Cooking Up Some Cross Country

By Jarrett Felix

I’m a runner so naturally I like to eat. However, I’m not really much of a cook. My go to meal is usually tacos. Or cereal. I can make a real good bowl of cereal. But realistically, you can’t just eat cereal every day for all your meals (although to be fair, I came pretty close in college). You need to know how cook up some solid meals. Usually that requires a recipe, but there are lots of different recipes you can use to cook the same meal. Sometimes it depends on your ingredients you have. Sometimes it depends on what book your mom gave you when you moved out. But the point is there are many different ways to make equally good meals that will sufficiently fill up a growing boy (growing in the wrong direction unfortunately, but growing all the same).

Of course I’m not actually going to discuss cooking for the entire length of this post. That opening paragraph was what we call in the writing business a metaphor. You see I’m not actually talking about cooking up chicken pot pie or Captain Crunch. I’m talking about how to win a state championship during cross country. Depending on the runners you have on your team, there are a variety of strategies that could equal the same result: gold medals on the Hershey hills. Pretty clever, eh? No? You already knew that I just wasted a solid two paragraphs when you just wanted to read me talk about Cross Country?

Although I can’t literally hear any of you, my gut says you want me to move things along here. So I’ll just dive right in. The fall of 2016 will be the 5^th state championship since the PIAA made the decision to switch to three classifications in XC. I didn’t agree with the decision at the time (and still don’t really, but I’ll save you a Meet of Champs rant), but I will say that it has added an extra level of intrigue to the team and individual battles at each level. I mainly focus on AAA team battles (at least 90% of the time those are the state’s best teams, they are the biggest schools so it makes sense) so I will try and break down the new landscape of AAA that I’ve noticed as we now have a solid sample size to compare the three classification system to the two.

Here’s some of my favorite numbers. Each of the last four state champions (Henderson x2, North Allegheny, DT West) have had 3 top 26 state finishers. The top 3 is critically important. I’ve been on record in the past as stressing how much the top 3 matters at states as there can be quite a bit of randomness in the 4-5 spot in the hectic state meet. I equate it to the dual meet principle. If you take 1-2-3 in a dual meet, you literally can’t lose the race (assuming you have 5 runners cross the line). If you’re squad finishes with the top 3 spots in a dual meet, you could have a couple 40 minute 5kers at the 4-5 spot. Obviously, in bigger invitationals this effect is negated (heavily), but the state meet isn’t as big as say the District One Championships and it’s also much more front loaded than your typical regular season invitational. Most of the talent is in the front so you need to have as many strong guys before the drop off in talent.

In the previous 6 seasons, just two state championship squads placed 3 runners in the top 26. However, it was a bit larger of a meet. Extend it out to 3 in the top 35 and you get to 5/6 (Henderson in 2009 is the exception. We will touch on that). The conclusion? The meet size is changing, but the principle still applies.

But, of course, the top 3 is not enough to win a meet singlehandedly. There are five scorers for each team and the 4-5 guys are usually running in massive packs where runners are crossing the finish line at over a runner per second. Getting a 4 or 5 guy who can separate themselves from that madness will get you valuable point swings in the chase for the podium. In the last 4 seasons, a total of 6 teams placed at least three runners in the top 30 at states but didn’t leave with the gold (however, they were all at least top 3). On the flip side, the state champions each had another runner in the top 50. Henderson in 2012 and 2013 had 6 guys in the top 50. North Allegheny and DT West had 4 each but their #5 was right on the verge of breaking through.

Prior to the last four seasons, I would have said five in the top 50 overall finishers is pretty incredible and usually locks up a runaway title. Before 2012, only Coatesville had done it in 2006 (that would be the national champions Coatesville). Getting 4 in the top 50 was almost a guarantee as well (North Penn in 2008, Henderson in 2009) although depending on where your pack is located you could still lose out (LaSalle in 2009 finished 3^rd despite an incredibly tight spread in the 35-55 range).

But the Top 50 principle is no longer as steadfast of a rule in the three classification system as it was in the two. Cardinal O’Hara had 5 in the top 50 in 2012 and lost to Henderson (on a tie breaker). North Allegheny had 5 in the top 50 in 2013 and was almost nipped from behind by O’Hara for the silver.

To be fair, these results are likely skewed. The switch to three classifications happens to have coincided with perhaps the best stretch of PA XC we have ever seen. In 2012, we sent two teams to nationals, including the 5^th place team in the country. That team didn’t even win states. In 2013, we saw a Henderson squad that put 7 guys under 16 at Lehigh and qualified for Nats a second straight year. NA’s 2014 squad was no slouch and last year’s DT West team became PA’s first ever regional champions.

This year we might finally see the talent level come down a little bit. Team’s that may were 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th in year’s past may have had a shot at this year’s title. The top 3 teams from last year each lose their top 2 runners. 13 of the top 14 teams are graduating at least one runner who finished in the top 50 at states a year ago. It’s part of what has opened the door for Carlisle High School to become the first state champions from outside D1/North Allegheny since Cedar Cliff in 2004.

There’s certainly a few other teams that will be clipping at Carlisle’s heels for throne. Depending on how their 3-4-5 come together behind the Affolders (fingers crossed for no injuries) they could be an all-time great team or a vulnerable one. I’m rooting for a state championship like 2011 personally. That race ended up being completely up for grabs with at least five teams who could won on any given day. North Penn won the state title despite finishing 3^rd at the District Meet and, quite honestly, having a fairly lackluster and unexciting season up to that point. Really, 2005 and 2011 have provided perhaps the biggest upsets we have seen in the team standings (although in my opinion, 2008 and 2012 both were solid upset meets). So really we are due for a crazy team title race in 2016.

So pour yourself a nice bowl of Frosted Flakes, Pennsylvania. And enjoy the start of the 2016 Cross Country Season.