So we are at the point in the season now where the Conference picture is starting to come together a little clearer. Before I really get into my analysis of who is going to run what as of right now, let me first note a few things about the conference. This year the 5000m is on Saturday while the rest of the events come on Sunday. This means that the 5000m-3000m double is all the more feasible and that the 5k-DMR double is now not out of the question (although still fairly unlikely). Just about everybody at the top level who runs the 5k is likely throwing their name down for the 3k as well, there isn't much of a point in resting them if they are qualified. And really there isn't too much incentive to rest a guy to keep him fresh for the 3k.
Also I have to note that the 800m isn't looking quite as deep as it has in years past. Sure there are the big front runners in the race, but considering the 4x8 and 800s relative proximity and the importance many schools place on the relay, it is very possible that some slower times and less well known names will score. Many of the mid-range guys who are around 2 flat would drop out in favor of the 4x8 in most years, but this year those guys are top 12ish guys. So for example Swat, who has always been a team willing to sacrifice individuals for relays, has 3 guys at 1:57 or faster, giving them 3 potential top 8 seeds. But those guys may opt to try and win a 4x8 title and all scratch out. Hyland and Rasmussen are prototype relay guys, but could still possibly end up scorers. F&M has bowed out of the open 8 every year in order to capture 4x8 gold and may be in favor of doing that once more this season. So we are looking, as of now, at a variety of 2 flat guys who could sneak a point.
Here is the group that I project will run the 800 with a list of a few possible others:
1. Andrew Carey, Hopkins
2. Trevor Holmgren, Hopkins
3. Charlie Marquardt, Haverford
4. Gebby Kenny, Haverford
5. Drew Mackin, Ursinus
6. Jon Jackson, Dickinson
7. Jake Zamostny, McDaniel
8. Chris Gardner, Haverford
9. Arvind Arikitia, Hopkins
Those are the only guys out of the top 25 in the conference that I have competing! A 2:03 guy is 9th in the toughest distance conference on this side of the Mississippi!
But there are all of these guys who I see saving it for the relay that may opt to switch in:
Oppenheimer, Green, White, Rasmussen, Hyland, Hepner, Branch, Rada, Olenginski, Olenginski ... the list goes on
Now the field looks a little bit more intimidating and more like a centennial conference field should look.
So keeping all of this in mind here is what I see happening for each distance team in the conference:
McDaniel
Surprisingly, this squad actually has nice relay potential this year. They have already run sub 8:20 in the 4x8 despite not having a clear 4th leg. They have a 2 flat and a 2:02 guy on the roster as well as Chris Jones who had a nice XC season this year. But Zamostny, the 2 flat guy, has a real chance of scoring in the aforementioned bizzare 800 scenario. This, in combination with the lack of a clear 4th leg makes me think McDaniel will opt for something along the lines of:
DMR: Merkel, 4 leg, Zamostny, Jones
800m: Zamostny
4x800m: Merkel, Zamostny, Jones, Lapenta
There is potential for some rearranging of the DMR legs if they feel Merkel and Zamostny are better off on longer legs. Also we could see Merkel in the mile or Zamostny pull out of the 800m in order to give his squad the best chance at doing well in both relays.
Ursinus
Ursinus really has two things going for them: Andrew Mackin and Vinny Flood. They could try to use them to throw together a solid DM with one more half way decent 800m leg, but I think they understand that Mackin will do them the most good if he is fresh in the 800. Therefore, no real point of wasting Flood on the DM. He can try and sneak a point in a depleted mile field and then they can bring them back to give their best shot at snagging a point in the 4x8 (although the way the field is shaping up they are almost a definite 9th in both relays). So here is what I would guess:
DMR: some combination of Slade, Wacker, Rudich, Ammons and Hartop with a 400 guy in there
Mile: Flood
800m: Mackin
4x800m: Flood, Mackin, Slade, Wacker (if healthy, otherwise Ammons)
There is potentially here to try for something magical in the DM, but I'd be pretty surprised. Mackin is coming on quickly as a title hopeful in the open 8, they gotta keep him fresh.
Gettysburg
Gettysburg's decision to unleash Sharp and Rausch in the open 8 really changed the balance of power in the entire conference meet as Sharp's fast pace led to the medals falling into the slow heat. Now the question is will Gettysburg look to repeat this feat with the less talented duo of Hill and Hovrath. Rausch may come back and some point this season, but with no races under his belt it's hard to rely on him. Gettysburg is tricky because they don't seem to have enough pieces to really attack the 4x8, but the 4x8 is their favorite event to attack. They have done a pretty solid job in that event as well. If I had to take a stab at predicting, given only what I have seen so far, here's my best bet
DMR: Brown, 4 guy, Horvath, Taber
800m: Hill
4x800m: Hill, Horvath, Brown, Wojick
Now obviously all this can change with the emergence of a healthy Rausch. I also could see Hill being pulled from the open 8 in favor of a bit more stacked off a DMR (Hill likely being the 1200m man in this situation). Gettysburg also has the pieces to run a decent DMR without using any of their key 800m legs (if Rausch comes back) so there is also the outside chance they keep everyone fresh to attack the relay. I'd say that's the least likely situation (although they have like 7 guys at 4:46 or faster to at the very least fill in the slow heats of the mile).
Franklin and Marshall
The biggest question when it comes to F&M will be whether or not they will insist on continued their 4x8 tradition. They have won it the last two years simply by saving all their pieces until the very end and running away from exhausted Haverford and Hopkins teams that have tried to chase them down (and I suppose Dickinson and Gettysburg each had a decent showing in there). It has to be starting to lose it's luster as they know that the other top teams are doubling and tripling guys to use against them. Plus the Olenginskis have become the leaders of the conference at 800 (despite Luk missing the finals outdoors last year). I think they have something to prove at this meet. Plus their 4x4 is very good, having already run 3:28. That required both Olenginskis on the team to do it.
That being said, I'm going to say that F&M opts in a consistent manner and goes after one more 4x8 title. This year they may need all the fresh pieces as Swat is going to be dangerous if they want to be. However, going forward this will be the most intriguing team to watch develop and choose their strategy.
5000m: Andrews
DMR: Eller, 4 guy, Generali, Whalen (potential for Andrews here if he is not developing better or Johnson if he is not on the 4x8, also Pagnelli or Hamilton could prove valuable in this spot)
4x800m: Johnson, Pawlush, Olenginski, Olenginski (potenial again for Andrews if he returns to his form of old).
Muhlenberg
As I run for Muhlenberg, it should be easier to predict what we will do. But I got nothing. There is still too much variability going on to say anything with some sort of certainity. Steve Sroka is coming back from injury while Kline and Munyan have the 5k to worry about as well as the potential to run on the DMR. Plus you have some 4x8 drama in there as well. A lot can change very quickly if guys assert themselves in the next couple weeks, but for now I think it will be something like this:
5000m: Kline, Munyan
DMR: McGetrick, 4 leg, Sroka, Kline (potential to switch around McGetrick and Sroka with Munyan, Kentwell and others)
4x800m: Kentwell, Newcomb, Elkan, Felix (potential for McGetrick, Sroka or even Kline to sneak in here and rearrange the pieces)
I also wouldn't be surprised if the 5k is scrapped to some degree and the Mules opt to stack the DM and the 4x8 with the guys they see fit. Should be interesting to watch it unfold from the front row.
Swarthmore
Another incredibly difficult team to predict. Swat in the past has been more than willing to give up individual glory for a shot at team success. However, the team has never been quite this good before. Oppenheimer, Green and White are sure fire contenders in there top events. However, we also know that Swat has already run 7:59 for 4x8 and probably wouldn't mind taking their shot at a title. Like F&M we will have to wait it out to some degree and see what happens with their priorities. Keep in mind they have a slew of 3k-5k guys with a lot of talent that they may be able to move around to a variety of places. My best bet is the following:
5000m: Russell
DMR: Green, 4 leg, White, Branch (they also have Friske, Creem, Castro-Wehr, Russell and they could easily scrap this DMR entirely and plug in those guys and do well .. Also don't be surprised if White is the 400 leg ... or better yet don't be surprised if they go all in on the DMR with their 50. leg Oppenheimer on the anchor and White and Green doing the rest ... that team can run under 10:20 and would almost definitely win gold)
Mile: Oppenheimer (deserves a chance on the big stage in my opinion), Creem, Castro-Wehr
3000m: Friske, Russell
4x800m: Oppenheimer, White, Green, Branch (go for the W with a relatively fresh group)
As you can tell, I'm not sure we won't see a stacked DM and then guys on the double in the individuals or possibly something completely different, but if I had to predict based on what I have seen in the past this is my best bet.
Dickinson
Hard to imagine Dickinson is an after thought these days in the distance events. They are going to be flat out stacked across the board, but somehow they will fly hard core under the radar with Hopkins and Haverford in a tight battle for the team title (even though from the looks of the things right now Hopkins is winning handily). Dickinson has such strong individuals it makes their relays a little bit more questionable, but I would bet they will put in their 'B' guys and not do what they have done at the past (letting someone like Steinbock anchor the DM). In my opinion Steinbock and Sansevere shouldn't touch the DM with a ten foot pole, but if Dickinson decides they want to try and win it, those are the first guys they will turn to. I don't see it being that way because I see Steinbock going for the triple threat, which is no easy feat. Here is how I see it:
5000m: Basically everybody and their mom, Steinbock, Mynatt, Clark, Smith, Sisson, Simmons, Klein, Strenta, Howard, Rinehardt
DMR: White, 4 leg, Hepner, Brady
Mile: Steinbock, Sansevere
800m: Jackson (defending champion has to have a chance to defend his title right?)
3000m: Steinbock, Mynatt, Clark, Sisson, Simmons, Klein, Steadman (if Smith qualifies him too in all likelihood)
4x800m: Jackson, Sansevere, Hepner, Bayne (possibly instead a doubling White, also possible Bayne is switched into the DM to keep Hepner fresh for this race ... But Bayne has the most potential out of any of these second tier guys)
Haverford
Haverford is very good this year and they obviously have some amazing pieces, but it is challenge to figure out exactly where they all fit. Haverford is probably the only team that is seriously analyzing how to get every single possible point out of their distance squad at this meet. What does that mean? I think it means some fresh guys in the 3k, a strong DMR and 4x8, and a heavy dose of Stadler and Marquardt. Even though Marquardt is the second fastest 3k man in conference history, I'd be stunned if Donnelly doesn't take the points in the mile, 8, 4x8 triple. It's not an easy one, but I think they will give their star a shot. I also see Stadler going after the triple. The question is how will they use guys like Roza and Sokas and Bregman? Hard to leave 4:20 milers out of a race where they could place top 5 or so and disrput a Hopkins onslaught, but I mean are you going to triple everbody? Are you going to leave sub 15 guys out of the 5k? Lots of choices for Haverford, but this is what I see.
5000m: Stadler, Bregman, Roza, Fujimori, Christian
DMR: Rada, 4 leg, Rasmussen, Sokas (could see Gorman or Stackman, but I think they want to try and snag a gold in this event if they can)
Mile: Stadler, Marquardt, Stackman, Brier
800m: Marquardt, Kenny, Dorvil
3000m: Stadler, Bregman, Roza, Fujimore, Gorman, Christian
4x800m: Marquardt, Rada, Rasmussen, Gardner (could switch this around if they aren't too attached to Keny on the 4x4)
Hopkins
Last, but certainly not least, we are looking at the army of blue jays. Haverford may chant about the army, but Hop has got so many guys and has run so many fast times while they have gone through the meet chasing that this is easily their conference meet to lose. That's why I don't think they will pay too much attention to relays and all that good stuff. They will load up the individuals and go after points. Could be misguided, but here is what I would have to guess is going down
5000m: Ochstein, Stecklair, Cerruzzi, Arnold, Dordai
DMR: Rinehart, 4 leg, Wilkes, Butler
Mile: Carey, Saliani, Pavarini, Alvarez
800m: Carey, Holmgren, Hyland, Arikalta
3000m: Ochstein, Pavarini, Arnold, Cerruzzi, Stecklair, Saliani, Butler
4x800m: Holmgren, Hyland, Rinehart, Wilkes (potential to change this one up and pull guys out of event to keep them fresher, but I don't think the 4x8 will mean much by the time Hopkins is done with the field events and such)
So that's it! I'll try to update a few things and tweak if I see fit later on.
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