So serious question right now: what is the deal with these meets where they run every race by class? Are they just trying to make me upset?
I have a tough time just combining races and saying yeah those results mean the same thing. Like who knows if Smucker would have run faster with more competition or if he benefited from being in a smaller race where he gained confidence being at the front? Same goes for Sappey of DT West.
Now I'm thinking mainly of the Cherokee meet when I say this, but North Penn, Governor Mifflin and Rustin went to another meet with the same set up and made me just as confused with guys like Carmody putting on big races but dodging someone like Ryan Tung, a legit state medalist candidate and sub 16 man. I would have liked to see how they stack up head to head to see where Carmody is as a state qualifier candidate. Plus Rustin and NP are both competing against each other in the top 10 of the district based on a quick analysis of early results, it would be nice to have a good idea of what each squad has. The scores show NP dominating, but that is slightly skewed because A) they are a huge school and B) their freshman dominated relative to Rustin. And really I'm not sure how many freshman will make an impact at districts (although NP has some nice pieces to work with to develop a pack by season's end). Rustin with Carmody and Hontz as well as Coates and Vogt look like they have a nice pack so far, but I would have liked to see what it looked like all together. NP will be decent this year, especially with a front runner like Tung who looked quite strong this weekend in an under the radar performance.
Neither team is in state qualifying team right now in my eyes, but top 10 in D1 is a noble goal and an impressive achievement.
The big dogs were in NJ for Cherokee with Conestoga again running a dang 2 mile race and again not running full squad. Plus they had their dudes spread out in different races.
If you think that's tricky DT West had the same fate with their boys spread across 4 races with legitimate varsity contenders in each one.
Plus you got Henderson and a Sam Webb-less Pennsbury, a couple teams vying for states, with their guys spread across the races. Did I mention it also was just a 2 mile?
Seriously, I don't see the appeal of this meet. Unless I guess your DT West and you can win the meet despite not having the best traditional team score.
It was a nice overall showing for PA teams with Conestoga and DT West both having strong days. Stoga did not have one of their top 5 guys in Killian Nelson but still managed to beat DTW in the combined scoring by roughly 50 points. Marston is a stud, he looks great right now, just needs to showcase that talent on a dang 5k. Behind him the top 5 is developing: and it's a good one. Murray, Nelson, Cruikshank and Cooper are the next 4 and Cooper was a top 50 guy in the state last year. If they get their top 5 in the top 50, it's hard for me to imagine them slipping past 2nd and winning is very possible.
I'm still convinced in this diluted AAA, you probably need two state medalists to get you a title in addition to a nice pack. It's hard to say or sure because we saw three of the states best teams ever the last two years in addition to some other killer teams, but that's my hunch at this point. NA has a better top 3 then Stoga right now and at states that top 3 becomes even more valuable. Stoga needs to get someone to close the gap on the developing Wharrey and 3-4 guys in front of Seel. They essentially need to be last year's NA team, with a better front runner. That gets them right there for the title.
As for DT West, as Sappey continues to assert himself, their potential grows a bit. I will say this, people are so high on their 1-7 depth and that's nice and all but any way you slice it only 5 guys score. So I don't really care if DT West can put 7 in front of somebody's 4 or 5, if that other squad's top 3 blows you out of the water at states there is no beating them.
At states, basically everyone is at least good which means those 51-150 spots are practically random. Run that race 100x and you get 100 different combinations. So things are too unpredictable for 4-5 for most teams and things almost become interchangeable. That's why your top 3 or so guys become so crucial. In my eyes it's about getting guys in the top 50 at states. That's the key.
But here's the thing, I still like this DT West team a lot and see them as a potential sleeper at seasons end and it's because of their depth.
But wait I just said it didn't matter didn't I? What the heck train?
Well here's the thing, it matters in a different way. They have young depth. That means they still have so much potential for 5 guys to develop into studs. And I see lots of guys with potential beyond Sappey like the Barton and Oneill and Bullock to name a few. Those guys have to continue to tighten the spread on Sappey, then this team becomes scary. If you get a 30 second spread over 5k (they were about 30 second over 2 miles this weekend) with your top dude in the 20s at states (about where I currently project Sappey) your team looks a lot like ... 2013 NA! Which means DT West has the potential to be a top 2 team in the state. But they have to continue to improve, tighten the pack and Sappey has to set the tone out front by getting into the medals.
Behind these two teams we saw interesting performances from Henderson and Pennsbury. Henderson has been discussed a fairly decent amount already and the bottom line with them is I will wait to judge what they have as long as possible. Right now Knapp is heading to states by himself, but a lot can change. Nice race for Smucker though.
I was very encouraged by Pennsbury's showing. Assuming they are going to get a healthy Webb back, we are looking at a roughly 110 point swing in the merged standings. That wouldn't be enough to get DTW, but it would put them in their league and way clear of Henderson. Sauer was solid as the new leader in Webb's absence and behind him Bortman and Wick stepped up big time. They also had a few youngsters in the other races like Sauer's brother that looked like they could potentially fill the gap the team has at #5.
Pennsbury will need to get Webb back healthy, but assuming he is there, they have 4 guys who look strong. This was Pennsbury's first competitive race as well, meaning they should adjust to racing and continue to improve. I still Sauer as a force, especially at Districts on a fast course so that 1-2 punch is sick. With the current all around depth in D1, making states is going to be really hard and all 5 guys will matter at districts, unlike states, where a there is more of a range of talent and just more points overall available. But Pennsbury is off to a nice start in their quest to get back to states.
Thought #2: Appropriately Titled
The new classification changes were going to shake up the state landscape at least a little bit. I mean just ask Grove City who went from being a mid to back of the pack team in AAA and is now suddenly a year in and year out power. The same goes for Tunkhannock, the defending state champs.
Overall, the winner of this classification change so far seems to be district 2. Their AAA depth fall off hard with the loss of Tunkhannock and Dallas, but District 2 was never a strong title contender in AAA. Now D2 is becoming the powerhouse of AA. For starters last years champs in AA were Deluca and Tunkhannock: both from district 2. Now the early favorites are for this year's title are Scranton Prep and Dom Hockenbury. Hockenbury's accomplishments are fairly well documented at this point and although he was absent from the big races this weekend, he is still a 9:17 man with a state title and another runner up finish. He's a fantastic runner and only a Junior with room to grow.
Currently pursuing Hockenbury is emerging star Jack Tidball from Tunkhannock. He's coming off a third place finish at Spiked Shoe where he defeated two time state champ Zach Brehm among others. Tidball finished only behind Molino and helped the defending champs open their season on the right foot.
Tidball was the lead runner on a state title team last season and only got better on the track. He dipped into the 9:20s in the 3200m without seeing really deep competition like some of the other times from the states elite. His resume indicates he would have given Hockenbury a good run for his money at districts and states on the track if he wasn't lost in the shuffle of the studs in AAA. Tidball added his name to a growing list of "hey I can win that AA state title" types following in the footsteps of Kachman and Hilverding from the previous weeks.
Scranton Prep finished Spike Shoe nibbling at the heels of Carlisle, a team widely considered one of the best 10 in the state, and ahead of State College. They did it with a strong punch up front, and that ever so popular experience term that teams like keep the experts from jumping on bandwagons like DT West. 7 seniors led the way for Scranton Prep with top 10 finishes by Kyle Perry and Ben Evans helping lower the score. Both guys are hungry to leave Hershey with a pair of medals.
And it's not just AA where D2 should make noise. The always dangerous Elk Lake will be in the mix for some state medals like were in the Luke Jones days. Northeast Bradford may be the early favorite according to some, but the boys from Lakeland will also be hoping to make a statement when the dust clears at Hershey. They need to sure up the rest of their top 5, but they are building behind two stars in Nate Morgan and Mark Arzie and they are a very good program historically, especially on the track where they have had some impressive 4x8s. Morgan is extremely talented and coming off a 4:21 mark and key 4x8 legs. He was a top finisher at last years state meet and will be one of the first runners fans will look to if Molino falters in his title defense.
District 2 has it's claws out, and they are looking to take hold of the small school scene this year.
Overall, the winner of this classification change so far seems to be district 2. Their AAA depth fall off hard with the loss of Tunkhannock and Dallas, but District 2 was never a strong title contender in AAA. Now D2 is becoming the powerhouse of AA. For starters last years champs in AA were Deluca and Tunkhannock: both from district 2. Now the early favorites are for this year's title are Scranton Prep and Dom Hockenbury. Hockenbury's accomplishments are fairly well documented at this point and although he was absent from the big races this weekend, he is still a 9:17 man with a state title and another runner up finish. He's a fantastic runner and only a Junior with room to grow.
Currently pursuing Hockenbury is emerging star Jack Tidball from Tunkhannock. He's coming off a third place finish at Spiked Shoe where he defeated two time state champ Zach Brehm among others. Tidball finished only behind Molino and helped the defending champs open their season on the right foot.
Tidball was the lead runner on a state title team last season and only got better on the track. He dipped into the 9:20s in the 3200m without seeing really deep competition like some of the other times from the states elite. His resume indicates he would have given Hockenbury a good run for his money at districts and states on the track if he wasn't lost in the shuffle of the studs in AAA. Tidball added his name to a growing list of "hey I can win that AA state title" types following in the footsteps of Kachman and Hilverding from the previous weeks.
Scranton Prep finished Spike Shoe nibbling at the heels of Carlisle, a team widely considered one of the best 10 in the state, and ahead of State College. They did it with a strong punch up front, and that ever so popular experience term that teams like keep the experts from jumping on bandwagons like DT West. 7 seniors led the way for Scranton Prep with top 10 finishes by Kyle Perry and Ben Evans helping lower the score. Both guys are hungry to leave Hershey with a pair of medals.
And it's not just AA where D2 should make noise. The always dangerous Elk Lake will be in the mix for some state medals like were in the Luke Jones days. Northeast Bradford may be the early favorite according to some, but the boys from Lakeland will also be hoping to make a statement when the dust clears at Hershey. They need to sure up the rest of their top 5, but they are building behind two stars in Nate Morgan and Mark Arzie and they are a very good program historically, especially on the track where they have had some impressive 4x8s. Morgan is extremely talented and coming off a 4:21 mark and key 4x8 legs. He was a top finisher at last years state meet and will be one of the first runners fans will look to if Molino falters in his title defense.
District 2 has it's claws out, and they are looking to take hold of the small school scene this year.
Weekend 3 Thought #1: Who's #1?
Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Let's find out with my thoughts of the week for weekend 3.
It's funny how quickly the court of public opinion can swing. After PTXC we saw Colin Abert dominate, run a course record, and become the consensus pick for the AAA state title. He was easily #1 on most people's state wide ranking (including my own) and for some it wasn't even close.
But another weekend brings another result, and Abert gets pushed from our minds and replaced with the Junior from Malvern Prep, Jaxson Hoey. And heck, throw in the Junior Jake Brophy. The duo both broke 15:40 on a grueling course with rain in the forecast. According to sources the course has been extended from it's old length which would mean Hoey and Brophy had a race equivalent to Joe and Jim Rosa. Keep in mind Joe's Junior season he smashed the course record at Holmdel in sub 15, ran brilliant at Manhattan and was outkicked for the NXN title. Jim was right behind him almost every time. To mention Hoey and Brophy in the same context is special.
But we can't just throw out Abert's huge win at PTXC over another state title favorite in Dom Hockenbury. He was completely solo on his way to a 15:21 course record in hot and humid disgusting conditions. He would have embraced a little rain in the forecast.
And heck, Griffin Molino might have been the state'a second best XC runner a year ago, behind Russell. He won A states in the same time as Abert and then qualified for NXN. He ran 4:12 and 9:19 on the track and started his season with an easy looking 15:43 at Spike Shoe. Should we really not be including him in best runner in the state talks.
And of course I doubt we have seen the last of Kevin James whose 1:55/4:12/9:03 resume on the track looks pretty intimidating next to his 4th at states, NXN qualifier and 3 other state medals. This might have been the kinda wake up call he needed as these young guys went and kicked him around.
But there's more here. Like what about Andrew Marston? Sure he doesn't seem like a guy who was #1 in the state this past weekend, but just remember he still isn't in his true element at 5k, yet he crushed Sam Ritz at Belmont by 13 seconds in the 3k. Project that to Briarwood where Ritz, likely faster at 3k than 5k, ran low 16s, and there was a top group for Marston to chase you could have been looking at a 15:40s-15:30s mark. It's not too absurd to think it's possible. Marston was a top 10 guy in the state last year and since that moment he has only improved. He is trying to lead a team to a state title and that added motivation could be a big lift when the going gets tough at states. Why can't he take home a title?
Then you have guys like Casey Comber (quietly breaks 16 at a very difficult course in DeSales), Matt McGoey and Hunter Wharrey (best runners in the dangerous WPIAL), Hockenbury, Kachman, and Sam Webb (hopefully not injured after being MIA this weekend). And I'm not ready to count out Zach Brehm. Remember in track when he lulled everyone to sleep with modest times and fairly underwhelming (for him) performances and the suddenly burst onto the scene by dominating districts, winning states and running a set of blazing mile type races. And because we are throwing in Brehm we can't forget Aaron Gebhardt, the guy who might end up the best runner in D3 when the dust clears.
It's awesome how many guys have the potential to finish the year #1. It's still early in the year, but Hoey is probably #1 right now and in a few months it may sound ridiculous that I even said probably. He ran something like 1:54/4:11c/9:07 on the track and screamed, "I'm taking the next step guys!" Now in his soph to junior jump he is getting Joe Rosa comparisons: and they aren't even that crazy. Wow.
And hey, the AAA championship is going to be a dog fight. Jake Brophy had himself a huge race as well. His track season would have been even more memorable had he not been sacrificing his 3200m marks in favor of a very good 4x8 that pushed him out of his comfort zone. Brophy dropped to 1:55 as a soph, a time that we usually associate with great 800m prospects and he's a 2 miler. Remember he beat KJ indoors and came within a hair of beating Deluca. He was my pick to win the 3k indoors. He might have been able to run 9:05 last year and we just won't ever know. With that talent, Brophy is dangerous, even against Abert, a guy who has gone from being underrated, to maybe a tad overrated, back to underrated quite quickly.
I'm not going to pick my winner for the state race in September no matter what the circumstances are, but as of now I can't even guarantee anyone will be a top 5 guy. This is a very competitive year across the state in XC (think 2010 was also a great year with Gil, Endress, Campbell, Kildoo, Ayers and the North Hills monster).
I will leave you with a top 7 (that may change by the time my top 50 comes out, let's be real).
7. Comber
6. Marston
5. James
4. Molino
3. Brophy
2. Abert
1. Hoey
It's funny how quickly the court of public opinion can swing. After PTXC we saw Colin Abert dominate, run a course record, and become the consensus pick for the AAA state title. He was easily #1 on most people's state wide ranking (including my own) and for some it wasn't even close.
But another weekend brings another result, and Abert gets pushed from our minds and replaced with the Junior from Malvern Prep, Jaxson Hoey. And heck, throw in the Junior Jake Brophy. The duo both broke 15:40 on a grueling course with rain in the forecast. According to sources the course has been extended from it's old length which would mean Hoey and Brophy had a race equivalent to Joe and Jim Rosa. Keep in mind Joe's Junior season he smashed the course record at Holmdel in sub 15, ran brilliant at Manhattan and was outkicked for the NXN title. Jim was right behind him almost every time. To mention Hoey and Brophy in the same context is special.
But we can't just throw out Abert's huge win at PTXC over another state title favorite in Dom Hockenbury. He was completely solo on his way to a 15:21 course record in hot and humid disgusting conditions. He would have embraced a little rain in the forecast.
And heck, Griffin Molino might have been the state'a second best XC runner a year ago, behind Russell. He won A states in the same time as Abert and then qualified for NXN. He ran 4:12 and 9:19 on the track and started his season with an easy looking 15:43 at Spike Shoe. Should we really not be including him in best runner in the state talks.
And of course I doubt we have seen the last of Kevin James whose 1:55/4:12/9:03 resume on the track looks pretty intimidating next to his 4th at states, NXN qualifier and 3 other state medals. This might have been the kinda wake up call he needed as these young guys went and kicked him around.
But there's more here. Like what about Andrew Marston? Sure he doesn't seem like a guy who was #1 in the state this past weekend, but just remember he still isn't in his true element at 5k, yet he crushed Sam Ritz at Belmont by 13 seconds in the 3k. Project that to Briarwood where Ritz, likely faster at 3k than 5k, ran low 16s, and there was a top group for Marston to chase you could have been looking at a 15:40s-15:30s mark. It's not too absurd to think it's possible. Marston was a top 10 guy in the state last year and since that moment he has only improved. He is trying to lead a team to a state title and that added motivation could be a big lift when the going gets tough at states. Why can't he take home a title?
Then you have guys like Casey Comber (quietly breaks 16 at a very difficult course in DeSales), Matt McGoey and Hunter Wharrey (best runners in the dangerous WPIAL), Hockenbury, Kachman, and Sam Webb (hopefully not injured after being MIA this weekend). And I'm not ready to count out Zach Brehm. Remember in track when he lulled everyone to sleep with modest times and fairly underwhelming (for him) performances and the suddenly burst onto the scene by dominating districts, winning states and running a set of blazing mile type races. And because we are throwing in Brehm we can't forget Aaron Gebhardt, the guy who might end up the best runner in D3 when the dust clears.
It's awesome how many guys have the potential to finish the year #1. It's still early in the year, but Hoey is probably #1 right now and in a few months it may sound ridiculous that I even said probably. He ran something like 1:54/4:11c/9:07 on the track and screamed, "I'm taking the next step guys!" Now in his soph to junior jump he is getting Joe Rosa comparisons: and they aren't even that crazy. Wow.
And hey, the AAA championship is going to be a dog fight. Jake Brophy had himself a huge race as well. His track season would have been even more memorable had he not been sacrificing his 3200m marks in favor of a very good 4x8 that pushed him out of his comfort zone. Brophy dropped to 1:55 as a soph, a time that we usually associate with great 800m prospects and he's a 2 miler. Remember he beat KJ indoors and came within a hair of beating Deluca. He was my pick to win the 3k indoors. He might have been able to run 9:05 last year and we just won't ever know. With that talent, Brophy is dangerous, even against Abert, a guy who has gone from being underrated, to maybe a tad overrated, back to underrated quite quickly.
I'm not going to pick my winner for the state race in September no matter what the circumstances are, but as of now I can't even guarantee anyone will be a top 5 guy. This is a very competitive year across the state in XC (think 2010 was also a great year with Gil, Endress, Campbell, Kildoo, Ayers and the North Hills monster).
I will leave you with a top 7 (that may change by the time my top 50 comes out, let's be real).
7. Comber
6. Marston
5. James
4. Molino
3. Brophy
2. Abert
1. Hoey
Thought #7: The Top 50
Well it's the final of my thoughts for the week! Glad to bring you my opinions and what not. For this last post I decided to bust out a top 50 rather than a top 101 (although I created a top 101 once again and would be happy to post it if there is demand). I figured a top 50 was appropriate because it was kinda my signature thing when I was posting on penntrack and on my original blog so I figured I should stand by my creations from 2008 and keep tradition alive.
So here we go, this is the top 50 as of now. Not state predictions by any means, these rankings are meant to answer the following question: if somebody said "quick, pick a team of runners to run a 5k from PA high school! Race is Saturday!" And then they ran away without giving me any other information what is the order that I would pick people in.
Keep in mind, as usual, I'm doing this from a train so there will be natural grammar errors and I may miss a name or two but that's what the comments are for! So please keep me informed! Ask questions and stir up conversation.
No without any further suspense let's get down to the rankings. I'll pause every 10 or so to give some thoughts. Also I will list in parentheses the amount of spots a person has moved up the rankings so you can key in on some of the guys I feel or on the rise (or guys I just overlooked before). NR indicates this runner was not ranked in the top 101 last round of rankings.
50. C. Holm, Radnor
49. S. Seel, NA
48. K. Nelson, Conestoga (NR)
47. S. Smith, Towanda (+16)
46. R. Budnik, Grove City
45. J. Connors, Wilson
44. G. Mackey, Sedwick (NR)
43. Jo. Hoey, Malven (+4)
42. J. Susalla, Plum (+55)
41. K. Lapsansky, Easton (+25)
This set of 10 features some big movers from the last round of rankings. Susalla nearly broke 16 at RWB and had a victory at Gateway to start the year. He's off to a nice start in the WPIAL. Lapsansky is another guy on the rise after a nice PTXC performance. He could move up this list even more with consistent performances like that, Paul Short should be his next big chance to showcase. Griffin Mackey is a name to remember, just a sophomore emerging as one of the tops in his class. Same goes for little Hoey obviously as Josh looks very strong in the early going for a loaded MP squad. Nelson and Murray (51st this week) are two very nice pieces for Conestoga. Still no 5k yet from them, but strong enough performances to earn mentions this week at the very least. Conestoga is a great team and so they need to be represented here.
40. E. Diestelow, West Chester East
39. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
38. D. Stroh, Altoona
37. W. Loevner, Winchester
36. K. Gonoude, Salisbury
35. A. Benka, Grove City
34. A. Milligan, State College (+37)
33. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
32. B. Arita, CRN (+11)
31. B. Faust, Altoona
No Stroh or Loevner this weekend which was a little concerning, but I'm assuming they just had other commitments rather than injuries keeping them out of the line up. I'll be keeping an eye on it. Stroh has raced this weekend, finishing third to Milligan and Faust who are both also in this section. Milligan is the big mover here after winning his first race of the year. It appears he is ready to take that next step this season, but I will need to see a few more data points before I can rank him ahead of Faust (a returning state medalist who gets the nod here for that reason). At 34, Milligan is my #22 AAA guy, which means he would be a serious medal contender if he holds this position. Arita has an invite win and is the key guy in one of the best programs in the state. Given their history, I'd be surprised if Arita isn't a medalist at states.
30. J. Heinauer, North Hills (+58)
29. Z. Skolnevich, Quaker Valley (+9)
28. H. Sappey, DTW (NR)
27. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst
26. D. Green, James Buchanon (+30)
25. E. Graca, Fox Chapel (+40)
24. S. Hilverding, Waynesburg (+21)
23. J. VanKooten, Pittsburgh CC
22. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin (+48)
21. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep (+2)
Well folks we reached the "holy crap, I really underestimated that guy!" Part of the list! I mean look at those numbers! Sappey gets a big jump here, perhaps this a bit bold to jump him this high this quickly, but I like what he's been able to do so far leading the squad. DTW probably deserves more than 1 guy on the list, but I couldn't figure out who because they have such a great pack of guys. So Sappey goes high on the list to show my respect for the squad on the whole and my confidence in them looking forward. This section also includes Elias Graca, who I touched on in thought #6. He was the 2nd biggest star of the weekend (we will get to #1 later). Sean Hilverding is one of the most underrated AA guys in my eyes so I figured he deserved some love here for his big day. Everyone is talking Hockenbury and Kachman (and by everyone I mostly mean me) but Hilverding is in the mix as well. That race should be fun. Dan Green went out of state and killed it this weekend after giving Brehm a run for his money. I believe Green is also AA which means he belongs in those state title talks as well. AA may be more wide open than it originally appears. There are 5+ guys who can win right now (I feel the same way about AAA but we will get to that). Sean Weidner was about 10 spots lower on this list until news came about his win over Seiger. I chuckled a bit when I saw the comment on padontplay about it. Just remember commenters there is no reason to give a guy extra motivation. Weidner following nicely in the footsteps of Nissley and Groh and has now had 2 impressive performances instead of just the one at PTXC. That's big. One can be a fluke, but two is a trend.
20. Z. Seiger, Red Land
19. P. Power, Spring Ford (+1)
18. A. Knapp, Henderson
17. N. Dahl, GFS (+2)
16. H. Wharrey, NA (+12)
15. W. Kachman, Bedford (+2)
14. C. Comber, Horsham
13. D. Perretta, Beaver
12. S. Ritz, GA (+3)
11. A. Gebhardt (+1)
This group is a fun one. Mostly because I just can't figure out where to place half of them. I'm not sure what Perreta has got and Ritz looked very good in race 1, but it was only a 3k and he is a speed guy at heart. Paul Power very quietly had a nice split at 4xXC (or at least I think he did, who can tell with that results sheet?) and he was quietly very good in the post season last year. It's time someone is loud about him! Sorry got carried away there with the exclamation point. Hunter Wharrey was big for NA. If he continues to progress like this he might give McGoey a run for his money in a race or two which is great because I think McGoey is going to be top 5-10 this year at states.
For the record Comber's interview made me a fan. I love penntrack interviews, they are a nice way to see what guys are like. Good job penntrack. Comber just seemed down to earth, very respectful of his competition and teammates and knew he still had work to do to become one of the best this year. And how about Nick Dahl's interview? The kid came across like a super genius if I'm being honest (his mom did go to Yale so that should have been the first clue) and was another motivated and focused guy. Should my personal opinion of a runner help them in the rankings? Nope. But does it help if I'm secretly rooting for someone? Yeah probably on some subconscious level.
10. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
9. A. Marston, Conestoga (+5)
8. M. McGoey, North Allegheny (+1)
7. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
6. J. Brophy, CB East
I think this group 5 is all of almost identical ability at this point. Marston is the guy with his stock most on the rise after his 8:51 3k at Belmont. (Small side note, everyone wants to destroy RWB for being not a real 5k, but somebody runs 8:51 on trials in September and nobody once is like, hey was that a full 3k? Just saying). Regardless of the length, Marston dominated a field that included Ritz, Dahl and Knapp. As he moves up in distance he will only get better and as things get hillier he will only get better (killed the state course). Big potential here and people are taking notice. McGoey ran blazing fast this weekend even relative to course records and things like that. I'm about seeing who you beat and how you compare to previous years in XC, I could care less about a time by itself. 15:20s means nothing to me without knowing, where, what previous years winners have run and who you beat. I may put together a list of the fastest marks on the course for comparison, but I think McGoey is high up there and apparently he looked really good. Ev Hatt could probably hook us up with some nice analysis.
5. S. Webb, Pennsbury
4. Ja. Hoey, Malvern Prep
3. G. Molino, South Williamsport
2. K. James, O'Hara
1. C. Abert, Easton
Well we have a new #1 after Abert rolled a course record and won by 30+ seconds over a very good Dom Hockenbury. He is the #1 star of the weekend and people are all in on the bandwagon. The hype is growing around him with talk of nationals and All American surfacing. I think the other guys in this top 5 (and some outside) can all challenge him. We still haven't seen James, Molino or Webb get a chance to get after it so it's hard to say anything for sure about how much they will challenge Abert this year until we do. Hoey is clearly a stud. But he won't be at states (dang it meet of champs) so really we won't see Hoey all out until possibly December. Not sure what MPs meet schedule looks like going forward but I hope he gets a shot at these other top 5 guys because I think he could beat them all if he has a good day. Abert took the reigns and is leading the charge, but I still see a wide open race for the top spot.
And really you couldn't ask for anything better. Or at least that's what I think ... And these ... These are my thoughts.
So here we go, this is the top 50 as of now. Not state predictions by any means, these rankings are meant to answer the following question: if somebody said "quick, pick a team of runners to run a 5k from PA high school! Race is Saturday!" And then they ran away without giving me any other information what is the order that I would pick people in.
Keep in mind, as usual, I'm doing this from a train so there will be natural grammar errors and I may miss a name or two but that's what the comments are for! So please keep me informed! Ask questions and stir up conversation.
No without any further suspense let's get down to the rankings. I'll pause every 10 or so to give some thoughts. Also I will list in parentheses the amount of spots a person has moved up the rankings so you can key in on some of the guys I feel or on the rise (or guys I just overlooked before). NR indicates this runner was not ranked in the top 101 last round of rankings.
50. C. Holm, Radnor
49. S. Seel, NA
48. K. Nelson, Conestoga (NR)
47. S. Smith, Towanda (+16)
46. R. Budnik, Grove City
45. J. Connors, Wilson
44. G. Mackey, Sedwick (NR)
43. Jo. Hoey, Malven (+4)
42. J. Susalla, Plum (+55)
41. K. Lapsansky, Easton (+25)
This set of 10 features some big movers from the last round of rankings. Susalla nearly broke 16 at RWB and had a victory at Gateway to start the year. He's off to a nice start in the WPIAL. Lapsansky is another guy on the rise after a nice PTXC performance. He could move up this list even more with consistent performances like that, Paul Short should be his next big chance to showcase. Griffin Mackey is a name to remember, just a sophomore emerging as one of the tops in his class. Same goes for little Hoey obviously as Josh looks very strong in the early going for a loaded MP squad. Nelson and Murray (51st this week) are two very nice pieces for Conestoga. Still no 5k yet from them, but strong enough performances to earn mentions this week at the very least. Conestoga is a great team and so they need to be represented here.
40. E. Diestelow, West Chester East
39. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
38. D. Stroh, Altoona
37. W. Loevner, Winchester
36. K. Gonoude, Salisbury
35. A. Benka, Grove City
34. A. Milligan, State College (+37)
33. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
32. B. Arita, CRN (+11)
31. B. Faust, Altoona
No Stroh or Loevner this weekend which was a little concerning, but I'm assuming they just had other commitments rather than injuries keeping them out of the line up. I'll be keeping an eye on it. Stroh has raced this weekend, finishing third to Milligan and Faust who are both also in this section. Milligan is the big mover here after winning his first race of the year. It appears he is ready to take that next step this season, but I will need to see a few more data points before I can rank him ahead of Faust (a returning state medalist who gets the nod here for that reason). At 34, Milligan is my #22 AAA guy, which means he would be a serious medal contender if he holds this position. Arita has an invite win and is the key guy in one of the best programs in the state. Given their history, I'd be surprised if Arita isn't a medalist at states.
30. J. Heinauer, North Hills (+58)
29. Z. Skolnevich, Quaker Valley (+9)
28. H. Sappey, DTW (NR)
27. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst
26. D. Green, James Buchanon (+30)
25. E. Graca, Fox Chapel (+40)
24. S. Hilverding, Waynesburg (+21)
23. J. VanKooten, Pittsburgh CC
22. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin (+48)
21. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep (+2)
Well folks we reached the "holy crap, I really underestimated that guy!" Part of the list! I mean look at those numbers! Sappey gets a big jump here, perhaps this a bit bold to jump him this high this quickly, but I like what he's been able to do so far leading the squad. DTW probably deserves more than 1 guy on the list, but I couldn't figure out who because they have such a great pack of guys. So Sappey goes high on the list to show my respect for the squad on the whole and my confidence in them looking forward. This section also includes Elias Graca, who I touched on in thought #6. He was the 2nd biggest star of the weekend (we will get to #1 later). Sean Hilverding is one of the most underrated AA guys in my eyes so I figured he deserved some love here for his big day. Everyone is talking Hockenbury and Kachman (and by everyone I mostly mean me) but Hilverding is in the mix as well. That race should be fun. Dan Green went out of state and killed it this weekend after giving Brehm a run for his money. I believe Green is also AA which means he belongs in those state title talks as well. AA may be more wide open than it originally appears. There are 5+ guys who can win right now (I feel the same way about AAA but we will get to that). Sean Weidner was about 10 spots lower on this list until news came about his win over Seiger. I chuckled a bit when I saw the comment on padontplay about it. Just remember commenters there is no reason to give a guy extra motivation. Weidner following nicely in the footsteps of Nissley and Groh and has now had 2 impressive performances instead of just the one at PTXC. That's big. One can be a fluke, but two is a trend.
20. Z. Seiger, Red Land
19. P. Power, Spring Ford (+1)
18. A. Knapp, Henderson
17. N. Dahl, GFS (+2)
16. H. Wharrey, NA (+12)
15. W. Kachman, Bedford (+2)
14. C. Comber, Horsham
13. D. Perretta, Beaver
12. S. Ritz, GA (+3)
11. A. Gebhardt (+1)
This group is a fun one. Mostly because I just can't figure out where to place half of them. I'm not sure what Perreta has got and Ritz looked very good in race 1, but it was only a 3k and he is a speed guy at heart. Paul Power very quietly had a nice split at 4xXC (or at least I think he did, who can tell with that results sheet?) and he was quietly very good in the post season last year. It's time someone is loud about him! Sorry got carried away there with the exclamation point. Hunter Wharrey was big for NA. If he continues to progress like this he might give McGoey a run for his money in a race or two which is great because I think McGoey is going to be top 5-10 this year at states.
For the record Comber's interview made me a fan. I love penntrack interviews, they are a nice way to see what guys are like. Good job penntrack. Comber just seemed down to earth, very respectful of his competition and teammates and knew he still had work to do to become one of the best this year. And how about Nick Dahl's interview? The kid came across like a super genius if I'm being honest (his mom did go to Yale so that should have been the first clue) and was another motivated and focused guy. Should my personal opinion of a runner help them in the rankings? Nope. But does it help if I'm secretly rooting for someone? Yeah probably on some subconscious level.
10. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
9. A. Marston, Conestoga (+5)
8. M. McGoey, North Allegheny (+1)
7. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
6. J. Brophy, CB East
I think this group 5 is all of almost identical ability at this point. Marston is the guy with his stock most on the rise after his 8:51 3k at Belmont. (Small side note, everyone wants to destroy RWB for being not a real 5k, but somebody runs 8:51 on trials in September and nobody once is like, hey was that a full 3k? Just saying). Regardless of the length, Marston dominated a field that included Ritz, Dahl and Knapp. As he moves up in distance he will only get better and as things get hillier he will only get better (killed the state course). Big potential here and people are taking notice. McGoey ran blazing fast this weekend even relative to course records and things like that. I'm about seeing who you beat and how you compare to previous years in XC, I could care less about a time by itself. 15:20s means nothing to me without knowing, where, what previous years winners have run and who you beat. I may put together a list of the fastest marks on the course for comparison, but I think McGoey is high up there and apparently he looked really good. Ev Hatt could probably hook us up with some nice analysis.
5. S. Webb, Pennsbury
4. Ja. Hoey, Malvern Prep
3. G. Molino, South Williamsport
2. K. James, O'Hara
1. C. Abert, Easton
Well we have a new #1 after Abert rolled a course record and won by 30+ seconds over a very good Dom Hockenbury. He is the #1 star of the weekend and people are all in on the bandwagon. The hype is growing around him with talk of nationals and All American surfacing. I think the other guys in this top 5 (and some outside) can all challenge him. We still haven't seen James, Molino or Webb get a chance to get after it so it's hard to say anything for sure about how much they will challenge Abert this year until we do. Hoey is clearly a stud. But he won't be at states (dang it meet of champs) so really we won't see Hoey all out until possibly December. Not sure what MPs meet schedule looks like going forward but I hope he gets a shot at these other top 5 guys because I think he could beat them all if he has a good day. Abert took the reigns and is leading the charge, but I still see a wide open race for the top spot.
And really you couldn't ask for anything better. Or at least that's what I think ... And these ... These are my thoughts.
Thought #6: 800m Runners Are People Too
Cross Country and 800m runners has always had an interesting relationship. For my 4 years of college I was making the transition back and forth between running the 4/8 on the track in the spring and running the 8k on the grass in the fall. There are certain connotations that come with being an 800 guy in a 2 milers sport. Most people either expect too much (your skills to directly translate) or too little (you will be a non factor during cross). They expect you have to go out over your head, have a lethal kick and do best on the flat super fast courses, leaving the hills for the strong, true cross runners. Some of this is true but most of it is just generalization and misconception.
If an 800m runner joins the cross country team, he sees the value in training through the fall and improving. If he's a track runner in general he's competitive as anything and wants to beat anyone he can. If he's a strong 800m runner, his strength could be valuable on a hilly course. Really cross country is very mental. If you have the mentality "I'm an 800 guy, this is just a waste of my time Til track" you won't do anything. But if you think, "look it's cross country season, I'm racing, I'm training: I have goals and I'm going to chase them" a talented 800m man will be a talented cross guy.
Elias Graca has thrust himself to the forefront of the "800m runners can run cross" debate with his huge 15:44 at RWB, finishing third and beating state medalists like Jeff VanKooten and Sean Hilverding. As Evan Hatton pointed out in an excellent stat, running sub 16 at this meet instantly propels you into top 25 at states territory. Combine that with the fact that it was a massive PR and his first real performance as the teams #1 runner and the mark looks even more impressive.
But there are other numbers working against Graca. He's one of the favorites this spring at both WPIALs and states to win the 800m. However, the state champ in the 800 has never finished in the top 25 at states the fall before they won their title. In fact, out of the last 7 800m champions to run at the state meet in XC, the average finish was 71st. Compare that stat to the mile champs (average place of 28) and 2 mile champs (average place of 7) and the odds looked stacked against an 800 specialist.
Last spring just two of the 8 state medalists in the 800m were also cross country medalists (Brehm and Cather). In the past 8 seasons there are 11 members of this group, led by Wade Endress, who did it three times. So clearly 800m guys can pull this off. It's just easier if your a 2 miler. The top 10 of the state 3200m this fall were state medalists in cross (with 2 state champs, a footlocker finalist and 4 of the first 5 to cross the like in Hershey).
The other problem Graca faces is that he isn't really a 8/16 guy like Endress, Kunzweiler, Brehm and Cather. Of the 11 members of the 800 and XC state medalist club the slowest 1600 PR of the bunch is 4:24 (Zack Montijo) and 9 of the 11 guys have run under 4:17.
Graca is a 4/8 type at heart, he's never run the 16 or mile at a major invite (at least according to penntrack). That makes him more of a Lefebure, Cho, Wiseman type guy. The highest finish out of those three at states is Cho's 197.
But Graca is still growing. He went from a 2 flat guy to a 1:53 guy last spring, dropping a ton of time every weekend with his big break through coming at states in track. This guy is only now hitting his stride. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't drop a massive 16 PR this spring, it's really the only event he hasn't had a massive PR in at this point thanks to his recent 5k.
Besides he can have a great career without a really fast mile like Andy Flynn or Brandon Krysal who were top 50 in XC and were district champ talents in the 800. Guys like Nick Smart and Andrew Stone had breakthroughs in cross the season after they began to breakthrough in track. Someone like Jim Belfatto was a 4/8 guy for his early years before he stepped up to fill a hole in the XC squad. Then he briefly became the school record holder in the 2 mile. Mallon finished 26th and 29th at states in XC so it's not like he was a chump out there.
Graca is the big name for a group that includes Zach Brehm, Dom Perretta, Alek Sauer, Dylan Eddinger, Andrew Koryak, Andy Stewart and more who are trying to break through that "track guy" stigma with a big XC season. They will model their year after guys like Magaha (district title, 6th place), Willig (9th, 2nd at districts), and Endress (2nd at states, district titles, 3 state medals) who proved the state's best 800m men of all time can also be XC stars.
Brehm has already gotten his medal, now he is chasing state and district gold. Perretta too holds two state titles, but there are still many people that doubt his XC ability. Sauer was sub 16 last year, but needs to prove himself on Hershey's hills if Pennsbury is going to be back in the top 10 at states. Koryak had a strong first race at RWB and will look to build on that towards a top 10 state finish in A. Eddinger and Stewart have never made a state championship in cross, but are coming off thrilling ends to their track seasons. Both guys are in excellent training programs to develop their talents.
All of these guys have something to prove this year. And it was Elias Graca who made the first big statement of the season, emphatically saying, "Hey, it's cross country season and I'm gonna kill it just like I did in track."
As the Artic Monekys album title says, "Whatever You Think I Am, I'm Not".
If an 800m runner joins the cross country team, he sees the value in training through the fall and improving. If he's a track runner in general he's competitive as anything and wants to beat anyone he can. If he's a strong 800m runner, his strength could be valuable on a hilly course. Really cross country is very mental. If you have the mentality "I'm an 800 guy, this is just a waste of my time Til track" you won't do anything. But if you think, "look it's cross country season, I'm racing, I'm training: I have goals and I'm going to chase them" a talented 800m man will be a talented cross guy.
Elias Graca has thrust himself to the forefront of the "800m runners can run cross" debate with his huge 15:44 at RWB, finishing third and beating state medalists like Jeff VanKooten and Sean Hilverding. As Evan Hatton pointed out in an excellent stat, running sub 16 at this meet instantly propels you into top 25 at states territory. Combine that with the fact that it was a massive PR and his first real performance as the teams #1 runner and the mark looks even more impressive.
But there are other numbers working against Graca. He's one of the favorites this spring at both WPIALs and states to win the 800m. However, the state champ in the 800 has never finished in the top 25 at states the fall before they won their title. In fact, out of the last 7 800m champions to run at the state meet in XC, the average finish was 71st. Compare that stat to the mile champs (average place of 28) and 2 mile champs (average place of 7) and the odds looked stacked against an 800 specialist.
Last spring just two of the 8 state medalists in the 800m were also cross country medalists (Brehm and Cather). In the past 8 seasons there are 11 members of this group, led by Wade Endress, who did it three times. So clearly 800m guys can pull this off. It's just easier if your a 2 miler. The top 10 of the state 3200m this fall were state medalists in cross (with 2 state champs, a footlocker finalist and 4 of the first 5 to cross the like in Hershey).
The other problem Graca faces is that he isn't really a 8/16 guy like Endress, Kunzweiler, Brehm and Cather. Of the 11 members of the 800 and XC state medalist club the slowest 1600 PR of the bunch is 4:24 (Zack Montijo) and 9 of the 11 guys have run under 4:17.
Graca is a 4/8 type at heart, he's never run the 16 or mile at a major invite (at least according to penntrack). That makes him more of a Lefebure, Cho, Wiseman type guy. The highest finish out of those three at states is Cho's 197.
But Graca is still growing. He went from a 2 flat guy to a 1:53 guy last spring, dropping a ton of time every weekend with his big break through coming at states in track. This guy is only now hitting his stride. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't drop a massive 16 PR this spring, it's really the only event he hasn't had a massive PR in at this point thanks to his recent 5k.
Besides he can have a great career without a really fast mile like Andy Flynn or Brandon Krysal who were top 50 in XC and were district champ talents in the 800. Guys like Nick Smart and Andrew Stone had breakthroughs in cross the season after they began to breakthrough in track. Someone like Jim Belfatto was a 4/8 guy for his early years before he stepped up to fill a hole in the XC squad. Then he briefly became the school record holder in the 2 mile. Mallon finished 26th and 29th at states in XC so it's not like he was a chump out there.
Graca is the big name for a group that includes Zach Brehm, Dom Perretta, Alek Sauer, Dylan Eddinger, Andrew Koryak, Andy Stewart and more who are trying to break through that "track guy" stigma with a big XC season. They will model their year after guys like Magaha (district title, 6th place), Willig (9th, 2nd at districts), and Endress (2nd at states, district titles, 3 state medals) who proved the state's best 800m men of all time can also be XC stars.
Brehm has already gotten his medal, now he is chasing state and district gold. Perretta too holds two state titles, but there are still many people that doubt his XC ability. Sauer was sub 16 last year, but needs to prove himself on Hershey's hills if Pennsbury is going to be back in the top 10 at states. Koryak had a strong first race at RWB and will look to build on that towards a top 10 state finish in A. Eddinger and Stewart have never made a state championship in cross, but are coming off thrilling ends to their track seasons. Both guys are in excellent training programs to develop their talents.
All of these guys have something to prove this year. And it was Elias Graca who made the first big statement of the season, emphatically saying, "Hey, it's cross country season and I'm gonna kill it just like I did in track."
As the Artic Monekys album title says, "Whatever You Think I Am, I'm Not".
Thought #5: Assessing the D1 Power Struggle
District One will always be the most competitive district. Every year there are teams that miss out on experiencing the big dance that have real talent.
This year will probably follow that same trend. Already we are seeing some intriguing teams showcasing some early ability. Thus far there are probably something like 3 different groups of squads right now in D1: the favorites, the programs, and the wrecking balls.
First is the favorites. Conestoga is my #1 team in the district right now. That could change when they actually run a 5k of course, but right now I see an experienced squad with an excellent front runner and 3 guys behind him who can challenge 16 minutes this year (if things get out hard enough, no Tony Russell to help drag everyone to fast times). As I discussed previously, this is a great team with title aspirations.
You also have DT West, who can't be overlooked in the district title talks. The crazy thing about DT West is I know they are good, but I can't really point to one or two runners and say those are the guys who are carrying this team.
Allow me to elaborate. I know West is good. You know why? Because their first two meets they went toe to toe with two of the best three teams in the state and held their own. But I really can't project their top 5 or even their top 3 into the future. Their top guys from last year, their top guys from Oakburne and their top guys from Abington all rotated around. Sappey is the guy right now, he looks very strong early, but I see a pack of guys filled with potential breakout stars to give him chase.
They have Bullock, Oneill, Barton, Barton and Ryherd already each having nice moments. Their potential #1 by seasons end isn't even healthy yet in Alansky. Not sure how long he is out for but if he can get in a month or two of training he can help contribute to this pack.
They need develop some clear front runners to match up well with teams like NA and Conestoga and even Easton who have serious low stick potential, but With a variety of options for leaders on this team, DT West is the definition of a wildcard, but at the very least has to be considered a favorite to make states.
Then you have the programs. You know who we are talking about here: CRN and Henderson. At this point, keep in mind North returns 5 of 7 from a team that was 5th at states (almost 4th). They do lose their big time low stick in Ross Wilson, and that definitely hurts, but they return plenty of experience and they will give everybody a run for their money at seasons end you have to imagine. I will say this, North has not grabbed a district title in roughly a decade, but they also have not missed states while I have been following the sport (almost a decade).
As for Henderson, they have a bigger hill to climb. They lose 6 of 7 from the back to back champs, including state record holder Tony Russell. They have won a slew of district titles in the last 15 years and added in some state titles to boot, but they are, given what they return, more of a question mark than North. They haven't missed states since 2007 (they had the district champ Chris Aldrich and Will Kellar, a future state champ, the rest wasn't quite ready yet) so it would be odd to see them missing, but you never know in District One.
Then you have the wrecking balls. Why are they wrecking balls? Because they can come flying in and mess everything up when things come together at Lehigh at the end of October. The big name we haven't talked about yet is Pennsbury. They return a stud in Sam Webb and a sub 16 man in Alek Sauer. Plus Pennsbury returns 6 of 7 from the 10th place team in the state. Here is the main obstacle they face: filling the void left by Liam OConnell's graduation. There top three was their biggest strength a year ago, so somebody from last years youngsters has to step into those shoes. They got a nice win at Belmont this past weekend and have plenty to build off looking ahead. I see Pennsbury as that borderline type team. If you are better than them you are probably going to states. If not, then you are probably staying home.
Both Central Bucks teams will be interesting to watch this year. They both traded wins already this year at the first two invites of the season, leaving a few people scratching our heads at which squad is best. CB East has the big time front runner and really they haven't been in a deep enough meet to properly utilize him yet. Districts is that kind of meet. West is growing quickly behind Rock Fortna's emergence as a front runner. If they can tighten up their pack, they will be dangerous as well. The Central Bucks schools are in a loaded league and will face great competition on an almost biweekly basis. You have Horsham and Casey Comber (coming off a big win over Coatesville) who are developing as a deep sleeper and you have the always dangerous North Penn who could develop the next state champ at any moment. In previous years they have pulled Brad Miles and Sam Bernitt from soccer team to 10th at states. You just never know with a school that size. And Tung is a nice front runner to help lead the team.
The Chesmont always has a slew of talented teams on the line at districts. This year, however, we probably will be seeing a change from the norm in the league. Rustin looks like they are a team on the rise behind Carmody, Voigt and young Coates. They are developing a nice pack of under the radar guys. Coatesville has a solid team as well and is looking to return to their former state championship glory.
The biggest wrecking ball might be Bensalem. They are in a league with CRN and Pennsbury (probably #3 and #4 in the district right now on paper) and finished in that dreaded 6th spot last year at districts. When they lost Kyle Francis, the multi state champ and three time individual state qualifier, I thought that would really hurt their stock, but they started off the season with a nice win over CRN and a great showing from Alex Ramirez who beat out a couple really strong runners from CR South in Hanna and MaGuire. They have Taji Mays (16:20s last year) and Rahi Shah returning from last years top 5 in addition to Ramirez. Throw in Ageel Bacchus who had a strong first race of the season and not only do I have no chance of spelling anyone's name right on this team, but they have a dangerous group of 5 guys in a good system with a little bit of extra fire after missing states by just 12 points last year. I'll be keeping my eye on this unit.
This year will probably follow that same trend. Already we are seeing some intriguing teams showcasing some early ability. Thus far there are probably something like 3 different groups of squads right now in D1: the favorites, the programs, and the wrecking balls.
First is the favorites. Conestoga is my #1 team in the district right now. That could change when they actually run a 5k of course, but right now I see an experienced squad with an excellent front runner and 3 guys behind him who can challenge 16 minutes this year (if things get out hard enough, no Tony Russell to help drag everyone to fast times). As I discussed previously, this is a great team with title aspirations.
You also have DT West, who can't be overlooked in the district title talks. The crazy thing about DT West is I know they are good, but I can't really point to one or two runners and say those are the guys who are carrying this team.
Allow me to elaborate. I know West is good. You know why? Because their first two meets they went toe to toe with two of the best three teams in the state and held their own. But I really can't project their top 5 or even their top 3 into the future. Their top guys from last year, their top guys from Oakburne and their top guys from Abington all rotated around. Sappey is the guy right now, he looks very strong early, but I see a pack of guys filled with potential breakout stars to give him chase.
They have Bullock, Oneill, Barton, Barton and Ryherd already each having nice moments. Their potential #1 by seasons end isn't even healthy yet in Alansky. Not sure how long he is out for but if he can get in a month or two of training he can help contribute to this pack.
They need develop some clear front runners to match up well with teams like NA and Conestoga and even Easton who have serious low stick potential, but With a variety of options for leaders on this team, DT West is the definition of a wildcard, but at the very least has to be considered a favorite to make states.
Then you have the programs. You know who we are talking about here: CRN and Henderson. At this point, keep in mind North returns 5 of 7 from a team that was 5th at states (almost 4th). They do lose their big time low stick in Ross Wilson, and that definitely hurts, but they return plenty of experience and they will give everybody a run for their money at seasons end you have to imagine. I will say this, North has not grabbed a district title in roughly a decade, but they also have not missed states while I have been following the sport (almost a decade).
As for Henderson, they have a bigger hill to climb. They lose 6 of 7 from the back to back champs, including state record holder Tony Russell. They have won a slew of district titles in the last 15 years and added in some state titles to boot, but they are, given what they return, more of a question mark than North. They haven't missed states since 2007 (they had the district champ Chris Aldrich and Will Kellar, a future state champ, the rest wasn't quite ready yet) so it would be odd to see them missing, but you never know in District One.
Then you have the wrecking balls. Why are they wrecking balls? Because they can come flying in and mess everything up when things come together at Lehigh at the end of October. The big name we haven't talked about yet is Pennsbury. They return a stud in Sam Webb and a sub 16 man in Alek Sauer. Plus Pennsbury returns 6 of 7 from the 10th place team in the state. Here is the main obstacle they face: filling the void left by Liam OConnell's graduation. There top three was their biggest strength a year ago, so somebody from last years youngsters has to step into those shoes. They got a nice win at Belmont this past weekend and have plenty to build off looking ahead. I see Pennsbury as that borderline type team. If you are better than them you are probably going to states. If not, then you are probably staying home.
Both Central Bucks teams will be interesting to watch this year. They both traded wins already this year at the first two invites of the season, leaving a few people scratching our heads at which squad is best. CB East has the big time front runner and really they haven't been in a deep enough meet to properly utilize him yet. Districts is that kind of meet. West is growing quickly behind Rock Fortna's emergence as a front runner. If they can tighten up their pack, they will be dangerous as well. The Central Bucks schools are in a loaded league and will face great competition on an almost biweekly basis. You have Horsham and Casey Comber (coming off a big win over Coatesville) who are developing as a deep sleeper and you have the always dangerous North Penn who could develop the next state champ at any moment. In previous years they have pulled Brad Miles and Sam Bernitt from soccer team to 10th at states. You just never know with a school that size. And Tung is a nice front runner to help lead the team.
The Chesmont always has a slew of talented teams on the line at districts. This year, however, we probably will be seeing a change from the norm in the league. Rustin looks like they are a team on the rise behind Carmody, Voigt and young Coates. They are developing a nice pack of under the radar guys. Coatesville has a solid team as well and is looking to return to their former state championship glory.
The biggest wrecking ball might be Bensalem. They are in a league with CRN and Pennsbury (probably #3 and #4 in the district right now on paper) and finished in that dreaded 6th spot last year at districts. When they lost Kyle Francis, the multi state champ and three time individual state qualifier, I thought that would really hurt their stock, but they started off the season with a nice win over CRN and a great showing from Alex Ramirez who beat out a couple really strong runners from CR South in Hanna and MaGuire. They have Taji Mays (16:20s last year) and Rahi Shah returning from last years top 5 in addition to Ramirez. Throw in Ageel Bacchus who had a strong first race of the season and not only do I have no chance of spelling anyone's name right on this team, but they have a dangerous group of 5 guys in a good system with a little bit of extra fire after missing states by just 12 points last year. I'll be keeping my eye on this unit.
Thought #4: Seriously, is this the Year for D11?
So just a reminder that there are a variety of posts about this weekends action both before and after this post so flip around, pull up a chair and enjoy the read.
What a big weekend for D11. The Easton boys made a BIG statement at PTXC, beating all the top D3 teams (with the exception of Carlisle) by a convincing margin. According to other buzz, Easton also bested Freedom in a dual meet already this year.
Here's the thing, with Kev Lapsansky continued emergence, Easton might have the best 2 runners in the entire district. In a dual meet when you take 1-2, that's huge. Throw in the fact that their 3-4-5 match up well with even the tight pack of CV and this team is dangerous. They look like the best team from D11 this decade. Wow.
But let's face it, what makes this team so dangerous is Colin Abert. Abert destroyed a pretty solid field, including Dom Hockenbury, a guy who is the favorite for AA state champ and a potential footlocker finalist. The Abert we saw in his first race is a guy who looks like a state champ: He consistently outperforms his track times on the trails, he's been the best XC man in his class for 2 years.
Put a 1 at the front of your team scoring every week and your basically racing 4 vs 5 every week. That's big.
Abert looks like a man on a mission this year. Keep in mind, last year Abert was the only top 5 finisher at AAA states to not make it to a national meet. That hunger is carrying over to the early part of 2014.
Now it's still early, only September, and Easton usually has a pretty extensive summer program (I think lots of their guys do summer track?) but the Easton boys look poised for an historic season.
But there's more than just Easton. I'm still a believer that Freedom can mix it up for a top 10-12 finish at states and I think they will fight well against Easton at the bigger meets where they hopefully can use a tighter spread to do damage. The two teams may push each other to a new, exciting level.
Another team on the rise is Parkland, who was an under the radar team at PTXC (they finished 7th ahead of Altoona and Cedar Crest and within striking distance of LD). Here's a name to remember: Hailemichael Geiger. He's a sophomore from Parkland who was 17th at PTXC in his first big race of his young career. Parkland is an excellent program (they consistently make states out of D11 and have churned out top medalists like Stepp and Gillette). They won't just lay down and let Easton and Freedom step over them to states. Geiger is going to have to be the guy to lead them, and I think he can grow a lot over the course of this season. I don't expect Parkland to make it to states in this loaded year, but that doesn't mean they won't be one of the best teams to stay at home that weekend.
Lastly, watch for Gabe Lamm of Whitehall. He was running with Lapsansky in track and XC last year and bested Geiger in a dual meet already this season. He probably would have been somewhere in the 10-15 range at PTXC (although it's very hard to say for sure). He's a strong runner who we should keep on the radar.
I mentioned it before, but after the weekends action I feel I should reiterate the question: is this the ear for D11?
Thought #3: Who Is the Best Team in the State?
So the biggest surprise for me early this season, how great Conestoga looks in the early going. Andrew Marston looks phenomenal early on, admittedly in a few short races, but really short races should put him at a disadvantage relative to a 5k because of his great strength. With Marston leading the way as a top 5 guy Conestoga has their low stick in place early. Then they just need to fill in the pieces.
Can Conestoga beat NA? I'm still a believer that NA will win when it's all said and done, but as of right now I think Conestoga looks better. Surprisingly (to me anyway) Conestoga looks deeper than NA. The absence of Seamus Love on the roster this year makes NA look a little bit more human. With Cooper (top 50 last year at states) currently running as Conestoga's 4, that's a great front group. Cruickshank has really been racing varsity this year, first in JV at Oakburne no show at GFS 3k, but when he gets in the mix that could be the valuable 5th that Stoga needs.
The key at this point appears to be, how well can Nelson and Murray do? For Stoga to realistically have a chance at the title, they need a couple guys knocking on the doors of medal contention behind the big gun in Marston. Nelson and Murray look great early, but its going to be really tough to get up to medal contention. They will be following Gunnar Sjoreen's lead, as he was just outside the medals in 2013.
But let's get it straight, NA is still a great team. Matt McGoey got off to a nice start and got his first major victory. He has the potential to be with Marston at states and could end up beating him. D7 always has guys in the top 7-10 at states, and McGoey appears to be the the best guy from the WPIAL at this point.
The big early season development for North A is Hunter Wharrey, who finished second behind McGoey at meet 1 of the year. If Wharrey has taken the next step this year and is now a top 10-15 guy in the state, the Tigers have the best 1-2 punch in the PIAA and would be in the conversation with Hoey and McDevitt for best in the state. And Seel of course is a really solid #3.
NA is a big school with a great history and they usually have a ton of depth. I believe they can round out their top 5 nicely over the course of the season. However, Conestoga has to be feeling good about their chances. The state course is a very difficult one, and the boys from Stoga had their best day their last year. You could argue that's not true for North Allegheny.
It's still way too early to say anything for sure or for me to pick a winner, but it's a very interesting and exciting conversation to talk about the team title race, and I don't know if we were thinking that a couple months ago. I know I wasn't.
For the record, the best team in the state right now is Malvern Prep. Here's the thing about Prep, they not only have the best guys, they also have the opportunity to peak those guys at regionals without a real state meet getting in the way. Yes independent leagues matters and they want to win, but the goal is nationals. It has to be. Conestoga and NA have the goal of winning states. In my opinion that has to be the goal for those schools.
But I'm not trying to make excuses, Malvern is a fantastic team. The Hoey bros are for real. Josh is probably the best frosh the state has seen since McNally. That's high praise. McDevitt is looking like a very potent #2 and Colin Wills is somebody to sleep on, he's going to continue to improve as just a junior with excellent mile credentials. He has a very similar resume to someone like Sean Weidner (a guy who is probably beginning a break out XC year) so we may see the break out from Wills by season end. Remember these guys aren't peaking until basically December. They've got almost 3 months to find themselves, get in shape and make it to nats.
Can Conestoga beat NA? I'm still a believer that NA will win when it's all said and done, but as of right now I think Conestoga looks better. Surprisingly (to me anyway) Conestoga looks deeper than NA. The absence of Seamus Love on the roster this year makes NA look a little bit more human. With Cooper (top 50 last year at states) currently running as Conestoga's 4, that's a great front group. Cruickshank has really been racing varsity this year, first in JV at Oakburne no show at GFS 3k, but when he gets in the mix that could be the valuable 5th that Stoga needs.
The key at this point appears to be, how well can Nelson and Murray do? For Stoga to realistically have a chance at the title, they need a couple guys knocking on the doors of medal contention behind the big gun in Marston. Nelson and Murray look great early, but its going to be really tough to get up to medal contention. They will be following Gunnar Sjoreen's lead, as he was just outside the medals in 2013.
But let's get it straight, NA is still a great team. Matt McGoey got off to a nice start and got his first major victory. He has the potential to be with Marston at states and could end up beating him. D7 always has guys in the top 7-10 at states, and McGoey appears to be the the best guy from the WPIAL at this point.
The big early season development for North A is Hunter Wharrey, who finished second behind McGoey at meet 1 of the year. If Wharrey has taken the next step this year and is now a top 10-15 guy in the state, the Tigers have the best 1-2 punch in the PIAA and would be in the conversation with Hoey and McDevitt for best in the state. And Seel of course is a really solid #3.
NA is a big school with a great history and they usually have a ton of depth. I believe they can round out their top 5 nicely over the course of the season. However, Conestoga has to be feeling good about their chances. The state course is a very difficult one, and the boys from Stoga had their best day their last year. You could argue that's not true for North Allegheny.
It's still way too early to say anything for sure or for me to pick a winner, but it's a very interesting and exciting conversation to talk about the team title race, and I don't know if we were thinking that a couple months ago. I know I wasn't.
For the record, the best team in the state right now is Malvern Prep. Here's the thing about Prep, they not only have the best guys, they also have the opportunity to peak those guys at regionals without a real state meet getting in the way. Yes independent leagues matters and they want to win, but the goal is nationals. It has to be. Conestoga and NA have the goal of winning states. In my opinion that has to be the goal for those schools.
But I'm not trying to make excuses, Malvern is a fantastic team. The Hoey bros are for real. Josh is probably the best frosh the state has seen since McNally. That's high praise. McDevitt is looking like a very potent #2 and Colin Wills is somebody to sleep on, he's going to continue to improve as just a junior with excellent mile credentials. He has a very similar resume to someone like Sean Weidner (a guy who is probably beginning a break out XC year) so we may see the break out from Wills by season end. Remember these guys aren't peaking until basically December. They've got almost 3 months to find themselves, get in shape and make it to nats.
Thought #2: The Most Necessary Of My Rants
I will be making a variety of posts throughout the weekend and early next week recapping some thoughts I've had. You can see thought #1 on district 3 below. In my upcoming thoughts we will talk about the favorites for state champs, the district one playoff picture, rank the runners in the state and more. This thought #2 for me this week.
Look, I'm just gonna say it. The PCL NEEDS two teams at states. They NEED them. We are headed for another LaSalle v Ohara battle where only one squad can, technically make it to states. And the way St Joes Prep's top guys are running, there is not going to be any 5 individual magic this year.
Let's look at the PCLs resume since they first jumped in the PIAA for the 2008 season. They have had a top 3 team in the state every year. Only D1 can boast the same stat over the same period. They have had one squad make it to nationals and finish 5th, the best finish besides Coatesville. They have had 11 top 10 teams over those 6 years out of their 12 teams that qualified for states in that period.
And oh yeah, not only did LaSalle qualify for states with 5 individuals, but so did Ohara in 2009! I had no idea until I started researching this post. Now it was a tad easier (10 individuals and 2 teams went from d12 before the expansion, the perfect number in my eyes) but it's still amazing. 2 teams have done the improbable from the PCL.
They are either the 2nd or 3rd best district since 2009 and there is really no debating it. 9 top 8 teams, 8 top 7 teams, 6 top 5 teams, 5 top 3 and 2 runner ups. If they had won those coin flips with North Penn and Henderson, they would be right in the mix for best district, not deepest, but certainly best.
And we haven't even factored in AA squads like Bonner who have been strong behind runners like Will McDermott. The league has had top 50 guys like Muldoon and Flanagan from Wood, O Sullivan from Prep, Kehl from Father Judge.
The key to the PCL really centers around the two alpha dogs: LaSalle and Ohara. In recent years Ohara has grown into one of the best programs in the state. It's them Henderson and NA right now, and this year could make or break the Ohara legacy. They were just 4 points behind NA last year if you remember.
Ohara has been able to achieve greatness by maximizing performance at the state meet. People have a misunderstanding about Ohara peaking too early in the season, but this is wrong. Look back at the last few years. It started with a huge run by Joe Sachetti, just missing the medals in 2008. In 2010 Chris Garrity finished in the medals at states and beat Tom Trainer once during championship season. Garrity never broke 4:20 or 9:30 in high school on the track but was mixing it up in XC. That says a lot about their training.
Plus they have maximized the XC credentials of guys like Mike Billota, Ernie Pitone and Nick Smart who all finished in the top 12 at states in their best cross country races of their career. At the moment that matters most. That's not even counting top 5 guys in James and Savage. Sachetti, Garrity, Billotta, Pitone, Savage, James, Smart and Belfatto have all been top 27 since 2008. That's 8 different guys. Henderson has Kellar, Andrews, Stecklair, Russell, Barchet, Rimkis, Knapp. That's 7. NA has Gil, Morgan, Steiner, Appman, Zemet, Luoco, McGoey. That's 7.
Meanwhile LaSalle has done it with pack running. They have had fire power (Coyle and Stone both were great front runners, Trainer as well) but they are best know for their spreads. In 2008 they used a 24 second spread to stun NA (a team that made nationals that year and was 12th) for second. In 2009 they had a 15 second spread! That landed them 3rd despite having 0 state medalists. I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet that's the least amount of points ever scored by a team that didn't have a state medalist. NA flipped the script on them that year taking 2nd.
It's a shame this year we probably won't get to see both the fire power of Ohara and the pack running of LaSalle on the big stage. LaSalle this weekend showcased their potential big time: defeating GFS and Henderson in a 3k race at Belmont. It was only a 3k but LaSalle had a sickening 9 second spread! Patrick Grant led the team with an 8th place finish, ahead of some solid names. This LaSalle team is dangerous, especially if their pack can beat out Ohara.
As for Ohara, we still haven't seen them unleash the big guns at an invite this year. We know Kevin James is a front runner, but what can they build around him? Can they continue to produce top 27 guys in a "rebuilding year". I will tell you one think, Ohara doesn't think they are rebuilding. They think they are competing for a state title. Rob Morro is poised early to be the #2 but Ryan James and Drew Pastore were quality state runners for this team a year ago as well.
Overall, the PCL is a fantastic league to see quality running. It's just a shame it won't be properly represented at the state meet.
Look, I'm just gonna say it. The PCL NEEDS two teams at states. They NEED them. We are headed for another LaSalle v Ohara battle where only one squad can, technically make it to states. And the way St Joes Prep's top guys are running, there is not going to be any 5 individual magic this year.
Let's look at the PCLs resume since they first jumped in the PIAA for the 2008 season. They have had a top 3 team in the state every year. Only D1 can boast the same stat over the same period. They have had one squad make it to nationals and finish 5th, the best finish besides Coatesville. They have had 11 top 10 teams over those 6 years out of their 12 teams that qualified for states in that period.
And oh yeah, not only did LaSalle qualify for states with 5 individuals, but so did Ohara in 2009! I had no idea until I started researching this post. Now it was a tad easier (10 individuals and 2 teams went from d12 before the expansion, the perfect number in my eyes) but it's still amazing. 2 teams have done the improbable from the PCL.
They are either the 2nd or 3rd best district since 2009 and there is really no debating it. 9 top 8 teams, 8 top 7 teams, 6 top 5 teams, 5 top 3 and 2 runner ups. If they had won those coin flips with North Penn and Henderson, they would be right in the mix for best district, not deepest, but certainly best.
And we haven't even factored in AA squads like Bonner who have been strong behind runners like Will McDermott. The league has had top 50 guys like Muldoon and Flanagan from Wood, O Sullivan from Prep, Kehl from Father Judge.
The key to the PCL really centers around the two alpha dogs: LaSalle and Ohara. In recent years Ohara has grown into one of the best programs in the state. It's them Henderson and NA right now, and this year could make or break the Ohara legacy. They were just 4 points behind NA last year if you remember.
Ohara has been able to achieve greatness by maximizing performance at the state meet. People have a misunderstanding about Ohara peaking too early in the season, but this is wrong. Look back at the last few years. It started with a huge run by Joe Sachetti, just missing the medals in 2008. In 2010 Chris Garrity finished in the medals at states and beat Tom Trainer once during championship season. Garrity never broke 4:20 or 9:30 in high school on the track but was mixing it up in XC. That says a lot about their training.
Plus they have maximized the XC credentials of guys like Mike Billota, Ernie Pitone and Nick Smart who all finished in the top 12 at states in their best cross country races of their career. At the moment that matters most. That's not even counting top 5 guys in James and Savage. Sachetti, Garrity, Billotta, Pitone, Savage, James, Smart and Belfatto have all been top 27 since 2008. That's 8 different guys. Henderson has Kellar, Andrews, Stecklair, Russell, Barchet, Rimkis, Knapp. That's 7. NA has Gil, Morgan, Steiner, Appman, Zemet, Luoco, McGoey. That's 7.
Meanwhile LaSalle has done it with pack running. They have had fire power (Coyle and Stone both were great front runners, Trainer as well) but they are best know for their spreads. In 2008 they used a 24 second spread to stun NA (a team that made nationals that year and was 12th) for second. In 2009 they had a 15 second spread! That landed them 3rd despite having 0 state medalists. I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet that's the least amount of points ever scored by a team that didn't have a state medalist. NA flipped the script on them that year taking 2nd.
It's a shame this year we probably won't get to see both the fire power of Ohara and the pack running of LaSalle on the big stage. LaSalle this weekend showcased their potential big time: defeating GFS and Henderson in a 3k race at Belmont. It was only a 3k but LaSalle had a sickening 9 second spread! Patrick Grant led the team with an 8th place finish, ahead of some solid names. This LaSalle team is dangerous, especially if their pack can beat out Ohara.
As for Ohara, we still haven't seen them unleash the big guns at an invite this year. We know Kevin James is a front runner, but what can they build around him? Can they continue to produce top 27 guys in a "rebuilding year". I will tell you one think, Ohara doesn't think they are rebuilding. They think they are competing for a state title. Rob Morro is poised early to be the #2 but Ryan James and Drew Pastore were quality state runners for this team a year ago as well.
Overall, the PCL is a fantastic league to see quality running. It's just a shame it won't be properly represented at the state meet.
Top 7 Thoughts: Three is a Crowd
So without some key results like CB East and Red White and Blue, I can't quite do the rankings I was hoping I do just yet. So later in the week we will have a variety of posts that include a ranking. Gotta decide how big to make the list (50, 101, other?). Let me know in the comment section below what you think.
In the mean time let's talk some weekend action. This is thought one of my 7 thoughts of the weekend.
#1 The D3 race is heating up.
Last year the boys from Carlisle finished 6th at the state championships, the highest finish by a district 3 team at states since 2005 (Craig Millers Manheim Township squad was 2nd). Carlisle returns three key guys from last years squad: DeAngelo, Wisner and Zach Brehm, giving them a potent top 3. They ran strong in the first meet of the year at Chambersburg behind this top 3, but still need to establish a bit more of a 4-5 punch going forward.
The boys from Cumberland Valley took a strong step forward at PTXC with a third place finish (2nd PA). CV has been a consistently strong team and had a beautiful stretch of pack running behind a top 4 that was 7-16-18-24 (team scoring). Two of those top 4, Josh Higgins and Yahya Soliman, are just sophomores. Senior Quinn Wasko took a big step forward with a 7th place overall finish, jumping some men ahead of him.
Red Land was just behind CV, riding key performances from Zach Seiger (3rd) and Drew Wilkinson (11th). They return their entire top 7 from districts last year. Seiger is stepping in to a lead role with authority while Wilkinson is improving as well. Hershey also returns their entire district squad from a year ago, including Aiden Demko, a solid runner for the past 2 years, and Will Sponaugle, an emerging miler with excellent potential. Both teams have been under the radar dramatically out in the middle of the state.
Also in contention is a Lower Dauphin team that, in case you forgot, is the defending champs. Sean Weidner stepped into a leading role with a 4th place finish at PTXC. Running with him is an emerging pair of sophomores in Colton Cassell (19th) and Kyle Shea (21st). Dauphin lost some key seniors a year ago which means it may take some time for the next generation to assert itself, but there is a certain element of pride that comes with being the defending champs. And then there is Twin Valley, who wasn't on the starting line at PTXC, but did sweep the first 4 spots and the team title in their opener.
Throw in Hempfield (solid at Oakburne returns top 4 and 6 of 7 from last years squad), Governor Mifflin (returns their top 5 from last year led by the emerging Luckanitz) and other teams consistetly at the top (Central Dauphin, Cedar Crest) and you have a mad house rush for the 4 state spots.
Wow. This is going to be a thrilling season, I'm not sure anyone is safely through, although if I had to pick one squad to find a way it would be the boys of Cumberland Valley. Since 2006, not only has CV made states every year, they have been one of the top 2 squads from D3 every single year, something that no team from D1 can boast. They were also the #1 team from D3 in 5 different seasons, despite only winning 1 district championship during that period (2012, where they had their highest finish over that span with an 8th place finish).
What that tells me is A) Cumby is a great program with an excellent chance of being tops in the district again and B) being d3 champ is not the priority for this squad. As I've chronicled for this blog before, there a slew of disadvantages to running the state course back to back weeks and the results show D3 has suffered. Statistically speaking it's better to be somewhere around 8th at districts as an individual than to win if you want to do well at states. That's no different for d3 teams.
Since 2007 when the course changes really took effect, the team champ and districts has been the top team at states just twice over the 7 year period. Over the same window the district champ has been the 5th best team at states twice as well.
So all these teams face a natural trade off: states or districts? Where do we want to excel?
But the question is, can any of these teams afford to hold back at states considering the depth of the team battle?
When I evaluate the potential going forward, I look at a couple factors (it's still very early). The age of the squad: a young squad has more room to grow but less experience at the top level. They need the right mix of veterans and young studs. The program history: if you are a team that knows how to peak right and has a culture of heading to the state championship, that gives you an advantage. However, if you have had some tough defeats, you are that much more hungry for a break through. And lastly: spread. Look you need 5 guys to win a title. But early in the season, it's rare for a teams top 5 to be set in stone. Line ups change over the year and spreads (usually) tend to shrink as the natural competitiveness of the squad drags guys closer together. If a team doesn't have a good 4/5 in September it doesn't scare me the same as it will in October, especially if it's a young squad or a great program. I like to see a squad with a great top 3. And I love to see a squad that has a ton of guys competing for the 5-10 spots. That's huge because those guys are going to push each other to new heights. That's what it looks like on NAs roster most years, same with Henderson. That's what Conestoga and DT West seem like. That's a good sign.
So with all this in mind this is where I currently rank the teams in D3 in order of most likely to make states (not most likely to win districts)
1. CValley
Great program, already have a slew of guys with potential to become impressive front runners, nice mix of experience
2. Carlise
Best team a year ago, they have the best front runner of the bunch and have a great top 3
3. Red Land
Seiger and Wilkinson leading the way, a team hungry after a narrow miss last year at districts
4. Lower Dauphin
Defending champs, young squad, should develop well over the year and have a reputation to protect
5a. Twin Valley
5b. Hershey
Both great squads, Twin gets a slight nod because they qualified for states a year ago.
7a. Governor Mifflin
7b. Hempfield
Both are dangerous sleepers, Mifflin gets a slight nod thanks to their front runner pulling the pack along.
9. Central Dauphin
10. Cedar Crest
It's going to be tight the whole way. I expect lots of movement on these rankings and lots of fun races this year from the mid state teams.
In the mean time let's talk some weekend action. This is thought one of my 7 thoughts of the weekend.
#1 The D3 race is heating up.
Last year the boys from Carlisle finished 6th at the state championships, the highest finish by a district 3 team at states since 2005 (Craig Millers Manheim Township squad was 2nd). Carlisle returns three key guys from last years squad: DeAngelo, Wisner and Zach Brehm, giving them a potent top 3. They ran strong in the first meet of the year at Chambersburg behind this top 3, but still need to establish a bit more of a 4-5 punch going forward.
The boys from Cumberland Valley took a strong step forward at PTXC with a third place finish (2nd PA). CV has been a consistently strong team and had a beautiful stretch of pack running behind a top 4 that was 7-16-18-24 (team scoring). Two of those top 4, Josh Higgins and Yahya Soliman, are just sophomores. Senior Quinn Wasko took a big step forward with a 7th place overall finish, jumping some men ahead of him.
Red Land was just behind CV, riding key performances from Zach Seiger (3rd) and Drew Wilkinson (11th). They return their entire top 7 from districts last year. Seiger is stepping in to a lead role with authority while Wilkinson is improving as well. Hershey also returns their entire district squad from a year ago, including Aiden Demko, a solid runner for the past 2 years, and Will Sponaugle, an emerging miler with excellent potential. Both teams have been under the radar dramatically out in the middle of the state.
Also in contention is a Lower Dauphin team that, in case you forgot, is the defending champs. Sean Weidner stepped into a leading role with a 4th place finish at PTXC. Running with him is an emerging pair of sophomores in Colton Cassell (19th) and Kyle Shea (21st). Dauphin lost some key seniors a year ago which means it may take some time for the next generation to assert itself, but there is a certain element of pride that comes with being the defending champs. And then there is Twin Valley, who wasn't on the starting line at PTXC, but did sweep the first 4 spots and the team title in their opener.
Throw in Hempfield (solid at Oakburne returns top 4 and 6 of 7 from last years squad), Governor Mifflin (returns their top 5 from last year led by the emerging Luckanitz) and other teams consistetly at the top (Central Dauphin, Cedar Crest) and you have a mad house rush for the 4 state spots.
Wow. This is going to be a thrilling season, I'm not sure anyone is safely through, although if I had to pick one squad to find a way it would be the boys of Cumberland Valley. Since 2006, not only has CV made states every year, they have been one of the top 2 squads from D3 every single year, something that no team from D1 can boast. They were also the #1 team from D3 in 5 different seasons, despite only winning 1 district championship during that period (2012, where they had their highest finish over that span with an 8th place finish).
What that tells me is A) Cumby is a great program with an excellent chance of being tops in the district again and B) being d3 champ is not the priority for this squad. As I've chronicled for this blog before, there a slew of disadvantages to running the state course back to back weeks and the results show D3 has suffered. Statistically speaking it's better to be somewhere around 8th at districts as an individual than to win if you want to do well at states. That's no different for d3 teams.
Since 2007 when the course changes really took effect, the team champ and districts has been the top team at states just twice over the 7 year period. Over the same window the district champ has been the 5th best team at states twice as well.
So all these teams face a natural trade off: states or districts? Where do we want to excel?
But the question is, can any of these teams afford to hold back at states considering the depth of the team battle?
When I evaluate the potential going forward, I look at a couple factors (it's still very early). The age of the squad: a young squad has more room to grow but less experience at the top level. They need the right mix of veterans and young studs. The program history: if you are a team that knows how to peak right and has a culture of heading to the state championship, that gives you an advantage. However, if you have had some tough defeats, you are that much more hungry for a break through. And lastly: spread. Look you need 5 guys to win a title. But early in the season, it's rare for a teams top 5 to be set in stone. Line ups change over the year and spreads (usually) tend to shrink as the natural competitiveness of the squad drags guys closer together. If a team doesn't have a good 4/5 in September it doesn't scare me the same as it will in October, especially if it's a young squad or a great program. I like to see a squad with a great top 3. And I love to see a squad that has a ton of guys competing for the 5-10 spots. That's huge because those guys are going to push each other to new heights. That's what it looks like on NAs roster most years, same with Henderson. That's what Conestoga and DT West seem like. That's a good sign.
So with all this in mind this is where I currently rank the teams in D3 in order of most likely to make states (not most likely to win districts)
1. CValley
Great program, already have a slew of guys with potential to become impressive front runners, nice mix of experience
2. Carlise
Best team a year ago, they have the best front runner of the bunch and have a great top 3
3. Red Land
Seiger and Wilkinson leading the way, a team hungry after a narrow miss last year at districts
4. Lower Dauphin
Defending champs, young squad, should develop well over the year and have a reputation to protect
5a. Twin Valley
5b. Hershey
Both great squads, Twin gets a slight nod because they qualified for states a year ago.
7a. Governor Mifflin
7b. Hempfield
Both are dangerous sleepers, Mifflin gets a slight nod thanks to their front runner pulling the pack along.
9. Central Dauphin
10. Cedar Crest
It's going to be tight the whole way. I expect lots of movement on these rankings and lots of fun races this year from the mid state teams.
A House Divided
Flash back to 2008. Mark Dennin grabs a big time state title in cross and follows it up with a convincing regionals/nationals stretch run. 3 PA men qualify for nationals, all AAA competitors. The likes of Max Kaulbach of GFS (2nd at NXN before they had individual qualifying spots) and Dan Lowry of LaSalle (12th at Footlocker Regionals) were left home. Both belonged to teams outside of the PIAA.
Indoors the boys had their revenge. Kaulbach stuns title favorites Crits and McNally. Sean Mallon of Archbishop Ryan even sneaks up for 3rd. Then the LaSalle boys pull the DMR upset behind Lowry's brilliant 4:12 anchor. A week later Archbishop Ryan wins a national championship in the DMR (out of the slow heat no less) behind Sean Mallon's 4:14 split.
That outdoors, we went pack to PIAA dominant discussions as soon as the Penn Relays was over (GFS, LaSalle and Ryan were the top 3 PA squads in the DM, Finucane top PA miler). Crits out kicks Hobart and Kareis to win a state title with a thrilling kick in 4:11. Dennin dominates the 32 at states.
Meanwhile we forget all about the likes of Mallon and Lowry and Kaulbach. Kaulbach breaks 9 a couple times for 3200m equivalent with barely any week to week competition and runs a 4:11 equivalent for 1500m. Brian Fulton of Malvern Prep runs a 1:52.77 relatively uncontested, a mark which, combined with his kick, would have put him right in the hunt with sophomore Tom Mallon for the 800 title, cutting a brilliant legacy short a year. Dan Lowry ran a 4:12 equivalent in the mile at the PA distance festival with no body else in sight when he crossed the finish line.
Imagine a Sean Mallon, Dan Lowry, Max Kaulbach, Nick Crits, TJ Hobart, Finucane and Greg Kareis state meet 1600m! We were robbed honestly. We likely would have had another sub 4:10 guy 3 years earlier and Craig Miller likely wouldn't have held his record as long as he did.
We still don't have a perfect system (a true meet of champions meet, like New Jersey) and in many ways we are moving farther away from this goal (moving to 3 classes in XC) but in 2009 at least we got the PCL involved in the proceedings.
Can you imagine how these last 6 years would have played out without the PCL? It's a drastically different world. There is no epic Henderson-Ohara dual at states: we only see the duo go head to head at regionals at Nationals. It completely changes the great legacy and rivalry. There is likely no Henderson vs Ohara two mile, possibly a more conservative state run by Tony Russell, who knows Henderson only needs to beat a young NA squad and a good CRN squad that can't compete with Henderson's depth after their top 3. Maybe Russell only wins one title without Ohara breathing down his neck? Who knows?
The PCL had 2 medalists it's first year (24th and 25th) and the 2nd place team (LaSalle) who beat NA for that podium spot. Keep in mind, because of their one point loss to NA a devastated North Allegheny team went to NXN and grabbed a 12th place finish at Nationals. Without the PCL that doesn't happen. (Keep in mind most years NA doesn't even choose to go to NXN preferring not to extend their season and risk ending on a sour note)
Every year the PCL has been around they have had a top 3 team in the state and multiple state medalists. We had 5 medalists and two top 5 teams in 2012 (and as I've argued in the past, they could have had two top 3 teams). Ohara by themselves has had Garrity, Savage (2x), Billotta, Pitone, James (2x), and Smart on the medal stand with 2 more guys (Sachetti and Belfatto) finishing in the top 30. LaSalle has produced 3 top 5 teams and one of the tightest spreads in state history in 2009. St Joes Prep and Father Judge gave us state medalists and Bonner on the AA level helped out as well. Even teams like Archbishop Wood have contributed strong runners in Tim Flanagan and Chris Muldoon. The epic Kehl vs Kellar battle was thanks to the PCL.
But we are still missing out. We already missed out on Ben Ritz, Aziz and Wistar at various outdoor state meets. And going forward we won't see Malvern Prep vs. NA, Hoey vs. Brophy and Nick Dahl vs. Scarpill who whichever youngster evolves into a champ by 2016-2017. There will be no Molino vs. Hockenbury vs. Abert this fall.
After seeing these great years of the PCL that include a state champ (Coyle) and a slew of the biggest close seconds in state history (Ohara twice, Kehl) as well as a footlocker finalist who got away (Phil Wood) and the greatest rivalry of the decade (Ohara vs Henderson) and another pretty fun rivalry (Coyle and Huemmler) what other memories have we missed out on? What other rivalries, diving finishes, and tie breakers have we been missing? Which ones will we miss out on in the future?
Isn't it possible Will Kachman and Sam Webb could have been diving for the finish line at states this fall? NA could have been working a 6th man tie breaker against Malvern Prep?
So why don't we have a meet of champions? Honestly how hard could this really be? I'm sure money is an issue (it's always an issue, and it's not going away) but think about it. There's a huge gap from states to nationals and regionals. Our best kids have to train during that period if they want to make it to the big meets. We want our state represented by the best we have to offer. But a lot of our best guys and teams are skipping Nats to recover, another month of training by yourself seems horrid. I don't blame guys like Todaro for shutting it down.
But stick a meet of champs in there 2 weeks after states, bring the best teams and best runners, and suddenly it's only two weeks of extra training for a shot at nationals. Not too bad at all. I'm even cool with putting the state title course somewhere quick. Lehigh isn't central to the state, but a similar type design makes sense. Keep everybody's legs a little fresher for Nats and such if people are concerned about it. I think you could get a real solid course at Big Spring where we ran our regional championships in XC in college. Carlisle is a nice course too, a bit of tightness and tight turns but spectator friendly and a reasonable course in difficulty. Both are fairly centrally located and have held big meets in the past.
The best qualifying system would certainly be a hot topic of debate. It's very, very difficult to do this on any sort of objective level. Especially when you are trying to keep the meet relatively small.
We would probably want something around 15-20 teams. So I would think something like: the top 2 schools at independent champs get an auto, the top 2 A, top 3 AA, and top 5 AAA. That gets you to 12. You fill the last 3-8 spots with some combination of the following factors: the PA milesplit rankings, a coaches poll, the merged state results, results from the big meets like Paul Short, Carlise, Pre States, and the District Championship meets.
The last spots would be that dreaded word: arbitrary. But too be fair that's how the last spots at NXN are decided. That's how the last spots at NCAAs are decided. So it's not unprecedented.
If you want to get crazy you could be fancy and say: winners of Carlisle, Paul Short and Pre States get auto bids to MoC as well and then that team is not included in the auto bid process of states. This is a cool idea (imagine the crazy environment around these meets) but isn't fair to small schools with low budgets (although this is a disadvantage in plenty of other ways that we haven't/can't account for) and doesn't encourage schools to peak properly.
You could say anybody who beat one of the teams that makes states as an auto bid at districts also goes to MoC (for example Conestoga last year with CRN) but I'm not sure how I feel about this rule either.
I think arbitrary might not be all bad. Think about it, arbitrary would have gotten 2012 LaSalle into the state meet with 7 guys instead of 5 and would have gotten Altoona there as well in 2013. There can be advantages as long as you have an unbias decision maker (very, very difficult to obtain believe it or not).
As for individuals, this is pretty simple in my eyes. You invite the top 3 individuals from each A and AA district who aren't a MoC qualified team. Top 5 for AAA in each district (you can also change these to be more district size specific like district 8 AAA only gets top 1 auto to MoC or something) Then take the top 10 non team qualifiers from the independent league, the top 15 guys from A and AA states that aren't qualified from Districts or teams and the top 20 from AAA who fit the same criteria. That gets you something like 165ish runners (give or take, like I said you can play with the numbers to get a fit you like). With 18ish teams, you are looking at a field of 250-300 runners (again numbers can vary) which is a pretty reasonable number for any course (2008 states had 285 finishers in AAA with 24 teams, 2013 had around 220 finishers with 19 teams in AAA).
I think this is a worthwhile goal to pursue. You have this meet in addition to state champs. You hand out state titles at one meet and you hand out pride and honor at the other. I see no problems with that, I see only solutions and excitement.
As for an outdoor track meet of champs, that's just about the easiest thing ever. First off Coach Kelly would 100% host it. Second off, you just make a qualifying time. It's track. Maybe throw some auto bids to state champs and boom. You got yourself a track MoC.
Think about it PIAA. I'm just saying.
Indoors the boys had their revenge. Kaulbach stuns title favorites Crits and McNally. Sean Mallon of Archbishop Ryan even sneaks up for 3rd. Then the LaSalle boys pull the DMR upset behind Lowry's brilliant 4:12 anchor. A week later Archbishop Ryan wins a national championship in the DMR (out of the slow heat no less) behind Sean Mallon's 4:14 split.
That outdoors, we went pack to PIAA dominant discussions as soon as the Penn Relays was over (GFS, LaSalle and Ryan were the top 3 PA squads in the DM, Finucane top PA miler). Crits out kicks Hobart and Kareis to win a state title with a thrilling kick in 4:11. Dennin dominates the 32 at states.
Meanwhile we forget all about the likes of Mallon and Lowry and Kaulbach. Kaulbach breaks 9 a couple times for 3200m equivalent with barely any week to week competition and runs a 4:11 equivalent for 1500m. Brian Fulton of Malvern Prep runs a 1:52.77 relatively uncontested, a mark which, combined with his kick, would have put him right in the hunt with sophomore Tom Mallon for the 800 title, cutting a brilliant legacy short a year. Dan Lowry ran a 4:12 equivalent in the mile at the PA distance festival with no body else in sight when he crossed the finish line.
Imagine a Sean Mallon, Dan Lowry, Max Kaulbach, Nick Crits, TJ Hobart, Finucane and Greg Kareis state meet 1600m! We were robbed honestly. We likely would have had another sub 4:10 guy 3 years earlier and Craig Miller likely wouldn't have held his record as long as he did.
We still don't have a perfect system (a true meet of champions meet, like New Jersey) and in many ways we are moving farther away from this goal (moving to 3 classes in XC) but in 2009 at least we got the PCL involved in the proceedings.
Can you imagine how these last 6 years would have played out without the PCL? It's a drastically different world. There is no epic Henderson-Ohara dual at states: we only see the duo go head to head at regionals at Nationals. It completely changes the great legacy and rivalry. There is likely no Henderson vs Ohara two mile, possibly a more conservative state run by Tony Russell, who knows Henderson only needs to beat a young NA squad and a good CRN squad that can't compete with Henderson's depth after their top 3. Maybe Russell only wins one title without Ohara breathing down his neck? Who knows?
The PCL had 2 medalists it's first year (24th and 25th) and the 2nd place team (LaSalle) who beat NA for that podium spot. Keep in mind, because of their one point loss to NA a devastated North Allegheny team went to NXN and grabbed a 12th place finish at Nationals. Without the PCL that doesn't happen. (Keep in mind most years NA doesn't even choose to go to NXN preferring not to extend their season and risk ending on a sour note)
Every year the PCL has been around they have had a top 3 team in the state and multiple state medalists. We had 5 medalists and two top 5 teams in 2012 (and as I've argued in the past, they could have had two top 3 teams). Ohara by themselves has had Garrity, Savage (2x), Billotta, Pitone, James (2x), and Smart on the medal stand with 2 more guys (Sachetti and Belfatto) finishing in the top 30. LaSalle has produced 3 top 5 teams and one of the tightest spreads in state history in 2009. St Joes Prep and Father Judge gave us state medalists and Bonner on the AA level helped out as well. Even teams like Archbishop Wood have contributed strong runners in Tim Flanagan and Chris Muldoon. The epic Kehl vs Kellar battle was thanks to the PCL.
But we are still missing out. We already missed out on Ben Ritz, Aziz and Wistar at various outdoor state meets. And going forward we won't see Malvern Prep vs. NA, Hoey vs. Brophy and Nick Dahl vs. Scarpill who whichever youngster evolves into a champ by 2016-2017. There will be no Molino vs. Hockenbury vs. Abert this fall.
After seeing these great years of the PCL that include a state champ (Coyle) and a slew of the biggest close seconds in state history (Ohara twice, Kehl) as well as a footlocker finalist who got away (Phil Wood) and the greatest rivalry of the decade (Ohara vs Henderson) and another pretty fun rivalry (Coyle and Huemmler) what other memories have we missed out on? What other rivalries, diving finishes, and tie breakers have we been missing? Which ones will we miss out on in the future?
Isn't it possible Will Kachman and Sam Webb could have been diving for the finish line at states this fall? NA could have been working a 6th man tie breaker against Malvern Prep?
So why don't we have a meet of champions? Honestly how hard could this really be? I'm sure money is an issue (it's always an issue, and it's not going away) but think about it. There's a huge gap from states to nationals and regionals. Our best kids have to train during that period if they want to make it to the big meets. We want our state represented by the best we have to offer. But a lot of our best guys and teams are skipping Nats to recover, another month of training by yourself seems horrid. I don't blame guys like Todaro for shutting it down.
But stick a meet of champs in there 2 weeks after states, bring the best teams and best runners, and suddenly it's only two weeks of extra training for a shot at nationals. Not too bad at all. I'm even cool with putting the state title course somewhere quick. Lehigh isn't central to the state, but a similar type design makes sense. Keep everybody's legs a little fresher for Nats and such if people are concerned about it. I think you could get a real solid course at Big Spring where we ran our regional championships in XC in college. Carlisle is a nice course too, a bit of tightness and tight turns but spectator friendly and a reasonable course in difficulty. Both are fairly centrally located and have held big meets in the past.
The best qualifying system would certainly be a hot topic of debate. It's very, very difficult to do this on any sort of objective level. Especially when you are trying to keep the meet relatively small.
We would probably want something around 15-20 teams. So I would think something like: the top 2 schools at independent champs get an auto, the top 2 A, top 3 AA, and top 5 AAA. That gets you to 12. You fill the last 3-8 spots with some combination of the following factors: the PA milesplit rankings, a coaches poll, the merged state results, results from the big meets like Paul Short, Carlise, Pre States, and the District Championship meets.
The last spots would be that dreaded word: arbitrary. But too be fair that's how the last spots at NXN are decided. That's how the last spots at NCAAs are decided. So it's not unprecedented.
If you want to get crazy you could be fancy and say: winners of Carlisle, Paul Short and Pre States get auto bids to MoC as well and then that team is not included in the auto bid process of states. This is a cool idea (imagine the crazy environment around these meets) but isn't fair to small schools with low budgets (although this is a disadvantage in plenty of other ways that we haven't/can't account for) and doesn't encourage schools to peak properly.
You could say anybody who beat one of the teams that makes states as an auto bid at districts also goes to MoC (for example Conestoga last year with CRN) but I'm not sure how I feel about this rule either.
I think arbitrary might not be all bad. Think about it, arbitrary would have gotten 2012 LaSalle into the state meet with 7 guys instead of 5 and would have gotten Altoona there as well in 2013. There can be advantages as long as you have an unbias decision maker (very, very difficult to obtain believe it or not).
As for individuals, this is pretty simple in my eyes. You invite the top 3 individuals from each A and AA district who aren't a MoC qualified team. Top 5 for AAA in each district (you can also change these to be more district size specific like district 8 AAA only gets top 1 auto to MoC or something) Then take the top 10 non team qualifiers from the independent league, the top 15 guys from A and AA states that aren't qualified from Districts or teams and the top 20 from AAA who fit the same criteria. That gets you something like 165ish runners (give or take, like I said you can play with the numbers to get a fit you like). With 18ish teams, you are looking at a field of 250-300 runners (again numbers can vary) which is a pretty reasonable number for any course (2008 states had 285 finishers in AAA with 24 teams, 2013 had around 220 finishers with 19 teams in AAA).
I think this is a worthwhile goal to pursue. You have this meet in addition to state champs. You hand out state titles at one meet and you hand out pride and honor at the other. I see no problems with that, I see only solutions and excitement.
As for an outdoor track meet of champs, that's just about the easiest thing ever. First off Coach Kelly would 100% host it. Second off, you just make a qualifying time. It's track. Maybe throw some auto bids to state champs and boom. You got yourself a track MoC.
Think about it PIAA. I'm just saying.
NCCA Chatter
So for those of you who come here for high school talk, feel free to check out the post below this one which examines some of the brewing story lines after Weekend 1 of the 2014 XC season in PA. This post will be dedicated to various levels of NCAA Cross Country.
Stanford, early on, is projected to be one of the top teams in the NCAA this year. Flotrack just recently ranked them #2 in the nation thanks, mainly, to the addition of Maksim Korolev from Harvard. Korolev was 3rd (barely short of 2nd) at Nationals last year, and will be using his remaining eligibility for the Cardinal. Stanford is an intriguing squad because of the blossoming talent of the Rosa twins, both of which are coming off break through years. In high school, Jim and Joe each had a slew of impressive performances. The highlight was likely when Joe Rosa beat Dathan Ritzenhein's Junior Class record for two miles as he squashed Lukas Verzbicas in the second half of the 2 Mile at Outdoor Nationals and stopped the clock around 8:44. It was a big moment for the Rosa twins who struggled to get their hands on a major National level championship (a few losses at the Penn Relays, a heartbreaking loss at NXN to Craig Lutz, some tough losses on a variety of DMRs to teams like Hamden and St. Benedict's). The 2-mile over Verzbicas seemed to be the big break. But injuries and inconsistencies continued to hold back the twins from taking the next step when they got to college. Well, at least until this past year. Jim started things off with an extremely clutch 5th place run at NCAAs in the fall and then followed it up with sub 29 10k performance to earn himself another podium finish outdoors. Joe ran a big PR in the 5k and dipped into the 13:30s, also landing himself on the podium in one of the fastest 5000m finals in NCAA history.
Throw the rapidly improving Rosa twins on a squad the features Mike Atchoo (anchor of National Championship DMR and NCAA 1500m finalist), Sean McGorty (sub 13:40 5000m last year as a true frosh) and the aforementioned Korolev and you have a very strong team. Stanford opened their season with a pack running affair, taking 4-8 in San Fransico, with all their guys at 25:26. The group was Joe Rosa, Garrett Sweat, Sam Wharton, Mike Atchoo and Jack Keelan. Wharton was a very successful high school cross country runner who is now a redshirt freshman for Stanford this season. No McGorty, Korolev or Jim Rosa in the opener, so hopefully all those guys are helpful. Pair that trio with the group we saw in Meet 1 and this team is very dangerous. Adam Thorne, Marco Bertollotti and PA's own Tom Coyle are other members of the team looking to make an impact this season based on the Season Opener.
I still don't see Stanford as a top 5 team. They still seem to be one or two guys short having a dominant top 5 that is on par with the defending champion Colorado and they have not shown the poise at the championships themselves to be ranked ahead of teams like OSU and NAU or even the U of O. Teams like BYU, New Mexico and others always peak excellently for the 10k at Nats and will always be dangerous against a team like Stanford that, unfortunately, has tended to underachieve at the big dance. Last year the Trees were 19th, despite the breakthrough race from Jim Rosa. It should be interesting to see if adding a clutch leader like Korolev, getting a one year stronger and more experienced McGorty back and returning 5k All American Joe Rosa can change the tides for this squad.
In other Pac 12 news, the defending champion Colorado Buffaloes had their traditional 8k time trial race to start of their season. The Buffaloes return all their scorers from their championship team a year ago, plus they add back in Jake Hursyz, a brilliant 1500/5k runner who has been an All American for this team in the past. In another typical early season pack running affair, Hursyz and freshman Adam Peterman, were the first of a pack of 6 to cross the line under 26 minutes. Morgan Pearson, one of the studs from last year's squad, ran unattached in the race and Ben Saarel, the freshman sensation who finished in the top 10 last year (8th overall) to lead the Buffs was MIA. I'm unsure of what this means for both men's status looking ahead.
Saarel was phenomenal in his rookie campaign a year ago and has people like me thinking he could be one of America's next great distance runners. He ran a 7:52 for 3k indoors, one of the fastest ever for an American Junior, ran 3:41 for 1500m and broke 14 minutes for 5k. All of this came a year after he ran 4:02 to best one of the best Dream Mile fields of all time in horrid conditions. He showcased a furious kick and excellent wheels to go along with 10k strength that landed him a top 8 spot at Nats and #2 freshman honors behind the one and only Ed Cheserek. Hopefully Saarel is healthy and in the line up this year.
Colorado is loaded with Ammar Moussa, Conor White, Blake Theroux, and Pierce Murphy all running strong after last year's excellent National title run and a track season that featured multiple runs at or sub 14 in the 5k. The healthy runners this team showcased in their first meet are enough to believe they can compete for a national title, even without Saarel and Pearson.
The last Pac 12 team with National title hopes, the University of Oregon will look to carry the momentum from their back to back track national titles indoors and outdoors at their first meet on September 5th, the Bill Dellinger Invite. It will be Edward Cheserek's first race of the year. Cheserek is currently the reigning NCAA champ in Cross Country and his Ducks were 5th last year. Chesrek also ran mammoth PRs of 3:36 and 13:18 on the track. Indoors he won the 3k and 5k National Titles. Outdoors he won a couple Penn Relays wheels and added a 10k National Championship. It took an impressive meet record run from Lawi Lalang in the 5k to outlast a tired Ed Cheserek who was trying to become 5/5 on National Titles over the course of his freshman campaign in Yellow and Green.
In Division III news, defending Mideast Regional Champions Johns Hopkins opened up their season first out of the big name schools in the region with a convincing win at the Salisbury Invitational. At the very fast course that is Salisbury, Hopkins averaged an 8k time of 25:53 and scored 18 points for a convincing win over squads like Salisbury and Navy (although Navy was running almost exclusively freshman on race day). Their top 5 had a spread of just 15 seconds, led by Andrew Cerruzzi and Austin Stecklair. Hopkins really emerged as an XC powerhouse last year when they stunned Haverford and Dickinson back to back weeks to snag both the Conference and Regional titles from them. Unfortunately, the team could not carry the momentum to Nationals the following weekend. With an extra year of experience at the top and many returners from that squad, the Jays hope to place better this year, eyeing a possible top 5 finish nationally.
Stanford, early on, is projected to be one of the top teams in the NCAA this year. Flotrack just recently ranked them #2 in the nation thanks, mainly, to the addition of Maksim Korolev from Harvard. Korolev was 3rd (barely short of 2nd) at Nationals last year, and will be using his remaining eligibility for the Cardinal. Stanford is an intriguing squad because of the blossoming talent of the Rosa twins, both of which are coming off break through years. In high school, Jim and Joe each had a slew of impressive performances. The highlight was likely when Joe Rosa beat Dathan Ritzenhein's Junior Class record for two miles as he squashed Lukas Verzbicas in the second half of the 2 Mile at Outdoor Nationals and stopped the clock around 8:44. It was a big moment for the Rosa twins who struggled to get their hands on a major National level championship (a few losses at the Penn Relays, a heartbreaking loss at NXN to Craig Lutz, some tough losses on a variety of DMRs to teams like Hamden and St. Benedict's). The 2-mile over Verzbicas seemed to be the big break. But injuries and inconsistencies continued to hold back the twins from taking the next step when they got to college. Well, at least until this past year. Jim started things off with an extremely clutch 5th place run at NCAAs in the fall and then followed it up with sub 29 10k performance to earn himself another podium finish outdoors. Joe ran a big PR in the 5k and dipped into the 13:30s, also landing himself on the podium in one of the fastest 5000m finals in NCAA history.
Throw the rapidly improving Rosa twins on a squad the features Mike Atchoo (anchor of National Championship DMR and NCAA 1500m finalist), Sean McGorty (sub 13:40 5000m last year as a true frosh) and the aforementioned Korolev and you have a very strong team. Stanford opened their season with a pack running affair, taking 4-8 in San Fransico, with all their guys at 25:26. The group was Joe Rosa, Garrett Sweat, Sam Wharton, Mike Atchoo and Jack Keelan. Wharton was a very successful high school cross country runner who is now a redshirt freshman for Stanford this season. No McGorty, Korolev or Jim Rosa in the opener, so hopefully all those guys are helpful. Pair that trio with the group we saw in Meet 1 and this team is very dangerous. Adam Thorne, Marco Bertollotti and PA's own Tom Coyle are other members of the team looking to make an impact this season based on the Season Opener.
I still don't see Stanford as a top 5 team. They still seem to be one or two guys short having a dominant top 5 that is on par with the defending champion Colorado and they have not shown the poise at the championships themselves to be ranked ahead of teams like OSU and NAU or even the U of O. Teams like BYU, New Mexico and others always peak excellently for the 10k at Nats and will always be dangerous against a team like Stanford that, unfortunately, has tended to underachieve at the big dance. Last year the Trees were 19th, despite the breakthrough race from Jim Rosa. It should be interesting to see if adding a clutch leader like Korolev, getting a one year stronger and more experienced McGorty back and returning 5k All American Joe Rosa can change the tides for this squad.
In other Pac 12 news, the defending champion Colorado Buffaloes had their traditional 8k time trial race to start of their season. The Buffaloes return all their scorers from their championship team a year ago, plus they add back in Jake Hursyz, a brilliant 1500/5k runner who has been an All American for this team in the past. In another typical early season pack running affair, Hursyz and freshman Adam Peterman, were the first of a pack of 6 to cross the line under 26 minutes. Morgan Pearson, one of the studs from last year's squad, ran unattached in the race and Ben Saarel, the freshman sensation who finished in the top 10 last year (8th overall) to lead the Buffs was MIA. I'm unsure of what this means for both men's status looking ahead.
Saarel was phenomenal in his rookie campaign a year ago and has people like me thinking he could be one of America's next great distance runners. He ran a 7:52 for 3k indoors, one of the fastest ever for an American Junior, ran 3:41 for 1500m and broke 14 minutes for 5k. All of this came a year after he ran 4:02 to best one of the best Dream Mile fields of all time in horrid conditions. He showcased a furious kick and excellent wheels to go along with 10k strength that landed him a top 8 spot at Nats and #2 freshman honors behind the one and only Ed Cheserek. Hopefully Saarel is healthy and in the line up this year.
Colorado is loaded with Ammar Moussa, Conor White, Blake Theroux, and Pierce Murphy all running strong after last year's excellent National title run and a track season that featured multiple runs at or sub 14 in the 5k. The healthy runners this team showcased in their first meet are enough to believe they can compete for a national title, even without Saarel and Pearson.
The last Pac 12 team with National title hopes, the University of Oregon will look to carry the momentum from their back to back track national titles indoors and outdoors at their first meet on September 5th, the Bill Dellinger Invite. It will be Edward Cheserek's first race of the year. Cheserek is currently the reigning NCAA champ in Cross Country and his Ducks were 5th last year. Chesrek also ran mammoth PRs of 3:36 and 13:18 on the track. Indoors he won the 3k and 5k National Titles. Outdoors he won a couple Penn Relays wheels and added a 10k National Championship. It took an impressive meet record run from Lawi Lalang in the 5k to outlast a tired Ed Cheserek who was trying to become 5/5 on National Titles over the course of his freshman campaign in Yellow and Green.
In Division III news, defending Mideast Regional Champions Johns Hopkins opened up their season first out of the big name schools in the region with a convincing win at the Salisbury Invitational. At the very fast course that is Salisbury, Hopkins averaged an 8k time of 25:53 and scored 18 points for a convincing win over squads like Salisbury and Navy (although Navy was running almost exclusively freshman on race day). Their top 5 had a spread of just 15 seconds, led by Andrew Cerruzzi and Austin Stecklair. Hopkins really emerged as an XC powerhouse last year when they stunned Haverford and Dickinson back to back weeks to snag both the Conference and Regional titles from them. Unfortunately, the team could not carry the momentum to Nationals the following weekend. With an extra year of experience at the top and many returners from that squad, the Jays hope to place better this year, eyeing a possible top 5 finish nationally.
Weekend 1
After the opening weekend of action, I didn't feel a particularly strong need to do another ranking system when only a few small things would change. So I decided I will just give you guys my top 7 thoughts of the weekend (basically only top 7 can run varsity ...)
#1 District 6 is going to be very fun.
I'm gonna start this with a mini rant so be prepared. In 2012 LaSalle pulled off one of the coolest moments in state history, when the qualified for states by grabbing the only 5 available individual state qualifying spots at the d12 championships. Understand how improbable this is. You basically have to place 5 in the top 10 and still not win the meet. You can't have any guy have an off day, everything has to fall perfectly in place. And you need to have a really really good team that is still somehow not the best in the district. I'm not sure we will ever see it again.
LaSalle ended up 5th at states and probably could have been 3rd or 4th on a better day. Billotta, their 5th man on that day, had an off day (every team has a top 5 guy who doesn't have a great day on tht course, it's a brutal run) and if they actually had a 6 and 7 guy running that day they would have been able to help out billotta and possibly improve their team scoring. Once they had the 5 individuals qualify I'm kinda pissed that they didn't just let them run 7 guys. I mean c'mon PIAA, they crippled these guys.
Now I bring this up not to brag about how awesome LaSalle was that year (although how could I pass up an opportunity like that?), but instead to point how hard it is to be the second best team in a district that only sends one team to states. Especially when both teams are top 5 quality in the state. Now I'm not saying Altoona and State College are top 5 (although who knows? SC and Altoona have combined for a slew of top 5 teams over the years including last years 4th place squad) but both of these squads are very talented and only one can represent their district at states. Because Darien Knudsen is almost definitely making it to states if healthy which means there is no way the 2nd place team can get 5 in the top 10.
So in other words Altoona vs. State College this year has become the most interesting match up in the state. Altoona has defending state medalist Brad Foust and defending state champ Dom Stroh. That gave them a decided advantage in my head. However, it appears from this first meet that State College is not going away quietly and their leader, Alex Milligan, has continued his impressive improvement curve from a year ago as he finished first in the AAA section of their opener, beating Faust and Stroh who ran solid 2nd and 3rd finishes. As a result State College edged out Altoona in the team race. Epic stuff. A great team battle coupled with 4 guys (Faust, Stroh, Knudsen and Milligan) who are serious medal contenders in Hershey makes D6 the most fun district of week 1.
#2 Henderson and CR North have some work to do.
I'm not foolish enough to doubt either of these teams. I've seen them grow substantially over the course of a season and they are the two surest bets to make states year in and year out. But I will say this, the rest of the district is not afraid of their reputation. North got beat out by CB West (real impressive day for them) and CB East at Viking. Rock showed signs that he is ready to carry his track momentum to the trails this season for West and Brophy is obviously one of the favorites for individual district champ. Meanwhile Henderson was bested by Conestoga (early favorites for District champ) and DT West (young squad on the rise) and had some other teams on their back.
I'm not too phased by the Oakburne results (a two mile relay in August doesn't tell me much) and Viking, while a little bit more worrisome, is still August. But I will say that the district is very wide open for the 5 state spots. We haven't seen Pennsbury race yet (I expect them to be strong this year) but at this point only Conestoga looks like a lock for states. Everybody else is in a dog fight for the 4 remaining spots. That's exciting stuff.
(Mini rant, CB West returns basically their whole team from last year and is easily one of the best programs to have not made a state championship in the last decade or so. I'm a little upset with myself for completely over looking them in the preseason. This is a team I'm rooting for this year.)
#3 Dominic Hockenbury and Will Kachman is setting up to be an epic battle.
Another AAA chatter, let's get down to the two lost impressive performances of the weekend. Yeah I said it. First Hockenbury knocks off a top tier kinda guy in Nate Morgan of Lakeland, winning by almost a minute and breaking 16. The picture of Hockenbury with the fresh cut makes him look like he has grown and matured over the summer. He is making that Junior jump this year and already has a state gold and state silver going into this season. He really impressed me in race 1. It's just August, but this is the kind of first race a state champ/foot locker finalist puts down. He's looking good.
As for Kachman, he soloed a 16:11 victory in the fastest time of the day at his course (faster than all the D6 guys mentioned earlier). Kachman's true ceiling I don't expect to be measured until he can consistently find competition at his level ability (which technically may not happen until states, the kid is very talented). I think of him in similar way to Barrett Kemp. After years of flying under the radar in small district 9 Kemp ran under 9:20 as a senior at a windy states course to finish 3rd to just Shearn and Galassi, two greats of the era. I hope Kachman runs at Footlocker or Nike regionals this year. He's just a junior still and with proper big race experience has great potential.
These guys took 1-2 outdoors in the 32 and were 2-3 last year in XC behind Deluca. What a rivalry this has the potential to become in the next two years. Both guys will be juniors this year.
#4 The Chesmont shows early signs of being bananas
I touched on this briefly already, but I will elaborate here. I still expect Henderson to compete for a shot at states. Downingtown West came out the gates with a nice performance. Looks like Burton is riding top guy position right now, but their guys should continue to improve throughout the year, often times improving more than the upperclassmen throughout the year. No Alansky it looks like (I think I heard injury?) but they have filled in nicely with excellent depth. Both Burtons, Sappey, and Ryherd (not in their District top 7 last year) look like a really nice pack. Henderson still has nice weapons with Knapp and Barchet showing nice starts. Then you also have an on the rise Rustin team with Vogt and Coates having a nice start (they return basically everyone from a year ago) a Coatesville team that people have been giving chatter to (Blake Ettien mixed it up well with Stroh and Faust in the season opener, Tooles was a 1:57 guy on the track) and teams that are always strong like WC East and Great Valley. Plus you have Avon Grove (led by Josh Smith who ran excellent last year), DT East and a bunch of other young teams hungry to prove themselves. It's a good thing we have Chris Cummings on the case, because the Chesmont is setting up to be mayhem.
#5 Marston looks good for Conestoga, who coincidentally also looks good.
How about the start for Stoga? They asserted themselves against the two time state champs and Marston came out the gates guns blazing, I was impressed with his fitness. Stoga has incredible depth that I didn't quite realize they had. Nick Cruicshank quietly won the JV race at the meet, meaning Conestoga thought he was their 9th best guy. Their alleged 9th best guy is someone who ran 16:21 last year? Yikes. PJ Murray ran high 4:20s last year and now looks like a really solid varsity member for Stoga. Nelson looked strong, Iffert had a nice negative split, lots of good things on the horizon for Conestoga.
Yes it's just August, but this team looks like a squad poised to take a District title. And thought would be something truly historic.
#6 Brehm and Carlisle get a solid start
Here's the deal. Zach Brehm is going into his senior year as an All Timer in PA track. He's going in this year with a stacked resume. He has killer strength, as proven by a serious of great triples and quadruples in track, and he was top 10 in the state last year. If he adds an XC state title to his resume he becomes one of the best in state history.
So that's the guy motivating and leading the defending D3 runner ups in Carlisle. They are going after a much desired XC title to go with their track titles. They were 6th last year, on par with Conestoga and it's not like they return that much less. They showed a great top 3 this weekend and beat Chambersburg on their home course (nice running for burg though) so they are off to a good start. Carlisle peaked perfectly in track, so I expect a nice peak this year as well.
I can't stress this enough, it's only August.
#7 Not the big names, but some interesting subplots forming in the WPIAL
Lebo showed a nice pack (no Braun?) and their first meet, with Gunz as their 3 and impressive performances by Stone and Harris. Lebo was 8th last year and looks like have reloaded this year rather than rebuilding. Good stuff for a team that may have to deal with the shadow of NA (again).
Susalla had a big time win over White, Doyle and Conboy (and an intriguing soph from Baldwin). Susalla is one of those juniors with the potential to break out this fall. Nice for him to get a confidence building win. As for Baldwin, it's been a surprisingly long time since they have been truly relevant at WPIALs and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they start to jump up the standings this year.
Remember over the last decade or so the only two teams to scare NA as they try to continue their absurd streak of titles are Baldwin and Mt Lebo. Just saying.
#1 District 6 is going to be very fun.
I'm gonna start this with a mini rant so be prepared. In 2012 LaSalle pulled off one of the coolest moments in state history, when the qualified for states by grabbing the only 5 available individual state qualifying spots at the d12 championships. Understand how improbable this is. You basically have to place 5 in the top 10 and still not win the meet. You can't have any guy have an off day, everything has to fall perfectly in place. And you need to have a really really good team that is still somehow not the best in the district. I'm not sure we will ever see it again.
LaSalle ended up 5th at states and probably could have been 3rd or 4th on a better day. Billotta, their 5th man on that day, had an off day (every team has a top 5 guy who doesn't have a great day on tht course, it's a brutal run) and if they actually had a 6 and 7 guy running that day they would have been able to help out billotta and possibly improve their team scoring. Once they had the 5 individuals qualify I'm kinda pissed that they didn't just let them run 7 guys. I mean c'mon PIAA, they crippled these guys.
Now I bring this up not to brag about how awesome LaSalle was that year (although how could I pass up an opportunity like that?), but instead to point how hard it is to be the second best team in a district that only sends one team to states. Especially when both teams are top 5 quality in the state. Now I'm not saying Altoona and State College are top 5 (although who knows? SC and Altoona have combined for a slew of top 5 teams over the years including last years 4th place squad) but both of these squads are very talented and only one can represent their district at states. Because Darien Knudsen is almost definitely making it to states if healthy which means there is no way the 2nd place team can get 5 in the top 10.
So in other words Altoona vs. State College this year has become the most interesting match up in the state. Altoona has defending state medalist Brad Foust and defending state champ Dom Stroh. That gave them a decided advantage in my head. However, it appears from this first meet that State College is not going away quietly and their leader, Alex Milligan, has continued his impressive improvement curve from a year ago as he finished first in the AAA section of their opener, beating Faust and Stroh who ran solid 2nd and 3rd finishes. As a result State College edged out Altoona in the team race. Epic stuff. A great team battle coupled with 4 guys (Faust, Stroh, Knudsen and Milligan) who are serious medal contenders in Hershey makes D6 the most fun district of week 1.
#2 Henderson and CR North have some work to do.
I'm not foolish enough to doubt either of these teams. I've seen them grow substantially over the course of a season and they are the two surest bets to make states year in and year out. But I will say this, the rest of the district is not afraid of their reputation. North got beat out by CB West (real impressive day for them) and CB East at Viking. Rock showed signs that he is ready to carry his track momentum to the trails this season for West and Brophy is obviously one of the favorites for individual district champ. Meanwhile Henderson was bested by Conestoga (early favorites for District champ) and DT West (young squad on the rise) and had some other teams on their back.
I'm not too phased by the Oakburne results (a two mile relay in August doesn't tell me much) and Viking, while a little bit more worrisome, is still August. But I will say that the district is very wide open for the 5 state spots. We haven't seen Pennsbury race yet (I expect them to be strong this year) but at this point only Conestoga looks like a lock for states. Everybody else is in a dog fight for the 4 remaining spots. That's exciting stuff.
(Mini rant, CB West returns basically their whole team from last year and is easily one of the best programs to have not made a state championship in the last decade or so. I'm a little upset with myself for completely over looking them in the preseason. This is a team I'm rooting for this year.)
#3 Dominic Hockenbury and Will Kachman is setting up to be an epic battle.
Another AAA chatter, let's get down to the two lost impressive performances of the weekend. Yeah I said it. First Hockenbury knocks off a top tier kinda guy in Nate Morgan of Lakeland, winning by almost a minute and breaking 16. The picture of Hockenbury with the fresh cut makes him look like he has grown and matured over the summer. He is making that Junior jump this year and already has a state gold and state silver going into this season. He really impressed me in race 1. It's just August, but this is the kind of first race a state champ/foot locker finalist puts down. He's looking good.
As for Kachman, he soloed a 16:11 victory in the fastest time of the day at his course (faster than all the D6 guys mentioned earlier). Kachman's true ceiling I don't expect to be measured until he can consistently find competition at his level ability (which technically may not happen until states, the kid is very talented). I think of him in similar way to Barrett Kemp. After years of flying under the radar in small district 9 Kemp ran under 9:20 as a senior at a windy states course to finish 3rd to just Shearn and Galassi, two greats of the era. I hope Kachman runs at Footlocker or Nike regionals this year. He's just a junior still and with proper big race experience has great potential.
These guys took 1-2 outdoors in the 32 and were 2-3 last year in XC behind Deluca. What a rivalry this has the potential to become in the next two years. Both guys will be juniors this year.
#4 The Chesmont shows early signs of being bananas
I touched on this briefly already, but I will elaborate here. I still expect Henderson to compete for a shot at states. Downingtown West came out the gates with a nice performance. Looks like Burton is riding top guy position right now, but their guys should continue to improve throughout the year, often times improving more than the upperclassmen throughout the year. No Alansky it looks like (I think I heard injury?) but they have filled in nicely with excellent depth. Both Burtons, Sappey, and Ryherd (not in their District top 7 last year) look like a really nice pack. Henderson still has nice weapons with Knapp and Barchet showing nice starts. Then you also have an on the rise Rustin team with Vogt and Coates having a nice start (they return basically everyone from a year ago) a Coatesville team that people have been giving chatter to (Blake Ettien mixed it up well with Stroh and Faust in the season opener, Tooles was a 1:57 guy on the track) and teams that are always strong like WC East and Great Valley. Plus you have Avon Grove (led by Josh Smith who ran excellent last year), DT East and a bunch of other young teams hungry to prove themselves. It's a good thing we have Chris Cummings on the case, because the Chesmont is setting up to be mayhem.
#5 Marston looks good for Conestoga, who coincidentally also looks good.
How about the start for Stoga? They asserted themselves against the two time state champs and Marston came out the gates guns blazing, I was impressed with his fitness. Stoga has incredible depth that I didn't quite realize they had. Nick Cruicshank quietly won the JV race at the meet, meaning Conestoga thought he was their 9th best guy. Their alleged 9th best guy is someone who ran 16:21 last year? Yikes. PJ Murray ran high 4:20s last year and now looks like a really solid varsity member for Stoga. Nelson looked strong, Iffert had a nice negative split, lots of good things on the horizon for Conestoga.
Yes it's just August, but this team looks like a squad poised to take a District title. And thought would be something truly historic.
#6 Brehm and Carlisle get a solid start
Here's the deal. Zach Brehm is going into his senior year as an All Timer in PA track. He's going in this year with a stacked resume. He has killer strength, as proven by a serious of great triples and quadruples in track, and he was top 10 in the state last year. If he adds an XC state title to his resume he becomes one of the best in state history.
So that's the guy motivating and leading the defending D3 runner ups in Carlisle. They are going after a much desired XC title to go with their track titles. They were 6th last year, on par with Conestoga and it's not like they return that much less. They showed a great top 3 this weekend and beat Chambersburg on their home course (nice running for burg though) so they are off to a good start. Carlisle peaked perfectly in track, so I expect a nice peak this year as well.
I can't stress this enough, it's only August.
#7 Not the big names, but some interesting subplots forming in the WPIAL
Lebo showed a nice pack (no Braun?) and their first meet, with Gunz as their 3 and impressive performances by Stone and Harris. Lebo was 8th last year and looks like have reloaded this year rather than rebuilding. Good stuff for a team that may have to deal with the shadow of NA (again).
Susalla had a big time win over White, Doyle and Conboy (and an intriguing soph from Baldwin). Susalla is one of those juniors with the potential to break out this fall. Nice for him to get a confidence building win. As for Baldwin, it's been a surprisingly long time since they have been truly relevant at WPIALs and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they start to jump up the standings this year.
Remember over the last decade or so the only two teams to scare NA as they try to continue their absurd streak of titles are Baldwin and Mt Lebo. Just saying.
Is this the year for D11?
On the AAA side, District 11 hasn't exactly been enjoying time in the spotlight. They haven't a state champ in over a decade and in the last 5 seasons they have had 2 guys who ended up on the medal stand as individuals.
But this year seems positive for the valley boys of D11. Colin Abert is a superstar in XC, maybe the best the district has ever known. He was 2nd at states last year as a junior, the best finish since Sam Luff was runner up to Craig Miller in 2004. Much like Luff in 04, Abert ran into an All Timer who was at the peak of his ability and looking to defend his title. It's hard to imagine anyone beating Miller in 04, just like it's hard to imagine anyone defeating Russell last year.
Abert proved himself even after the state meet, placing in the top 15 at Regionals and positioning himself to take a shot at nationals this year. He also gets one more shot at that elusive state title for D11.
That's the defining difference between Luff and Abert. Luff didn't have a chance to come back one more time with no Miller in the field. Abert does.
Abert has been the top man from the class of 2015 at each of the last two state championships, an impressive achievement. The last two people to accomplish it? Conner Quinn and Sam Hibbs, both from Hatboro Horsham. Unfortunately, the boys both finished a disappointing 13th as Seniors. Before these two it was Jason Weller of Boyertown and Craig Miller of Manheim Township. Both won state titles as Seniors, with Weller's title being his first of two career defining upsets over 14:47/8:48 man Paul Springer.
Abert was 2nd at states last year as a Junior, another impressive mark. The most recent second place Juniors? Well there have actually been a lot ... Brent Kennedy, Dan Jaskowak, and Will Kellar were the last three. Kennedy suffered an injury that held him out of his Senior season, Jaskowak switched to AA and lost a tough one to Todaro and Shearn. Kellar ended up 6th as a Senior but ran a smart, impressive race and got himself a team gold medal with Henderson.
Abert has been at the top stage for two years now: extremely valuable experience. You could see his tactics improve substantially from his Sophomore to Junior year. And he made a state final in the 1600m last year and cracked 4:17. He ran 9:20 in the 32, and I'm convinced if he ran that race at states he would have run somewhere under 9:15 which puts him right in league with most of the states top returnerers in that event (but notice it probably finishes out of the medals which is why running the 16 was the right choice for him).
I feel the big problem for District 11 runners is this lack of experience against top guys. I think back to Matt Kacyon's sophomore year, the last district 11 medalist before Abert. In 2008, D11 had 3 medalists and another guy in the top 30. It was their best year. Kacyon wasn't one of those guys, as a soph he went out with the leaders through the mile in sub 4:50. He crumbled over the last half of the race and finished way out of the medals. The next two years he learned his lesson, finished 17th and 8th. Those crazy front running tactics that worked against inferior competition weren't as effective against the states elite.
When I saw Abert in 2012, I thought I was watching Kacyon 2.0, that my prediction for a top 25 spot for Abert would prove to be wrong if he couldn't hang from a very brisk sub 4:50 first mile that put him way out in front of the field. But Abert hung on valiantly. He finished 12th, one spot ahead of the defending state champ. Ahead of Webb and James. He was 4:42 at the mile, 6 seconds ahead of the field. Then he was in 15th at 2 miles, looking spent and then he dug down and found the gear the last mile.
That's what Abert has that is truly impressive to me. For two straight years he has looked on the verge of crumbling the second mile, only to rally impressively over the course of the final 800m, crest the final hill and finish strong. Despite his blazing first miles, he has actually improved his finish from 2 to 3 miles for back to back seasons. That's a remarkable display of heart and something that gives D11 fans hope for a title.
But beyond Abert, D11 has a team to get excited about. The boys from Freedom return 6 of their 7 boys from a 12th place finish last year. That may not sound like much, but keep in mind D11 has not had a top 10 team in the past decade. Their best finish in the last 12 seasons is 11th by Parkland. They have had a slew of teams finish in the 20s at states back when more teams were accepted to the state meet (which brings me to a slight tangent that I feel is important. D11 still sends two teams to states in AAA, the same amount as d12 and d6 combined. Think about that. LaSalle and Altoona are smacking themselves right now. And I think d11 is big enough they deserve 2 teams, honestly, but we need a slight change to this system because how can d12 and d6 not get a second team if d11 does? But I digress ...)
Freedom was a very solid team, that you could probably argue had an off day at the state meet and was a few better breaks from cracking the top 10. With most guys back and finding themselves with two straight years of valuable experience at the state level.
The state course takes a time or two to get used to it. And running a big race takes a time or two to get used to. That's why D1 teams tend to dominate these kind of meets. Yeah they are the biggest, but they see the best competition week in and week out. D1 guys have seen a variety of types of races and strategies, D11 guys have rarely ever been in a race that even remotely compares to states. Go out too hard youre cooked at the hills. Go out too slow you're buried and never moving up. You have to find your sweet spot and ride it. That takes practice. Look how much better Henderson was the second time around. Look how much better NA was the second time around. They were 5th and 4th at states with their young squads before getting a pair of golds and silver respectively. Russell is the only guy in the last decade who didn't medal at states the year before he won the state title. And he was 27th the year before they diluted the competition so he was a psuedo medalist in my opinion.
So that puts the D11 boys in a hole right away. One of my friends who ran for Nazareth hammered this point home to me and I agree. But Freedom has worked hard to erase that disadvantage, and it is a disadvantage you can combat with a carefully chosen schedule. Getting in Pre States and Paul Short are nice races that provide key experience and aren't horrible trips for D11 squads. Carlisle would be another nice meet for these squads to get involved with. I also think moving the district championships back to Lehigh would help them out a bit. Fast times, more confidence, less of a crazy, windy course. ( that's not windy as in wind that's windy as in lots of turns btw)
So what's so great about this freedom squad? Well last year they placed their top guy in the top 50 at the state meet, a big step forward. That was Ben Zeigler who will serve as the teams Senior leader. Freedom ran one of their best races of the year at pre states last year. They were 4th, ahead of Pennsbury and Lebo and just 18 points behind State College. Dan Quigley ran 17:03 at Pre States, a mark he failed to match at states. If he manages to come close to that mark at states, you are probably looking at a top 10 team. At pre states they averaged 17:30 and had a 59 second spread. At states they averaged 17:31 and had a 50 second spread. If they can time their peak better and have a better drop for the state meet, they will jump up a few spots. Certainly this could be a coaching issue, but remember coaches are learning a lot during this period too. The Freedom coach has turned these youngsters into studs and is slowly learning what kind of training it will take to peak at states. A lot of the best coaching methods are developed by educated trial and error. Then you get a system and churn out guys year after year.
At districts last year, Freedom dropped 2nd, 5th, 8th, 9th, and 13th on everybody. That's quite impressive. Zeigler beat out Gabe Lamm and Kevin Lapansky, too solid runners. Their spread was just 42 seconds. This was the kind of race they needed to have just a week later. This year that just may happen.
Beyond Abert and Freedom D11 has lots to be excited about. They return 13 of the top 14 from last years championships, including the top 8 finishers. Kev Lapansky has improved substantially training with Abert at Easton and ran in the 9:30s this past year. Gave Lamm was another break out guy for Whitehall last year. Whitehall and Emmaus both put together some excellent 4x8 squads as well.
I'm excited to see what d11 can bring to the table this year.
But this year seems positive for the valley boys of D11. Colin Abert is a superstar in XC, maybe the best the district has ever known. He was 2nd at states last year as a junior, the best finish since Sam Luff was runner up to Craig Miller in 2004. Much like Luff in 04, Abert ran into an All Timer who was at the peak of his ability and looking to defend his title. It's hard to imagine anyone beating Miller in 04, just like it's hard to imagine anyone defeating Russell last year.
Abert proved himself even after the state meet, placing in the top 15 at Regionals and positioning himself to take a shot at nationals this year. He also gets one more shot at that elusive state title for D11.
That's the defining difference between Luff and Abert. Luff didn't have a chance to come back one more time with no Miller in the field. Abert does.
Abert has been the top man from the class of 2015 at each of the last two state championships, an impressive achievement. The last two people to accomplish it? Conner Quinn and Sam Hibbs, both from Hatboro Horsham. Unfortunately, the boys both finished a disappointing 13th as Seniors. Before these two it was Jason Weller of Boyertown and Craig Miller of Manheim Township. Both won state titles as Seniors, with Weller's title being his first of two career defining upsets over 14:47/8:48 man Paul Springer.
Abert was 2nd at states last year as a Junior, another impressive mark. The most recent second place Juniors? Well there have actually been a lot ... Brent Kennedy, Dan Jaskowak, and Will Kellar were the last three. Kennedy suffered an injury that held him out of his Senior season, Jaskowak switched to AA and lost a tough one to Todaro and Shearn. Kellar ended up 6th as a Senior but ran a smart, impressive race and got himself a team gold medal with Henderson.
Abert has been at the top stage for two years now: extremely valuable experience. You could see his tactics improve substantially from his Sophomore to Junior year. And he made a state final in the 1600m last year and cracked 4:17. He ran 9:20 in the 32, and I'm convinced if he ran that race at states he would have run somewhere under 9:15 which puts him right in league with most of the states top returnerers in that event (but notice it probably finishes out of the medals which is why running the 16 was the right choice for him).
I feel the big problem for District 11 runners is this lack of experience against top guys. I think back to Matt Kacyon's sophomore year, the last district 11 medalist before Abert. In 2008, D11 had 3 medalists and another guy in the top 30. It was their best year. Kacyon wasn't one of those guys, as a soph he went out with the leaders through the mile in sub 4:50. He crumbled over the last half of the race and finished way out of the medals. The next two years he learned his lesson, finished 17th and 8th. Those crazy front running tactics that worked against inferior competition weren't as effective against the states elite.
When I saw Abert in 2012, I thought I was watching Kacyon 2.0, that my prediction for a top 25 spot for Abert would prove to be wrong if he couldn't hang from a very brisk sub 4:50 first mile that put him way out in front of the field. But Abert hung on valiantly. He finished 12th, one spot ahead of the defending state champ. Ahead of Webb and James. He was 4:42 at the mile, 6 seconds ahead of the field. Then he was in 15th at 2 miles, looking spent and then he dug down and found the gear the last mile.
That's what Abert has that is truly impressive to me. For two straight years he has looked on the verge of crumbling the second mile, only to rally impressively over the course of the final 800m, crest the final hill and finish strong. Despite his blazing first miles, he has actually improved his finish from 2 to 3 miles for back to back seasons. That's a remarkable display of heart and something that gives D11 fans hope for a title.
But beyond Abert, D11 has a team to get excited about. The boys from Freedom return 6 of their 7 boys from a 12th place finish last year. That may not sound like much, but keep in mind D11 has not had a top 10 team in the past decade. Their best finish in the last 12 seasons is 11th by Parkland. They have had a slew of teams finish in the 20s at states back when more teams were accepted to the state meet (which brings me to a slight tangent that I feel is important. D11 still sends two teams to states in AAA, the same amount as d12 and d6 combined. Think about that. LaSalle and Altoona are smacking themselves right now. And I think d11 is big enough they deserve 2 teams, honestly, but we need a slight change to this system because how can d12 and d6 not get a second team if d11 does? But I digress ...)
Freedom was a very solid team, that you could probably argue had an off day at the state meet and was a few better breaks from cracking the top 10. With most guys back and finding themselves with two straight years of valuable experience at the state level.
The state course takes a time or two to get used to it. And running a big race takes a time or two to get used to. That's why D1 teams tend to dominate these kind of meets. Yeah they are the biggest, but they see the best competition week in and week out. D1 guys have seen a variety of types of races and strategies, D11 guys have rarely ever been in a race that even remotely compares to states. Go out too hard youre cooked at the hills. Go out too slow you're buried and never moving up. You have to find your sweet spot and ride it. That takes practice. Look how much better Henderson was the second time around. Look how much better NA was the second time around. They were 5th and 4th at states with their young squads before getting a pair of golds and silver respectively. Russell is the only guy in the last decade who didn't medal at states the year before he won the state title. And he was 27th the year before they diluted the competition so he was a psuedo medalist in my opinion.
So that puts the D11 boys in a hole right away. One of my friends who ran for Nazareth hammered this point home to me and I agree. But Freedom has worked hard to erase that disadvantage, and it is a disadvantage you can combat with a carefully chosen schedule. Getting in Pre States and Paul Short are nice races that provide key experience and aren't horrible trips for D11 squads. Carlisle would be another nice meet for these squads to get involved with. I also think moving the district championships back to Lehigh would help them out a bit. Fast times, more confidence, less of a crazy, windy course. ( that's not windy as in wind that's windy as in lots of turns btw)
So what's so great about this freedom squad? Well last year they placed their top guy in the top 50 at the state meet, a big step forward. That was Ben Zeigler who will serve as the teams Senior leader. Freedom ran one of their best races of the year at pre states last year. They were 4th, ahead of Pennsbury and Lebo and just 18 points behind State College. Dan Quigley ran 17:03 at Pre States, a mark he failed to match at states. If he manages to come close to that mark at states, you are probably looking at a top 10 team. At pre states they averaged 17:30 and had a 59 second spread. At states they averaged 17:31 and had a 50 second spread. If they can time their peak better and have a better drop for the state meet, they will jump up a few spots. Certainly this could be a coaching issue, but remember coaches are learning a lot during this period too. The Freedom coach has turned these youngsters into studs and is slowly learning what kind of training it will take to peak at states. A lot of the best coaching methods are developed by educated trial and error. Then you get a system and churn out guys year after year.
At districts last year, Freedom dropped 2nd, 5th, 8th, 9th, and 13th on everybody. That's quite impressive. Zeigler beat out Gabe Lamm and Kevin Lapansky, too solid runners. Their spread was just 42 seconds. This was the kind of race they needed to have just a week later. This year that just may happen.
Beyond Abert and Freedom D11 has lots to be excited about. They return 13 of the top 14 from last years championships, including the top 8 finishers. Kev Lapansky has improved substantially training with Abert at Easton and ran in the 9:30s this past year. Gave Lamm was another break out guy for Whitehall last year. Whitehall and Emmaus both put together some excellent 4x8 squads as well.
I'm excited to see what d11 can bring to the table this year.
Running 101
So I decided that my first top 50 wasn't all that well thought so, heck why not drop a top 101 on everybody. Well here's the problem with that ... The natural variation and pure volume of names makes it impossible to pick basically 70 through 100 (30 names) from a set of 50-60 guys with comparable ability. And that's not even including the variety of kids I don't even know yet who will inevitably crack not just the top 100 but the top 50 and some all the way to the top 25. Anyone who had Andrew Marston and Casey Comber in their top 15 at the state meet please raise your hand and be recognized as a fortune teller.
But here's the thing ... I did the research, so why not throw down a list while I got some time to kill listening to the artic monkeys and taking a train home. So I'm gonna throw up a top 101 for the state but here's my rules about this post:
#1 I seperated everybody by tier. If two guys are in the same tier they are at the very least of quite similar ability and potential. So if you are going to argue my positions, argue for tier rather than number. 101 spots is just too many to get too specific with.
#2 If I left someone off the list, please share them here with a nice little bio or something. The cool thing about this list is that there should be lots of guys you can bring up who belong on this list and this gives us a great opportunity to share sleepers.
#3 Remember that in a week or two this thing is getting blown up and a new one will come out to account for the new round of data from the first meets of the year. So don't get too attached or too distraught.
#4 I'm gonna make a ton of mistakes typing out 101 name on my phone. Please politely correct my mistakes in the comments section. Don't take it personally. Also if you have insider information on injuries, moving, etc that influence these rankings please politely share below.
So without further ado, let's get to it. In reverse order ...
Tier 6- These guys are proven commodities who made the list over a slew of other talented borderline guys because I felt they had some specific bit of potential ready to be unleashed, or a certain school needed to have a name on the list or something like that. Not a lot seperated these guys from those just off the list.
101. G. Hepp, GFS
100. P. Grant, LaSalle
99. I. Braun, Mt Lebo
98. J. Weese, Canon Mac
97. J. Sussalla, Plum
96. T. Mays, Bensalem
95. J. MaGuire, CR South
94. D. Wilkinson, Red Land
93. S. Griswold, CRN
92. R. Fortuna, CB West
91. Z. White, West Allegheny
90. J. Daly, St. Joes Prep
89. R. James, Ohara
88. J. Heinauer, North Hills
87. G. Smith, Northeast Bradford
Tier 5: The difference or me between 6 and 5 is really all about upside. I see these tier 5 guys as having pretty similar cross chops to the tier 6 guys but they have big time upside based in track performance, training programs or a particularly impressive one off type performance.
86. E. Fadale, honestly forgot his school, I think it's Selingsgrove like his brother? It's a random one for sure
85. L. Upham, Northeast Bradford
84. D. Quigley, Freedom
83. G. Lamm, Whitehall
82. D. Diagcoma, Twin Valley
81. O. Seeber, Cumberland Valley
80. Y. Soliman, Cumberland Valley
79. A. Hanna, CR South
78. A. Demko, Hershey
77. G. Barchet, Henderson
76. D. Pastore, Ohara
75. J. Cooper, Conestoga
74. N. Sweet, dang it forget this one too, this probably will happen to a few more small school dudes unfortunately ... Probably shoulda wrote them down ...
73. B. Zeigler, Freedom
72. A. Stewart, Upper Dublin
71. A. Milligan, State College
70. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin
69. J. Espinal, Wilson
68. M. Scarpill, CB South
That stretch of 5 are some of the most interesting guys for me these first couple weeks, especially Scarpill and Espinal, I'm buying stock in them both big time.
67. E. Kennedy, Kiski
Tier 4: This group has a bit more impressive true XC credentials than tier 5, but I don't see quite enough big time potential to move them up to tier 3. The names start getting a bit more familiar from here in my mind.
66. K. Lapansky, Easton
65. E. Graca, Fox Chapel
64. B. Delaney, Manheim Township
63. S. Smith, Towanda
62. E. Linderman, Canon Mac
Graca trying to prove 800 based guys can excel at cross. He could end up a Lobb or Rotz type, probably not enough of a miler to end up like Stone. Linderman getting a ton of hype right now so I'll be looking forward to him. Smith is a very popular singer right now. Oh wait wrong guy.
61. A. Sauer, Pennsbury
60. J. Luckanitz, Governor Mifflin
59. J. Degroot Lutzner, Masterman
58. C. Trimble
57. T. Quiggle, Seneca Valley
A 1:52 split and 4:21 guy at 61 and 60. That's nice depth. Luckanitz could move up a lot in my eyes. Quiggle showed nice range last year, he and Kolor should be fun.
56. D. Green, James Buchanon
55. D. Eddinger, Boyertown
54. T. Gunzenhauser, Mt Lebanon
53. W. Sponaugle, Hershey
52. R. Tung, North Penn
51. M. Kolor, Seneca Valley
Eddinger is one of my most intriguing stories for this season after he burned through the rest of the states best lead off men, coming from seemingly nowhere to join Mercado. Boyertown has produced Weller (1st), Dennin (1st), Kelly (3rd) in recent years. Nice company. I'm on the Kolor bandwagon for sure. And I think if there is no rain at WPIALs TGunz has a much more impressive 16 PR to his name.
50. B. Wilt, Biglersville
49. M. Kravitz, North Pocono
Tier 3: We have hit guys who's skills are undeniable. I see Tier 3 as guys who are splitting the borderline between good and great. I'm not ready to say these guys are great, but they are very good. We are at AAA state medalist types now.
48. J. DiContino, Wymossing
47. J. Hoey, Malvern Prep
46. D. Knudsen, Mifflin County
45. S. Hilverding
44. B. Szuhaj, Penn Charter
For the record that's Little Hoey, Jaxson is a bit farther up. Had no idea Knudsen was coming back this year. Big sleeper out of District 6 no doubt, I like what he did last year on the track. And Big Ben Szuhaj was top 40 in the region 2 years ago. That's a guy who could fly up this list when healthy. Also Hilverding shouldn't be this low. He just shouldn't he's too good, gonna have to fix that on the next version.
43. B. Arita, CR North
42. J. Connors, Wilson
41. J. Tidball, Tunkhannock
40. N. Morgan, Lakeland
39. C. Holm, Radnor
Just raddled off some of my favorite names. Morgan and Holm are stud milers, I'll be interested to see if Holm translates like I think he will. Morgan is a much more established XC force. Tidball is on the defending champs and continued to improve during track last spring. I think he could be top 5 in AA states this year.
38. Z. Skolnevich, Quaker Valley
37. K. Shinn, Wyomising
36. K. Gonoude, Salisbury
35. S. Seel, North Allegheny
34. A. Benka, Grove City
33. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
32. E. Diestelow, West Chester East
31. Ryan Budnik, Grove City
Wilson is more impressive the more I examine his resume and CD does a nice job with their runners. Lots of great programs in this group including our first NA runner.
And just a quick note for all the kids out there hating on WC East and their "peaking too early", take a quick peak at the state and regional results for Mr. Chris Cummings. Top 15 and top 20 in the region at the end of November? WC East does just fine with their dudes as proven by their great team in 2012, Cummings last year and Diestelow once he got healthy in track. Plus they have had a DMR make states in there. Sorry had to get that in there.
Tier 2: These kids are a step below Star. Not quite a state champ or district champ in my eyes right now, but if things break right they will be right in the mix for serious hardware.
30. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
29. C. Wills, Malvern Prep
28. H. Wharrey, North Allegheny
27. L. Delaney, Winchester Thurston
26. D. Stroh, Altoona
I have Wharrey and Wills a bit on the high side because I think being on a great team makes everybody a little bit better. Plus they have some nice resumes already.
For the record Altoona was sneaky good last year. They were nearly another LaSalle during XC, snagging a spot at states despite being screwed by the one spot for D6 rule. They barely lost to SC who was a clear top 5 team last year. Altoona probably was a top 7-10 team as well, but we never got to find out. Stroh was arguably their best guy last year, he was the district champ after all! Faust ended being the state medalist, however, and so he gets ranked up a bit higher.
25. J. Smith, Avon Grove
24. B. Faust, Altoona
23. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep
22. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep
21. W. Loevner, Wichester Thurston
McDevitt gets a big boost after seeing his sea isle 10 miler run performance. I run that race every year, even when I haven't run for the month leading up to the race. It's a really fun run regardless of how out of shape you are and it was worth all the pain. Plus I got to see a pack of Ohara boys blow by me a little over halfway through and let me know how underrated they were. It was a powerful message, especially because I was slowly crumbling to pieces ... But I digress
20. P. Power, Spring Ford
19. N. Dahl, GFS
18. Z. Seiger, Red Land
17. W. Kachman, Bedford
16. A. Knapp, Henderson
This is a group I'm really rooting hat for. Dahl is a super exciting soph with a ton of talent. I underrated Seiger tragically last version of this list, he's a pro at XC. Knapp is a nice guy, clutch runner and trying to carry on a big time tradition. Kachman is the closest I get to making an It's A Wonderful Life reference and who doesn't love those. And Power ran in the 15:30s last year right? And he was a state medalist? He went in like the last round of last years pre state fantasy draft (to team etrain)! How does that happen? Kid deserves some love.
Tier 1: The cream of the crop. Guys with district state and national type goals.
15. S. Ritz, GA
14. A. Marston, Conestoga
13. C. Comber, Horsham
12. A. Gebhardt, New Oxford
11. D. Perretta, Beaver Area
Really fast dudes. Perrettas potential is through the roof. Ritz is a 4:10 guy. The other three are proven sub 9:20 guys as Juniors. That's no easy task. Plus they were all top 15 Aaa guys last year. They are real solid.
10. J. VanKooten, Pittsburgh CC
9. M. McGoey, NA
8. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
7. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
6. J. Brophy, CB East
Two guys I picked to win state titles recently (brophy, brehm) plus one of my favorites in McGoey and a guy who already won a state champ in Hockenbury. The last guy? Just a great miler with XC hardware, a district title and some nice lineage. Brophy is probably a decent amount of people's pick to win states and they are smart people. And look Brehm might be the best guy the state has seen since Craig Miller. He already has a slew of sub 4:10 marks and two state titles. If he wins in XC he becomes an all timer.
5. C. Abert, Easton
4. S. Webb, Pennsbury
3. J. Hoey, Malvern Prep
2. G. Molino, south Williamsport
1. K. James, Ohara
I will talk more about this top group in another post (I've been typing for an hour plus) but just know all these guys are studs and the fact that I can't bring myself to put a stud like Abert higher than 5th is absurd. It shows how excellent the depth is that the best guy in his class for 2 years is somehow 5th.
It's gonna be a really fun year.
But here's the thing ... I did the research, so why not throw down a list while I got some time to kill listening to the artic monkeys and taking a train home. So I'm gonna throw up a top 101 for the state but here's my rules about this post:
#1 I seperated everybody by tier. If two guys are in the same tier they are at the very least of quite similar ability and potential. So if you are going to argue my positions, argue for tier rather than number. 101 spots is just too many to get too specific with.
#2 If I left someone off the list, please share them here with a nice little bio or something. The cool thing about this list is that there should be lots of guys you can bring up who belong on this list and this gives us a great opportunity to share sleepers.
#3 Remember that in a week or two this thing is getting blown up and a new one will come out to account for the new round of data from the first meets of the year. So don't get too attached or too distraught.
#4 I'm gonna make a ton of mistakes typing out 101 name on my phone. Please politely correct my mistakes in the comments section. Don't take it personally. Also if you have insider information on injuries, moving, etc that influence these rankings please politely share below.
So without further ado, let's get to it. In reverse order ...
Tier 6- These guys are proven commodities who made the list over a slew of other talented borderline guys because I felt they had some specific bit of potential ready to be unleashed, or a certain school needed to have a name on the list or something like that. Not a lot seperated these guys from those just off the list.
101. G. Hepp, GFS
100. P. Grant, LaSalle
99. I. Braun, Mt Lebo
98. J. Weese, Canon Mac
97. J. Sussalla, Plum
96. T. Mays, Bensalem
95. J. MaGuire, CR South
94. D. Wilkinson, Red Land
93. S. Griswold, CRN
92. R. Fortuna, CB West
91. Z. White, West Allegheny
90. J. Daly, St. Joes Prep
89. R. James, Ohara
88. J. Heinauer, North Hills
87. G. Smith, Northeast Bradford
Tier 5: The difference or me between 6 and 5 is really all about upside. I see these tier 5 guys as having pretty similar cross chops to the tier 6 guys but they have big time upside based in track performance, training programs or a particularly impressive one off type performance.
86. E. Fadale, honestly forgot his school, I think it's Selingsgrove like his brother? It's a random one for sure
85. L. Upham, Northeast Bradford
84. D. Quigley, Freedom
83. G. Lamm, Whitehall
82. D. Diagcoma, Twin Valley
81. O. Seeber, Cumberland Valley
80. Y. Soliman, Cumberland Valley
79. A. Hanna, CR South
78. A. Demko, Hershey
77. G. Barchet, Henderson
76. D. Pastore, Ohara
75. J. Cooper, Conestoga
74. N. Sweet, dang it forget this one too, this probably will happen to a few more small school dudes unfortunately ... Probably shoulda wrote them down ...
73. B. Zeigler, Freedom
72. A. Stewart, Upper Dublin
71. A. Milligan, State College
70. S. Weidner, Lower Dauphin
69. J. Espinal, Wilson
68. M. Scarpill, CB South
That stretch of 5 are some of the most interesting guys for me these first couple weeks, especially Scarpill and Espinal, I'm buying stock in them both big time.
67. E. Kennedy, Kiski
Tier 4: This group has a bit more impressive true XC credentials than tier 5, but I don't see quite enough big time potential to move them up to tier 3. The names start getting a bit more familiar from here in my mind.
66. K. Lapansky, Easton
65. E. Graca, Fox Chapel
64. B. Delaney, Manheim Township
63. S. Smith, Towanda
62. E. Linderman, Canon Mac
Graca trying to prove 800 based guys can excel at cross. He could end up a Lobb or Rotz type, probably not enough of a miler to end up like Stone. Linderman getting a ton of hype right now so I'll be looking forward to him. Smith is a very popular singer right now. Oh wait wrong guy.
61. A. Sauer, Pennsbury
60. J. Luckanitz, Governor Mifflin
59. J. Degroot Lutzner, Masterman
58. C. Trimble
57. T. Quiggle, Seneca Valley
A 1:52 split and 4:21 guy at 61 and 60. That's nice depth. Luckanitz could move up a lot in my eyes. Quiggle showed nice range last year, he and Kolor should be fun.
56. D. Green, James Buchanon
55. D. Eddinger, Boyertown
54. T. Gunzenhauser, Mt Lebanon
53. W. Sponaugle, Hershey
52. R. Tung, North Penn
51. M. Kolor, Seneca Valley
Eddinger is one of my most intriguing stories for this season after he burned through the rest of the states best lead off men, coming from seemingly nowhere to join Mercado. Boyertown has produced Weller (1st), Dennin (1st), Kelly (3rd) in recent years. Nice company. I'm on the Kolor bandwagon for sure. And I think if there is no rain at WPIALs TGunz has a much more impressive 16 PR to his name.
50. B. Wilt, Biglersville
49. M. Kravitz, North Pocono
Tier 3: We have hit guys who's skills are undeniable. I see Tier 3 as guys who are splitting the borderline between good and great. I'm not ready to say these guys are great, but they are very good. We are at AAA state medalist types now.
48. J. DiContino, Wymossing
47. J. Hoey, Malvern Prep
46. D. Knudsen, Mifflin County
45. S. Hilverding
44. B. Szuhaj, Penn Charter
For the record that's Little Hoey, Jaxson is a bit farther up. Had no idea Knudsen was coming back this year. Big sleeper out of District 6 no doubt, I like what he did last year on the track. And Big Ben Szuhaj was top 40 in the region 2 years ago. That's a guy who could fly up this list when healthy. Also Hilverding shouldn't be this low. He just shouldn't he's too good, gonna have to fix that on the next version.
43. B. Arita, CR North
42. J. Connors, Wilson
41. J. Tidball, Tunkhannock
40. N. Morgan, Lakeland
39. C. Holm, Radnor
Just raddled off some of my favorite names. Morgan and Holm are stud milers, I'll be interested to see if Holm translates like I think he will. Morgan is a much more established XC force. Tidball is on the defending champs and continued to improve during track last spring. I think he could be top 5 in AA states this year.
38. Z. Skolnevich, Quaker Valley
37. K. Shinn, Wyomising
36. K. Gonoude, Salisbury
35. S. Seel, North Allegheny
34. A. Benka, Grove City
33. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin
32. E. Diestelow, West Chester East
31. Ryan Budnik, Grove City
Wilson is more impressive the more I examine his resume and CD does a nice job with their runners. Lots of great programs in this group including our first NA runner.
And just a quick note for all the kids out there hating on WC East and their "peaking too early", take a quick peak at the state and regional results for Mr. Chris Cummings. Top 15 and top 20 in the region at the end of November? WC East does just fine with their dudes as proven by their great team in 2012, Cummings last year and Diestelow once he got healthy in track. Plus they have had a DMR make states in there. Sorry had to get that in there.
Tier 2: These kids are a step below Star. Not quite a state champ or district champ in my eyes right now, but if things break right they will be right in the mix for serious hardware.
30. J. Perlman, Lower Merion
29. C. Wills, Malvern Prep
28. H. Wharrey, North Allegheny
27. L. Delaney, Winchester Thurston
26. D. Stroh, Altoona
I have Wharrey and Wills a bit on the high side because I think being on a great team makes everybody a little bit better. Plus they have some nice resumes already.
For the record Altoona was sneaky good last year. They were nearly another LaSalle during XC, snagging a spot at states despite being screwed by the one spot for D6 rule. They barely lost to SC who was a clear top 5 team last year. Altoona probably was a top 7-10 team as well, but we never got to find out. Stroh was arguably their best guy last year, he was the district champ after all! Faust ended being the state medalist, however, and so he gets ranked up a bit higher.
25. J. Smith, Avon Grove
24. B. Faust, Altoona
23. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep
22. S. Curtin, Mercyhurst Prep
21. W. Loevner, Wichester Thurston
McDevitt gets a big boost after seeing his sea isle 10 miler run performance. I run that race every year, even when I haven't run for the month leading up to the race. It's a really fun run regardless of how out of shape you are and it was worth all the pain. Plus I got to see a pack of Ohara boys blow by me a little over halfway through and let me know how underrated they were. It was a powerful message, especially because I was slowly crumbling to pieces ... But I digress
20. P. Power, Spring Ford
19. N. Dahl, GFS
18. Z. Seiger, Red Land
17. W. Kachman, Bedford
16. A. Knapp, Henderson
This is a group I'm really rooting hat for. Dahl is a super exciting soph with a ton of talent. I underrated Seiger tragically last version of this list, he's a pro at XC. Knapp is a nice guy, clutch runner and trying to carry on a big time tradition. Kachman is the closest I get to making an It's A Wonderful Life reference and who doesn't love those. And Power ran in the 15:30s last year right? And he was a state medalist? He went in like the last round of last years pre state fantasy draft (to team etrain)! How does that happen? Kid deserves some love.
Tier 1: The cream of the crop. Guys with district state and national type goals.
15. S. Ritz, GA
14. A. Marston, Conestoga
13. C. Comber, Horsham
12. A. Gebhardt, New Oxford
11. D. Perretta, Beaver Area
Really fast dudes. Perrettas potential is through the roof. Ritz is a 4:10 guy. The other three are proven sub 9:20 guys as Juniors. That's no easy task. Plus they were all top 15 Aaa guys last year. They are real solid.
10. J. VanKooten, Pittsburgh CC
9. M. McGoey, NA
8. Z. Brehm, Carlisle
7. D. Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
6. J. Brophy, CB East
Two guys I picked to win state titles recently (brophy, brehm) plus one of my favorites in McGoey and a guy who already won a state champ in Hockenbury. The last guy? Just a great miler with XC hardware, a district title and some nice lineage. Brophy is probably a decent amount of people's pick to win states and they are smart people. And look Brehm might be the best guy the state has seen since Craig Miller. He already has a slew of sub 4:10 marks and two state titles. If he wins in XC he becomes an all timer.
5. C. Abert, Easton
4. S. Webb, Pennsbury
3. J. Hoey, Malvern Prep
2. G. Molino, south Williamsport
1. K. James, Ohara
I will talk more about this top group in another post (I've been typing for an hour plus) but just know all these guys are studs and the fact that I can't bring myself to put a stud like Abert higher than 5th is absurd. It shows how excellent the depth is that the best guy in his class for 2 years is somehow 5th.
It's gonna be a really fun year.
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