. Logue ran similar marks indoors and out. Wiseman took about a second off his mark, Lewis ran virtually a PR indoors. In 2009 Mallon and Palmisano and Reilly ran their fastest open 800m of the season indoors. Trainer's mark indoors for 3k in 2011 converted to a PR for the season counting outdoors. Willig had his best marks indoors, although injuries really screwed up his outdoor season that year. Ryan Horgan can be included here as well for his 800m and even guys like Savage or my boy Francis Ferruzzi have struggled to run marks equivalent to their indoor times once moving outside. Ivo, Kaulbach, Bodary, ...
The list can go on for a while here.
Overall, I think, while indoors is the only place where we have all the independent schools and AA schools come together with the AAA schools to decide one state champion, it is a bit of a flawed state championship. The real champions come in the spring and in the fall.
So my last point would be, let's try and get a PTFCA meet of champions for track! Make it the week after states, or maybe two weeks if people need time to rest (but then people may be less likely to do it). It would be fantastic to see a meet like we have indoors take place outdoors where true champions could be crowned.
Think about it PA officials ....
Stay classy,
Train
I leave my numbers below for you to inspect if you would like
2013
800m
5/8, champion, 15/24
4/8, not champion, 7/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 13/23
6/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
4/8, champion, 12/20
4/8, not champion, 7/12, 9/20
4x800m
7/8, champion, 17/20
4/8, champion, 5/12
DMR
7/8, champion, 12/13
2012
800m
5/8, champion, 16/21
3/8, not champion, 4/12
Mile/1600m
4/8, champion, 17/29
5/8, champion, 7/12
3000m/3200m
6/8, champion, 9/13
2/8, champion, 5/13, 8/20
4x800m
7/8, champion (top 7), 15/19
4/8, not champion, 8/12
DMR
6/8, champion, 7/11
2011
800m
4/8, not champion, 18/35
3/8, champion, 6/12
Mile/1600m
4/8, not champion, 12/18
3/8, champion, 7/12
3000m/3200m
5/8, not champion, 5/13
3/8, champion, 5/13, 9/20
4x800m
7/8 (top 7), champion, 17/23
5/8, champion, 8/12
DMR
8/8, champion, 11/13
2010
800m
4/8, champion, 16/26
5/8, champion, 7/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 10/18
6/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
2/8, not champion, 12/21
1/8, champion, 8/21
4x800m
8/8, champion, 18/20 (top 14 teams)
5/8, not champion, 6/12
DMR
6/8, champion 6/10
2009
800m
5/8, champion, 15/25
3/8, champion, 3/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 17/26
5/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
4/8, not champion, 7/11
5/8, champion, 8/11, 9/20
4x800m
7/8, champion, 11/14
6/8, champion, 9/12
DMR
7/8, champion, 9/10
Looking at past years results, it's clear that if you live in the Philly Area you have a big time advantage when it comes to indoor track. I did a simple comparison on the distance side over the past 5 years between the indoor results at states and the outdoor AAA results to make sure that my suspicions were accurate and the numbers back up my claim.
The study is probably flawed in favor of showing that this trend does not hold, and it still does. Why? We are only looking at AAA results and completely excluding outdoor AA results. But indoors, since everyone runs together, we include these AA runners in the study. The top AA runners are, for the most part, outside of the TFCAofGP. Thus, they will decrease the number of TFCAofGP runners taking top spots indoors, but not outdoors. Guys like Brendan Shearn for example fit this bill. Just keep that in mind going forward.
So here we go, what do the numbers show?
In 2013 by itself, the TFCAofGP had the champion in every single distance event indoors, including the DMR and 4x8. 14 of the 16 medalists from the relays were from this Philly area association, while outdoors just 50% of the medalists in the 4x8 came from this league. In addition, just 41.6% of the 12 finalists in the 4x8 outdoors in AAA were from the TFCAofGP.
In total over the last 5 years, in the individual events 58.33% of the medalists have come from the TFCAofGP compared to just 48.33% outdoors. 10 of the 15 individual state champions have come from the greater philly area indoors in the past 5 years, while, perhaps surprisingly, 12 of the 15 individual state champions outdoors have been from the philly area, a stat that runs counter to my theory.
What does this show? It is a depth issue here, not a talent issue. The most talented runners will get their state titles, regardless of where they come from. But strong runners who are not Wade Endress type beasts, are going to struggle to compete indoors with guys who are getting top notch competition every weekend. Most schools just can't fund that kind of racing schedule if they don't have a real indoor program, and schools out west can't travel that far to get into the gold mine of talent in TFCAofGP type meets.
Where the numbers really show a trend is in the relays, which continues on with this idea of depth and quality of racing. 87.5% of the medalists indoors in the DMR and 4x8 combined are from the TFCAofGP. 100% of the relay champions indoors have come from the TFCAofGP. The Wade Endress anchored DMR indoors in 2010 was the closest anyone has come to dethroning the powerhouses from the GP.
The crazy thing is that in 2012, 2011, and 2010 the GPA took at least the top 7 spots in the 4x8 at states. In 2010, they took the top 14! Ususally the only medalists that come from outside the greater philly area are teams that scoop up one of the last few medals from the slow heat like Chambersburg, Easton, State College and Cumberland Valley have tried to do in the past. Otherwise it's total domination from the TFCAofGP squads.
Outdoors things look much different. 60% of the medalists in the 4x8 come from TFCAofGP, still a high number, but much differen than the nearly 90% we had seen previously. In addition, it's a 3-2 split in relay champions with TFCAofGP having a slight advantage thanks to the 2009 CB South team tie breaker (or perhaps it is more logical to call Bensalem this year the tie-breaker).
Across the board relays are mixing it up better indoors rather than outdoors with teams like CValley consistently performing at a higher level.
The biggest beneficiary from the move outdoors definitely seems to be District 3. Indoors they have not been able to get a state title on the distance side. However, outdoors between Brehm, CValley and Cedar Crest they have managed to break up some of the D1/Philly dominance. D7 got Gunzenhauser and Gil indoors with Martin and Bailey outdoors. In addition, their depth is much better shown outdoors than indoors.
Rarely do you see a non-TFCAofGP guy run his best marks of the year indoors, but there are usually a decent amount of Philly guys who do have PRs from indoors for whatever reason. Norris's states 3k was his best outside of Penn and he didn't match those marks in the late season meets. Rivera in the 800m got his PR indoors as did Sanders. Logue ran similar marks indoors and out. Wiseman took about a second off his mark, Lewis ran virtually a PR indoors. In 2009 Mallon and Palmisano and Reilly ran their fastest open 800m of the season indoors. Trainer's mark indoors for 3k in 2011 converted to a PR for the season counting outdoors. Willig had his best marks indoors, although injuries really screwed up his outdoor season that year. Ryan Horgan can be included here as well for his 800m and even guys like Savage or my boy Francis Ferruzzi have struggled to run marks equivalent to their indoor times once moving outside. Ivo, Kaulbach, Bodary, ...
The list can go on for a while here.
Overall, I think, while indoors is the only place where we have all the independent schools and AA schools come together with the AAA schools to decide one state champion, it is a bit of a flawed state championship. The real champions come in the spring and in the fall.
So my last point would be, let's try and get a PTFCA meet of champions for track! Make it the week after states, or maybe two weeks if people need time to rest (but then people may be less likely to do it). It would be fantastic to see a meet like we have indoors take place outdoors where true champions could be crowned.
Think about it PA officials ....
Stay classy,
Train
I leave my numbers below for you to inspect if you would like
2013
800m
5/8, champion, 15/24
4/8, not champion, 7/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 13/23
6/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
4/8, champion, 12/20
4/8, not champion, 7/12, 9/20
4x800m
7/8, champion, 17/20
4/8, champion, 5/12
DMR
7/8, champion, 12/13
2012
800m
5/8, champion, 16/21
3/8, not champion, 4/12
Mile/1600m
4/8, champion, 17/29
5/8, champion, 7/12
3000m/3200m
6/8, champion, 9/13
2/8, champion, 5/13, 8/20
4x800m
7/8, champion (top 7), 15/19
4/8, not champion, 8/12
DMR
6/8, champion, 7/11
2011
800m
4/8, not champion, 18/35
3/8, champion, 6/12
Mile/1600m
4/8, not champion, 12/18
3/8, champion, 7/12
3000m/3200m
5/8, not champion, 5/13
3/8, champion, 5/13, 9/20
4x800m
7/8 (top 7), champion, 17/23
5/8, champion, 8/12
DMR
8/8, champion, 11/13
2010
800m
4/8, champion, 16/26
5/8, champion, 7/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 10/18
6/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
2/8, not champion, 12/21
1/8, champion, 8/21
4x800m
8/8, champion, 18/20 (top 14 teams)
5/8, not champion, 6/12
DMR
6/8, champion 6/10
2009
800m
5/8, champion, 15/25
3/8, champion, 3/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 17/26
5/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
4/8, not champion, 7/11
5/8, champion, 8/11, 9/20
4x800m
7/8, champion, 11/14
6/8, champion, 9/12
DMR
7/8, champion, 9/10
Bold Predictions for 2014
So in the spirit of the new year I'm going to kinda throw down on paper some of the ideas running through my head for what 2014 will be like. I've divided up my predictions into sections to fit the variety of people who may happen across my blog one of these days. I hope you enjoy!
PA HS Predictions
1. Despite losing All-Americans like Russell and Barchet, Henderson Coach Kevin Kelly will still end up piecing together a squad that gets in the state title conversation.
2. Kyle Francis will win the 800m indoors despite the hype around Wiseman, Logue, Lewis, and Brehm. It will be a state meet record 1:51.59
3. Wiseman and Brehm will run the entire race in lanes 3 and 4 respectively in order to try and prove to all their haters that they are not actually dirty runners, but this strategy will ultimately end up backfiring.
4. Griffin Molino and Dan Shalala will battle Rad Gunzenhauser for greatest name of a sub 16 minute 5k guy. Brad Miles will try to argue his punny name deserves to be in the discussion, but ultimately the judges will disqualify him.
5. O'Hara's DMR goes to nationals and runs a state record.
6. In a post race interview Kevin James says the success is all thanks to the time I autographed his face.
7. The Malvern Prep boys will pull the upset at indoor states in the DMR over a slew of tired squads who are doubling key runners.
8. Will Cather will qualify in every event from the 400m to the 3000m including the 4x8 and DMR. By states he will be so confused as to what he actually should run, he freaks out about all the options and hops in the 4x2 for his squad. He runs 20.65 to bring home the Gold.
Professional Running Predictions
9. Galen Rupp will set up a chase of the American record at 5k, but in a surpising kick finish Jager will jump on his shoulders and pass by him on the final straight away.
10. Bernard Lagat will end up winning the race and breaking his own AR with a 12:52 at 52 years of age. He will some how once again escape PED charges.
11. After a meeting with Jarrett Felix at the Millrose Games, Robby Andrews is so concerned for his safety from this stalker that he sprints around the track in an American record 2:17.02. Nick Symmonds ask Steve Finley for a meeting with Felix in order to chase the outdoor records he has in mind.
12. David Rudisha will have a super over hyped 1500m run in which, despite predictions that he will run 3:27, he actually runs 3:37. Once everyone writes him off as washed up, Rudisha will go to Reiti and drop a 1:40.86 to break his own world record.
13. Mary Cain will continue her assault on all of my PRs. After she notches a 1:58.93 to beat his 800m, she manages to convince meet directors at the Lehigh Invitational to let her race him head to head in a 400m during which she drops a 50.6 to Jarrett's 51.6. He get's made fun of but only cries for 32 minutes.
NCAA Running Predictions
14. Trying to hold the burden of huge expectations, Ed Cheserek will struggle to break 13:50 in the 5k. He will, however, get a strong grasp on the English language.
15. Jim Spisak and Alfredo Santana, a couple PA alumns that got no respect in HS, find themselves as the top PA guys in the NCAA as both run under 13:40 in the 5k this spring.
16. Jonas Oppenheimer outkicks Chris Stadler in the mile at indoor conferences as Stadler's ears are not quite powerful enough to beat out Jonas's.
17. Mac Fleet will look like he is on his way to a repeat title in the 1500m outdoors at Hayward Field, but he will begin his pointing at the crowd celebration a little too early and be outsprinted to the finish by Wisconsin's Austin Mudd.
Muhlenberg Predictions
18. The Muhlenberg 4x8 will finally dip under the 8 minute barrier with a thrilling 7:59.98 time.
19. The 4 members of the relay will be Kieran Newcomb, Forrest Kentwell, Bobby McGetrick and Steve Finley dressed up as Zach Lifman after a growth spurt.
20. Josh Elkan finally gets his chance at the 5k at the outdoor home meet. He runs strong for 4900m but is caught and outkicked by a suprise burst from Zach Lifman on the final straightaway. After Elkan screams out the F bomb at the top of his lungs, Coach Hackett is forced to suspend him, thus taking away his 4x8 spot.
21. Kenny Wohl, determined to prove the doubters wrong, will come back in amazing shape from his trip abroad. After a fantastic XC season that included a 26:37 run, he will, unfortunately, roll his ankle during a 10 mile long run on the track.
22. Alex Weiner will go abroad in the fall. He will be kicked out and sent back to Muhlenberg.
23. Josh Elkan and Zach Lifman will enter the conference meet as the 6th and 7th men locked in a tight battle. However, at conferences Alex Weiner, recently kicked off his abroad trip, gets in shape just in time to beat both gentleman over the last 800m. Things really get upsetting when Charlie Kline, once again coming back from injury, takes the 7th spot for regionals.
24. Both Josh and Zach still will run at Regionals at Dickinson. Kenny rolls his ankle and gives up his spot and Coach Steve will find out Charlie graduated last year and will not let him run.
Miscellaneous Predictions
25. Stephen Curry's Warriors will be a 7 seed in the West, but in a dramatic upset will beat the Spurs, Blazers and Thunders will get to the NBA finals against the Miami Heat. Curry makes a game winner over Lebron making this picture surprisingly relevant:
26. The Philadelphia Eagles will make a dramatic run to the NFC championship game against the Seattle Seahawks to the dismay of Jarrett, who will be forced to root against his boy Russell Wilson in the championship game.
26.2 Jarrett will lose interest in trying to make his blog the track version of Grantland somewhere around January 15th, but then will try and hold on to the tiny sliver of fame he has left in Forrest's videos that go up on his blog. After a variety of people call him "the creepy old guy" he will quit his position. The next day Flotrack will hire Forrest to be a permanent feature of their site.
More to come later this week if ya'll are interested.
PA HS Predictions
1. Despite losing All-Americans like Russell and Barchet, Henderson Coach Kevin Kelly will still end up piecing together a squad that gets in the state title conversation.
2. Kyle Francis will win the 800m indoors despite the hype around Wiseman, Logue, Lewis, and Brehm. It will be a state meet record 1:51.59
3. Wiseman and Brehm will run the entire race in lanes 3 and 4 respectively in order to try and prove to all their haters that they are not actually dirty runners, but this strategy will ultimately end up backfiring.
4. Griffin Molino and Dan Shalala will battle Rad Gunzenhauser for greatest name of a sub 16 minute 5k guy. Brad Miles will try to argue his punny name deserves to be in the discussion, but ultimately the judges will disqualify him.
5. O'Hara's DMR goes to nationals and runs a state record.
6. In a post race interview Kevin James says the success is all thanks to the time I autographed his face.
7. The Malvern Prep boys will pull the upset at indoor states in the DMR over a slew of tired squads who are doubling key runners.
8. Will Cather will qualify in every event from the 400m to the 3000m including the 4x8 and DMR. By states he will be so confused as to what he actually should run, he freaks out about all the options and hops in the 4x2 for his squad. He runs 20.65 to bring home the Gold.
Professional Running Predictions
9. Galen Rupp will set up a chase of the American record at 5k, but in a surpising kick finish Jager will jump on his shoulders and pass by him on the final straight away.
10. Bernard Lagat will end up winning the race and breaking his own AR with a 12:52 at 52 years of age. He will some how once again escape PED charges.
11. After a meeting with Jarrett Felix at the Millrose Games, Robby Andrews is so concerned for his safety from this stalker that he sprints around the track in an American record 2:17.02. Nick Symmonds ask Steve Finley for a meeting with Felix in order to chase the outdoor records he has in mind.
12. David Rudisha will have a super over hyped 1500m run in which, despite predictions that he will run 3:27, he actually runs 3:37. Once everyone writes him off as washed up, Rudisha will go to Reiti and drop a 1:40.86 to break his own world record.
13. Mary Cain will continue her assault on all of my PRs. After she notches a 1:58.93 to beat his 800m, she manages to convince meet directors at the Lehigh Invitational to let her race him head to head in a 400m during which she drops a 50.6 to Jarrett's 51.6. He get's made fun of but only cries for 32 minutes.
NCAA Running Predictions
14. Trying to hold the burden of huge expectations, Ed Cheserek will struggle to break 13:50 in the 5k. He will, however, get a strong grasp on the English language.
15. Jim Spisak and Alfredo Santana, a couple PA alumns that got no respect in HS, find themselves as the top PA guys in the NCAA as both run under 13:40 in the 5k this spring.
16. Jonas Oppenheimer outkicks Chris Stadler in the mile at indoor conferences as Stadler's ears are not quite powerful enough to beat out Jonas's.
17. Mac Fleet will look like he is on his way to a repeat title in the 1500m outdoors at Hayward Field, but he will begin his pointing at the crowd celebration a little too early and be outsprinted to the finish by Wisconsin's Austin Mudd.
Muhlenberg Predictions
18. The Muhlenberg 4x8 will finally dip under the 8 minute barrier with a thrilling 7:59.98 time.
19. The 4 members of the relay will be Kieran Newcomb, Forrest Kentwell, Bobby McGetrick and Steve Finley dressed up as Zach Lifman after a growth spurt.
20. Josh Elkan finally gets his chance at the 5k at the outdoor home meet. He runs strong for 4900m but is caught and outkicked by a suprise burst from Zach Lifman on the final straightaway. After Elkan screams out the F bomb at the top of his lungs, Coach Hackett is forced to suspend him, thus taking away his 4x8 spot.
21. Kenny Wohl, determined to prove the doubters wrong, will come back in amazing shape from his trip abroad. After a fantastic XC season that included a 26:37 run, he will, unfortunately, roll his ankle during a 10 mile long run on the track.
22. Alex Weiner will go abroad in the fall. He will be kicked out and sent back to Muhlenberg.
23. Josh Elkan and Zach Lifman will enter the conference meet as the 6th and 7th men locked in a tight battle. However, at conferences Alex Weiner, recently kicked off his abroad trip, gets in shape just in time to beat both gentleman over the last 800m. Things really get upsetting when Charlie Kline, once again coming back from injury, takes the 7th spot for regionals.
24. Both Josh and Zach still will run at Regionals at Dickinson. Kenny rolls his ankle and gives up his spot and Coach Steve will find out Charlie graduated last year and will not let him run.
Miscellaneous Predictions
25. Stephen Curry's Warriors will be a 7 seed in the West, but in a dramatic upset will beat the Spurs, Blazers and Thunders will get to the NBA finals against the Miami Heat. Curry makes a game winner over Lebron making this picture surprisingly relevant:
26. The Philadelphia Eagles will make a dramatic run to the NFC championship game against the Seattle Seahawks to the dismay of Jarrett, who will be forced to root against his boy Russell Wilson in the championship game.
26.2 Jarrett will lose interest in trying to make his blog the track version of Grantland somewhere around January 15th, but then will try and hold on to the tiny sliver of fame he has left in Forrest's videos that go up on his blog. After a variety of people call him "the creepy old guy" he will quit his position. The next day Flotrack will hire Forrest to be a permanent feature of their site.
More to come later this week if ya'll are interested.
Top 11 Things to Love About Indoors
Let's face it, there are not a lot of things to like about the indoor track season. I'd bet a decent amount of money that if asked any runner his/her favorite season of running they would say outdoors or XC. Never indoors. Heck summer training is more appealing to some people than indoor track.
But indoor is not all bad, in some respects, it's probably underrated. So here are my own personal (biased) top 11 reasons to love indoor track.
11. It's the start of track!
Look whether you like XC or not, after a long summer and fall of doing long tempos and big miles, isn't it nice to get out there and run fast? Certain guys are XC guys, others are track guys and those track guys are pumped to get on the track and get the speed going, but the XC guys got something new and exciting to prove out there as well. Anytime you start a new season, there are new butterflies and new goals to hit and I think that's the most exciting part of running.
10. Off Events
Think of all the events you run indoors that you almost never run outdoors: 60m, 300m, 500m, 600m, 1000m, 1200m, and 3000m ... just to name a few. I can chase a bunch of new PRs, new events and soft school records. Where would Cas Loxsom be without the 600m? That thing is perfect for his skill set, same really with the 1k for guys like Robby, Nick Symmonds and Ben Malone. And let's face it outdoors who doesn't wish there was a 3k to balance out the 15 and the 5k? Gotta love it.
9. TFCAofGP Huge Medals
A little PA HS knowledge coming here. If you have never run a TFCAofGP meet, I feel sorry for you because you are missing out on getting a huge medal for running 2:05 in a down week at Glenn Mills. Take it from a man who did just that. Those things are frickin enormous!
8. Centennial Conference Indoor Championships
So for those of you not in the Centennial Conference of NCAA athletics, this won't apply. But running at the end of the indoor conference meet is the most unbelievable experience I've had in recent memory. Everybody is cheering and lining the track to the point where the noise practically pushes you around the track by itself. Much better than outdoors, an all-day meet with everyone confined inside makes all the difference for me.
7. Different Tracks
During XC you can never compare course to course with 100% accuracy. It's guess work, guess work that I happen to love, but guess work none the less. The thing that people always told me was that in track every track is essentially the same so you can compare marks from all over the world with near perfect accuracy. But indoor track ain't work like that. And we know that because we have different standards for undersized, oversized, banked, flat, etc. Heck I've seen tracks that are like 234.7m per lap. I run on a 160m track on the reg. It adds a complicating factor to the races and I find that kinda cool.
6. No Class System, all PA
In PA HS, at the state meet there is no PIAA stuff that keeps AA, A, AAA Independent League and all that jazz seperated. There is no debate. A state champ is literally a STATE champ. I think that is extremely awesome. Now you can say what you want about small schools not getting a chance to be involved, especially for relays, but I have always been a fan of crowning state champions and having it mean something. That's what we, thankfully, get indoors.
5. You get real close to your teammates
There is not a lot of space indoors. You end up snuggling up to some people you may not really be that close with. It can be good, it can be bad. Just make sure you don't smell too bad if you are sitting next to anyone important ...
4. No Wind
Sometimes running in the wind and running outside really blows. Haha get it? blows? Any who there isn't wind indoors as you may have guessed.
3. Millrose Games
This is the coolest meet of all of indoors. They bring in top competitors from the world, chase American records and sometimes world records as well. They invite high schoolers for one of the coolest miles of the year. I'm hoping to go this year, certainly an event on my bucket list.
2. Penn State's Indoor Track
I think it's the fastest track in the world that is 200m long. Plus it's where the PA state championships are held. I think it's my favorite track I've ever run on, kinda a shame I won't get to run it again.
1. DMR
Perhaps the greatest event in track and field. Underutilized and maybe under appreciated. It is a great combination of different events, the only time you see the 1200m run, which I find really cool and it's a distance runner's paradise. The only time you see it run competitively is indoors and the Penn Relays. Although the world relay championships are coming outdoors .... I don't think the DMR is on the agenda.
But indoor is not all bad, in some respects, it's probably underrated. So here are my own personal (biased) top 11 reasons to love indoor track.
11. It's the start of track!
Look whether you like XC or not, after a long summer and fall of doing long tempos and big miles, isn't it nice to get out there and run fast? Certain guys are XC guys, others are track guys and those track guys are pumped to get on the track and get the speed going, but the XC guys got something new and exciting to prove out there as well. Anytime you start a new season, there are new butterflies and new goals to hit and I think that's the most exciting part of running.
10. Off Events
Think of all the events you run indoors that you almost never run outdoors: 60m, 300m, 500m, 600m, 1000m, 1200m, and 3000m ... just to name a few. I can chase a bunch of new PRs, new events and soft school records. Where would Cas Loxsom be without the 600m? That thing is perfect for his skill set, same really with the 1k for guys like Robby, Nick Symmonds and Ben Malone. And let's face it outdoors who doesn't wish there was a 3k to balance out the 15 and the 5k? Gotta love it.
9. TFCAofGP Huge Medals
A little PA HS knowledge coming here. If you have never run a TFCAofGP meet, I feel sorry for you because you are missing out on getting a huge medal for running 2:05 in a down week at Glenn Mills. Take it from a man who did just that. Those things are frickin enormous!
8. Centennial Conference Indoor Championships
So for those of you not in the Centennial Conference of NCAA athletics, this won't apply. But running at the end of the indoor conference meet is the most unbelievable experience I've had in recent memory. Everybody is cheering and lining the track to the point where the noise practically pushes you around the track by itself. Much better than outdoors, an all-day meet with everyone confined inside makes all the difference for me.
7. Different Tracks
During XC you can never compare course to course with 100% accuracy. It's guess work, guess work that I happen to love, but guess work none the less. The thing that people always told me was that in track every track is essentially the same so you can compare marks from all over the world with near perfect accuracy. But indoor track ain't work like that. And we know that because we have different standards for undersized, oversized, banked, flat, etc. Heck I've seen tracks that are like 234.7m per lap. I run on a 160m track on the reg. It adds a complicating factor to the races and I find that kinda cool.
6. No Class System, all PA
In PA HS, at the state meet there is no PIAA stuff that keeps AA, A, AAA Independent League and all that jazz seperated. There is no debate. A state champ is literally a STATE champ. I think that is extremely awesome. Now you can say what you want about small schools not getting a chance to be involved, especially for relays, but I have always been a fan of crowning state champions and having it mean something. That's what we, thankfully, get indoors.
5. You get real close to your teammates
There is not a lot of space indoors. You end up snuggling up to some people you may not really be that close with. It can be good, it can be bad. Just make sure you don't smell too bad if you are sitting next to anyone important ...
4. No Wind
Sometimes running in the wind and running outside really blows. Haha get it? blows? Any who there isn't wind indoors as you may have guessed.
3. Millrose Games
This is the coolest meet of all of indoors. They bring in top competitors from the world, chase American records and sometimes world records as well. They invite high schoolers for one of the coolest miles of the year. I'm hoping to go this year, certainly an event on my bucket list.
2. Penn State's Indoor Track
I think it's the fastest track in the world that is 200m long. Plus it's where the PA state championships are held. I think it's my favorite track I've ever run on, kinda a shame I won't get to run it again.
1. DMR
Perhaps the greatest event in track and field. Underutilized and maybe under appreciated. It is a great combination of different events, the only time you see the 1200m run, which I find really cool and it's a distance runner's paradise. The only time you see it run competitively is indoors and the Penn Relays. Although the world relay championships are coming outdoors .... I don't think the DMR is on the agenda.
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