By The Numbers

By: Garrett Zatlin

As some people may know, Train loves numbers and often uses them to his advantage when making picks and predictions. So I decided to look deeper into the numbers of the NCAA and see what we can take away about this upcoming season.

A couple of things to keep in mind...
1. The oldest rankings and times I could find go back to the 2009-2010 indoor season. So not counting this season, I am only basing these numbers off of six years of history.
2. For individuals, the top 16 entries run at NCAA's.

800
Last year was one of the fastest years for the half mile that we have seen in a long time. A grand total of SIX men broke the 1:47 barrier for indoors and it led to an interesting final at NCAA's. Look below at just how fast 2014-2015 was compared to recent history.

Indoor Season	Average Time for Top 10 Men
2009-2010	1:47.58
2010-2011	1:47.34
2011-2012	1:47.49
2012-2013	1:47.22
2013-2014	1:47.59
2014-2015	1:46.97

So what does that mean? It means that if we are going strictly by the numbers, we shouldn't expect to see another field as fast as that one for a while. However, this 2015-2016 field might be different as nine of the top ten from last year return for this indoor season (top ranked Kemboi graduated). Assuming we see some improvements and breakout stars, 2015-2016 could be the fastest group of runners we have ever seen.

Another thing to look at is the national qualifying time. Could it change at all?

Indoor Season	Final Time To Enter NCAA's
2009-2010	1:48.73
2010-2011	1:48.08
2011-2012	1:48.56
2012-2013	1:48.65
2013-2014	1:48.84
2014-2015	1:48.28

History has shown that 1:48mid is the general cutoff point that makes it into the Big Dance. For 2015-2016, if you take the top 16 half-mile returners in the nation, 1:48.52 would be the last man to qualify*. As of right now, it seems like that cutoff time isn't going to change.

*Assuming all 16 of them decided to enter the half-mile.

Major Takeaways: 
-During 2015, nine of the top ten 800 runners from 2014 returned to put together one of the fastest fields in history. Now going into the 2016 season, nine of the top ten 800 runners from 2015 return. If we focus on returners, this will be one of the fastest 800 fields ever.
-A fast group up front wont change the fact that 1:48(low/mid) will be the cutoff when qualifying for nationals this winter.

Mile
Last winter was my first season of writing for the blog so I didn't have a full understanding of just how fast some of these guys were. When Cristian Soratos ended last season with a nation leading mile time of 3:55, I assumed that no one else would match that for a while...then I looked at the previous years and man was I wrong.

Top Milers & Times For Winter Seasons
Year	Athlete	Time
2009-2010	Lee Emmanuel	3:57.62
2010-2011	Patrick Casey	3:54.59
2011-2012	Miles Batty	3:54.54
2012-2013	Chris O'Hare	3:52.98
2013-2014	Lawi Lalang	3:52.88
2014-2015	Cristian Soratos	3:55.27
	6 Year Average	3:54.64

In terms of front-runners, did we experience a down year in the mile last winter? According to the numbers we did. Sub 3:55 is what most of the top guys have run and we didn't get to see that. However, in terms of depth, 2014-2015 was one of the best seasons ever. 

# of Athletes Under 4 Minutes
Year	Number
2009-2010	22
2010-2011	22
2011-2012	33
2012-2013	30
2013-2014	26
2014-2015	32
6-year Average	27.5

Only the 2011-2012 season had one more runner under the magical four minute mark than the 2014-2015 season did. While it is exciting, we have to keep in mind that only 19 of those 32 sub-4 milers return this season. It's not impossible to have another season where 32 runners are under four minutes. However, that is most likely not going to happen and the number will most likely be closer to the six year average of 27 to 28.

Major Takeaways:

-The numbers indicate that the top guy this year should be under 3:55. We're looking at you Cheserek.  

-Last year was extremely deep, but with only 19 sub-4 milers returning we probably won't see a mile field as deep as that this year. 

3000 & 5000

When I was watching the 3k and 5k last year, I noticed that many seniors and juniors made up the top runners in the nation. It peaked my interest enough to take a closer look at it and the numbers proved my original thought. The older you are, the better you'll run in the longer distances. 

3000 meters
Year	Portion of Seniors in Top 16 Times	Portion of Juniors in Top 16 Times
2009-2010	11 (69%)	4 (25%)
2010-2011	7 (44%)	6 (38%)
2011-2012	9 (56%)	5 (31%)
2012-2013	11 (69%)	4 (25%)
2013-2014	10 (63%)	4 (25%)
2014-2015	10 (63%)	4 (25%)

5000 meters
Year	Portion of Seniors in Top 16 Times	Portion of Juniors in Top 16 Times
2009-2010	10 (63%)	5 (31%)
2010-2011	6 (38%)	5 (31%)
2011-2012	9 (56%)	5 (31%)
2012-2013	9 (56%)	5 (31%)
2013-2014	9 (56%)	5 (31%)
2014-2015	12 (75%)	4 (25%)

Clearly, seniors and juniors dominate the NCAA qualifying field for the 3000 and 5000. Experience is key when racing these longer races on the collegiate level while youth has seen more success in shorter events like the 800. 

Although seniors dominate such a heavy portion of the 3k and 5k fields, they don't always win the NCAA title. 

Out of the past six years, only two seniors have won the 3000 meter title at NCAA's (2015 Eric Jenkins & 2010 Dorian Ulrey). The other four champions? Two juniors, one sophomore, and one freshman. 

As we move onto the 5k, there is a striking resemblance to the 3000. Out of the past six years, only two seniors have won the 5000 meter title at NCAA's (2015 Eric Jenkins & 2013 Kennedy Kithuka). The other four champions? Two juniors, one sophomore, and one freshman...sounds familiar doesn't it?

Major Takeaways:

-Seniors and Juniors consistently make up a heavy majority of the 3k and 5k national qualifying field 

-Being an upperclassman doesn't guarantee an NCAA title