Etrain Sleepers: PIAA AAA Team

By Jarrett Felix

District One

In 2007, 2008 and 2011, North Penn was state champions in XC. They also qualified for states in 2009 and 2010, placing second at the District One Championships. However, since their stunning victory in 2011, the Knights have not been back to the state meet. I think that has a real strong chance to change in 2016.

A year ago, the varsity scorers were three sophomores, a junior and a freshman, yet the team finished 9^th in the always loaded District One. Their first runner to cross the line was just 55^th, but their pack did work behind him as they finished with a 32 second spread. They beat some really strong teams like Owen J. Roberts, West Chester East and Conestoga. I think this team definitely could be a Spring Ford esque team in 2016 with a strong pack that contends for a state qualifying spot. However, they also could be more like 2015 CR North (slightly better pack that carried them to 5^th at states) or maybe even 2014 CB West if their front runners can make a strong enough jump (O’Toole could be a lot like Fortna and the other similarities between the rosters are eerily similar).

2015 was a relatively unprecedented year as all five state qualifying teams were in the top 6 the previous year. Usually there are some surprising jumps from year to year. In 2014, DT West jumped from 8^th to 5^th and CB West jumped from 24^th to 3^rd. In 2013, Conestoga made the leap from 17^th to 2^nd and Penncrest jumped from 9^th to 5^th. And in 2012, WC East jumped from 8^th to 3^rd with DT West making the move from 20^th to 5^th. So basically, there’s usually a borderline team who jumps in and a surprise team who jumps in from way down the district rankings (your guess is as good as mine who this could be …).

Although their PRs come from the quick Lehigh course, they have four guys who ran under 17 a year ago with a rising sophomore at 17:01. Those guys really delivered on the track. They had a monster 4x8 which Dan Santiago really contributed to (we clocked him around 1:56.0 on his split) as just a sophomore. The kid has some serious heart and a feel for the moment. He was one of the few Knights that had his best race at Districts last year and could really fly on the quick Lehigh lay out. Then you have Brendan O’Toole who ran 4:25 and 9:44 on the track after running 16:23 as just a sophomore. The sophomore class was loaded last year so we missed guys like O’Toole who would normally fly to the forefront of his year with those marks. After racing in the district finals, he should have an extra bit of confidence in his ability to run with the best in PA.

Zach Thomas (XC specialist who ran multiple 16:40s), Colin Grace (16:48 as a sophomore, 4:32 on the track, brother ran 15:40s), and Nick Cataldi (17:01, 10:11 and 4:44 as a frosh) round out the top five returners. Each has a chance to really compete and push the top guys. Thomas and Grace each led the team in some big meets last year. Among other pieces to watch, rising sophomore Brian Johnson ran 10:15 as a freshman last year and Kyle Parncutt dropped consistent time over the stretch run, dropping all the way to 17:13 when he hit the varsity ranks for districts. North Penn also has the large school advantage in their back pocket which, although not necessarily a popular advantage to discuss, definitely helps.

Ultimately, I really like the fact that their entire pack returns. I feel like this squad could spend the whole summer training together and talking about the big future they could have together. They have a nice mix of skill sets with real fast speed runners and strength runners. Plus, they come from a program known for its success that will likely be hungry to return to that type of form. This is my sleeper team for a top five finish in states for AAA.

District 3
I’ve always felt strong competition brings out the best in everyone. It’s not a particularly crazy idea and you probably agree honestly. But here’s why I bring it up. With the Affolders coming to Carlisle, District 3 is going to be in the spot light a bit more than normal. Hempfield has developed into something of a power in its own right, winning back to back district titles. Wilson is an intriguing young squad. So is Hershey with stud Mike Morris. Nate Henderson and Zach Lefever are sub 16 guys at Hershey on the right day.

But despite all the chatter, there’s been little mention of the most consistent program in District 3. That would be Cumberland Valley. CV has consistently qualified for the state championships, was a top 10 team in the state in 2014 and nearly upset Hempfield for the district crown in 2015. They return four of their top six runners from a year ago, including three rising juniors and 9^th place finisher Yahya Soliman (who holds a sub 16 PR from Paul Short as a sophomore and has incredible talent). Andrew Brown, sub 10 on the track, seems like a consistent XC presence who could make a nice jump in his junior season. He led the team for the majority of the year in 2015.

And don’t forget Josh Higgins. He ran 9:29 his sophomore year and has run 16:21 for 5k. This past track season he transitioned nicely into a mid distance runner, helping contribute to the team’s sub 8 relay that made the state final. This guy is a big talent who didn’t make it to the district finals last fall, but, if healthy, could be a valuable extra piece as CV looks to reclaim the district title and a top spot in the state.

As the chatter revolves around almost everyone besides them in the preseason, I’d bet they come out with an extra spark in 2016.

District 3 also has two more of my favorite sleeper squads for 2016. First there is Mechanicsburg who has two guys in my XC top 50, including Morgan Cupp who was top 5 in the district a year ago. They also have Andrew Sulon (30^th last year) and rising sophomore Brandan Knepper (17:32 as a frosh at districts). That, in theory, could get them 4 guys in the top 40-50 with 3 in the top 20. They will need a #5 to emerge (they return their 5, 6, 7 but somebody needs to become a strong sub 18 guy from that group), but they could potentially pull out something like Carlisle did in 2014.

But the team I’m most excited to watch run is Lower Dauphin. The 2013 District 3 champions have put together some of the sickest top 3s of the past three seasons. In 2013, they had 4-16-19 at districts. In 2014, they had 8-10-11 and in 2015, they had 5-15-16. However, they missed out on states in 2014 (by 5 points) and again in 2015 (this time by a larger 63 points). However, they do return their entire top 7 for 2016 and this group has to be incredibly hungry to make their return to states.

Kyler Shea is an absolute beast. I think he’s going to be a state medalist this year and he already boasts two top 10 finishes in District 3 XC without his senior season. Colton Cassel has two top 20 finishes on his resume and his coming off his best track season yet where he ran 9:44 for 3200. Jared Giannascoli is making the sophomore to junior jump after finishing 16^th at Districts and 51^st at states. He also ran 2:01 for 800 last year, showing he has strong race.

But the key will be the 4-5 spot as it has been the past two seasons. As I mentioned, they return their entire top 7 and their 4 through 7 from a year ago will all be seniors this year. That means it’s these guys last chance to make it to a state championship. It’s now or never and sometimes that backs against the wall mentality can bring out the best in your pack runners. They have two sub 18 returners in Peter Gingrich and Elliott Cassel, both of whom showed real promise in the 800 on the track (LD ran a sneaky good 8:02 last year).

They also have a very intriguing rising junior in Steven Schankweiler who ran 4:30 for 1600 in the spring. Over the past few seasons, Lower Dauphin has done a fantastic job developing young talent. Jeff Groh won the district championship as just a sophomore and Cassel, Shea and Giannascoli have all been top 16 performers at districts as sophomores. So maybe they will pull another sophomore into the fray who can be yet another option for the team to round out their pack.

I’m on record standing behind my top three theory and this team’s top 3 is just as good as almost anyone’s (probably only Carlisle’s is clearly better) so if they can survive the madness that will be the district 3 championships, I’m predicting a big showing for them at states.

District 7

My last sleeper is a simple one and I’m not going to give too much analysis on it because it’s not that kind of sleeper pick. I’m giving you the name North Allegheny as a sleeper. Why are they a sleeper? Because, after a little research of my own, I’ve got them as the #1 team in the state for 2016. Not sure anybody else out there has them ranked that high so, technically, they qualify as a sleeper in that sense.

Also keep an eye on Pitts CC and Canon-Mac out of the WPIAL in what should be quite the battle for the 2^nd and 3^rd spots in that district.