Just a few bullet points to keep an eye as we move towards the biggest meet of indoors. Lots of exciting stuff is going down.
First off, the State College boys are killing it. They now have all four relay members qualified for the state championships and each has run under 1:58.00. That's very impressive and very intimidating for other teams trying to win the 4x8. That being said, does this mean State College is obligated to run all three legs in the open? They all at least have a chance at medaling individually (something like 4 guys in the top 12 converted times in the state), but doubling all 4 of your relay members can leave yourself very vulnerable if O'Hara decides to keep Smart and Belfatto out of the open 8 and save them for a relay title. That being said, if O'Hara goes DMR (an event that I believe is what their team is best fit for, but likely will only run it at Nationals), then State College looks to be a comfortable favorite in the 4x8 and should be able to double their legs in the 8 and 4x8 and still be the favorites to win. Think back to the North Penn team in 2008 for an example.
Also major props to Alex Milligan who qualified for states individually in the mile this weekend. State College is so deep they have a guy on their bench who can run 4:30.9h for the mile, pretty sick stuff.
The State College boys also make things a bit more difficult for Zach Brehm. By my count when you convert his time to 1:57.81 banked for the 800m that puts him 11th in the state. He will need people to pull out from ahead of him and he will need them to put 10 guys in the fast heat. I talked about the potential for Brehm to not get in the fast heat a few posts back, but I think, now that all qualifiers have revealed themselves, he ought to be safe. I expect a few names to pull out of the 800m leaving the door open for a 10 man final that includes Brehm (and also hopefully includes guys like Francis, Logue, Cather, Wiseman, Sauer and Lewis). Also worth noting, Brehm did race this weekend for Carlisle as far as I can tell, despite his team having the potential to either upgrade their relay position with a DMR or 4x8, or he could have upgraded his mile or 800m position in a couple of fast races. Hopefully he is not injured.
37 men have qualified in the 800m, 46 men in the mile! I'm sure lots will pull out from both, but seriously the PTFCA has to consider changing that mile standard. I feel like it is just too easy these days. Henderson could have qualified almost their whole top 7 for the state meet, despite being a team of mostly 2 milers.
Ross Wilson and Kyle Francis made intriguing statements in the mile this weekend. Francis has been a roll as of late, but I really feel like he ought to throw his hat in the 800m ring in a race that will get a lot of guys PRs and probably have one or two down around the 1:51 mark and the state record. Wilson is definitely better suited for the 3k, but he could still be a medalist in the mile and help his relay. He is a selfless guy whose season was cut short indoors by a Footlocker Appearence which usually makes a lot of guys opt mile over 3k (Tarsnane, Furcht, Springer come to mind in recent memory). I would much rather see Wilson in the 3k, but it is looking more and more like the mile.
The 3k is up to 20 names now. They won't be adjusting this field. Thrilled McGoey is in, but Martin racing a lot of 3ks already this season. Deluca quite the opposite, just laying low all year with only two significant races worth noting. Interested to see who's strategy plays out better. Right now I'm leaning towards picking neither of them come states time.
Props to Will Loevner (in the 60s at A states in XC and a 4:31 1600m as a freshman last year) for dropping a bombshell of 8:55 on that field. Nice to see Molino also sneak an SQS in. He has to run a lot of 3ks in a row now, but he is a talent guy so he might be a nice sleeper.
14 DMR teams qualified and GV is the 15th who is literally fractions of a second off the SQS (kind of surprised they didn't try to lower that time, perhaps a little over confident that mark would hold up?)
They may not have to add more teams than that although CB South or WC East would be nice stories. Out of the 14 teams with qualifying times I think just about everyone will compete at this event at states which is bad news for anyone without the time. Here is how I expect to definitely go DMR at states:
Henderson, Altoona, Lower Dauphin, HG Prep, Radnor, GFS, Malvern, CR North, Quakertown, St. Joe's Prep (a total of 10 schools right there)
I also think it is very possible that we could see Bensalem and LaSalle in the event as well. LaSalle ran a nice 4x8 last weekend and that may be an easier double for Bilotta so I think the 4x8 is at the very least equally likely for LaSalle. Bensalem may let Francis try a mile-8 double in which case they might just throw their B squad in the 4x8. However, they also could just easily double Francis back to see what kind of monster anchor leg he could run (or possibly monster 1200m leg, you can't rule that one out).
The only teams I'm relatively sure won't enter are O'Hara and North Penn. I think O'Hara would rather try their luck in the 4x8 with fresh pieces than double guys back for the DMR, but that's just an opinion, I could easily end up being wrong. Meanwhile, North Penn always does the 4x8. ALWAYS. If they pick the DMR I'll be stunned.
So without adding in GV's time (which is not an SQS keep in mind), we are looking at a 10-12 team field. So keep in mind, there is a chance GV does not get in. I think they more than most likely will, but they don't actually have the time and they didn't even try to get faster this weekend. The DMR (before the PTFCA went on a huge adding lots and lots of people spree) used to be strictly the fastest 10 teams, so they shouldn't have a problem with a 10 man field, let alone 12. If I'm Great Valley, I'm sweating at least a tiny bit right now about not getting in. If I'm anybody sitting behind Great Valley, I'm prepping my 4x8 team (if qualified) to go out there and try and take care of business.
Looking ahead:
Lot's of controversy already at the USA indoor track championships, I'm hoping to fill you guys in on the scandal in the near future
Also once the performance list comes out for states there will be lots more to talk about in the HS ranks
Plus some DMR madness in the college ranks leaving the door open for Nova to miss NCAAs!
And the Centennial Conference Championships are coming! One of the best distance conferences in D3 will be on display
Breaking News: MoC Performance List
Preview coming when time allows but here is the link:
http://www.tfcaofgp.org/performancelist.html
http://www.tfcaofgp.org/performancelist.html
USA Championship 1500m
So here is the honest truth of the matter. There is still no word from USATF on if this is going to be a two heat final or they are going to set up a qualifying round (or perhaps they might just even cut the field based on their own discretion, the USATF isn't exactly the most logical of governing bodies sometimes).
It makes it very tough to predict who will win out in a race such as this. If you have a two heat final, you have to throw tactics out the window and just start gunning for the fastest mark. It's very possible a group of the best guys is not going to get out hard enough and our world team ends up being Josh Mcalray and Travis Burkstrand.
When you have assembled a field that includes Rupp, Lomong, Hill, Leer and Mazano (just to name a few) you want to see 2 of those guys sporting the flag overseas.
So I will give you my best bet who I think will win as if they are all running in the same heat. Is this likely? No it's impossible to fit the roughly 20 entrants on the track all at the same time without a fall or push or a Will Leer crying interview afterwards. But I will assume everyone stays up right and we have a typical, tactical championship final. It's my best way to represent this complicated situation with predictions, although it is almost certainly not the real life situation that will unfold (please, USATF, please).
As before, you can find the full list of accepted entries either a few posts down on my blog or on the usatf website. That may help you follow along as I will be picking out a few key names.
Like any race without a rabbit and a title on the line I expect to see a tactical affair over 1500m out in Albuquerque. This combined with the altitude should make for slow times, so really you just throw those out the window and pick who the best racers are. Realistically, the following names are guys with potential to be top 5 in this race:
Galen Rupp, David Torrence, Ryan Hill, Will Leer, Lopez Lomong, Leo Manzano, Riley Masters, Garrett Heath, Patrick Casey, Craig Miller (PA don't play), and Duncan Phillips.
From this group the guys who boast an A standard for the world championships are as follows:
Torrence, Heath, Manzano, Leer and Miller
But I also think, if I understand the rules correctly, anyone who ran sub 3:58.00 last year indoors is also got to go. I think that extends the list to include Lomong, Rupp, and Hill with a chance that Casey and/or Masters got it last year as well (I'd have to check TFRRS to be sure about anything).
I checked, just Casey not Masters for the A standard.
So that may compel some people to push the pace and try and make the race a sub 3:41 type effort. That being said, if it's quick that just plays right into the hands of the guys who have run well under 4 minutes before in their life, so I doubt somebody like David Torrence will be shaking in his boots off fast fractions.
Tentatively, I feel that Phillips, Masters and Miller just aren't quite on the upper echelon of runners. Miller is very, very good but he has never broken through from a "finalist" type to a "contender". He will be in the hunt, and may find a way to squeak out a 3rd or 4th finish if things get crazy, but I doubt see any of these guys being ready to be top 5 in this race.
I really like the roll that both Garrett Heath and Ryan Hill have been on recently. Hill especially. Hill clocked a blazing 7:34 3k putting him #3 on the US AT list behind just Lagat and Rupp. Special group. Meanwhile, Heath has ran some quality miles after a bit of a breakthrough 3:34 performance last spring/summer. He ran a 3:38.89 already indoors (I believe this was en route to his Mile win at the Armory in something around 3:55.
I see Hill as a sleeper type for the win and Heath as a top 5 guy just riding momentum. Hard to pick against some of the savvy vets in this field, but these guys are in my top 5.
Two guys you might be surprised to see me leave out are Leo Manzano and Lopez Lomong. I don't have either of them in my top 5. This is probably stupid for a bunch of reasons. First, these guys have the two best 1500m PBs of anyone in the field (admittedly from a couple years back by now). Secondly, both of them basically ran like garbage all spring/summer last year (no offense) but still managed to have their best races of the season when it counted and get themselves on the world championship team. Unbelievable how that works out sometimes.
That being said, Lopez has looked shaky and injured for a steady couple months now and has been a non factor this indoor season. Leo had a somewhat promising 3:56 showing at Millrose but was still way off the front group. Leo is the streakiest US miler, probably ever, so you never know which Leo will show up at the big meet. He is still unsponsored and that's what worries me. Being unsponsored may be really hurting his training and I think it finally all catches up to him this weekend for the first time in a (somewhat) meaningful race.
Galen Rupp is in my top 5 no doubt. That guy is in absolutely monster shape. Worth noting also is that his rabbit, Taylor Gilland, for each of his recent record assaults is entered in the race at USAs with a 3:58 seed mark. Should be interesting to see if that gives Rupp extra comfort at all after his last mishap in Boston.
Will Leer also is in my top 5. Coming off his 3:52 mark from Millrose he seems on top of his game right now and he has the kick and tactical savvy to perform well in a meet such as this.
Now out of the last two, David Torrence and Patrick Casey, I'm going with the youngster Casey over the established vet in Torrence. I like Torrence a lot as a strong runner, but I think Casey will be more prepared for this race given his recent 3:58 domination up at UW. He is training with a nice group of new and up and coming runners out at OTC and I think we will have a young blood up there mixing it up with some big name pros.
So out of this top 5 how does it shape out? I really like Hill, the guy is clearly very fit and is not afraid of anyone, coming off a battle with a couple of world championship/olympic silver medalists in Boston. He really has the potential to surprise. That being said, I think the 1500m is a bit out of his wheelhouse and he likely will have run the 3k the day before (perhaps he will even end up dropping the 1500m completely if he makes the 3k world team) so for that reason, I don't think he comes out on top.
**Also worth noting the 3k is the day before the 1500m and Rupp, Hill, Leer, Heath, Miller, Lomong Quigley, and Cabral are all names that are slotted down for doubling**
It will be very interesting to see who can bounce back after the 3k the night before, further complicating the picture and leaving room for the upset. I'm not too worried about this top group doubling, but if somebody like Heath or Leer or Hill pulls out of the 3k to focus their efforts more on this event, they could be dangerous (even someone like Miller could seize the opportunity to kick people down on fresh legs if he drops the 3000).
Ultimately, I think 3k or not this is Will Leer's race to lose. He has the best kick and the best qualifying mark by a decent margin. Rupp is strong, but I'm not sure he is quite fast enough. If he tries to run away with it too early, he will be tired for the bell and Leer is fit enough to run at least 3:52 pace with a kick at the end which is probably down around 3:36ish through 1500m. That's very quick. I think Heath is surprising up front, especially if he ditches the 3k, but he won't quite beat out the big names of Leer and Rupp.
If things break right, Casey could be the biggest surprise of them all and sneak even into the top 2 spots. But in all likelihood I just don't see him being on these other guys level right now.
I have:
1. Leer
2. Rupp
3. Heath
4. Hill
5. Casey
6. Manzano
7. Miller
8. Torrence
That whole group could be within 2 seconds or so if one another if things all break right with the top 2 likely pulling away at the end of the race. This race is ripe with spoilers and potential upsets so don't miss out on an exciting distance concluding event this weekend.
It makes it very tough to predict who will win out in a race such as this. If you have a two heat final, you have to throw tactics out the window and just start gunning for the fastest mark. It's very possible a group of the best guys is not going to get out hard enough and our world team ends up being Josh Mcalray and Travis Burkstrand.
When you have assembled a field that includes Rupp, Lomong, Hill, Leer and Mazano (just to name a few) you want to see 2 of those guys sporting the flag overseas.
So I will give you my best bet who I think will win as if they are all running in the same heat. Is this likely? No it's impossible to fit the roughly 20 entrants on the track all at the same time without a fall or push or a Will Leer crying interview afterwards. But I will assume everyone stays up right and we have a typical, tactical championship final. It's my best way to represent this complicated situation with predictions, although it is almost certainly not the real life situation that will unfold (please, USATF, please).
As before, you can find the full list of accepted entries either a few posts down on my blog or on the usatf website. That may help you follow along as I will be picking out a few key names.
Like any race without a rabbit and a title on the line I expect to see a tactical affair over 1500m out in Albuquerque. This combined with the altitude should make for slow times, so really you just throw those out the window and pick who the best racers are. Realistically, the following names are guys with potential to be top 5 in this race:
Galen Rupp, David Torrence, Ryan Hill, Will Leer, Lopez Lomong, Leo Manzano, Riley Masters, Garrett Heath, Patrick Casey, Craig Miller (PA don't play), and Duncan Phillips.
From this group the guys who boast an A standard for the world championships are as follows:
Torrence, Heath, Manzano, Leer and Miller
But I also think, if I understand the rules correctly, anyone who ran sub 3:58.00 last year indoors is also got to go. I think that extends the list to include Lomong, Rupp, and Hill with a chance that Casey and/or Masters got it last year as well (I'd have to check TFRRS to be sure about anything).
I checked, just Casey not Masters for the A standard.
So that may compel some people to push the pace and try and make the race a sub 3:41 type effort. That being said, if it's quick that just plays right into the hands of the guys who have run well under 4 minutes before in their life, so I doubt somebody like David Torrence will be shaking in his boots off fast fractions.
Tentatively, I feel that Phillips, Masters and Miller just aren't quite on the upper echelon of runners. Miller is very, very good but he has never broken through from a "finalist" type to a "contender". He will be in the hunt, and may find a way to squeak out a 3rd or 4th finish if things get crazy, but I doubt see any of these guys being ready to be top 5 in this race.
I really like the roll that both Garrett Heath and Ryan Hill have been on recently. Hill especially. Hill clocked a blazing 7:34 3k putting him #3 on the US AT list behind just Lagat and Rupp. Special group. Meanwhile, Heath has ran some quality miles after a bit of a breakthrough 3:34 performance last spring/summer. He ran a 3:38.89 already indoors (I believe this was en route to his Mile win at the Armory in something around 3:55.
I see Hill as a sleeper type for the win and Heath as a top 5 guy just riding momentum. Hard to pick against some of the savvy vets in this field, but these guys are in my top 5.
Two guys you might be surprised to see me leave out are Leo Manzano and Lopez Lomong. I don't have either of them in my top 5. This is probably stupid for a bunch of reasons. First, these guys have the two best 1500m PBs of anyone in the field (admittedly from a couple years back by now). Secondly, both of them basically ran like garbage all spring/summer last year (no offense) but still managed to have their best races of the season when it counted and get themselves on the world championship team. Unbelievable how that works out sometimes.
That being said, Lopez has looked shaky and injured for a steady couple months now and has been a non factor this indoor season. Leo had a somewhat promising 3:56 showing at Millrose but was still way off the front group. Leo is the streakiest US miler, probably ever, so you never know which Leo will show up at the big meet. He is still unsponsored and that's what worries me. Being unsponsored may be really hurting his training and I think it finally all catches up to him this weekend for the first time in a (somewhat) meaningful race.
Galen Rupp is in my top 5 no doubt. That guy is in absolutely monster shape. Worth noting also is that his rabbit, Taylor Gilland, for each of his recent record assaults is entered in the race at USAs with a 3:58 seed mark. Should be interesting to see if that gives Rupp extra comfort at all after his last mishap in Boston.
Will Leer also is in my top 5. Coming off his 3:52 mark from Millrose he seems on top of his game right now and he has the kick and tactical savvy to perform well in a meet such as this.
Now out of the last two, David Torrence and Patrick Casey, I'm going with the youngster Casey over the established vet in Torrence. I like Torrence a lot as a strong runner, but I think Casey will be more prepared for this race given his recent 3:58 domination up at UW. He is training with a nice group of new and up and coming runners out at OTC and I think we will have a young blood up there mixing it up with some big name pros.
So out of this top 5 how does it shape out? I really like Hill, the guy is clearly very fit and is not afraid of anyone, coming off a battle with a couple of world championship/olympic silver medalists in Boston. He really has the potential to surprise. That being said, I think the 1500m is a bit out of his wheelhouse and he likely will have run the 3k the day before (perhaps he will even end up dropping the 1500m completely if he makes the 3k world team) so for that reason, I don't think he comes out on top.
**Also worth noting the 3k is the day before the 1500m and Rupp, Hill, Leer, Heath, Miller, Lomong Quigley, and Cabral are all names that are slotted down for doubling**
It will be very interesting to see who can bounce back after the 3k the night before, further complicating the picture and leaving room for the upset. I'm not too worried about this top group doubling, but if somebody like Heath or Leer or Hill pulls out of the 3k to focus their efforts more on this event, they could be dangerous (even someone like Miller could seize the opportunity to kick people down on fresh legs if he drops the 3000).
Ultimately, I think 3k or not this is Will Leer's race to lose. He has the best kick and the best qualifying mark by a decent margin. Rupp is strong, but I'm not sure he is quite fast enough. If he tries to run away with it too early, he will be tired for the bell and Leer is fit enough to run at least 3:52 pace with a kick at the end which is probably down around 3:36ish through 1500m. That's very quick. I think Heath is surprising up front, especially if he ditches the 3k, but he won't quite beat out the big names of Leer and Rupp.
If things break right, Casey could be the biggest surprise of them all and sneak even into the top 2 spots. But in all likelihood I just don't see him being on these other guys level right now.
I have:
1. Leer
2. Rupp
3. Heath
4. Hill
5. Casey
6. Manzano
7. Miller
8. Torrence
That whole group could be within 2 seconds or so if one another if things all break right with the top 2 likely pulling away at the end of the race. This race is ripe with spoilers and potential upsets so don't miss out on an exciting distance concluding event this weekend.
Big Names Still Left To Qualify
Here is a quick list of some of the key names that I didn't see on the performance list for states as of my last look through. Hopefully these guys can find a meet this upcoming weekend and jump in somewhere. If anyone has heard anything feel free to post it below.
Also the TFCAofGP performance list is due out in the near future, so I should be able to get a Meet of Champs Preview up at some point in the slightly after that near future. Still planning on finishing up my USA Champs previews as well, got two left to go on that one.
Anyway names to keep an eye out for:
Colin Abert in the 3k? I think he should do it, but he seems bent on being a mile guy this year and just ran a big invite last weekend
Aaron Gebhardt in the 3k? Not too many district 3 teams racing and his opportunity indoors likely just won't happen
Jeff Van Kooten in the distance events? Not sure what his specialty is but his brother was an excellent track runner in the 16 and 3k so if the WPIAL can get a meet of champs in he is a darkhorse
Anybody with a North Allegheny Jersey in a distance event? McGoey is the big name here, he needs to be in this 3k field because he is a big up and coming talent, but odds are we won't get that lucky
Griffin Molino in the mile? He just tried his hand at the 3k and couldn't quite get there, if he can find a meet to hop into and get the easier mile SQS that would be really cool, he is a great talent to have at the state meet
Zach Seiger or Jacob Connors? Haven't seen a sniff of them, but again if you're a D3 guy it's hard to find quality indoor meets
Dominic Hucklebury? Jeremy Parsons? Bryce England? They are all small school guys so they don't have a lot of big race opportunities throughout the indoor season, but if they hop in one somewhere they are dangerous
Sam Webb or Ethan Martin? Any chance these guys will be back from their injuries this indoor campaign? I doubt it at this point, but it would be exciting to see them come back last minute like Chaborek last year for Henderson
Matt Kazanjian, Josh Smith, Dave Fowler, Colin McDonald, Gunnar Sjoreen, Brian Arita, Eric Diestelow, Dan Shalala, Alexander Balla? These guys are all sub 16 5k guys running in District One without an individual SQS mark that I can see looking over the list and most, if not all are likely to be in the meet of champs meet this weekend hunting for a spot. Conestoga has the horses to do something cool in the relays, they were a pleasant surprise in XC
Henderson guy? Any way they will squeeze a few more events out of a few more guys? 3k at all? Doesn't appear to be the case, but you always have to be on the look out
Scott Mason ran 9:00.24 in the 3k. That time will get in if they add anyone at all to the field, but hey they might not. So maybe Mason is one last guy to consider at MOC.
I'm sure there are plenty of names that I forgot or facts that I overlooked so feel free to let me know below.
Also the TFCAofGP performance list is due out in the near future, so I should be able to get a Meet of Champs Preview up at some point in the slightly after that near future. Still planning on finishing up my USA Champs previews as well, got two left to go on that one.
Anyway names to keep an eye out for:
Colin Abert in the 3k? I think he should do it, but he seems bent on being a mile guy this year and just ran a big invite last weekend
Aaron Gebhardt in the 3k? Not too many district 3 teams racing and his opportunity indoors likely just won't happen
Jeff Van Kooten in the distance events? Not sure what his specialty is but his brother was an excellent track runner in the 16 and 3k so if the WPIAL can get a meet of champs in he is a darkhorse
Anybody with a North Allegheny Jersey in a distance event? McGoey is the big name here, he needs to be in this 3k field because he is a big up and coming talent, but odds are we won't get that lucky
Griffin Molino in the mile? He just tried his hand at the 3k and couldn't quite get there, if he can find a meet to hop into and get the easier mile SQS that would be really cool, he is a great talent to have at the state meet
Zach Seiger or Jacob Connors? Haven't seen a sniff of them, but again if you're a D3 guy it's hard to find quality indoor meets
Dominic Hucklebury? Jeremy Parsons? Bryce England? They are all small school guys so they don't have a lot of big race opportunities throughout the indoor season, but if they hop in one somewhere they are dangerous
Sam Webb or Ethan Martin? Any chance these guys will be back from their injuries this indoor campaign? I doubt it at this point, but it would be exciting to see them come back last minute like Chaborek last year for Henderson
Matt Kazanjian, Josh Smith, Dave Fowler, Colin McDonald, Gunnar Sjoreen, Brian Arita, Eric Diestelow, Dan Shalala, Alexander Balla? These guys are all sub 16 5k guys running in District One without an individual SQS mark that I can see looking over the list and most, if not all are likely to be in the meet of champs meet this weekend hunting for a spot. Conestoga has the horses to do something cool in the relays, they were a pleasant surprise in XC
Henderson guy? Any way they will squeeze a few more events out of a few more guys? 3k at all? Doesn't appear to be the case, but you always have to be on the look out
Scott Mason ran 9:00.24 in the 3k. That time will get in if they add anyone at all to the field, but hey they might not. So maybe Mason is one last guy to consider at MOC.
I'm sure there are plenty of names that I forgot or facts that I overlooked so feel free to let me know below.
USA Champs Men's 800m
As a friendly reminder you can see the full list of entries either on www.usatf.com or on my post a couple spots down previewing the event.
Based on my research up to this point, I see no signs of a performance list for the event, so this will be highly speculative writing going on for the next couple paragraphs. I'd love to hear other opinions or comments below if you have time to throw something down.
So let's get into predicting shall we!
Last year's results indicate that they will take 6 athletes to the 800m final from a field of what looks like 3 heats of 6-7 (there are a total of 20 entrants, but I'm not sure all will stay entered if they have qualified in other events they would rather run). The final a year ago featured Erik Sowinski (1st), Robby Andrews (2nd) and Tyler Mulder (3rd) who were all under 1:47.5. In order to qualify for the world championships, you must finish in the top 2 of the runners who have the World A Standard (1:47.00 or 1:44.00 last outdoors).
So briefly scanning the entries the following men enter the race with the A standard already in their back pocket: Sowinski, Rutt, Symmonds (outdoors), and Gagnon. Anybody else who wants to punch their ticket to Sopot (city in Poland where World Indoors will be held), better run under 1:47 this weekend at the US champs meet. In other words, if my boy Robby wants to go, he better stick his nose in this one.
Looking down the list of entries, I'd say there is only a select group of guys I could see making the final based on a combination of talent, experience and tactical savvy. The names I have in mind right now are in order by season best:
1. Mike Rutt
2. Erik Sowinski
3. Brian Gagnon
4. Robby Andrews
5. James Gilreath
6. Nick Symmonds
7. Harun Abda
8. Mark Wierzoreck
9. Mark Husted
10. Casmir Loxsom
11. Tyler Mulder
12. Nick Guarino
(Worth noting, Guarino and Waterman are D3 guys mixing it up on the Pro Level, PA's Owen Dawson is listed to compete and Richard Jones was the lead off leg of the recent world record 4x8, I also left him off the list)
Only half of these guys can make the final, and some of them will have their changes seriously damaged depending on which heat they land in. Based on the way the times are spread out it's conceivable to see some type of Rutt, Symmonds, Mulder heat or something like, which would make it a real challenge for anyone else to bust through. There will be one auto qualifier from each heat and 3 total at large bids to the final.
Without knowledge of the heats, you can only do some careful guess work about who has the smarts to make it to Sunday in one piece. Symmonds, Sowinski and Rutt are my three guys I would be stunned to see miss the final. I recently talked about how well Sowinski and Rutt have been running as of late and I don't see their momentum suddenly dropping off.
Rutt has excellent indoor credentials including a second place finish at NCAAs and he made a world championship final in the 800m a few years back. Meanwhile, Sowinski is the US leader at 800m and 1000m this season, with a 600m USR and 4x800m WR on his resume. If these guys stay on their feet and off the rail (ahem, Nick Willis, ahem) then they will be one step closer to Poland.
Symmonds is the most talented guy in the field by a long shot. He has a 1:42 PR and only two other guys have ever broken 1:45 before (Mulder and Andrews). But Symmonds is not known for his strong running indoors. He has put an emphasis on it this season as his one man hype machine has looked to put the Brooks guys on the map, but is this just all talk or serious plans? Symmonds wants the AR outdoors in the 800m so he isn't going to waste peak form on Albuquerque. That being said, the man has self respect and competitiveness. He has gotten it handed to him twice now during his last two marquee races and I doubt he wants to let these guys get the best of him again if he can help it. He is tactically sound, very experience and just flat out faster than everybody else. I expect him in the final.
Three spots left, who has what it takes to lock one up?
Well there is the relative no name guys (Husted, Gilreath, Guarino)
The recent grad 600m specialists (Loxsom, Abda)
The almost big names (Gagnon, Wizzo)
And the bigger names (Andrews, Mulder)
Husted made this list because he skated into the final last year on time in a heat led by Mulder and Sowinski. He can get lucky again, but I doubt you will see him in. Guarino was 7th last year and just missed cracking the top spot. He has been steadily improving, but his PBs don't suggest he belongs in a final like this, he is also out. Abda is a bit of a long shot. He has the talent to be a real factor in this kind of race, he has run around 1:16 for 600m, but ultimately, he hasn't shown superior fitness this season and was never a star at championship races. So Abda is also out for me.
Gilreath comes in at 1:48.20, giving him a faster seed time than even Nick Symmonds. But Gilreath is a relative unknown and perhaps a bit out of his league at this time. I won't put his changes at 0, but I still won't quite jump on the bandwagon.
This leaves me with my big 5 of Loxsom, Gagnon, Wizzo, Andrews and Mulder.
Here's the thing, Andrews has the talent and the speed to kick somebody down and make a final. But the only way he is making a final. He won't be the one to push the pace and he very easily can mistime his jump and end up a few ticks of the last guys in on time. Andrews has super nice upside, but as a betting man I have to go against my fan biases here and pick against him to get in. Way too much risk for a guy like this on an indoor track.
Meanwhile, Andrews' partner Brian Gagnon is doing work this year. He did a nice pace job at Millrose, ran a nice leg on the 4x8 for NJNY and is one of the few guys sitting their with the A standard. He is comfortable at a fast pace and he will go for it out on the track. I think this guy has great odds of getting in on time, so I'm on the bandwagon hardcore. I have both UCONN guys in my final.
Down to 2 spots left and 3 guys to pick from.
I'll make this first part easy to build up the drama. Mulder is in. 1:44 PR, the final last year, not afraid of an pace and consistently performs at the top level. Congrats Tyler.
Which means I can only pick one Brooks guy! Ouch this is tough. A year ago, I definitely would have had Wizzo over Cas. Cas was a time trialing fiend, but he didn't have any sort of luck getting through rounds and making finals. But last year we saw a new Cas Loxsom. He finished the year with 2 hard fought second places and ran some nice rounds at USAs before just missing the final (a very talented final keep in mind). Cas also had a very quick split recently trying to make up Matt Sherer ground.
But that argument seems kinda flawed because so did Wizzo.
Wizzo has been at the top a bit longer than Cas and has been racing the pros longer than Cas as well. He certainly has an edge in experience and even beat Cas the last time the two raced head to head in a Brooks only 800m led by Symmonds. But does Wizzo have the firepower to mix it up off any pace and grab a time qualifer?
This is my toughest pick of the bunch, but I'm taking Cas narrowly. I think at the very least, Cas will help keep the pace quick and that should help him sneak in with one of the last spots in the final.
Cool, now we have a final: Rutt, Gagnon, Sowinski, Mulder, Symmonds and Loxsom
In the final, I think things will stay at least reasonably quick. Sowinski and Mulder should be out front, Mulder needs the standard so he will have a vested interest in keeping it quick. Loxsom, too I'd imagine won't be afraid to get up in the mix. This leaves Rutt and Symmonds licking their chops in the back with big time kicks and Gagnon somewhere in the middle (not really sure if he has a signature racing style). With 200m to go, Sowinski should be at the front looking to drive for home like he did a year ago. If Symmonds is on his game, he and Rutt will be trailing just behind, moving ahead of a fading Mulder and Loxsom.
On the last lap it will be another close battle between Sowinski and Rutt/Symmonds, both of whom remember the last time he just barely beat them out. Can Sowinski continue to edge out these guys, or will they get their revenge? Part of me feels like the revenge factor is too sweet to pass on, but Sowinski's winning streak and defending champion status make him fairly enticing in this spot.
In the end, I'll call it this way:
Sowinski 1:46.88
Rutt 1:46.90
Symmonds 1:47.01
Gagnon 1:47.20
Mulder 1:47.57
Loxsom 1:48.12
Based on my research up to this point, I see no signs of a performance list for the event, so this will be highly speculative writing going on for the next couple paragraphs. I'd love to hear other opinions or comments below if you have time to throw something down.
So let's get into predicting shall we!
Last year's results indicate that they will take 6 athletes to the 800m final from a field of what looks like 3 heats of 6-7 (there are a total of 20 entrants, but I'm not sure all will stay entered if they have qualified in other events they would rather run). The final a year ago featured Erik Sowinski (1st), Robby Andrews (2nd) and Tyler Mulder (3rd) who were all under 1:47.5. In order to qualify for the world championships, you must finish in the top 2 of the runners who have the World A Standard (1:47.00 or 1:44.00 last outdoors).
So briefly scanning the entries the following men enter the race with the A standard already in their back pocket: Sowinski, Rutt, Symmonds (outdoors), and Gagnon. Anybody else who wants to punch their ticket to Sopot (city in Poland where World Indoors will be held), better run under 1:47 this weekend at the US champs meet. In other words, if my boy Robby wants to go, he better stick his nose in this one.
Looking down the list of entries, I'd say there is only a select group of guys I could see making the final based on a combination of talent, experience and tactical savvy. The names I have in mind right now are in order by season best:
1. Mike Rutt
2. Erik Sowinski
3. Brian Gagnon
4. Robby Andrews
5. James Gilreath
6. Nick Symmonds
7. Harun Abda
8. Mark Wierzoreck
9. Mark Husted
10. Casmir Loxsom
11. Tyler Mulder
12. Nick Guarino
(Worth noting, Guarino and Waterman are D3 guys mixing it up on the Pro Level, PA's Owen Dawson is listed to compete and Richard Jones was the lead off leg of the recent world record 4x8, I also left him off the list)
Only half of these guys can make the final, and some of them will have their changes seriously damaged depending on which heat they land in. Based on the way the times are spread out it's conceivable to see some type of Rutt, Symmonds, Mulder heat or something like, which would make it a real challenge for anyone else to bust through. There will be one auto qualifier from each heat and 3 total at large bids to the final.
Without knowledge of the heats, you can only do some careful guess work about who has the smarts to make it to Sunday in one piece. Symmonds, Sowinski and Rutt are my three guys I would be stunned to see miss the final. I recently talked about how well Sowinski and Rutt have been running as of late and I don't see their momentum suddenly dropping off.
Rutt has excellent indoor credentials including a second place finish at NCAAs and he made a world championship final in the 800m a few years back. Meanwhile, Sowinski is the US leader at 800m and 1000m this season, with a 600m USR and 4x800m WR on his resume. If these guys stay on their feet and off the rail (ahem, Nick Willis, ahem) then they will be one step closer to Poland.
Symmonds is the most talented guy in the field by a long shot. He has a 1:42 PR and only two other guys have ever broken 1:45 before (Mulder and Andrews). But Symmonds is not known for his strong running indoors. He has put an emphasis on it this season as his one man hype machine has looked to put the Brooks guys on the map, but is this just all talk or serious plans? Symmonds wants the AR outdoors in the 800m so he isn't going to waste peak form on Albuquerque. That being said, the man has self respect and competitiveness. He has gotten it handed to him twice now during his last two marquee races and I doubt he wants to let these guys get the best of him again if he can help it. He is tactically sound, very experience and just flat out faster than everybody else. I expect him in the final.
Three spots left, who has what it takes to lock one up?
Well there is the relative no name guys (Husted, Gilreath, Guarino)
The recent grad 600m specialists (Loxsom, Abda)
The almost big names (Gagnon, Wizzo)
And the bigger names (Andrews, Mulder)
Husted made this list because he skated into the final last year on time in a heat led by Mulder and Sowinski. He can get lucky again, but I doubt you will see him in. Guarino was 7th last year and just missed cracking the top spot. He has been steadily improving, but his PBs don't suggest he belongs in a final like this, he is also out. Abda is a bit of a long shot. He has the talent to be a real factor in this kind of race, he has run around 1:16 for 600m, but ultimately, he hasn't shown superior fitness this season and was never a star at championship races. So Abda is also out for me.
Gilreath comes in at 1:48.20, giving him a faster seed time than even Nick Symmonds. But Gilreath is a relative unknown and perhaps a bit out of his league at this time. I won't put his changes at 0, but I still won't quite jump on the bandwagon.
This leaves me with my big 5 of Loxsom, Gagnon, Wizzo, Andrews and Mulder.
Here's the thing, Andrews has the talent and the speed to kick somebody down and make a final. But the only way he is making a final. He won't be the one to push the pace and he very easily can mistime his jump and end up a few ticks of the last guys in on time. Andrews has super nice upside, but as a betting man I have to go against my fan biases here and pick against him to get in. Way too much risk for a guy like this on an indoor track.
Meanwhile, Andrews' partner Brian Gagnon is doing work this year. He did a nice pace job at Millrose, ran a nice leg on the 4x8 for NJNY and is one of the few guys sitting their with the A standard. He is comfortable at a fast pace and he will go for it out on the track. I think this guy has great odds of getting in on time, so I'm on the bandwagon hardcore. I have both UCONN guys in my final.
Down to 2 spots left and 3 guys to pick from.
I'll make this first part easy to build up the drama. Mulder is in. 1:44 PR, the final last year, not afraid of an pace and consistently performs at the top level. Congrats Tyler.
Which means I can only pick one Brooks guy! Ouch this is tough. A year ago, I definitely would have had Wizzo over Cas. Cas was a time trialing fiend, but he didn't have any sort of luck getting through rounds and making finals. But last year we saw a new Cas Loxsom. He finished the year with 2 hard fought second places and ran some nice rounds at USAs before just missing the final (a very talented final keep in mind). Cas also had a very quick split recently trying to make up Matt Sherer ground.
But that argument seems kinda flawed because so did Wizzo.
Wizzo has been at the top a bit longer than Cas and has been racing the pros longer than Cas as well. He certainly has an edge in experience and even beat Cas the last time the two raced head to head in a Brooks only 800m led by Symmonds. But does Wizzo have the firepower to mix it up off any pace and grab a time qualifer?
This is my toughest pick of the bunch, but I'm taking Cas narrowly. I think at the very least, Cas will help keep the pace quick and that should help him sneak in with one of the last spots in the final.
Cool, now we have a final: Rutt, Gagnon, Sowinski, Mulder, Symmonds and Loxsom
In the final, I think things will stay at least reasonably quick. Sowinski and Mulder should be out front, Mulder needs the standard so he will have a vested interest in keeping it quick. Loxsom, too I'd imagine won't be afraid to get up in the mix. This leaves Rutt and Symmonds licking their chops in the back with big time kicks and Gagnon somewhere in the middle (not really sure if he has a signature racing style). With 200m to go, Sowinski should be at the front looking to drive for home like he did a year ago. If Symmonds is on his game, he and Rutt will be trailing just behind, moving ahead of a fading Mulder and Loxsom.
On the last lap it will be another close battle between Sowinski and Rutt/Symmonds, both of whom remember the last time he just barely beat them out. Can Sowinski continue to edge out these guys, or will they get their revenge? Part of me feels like the revenge factor is too sweet to pass on, but Sowinski's winning streak and defending champion status make him fairly enticing in this spot.
In the end, I'll call it this way:
Sowinski 1:46.88
Rutt 1:46.90
Symmonds 1:47.01
Gagnon 1:47.20
Mulder 1:47.57
Loxsom 1:48.12
The 3k: Unfairly Underrated
Anyone know what Max Norris ran before he dominated the indoor state championships with his 8:28 bombshell of a 3k? 8:48 and 4:26. The 4:26 came in a stacked field at Lehigh, the 8:48 came in the early season against fellow state medalist Dan Savage, fresh off XC fitness.
What has Dominic Deluca done this season? Well I'll tell you one thing, his resume is much more impressive. Deluca dropped a 4:22 to dominate against stud miler Sam Ritz in Deluca's off event. He also dropped an early season 8:44 in another impressive victory over Cole Nissley. Deluca is coming off a season that featured a AA state XC title and has carried his momentum onto flat tracks with little competition for him. He has not yet been pushed to his max ability this season and at states, I think low 8:30s is certainly possible.
Especially when he will be dealing with Colin Martin.
Sure Ethan grabbed headlines last year by rocketing an 8:33 indoors for 2nd place at states and dropping a nice kick outdoors to grab the state title in brutal conditions, but this year has been Colin's year. He had a very strong XC season, finishing with a 12th place finish at the Footlocker Regional, almost making him a surprise Footlocker Finalist. Now Colin has opened up with a dominating 3k win and a stunning 9:13 3200m! 9:13 for 3200m! This is worth about 8:36 for 3k (the state will seed him down around 8:38 because their conversion system is kind of wrong, but it is easy to understand). Nobody, not even super star Tony Russell was in 8:36 shape before the state championship.
Put Martin and Deluca against each other and you got yourself a very interesting race up front. That isn't even accounting for the likes of Ross Wilson (one of the most impressive long distnace race stretches of all time last spring), Kevin James (1:56 to-8:57 range already this indoors and he is still getting back) and newcomers to the top notch group in Patrick Reilly, Paul Power, Chris Cummings, Christian Kardish, and Jake Brophy.
And I still believe more guys will punch qualifying tickets between now and the state championship at Meet of Champs and TSTCA Championships (if they can somehow manage to get that meet together, we can't leave the NA guys at home if we can help it).
But even without the extra qualifiers, we have 16 guys under the SQS this year and only a few of those names won't try their hand at it. Kevin James probably won't run because of his relay obligations. There is a chance Wilson will try the mile, but he is significantly better off at 3000m and I think he should stay there. Christian Kardish will likely drop because of his DMR anchor duties. Kazanjian may pull out in favor of the 4x8. Bilotta is almost certain to go mile-DMR double as well.
Beyond that I don't see anyone for whom it makes sense to jump ship. So worse case scenario we are looking at 11 guys (much more likely to be something like 13) which is a perfectly acceptable field in my mind.
Last year, I think the fan base got a little spoiled thanks to a truly exceptional field at the state championships. Last year it took 8:42 to medal! That's crazy talk right there! 16 guys broke 9 minutes in the race with 9 under 8:50.
2012 took 8:57 to medal and 8:39 to win
2011 took 8:58 to medal and 8:46 got 3rd
2010 took 8:49 to medal and 8:38 to win, just one guy was under 8:42
2009 took 9:02 to medal and 8:44 got you 3rd
So for 4 straight years before 2013, there were a TOTAL of 6 guys under 8:42! Last year we had 8 in one race!
We are spoiled people, just straight spoiled. This year's crop is much more likely to look like a better up front version of the 2010 meet, which up until last year was one of the deepest 3ks of the decade (for the record 2008 was fairly strong with 8:53 being the final medal spot and 5 guys under 8:42).
So yeah maybe this race doesn't appear to have the big superstar name, but Dominic Deluca and Colin Martin are two guys on the verge of super stardom. Ross Wilson and Kevin James are probably 2-3 on my list of long distance guys in the state behind Russell in terms of potential to run the fastest 3200m of the year in PA. And might I just say that Jake Brophy is a straight beast. Let him hang around and he might go ahead and blow someone's doors off at the end. He very well might be the guy to win the darn thing as just a sophomore. Then we will forever remember this meet as his coming out party.
Reilly, Marston, Cummings, Kardish, Power, Comber, Nissley and Kazanjian have XC performances that indicate sub 8:50 is very possible for the whole bunch. Already I'm looking at a field of 10 guys under 8:50. That isn't even including the likes of McDevitt, Pearlman and Bilotta.
And oh yeah, I bet there are still a slew of guys knocking on the door trying to come in.
I'm sorry folks, but a field of about 10 sub 8:50 guys is not only impressive, it is the deepest 3k in state history. We may not see sub 8:30 at states (although I'm not ready to guarentee that at this moment in time if someone is willing to keep the pace fast), but I think when all is said and done the 3k will prove to be anything but a snooze fest.
What has Dominic Deluca done this season? Well I'll tell you one thing, his resume is much more impressive. Deluca dropped a 4:22 to dominate against stud miler Sam Ritz in Deluca's off event. He also dropped an early season 8:44 in another impressive victory over Cole Nissley. Deluca is coming off a season that featured a AA state XC title and has carried his momentum onto flat tracks with little competition for him. He has not yet been pushed to his max ability this season and at states, I think low 8:30s is certainly possible.
Especially when he will be dealing with Colin Martin.
Sure Ethan grabbed headlines last year by rocketing an 8:33 indoors for 2nd place at states and dropping a nice kick outdoors to grab the state title in brutal conditions, but this year has been Colin's year. He had a very strong XC season, finishing with a 12th place finish at the Footlocker Regional, almost making him a surprise Footlocker Finalist. Now Colin has opened up with a dominating 3k win and a stunning 9:13 3200m! 9:13 for 3200m! This is worth about 8:36 for 3k (the state will seed him down around 8:38 because their conversion system is kind of wrong, but it is easy to understand). Nobody, not even super star Tony Russell was in 8:36 shape before the state championship.
Put Martin and Deluca against each other and you got yourself a very interesting race up front. That isn't even accounting for the likes of Ross Wilson (one of the most impressive long distnace race stretches of all time last spring), Kevin James (1:56 to-8:57 range already this indoors and he is still getting back) and newcomers to the top notch group in Patrick Reilly, Paul Power, Chris Cummings, Christian Kardish, and Jake Brophy.
And I still believe more guys will punch qualifying tickets between now and the state championship at Meet of Champs and TSTCA Championships (if they can somehow manage to get that meet together, we can't leave the NA guys at home if we can help it).
But even without the extra qualifiers, we have 16 guys under the SQS this year and only a few of those names won't try their hand at it. Kevin James probably won't run because of his relay obligations. There is a chance Wilson will try the mile, but he is significantly better off at 3000m and I think he should stay there. Christian Kardish will likely drop because of his DMR anchor duties. Kazanjian may pull out in favor of the 4x8. Bilotta is almost certain to go mile-DMR double as well.
Beyond that I don't see anyone for whom it makes sense to jump ship. So worse case scenario we are looking at 11 guys (much more likely to be something like 13) which is a perfectly acceptable field in my mind.
Last year, I think the fan base got a little spoiled thanks to a truly exceptional field at the state championships. Last year it took 8:42 to medal! That's crazy talk right there! 16 guys broke 9 minutes in the race with 9 under 8:50.
2012 took 8:57 to medal and 8:39 to win
2011 took 8:58 to medal and 8:46 got 3rd
2010 took 8:49 to medal and 8:38 to win, just one guy was under 8:42
2009 took 9:02 to medal and 8:44 got you 3rd
So for 4 straight years before 2013, there were a TOTAL of 6 guys under 8:42! Last year we had 8 in one race!
We are spoiled people, just straight spoiled. This year's crop is much more likely to look like a better up front version of the 2010 meet, which up until last year was one of the deepest 3ks of the decade (for the record 2008 was fairly strong with 8:53 being the final medal spot and 5 guys under 8:42).
So yeah maybe this race doesn't appear to have the big superstar name, but Dominic Deluca and Colin Martin are two guys on the verge of super stardom. Ross Wilson and Kevin James are probably 2-3 on my list of long distance guys in the state behind Russell in terms of potential to run the fastest 3200m of the year in PA. And might I just say that Jake Brophy is a straight beast. Let him hang around and he might go ahead and blow someone's doors off at the end. He very well might be the guy to win the darn thing as just a sophomore. Then we will forever remember this meet as his coming out party.
Reilly, Marston, Cummings, Kardish, Power, Comber, Nissley and Kazanjian have XC performances that indicate sub 8:50 is very possible for the whole bunch. Already I'm looking at a field of 10 guys under 8:50. That isn't even including the likes of McDevitt, Pearlman and Bilotta.
And oh yeah, I bet there are still a slew of guys knocking on the door trying to come in.
I'm sorry folks, but a field of about 10 sub 8:50 guys is not only impressive, it is the deepest 3k in state history. We may not see sub 8:30 at states (although I'm not ready to guarentee that at this moment in time if someone is willing to keep the pace fast), but I think when all is said and done the 3k will prove to be anything but a snooze fest.
Wisconsin, Oreos, and giannis antetokounmpo
Right now I'm sitting in my dorm, finished up with night class typing on my phone because my laptop is broken watching the bucks play the magic on league pass. I've spent a solid hour plus reading grantland and my writing idol Bill Simmons so logically I flipped on to the blog and decided to just type out like old times.
Do I know what I'm about to write about? No idea. Is it likely that I'm going to make a ton of type-o s? Incredibly so. But I love this stuff and so I will ramble away for anybody who wants to listen. Or read or whatever.
I've had a craving all night for the new cookie dough Oreos. It's like a combination of all my favorite things. Cookie dough and Oreos. And being a sucker for new ideas designed to appeal to the masses. I'm not quite cynical enough to consider the fact that such a brilliant idea may not have been introduced yet because ... Well ... It's actually not that good.
This optimism is mirrored in my bucks vs magic game. I'm a sixers fan and I want the first overall pick. Ideally both the magic and bucks win tonight but they can't both win. That being said, one of them has to win. And the sixers already lost tonight. Just give us Julius randle now baby!
I think you have to be optimistic if you are going to be a runner. Every time you step on the line you are willing putting yourself in a position where if you do things right, you puke and feel like garbage for hours. I did extra drills today for an entire hour in hopes of dropping a second or two in a month or two. Goodness gracious to somebody else that probably sounds pretty darn depressing.
But this is what I do, this is what I love. So even though I'm waking up at 7:30 tomorrow on a day I don't have any class, I'm pretty excited to go do a workout in lane 4 of a 160m indoor track. I like getting out there and finding something new to drive me and motivate me and keep me coming back.
I've thought about quitting in lots of things and running is no exception. It can be frustrating at times without a doubt. But I always come back. I never really go through with it. Heck I can't even stay away from blogging about running for a month without craving more. It's an addiction and I'm not going to rehab. No no no.
Yeah I'm sorry I regret making that joke, not my best stuff.
So ultimately I'm running my last regular season indoor race I will ever run on Saturday at haverford. I'm gonna live in the moment and even when I get knocked around (like last week at ursinus) I'm gonna stay optimistic.
In the end it's just another race. Let's face it, I'm not quitting any time soon ....
Now back to the important issues .... can we get those Oreos?
Do I know what I'm about to write about? No idea. Is it likely that I'm going to make a ton of type-o s? Incredibly so. But I love this stuff and so I will ramble away for anybody who wants to listen. Or read or whatever.
I've had a craving all night for the new cookie dough Oreos. It's like a combination of all my favorite things. Cookie dough and Oreos. And being a sucker for new ideas designed to appeal to the masses. I'm not quite cynical enough to consider the fact that such a brilliant idea may not have been introduced yet because ... Well ... It's actually not that good.
This optimism is mirrored in my bucks vs magic game. I'm a sixers fan and I want the first overall pick. Ideally both the magic and bucks win tonight but they can't both win. That being said, one of them has to win. And the sixers already lost tonight. Just give us Julius randle now baby!
I think you have to be optimistic if you are going to be a runner. Every time you step on the line you are willing putting yourself in a position where if you do things right, you puke and feel like garbage for hours. I did extra drills today for an entire hour in hopes of dropping a second or two in a month or two. Goodness gracious to somebody else that probably sounds pretty darn depressing.
But this is what I do, this is what I love. So even though I'm waking up at 7:30 tomorrow on a day I don't have any class, I'm pretty excited to go do a workout in lane 4 of a 160m indoor track. I like getting out there and finding something new to drive me and motivate me and keep me coming back.
I've thought about quitting in lots of things and running is no exception. It can be frustrating at times without a doubt. But I always come back. I never really go through with it. Heck I can't even stay away from blogging about running for a month without craving more. It's an addiction and I'm not going to rehab. No no no.
Yeah I'm sorry I regret making that joke, not my best stuff.
So ultimately I'm running my last regular season indoor race I will ever run on Saturday at haverford. I'm gonna live in the moment and even when I get knocked around (like last week at ursinus) I'm gonna stay optimistic.
In the end it's just another race. Let's face it, I'm not quitting any time soon ....
Now back to the important issues .... can we get those Oreos?
USA Indoor World Championship Qualifying Meet
I'll likely be doing a preview later in the week, but I'm going to list off the schedule and entries below for the distance events. You can find the full list of entrants at www.usatf.org.
Worth noting, there are no guarentees all of these fields will hold up, the USATF website says they want to have 12 guys in a one heat final of the 1500m, 16 in the 3k and 20 total in the 800m prelims. That means there are going to have to be cuts almost across the board or qualifying heats.
1500m (Final 2/23 2:22 MST)
3000m (Final 2/22 3:47 MST)
(Craig Miller may be a late entry in both the 3k and/or the 1500 as he is qualified among the top few runners)
800m (Round 1 2/22 2:25 MST, Final 2/23 1:33 MST)
Worth noting, there are no guarentees all of these fields will hold up, the USATF website says they want to have 12 guys in a one heat final of the 1500m, 16 in the 3k and 20 total in the 800m prelims. That means there are going to have to be cuts almost across the board or qualifying heats.
1500m (Final 2/23 2:22 MST)
| Garrett Heath | Brooks | 3:38.89 | qualified | declared |
| William Leer | Nike | 3:52.47 | qualified | declared |
| Leonel Manzano | 3:56.73 | qualified | declared | |
| Duncan Phillips | 3:58.01 | qualified | declared | |
| Pat Casey | 3:58.06 | qualified | declared | |
| Riley Masters | Brooks | 3:58.35 | qualified | declared |
| Lopez Lomong | Nike | 3:58.52 | qualified | declared |
| Taylor Gilland | 3:58.77 | qualified | declared | |
| Ryan Hill | Nike | 3:59.00 | qualified | declared |
| Jack Bolas | New Balance | 3:59.35 | qualified | declared |
| Jacob Edwards | Columbus Running Company | 3:59.47 | qualified | declared |
| Daniel Quigley | Oregon TC Elite | 3:59.59 | qualified | declared |
| Travis Burkstrand | Team USA Minnesota | 4:00.15 | qualified | declared |
| Josh McAlary | 4:00.83 | qualified | declared | |
| Donald Cabral | Nike / New Jersey New York Track Club | 4:01.17 | qualified | declared |
| Robert Sandlin Jr | Bellarmine | 4:01.20 | qualified | declared |
| Galen Rupp | Nike | NT | accepted | declared |
| David Torrence | Nike | NT | accepted | declared |
3000m (Final 2/22 3:47 MST)
| Galen Rupp | Nike | 7:34.68 | qualified | declared |
| Ryan Hill | Nike | 7:34.87 | qualified | declared |
| Garrett Heath | Brooks | 7:37.40 | qualified | declared |
| Andrew Bumbalough | Nike | 7:37.62 | qualified | declared |
| Bernard Lagat | Nike | 7:38.51 | qualified | declared |
| William Leer | Nike | 7:42.95 | qualified | declared |
| Ben Blankenship | Oregon TC Elite | 7:46.55 | qualified | declared |
| Donald Cabral | Nike / New Jersey New York Track Club | 7:51.47 | qualified | declared |
| Timothy Ritchie | Boston Athletic Association | 7:56.16 | qualified | declared |
| Zachary Zarda | 7:57.18 | qualified | declared | |
| Nicholas Hilton | Team Run Flagstaff | 7:57.55 | qualified | declared |
| Craig Forys | New York Athletic Club (NYAC) | 7:58.07 | qualified | declared |
| William Nelson | 8:00.05 | qualified | declared | |
| Jim Spisak | Duquesne | 8:00.22 | qualified | declared |
| Dan Lowry | Playmakers Elite/New Balance | 8:00.69 | qualified | declared |
| Adam Vess | Team Run Flagstaff | 8:00.84 | qualified | declared |
| Daniel Quigley | Oregon TC Elite | 8:01.49 | qualified | declared |
| Aric Van Halen | 8:02.21 | qualified | declared | |
| Tommy Schmitz | Speed Factory Athletics | 8:03.15 | accepted | declared |
800m (Round 1 2/22 2:25 MST, Final 2/23 1:33 MST)
| Michael Rutt | New Jersey New York Track Club | 1:46.71 | qualified | declared |
| Erik Sowinski | Nike | 1:46.84 | qualified | declared |
| Brian Gagnon | New Jersey New York Track Club | 1:46.98 | qualified | declared |
| Robby Andrews | adidas | 1:47.07 | qualified | declared |
| James Gilreath | Adidas Team Green Running | 1:48.20 | qualified | declared |
| Nicholas Symmonds | Brooks | 1:48.64 | qualified | declared |
| Christopher Bilbrew | Adidas Team Green Running | 1:49.17 | qualified | declared |
| Harun Abda | Oregon TC Elite | 1:49.53 | qualified | declared |
| Mark Wieczorek | Brooks | 1:49.66 | qualified | declared |
| Mark Husted | 1:49.85 | qualified | declared | |
| Jacob Waterman | Wright Distance Project | 1:49.98 | qualified | declared |
| Tetlo Emmen | 1:50.08 | qualified | declared | |
| Casimir Loxsom | 1:50.14 | qualified | declared | |
| Tyler Mulder | Nike / Oregon TC Elite | 2:21.77 | qualified | declared |
| Joshua Guarino | Syracuse Chargers Track Club, Inc. | 2:22.09 | qualified | declared |
| Nicholas Guarino | Syracuse Chargers Track Club, Inc. | 2:22.73 | qualified | declared |
| Owen Dawson | 2:22.94 | qualified | declared | |
| Grant Grosvenor Jr | Montana St. | 1:50.24 | accepted | declared |
| Nicholas Thornton | 1:50.33 | accepted | declared |
Millrose Games
Thought I'd write a few notes on my thoughts about the Millrose Games this past weekend. Keep in mind that the US Championships are right around the corner now and will serve as the qualifier for the 2014 World Indoor Championships. Should be fun to watch that madness unfold. But for now ....
The Ageless Wonder
As I watched a bunch of US studs run 2000m in a time that would make my early high school mile times shake with fear, I tried to put the thought of Bernard Lagat lapping me out of my mind. Think about it. The guy is 39 and just set another American Record. Admittedly it was at only 2k, a very infrequently run distance, but the Kenyan-American just blasted away from the field with a 4:54 mark that included a 55-56ish closing 400m off sub 4 pace. Did I mention the guy is 39?
Lagat beat out Cam Levins (the Canadian stud who had easily his best race since college with a 4:55 for second), David Torrence (coming off one of his best seasons with a 3:33), Andrew Bumbalough and Evan Jager (steeplechase American Record Holder) with the greatest of ease. It makes you wonder exactly what is going on with this guy. Maybe he keeps himself in great shape and yes he is a rare talent (3:26 1500m PR puts him in only El G territory here), but you have to kind of wonder what else might be going on behind the scenes. It looks like Lagat will continue to stay relevant in the major track scene up until he is in his 40s. The 2016 US team is likely not out of the question for him at this rate which is unreal.
Whatever you want to say about Lagat and what he may or may not be on, you have to respect his racing savvy. He is an extremely well polished racer and a superb tactician. He and Centro are the best right now on US soil no doubt with Lagat being the best, but likely lacking the wheels now a days to get in done against the best in the world at 5k like he used to be able to. I give him props, he knows how to race and that's why he is incredibly accomplished at the highest level. He will be a factor in the 3k at the US trails and the indoor world championships.
So I guess ultimately, I gotta give Lagat a little bit of props for still handling guys in their prime (who also may be on something or another don't forget) with brilliant tactics and smart racing. Put these youngsters in their place Bernie.
A Phenomenal High School Performance .... Oh, and Mary Cain too ....
Mary Cain has been grabbing headlines in the US track and field market all winter, and deservingly so. She has taken off this year as one of the best milers in the nation and, with her recent dominating wins over the likes of US champs Moser and Uceny, she really only has Jenny B standing in her way of being #1. Keep in mind she is still only a high school senior.
We were amazed by what Mary did last year, but indoors this year she has just taken it to another level I did not see possible. Outdoors last year she proved she belonged, making it to the WC final and running 3 straight races that crushed the #2 fastest girl in the HS history at 1500m (current training partner Jordan Hasay). But Cain wasn't quite a world class talent. Now she is getting there. She has phenomenal closing speed and has become a much more tactically strong racer. A year of training and racing at the professional level (she wasn't a pro last spring only by definition, but she was doing everything a pro does), has elevated her to untouchable right now and has landed her a World Junior Record and she came within a fraction of another one. I'm very interested to see how she does at this year's world indoor championships.
But keep in mind people, Mary's marks from a year ago have been matched nicely by Junior in HS Alexa Efraimson. Despite not having the high profile or the big name coach, Alexa the Mother Ef-in Efraimson (probably not my best nickname ever) has run 9 flat for 3k (breaking Cain's record) and now 4:32.15 for the mile off a brutally slow 2:20-21 first half mile. In a less tactical race we definitely could have seen a 4:27 type mark out of Efraimson which would put her just about even with Cain's marks from a year ago when she was second to Shelia Reid at this event.
Think about it. Efraimson is just as good as Cain was last year if not better! But she will have to live in the shadow of Cain's monster of a year from last winter and, more importantly, last spring. If Efraimson can hop on a train outdoors and run something along the lines of 4:08/8:50/15:30 for 15/3k/5k not only will she be up there with the best runner's on Muhlenberg's roster, but she also will be arguably better than Mary Cain was a year ago! And that is certainly saying something!
Efraimson's downfall may be the fact that she is more of a 5k type without the big time kick and wheels of Cain and that may limit what she can do on any type of national and world level. That being said, let's not sell this woman short just because of what Cain did. It's hard to see two one in a million talents come back to back like this, but hey, it's not probabilistically impossible.
US Mid-Distance
The 1k had to be one of the most disappointing races of the night at Millrose. You get talk of an American Record attempt and a French guy runs train on the field. Sowinski moves up well out of his sweet spot and takes down the W on this field. Symmonds is now 0 for 2 in his American Record attempts this year. Not a good sign looking ahead.
And the aftermath of this disappointing 1k leaves us with a crop of question marks in the US mid-distance field. First we have Symmonds who, amid a big transfer and a lot of press, has not been able to cash in on a major victory in a Brooks jersey. He managed just 2:18.87 in a 1k race that is likely right in his sweet spot. He seemed disengaged and put down a kick a little too late in the game to get Sowinski. Fresh of a Silver medal and a heavy burden of expectation, Symmonds will certainly be judged unfairly during an indoor season that, in all likelihood, doesn't mean much to him. Sure he has said he wants records and wants a medal at the World Championships, but he has never been serious about the indoor season. Last year while Rupp chased the big standards and grabbed headlines, Symmonds got beat down in a 600m at Millrose, picked up a few pay checks, lost the US championships Outdoors and then peaked perfectly to flat out dominate when it counted in August. That being said, when you are 30, switch your coaches (maybe) and switch your sponsors there are going to be lingering doubts from me and the fans. Hopefully just no lingering doubts from Symmonds.
My boy Robby has not been able to pull something consistent together. He has the kick and the flash to make something amazing happen and he was just off the record a year ago, but something up in his mental state ain't clicking. He could run 2:20.57 as a freshman in high school, no doubt. I hope he finds the magic again because I really enjoy watching this guy run.
Rutt and Sowinski are the guys now to lead us this indoor season and possibly beyond. Rutt has already clocked a 1:46 in the 800m and ran an excellent leg against Sowinski on the world record 4x8. He has looked very strong and believe it or not he is one of the only guys with a indoor world championship final in the 800m to his name. Very cool. Sowinski, however, is the class of the US right now which I had to check and make sure is true (it is). He has clocked a 1:46 anchor, a world record, and now a win in a 1k that is without a doubt outside his range. His sweet spot to me his roughly 600m. He is on a flat out roll right now going into USAs and has a very dangerous kick in the right race. He will likely defend his US championship at 800m and lead our squad to worlds. That being said, how much can we rely on Erik Sowinski to lead the US in middle distance? His PR is at 1:45 which will not put him at the top of any world class meet. Can he take the next jump to a break through? Hopefully, this is the spring board he needs to answer that question with a yes.
In Defense of Will Leer
To be fair I wasn't cheering for Will Leer on Millrose night because I actually wanted him to win. I just wanted my friend to scream and shout and be angry. And it worked. So my friends and I high-fived and celebrated the upset and we talked briefly about Will Leer.
Look I'm certainly not a big fan of Leer. He is kind of a baby a lot of times after races and gives snarky, mean spirited interviews. He called out Lagat after a US final that seemed like a low blow excuse and he mocked a field of 5k guys that he handled quite impressively last spring. I'm sure he is a good guy at heart, but he is not doing any favors in those interviews. And please, can we stop throwing out the pre comparisons? If someone is going to be forever associated with Pre, I would prefer it to not be Will Leer.
But what bugs me is those who are quick to criticize Leer for not winning when it really counts. Has Leer made a world team? No. But I mean, c'mon look at the guys who have! It's been some combination of Leo, Lagat, Wheating, Centro and Lomong for just about ever (ok Dorian Ulrey slipped in there once, to be fair). Leer puts it on the line every year to make the team, gives it his all on a tactical kickers race, but just can't quite get to the line in the top 3. Here is the thing about Leo, Lagat, Wheating , Centro and Lomong: those guys run 3:32 or faster. Wheating is at 3:30 for a PR and Lagat is at 3:26 PR wise (even though he ain't running that ever again). Centro is tactically brilliant and at 3:31.9. Leo has a sliver medal from London. Morgan Freeman says Lopez Lomong brilliantly in Master Card commercials. It's like, how are you supposed to beat these guys?
Over the past couple years Leer has racked up a strong 5k PR, a huge win at the Oxy 1500m against a field that included Leo, Centro, Rupp, Lomong, and Wheating among others. Now he adds the Wannamaker mile title over Nick Willis, olympic silver medalist and 3:30 guy, who has been on a flat out roll in addition to other silver medalist Manzano, and sub 13 minute guy Lawi Lalang ... not to mention American Record holder at the mile Alan Webb! (sorry couldn't resist)
So yeah, Leer doesn't have the US championship mark or the flashy PR. He has only run 3:35 and in that race just about every body and their mom from the US beat him and run under the A standard. But that's the thing, Leer is maxed out at 3:35 ability. He is not as talented as these other top notch D1 recruits (Leer was a division 3 collegiate like Symmonds) and yet his tactical savvy and heart carry him into the discussion with the big names year in and year out. If you watch his race at Millrose you will notice that he ran it beautifully while the big name and the guy on a tear Nick Willis made a massive tactical mistake.
Guys like David Torrence and Garrett Heath may have some nice flashy PRs and go on the circuit in Europe and drop nice times here or there, but Leer is in the mix every year come US championship time. He gets to the line within a second or so of the leaders and just barely misses out on a trip to the big time. He runs hard and smart and gets his nose in there with the best of them. He makes the big names sweat and take notice of the little guy. And after he misses making the team he is too heart broken and burnt out to do stuff over seas.
Sorry, but I don't see that as a flaw, I see that as something admirable. I see something defensible. I hope Leer somehow finds a way to make a team to shut up some of the haters. But it will probably just be the usual suspects until Leer ultimately retires and moves. Ain't that just the way it is.
The Ageless Wonder
As I watched a bunch of US studs run 2000m in a time that would make my early high school mile times shake with fear, I tried to put the thought of Bernard Lagat lapping me out of my mind. Think about it. The guy is 39 and just set another American Record. Admittedly it was at only 2k, a very infrequently run distance, but the Kenyan-American just blasted away from the field with a 4:54 mark that included a 55-56ish closing 400m off sub 4 pace. Did I mention the guy is 39?
Lagat beat out Cam Levins (the Canadian stud who had easily his best race since college with a 4:55 for second), David Torrence (coming off one of his best seasons with a 3:33), Andrew Bumbalough and Evan Jager (steeplechase American Record Holder) with the greatest of ease. It makes you wonder exactly what is going on with this guy. Maybe he keeps himself in great shape and yes he is a rare talent (3:26 1500m PR puts him in only El G territory here), but you have to kind of wonder what else might be going on behind the scenes. It looks like Lagat will continue to stay relevant in the major track scene up until he is in his 40s. The 2016 US team is likely not out of the question for him at this rate which is unreal.
Whatever you want to say about Lagat and what he may or may not be on, you have to respect his racing savvy. He is an extremely well polished racer and a superb tactician. He and Centro are the best right now on US soil no doubt with Lagat being the best, but likely lacking the wheels now a days to get in done against the best in the world at 5k like he used to be able to. I give him props, he knows how to race and that's why he is incredibly accomplished at the highest level. He will be a factor in the 3k at the US trails and the indoor world championships.
So I guess ultimately, I gotta give Lagat a little bit of props for still handling guys in their prime (who also may be on something or another don't forget) with brilliant tactics and smart racing. Put these youngsters in their place Bernie.
A Phenomenal High School Performance .... Oh, and Mary Cain too ....
Mary Cain has been grabbing headlines in the US track and field market all winter, and deservingly so. She has taken off this year as one of the best milers in the nation and, with her recent dominating wins over the likes of US champs Moser and Uceny, she really only has Jenny B standing in her way of being #1. Keep in mind she is still only a high school senior.
We were amazed by what Mary did last year, but indoors this year she has just taken it to another level I did not see possible. Outdoors last year she proved she belonged, making it to the WC final and running 3 straight races that crushed the #2 fastest girl in the HS history at 1500m (current training partner Jordan Hasay). But Cain wasn't quite a world class talent. Now she is getting there. She has phenomenal closing speed and has become a much more tactically strong racer. A year of training and racing at the professional level (she wasn't a pro last spring only by definition, but she was doing everything a pro does), has elevated her to untouchable right now and has landed her a World Junior Record and she came within a fraction of another one. I'm very interested to see how she does at this year's world indoor championships.
But keep in mind people, Mary's marks from a year ago have been matched nicely by Junior in HS Alexa Efraimson. Despite not having the high profile or the big name coach, Alexa the Mother Ef-in Efraimson (probably not my best nickname ever) has run 9 flat for 3k (breaking Cain's record) and now 4:32.15 for the mile off a brutally slow 2:20-21 first half mile. In a less tactical race we definitely could have seen a 4:27 type mark out of Efraimson which would put her just about even with Cain's marks from a year ago when she was second to Shelia Reid at this event.
Think about it. Efraimson is just as good as Cain was last year if not better! But she will have to live in the shadow of Cain's monster of a year from last winter and, more importantly, last spring. If Efraimson can hop on a train outdoors and run something along the lines of 4:08/8:50/15:30 for 15/3k/5k not only will she be up there with the best runner's on Muhlenberg's roster, but she also will be arguably better than Mary Cain was a year ago! And that is certainly saying something!
Efraimson's downfall may be the fact that she is more of a 5k type without the big time kick and wheels of Cain and that may limit what she can do on any type of national and world level. That being said, let's not sell this woman short just because of what Cain did. It's hard to see two one in a million talents come back to back like this, but hey, it's not probabilistically impossible.
US Mid-Distance
The 1k had to be one of the most disappointing races of the night at Millrose. You get talk of an American Record attempt and a French guy runs train on the field. Sowinski moves up well out of his sweet spot and takes down the W on this field. Symmonds is now 0 for 2 in his American Record attempts this year. Not a good sign looking ahead.
And the aftermath of this disappointing 1k leaves us with a crop of question marks in the US mid-distance field. First we have Symmonds who, amid a big transfer and a lot of press, has not been able to cash in on a major victory in a Brooks jersey. He managed just 2:18.87 in a 1k race that is likely right in his sweet spot. He seemed disengaged and put down a kick a little too late in the game to get Sowinski. Fresh of a Silver medal and a heavy burden of expectation, Symmonds will certainly be judged unfairly during an indoor season that, in all likelihood, doesn't mean much to him. Sure he has said he wants records and wants a medal at the World Championships, but he has never been serious about the indoor season. Last year while Rupp chased the big standards and grabbed headlines, Symmonds got beat down in a 600m at Millrose, picked up a few pay checks, lost the US championships Outdoors and then peaked perfectly to flat out dominate when it counted in August. That being said, when you are 30, switch your coaches (maybe) and switch your sponsors there are going to be lingering doubts from me and the fans. Hopefully just no lingering doubts from Symmonds.
My boy Robby has not been able to pull something consistent together. He has the kick and the flash to make something amazing happen and he was just off the record a year ago, but something up in his mental state ain't clicking. He could run 2:20.57 as a freshman in high school, no doubt. I hope he finds the magic again because I really enjoy watching this guy run.
Rutt and Sowinski are the guys now to lead us this indoor season and possibly beyond. Rutt has already clocked a 1:46 in the 800m and ran an excellent leg against Sowinski on the world record 4x8. He has looked very strong and believe it or not he is one of the only guys with a indoor world championship final in the 800m to his name. Very cool. Sowinski, however, is the class of the US right now which I had to check and make sure is true (it is). He has clocked a 1:46 anchor, a world record, and now a win in a 1k that is without a doubt outside his range. His sweet spot to me his roughly 600m. He is on a flat out roll right now going into USAs and has a very dangerous kick in the right race. He will likely defend his US championship at 800m and lead our squad to worlds. That being said, how much can we rely on Erik Sowinski to lead the US in middle distance? His PR is at 1:45 which will not put him at the top of any world class meet. Can he take the next jump to a break through? Hopefully, this is the spring board he needs to answer that question with a yes.
In Defense of Will Leer
To be fair I wasn't cheering for Will Leer on Millrose night because I actually wanted him to win. I just wanted my friend to scream and shout and be angry. And it worked. So my friends and I high-fived and celebrated the upset and we talked briefly about Will Leer.
Look I'm certainly not a big fan of Leer. He is kind of a baby a lot of times after races and gives snarky, mean spirited interviews. He called out Lagat after a US final that seemed like a low blow excuse and he mocked a field of 5k guys that he handled quite impressively last spring. I'm sure he is a good guy at heart, but he is not doing any favors in those interviews. And please, can we stop throwing out the pre comparisons? If someone is going to be forever associated with Pre, I would prefer it to not be Will Leer.
But what bugs me is those who are quick to criticize Leer for not winning when it really counts. Has Leer made a world team? No. But I mean, c'mon look at the guys who have! It's been some combination of Leo, Lagat, Wheating, Centro and Lomong for just about ever (ok Dorian Ulrey slipped in there once, to be fair). Leer puts it on the line every year to make the team, gives it his all on a tactical kickers race, but just can't quite get to the line in the top 3. Here is the thing about Leo, Lagat, Wheating , Centro and Lomong: those guys run 3:32 or faster. Wheating is at 3:30 for a PR and Lagat is at 3:26 PR wise (even though he ain't running that ever again). Centro is tactically brilliant and at 3:31.9. Leo has a sliver medal from London. Morgan Freeman says Lopez Lomong brilliantly in Master Card commercials. It's like, how are you supposed to beat these guys?
Over the past couple years Leer has racked up a strong 5k PR, a huge win at the Oxy 1500m against a field that included Leo, Centro, Rupp, Lomong, and Wheating among others. Now he adds the Wannamaker mile title over Nick Willis, olympic silver medalist and 3:30 guy, who has been on a flat out roll in addition to other silver medalist Manzano, and sub 13 minute guy Lawi Lalang ... not to mention American Record holder at the mile Alan Webb! (sorry couldn't resist)
So yeah, Leer doesn't have the US championship mark or the flashy PR. He has only run 3:35 and in that race just about every body and their mom from the US beat him and run under the A standard. But that's the thing, Leer is maxed out at 3:35 ability. He is not as talented as these other top notch D1 recruits (Leer was a division 3 collegiate like Symmonds) and yet his tactical savvy and heart carry him into the discussion with the big names year in and year out. If you watch his race at Millrose you will notice that he ran it beautifully while the big name and the guy on a tear Nick Willis made a massive tactical mistake.
Guys like David Torrence and Garrett Heath may have some nice flashy PRs and go on the circuit in Europe and drop nice times here or there, but Leer is in the mix every year come US championship time. He gets to the line within a second or so of the leaders and just barely misses out on a trip to the big time. He runs hard and smart and gets his nose in there with the best of them. He makes the big names sweat and take notice of the little guy. And after he misses making the team he is too heart broken and burnt out to do stuff over seas.
Sorry, but I don't see that as a flaw, I see that as something admirable. I see something defensible. I hope Leer somehow finds a way to make a team to shut up some of the haters. But it will probably just be the usual suspects until Leer ultimately retires and moves. Ain't that just the way it is.
A Little Bit of High School
I figure since I clearly don't want to do any homework today, I can throw out a little high school related stuff today. I'm actually going to be making some state predictions once the performance list comes out in the near future, but until then I guess I will just share some thoughts.
It's Russell in the mile and the doubling back to anchor the DM. That's it. That's all it will be. Henderson isn't worried about making any sort of statement, they are a strong team and they know it. They likely have big national goals the next weekend and are willing to rest up if necessary. You may get to see Moy and some of the other non-DMR legs in the open mile or 800m at states as well, although I wouldn't be surprised if everybody is kept fresh. I think most likely we see Moy to 4 leg to Thompson to Russell, but we also could see Russell to 4 leg to Moy to Barchet in which case you let Moy, Russell and Thompson chase individuals. They have options but clearly since Yale this team has not been about the 3k or the state title as a team. I hope this prediction proves to be accurate.
It's hard to pick against Russell to win the mile as well. He is miles ahead of the field with his most recent effort being an "off performance" and him still running 4:12.1 ... I mean the guy is in phenomenal shape and should dominate the field at states. But you never know I guess ...
Let me tell you something about Zach Brehm. I hope he gets into the fast heat of the 800m at states, but there are no guarentees and if that's the case one of two things could go down: we see a Luke Lefebure type upset or we see an awesome kick off a slow pace and a mid-level medal for a guy who deserves to be competing with the best in the state for gold. The 800m is flat out stacked right now, the top couple times include Wiseman and Francis at 1:53 on a flat track, Logue, Cather, Sauer and Lewis. All those marks will be seeded faster than Brehm's latest time at Lehigh (1:58.41 which will be converted to 1:57.81 banked).
So out of the times so far we have seen this season here are all the guys who could be seeded ahead of him:
1. Francis
2. Wiseman
3. Logue
4. Cather
5. Lewis
6. Sauer
7. Smart
8. Hoey
9. Brehm
10. Wilhoite
Wilhoite finishes just .01 behind him in the seeds at this moment. I'd expect probably 8 in the fast heat if they can help it, with a shot at 10. Everybody on this list besides Smart and Hoey I expect to be in it (perhaps Smart will give it a shot and Belfatto and James will also chase individuals, but O'Hara usually seems to be willing to make sacrifices for a greater team good).
Overall, my point is Brehm is in a precarious position. There are still plenty of big meets left for others around the state to time chase while Brehm (I think?) is done racing at big time invites. Also the Carlisle squad is going to be banished to the slow heat of the 4x8 in all likelihood as well. As a fan of the sport, I hope with all my might that Brehm manages to hold on to a spot in the fast heat, but this situation will be very interesting to watch develop. You gotta think guys like Wilhoite, Caldwell, Belfatto, Cooper and Adams are lurkin.
By the way, just think about how good this final can be? We are talking 1:51s by a couple guys, you run 1:53 and you might get 6th! I'm just sayin.
Colin Martin and Dominic Deluca are beasts. Maybe this isn't the sexy 3k match that everyone was thinking of with James and Russell and Ethan Martin, but I just want to point out that these two guys are straight flying. Deluca got a big upset win in a dominating performance in the mile after he soloed his state leading mark in the 3k. Then Colin Martin dropped a bomb with his 9:13 3200m! He would be lapping a lot of the best guys in the state! These two may not be the big names, but these two appear to be the guys battling for the state title, and perhaps even pushing each other down towards 8:30.
HUGE SLEEPER ALERT: Brendan Bilotta is a beast. The kid just ran 4:21 and beat out the likes of James, Belfatto and Smart the big 3 of O'Hara. Bilotta is going to be good this year and his mile-dmr double at states (purely speculatory here) might be big time. Remember when Magee stepped up big time with his 1:55 leg to get his team a gold? Well we may be seeing something to that effect in the near future break out performance style out of Bilotta.
etrain, as always, just enjoying the ride
It's Russell in the mile and the doubling back to anchor the DM. That's it. That's all it will be. Henderson isn't worried about making any sort of statement, they are a strong team and they know it. They likely have big national goals the next weekend and are willing to rest up if necessary. You may get to see Moy and some of the other non-DMR legs in the open mile or 800m at states as well, although I wouldn't be surprised if everybody is kept fresh. I think most likely we see Moy to 4 leg to Thompson to Russell, but we also could see Russell to 4 leg to Moy to Barchet in which case you let Moy, Russell and Thompson chase individuals. They have options but clearly since Yale this team has not been about the 3k or the state title as a team. I hope this prediction proves to be accurate.
It's hard to pick against Russell to win the mile as well. He is miles ahead of the field with his most recent effort being an "off performance" and him still running 4:12.1 ... I mean the guy is in phenomenal shape and should dominate the field at states. But you never know I guess ...
Let me tell you something about Zach Brehm. I hope he gets into the fast heat of the 800m at states, but there are no guarentees and if that's the case one of two things could go down: we see a Luke Lefebure type upset or we see an awesome kick off a slow pace and a mid-level medal for a guy who deserves to be competing with the best in the state for gold. The 800m is flat out stacked right now, the top couple times include Wiseman and Francis at 1:53 on a flat track, Logue, Cather, Sauer and Lewis. All those marks will be seeded faster than Brehm's latest time at Lehigh (1:58.41 which will be converted to 1:57.81 banked).
So out of the times so far we have seen this season here are all the guys who could be seeded ahead of him:
1. Francis
2. Wiseman
3. Logue
4. Cather
5. Lewis
6. Sauer
7. Smart
8. Hoey
9. Brehm
10. Wilhoite
Wilhoite finishes just .01 behind him in the seeds at this moment. I'd expect probably 8 in the fast heat if they can help it, with a shot at 10. Everybody on this list besides Smart and Hoey I expect to be in it (perhaps Smart will give it a shot and Belfatto and James will also chase individuals, but O'Hara usually seems to be willing to make sacrifices for a greater team good).
Overall, my point is Brehm is in a precarious position. There are still plenty of big meets left for others around the state to time chase while Brehm (I think?) is done racing at big time invites. Also the Carlisle squad is going to be banished to the slow heat of the 4x8 in all likelihood as well. As a fan of the sport, I hope with all my might that Brehm manages to hold on to a spot in the fast heat, but this situation will be very interesting to watch develop. You gotta think guys like Wilhoite, Caldwell, Belfatto, Cooper and Adams are lurkin.
By the way, just think about how good this final can be? We are talking 1:51s by a couple guys, you run 1:53 and you might get 6th! I'm just sayin.
Colin Martin and Dominic Deluca are beasts. Maybe this isn't the sexy 3k match that everyone was thinking of with James and Russell and Ethan Martin, but I just want to point out that these two guys are straight flying. Deluca got a big upset win in a dominating performance in the mile after he soloed his state leading mark in the 3k. Then Colin Martin dropped a bomb with his 9:13 3200m! He would be lapping a lot of the best guys in the state! These two may not be the big names, but these two appear to be the guys battling for the state title, and perhaps even pushing each other down towards 8:30.
HUGE SLEEPER ALERT: Brendan Bilotta is a beast. The kid just ran 4:21 and beat out the likes of James, Belfatto and Smart the big 3 of O'Hara. Bilotta is going to be good this year and his mile-dmr double at states (purely speculatory here) might be big time. Remember when Magee stepped up big time with his 1:55 leg to get his team a gold? Well we may be seeing something to that effect in the near future break out performance style out of Bilotta.
etrain, as always, just enjoying the ride
Centennial Conference on the National Scene
Here is how some of the Centennial Conference runners stack up on the D3 national rankings.
Aaron Pannell, Dickinson 7th 60m Dash
Aaron Pannell, Dickinson 11th 200m
Andrew Carey, Hopkins 3rd 800m
Trevor Holmgren, Hopkins 9th 800m
Charlie Marquardt, Haverford 26th 800m
Luk Olenginski, F&M 50th 800m
Charlie Marquardt, Haverford 6th Mile
Andrew Carey, Hopkins 22nd Mile
Jonas Oppenheimer, Swarthmore 33rd Mile
Chris Stadler, Haverford 38th Mile
Julian Saliani, Hopkins 41st Mile
Brian Sokas, Haverford 42nd Mile
David Roza, Haverford 50th Mile
Chris Stadler, Haverford 2nd 3000m
Charlie Marquardt, Haverford 3rd 3000m
Ryan Steinbock, Dickinson 9th 3000m
Avi Bregman, Haverford 10th 3000m
David Roza, Haverford 36th 3000m
Greg Clark, Dickinson 37th 3000m
Andrew Carey, Hopkins 50th 3000m
Chris Stadler, Haverford 2nd 5000m
Avi Bregman, Haverford 6th 5000m
Ryan Steinbock, Dickinson 9th 5000m
David Roza, Haverford 11th 5000m
Schaffer Ochstein, Hopkins 17th 5000m
Greg Clark, Dickinson 24th 5000m
Henry Mynatt, Dickinson 33rd 5000m
Andrew Cerruzzi, Hopkins 40th 5000m
Sam Fujimori, Haverford 46th 5000m
Hopkins, 29th 4x400m
Haverford, 1st DMR
Hopkins, 13th DMR
Ryan Walsh, Hopkins 26th High Jump
Andrew Bartnett, Hopkins 18th Pole Vault
Alex Naticchia, Hopkins 48th Long Jump
Alex Jebb, Hopkins 32nd Triple Jump
Aaron Pannell, Dickinson 7th 60m Dash
Aaron Pannell, Dickinson 11th 200m
Andrew Carey, Hopkins 3rd 800m
Trevor Holmgren, Hopkins 9th 800m
Charlie Marquardt, Haverford 26th 800m
Luk Olenginski, F&M 50th 800m
Charlie Marquardt, Haverford 6th Mile
Andrew Carey, Hopkins 22nd Mile
Jonas Oppenheimer, Swarthmore 33rd Mile
Chris Stadler, Haverford 38th Mile
Julian Saliani, Hopkins 41st Mile
Brian Sokas, Haverford 42nd Mile
David Roza, Haverford 50th Mile
Chris Stadler, Haverford 2nd 3000m
Charlie Marquardt, Haverford 3rd 3000m
Ryan Steinbock, Dickinson 9th 3000m
Avi Bregman, Haverford 10th 3000m
David Roza, Haverford 36th 3000m
Greg Clark, Dickinson 37th 3000m
Andrew Carey, Hopkins 50th 3000m
Chris Stadler, Haverford 2nd 5000m
Avi Bregman, Haverford 6th 5000m
Ryan Steinbock, Dickinson 9th 5000m
David Roza, Haverford 11th 5000m
Schaffer Ochstein, Hopkins 17th 5000m
Greg Clark, Dickinson 24th 5000m
Henry Mynatt, Dickinson 33rd 5000m
Andrew Cerruzzi, Hopkins 40th 5000m
Sam Fujimori, Haverford 46th 5000m
Hopkins, 29th 4x400m
Haverford, 1st DMR
Hopkins, 13th DMR
Ryan Walsh, Hopkins 26th High Jump
Andrew Bartnett, Hopkins 18th Pole Vault
Alex Naticchia, Hopkins 48th Long Jump
Alex Jebb, Hopkins 32nd Triple Jump
NCAA Action
Last night I watched Lawi Lalang become the fastest mile in NCAA history when he clocked his 3:52.88 and moments later watched a Division II athlete beat a field of some of the best runners at the D1 level in the 3000m, including my boy Ben Saarel. Then I watched a real disappointing slam dunk contest.
Kevin Batt, a Junior from Adam State, ran 7:52.15 at the UW Husky Classic last night, making him the #4 runner in the entire NCAA at this moment! Unbelievable running by him, just Lawi, Korolev and Geoghegan sit ahead of him at this moment. Korolev and Geoghegan have been two of the most exciting stories this year. Korolev just runs all-out, his face is in permanent pain but somehow every time he looks like he is about to fall off, he finds another gear and holds on. Those Ivy league guys get it down.
Lawi is in flat out domination mode, can't see anybody touching this man this year. He will win whatever he wants to at NCAAs (besides the DMR which he probably can't quite pull off by himself).
For the record, there are 30 guys across all levels who have broken 8 minutes for 3k this year. I saw Jake Hursyz run 7:59.89 yesterday and he was so back in the pack, the flotrack guys thought he dropped out of the race! That's unbelievable depth at the college level and a truly remarkable group that will fight for NCAA spots.
In the mile 19 guys have broken the 4 minute barrier with a large group of others (11) that are under 4:01.00 and looking for more. Jordan Williamsyz of Villanova became the NCAA leader (besides Lawi) when he ran 3:56.84 at the Iowa State Classic.
In terms of DMR stuff, Oregon has two guys under, Notre Dame has two under, Nova has two under (one of whom almost never runs on their DMR A team), Dartmouth has three under 4:01.
In the 800m this weekend PA's own Sam Ellison ran 1:48.40 which I believe is an indoor PR for him and a very nice midseason mark. That being said, the Iowa State 800m was stacked and Ellison actually ran his time dominating the slow section of the meet. In the fast heat, Edward Kemboi ran 1:45.98! Easily an NCAA #1 mark. In the process he pulled Sean Obinwa from Florida, Billy Ledder from GTown and freshman Andres Arroyo from Florida to sub 1:48 marks. There are currently 18 guys under 1:49.00 in the NCAA, two of which run for PSU (Watkins and Kidder). The Division II boys are still representing well on the national scene. Drew Windle of D2 Ashland dropped a 1:46.52 this weekend in an effort that secured him a win by over 2 seconds!
At 5000m, Reed Conner barely edged out Patrick Tiernan, the freshman stud from Nova, both guys running 13:37. Those marks were fantastic, but Eddy Cheserek's 13:40, closing in 58, was the performance of the night. The surprise NCAA champ in XC is eyeing up a repeat performance in the 5000m indoors. He also has interesting DMR duties to consider going forward and maybe we will see a 3k with a nice time. After the dramatic bit of 5k running this weekend nation wide there are now 25 guys under 14 minutes for 5k in the NCAA.
Kevin Batt, a Junior from Adam State, ran 7:52.15 at the UW Husky Classic last night, making him the #4 runner in the entire NCAA at this moment! Unbelievable running by him, just Lawi, Korolev and Geoghegan sit ahead of him at this moment. Korolev and Geoghegan have been two of the most exciting stories this year. Korolev just runs all-out, his face is in permanent pain but somehow every time he looks like he is about to fall off, he finds another gear and holds on. Those Ivy league guys get it down.
Lawi is in flat out domination mode, can't see anybody touching this man this year. He will win whatever he wants to at NCAAs (besides the DMR which he probably can't quite pull off by himself).
For the record, there are 30 guys across all levels who have broken 8 minutes for 3k this year. I saw Jake Hursyz run 7:59.89 yesterday and he was so back in the pack, the flotrack guys thought he dropped out of the race! That's unbelievable depth at the college level and a truly remarkable group that will fight for NCAA spots.
In the mile 19 guys have broken the 4 minute barrier with a large group of others (11) that are under 4:01.00 and looking for more. Jordan Williamsyz of Villanova became the NCAA leader (besides Lawi) when he ran 3:56.84 at the Iowa State Classic.
In terms of DMR stuff, Oregon has two guys under, Notre Dame has two under, Nova has two under (one of whom almost never runs on their DMR A team), Dartmouth has three under 4:01.
In the 800m this weekend PA's own Sam Ellison ran 1:48.40 which I believe is an indoor PR for him and a very nice midseason mark. That being said, the Iowa State 800m was stacked and Ellison actually ran his time dominating the slow section of the meet. In the fast heat, Edward Kemboi ran 1:45.98! Easily an NCAA #1 mark. In the process he pulled Sean Obinwa from Florida, Billy Ledder from GTown and freshman Andres Arroyo from Florida to sub 1:48 marks. There are currently 18 guys under 1:49.00 in the NCAA, two of which run for PSU (Watkins and Kidder). The Division II boys are still representing well on the national scene. Drew Windle of D2 Ashland dropped a 1:46.52 this weekend in an effort that secured him a win by over 2 seconds!
At 5000m, Reed Conner barely edged out Patrick Tiernan, the freshman stud from Nova, both guys running 13:37. Those marks were fantastic, but Eddy Cheserek's 13:40, closing in 58, was the performance of the night. The surprise NCAA champ in XC is eyeing up a repeat performance in the 5000m indoors. He also has interesting DMR duties to consider going forward and maybe we will see a 3k with a nice time. After the dramatic bit of 5k running this weekend nation wide there are now 25 guys under 14 minutes for 5k in the NCAA.
Predictions for the PTFCA Carnival
First off I thought it might be helpful to include the meet schedule for this event:
60m Hurdles trials: (winner plus times to finals)
60m Dash trials: (winner plus times to finals)
Mile run
400 meter dash
60 meter hurdles: finals
60 meter dash: finals
800 meter run
200 meter dash
3000 meter run
4 x 200 meter relay
4 x 800 meter relay
Distance Medley (1200m, 400m, 800m, 1600m)
4 x 400 meter relay
Mile
My top 5 goes as follows,
1. Austin Cooper
2. Sam Ritz
3. Paul Power
4. Dominic Deluca
5. Watson Hanson
Others who could surprise in no particular order include:
Jon Perlman
Liam O'Connell
Dave Garton
Colin Abert
Chris Cummings
Dominic Huckleberry
Alex Knapp
Aaron Lauer
Dan Shalala
Josh Smith
Colin Wills
Nate Endenfield
I see Cooper riding a solid wave of momentum and pulling off a bit of a stunner upset wise. Power is on the verge of big break out in my mind. Deluca may be the fittest out of everyone but I am not yet sold on his mile abilities. Hanson was kind of almost a dice roll pick as I think Perlman, O'Connell or Cummings could easily be in the spot. Huckleberry is certainly the big sleeper if it turns out he is in racing shape which is no guarantee. Sometimes it takes a race or two to get back in the swing of things.
800m
My top 5 goes as follows,
1. Zach Brehm
2. Alek Sauer
3. Colin McLaughlin
4. Gunnar Sjoreen
5. Graham Allen
Others who could surprise in no particular order include:
James Chappell
Nate Edenfield
Jabari Freeman
Sean Dougherty
Here is the thing, Brehm is opting for the 800m at this mean, which kinda locks him in to running this event at states (he isn't going to get into the hot heat of the mile with a 4:30. So Brehm needs to run fast and get himself into the fast heat of a very competitive 800m field. I believe that he will pull out a big performance to lock up that spot. That being said, a desperate guy can take a race out hard and let a kicker come get him. That's why I think Sauer is definitely dangerous for the upset in this field. Watch out. I picked McLaughlin probably almost purely because I'm impressed by what Quakertown could do in the DM and I assume they have to have a leg who is much better than I expected. I'm betting on McLaughlin as a result. Allen and Sjoreen are both consistent and either of them could break out at any moment.
3000m
1. Cole Nissley
2. Patrick Reilly
3. Griffin Molino
4. Alexander Balla
5. Chris Cummings
Others would could surprise in no particular order include:
Kevin Lapsansky
Paul Power
Will Swart
Jack Tidball
First off, I have a hard time picking anyone to finish high who is doubling off the mile in an event like this. Things always move quicker than you think and this is a hard double at any level when you have a mile and a 3k on your plate. I would be picking Molino to win this race, but I am always worried about guys who haven't raced in a while getting out a little over their head. It usually takes one to break off the rust. Nissley needs a big day and I think he may get the W as a result. Reilly is strong as well and not one to mess with. Balla gets the Quakertown treatment that I'm giving McLaughlin as well. Hoping for the best.
Relays
Going have to be careful with these because it is really hard to project who is going to do what and where so first I just listed off some of the names that stood out to me in each of the relays.
4x8
Abington
Avon Grove
Cedar Crest
CB South
CB West
Conestoga
DT West
GFS
Malvern Prep
Pennsbury
Perk Valley
Spring Ford
State College
Strath Haven
Upper Merion
West Chester East
West Chester Henderson
Wyomissing
DMR
Carlisle
Conestoga
Easton
GFS
Pennsbury
Perkiomen Valley
Radnor
State College
Strath Haven
Tunkhannock
Upper Merion
West Chester East
West Chester Henderson
Wyomissing
So those are the names. Here is what I speculate. Carlisle is definitely going hot in the DM. So too, I'd imagine, is State College. But State College will be at Millrose the night before which may complicate things. Radnor isn't racing Holm so I expect they may be trying to hop in a good DMR. The DMR could be loaded with teams like GFS (racing 0 individuals), State College, Pennsbury, Conestoga (no Marston in the open), Perk Valley and sleeper pick Wyomissing (also 0 individuals). That seems more likely to be what people load up on if I had to guess. I'm not sure what Henderson's plan is, but I'm not expecting anything all out from whatever team they bring. Their A team will be at Millrose that weekend.
In the 4x8 Avon Grove is a sleeper as is Haven if they don't go DM. Plus Malvern Prep is only entered in the 4x8 with little individuals to be found so I'd imagine they are trying to run like 8:05 or faster. I think the DMR is the relay to watch, but the 4x8 certainly can surprise if the right teams throw their chips in the pot.
Keep the following facts in mind:
DT West still needs a state spot in the 4x8 as do CBSouth and CB West, these are all teams that may be trying to get it this weekend. GFS possibly as well. Other teams like Radnor, Penn Wood, etc. may be trying to get a faster seed time so they can get in the hot heat at states. Wyomissing is a wild car here as who knows which event they will pick, they need both.
In the DM, there are currently 10 teams qualified state wide, meaning that those low 10:50 times will not be cutting it by seasons end. So teams like CB West who have run 10:54 definitely need to drop time. Conestoga, Haven, Perk Valley, Upper Merion, Wyomissing, Pennsbury, Carlisle and State College all do not have state qualifying marks in the DM but all could be medal contenders come states. I'd expect this to be the loaded race as this is the perfect chance to get a slew of teams down in the 10:40 range like NP and LaSalle just did.
60m Hurdles trials: (winner plus times to finals)
60m Dash trials: (winner plus times to finals)
Mile run
400 meter dash
60 meter hurdles: finals
60 meter dash: finals
800 meter run
200 meter dash
3000 meter run
4 x 200 meter relay
4 x 800 meter relay
Distance Medley (1200m, 400m, 800m, 1600m)
4 x 400 meter relay
Mile
My top 5 goes as follows,
1. Austin Cooper
2. Sam Ritz
3. Paul Power
4. Dominic Deluca
5. Watson Hanson
Others who could surprise in no particular order include:
Jon Perlman
Liam O'Connell
Dave Garton
Colin Abert
Chris Cummings
Dominic Huckleberry
Alex Knapp
Aaron Lauer
Dan Shalala
Josh Smith
Colin Wills
Nate Endenfield
I see Cooper riding a solid wave of momentum and pulling off a bit of a stunner upset wise. Power is on the verge of big break out in my mind. Deluca may be the fittest out of everyone but I am not yet sold on his mile abilities. Hanson was kind of almost a dice roll pick as I think Perlman, O'Connell or Cummings could easily be in the spot. Huckleberry is certainly the big sleeper if it turns out he is in racing shape which is no guarantee. Sometimes it takes a race or two to get back in the swing of things.
800m
My top 5 goes as follows,
1. Zach Brehm
2. Alek Sauer
3. Colin McLaughlin
4. Gunnar Sjoreen
5. Graham Allen
Others who could surprise in no particular order include:
James Chappell
Nate Edenfield
Jabari Freeman
Sean Dougherty
Here is the thing, Brehm is opting for the 800m at this mean, which kinda locks him in to running this event at states (he isn't going to get into the hot heat of the mile with a 4:30. So Brehm needs to run fast and get himself into the fast heat of a very competitive 800m field. I believe that he will pull out a big performance to lock up that spot. That being said, a desperate guy can take a race out hard and let a kicker come get him. That's why I think Sauer is definitely dangerous for the upset in this field. Watch out. I picked McLaughlin probably almost purely because I'm impressed by what Quakertown could do in the DM and I assume they have to have a leg who is much better than I expected. I'm betting on McLaughlin as a result. Allen and Sjoreen are both consistent and either of them could break out at any moment.
3000m
1. Cole Nissley
2. Patrick Reilly
3. Griffin Molino
4. Alexander Balla
5. Chris Cummings
Others would could surprise in no particular order include:
Kevin Lapsansky
Paul Power
Will Swart
Jack Tidball
First off, I have a hard time picking anyone to finish high who is doubling off the mile in an event like this. Things always move quicker than you think and this is a hard double at any level when you have a mile and a 3k on your plate. I would be picking Molino to win this race, but I am always worried about guys who haven't raced in a while getting out a little over their head. It usually takes one to break off the rust. Nissley needs a big day and I think he may get the W as a result. Reilly is strong as well and not one to mess with. Balla gets the Quakertown treatment that I'm giving McLaughlin as well. Hoping for the best.
Relays
Going have to be careful with these because it is really hard to project who is going to do what and where so first I just listed off some of the names that stood out to me in each of the relays.
4x8
Abington
Avon Grove
Cedar Crest
CB South
CB West
Conestoga
DT West
GFS
Malvern Prep
Pennsbury
Perk Valley
Spring Ford
State College
Strath Haven
Upper Merion
West Chester East
West Chester Henderson
Wyomissing
DMR
Carlisle
Conestoga
Easton
GFS
Pennsbury
Perkiomen Valley
Radnor
State College
Strath Haven
Tunkhannock
Upper Merion
West Chester East
West Chester Henderson
Wyomissing
So those are the names. Here is what I speculate. Carlisle is definitely going hot in the DM. So too, I'd imagine, is State College. But State College will be at Millrose the night before which may complicate things. Radnor isn't racing Holm so I expect they may be trying to hop in a good DMR. The DMR could be loaded with teams like GFS (racing 0 individuals), State College, Pennsbury, Conestoga (no Marston in the open), Perk Valley and sleeper pick Wyomissing (also 0 individuals). That seems more likely to be what people load up on if I had to guess. I'm not sure what Henderson's plan is, but I'm not expecting anything all out from whatever team they bring. Their A team will be at Millrose that weekend.
In the 4x8 Avon Grove is a sleeper as is Haven if they don't go DM. Plus Malvern Prep is only entered in the 4x8 with little individuals to be found so I'd imagine they are trying to run like 8:05 or faster. I think the DMR is the relay to watch, but the 4x8 certainly can surprise if the right teams throw their chips in the pot.
Keep the following facts in mind:
DT West still needs a state spot in the 4x8 as do CBSouth and CB West, these are all teams that may be trying to get it this weekend. GFS possibly as well. Other teams like Radnor, Penn Wood, etc. may be trying to get a faster seed time so they can get in the hot heat at states. Wyomissing is a wild car here as who knows which event they will pick, they need both.
In the DM, there are currently 10 teams qualified state wide, meaning that those low 10:50 times will not be cutting it by seasons end. So teams like CB West who have run 10:54 definitely need to drop time. Conestoga, Haven, Perk Valley, Upper Merion, Wyomissing, Pennsbury, Carlisle and State College all do not have state qualifying marks in the DM but all could be medal contenders come states. I'd expect this to be the loaded race as this is the perfect chance to get a slew of teams down in the 10:40 range like NP and LaSalle just did.
Centennial Conference Predicting
So we are at the point in the season now where the Conference picture is starting to come together a little clearer. Before I really get into my analysis of who is going to run what as of right now, let me first note a few things about the conference. This year the 5000m is on Saturday while the rest of the events come on Sunday. This means that the 5000m-3000m double is all the more feasible and that the 5k-DMR double is now not out of the question (although still fairly unlikely). Just about everybody at the top level who runs the 5k is likely throwing their name down for the 3k as well, there isn't much of a point in resting them if they are qualified. And really there isn't too much incentive to rest a guy to keep him fresh for the 3k.
Also I have to note that the 800m isn't looking quite as deep as it has in years past. Sure there are the big front runners in the race, but considering the 4x8 and 800s relative proximity and the importance many schools place on the relay, it is very possible that some slower times and less well known names will score. Many of the mid-range guys who are around 2 flat would drop out in favor of the 4x8 in most years, but this year those guys are top 12ish guys. So for example Swat, who has always been a team willing to sacrifice individuals for relays, has 3 guys at 1:57 or faster, giving them 3 potential top 8 seeds. But those guys may opt to try and win a 4x8 title and all scratch out. Hyland and Rasmussen are prototype relay guys, but could still possibly end up scorers. F&M has bowed out of the open 8 every year in order to capture 4x8 gold and may be in favor of doing that once more this season. So we are looking, as of now, at a variety of 2 flat guys who could sneak a point.
Here is the group that I project will run the 800 with a list of a few possible others:
1. Andrew Carey, Hopkins
2. Trevor Holmgren, Hopkins
3. Charlie Marquardt, Haverford
4. Gebby Kenny, Haverford
5. Drew Mackin, Ursinus
6. Jon Jackson, Dickinson
7. Jake Zamostny, McDaniel
8. Chris Gardner, Haverford
9. Arvind Arikitia, Hopkins
Those are the only guys out of the top 25 in the conference that I have competing! A 2:03 guy is 9th in the toughest distance conference on this side of the Mississippi!
But there are all of these guys who I see saving it for the relay that may opt to switch in:
Oppenheimer, Green, White, Rasmussen, Hyland, Hepner, Branch, Rada, Olenginski, Olenginski ... the list goes on
Now the field looks a little bit more intimidating and more like a centennial conference field should look.
So keeping all of this in mind here is what I see happening for each distance team in the conference:
McDaniel
Surprisingly, this squad actually has nice relay potential this year. They have already run sub 8:20 in the 4x8 despite not having a clear 4th leg. They have a 2 flat and a 2:02 guy on the roster as well as Chris Jones who had a nice XC season this year. But Zamostny, the 2 flat guy, has a real chance of scoring in the aforementioned bizzare 800 scenario. This, in combination with the lack of a clear 4th leg makes me think McDaniel will opt for something along the lines of:
DMR: Merkel, 4 leg, Zamostny, Jones
800m: Zamostny
4x800m: Merkel, Zamostny, Jones, Lapenta
There is potential for some rearranging of the DMR legs if they feel Merkel and Zamostny are better off on longer legs. Also we could see Merkel in the mile or Zamostny pull out of the 800m in order to give his squad the best chance at doing well in both relays.
Ursinus
Ursinus really has two things going for them: Andrew Mackin and Vinny Flood. They could try to use them to throw together a solid DM with one more half way decent 800m leg, but I think they understand that Mackin will do them the most good if he is fresh in the 800. Therefore, no real point of wasting Flood on the DM. He can try and sneak a point in a depleted mile field and then they can bring them back to give their best shot at snagging a point in the 4x8 (although the way the field is shaping up they are almost a definite 9th in both relays). So here is what I would guess:
DMR: some combination of Slade, Wacker, Rudich, Ammons and Hartop with a 400 guy in there
Mile: Flood
800m: Mackin
4x800m: Flood, Mackin, Slade, Wacker (if healthy, otherwise Ammons)
There is potentially here to try for something magical in the DM, but I'd be pretty surprised. Mackin is coming on quickly as a title hopeful in the open 8, they gotta keep him fresh.
Gettysburg
Gettysburg's decision to unleash Sharp and Rausch in the open 8 really changed the balance of power in the entire conference meet as Sharp's fast pace led to the medals falling into the slow heat. Now the question is will Gettysburg look to repeat this feat with the less talented duo of Hill and Hovrath. Rausch may come back and some point this season, but with no races under his belt it's hard to rely on him. Gettysburg is tricky because they don't seem to have enough pieces to really attack the 4x8, but the 4x8 is their favorite event to attack. They have done a pretty solid job in that event as well. If I had to take a stab at predicting, given only what I have seen so far, here's my best bet
DMR: Brown, 4 guy, Horvath, Taber
800m: Hill
4x800m: Hill, Horvath, Brown, Wojick
Now obviously all this can change with the emergence of a healthy Rausch. I also could see Hill being pulled from the open 8 in favor of a bit more stacked off a DMR (Hill likely being the 1200m man in this situation). Gettysburg also has the pieces to run a decent DMR without using any of their key 800m legs (if Rausch comes back) so there is also the outside chance they keep everyone fresh to attack the relay. I'd say that's the least likely situation (although they have like 7 guys at 4:46 or faster to at the very least fill in the slow heats of the mile).
Franklin and Marshall
The biggest question when it comes to F&M will be whether or not they will insist on continued their 4x8 tradition. They have won it the last two years simply by saving all their pieces until the very end and running away from exhausted Haverford and Hopkins teams that have tried to chase them down (and I suppose Dickinson and Gettysburg each had a decent showing in there). It has to be starting to lose it's luster as they know that the other top teams are doubling and tripling guys to use against them. Plus the Olenginskis have become the leaders of the conference at 800 (despite Luk missing the finals outdoors last year). I think they have something to prove at this meet. Plus their 4x4 is very good, having already run 3:28. That required both Olenginskis on the team to do it.
That being said, I'm going to say that F&M opts in a consistent manner and goes after one more 4x8 title. This year they may need all the fresh pieces as Swat is going to be dangerous if they want to be. However, going forward this will be the most intriguing team to watch develop and choose their strategy.
5000m: Andrews
DMR: Eller, 4 guy, Generali, Whalen (potential for Andrews here if he is not developing better or Johnson if he is not on the 4x8, also Pagnelli or Hamilton could prove valuable in this spot)
4x800m: Johnson, Pawlush, Olenginski, Olenginski (potenial again for Andrews if he returns to his form of old).
Muhlenberg
As I run for Muhlenberg, it should be easier to predict what we will do. But I got nothing. There is still too much variability going on to say anything with some sort of certainity. Steve Sroka is coming back from injury while Kline and Munyan have the 5k to worry about as well as the potential to run on the DMR. Plus you have some 4x8 drama in there as well. A lot can change very quickly if guys assert themselves in the next couple weeks, but for now I think it will be something like this:
5000m: Kline, Munyan
DMR: McGetrick, 4 leg, Sroka, Kline (potential to switch around McGetrick and Sroka with Munyan, Kentwell and others)
4x800m: Kentwell, Newcomb, Elkan, Felix (potential for McGetrick, Sroka or even Kline to sneak in here and rearrange the pieces)
I also wouldn't be surprised if the 5k is scrapped to some degree and the Mules opt to stack the DM and the 4x8 with the guys they see fit. Should be interesting to watch it unfold from the front row.
Swarthmore
Another incredibly difficult team to predict. Swat in the past has been more than willing to give up individual glory for a shot at team success. However, the team has never been quite this good before. Oppenheimer, Green and White are sure fire contenders in there top events. However, we also know that Swat has already run 7:59 for 4x8 and probably wouldn't mind taking their shot at a title. Like F&M we will have to wait it out to some degree and see what happens with their priorities. Keep in mind they have a slew of 3k-5k guys with a lot of talent that they may be able to move around to a variety of places. My best bet is the following:
5000m: Russell
DMR: Green, 4 leg, White, Branch (they also have Friske, Creem, Castro-Wehr, Russell and they could easily scrap this DMR entirely and plug in those guys and do well .. Also don't be surprised if White is the 400 leg ... or better yet don't be surprised if they go all in on the DMR with their 50. leg Oppenheimer on the anchor and White and Green doing the rest ... that team can run under 10:20 and would almost definitely win gold)
Mile: Oppenheimer (deserves a chance on the big stage in my opinion), Creem, Castro-Wehr
3000m: Friske, Russell
4x800m: Oppenheimer, White, Green, Branch (go for the W with a relatively fresh group)
As you can tell, I'm not sure we won't see a stacked DM and then guys on the double in the individuals or possibly something completely different, but if I had to predict based on what I have seen in the past this is my best bet.
Dickinson
Hard to imagine Dickinson is an after thought these days in the distance events. They are going to be flat out stacked across the board, but somehow they will fly hard core under the radar with Hopkins and Haverford in a tight battle for the team title (even though from the looks of the things right now Hopkins is winning handily). Dickinson has such strong individuals it makes their relays a little bit more questionable, but I would bet they will put in their 'B' guys and not do what they have done at the past (letting someone like Steinbock anchor the DM). In my opinion Steinbock and Sansevere shouldn't touch the DM with a ten foot pole, but if Dickinson decides they want to try and win it, those are the first guys they will turn to. I don't see it being that way because I see Steinbock going for the triple threat, which is no easy feat. Here is how I see it:
5000m: Basically everybody and their mom, Steinbock, Mynatt, Clark, Smith, Sisson, Simmons, Klein, Strenta, Howard, Rinehardt
DMR: White, 4 leg, Hepner, Brady
Mile: Steinbock, Sansevere
800m: Jackson (defending champion has to have a chance to defend his title right?)
3000m: Steinbock, Mynatt, Clark, Sisson, Simmons, Klein, Steadman (if Smith qualifies him too in all likelihood)
4x800m: Jackson, Sansevere, Hepner, Bayne (possibly instead a doubling White, also possible Bayne is switched into the DM to keep Hepner fresh for this race ... But Bayne has the most potential out of any of these second tier guys)
Haverford
Haverford is very good this year and they obviously have some amazing pieces, but it is challenge to figure out exactly where they all fit. Haverford is probably the only team that is seriously analyzing how to get every single possible point out of their distance squad at this meet. What does that mean? I think it means some fresh guys in the 3k, a strong DMR and 4x8, and a heavy dose of Stadler and Marquardt. Even though Marquardt is the second fastest 3k man in conference history, I'd be stunned if Donnelly doesn't take the points in the mile, 8, 4x8 triple. It's not an easy one, but I think they will give their star a shot. I also see Stadler going after the triple. The question is how will they use guys like Roza and Sokas and Bregman? Hard to leave 4:20 milers out of a race where they could place top 5 or so and disrput a Hopkins onslaught, but I mean are you going to triple everbody? Are you going to leave sub 15 guys out of the 5k? Lots of choices for Haverford, but this is what I see.
5000m: Stadler, Bregman, Roza, Fujimori, Christian
DMR: Rada, 4 leg, Rasmussen, Sokas (could see Gorman or Stackman, but I think they want to try and snag a gold in this event if they can)
Mile: Stadler, Marquardt, Stackman, Brier
800m: Marquardt, Kenny, Dorvil
3000m: Stadler, Bregman, Roza, Fujimore, Gorman, Christian
4x800m: Marquardt, Rada, Rasmussen, Gardner (could switch this around if they aren't too attached to Keny on the 4x4)
Hopkins
Last, but certainly not least, we are looking at the army of blue jays. Haverford may chant about the army, but Hop has got so many guys and has run so many fast times while they have gone through the meet chasing that this is easily their conference meet to lose. That's why I don't think they will pay too much attention to relays and all that good stuff. They will load up the individuals and go after points. Could be misguided, but here is what I would have to guess is going down
5000m: Ochstein, Stecklair, Cerruzzi, Arnold, Dordai
DMR: Rinehart, 4 leg, Wilkes, Butler
Mile: Carey, Saliani, Pavarini, Alvarez
800m: Carey, Holmgren, Hyland, Arikalta
3000m: Ochstein, Pavarini, Arnold, Cerruzzi, Stecklair, Saliani, Butler
4x800m: Holmgren, Hyland, Rinehart, Wilkes (potential to change this one up and pull guys out of event to keep them fresher, but I don't think the 4x8 will mean much by the time Hopkins is done with the field events and such)
So that's it! I'll try to update a few things and tweak if I see fit later on.
Also I have to note that the 800m isn't looking quite as deep as it has in years past. Sure there are the big front runners in the race, but considering the 4x8 and 800s relative proximity and the importance many schools place on the relay, it is very possible that some slower times and less well known names will score. Many of the mid-range guys who are around 2 flat would drop out in favor of the 4x8 in most years, but this year those guys are top 12ish guys. So for example Swat, who has always been a team willing to sacrifice individuals for relays, has 3 guys at 1:57 or faster, giving them 3 potential top 8 seeds. But those guys may opt to try and win a 4x8 title and all scratch out. Hyland and Rasmussen are prototype relay guys, but could still possibly end up scorers. F&M has bowed out of the open 8 every year in order to capture 4x8 gold and may be in favor of doing that once more this season. So we are looking, as of now, at a variety of 2 flat guys who could sneak a point.
Here is the group that I project will run the 800 with a list of a few possible others:
1. Andrew Carey, Hopkins
2. Trevor Holmgren, Hopkins
3. Charlie Marquardt, Haverford
4. Gebby Kenny, Haverford
5. Drew Mackin, Ursinus
6. Jon Jackson, Dickinson
7. Jake Zamostny, McDaniel
8. Chris Gardner, Haverford
9. Arvind Arikitia, Hopkins
Those are the only guys out of the top 25 in the conference that I have competing! A 2:03 guy is 9th in the toughest distance conference on this side of the Mississippi!
But there are all of these guys who I see saving it for the relay that may opt to switch in:
Oppenheimer, Green, White, Rasmussen, Hyland, Hepner, Branch, Rada, Olenginski, Olenginski ... the list goes on
Now the field looks a little bit more intimidating and more like a centennial conference field should look.
So keeping all of this in mind here is what I see happening for each distance team in the conference:
McDaniel
Surprisingly, this squad actually has nice relay potential this year. They have already run sub 8:20 in the 4x8 despite not having a clear 4th leg. They have a 2 flat and a 2:02 guy on the roster as well as Chris Jones who had a nice XC season this year. But Zamostny, the 2 flat guy, has a real chance of scoring in the aforementioned bizzare 800 scenario. This, in combination with the lack of a clear 4th leg makes me think McDaniel will opt for something along the lines of:
DMR: Merkel, 4 leg, Zamostny, Jones
800m: Zamostny
4x800m: Merkel, Zamostny, Jones, Lapenta
There is potential for some rearranging of the DMR legs if they feel Merkel and Zamostny are better off on longer legs. Also we could see Merkel in the mile or Zamostny pull out of the 800m in order to give his squad the best chance at doing well in both relays.
Ursinus
Ursinus really has two things going for them: Andrew Mackin and Vinny Flood. They could try to use them to throw together a solid DM with one more half way decent 800m leg, but I think they understand that Mackin will do them the most good if he is fresh in the 800. Therefore, no real point of wasting Flood on the DM. He can try and sneak a point in a depleted mile field and then they can bring them back to give their best shot at snagging a point in the 4x8 (although the way the field is shaping up they are almost a definite 9th in both relays). So here is what I would guess:
DMR: some combination of Slade, Wacker, Rudich, Ammons and Hartop with a 400 guy in there
Mile: Flood
800m: Mackin
4x800m: Flood, Mackin, Slade, Wacker (if healthy, otherwise Ammons)
There is potentially here to try for something magical in the DM, but I'd be pretty surprised. Mackin is coming on quickly as a title hopeful in the open 8, they gotta keep him fresh.
Gettysburg
Gettysburg's decision to unleash Sharp and Rausch in the open 8 really changed the balance of power in the entire conference meet as Sharp's fast pace led to the medals falling into the slow heat. Now the question is will Gettysburg look to repeat this feat with the less talented duo of Hill and Hovrath. Rausch may come back and some point this season, but with no races under his belt it's hard to rely on him. Gettysburg is tricky because they don't seem to have enough pieces to really attack the 4x8, but the 4x8 is their favorite event to attack. They have done a pretty solid job in that event as well. If I had to take a stab at predicting, given only what I have seen so far, here's my best bet
DMR: Brown, 4 guy, Horvath, Taber
800m: Hill
4x800m: Hill, Horvath, Brown, Wojick
Now obviously all this can change with the emergence of a healthy Rausch. I also could see Hill being pulled from the open 8 in favor of a bit more stacked off a DMR (Hill likely being the 1200m man in this situation). Gettysburg also has the pieces to run a decent DMR without using any of their key 800m legs (if Rausch comes back) so there is also the outside chance they keep everyone fresh to attack the relay. I'd say that's the least likely situation (although they have like 7 guys at 4:46 or faster to at the very least fill in the slow heats of the mile).
Franklin and Marshall
The biggest question when it comes to F&M will be whether or not they will insist on continued their 4x8 tradition. They have won it the last two years simply by saving all their pieces until the very end and running away from exhausted Haverford and Hopkins teams that have tried to chase them down (and I suppose Dickinson and Gettysburg each had a decent showing in there). It has to be starting to lose it's luster as they know that the other top teams are doubling and tripling guys to use against them. Plus the Olenginskis have become the leaders of the conference at 800 (despite Luk missing the finals outdoors last year). I think they have something to prove at this meet. Plus their 4x4 is very good, having already run 3:28. That required both Olenginskis on the team to do it.
That being said, I'm going to say that F&M opts in a consistent manner and goes after one more 4x8 title. This year they may need all the fresh pieces as Swat is going to be dangerous if they want to be. However, going forward this will be the most intriguing team to watch develop and choose their strategy.
5000m: Andrews
DMR: Eller, 4 guy, Generali, Whalen (potential for Andrews here if he is not developing better or Johnson if he is not on the 4x8, also Pagnelli or Hamilton could prove valuable in this spot)
4x800m: Johnson, Pawlush, Olenginski, Olenginski (potenial again for Andrews if he returns to his form of old).
Muhlenberg
As I run for Muhlenberg, it should be easier to predict what we will do. But I got nothing. There is still too much variability going on to say anything with some sort of certainity. Steve Sroka is coming back from injury while Kline and Munyan have the 5k to worry about as well as the potential to run on the DMR. Plus you have some 4x8 drama in there as well. A lot can change very quickly if guys assert themselves in the next couple weeks, but for now I think it will be something like this:
5000m: Kline, Munyan
DMR: McGetrick, 4 leg, Sroka, Kline (potential to switch around McGetrick and Sroka with Munyan, Kentwell and others)
4x800m: Kentwell, Newcomb, Elkan, Felix (potential for McGetrick, Sroka or even Kline to sneak in here and rearrange the pieces)
I also wouldn't be surprised if the 5k is scrapped to some degree and the Mules opt to stack the DM and the 4x8 with the guys they see fit. Should be interesting to watch it unfold from the front row.
Swarthmore
Another incredibly difficult team to predict. Swat in the past has been more than willing to give up individual glory for a shot at team success. However, the team has never been quite this good before. Oppenheimer, Green and White are sure fire contenders in there top events. However, we also know that Swat has already run 7:59 for 4x8 and probably wouldn't mind taking their shot at a title. Like F&M we will have to wait it out to some degree and see what happens with their priorities. Keep in mind they have a slew of 3k-5k guys with a lot of talent that they may be able to move around to a variety of places. My best bet is the following:
5000m: Russell
DMR: Green, 4 leg, White, Branch (they also have Friske, Creem, Castro-Wehr, Russell and they could easily scrap this DMR entirely and plug in those guys and do well .. Also don't be surprised if White is the 400 leg ... or better yet don't be surprised if they go all in on the DMR with their 50. leg Oppenheimer on the anchor and White and Green doing the rest ... that team can run under 10:20 and would almost definitely win gold)
Mile: Oppenheimer (deserves a chance on the big stage in my opinion), Creem, Castro-Wehr
3000m: Friske, Russell
4x800m: Oppenheimer, White, Green, Branch (go for the W with a relatively fresh group)
As you can tell, I'm not sure we won't see a stacked DM and then guys on the double in the individuals or possibly something completely different, but if I had to predict based on what I have seen in the past this is my best bet.
Dickinson
Hard to imagine Dickinson is an after thought these days in the distance events. They are going to be flat out stacked across the board, but somehow they will fly hard core under the radar with Hopkins and Haverford in a tight battle for the team title (even though from the looks of the things right now Hopkins is winning handily). Dickinson has such strong individuals it makes their relays a little bit more questionable, but I would bet they will put in their 'B' guys and not do what they have done at the past (letting someone like Steinbock anchor the DM). In my opinion Steinbock and Sansevere shouldn't touch the DM with a ten foot pole, but if Dickinson decides they want to try and win it, those are the first guys they will turn to. I don't see it being that way because I see Steinbock going for the triple threat, which is no easy feat. Here is how I see it:
5000m: Basically everybody and their mom, Steinbock, Mynatt, Clark, Smith, Sisson, Simmons, Klein, Strenta, Howard, Rinehardt
DMR: White, 4 leg, Hepner, Brady
Mile: Steinbock, Sansevere
800m: Jackson (defending champion has to have a chance to defend his title right?)
3000m: Steinbock, Mynatt, Clark, Sisson, Simmons, Klein, Steadman (if Smith qualifies him too in all likelihood)
4x800m: Jackson, Sansevere, Hepner, Bayne (possibly instead a doubling White, also possible Bayne is switched into the DM to keep Hepner fresh for this race ... But Bayne has the most potential out of any of these second tier guys)
Haverford
Haverford is very good this year and they obviously have some amazing pieces, but it is challenge to figure out exactly where they all fit. Haverford is probably the only team that is seriously analyzing how to get every single possible point out of their distance squad at this meet. What does that mean? I think it means some fresh guys in the 3k, a strong DMR and 4x8, and a heavy dose of Stadler and Marquardt. Even though Marquardt is the second fastest 3k man in conference history, I'd be stunned if Donnelly doesn't take the points in the mile, 8, 4x8 triple. It's not an easy one, but I think they will give their star a shot. I also see Stadler going after the triple. The question is how will they use guys like Roza and Sokas and Bregman? Hard to leave 4:20 milers out of a race where they could place top 5 or so and disrput a Hopkins onslaught, but I mean are you going to triple everbody? Are you going to leave sub 15 guys out of the 5k? Lots of choices for Haverford, but this is what I see.
5000m: Stadler, Bregman, Roza, Fujimori, Christian
DMR: Rada, 4 leg, Rasmussen, Sokas (could see Gorman or Stackman, but I think they want to try and snag a gold in this event if they can)
Mile: Stadler, Marquardt, Stackman, Brier
800m: Marquardt, Kenny, Dorvil
3000m: Stadler, Bregman, Roza, Fujimore, Gorman, Christian
4x800m: Marquardt, Rada, Rasmussen, Gardner (could switch this around if they aren't too attached to Keny on the 4x4)
Hopkins
Last, but certainly not least, we are looking at the army of blue jays. Haverford may chant about the army, but Hop has got so many guys and has run so many fast times while they have gone through the meet chasing that this is easily their conference meet to lose. That's why I don't think they will pay too much attention to relays and all that good stuff. They will load up the individuals and go after points. Could be misguided, but here is what I would have to guess is going down
5000m: Ochstein, Stecklair, Cerruzzi, Arnold, Dordai
DMR: Rinehart, 4 leg, Wilkes, Butler
Mile: Carey, Saliani, Pavarini, Alvarez
800m: Carey, Holmgren, Hyland, Arikalta
3000m: Ochstein, Pavarini, Arnold, Cerruzzi, Stecklair, Saliani, Butler
4x800m: Holmgren, Hyland, Rinehart, Wilkes (potential to change this one up and pull guys out of event to keep them fresher, but I don't think the 4x8 will mean much by the time Hopkins is done with the field events and such)
So that's it! I'll try to update a few things and tweak if I see fit later on.
New Balance Grand Prix
Quite the set of races up in Boston that included a world record form .... a team I didn't even know would be featured in the race! The late entry squad of Richard Jones, David Torrence, Duane Soloman and Erik Sowinski jumped in as the USA All-Stars and stole the world record right out from under the other squads in the race. It took a big time anchor leg by Sowinski and NJ-NY anchor Mike Rutt (ran a pair of 1:46s on back to back days) to get it home in quite the exciting finish. Both of the top two teams were under the old world record.
Splits that I have found:
Richard Jones 1:51.00
David Torrence 1:47.46
Duane Soloman 1:48.60
Erik Sowinski 1:46.66
7:13.11
Kyle Merber 1:49.69
Brian Gagnon 1:48.60
Robby Andrews 1:48.29
Mike Rutt 1:46.60
7:13.22
Matt Sherer 1:54.66
Cas Loxsom 1:47.04
Mark Wizzo 1:47.47
Nick Symmonds 1:49.37
7:18.52
The last squad, the Brooks Beasts, ran Matt Sherer on the lead off in his first 800m race since 2010! It ended up costing them as the best rabbit in the world did just that for 400m before falling off the pace big time. Loxsom actually did an incredible job through 600m getting the team back in the race, but faded a bit. Soloman and Andrews let Wizzo get it kinda close, but Symmonds was about 2.5 seconds back when he got the stick. Sowinski and Rutt got out hard enough that it was just a coast job for Symmonds the rest of the way.
NJ-NY basically had a time trail for the 4 spots on the A team the night before and Merbz dropped a 1:47.9 which got him upgraded. Pretty fast PR for him. Rutt ran strong and Gagnon followed, both under 1:47 with Andrews running what I believe is an indoor PB at 1:47.0x. That may have taken a little extra pop out of their legs that allowed Sowinski to edge Rutt to the line.
In other news, Rupp gets a DNF. Hopefully that is precautionary and nothing too serious. In the same race Nick Willis dropped the hammer on the field rolling home in 3:57 after a 2:04ish opening 800m. Dang that guy is fit. Certainly a favorite at Millrose coming up.
Meanwhile Ryan Hill dropped a monster 3k mark against two of the best 5k runners in the history of the world. He was a close third to Dejen Gebremeskel (2nd) and Hagos Gebrewheit (1st) running 7:34.87 to make him the 3rd fastest American indoors at that distance ... ever. He is only behind Bernard Lagat and Galen Rupp on that list. Not too bad of company ....
Garrett Heath continues to run strong with a 7:37 for 4th. He has put together a nice start to his indoor campaign as well.
Jenny Simpson was a lap miscounting away from a possible American record at 2 miles. She ran 8:44 through 3k though, which means she is clearly in great shape. Gave Defar a nice run for her money in the event.
Meanwhile, Mary Cain continued to grab headlines as she lowered her own world junior record by a fantastic 4 seconds. Cain's time of 2:35.80 is blazing for 1k and is much faster than I can run. Which is awkward. PA's own Chanelle Price dipped down to 2:36 in the 1k which is a fantastic race for her as she tries to take the next step to join the US's elite 800m women.
Splits that I have found:
Richard Jones 1:51.00
David Torrence 1:47.46
Duane Soloman 1:48.60
Erik Sowinski 1:46.66
7:13.11
Kyle Merber 1:49.69
Brian Gagnon 1:48.60
Robby Andrews 1:48.29
Mike Rutt 1:46.60
7:13.22
Matt Sherer 1:54.66
Cas Loxsom 1:47.04
Mark Wizzo 1:47.47
Nick Symmonds 1:49.37
7:18.52
The last squad, the Brooks Beasts, ran Matt Sherer on the lead off in his first 800m race since 2010! It ended up costing them as the best rabbit in the world did just that for 400m before falling off the pace big time. Loxsom actually did an incredible job through 600m getting the team back in the race, but faded a bit. Soloman and Andrews let Wizzo get it kinda close, but Symmonds was about 2.5 seconds back when he got the stick. Sowinski and Rutt got out hard enough that it was just a coast job for Symmonds the rest of the way.
NJ-NY basically had a time trail for the 4 spots on the A team the night before and Merbz dropped a 1:47.9 which got him upgraded. Pretty fast PR for him. Rutt ran strong and Gagnon followed, both under 1:47 with Andrews running what I believe is an indoor PB at 1:47.0x. That may have taken a little extra pop out of their legs that allowed Sowinski to edge Rutt to the line.
In other news, Rupp gets a DNF. Hopefully that is precautionary and nothing too serious. In the same race Nick Willis dropped the hammer on the field rolling home in 3:57 after a 2:04ish opening 800m. Dang that guy is fit. Certainly a favorite at Millrose coming up.
Meanwhile Ryan Hill dropped a monster 3k mark against two of the best 5k runners in the history of the world. He was a close third to Dejen Gebremeskel (2nd) and Hagos Gebrewheit (1st) running 7:34.87 to make him the 3rd fastest American indoors at that distance ... ever. He is only behind Bernard Lagat and Galen Rupp on that list. Not too bad of company ....
Garrett Heath continues to run strong with a 7:37 for 4th. He has put together a nice start to his indoor campaign as well.
Jenny Simpson was a lap miscounting away from a possible American record at 2 miles. She ran 8:44 through 3k though, which means she is clearly in great shape. Gave Defar a nice run for her money in the event.
Meanwhile, Mary Cain continued to grab headlines as she lowered her own world junior record by a fantastic 4 seconds. Cain's time of 2:35.80 is blazing for 1k and is much faster than I can run. Which is awkward. PA's own Chanelle Price dipped down to 2:36 in the 1k which is a fantastic race for her as she tries to take the next step to join the US's elite 800m women.
Millrose Games Entries
Here are some things I picked out of the early Millrose entries
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armory-public-files/2014-nyrr-millrose-games-entries.pdf
First off they have a club DMR race which should be kinda cool. NJNY is trotting out their 'B' squad guys who may not be big names but they do feature recognizable names (especially for PA guys) like Trevor VanAckeren and Sadiki White (NJNY A) and Nick Crits and Wayne Bartholomew both formerly of LaSalle (NJNY B). Also Haverford College and Bonner High School alumn Andrew Golato is on a Garden State TC squad. It will be interesting to see what kind of 400m legs each of these squads have considering that must of these club squads are distance centric and a 400 is really stretching some of these guys speed. Sadiki can probably run something pretty nice and he looks to be slated to be his team's 400 man.
PA's Christian Brissett of Cheltenham (repping SOL American) is in the 55 as PA's lone representative in the event.
I'll be very excited to hopefully catch the Men's 4x800m race at the Millrose games. The top teams in the race appear to be:
Duke (featuring PA's Kyle Moran, Alec Kunzweiler and Nate McClafferty)
Penn (featuring Mato Bekelja and Drew Magaha)
Villanova (featuring Chris Fitzsimmons, a 1:47 high school split to his name, Josh Lampron who has run down around 4 flat in the mile, Ben Malone, a stud kicker and freshman from New Jersey, and Mike Palmisano former Princeton runner and PA state champ who recently ran about 4:08 for 1600m split at PSU).
You can probably tell from my lengthy explanation of who is on which relay that I think Nova has the legs to take down a title in this race. The somewhat humorous part is that is likely their B team when you consider Jordy Williamysz, Sam McEntee (I think he has eligibility left?) and Sam Ellison are just watching court side.
I'm not usually into the 60m hurdles, but Ashton Eaton and Trey Hardee, two top flight decathletes are battling Andrew Riley (former NCAA 110 hurdles and 100m not hurdles champion in the same year which is pretty sick) and Terrence Trammell. I'm a big Eaton fan so I will be pulling for him in this spot, although it is likely that he won't be quite as ready to run fast as the other guys who train exclusively for hurdles.
Worth noting, Ashton's new wife and medalist at the world championships in the hep, Brianna Theisen (Eaton) will be also contesting the 60m hurdles.
The women's 3k should be really fun to watch, even though it has slipped under the radar as a marquee event thanks to all the record buzz from Cain and Symmonds. The race features stud collegian Abby D'Agostino, who is the best up and coming 5k girl in the US fresh off her first sub 4:30 mile against Kim Conley who is coming off a strong showing in the mile this year (4:24!) which shows she is not ready to relinquish her top spot among US 5k women just yet. These two along with Betsy Saina, Ashley Higginson and Sara Hall should set things up for a nice assault on an all time type mark. Abby eyes another Simpson based college record (8:42.03) while Conley will chase a sub 8:40 mark, which only three US women have done indoors.
The men's 60m dash features some big names: Ryan Baily, Marvin Bracy, D'Angelo Cherry, Amer Webb and Isiah Young. Absolutely stacked field.
Ashton Eaton and Trey Hardee will continue their workout later on in the meet in the pole vault against Brad Walker.
The elite man will contest a 300m dash, not oft contested, that will include Wallace Spearmon (current US #1 in the 200m) against Manteo Mitchell, better known as the guy who put the team on his back running the 4x4 with a broken leg though.
Here is another race that may have caught your attention: the 2000m! How about this for a field: Evan Jager, Donn Cabral, Patrick MacGregor, Bernard Lagat, Dan Huling, Andrew Bumbalough, Travis Mahoney, and David Torrence. This race features the last 3 Olympic steeplechasers from the US, super miler Bernard Lagat and David Torrence who has recently lowered his PR to 3:33.23 in the 1500m! That may give him the fastest 1500m mark out of anyone in this field over the last 5 years or so. Lagat is certainly an expert tactician but is his speed finally going to go? Jager ran about 3:58 last weekend, but can he bounce back and get a strong 2k mark in over a field of guys with solid kicks? I feel like somehow Lagat is going to find a way to pull this out. I don't really want to see it, but something tells me it will happen. Either that or a huge upset from MacGregor.
PA's Tony Russell is the lone boy in the Millrose field for the mile. Should be fun to see how he competes. PA has four girls competing in the event including footlocker national champion Tessa Barrett who is actually the slowest qualifier out of our girls. Kennedy Weisner leads the charge.
The women finally get a Wannamaker mile type headliner at Millrose with a field that includes multiple time US champ Morgan Uceny, Sarah Brown, recent grad and NCAA champ Emma Coburn (won the mile indoors, but is primarily a steeplechaser), super kickers Emily Lipari and Cory McGee, and reigning US champ Treniere Moser.
And oh yeah, perhaps the two greatest high school girls of all time: Mary Cain and Alexa Efraimson. Alexa made huge headlines when she dropped the 3k record down to 9:00.16! As a high school junior herself! She will continue to try and be absolutely Cain like as she travels across the country to try her hand at the mile. Cain has been no slouch herself, coming off a blazing 4:24.11 mark where she ran away from a great field and just missed the World Junior Record in the mile. The WORLD junior RECORD. But hey, Cain is going to have her hands full in this race. Coburn and Moser aren't messing around and Lipari and McGee have kicks that may be able to match Cain's.
But I'm buying in to the Cain hype hard core. I got her for the win and the world junior record. Efraimson still has to prove to me she is on Cain level, but she probably will drop at least a 4:35 which is solid for a high school junior. And super impressive for a high school junior girl.
But that mile race may not even be the best race of the day if you can believe that. The 1k has a phenomenal field which includes France's Pierre Ambrose Bosse who is one of the best young up and coming 800m men in the world. He will look for some revenge against Silver medalist and meet headliner Nick Symmonds, who recently ran 1:48 with his Brooks Beast squad mates in an open 800m in Charlotte. He will be making a world record attempt in the 4x8 before then and look to continue his momentum into the 1k in a chase for the American record. 2:17.86 is the mark to beat in this one.
Symmonds will be toed around the track by his trusty rabbit Matt Sherer who should help get them around the track in record pace. After Sherer's job is done Symmonds will be racing guys like Erik Sowinski, Mike Rutt, Tyler Mulder and Robby Andrews. Mulder has the 1:44 low PR in the 8. Sowinski boasts of an AR in the 600m and fantastic closing speed. Rutt has quietly been a strong and consistent 800m guy who just had a solid mile not too long ago at the armory. He will also be coming off that 4x8 looking for revenge. And of course Robby Andrews the streaky fire ball with a PR of 2:17.90 indoors last year, just off the US record.
Honestly, I think this record should come down, assuming they keep it reasonably honest. This mark isn't particularly scary, I just don't think anyone has taken a real shot at it. If Robby keeps his head in it, this has always been his event to lose, but I think Symmonds is going to come ready to play and represent the beasts to the tune of a kicking win over Mulder. But certainly don't sleep on Mike Rutt. One of these top tier pro races will feature a stunning upset. In this race the guy I see doing it is Rutt.
Women's 800m has got Ajee Wilson going after the WJR in the 800m and her first sub 2 mark indoors. She had a huge year last year that included a world championship final and a variety of sub 2 minute performances. She is a fantastic talent at such a young age and once cheered for my good friend Alex Weiner at a track meet. I run in his spikes now a days. Ajee runs faster than me at 800m. I'm not sure where I'm going with this, so I'm going to just move on.
The Men's Mile! It is always a great event and it features guys like Miles Batty, Kirubel Erassa, Nate Brannen, Brian Gagnon, Lawi Lalang, Will Leer, Leo Manzano, Cam Levins, Craig Miller, Austin Mudd, Chris O'Hare, Alan Webb and Nick Willis! So yeah I basically just listed the entire field besides John Gregorek of Columbia (rabbiting?)
This race is really cool because there is so much depth and talent. I got Nick Willis winning because he has been on a hot streak for some time now, but my #2 is Lawi. Lawi is coming off a 7:44 3k in dominating fashion which is just nuts. Manzano is never one to sleep on but he hasn't been relevant in a non-world championship qualifying race is a while. Austin Mudd is a sleeper if he can hold on to what is sure to be a blazing pace and kick. Chris O'Hare and Miles Batty have both set NCAA records on this track for the indoor mile in this race each of the last two years. I wouldn't be surprised if Lawi drops it down even farther this year, but that doesn't mean Batty and O'Hare aren't sleepers here.
And lastly, brief shout out to the boys from State College, Penncrest, and Henderson for punching your ticket to Millrose! Not 100% positive how Henderson got in there but great news for them! We will see what their 4x8 can do without Russell. State College is the best team from PA in this race as far as I can tell and maybe can even mix it up for a win! Should be cool to see!
(Small editors note here, Genezebe Dibaba of Ethiopia has run 8:16.60 and 3:55.17 in the past two weeks to set world indoor records in both the indoor 3k and 1500 for woman. Holy mother of pearl that is fast ... she won't be at Millrose but I figured it would still be worth mentioning)
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armory-public-files/2014-nyrr-millrose-games-entries.pdf
First off they have a club DMR race which should be kinda cool. NJNY is trotting out their 'B' squad guys who may not be big names but they do feature recognizable names (especially for PA guys) like Trevor VanAckeren and Sadiki White (NJNY A) and Nick Crits and Wayne Bartholomew both formerly of LaSalle (NJNY B). Also Haverford College and Bonner High School alumn Andrew Golato is on a Garden State TC squad. It will be interesting to see what kind of 400m legs each of these squads have considering that must of these club squads are distance centric and a 400 is really stretching some of these guys speed. Sadiki can probably run something pretty nice and he looks to be slated to be his team's 400 man.
PA's Christian Brissett of Cheltenham (repping SOL American) is in the 55 as PA's lone representative in the event.
I'll be very excited to hopefully catch the Men's 4x800m race at the Millrose games. The top teams in the race appear to be:
Duke (featuring PA's Kyle Moran, Alec Kunzweiler and Nate McClafferty)
Penn (featuring Mato Bekelja and Drew Magaha)
Villanova (featuring Chris Fitzsimmons, a 1:47 high school split to his name, Josh Lampron who has run down around 4 flat in the mile, Ben Malone, a stud kicker and freshman from New Jersey, and Mike Palmisano former Princeton runner and PA state champ who recently ran about 4:08 for 1600m split at PSU).
You can probably tell from my lengthy explanation of who is on which relay that I think Nova has the legs to take down a title in this race. The somewhat humorous part is that is likely their B team when you consider Jordy Williamysz, Sam McEntee (I think he has eligibility left?) and Sam Ellison are just watching court side.
I'm not usually into the 60m hurdles, but Ashton Eaton and Trey Hardee, two top flight decathletes are battling Andrew Riley (former NCAA 110 hurdles and 100m not hurdles champion in the same year which is pretty sick) and Terrence Trammell. I'm a big Eaton fan so I will be pulling for him in this spot, although it is likely that he won't be quite as ready to run fast as the other guys who train exclusively for hurdles.
Worth noting, Ashton's new wife and medalist at the world championships in the hep, Brianna Theisen (Eaton) will be also contesting the 60m hurdles.
The women's 3k should be really fun to watch, even though it has slipped under the radar as a marquee event thanks to all the record buzz from Cain and Symmonds. The race features stud collegian Abby D'Agostino, who is the best up and coming 5k girl in the US fresh off her first sub 4:30 mile against Kim Conley who is coming off a strong showing in the mile this year (4:24!) which shows she is not ready to relinquish her top spot among US 5k women just yet. These two along with Betsy Saina, Ashley Higginson and Sara Hall should set things up for a nice assault on an all time type mark. Abby eyes another Simpson based college record (8:42.03) while Conley will chase a sub 8:40 mark, which only three US women have done indoors.
The men's 60m dash features some big names: Ryan Baily, Marvin Bracy, D'Angelo Cherry, Amer Webb and Isiah Young. Absolutely stacked field.
Ashton Eaton and Trey Hardee will continue their workout later on in the meet in the pole vault against Brad Walker.
The elite man will contest a 300m dash, not oft contested, that will include Wallace Spearmon (current US #1 in the 200m) against Manteo Mitchell, better known as the guy who put the team on his back running the 4x4 with a broken leg though.
Here is another race that may have caught your attention: the 2000m! How about this for a field: Evan Jager, Donn Cabral, Patrick MacGregor, Bernard Lagat, Dan Huling, Andrew Bumbalough, Travis Mahoney, and David Torrence. This race features the last 3 Olympic steeplechasers from the US, super miler Bernard Lagat and David Torrence who has recently lowered his PR to 3:33.23 in the 1500m! That may give him the fastest 1500m mark out of anyone in this field over the last 5 years or so. Lagat is certainly an expert tactician but is his speed finally going to go? Jager ran about 3:58 last weekend, but can he bounce back and get a strong 2k mark in over a field of guys with solid kicks? I feel like somehow Lagat is going to find a way to pull this out. I don't really want to see it, but something tells me it will happen. Either that or a huge upset from MacGregor.
PA's Tony Russell is the lone boy in the Millrose field for the mile. Should be fun to see how he competes. PA has four girls competing in the event including footlocker national champion Tessa Barrett who is actually the slowest qualifier out of our girls. Kennedy Weisner leads the charge.
The women finally get a Wannamaker mile type headliner at Millrose with a field that includes multiple time US champ Morgan Uceny, Sarah Brown, recent grad and NCAA champ Emma Coburn (won the mile indoors, but is primarily a steeplechaser), super kickers Emily Lipari and Cory McGee, and reigning US champ Treniere Moser.
And oh yeah, perhaps the two greatest high school girls of all time: Mary Cain and Alexa Efraimson. Alexa made huge headlines when she dropped the 3k record down to 9:00.16! As a high school junior herself! She will continue to try and be absolutely Cain like as she travels across the country to try her hand at the mile. Cain has been no slouch herself, coming off a blazing 4:24.11 mark where she ran away from a great field and just missed the World Junior Record in the mile. The WORLD junior RECORD. But hey, Cain is going to have her hands full in this race. Coburn and Moser aren't messing around and Lipari and McGee have kicks that may be able to match Cain's.
But I'm buying in to the Cain hype hard core. I got her for the win and the world junior record. Efraimson still has to prove to me she is on Cain level, but she probably will drop at least a 4:35 which is solid for a high school junior. And super impressive for a high school junior girl.
But that mile race may not even be the best race of the day if you can believe that. The 1k has a phenomenal field which includes France's Pierre Ambrose Bosse who is one of the best young up and coming 800m men in the world. He will look for some revenge against Silver medalist and meet headliner Nick Symmonds, who recently ran 1:48 with his Brooks Beast squad mates in an open 800m in Charlotte. He will be making a world record attempt in the 4x8 before then and look to continue his momentum into the 1k in a chase for the American record. 2:17.86 is the mark to beat in this one.
Symmonds will be toed around the track by his trusty rabbit Matt Sherer who should help get them around the track in record pace. After Sherer's job is done Symmonds will be racing guys like Erik Sowinski, Mike Rutt, Tyler Mulder and Robby Andrews. Mulder has the 1:44 low PR in the 8. Sowinski boasts of an AR in the 600m and fantastic closing speed. Rutt has quietly been a strong and consistent 800m guy who just had a solid mile not too long ago at the armory. He will also be coming off that 4x8 looking for revenge. And of course Robby Andrews the streaky fire ball with a PR of 2:17.90 indoors last year, just off the US record.
Honestly, I think this record should come down, assuming they keep it reasonably honest. This mark isn't particularly scary, I just don't think anyone has taken a real shot at it. If Robby keeps his head in it, this has always been his event to lose, but I think Symmonds is going to come ready to play and represent the beasts to the tune of a kicking win over Mulder. But certainly don't sleep on Mike Rutt. One of these top tier pro races will feature a stunning upset. In this race the guy I see doing it is Rutt.
Women's 800m has got Ajee Wilson going after the WJR in the 800m and her first sub 2 mark indoors. She had a huge year last year that included a world championship final and a variety of sub 2 minute performances. She is a fantastic talent at such a young age and once cheered for my good friend Alex Weiner at a track meet. I run in his spikes now a days. Ajee runs faster than me at 800m. I'm not sure where I'm going with this, so I'm going to just move on.
The Men's Mile! It is always a great event and it features guys like Miles Batty, Kirubel Erassa, Nate Brannen, Brian Gagnon, Lawi Lalang, Will Leer, Leo Manzano, Cam Levins, Craig Miller, Austin Mudd, Chris O'Hare, Alan Webb and Nick Willis! So yeah I basically just listed the entire field besides John Gregorek of Columbia (rabbiting?)
This race is really cool because there is so much depth and talent. I got Nick Willis winning because he has been on a hot streak for some time now, but my #2 is Lawi. Lawi is coming off a 7:44 3k in dominating fashion which is just nuts. Manzano is never one to sleep on but he hasn't been relevant in a non-world championship qualifying race is a while. Austin Mudd is a sleeper if he can hold on to what is sure to be a blazing pace and kick. Chris O'Hare and Miles Batty have both set NCAA records on this track for the indoor mile in this race each of the last two years. I wouldn't be surprised if Lawi drops it down even farther this year, but that doesn't mean Batty and O'Hare aren't sleepers here.
And lastly, brief shout out to the boys from State College, Penncrest, and Henderson for punching your ticket to Millrose! Not 100% positive how Henderson got in there but great news for them! We will see what their 4x8 can do without Russell. State College is the best team from PA in this race as far as I can tell and maybe can even mix it up for a win! Should be cool to see!
(Small editors note here, Genezebe Dibaba of Ethiopia has run 8:16.60 and 3:55.17 in the past two weeks to set world indoor records in both the indoor 3k and 1500 for woman. Holy mother of pearl that is fast ... she won't be at Millrose but I figured it would still be worth mentioning)
5 Quick Things
Absolutely swamped with work so this is the fastest 5 things I can get out in between classes:
1. Oregon is stacked and Eddy Ches is for real, the DMR at NCAAs with them and PSU is going to be amazing. Don't sleep on Nova either with Stanford being the deep sleeper
2. Wissahickon 4x4 on the PTFCA scene is shaping up as a nice sleeper pick ... they just ran 3:30 at Glenn Mills
3. Colin Martin was ready to roll ... TSTCA will shake things up nicely for the east coasters
4. Charlie Marquardt 4:10! Centennial conference throws down in a few more 3ks and miles to make the conference list look like it could compete with a few D1 conferences ... With Steinbock throwing down an 8:24 of his own, there are 4 under 8:30 in the 3k with a boat load more under 8:40 that includes new addition Greg Clark from Dickinson ... the 800m still doesn't look all that deep yet, however ... maybe the Olenginskis will change that soon ...
5. I'm not sure NJ-NY or Brooks is going to set that record anymore, I haven't been all that impressed by what they have done so far but hey ... I will probably go back and forth on this like 5 more times between now and race day
PS All the pro runners play settlers of cattan ... I'm not kidding
1. Oregon is stacked and Eddy Ches is for real, the DMR at NCAAs with them and PSU is going to be amazing. Don't sleep on Nova either with Stanford being the deep sleeper
2. Wissahickon 4x4 on the PTFCA scene is shaping up as a nice sleeper pick ... they just ran 3:30 at Glenn Mills
3. Colin Martin was ready to roll ... TSTCA will shake things up nicely for the east coasters
4. Charlie Marquardt 4:10! Centennial conference throws down in a few more 3ks and miles to make the conference list look like it could compete with a few D1 conferences ... With Steinbock throwing down an 8:24 of his own, there are 4 under 8:30 in the 3k with a boat load more under 8:40 that includes new addition Greg Clark from Dickinson ... the 800m still doesn't look all that deep yet, however ... maybe the Olenginskis will change that soon ...
5. I'm not sure NJ-NY or Brooks is going to set that record anymore, I haven't been all that impressed by what they have done so far but hey ... I will probably go back and forth on this like 5 more times between now and race day
PS All the pro runners play settlers of cattan ... I'm not kidding
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