Is The Hershey Course ... Too Easy?

By etrain11

They say absence makes the heart grow fonder. But sometimes absence just makes the heart find someone new to love. It’s now officially been over a month since I posted the last of my Top 50 Rankings and in that time, you’ve probably found a new friend in Blake Behney and rekindled an old flame with Forrest Kentwell. But I’m hoping, as the calendar flips from August to September, you may consider taking me back. Or at least let me take you out for ice cream. It’s free you know.

While Blake has been diligently researching to plan for the future with his team rankings, I’ve been awarded the luxury of free time to write about whatever I want. That’s been the Olympics (sort of, there are way more events than I ever imagined), that’s been The Running Diaries and, most recently, it’s been state championship history. I’m assuming that, because none of you are my mother or Garrett Zatlin, you probably haven’t read most of these posts. That’s understandable. I tend to drone on for a while without ever getting to the point. As you may have noticed.

But what I learned from the extra hours of research (besides the fact that I have odd choices for how to spend my free time) is that the Hershey course, the once frightening and oppressive beast, has lost some of its edge. Heck, I’m not even sure it smells as bad at Poop Out Hill as it used to. So I’m sitting here and asking you Pennsylvania, have we figured out how to beat the chocolate town’s golf course? And if we have … is it time to pick a new home for our state’s most enjoyable state championship?

So let’s just back up real quick. Spare me a quick moment’s history. In 2006, we had a Hershey Parkview lay out. In 2007, we made a slightly harder version. Then, in 2008, we debuted the current model. Everything from 2008 on has been “apples to apples” (this is one of my favorite adult business person phrases), meaning we can compare everything directly without adjustment.

Although, I’m not sure this phrase makes sense, I can compare oranges and apples just fine … but probably a discussion for another day. Getting back on track now …

It’s been 8 seasons now on the Poop Out lay-out. I’ve gone on record as saying how awesome that is as we have the chance to compare across multiple eras. For stat geeks and history buffs, having the state course in the same place is undeniably ideal. But a stat geek or a history buff can also see very quickly the times are trending downward in a hurry.

Let’s take a quick look:

2008

Average Time for AAA State Champs: 16:55

Average Time for AA State Champs: 17:41

Average Time for AAA 5^th Place Team: 17:18

AAA/AA 1^st – 16:10/16:18

AAA/AA 25^th – 16:50/17:21

AAA/AA 50^th – 17:11/17:45

2015

Average Time for AAA State Champs: 16:09

Average Time for AA State Champs: 17:15

Average Time for AAA 5^th Place Team: 16:55

AAA/AA 1^st – 15:39/15:49

AAA/AA 25^th – 16:19/16:53

AAA/AA 50^th – 16:43/17:20

Worth noting, those AA drops came despite the fact that the small school classification was essentially ripped in two when we switched to a three classification system in 2012.

In 2009, we saw the first sub 16s on this course from Brad Miles and Rad Gunzenhauser. In 2010, we saw five more guys dip under. After a blip in 2011, 2012 featured four sub 16, including the first outside AAA. Then 2013 had another three before 2014 and 2015 brought the house down. In 2014, there were TEN under 16 and then, a year later, there were another TWELVE. That’s 22 in the past two seasons after just 14 in the previous 6 seasons combined. After jaw dropping years from 2012 through 2015, things have to finally slow down in 2016, right? Or is there any chance we could see 16 sub 16 in ‘16? OK, actually I want that one. That one sounds cool.

Did you know that Jimmy Tarsnane’s winning time in 2008 would have been about 20^th in merged results for 2015. That’s a crazy fact for anyone inside that top 20 without state gold. Now to be fair, there’s more variables that go into this equation (he types as he pushes up his glasses on his nose). There’s things like weather and level of competition for starters (2015 was such a good year the 15^th fastest runner from states, Kent Hall, made nationals as an individual). I was there in 2008 and I was there in 2015 and the temperature was very different. Plus, as you may have noticed from All Decade Team, Jake Brophy is one of our best ever and having him help set the pace for back to back championships (right after Tony Russell I might add), has to count for something.

But there’s also elements like pacing, additional confidence and better coaching that have improved over time and led to better times. That comes from having years of experience on a course and takes some of the variability out of what used to be the most wildly unpredictable meet of the year (Outdoor States was easily the most wildly unpredictable meet of the year in 2015-2016. What happened to you XC?).

Just look quickly at the upsets. Guys are bringing their “A Game” to the state meet in recent year’s like they haven’t quite been able to in the past. I’d say I have a reasonably strong grasp on who the pre-race favorites were during each of the last 8 state championships (not to brag). So let’s take a look, just at AAA for now, at a quick tally of upsets, mild surprises, less obvious picks and obvious picks.

Teams

Upsets – 2008, 2011

Mild Surprises – 2012

Less Obvious – 2009, 2014

Obvious – 2010, 2013, 2015

Individuals

Upsets – 2008, 2010, 2011

Mild Surprises – 2012, 2014

Obvious – 2009, 2013, 2015

You can argue over the semantics, sure but we’ve seen a lot of big favorites winning in recent years and not a ton of upsets. Part of that is, again, the cast of talent we’ve seen. But part of it may be because guys are learning how to excel on this course. Those pivotal “off days” that used to swing state championships that used to be a fact of the meet are turning up less and less on the Hershey hills.

It’s interesting, last year at states I got the chance to talk briefly with a bunch of different teams. One of them was the silver medal winners, North Allegheny. I remember saying to them, “You know, this course is so difficult. You’re basically guaranteed to have at least one off day.”

And then one of the Tigers very politely responded, “Yeah … but, actually, we didn’t really have any.” And I thought about it, and realized they were right. In fact, you can make a strong argument that over the past three seasons they really haven’t had any off days. It’s kind of wild. Especially when you consider that North Allegheny was one of the victims to one of the biggest surprises in recent history in 2008 when LaSalle jumped them during their NXN year (shameless plug, I just posted about this recently).

Because here’s the bottom line. Having upsets may make things more fun, but we ultimately want the best teams and individuals to do well at states. We want to reward the hardest working and most talented performers. If we increase the variability too much, we will introduce a level of randomness to a sport that, in theory, should be one of the simplest out there.

Off days happen. There’s no getting around it. But I’m not going to sit here and root for off days to happen. I want to see everyone at their absolute best on State Championship Saturday this year. And whether the winning time in 15:20 or 17:20, if all the athletes leave knowing they put everything they could into the race and into the season, then I think we will have had a fantastic state championship.

But also, #16sub16in16 could be a really cool hashtag that would be a lot of fun. So maybe I’ll cut the touchy feel good stuff and just root hard core for fast times and that’s it. I’m no hip, young whipper snapper (clearly, considering I just said whipper snapper), but I think hashtags may be our ticket to getting to the blog to #8.

Stay classy and enjoy the classes.

Train

PS Check back tomorrow night for my AAA sleeper picks ... if you are into that sort of thing ...