The 3k: Unfairly Underrated

Anyone know what Max Norris ran before he dominated the indoor state championships with his 8:28 bombshell of a 3k? 8:48 and 4:26. The 4:26 came in a stacked field at Lehigh, the 8:48 came in the early season against fellow state medalist Dan Savage, fresh off XC fitness.

What has Dominic Deluca done this season? Well I'll tell you one thing, his resume is much more impressive. Deluca dropped a 4:22 to dominate against stud miler Sam Ritz in Deluca's off event. He also dropped an early season 8:44 in another impressive victory over Cole Nissley. Deluca is coming off a season that featured a AA state XC title and has carried his momentum onto flat tracks with little competition for him. He has not yet been pushed to his max ability this season and at states, I think low 8:30s is certainly possible.

Especially when he will be dealing with Colin Martin.

Sure Ethan grabbed headlines last year by rocketing an 8:33 indoors for 2nd place at states and dropping a nice kick outdoors to grab the state title in brutal conditions, but this year has been Colin's year. He had a very strong XC season, finishing with a 12th place finish at the Footlocker Regional, almost making him a surprise Footlocker Finalist. Now Colin has opened up with a dominating 3k win and a stunning 9:13 3200m! 9:13 for 3200m! This is worth about 8:36 for 3k (the state will seed him down around 8:38 because their conversion system is kind of wrong, but it is easy to understand). Nobody, not even super star Tony Russell was in 8:36 shape before the state championship.

Put Martin and Deluca against each other and you got yourself a very interesting race up front. That isn't even accounting for the likes of Ross Wilson (one of the most impressive long distnace race stretches of all time last spring), Kevin James (1:56 to-8:57 range already this indoors and he is still getting back) and newcomers to the top notch group in Patrick Reilly, Paul Power, Chris Cummings, Christian Kardish, and Jake Brophy.

And I still believe more guys will punch qualifying tickets between now and the state championship at Meet of Champs and TSTCA Championships (if they can somehow manage to get that meet together, we can't leave the NA guys at home if we can help it).

But even without the extra qualifiers, we have 16 guys under the SQS this year and only a few of those names won't try their hand at it. Kevin James probably won't run because of his relay obligations. There is a chance Wilson will try the mile, but he is significantly better off at 3000m and I think he should stay there. Christian Kardish will likely drop because of his DMR anchor duties. Kazanjian may pull out in favor of the 4x8. Bilotta is almost certain to go mile-DMR double as well.

Beyond that I don't see anyone for whom it makes sense to jump ship. So worse case scenario we are looking at 11 guys (much more likely to be something like 13) which is a perfectly acceptable field in my mind.

Last year, I think the fan base got a little spoiled thanks to a truly exceptional field at the state championships. Last year it took 8:42 to medal! That's crazy talk right there! 16 guys broke 9 minutes in the race with 9 under 8:50.

2012 took 8:57 to medal and 8:39 to win
2011 took 8:58 to medal and 8:46 got 3rd
2010 took 8:49 to medal and 8:38 to win, just one guy was under 8:42
2009 took 9:02 to medal and 8:44 got you 3rd

So for 4 straight years before 2013, there were a TOTAL of 6 guys under 8:42! Last year we had 8 in one race!

We are spoiled people, just straight spoiled. This year's crop is much more likely to look like a better up front version of the 2010 meet, which up until last year was one of the deepest 3ks of the decade (for the record 2008 was fairly strong with 8:53 being the final medal spot and 5 guys under 8:42).

So yeah maybe this race doesn't appear to have the big superstar name, but Dominic Deluca and Colin Martin are two guys on the verge of super stardom. Ross Wilson and Kevin James are probably 2-3 on my list of long distance guys in the state behind Russell in terms of potential to run the fastest 3200m of the year in PA. And might I just say that Jake Brophy is a straight beast. Let him hang around and he might go ahead and blow someone's doors off at the end. He very well might be the guy to win the darn thing as just a sophomore. Then we will forever remember this meet as his coming out party.

Reilly, Marston, Cummings, Kardish, Power, Comber, Nissley and Kazanjian have XC performances that indicate sub 8:50 is very possible for the whole bunch. Already I'm looking at a field of 10 guys under 8:50. That isn't even including the likes of McDevitt, Pearlman and Bilotta.

And oh yeah, I bet there are still a slew of guys knocking on the door trying to come in.

I'm sorry folks, but a field of about 10 sub 8:50 guys is not only impressive, it is the deepest 3k in state history. We may not see sub 8:30 at states (although I'm not ready to guarentee that at this moment in time if someone is willing to keep the pace fast), but I think when all is said and done the 3k will prove to be anything but a snooze fest.