Flash Back Friday

Although the AAA WPIAL has been successful at state championships in the past, competing as arguably the state’s second best district, the west hasn’t had two top five teams at states since 2011. That season also happened to be the best performance for Mount Lebanon in the last decade as they took home 4th place overall and were just a few rolls of the dice away from the state championship.

Two weekends into 2017, the narrative is somewhat similar. We have two WPIAL teams who are ranked in the top five of the state with a few others looming. And we have Mount Lebanon right to lead the charge up the ranks.

Entering the 2011 season, Mount Lebanon returned six members of their varsity squad which had placed 7th in the state the previous year (just 11 points out of 4th). 2011 was, undoubtedly, a transition year for the state on the whole. 11 of the top 12 state medalists in AAA for 2010 were graduating. There was just one sophomore in the top 40 state finishers, so it appeared the young talent waiting to fill the shoes of the graduated elite was not there either.

From this turnover, the experienced Mount Lebanon squad emerged. Alex Moran, who was one of the 7 returning state medalists, blasted a 15:30 for tops in the WPIAL at the Red, White and Blue Invitational. His teammates backed him up as Lawton Tellin and Kevin Tramaglini finished 10th and 16th respectively, followed by Scott Westover and Seamus Roddy in 22nd and 33rd. Overall, through 7 guys, Lebo was the deepest team in the state, even better than defending champions North Allegheny. Their final average on the quick course was 16:08.

Flash forward six years later. Again, only 7 of the previous year’s medalists are back. Seniors made up every single medal spot from 16th through 24th in last year’s championships. Many of the top teams were hit by graduation. This time, Mt Lebo was not a returning state power. They didn’t qualify for the 2016 state championships and were actually just 6th at districts. However, they returned five of their top seven runners including two young state qualifiers.

At the Red, White and Blue Invitational this year, Lebo didn’t have a front runner like Alex Moran was in 2011, but they had an even better pack. Patrick Anderson, Peter Cosentino, and Alex Brokaw took the top three spots for Lebo in 9th, 10th and 16th. Again, the deep pack was on display with 23rd and 32nd place finishes rounding out the top 5. In total, Lebo had 88 points, a 16:16 average but a dynamite 33 second spread. They were victorious at the invite, defeating the defending WPIAL champions. Just like they did in 2011.

Looking back at that 2011 team, the next few races were strong. Lebo battled hard with Cardinal O’Hara at the Foundation Invite, losing by 6 points in a tight race. Here, the Lebo pack was bested by a tighter one from O’Hara. At the Tri-State Championships, Lebo moved one step closer to that elusive WPIAL title by scoring 76 points to North Allegheny’s 90. This time their spread was excellent with just 39 seconds separating the 1 to 5.

Unfortunately, when the Lebo boys returned to Coopers a week later, the rain was pouring down about the course. In a dramatic turn from Zach Hebda’s blazing run a year earlier, the district title was won in just 17:04. North Allegheny shocked the world by scoring 50 points in the muddy conditions and Mount Lebanon barely hung on for 2nd as Pittsburgh CC was breathing down their neck.

However, that Lebo team was resilient. They overcame the loss and performed admirably at states. Alex Moran took home a second straight medal with Lawton Tellin finishing in the top 30 as well. That 1-2 punch helped lead Mount Lebanon to a 4th place finish with just 153 points, only 19 points away from a state championship.

They say history repeats itself and maybe we will see a similar battle between Mount Lebanon and this year’s defending district champions, Seneca Valley. The discrepancy between the two teams in week one was comparable to the gap in 2011. Both teams are currently projected to be top 5 teams in the state and the PA team title landscape seems ripe for a wild state meet similar to the one we saw in 2011.

Yet as great as that season was for Lebo in 2011, the members of this year’s team may be hoping against the tides of repetitive history. After some struggles at Coopers Lake in the past, Mount Lebanon should be hoping for redemption on the district course. Not only do they have a battle on their hands for the district title, but they will have close competitors in North Allegheny and Baldwin who will be looking to knock them out of the state picture entirely.

In the end, maybe the way to close this post is with a simple quote from philosopher George Santayana. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

Ultimately, that’s why everyone should read this blog on a daily basis.

I feel like I just ruined a moment. Well, it’s gone now.


Good luck to all the WPIAL schools this year. It’s going to be fun to watch.

17 comments:

  1. It was kind of a lame weekend but CRN was revealed to be not very deep. They're probably PA #5 right now behind Lebo, SV, LaSalle and Shanahan.

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  2. sometimes i get really confused by the analysis here, so i try not to put too much time into commenting these days. etrain i feel like you've done such an incredible job of modeling analysis over the years. i hope it catches on soon.

    crn didn't race their #2 returner and a state medalist today. If he places inside the top 15 they win.

    i totally agree they lack depth, but if Earley races healthy (so placing 3rd or 4th in this race) they put 4 in the top 8. and we all have watched campbell over the past 3 years get so so so much better after September. if CRN puts 4 in the top 30-35 runners in AAA with one runner in even the 17:20's they will win this title.

    just for some clarity on team points CRN currently looks like 3+12+15+20+62 = 112. i would imagine this year that between 100-125 wins a team title.

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    1. CRN has a lot of ifs but Mount Lebanon has a lot of runners.

      Historically depth wins states.

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    2. hmmm, interesting point about depth at states. certainly 2011-2013 depth was really important, but the last 4 state championships the team with the most depth didn't necessarily win (and last year depth didn't matter at all).

      and CRN always has "a lot of ifs" at the beginning of the season, which etrain and i keep trying to remind you of. and right now those "ifs" to me have been fairly eliminated by Ergott's racing this season. i thought he would be much further behind, so i think he has solidified things for me despite Mount Lebanon having clear depth advantage and exponentially getting better with such a young crew.

      Sam Earley started the race (from the race video at Briarwood). He didn't enter the woods (1.1 miles into the race) and Rusty in his interview insinuated that going out too fast was tough on such a hot day. I am guessing the heat got to Earley and he dropped out rather than push through. Smart racing decisions this early in the season.

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    3. Depth mattered big time last year. CRN had it, Carlisle didn't. CRN won it on the strength of their 4th-7th being much better that Carlisle's.

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    4. Speaking from experience, CRN always looks week early in the season, and they always pull it together later int the Fall. That just is the way of the world. We can sit here and doubt them all we want but I know that barring injuries, they arn't worried

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  3. Briarwood Takeaways: (mind you, times were extremely slow from the heat. Especially deeper back in the race.)

    -La Salle looked great. The squad checks off every question, from front running, to depth. Even with a bit of a drop off after #5, they had Ghantous drop a 17:51 to win JV, so he will help bolster that back end of the top 7. And then of course, destroying the JV races, the rest of the army was full on display. Per usual, La Salle looks strong, but we seem to have this same narrative every year. They look like a title contender early on, but can never seem to break that top 3 at states. Even if this isn't their year, its a very young team.

    CRN- I will not yet lean one way or the other on CRN's squad until I see the whole squad finish a race. That being said, while I think they still have the best 5 in the state, their lack of depth CAN be a problem, as shown with Earley having to drop out, costing them the title. Basically, if they get that top 5 on the line at states and they all finish, they'll probably come away with the title.

    Twin Valley- This is a really good team that is one man away from contending, not just for a district championship, but probably for a top 10 spot at states. They had an off day from Schlegel and just really are missing that #5 spot. If Hill, a 2:02 800 runner, can step up and fill that role, they're looking at finishing with 110-120 points, possibly beating CRN. If they don't fill that #5 spot, they probably won't see Hershey. If they do, they could be district champions.

    Great Valley-Had the tightest time spread by far in the meet, looks as if they've developed some really good pack running. Coates was 16:24 as a sophomore last year, so if this pack can stay intact and get a good low stick, they could be a deep sleeper out of D1.

    Haverford-They're running pretty well for a group of really young guys. Don't quite have any studs or a particularly tight spread, but they're a really young team with a ton of room to grow, being lead by a sophomore and junior in Donnelly and Peetros.


    Challenge Race-

    Malvern Prep/Episcopal- I think the main takeaway for this race was that the Independent school teams are definitely in a down year, however, the race for the individuals is extremely competitve, with guys like Lindgren, Borger, and Harper. Also big race from the Cheltenham's Cornelison. Could definitely grab a state qualifying spot out of D1.

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    1. Found this analysis very insightful. Well thought out. Feel like people are going to both extremes with CRN, but this post sends a good middle message. Great stuff, hope to see more from you.

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    2. I agree CRN wins last week and this week if their full varsity ran/finished. However, I also agree with those saying depth is an issue. Even if Early placed yesterday about where he normally would, they win, but they would still have a 2:00 spread from 1st to 5th. Etrain probably has a spreadsheet available to confirm this but I think most state champions are around 1:00-1:10, and no team in the last few years has finished top 5 with a 2:00+ spread, with the exception of last year’s Carlisle. So depth is a legitimate concern. The good news is it’s still September so there’s still plenty of time to develop the 5-7, but they’ve got some work to do. I still consider CRN the favorite but Mt. Lebanon is looking pretty good so far.

      -RJJL

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    3. The Carlisle over 2 minutes spread had a lot to with Noah Affolder running so fast but the point is valid. If your 5th and up are in 70th-80th, that's a lot of points to overcome.

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    4. totally loving these last few comments! been interesting checking out "depth".
      Maybe a pole on what we mean by "Depth"
      a) 3-5 runners
      b) 4/5-7 runners
      c) ______?

      i was looking up all of the winning teams since 2007 and the average spread 1-5 is 1:02
      lowest was :46 (seconds) by North Penn in 2011.
      highest was 1:28 by North Allegheny in 2010
      Most are from :55-1:05

      these certainly validate Mount Lebanon whose squad I think falls perfectly into this trend. It will be interesting to see if CRN can get that 5th man within the 1:30 range. That would be like Ryan Campbell running 15:50 and having a 5th man at 17:20 (which for soph. Matt Mullen would be a 34 second improvement, but he also hasn't raced this season).

      Lastly, i will add that Vincent Twomey looks really good with that 7th place finish as a sophomore. His class is really exciting, and I think that LaSalle is a top 3 team for certain.

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    5. Personally, I think about 4/5/6. I feel like most competitive teams have good top 3s, or else they wouldn't be near the top to begin with.

      The problem comes at the last 2 spots, where guys can get buried amongst all the other team scorers. I like teams to have competition for the last 2 spots as a sort of back-up plan if someone has an off day. So in that case, I guess I like Lebo right now.

      But we all know you only need 5, which is why CRN is still such a big threat. They have the best 1-4 in the state, so they can get by if they can put their 4 ahead of Lebo's 2, for instance.

      But to answer your question Forrest, I say depth=strong through 6.

      -Jiminy Cricket

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  4. Ricky Fowler might have DOMS, some mascots seem to have taken over the commericals. Too much too soon. He was dominating over the summer and in the first few weeks. Hopefully it's nothing serious and he's maybe just dialing it back a little for the late season peak.

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  5. Foundation will help answer a lot of questions this weekend. Specifically, for the D7 teams up front for the title battle, and the D1 teams towards the back, looking to qualify. In complete honesty, I have CRN and DTW 1-2, and I truly have about 8 teams that I think are competing for those last 3 spots. Most of them are toeing the line at Foundation. Will certainly be interesting to see.

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  6. Any word on why Noah Beveridge dropped out of the Boardman race? Apparently he was leading with about 1K left, but didn't finish.

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    1. Also David Endres does not show up on his team's results this weekend?

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