Kiss from a (Mill)Rose: Who will Seal a Victory?

By Alex Fox and Dylan Jaklitsch 

Editors Note: this piece was written before Connor Lundy's most recent mile at New Balance in the elite section 

 

Before I get into this argument, I’d like to explain my absence over the past several months: I was in Italy from August until January. Now that I’m back, it is only appropriate that my return contribution is defending a New Yorker. The Milrose Mile is one of the most prestigious crowns for a high schooler to earn during indoor. This year, the two favorites appear to be Jaxson Hoey and Aidan Tooker. Although Hoey was able to take down a different New York star in Conor Lundy, I feel Tooker’s momentum and strength are too much to overcome; meanwhile, my compatriot Dylan Jaklitsch has thrown caution to the wind, and details how the Pennsylvania native can claim the coveted title. 

 

Why Tooker will win:

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There are two figures that make up a bulk of my argument in favor of Tooker: 4:09 and 12/19/15. Just in case you missed it or don’t understand the reference, Aidan Tooker ran a 4:09 1600. On December 19th. No one is supposed to run that fast that early. If this isn’t enough evidence to convince you of Tooker’s fitness, he added in a 8:54 3200 earlier this season as well. Tooker is having the best indoor season of any distance runner in the northeast, possibly the entire country. This isn’t to say Hoey is in poor shape or that his feats haven’t been impressive, but Aidan Tooker’s current fitness is unmatched. While I don’t necessarily consider Tooker a miler like Hoey, and there is a strong chance Hoey can best Tooker at a later date should they matchup again (perhaps at Penn Relays), this race is Tooker’s to lose simply because of his incredible current fitness and confidence. 

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If Tooker’s accomplishments this indoor season are not enough to convince you he should be going into the Millrose Mile as favorite, another factor to consider is his versatility; Tooker can grind out a fast pace and have the strength to win, or he can sit with a slow pace and use his closing speed to clinch a win. Consider his 4:09 splits: Tooker came through in 2:05 and 3:07, and despite this respectable pace, Tooker closed in 62.xx. In route to running 8:54, Tooker was able to close in 4:24. The kid has guts for days. However, like many high-stake races, the Millrose Mile is often determined by a big kick in the last 400 meters. Luckily, Tooker can also close with the best of the best. In order to capture his first state title, Tooker ran down stud Mikey Brannigan on the final stretch in a kick for the ages (I was able to watch it live, and I seriously couldn’t believe it. I highly recommend finding a video if possible). So, whether the race goes out in 2:05 or 2:20, Tooker will be in it until the very end, and should be the first to cross the finish line. A final consideration is history: the last PA native to win the Millrose Mile was Jason Weller in the year 2007. Tooker will be defending his home turf on a track he has always raced well on. Although it isn’t out of the question, a victory for Jaxson Hoey at the Millrose Games would be quite the upset. 

 

How Hoey will win:

While my good buddy Alex Fox is introducing Aidan Tooker as the winner of this year's Millrose Mile, I feel I must disagree at this point in time. Downingtown West's star miler Jaxson Hoey is in great fitness, and I think this race will be the perfect one to showcase his strengths. But first, let's take a look at the unfamiliar face that is Aidan Tooker.

Aidan Tooker, from upstate New York, ran several eight lap races last indoor season, giving us a look at his racing style and ability. Let's examine the mile races Tooker ran last indoor season.

First, Tooker ran the mile at the New Balance Games, with the top two finishers advancing to Millrose. While Tooker remained very close to the front, he was passed in the last 100m by Luke Gavigan, pushing him to 3rd place.

Two weeks later, Tooker toed the line with several elite runners at the New Balance Grand Prix. This race was much less tactical, with Tooker finishing sixth in a blistering 4:11 mile. While he ran a phenomenal time, he was unable to make the push to the front as the rapid pace played out.

Although Tooker was unable to autoqualify for Millrose, he did receive a bid, as he had run impressively throughout the season. As always, he hung with the lead pack for much of the race. However, with 400m to go, James Burke of NY kicked up the pace, closing in 57 seconds. Tooker was unable to hang with the kick, finishing fifth.

Jaxson Hoey did not do much running during indoor last season. It is to my understanding that he was injured much of the season, and took that time to appropriately recover for a fantastic outdoor season, where he competed at states and nationals.

While this indoor season is young for Hoey, he began the season by running a US #1 800m race, completing four consecutive 28 second laps and winning handily in 1:54.52. He followed that up with a quick turnaround into the Millrose Trials, where he would experience some very strong competition, most notably 4:07 miler Conor Lundy. Hoey ran the perfect race, negative splitting his way to a 4:12.05 mile, where he overtook Lundy on the final lap. Hoey has shown the kind of shape he's in, and is clearly ready to make a big impact at the Millrose Games next month.

Look, there's no doubting that Tooker is game for a historic season. He has run a 4:09 mile himself this season, and an 8:54 3200. But this isn't a 3200; this is the Millrose Mile. A race won by hanging tough for the first 800, matching moves, and closing hard. Real hard. In fact, I think the winner should be prepared to close near 2 minutes, something I think Hoey is capable of doing. Tooker, with a relay split PR of 2:00, would likely struggle mightily to close at that speed, something that could point to his finishes in the mile last year.

 

This race is certainly going to go down to the wire, and I'm excited to see these top high school runners toe the line in pursuit of the title as Millrose Champion