USA Championship 1500m

So here is the honest truth of the matter. There is still no word from USATF on if this is going to be a two heat final or they are going to set up a qualifying round (or perhaps they might just even cut the field based on their own discretion, the USATF isn't exactly the most logical of governing bodies sometimes).

It makes it very tough to predict who will win out in a race such as this. If you have a two heat final, you have to throw tactics out the window and just start gunning for the fastest mark. It's very possible a group of the best guys is not going to get out hard enough and our world team ends up being Josh Mcalray and Travis Burkstrand.

When you have assembled a field that includes Rupp, Lomong, Hill, Leer and Mazano (just to name a few) you want to see 2 of those guys sporting the flag overseas.

So I will give you my best bet who I think will win as if they are all running in the same heat. Is this likely? No it's impossible to fit the roughly 20 entrants on the track all at the same time without a fall or push or a Will Leer crying interview afterwards. But I will assume everyone stays up right and we have a typical, tactical championship final. It's my best way to represent this complicated situation with predictions, although it is almost certainly not the real life situation that will unfold (please, USATF, please).

As before, you can find the full list of accepted entries either a few posts down on my blog or on the usatf website. That may help you follow along as I will be picking out a few key names.

Like any race without a rabbit and a title on the line I expect to see a tactical affair over 1500m out in Albuquerque. This combined with the altitude should make for slow times, so really you just throw those out the window and pick who the best racers are. Realistically, the following names are guys with potential to be top 5 in this race:

Galen Rupp, David Torrence, Ryan Hill, Will Leer, Lopez Lomong, Leo Manzano, Riley Masters, Garrett Heath, Patrick Casey, Craig Miller (PA don't play), and Duncan Phillips.

From this group the guys who boast an A standard for the world championships are as follows:
Torrence, Heath, Manzano, Leer and Miller

But I also think, if I understand the rules correctly, anyone who ran sub 3:58.00 last year indoors is also got to go. I think that extends the list to include Lomong, Rupp, and Hill with a chance that Casey and/or Masters got it last year as well (I'd have to check TFRRS to be sure about anything).

I checked, just Casey not Masters for the A standard.

So that may compel some people to push the pace and try and make the race a sub 3:41 type effort. That being said, if it's quick that just plays right into the hands of the guys who have run well under 4 minutes before in their life, so I doubt somebody like David Torrence will be shaking in his boots off fast fractions.

Tentatively, I feel that Phillips, Masters and Miller just aren't quite on the upper echelon of runners. Miller is very, very good but he has never broken through from a "finalist" type to a "contender". He will be in the hunt, and may find a way to squeak out a 3rd or 4th finish if things get crazy, but I doubt see any of these guys being ready to be top 5 in this race.

I really like the roll that both Garrett Heath and Ryan Hill have been on recently. Hill especially. Hill clocked a blazing 7:34 3k putting him #3 on the US AT list behind just Lagat and Rupp. Special group. Meanwhile, Heath has ran some quality miles after a bit of a breakthrough 3:34 performance last spring/summer. He ran a 3:38.89 already indoors (I believe this was en route to his Mile win at the Armory in something around 3:55.

I see Hill as a sleeper type for the win and Heath as a top 5 guy just riding momentum. Hard to pick against some of the savvy vets in this field, but these guys are in my top 5.

Two guys you might be surprised to see me leave out are Leo Manzano and Lopez Lomong. I don't have either of them in my top 5. This is probably stupid for a bunch of reasons. First, these guys have the two best 1500m PBs of anyone in the field (admittedly from a couple years back by now). Secondly, both of them basically ran like garbage all spring/summer last year (no offense) but still managed to have their best races of the season when it counted and get themselves on the world championship team. Unbelievable how that works out sometimes.

That being said, Lopez has looked shaky and injured for a steady couple months now and has been a non factor this indoor season. Leo had a somewhat promising 3:56 showing at Millrose but was still way off the front group. Leo is the streakiest US miler, probably ever, so you never know which Leo will show up at the big meet. He is still unsponsored and that's what worries me. Being unsponsored may be really hurting his training and I think it finally all catches up to him this weekend for the first time in a (somewhat) meaningful race.

Galen Rupp is in my top 5 no doubt. That guy is in absolutely monster shape. Worth noting also is that his rabbit, Taylor Gilland, for each of his recent record assaults is entered in the race at USAs with a 3:58 seed mark. Should be interesting to see if that gives Rupp extra comfort at all after his last mishap in Boston.

Will Leer also is in my top 5. Coming off his 3:52 mark from Millrose he seems on top of his game right now and he has the kick and tactical savvy to perform well in a meet such as this.

Now out of the last two, David Torrence and Patrick Casey, I'm going with the youngster Casey over the established vet in Torrence. I like Torrence a lot as a strong runner, but I think Casey will be more prepared for this race given his recent 3:58 domination up at UW. He is training with a nice group of new and up and coming runners out at OTC and I think we will have a young blood up there mixing it up with some big name pros.

So out of this top 5 how does it shape out? I really like Hill, the guy is clearly very fit and is not afraid of anyone, coming off a battle with a couple of world championship/olympic silver medalists in Boston. He really has the potential to surprise. That being said, I think the 1500m is a bit out of his wheelhouse and he likely will have run the 3k the day before (perhaps he will even end up dropping the 1500m completely if he makes the 3k world team) so for that reason, I don't think he comes out on top.

**Also worth noting the 3k is the day before the 1500m and Rupp, Hill, Leer, Heath, Miller, Lomong Quigley, and Cabral are all names that are slotted down for doubling**

It will be very interesting to see who can bounce back after the 3k the night before, further complicating the picture and leaving room for the upset. I'm not too worried about this top group doubling, but if somebody like Heath or Leer or Hill pulls out of the 3k to focus their efforts more on this event, they could be dangerous (even someone like Miller could seize the opportunity to kick people down on fresh legs if he drops the 3000).

Ultimately, I think 3k or not this is Will Leer's race to lose. He has the best kick and the best qualifying mark by a decent margin. Rupp is strong, but I'm not sure he is quite fast enough. If he tries to run away with it too early, he will be tired for the bell and Leer is fit enough to run at least 3:52 pace with a kick at the end which is probably down around 3:36ish through 1500m. That's very quick. I think Heath is surprising up front, especially if he ditches the 3k, but he won't quite beat out the big names of Leer and Rupp.

If things break right, Casey could be the biggest surprise of them all and sneak even into the top 2 spots. But in all likelihood I just don't see him being on these other guys level right now.

I have:
1. Leer
2. Rupp
3. Heath
4. Hill
5. Casey
6. Manzano
7. Miller
8. Torrence

That whole group could be within 2 seconds or so if one another if things all break right with the top 2 likely pulling away at the end of the race. This race is ripe with spoilers and potential upsets so don't miss out on an exciting distance concluding event this weekend.