Making of a Murder .. ous DMR

by Jarrett Felix

Recently, we’ve seen a lot of talk about Carlisle and Germantown Friends. The talent level on both teams is tremendous and, as a result, these two schools have posted the top two DMR times in the state. With third place well outside of ear shot. However, we’ve seen upsets before. The best team on paper doesn’t always win the title, especially when you factor in doubling. And doubling is something that Carlisle’s Sam Affolder made clear his teammates will do.

Look no further than last year’s state championship for evidence. The best regular season team was Downingtown West, the XC champs who had two all-time mile talents on the roster. However, West decided not to pursue the DMR with an “A” squad at the state championships. So that left the door open for Pennridge, CB West, GFS or CB East, the next four best teams by seed time. Or maybe State College, the soon to be 4x800 state champs with soon to be state 1600 champ Alex Milligan on the anchor. Or maybe the two most winningest relay programs in Henderson and LaSalle.

But when push came to shove, it wasn’t any of those guys who ended up with gold. Instead it was the defending champions from Cardinal O’Hara. This squad, whose best miler was outside the top 25 in the state and whose anchor was outside the top 40 during the regular season, stormed away from everyone to steal a stunner of a title. The win was in large part due to a fantastic PR run by Ryan James, who completely soloed a time some 6 second faster than his season best. But it was also thanks in large part to a couple of doubling legs in Rob Morro and Justin Jones who opened up that dramatic lead that tired anchors waited a fraction too long to bite into.

It’s unclear exactly which teams will be entered in the state championship DMR for 2017 and the next few weeks will go a long way toward shaping the exact picture. And let’s be clear, a couple of relays anchored by Nick Dahl and Noah Affolder, each of whom have already gone under 4:10 in some form or another in their careers, would be the best credentialed we have ever seen in a state final. But those teams have gotten some love and will undoubtedly get more (especially after a likely run at the National Record at NBIN). I’d rather talk about some of the contenders who are hoping to be this year’s surprise winners if the door is left open for them.

But first let’s break down how teams have been successful in the past.

Fresh Legs Help, But They Aren’t Everything

Doubling is hard, especially at the state championship level. It’s pretty hard to save something when you have elite runners chasing you around the track in any event you pick. And with the new schedule, there appears to be more doubling and harder doubling for those trying to couple individual events with relays.

The meet record holders, LaSalle in 2008, hold that record in large part because they decided to run a completely fresh relay at the state championship meet. That Explorer squad knocked off the favorites from E&S who were doubling everybody on the relay.

But honestly, most of the champions have doubling. Take a look at two of the other sub 10:20 teams in state meet history. Upper Dublin was doubling ¾ legs when they took the title in 2009. LaSalle’s 2013 title team was doubling their 1200 and 1600 legs as well. In fact, the 2008 LaSalle team seems to be more the exception than the rule. Every other DMR state champ has had at least one guy doubling on their line-up card.

So while some teams have been derailed by doubling in the past, it’s not like it’s a fool hearty concept. These guys are elite and they can pull off a couple good races in a row with the pressure on.

Elite Guys Tend to Win Titles

So why are these teams filled with doubling guys? Because those teams have the best guys! It’s not quite rocket science. The DMR heavily favors its longest leg: the 1600. I pull this stat out every year, but look at the relay champs we’ve seen in the DMR. 2009 Upper Dublin, 2010 Henderson, 2012 Great Valley, 2013 LaSalle, and 2014 Henderson all featured state championship winning milers/800 runners. The 2008 LaSalle team had the PCL mile champ who ran 4:12 (not in the PIAA back then). 2011 Wissahickon had the state champ at 800. And 2015 O’Hara had Kevin James on the anchor, who is #2 in indoor state meet history for the mile. As usual, Kevin James ends up being the exception to the rule because he never actually won an individual state title despite being one of the fastest dudes ever in basically everything.

So for those of you checking things off with a checklist at home, the only state champs I didn’t mention were 2007 Henderson and 2016 O’Hara. Now go back and take a quick look at those races. In 2007, the 2^nd and 3^rd place teams were GFS and Wissahickon. In 2008, GFS anchor Max Kaulbach won the indoor state title before Wissahickon anchor Nick Crits won the outdoor state title in the mile/1600. Now we jump to 2016. Last year, the 2^nd and 3^rd place teams were GFS and State College. We will see what happens with Dahl (it’s possible he gets a mile title in less than a month), but State College’s anchor, Alex Milligan, was crowned state champion in the 1600 meters last spring.

I mean that’s unreal set of circumstance and one that hints favorably in the direction of GFS and Carlisle who have 3 potential mile/1600 state champions on their roster and will likely house this year’s mile champ as Josh Hoey has indicated he will skip the mile for the 800.

This all seems obvious, but consider the 4x800 as it compares to the DMR. If having an elite talent was so important, you would expect to see a similar number of state champions peppering the 4x8 gold medalists. So let’s take a quick look. The 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015 4x8 champs all had 0 individual state champs on the roster. That’s 7/10 without as opposed to 7/10 with for the DMR (if you are counting Lowry as a state champ which is admittedly self-serving).

Also in the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that the 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2015 relays had state runner ups (Montijo, Montijo, Moran, Sauer) and the 2012 relay had a 3^rd place finisher (Joey Logue). However, the 2011 squad from CB West (i.e. the state record holders) had no individual state medal winners either indoors or out. Connor Manley, who held a PR of 1:51.50, was gassed outdoors and faded hard from the final after his herculean split to give his team the title.

Get to the Lead and Hold On

But as much as I love to talk about the importance of having a championship caliber anchor on your DMR, the recipe for success has rarely been: let our anchor leg catch everyone and win us a title. In fact, the best way to win this event appears to be to have a strong 1200 meter leg.

Consider this, I just spent a lot of time talking to you about all these awesome state champions. Well in 2011, 2012 and 2014, those state champions were actually the lead off runners, not the anchors. Ned Willig was the poster boy for this get out hard strategy as he clocked a 3 flat type split to bust the race open for Great Valley, but we also saw it from Tony Russell of Henderson two years later. Those teams ended up anchored by Billy Wolffe and Eric Stratman who, while excellent runners who thrived in the clutch, never bested 4:17 in their careers. So sometimes you don’t need the fastest guy on anchor, you just need a poised, smart runner who can handle being all by himself.

Of course, other times the anchors were the team’s best runners. But even many of those runners got the baton with a lead. The 2009 and 2013 state champions both had leads for their champion anchors and who looked fairly tired from their earlier races but still held on for some of the fastest winning times in meet history. I think very few teams, if any, haven gotten the baton outside the top 5 or 6 and even broke into the top 3. I didn’t think about it particularly hard to be fair, but a lot of times the top 4 at the final exchange end up the top 4 in some order at the end.

Know Your Personnel, Practice the 1200

I think the 1200 is one of the coolest events that has ever been created. If I could be really good at one event, I think it would be the 1200. OK, I wouldn’t because that event is never run, but it’s just such a cool event that I had to consider it.

But like I said, it’s never run. Like ever. Besides on the DMR where guys are leading off and trying to set their teams up for something absurd. It’s a critically important leg for a DMR squad, but you never get to practice it unless you run it on a DMR. That makes it very important for coaches to prepare the guys they put into that slot and coach them up for the moment.

Some guys just have a knack for the 1200. Joey Waddington of CB South always comes to mind for me. He’s probably the best pure 1200 guy I’ve ever known. And that’s why CB South was able to grab two high priced medals in 2010 and 2011. Rob Morro for O’Hara was a really good 1200 guy as well. I think his open PRs were in the 4:20s and 1:58s, but he still handed off at the front of fields that were loaded with guys who, on paper, were better. He led off two state championship relays. That’s no joke.

In 2009, our Upper Dublin squad had a guy who just seemed to have a knack for the 1200 in Matt Lorenzo. He was really the key to us winning our DMR wheel in 2009. He’s another guy who had PRs in the 4:20s and 1:58s but could run under 3:10 consistently in the 12.

But sometimes you don’t have that natural 1200 guy on the roster and you have to improvise. That’s what some other top teams like Great Valley and Henderson have done. Like I said about Willig, he dropped a nasty 1200 leg at states. But that arose because the Great Valley boys had tried him on anchor in previous seasons and come up short of their goals (I think I picked them to win states in 2011, a year before they earned the title). The coaching staff made a gutsy change that I was skeptical of at the time and it paid off with state gold. They knew their personnel and it worked out.

So … Didn’t You Say This Was A Post About Beating Carlisle/GFS?

Oh, yeah. I almost forgot about that. Well, let’s keep it simple. What teams outside of Carlisle and GFS have attributes that fit with some of these descriptions?

In terms of knowing your personnel, it’s hard not to look at CR North and be impressed. They’ve run a couple strong DMRs this year and we know they are well coached. This team came up clutch at states both indoors and out a year ago, plus they have an experienced lead off runner in Keller. Keep in mind, Keller led off at Penn Relays and Outdoor States last year for the team’s 4x8. With Keller, Welde and Early, this is a team that could get out to a lead and maybe steal a title.

In terms of star power, I really like this LaSalle team’s upside. Evan Addison has been fantastic this year. The junior ran 4:19 for a big win at Ocean Breeze and clocked an 8:46.99 in his “off” event. Addison has the skill set to maybe be a state champ one day and gives his LaSalle boys an “x-factor” few can match. Plus, Brendan Price has all the tools to be an elite 1200 runner. For the record, LaSalle has two of the fastest DMRs in state meet history thanks to their 2008 and 2013 wins plus they were state runner ups in 2014.

O’Hara and Henderson have combined for 5 state championships in this event and helped to create some of the greatest PA Distance running moments in my decade’s long career. You can’t question their work ethic, gamesmanship and coaching. And oh by the way, their teams look pretty good this year. Henderson just put themselves in the top 5 on the state rankings and they’ve got an experienced group that grabbed medals in this race last year. O’Hara has 3 sub 4:30 milers, Ryan James running at the top of his game to anchor and the confidence that comes with two straight titles. Plus, I could see both of these teams saving up and going fresh in this event to give themselves a little extra spark.

And hey, don't sleep on State College. We will see what they do at the Carnival this weekend and if they are serious about trying to grab a title in the "other" distance relay.

So what do you guys think? If you have to pick a team other than Carlisle or GFS to win this year’s state championship in the DMR, who you got?