Running 101

So I decided that my first top 50 wasn't all that well thought so, heck why not drop a top 101 on everybody. Well here's the problem with that ... The natural variation and pure volume of names makes it impossible to pick basically 70 through 100 (30 names) from a set of 50-60 guys with comparable ability. And that's not even including the variety of kids I don't even know yet who will inevitably crack not just the top 100 but the top 50 and some all the way to the top 25. Anyone who had Andrew Marston and Casey Comber in their top 15 at the state meet please raise your hand and be recognized as a fortune teller.

But here's the thing ... I did the research, so why not throw down a list while I got some time to kill listening to the artic monkeys and taking a train home. So I'm gonna throw up a top 101 for the state but here's my rules about this post:

#1 I seperated everybody by tier. If two guys are in the same tier they are at the very least of quite similar ability and potential. So if you are going to argue my positions, argue for tier rather than number. 101 spots is just too many to get too specific with.

#2 If I left someone off the list, please share them here with a nice little bio or something. The cool thing about this list is that there should be lots of guys you can bring up who belong on this list and this gives us a great opportunity to share sleepers.

#3 Remember that in a week or two this thing is getting blown up and a new one will come out to account for the new round of data from the first meets of the year. So don't get too attached or too distraught.

#4 I'm gonna make a ton of mistakes typing out 101 name on my phone. Please politely correct my mistakes in the comments section. Don't take it personally. Also if you have insider information on injuries, moving, etc that influence these rankings please politely share below.

So without further ado, let's get to it. In reverse order ...
Tier 6- These guys are proven commodities who made the list over a slew of other talented borderline guys because I felt they had some specific bit of potential ready to be unleashed, or a certain school needed to have a name on the list or something like that. Not a lot seperated these guys from those just off the list.

101. G. Hepp, GFS
100. P. Grant, LaSalle
99. I. Braun, Mt Lebo
98. J. Weese, Canon Mac
97. J. Sussalla, Plum
96. T. Mays, Bensalem
95. J. MaGuire, CR South
94. D. Wilkinson, Red Land
93. S. Griswold, CRN
92. R. Fortuna, CB West
91. Z. White, West Allegheny
90. J. Daly, St. Joes Prep
89. R. James, Ohara
88. J. Heinauer, North Hills
87. G. Smith, Northeast Bradford

Tier 5: The difference or me between 6 and 5 is really all about upside. I see these tier 5 guys as having pretty similar cross chops to the tier 6 guys but they have big time upside based in track performance, training programs or a particularly impressive one off type performance.

86. E. Fadale, honestly forgot his school, I think it's Selingsgrove like his brother? It's a random one for sure
85. L. Upham, Northeast Bradford
84. D. Quigley, Freedom
83. G. Lamm, Whitehall
82. D. Diagcoma, Twin Valley
81. O. Seeber, Cumberland Valley
80. Y. Soliman, Cumberland Valley
79. A. Hanna, CR South
78. A. Demko, Hershey
77. G. Barchet, Henderson
76. D. Pastore, Ohara
75. J. Cooper, Conestoga
74. N. Sweet, dang it forget this one too, this probably will happen to a few more small school dudes unfortunately ... Probably shoulda wrote them down ...
73. B. Zeigler, Freedom
72. A. Stewart, Upper Dublin
71. A. Milligan, State College
70. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin
69. J. Espinal, Wilson
68. M. Scarpill, CB South

That stretch of 5 are some of the most interesting guys for me these first couple weeks, especially Scarpill and Espinal, I'm buying stock in them both big time.

67. E. Kennedy, Kiski

Tier 4: This group has a bit more impressive true XC credentials than tier 5, but I don't see quite enough big time potential to move them up to tier 3. The names start getting a bit more familiar from here in my mind.

66. K. Lapansky, Easton
65. E. Graca, Fox Chapel
64. B. Delaney, Manheim Township
63. S. Smith, Towanda
62. E. Linderman, Canon Mac

Graca trying to prove 800 based guys can excel at cross. He could end up a Lobb or Rotz type, probably not enough of a miler to end up like Stone. Linderman getting a ton of hype right now so I'll be looking forward to him. Smith is a very popular singer right now. Oh wait wrong guy.

61. A. Sauer, Pennsbury
60. J. Luckanitz, Governor Mifflin
59. J. Degroot Lutzner, Masterman
58. C. Trimble
57. T. Quiggle, Seneca Valley

A 1:52 split and 4:21 guy at 61 and 60. That's nice depth. Luckanitz could move up a lot in my eyes. Quiggle showed nice range last year, he and Kolor should be fun.

56. D. Green, James Buchanon
55. D. Eddinger, Boyertown
54. T. Gunzenhauser, Mt Lebanon
53. W. Sponaugle, Hershey
52. R. Tung, North Penn
51. M. Kolor, Seneca Valley

Eddinger is one of my most intriguing stories for this season after he burned through the rest of the states best lead off men, coming from seemingly nowhere to join Mercado. Boyertown has produced Weller (1st), Dennin (1st), Kelly (3rd) in recent years. Nice company. I'm on the Kolor bandwagon for sure. And I think if there is no rain at WPIALs TGunz has a much more impressive 16 PR to his name.

50. B. Wilt, Biglersville
49. M. Kravitz, North Pocono

Tier 3: We have hit guys who's skills are undeniable. I see Tier 3 as guys who are splitting the borderline between good and great. I'm not ready to say these guys are great, but they are very good. We are at AAA state medalist types now.

48. J. DiContino, Wymossing
47. J. Hoey, Malvern Prep
46. D. Knudsen, Mifflin County
45. S. Hilverding
44. B. Szuhaj, Penn Charter

For the record that's Little Hoey, Jaxson is a bit farther up. Had no idea Knudsen was coming back this year. Big sleeper out of District 6 no doubt, I like what he did last year on the track. And Big Ben Szuhaj was top 40 in the region 2 years ago. That's a guy who could fly up this list when healthy. Also Hilverding shouldn't be this low. He just shouldn't he's too good, gonna have to fix that on the next version.

43. B. Arita, CR North
42. J. Connors, Wilson
41. J. Tidball, Tunkhannock
40. N. Morgan, Lakeland
39. C. Holm, Radnor

Just raddled off some of my favorite names. Morgan and Holm are stud milers, I'll be interested to see if Holm translates like I think he will. Morgan is a much more established XC force. Tidball is on the defending champs and continued to improve during track last spring. I think he could be top 5 in AA states this year.

38. Z. Skolnevich, Quaker Valley
37. K. Shinn, Wyomising
36. K. Gonoude, Salisbury
35. S. Seel, North Allegheny
34. A. Benka, Grove City
33. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
32. E. Diestelow, West Chester East
31. Ryan Budnik, Grove City

Wilson is more impressive the more I examine his resume and CD does a nice job with their runners. Lots of great programs in this group including our first NA runner.

And just a quick note for all the kids out there hating on WC East and their "peaking too early", take a quick peak at the state and regional results for Mr. Chris Cummings. Top 15 and top 20 in the region at the end of November?  WC East does just fine with their dudes as proven by their great team in 2012, Cummings last year and Diestelow once he got healthy in track. Plus they have had a DMR make states in there. Sorry had to get that in there.

Tier 2: These kids are a step below Star. Not quite a state champ or district champ in my eyes right now, but if things break right they will be right in the mix for serious hardware.

30. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
29. C. Wills, Malvern Prep
28. H. Wharrey, North Allegheny
27. L. Delaney, Winchester Thurston
26. D. Stroh, Altoona

I have Wharrey and Wills a bit on the high side because I think being on a great team makes everybody a little bit better. Plus they have some nice resumes already.

For the record Altoona was sneaky good last year. They were nearly another LaSalle during XC, snagging a spot at states despite being screwed by the one spot for D6 rule. They barely lost to SC who was a clear top 5 team last year. Altoona probably was a top 7-10 team as well, but we never got to find out. Stroh was arguably their best guy last year, he was the district champ after all! Faust ended being the state medalist, however, and so he gets ranked up a bit higher.

25. J. Smith, Avon Grove
24. B. Faust, Altoona
23. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep
22. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep
21. W. Loevner, Wichester Thurston

McDevitt gets a big boost after seeing his sea isle 10 miler run performance. I run that race every year, even when I haven't run for the month leading up to the race. It's a really fun run regardless of how out of shape you are and it was worth all the pain. Plus I got to see a pack of Ohara boys blow by me a little over halfway through and let me know how underrated they were. It was a powerful message, especially because I was slowly crumbling to pieces ... But I digress

20. P. Power, Spring Ford
19. N. Dahl, GFS
18. Z. Seiger, Red Land
17. W. Kachman, Bedford
16. A. Knapp, Henderson

This is a group I'm really rooting hat for. Dahl is a super exciting soph with a ton of talent. I underrated Seiger tragically last version of this list, he's a pro at XC. Knapp is a nice guy, clutch runner and trying to carry on a big time tradition. Kachman is the closest I get to making an It's A Wonderful Life reference and who doesn't love those. And Power ran in the 15:30s last year right? And he was a state medalist? He went in like the last round of last years pre state fantasy draft (to team etrain)! How does that happen? Kid deserves some love.

Tier 1: The cream of the crop. Guys with district state and national type goals.
15. S. Ritz, GA
14. A. Marston, Conestoga
13. C. Comber, Horsham
12. A. Gebhardt, New Oxford
11. D. Perretta, Beaver Area

Really fast dudes. Perrettas potential is through the roof. Ritz is a 4:10 guy. The other three are proven sub 9:20 guys as Juniors. That's no easy task. Plus they were all top 15 Aaa guys last year. They are real solid.

10. J. VanKooten, Pittsburgh CC
9. M. McGoey, NA
8. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
7. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
6. J. Brophy, CB East

Two guys I picked to win state titles recently (brophy, brehm) plus one of my favorites in McGoey and a guy who already won a state champ in Hockenbury. The last guy? Just a great miler with XC hardware, a district title and some nice lineage. Brophy is probably a decent amount of people's pick to win states and they are smart people. And look Brehm might be the best guy the state has seen since Craig Miller. He already has a slew of sub 4:10 marks and two state titles. If he wins in XC he becomes an all timer.

5. C. Abert, Easton
4. S. Webb, Pennsbury
3. J. Hoey, Malvern Prep
2. G. Molino, south Williamsport
1. K. James, Ohara

I will talk more about this top group in another post (I've been typing for an hour plus) but just know all these guys are studs and the fact that I can't bring myself to put a stud like Abert higher than 5th is absurd. It shows how excellent the depth is that the best guy in his class for 2 years is somehow 5th.

It's gonna be a really fun year.