Weekend 1

After the opening weekend of action, I didn't feel a particularly strong need to do another ranking system when only a few small things would change. So I decided I will just give you guys my top 7 thoughts of the weekend (basically only top 7 can run varsity ...)

#1 District 6 is going to be very fun.
I'm gonna start this with a mini rant so be prepared. In 2012 LaSalle pulled off one of the coolest moments in state history, when the qualified for states by grabbing the only 5 available individual state qualifying spots at the d12 championships. Understand how improbable this is. You basically have to place 5 in the top 10 and still not win the meet. You can't have any guy have an off day, everything has to fall perfectly in place. And you need to have a really really good team that is still somehow not the best in the district. I'm not sure we will ever see it again.

LaSalle ended up 5th at states and probably could have been 3rd or 4th on a better day. Billotta, their 5th man on that day, had an off day (every team has a top 5 guy who doesn't have a great day on tht course, it's a brutal run) and if they actually had a 6 and 7 guy running that day they would have been able to help out billotta and possibly improve their team scoring. Once they had the 5 individuals qualify I'm kinda pissed that they didn't just let them run 7 guys. I mean c'mon PIAA, they crippled these guys.

Now I bring this up not to brag about how awesome LaSalle was that year (although how could I pass up an opportunity like that?), but instead to point how hard it is to be the second best team in a district that only sends one team to states. Especially when both teams are top 5 quality in the state. Now I'm not saying Altoona and State College are top 5 (although who knows? SC and Altoona have combined for a slew of top 5 teams over the years including last years 4th place squad) but both of these squads are very talented and only one can represent their district at states. Because Darien Knudsen is almost definitely making it to states if healthy which means there is no way the 2nd place team can get 5 in the top 10.

So in other words Altoona vs. State College this year has become the most interesting match up in the state. Altoona has defending state medalist Brad Foust and defending state champ Dom Stroh. That gave them a decided advantage in my head. However, it appears from this first meet that State College is not going away quietly and their leader, Alex Milligan, has continued his impressive improvement curve from a year ago as he finished first in the AAA section of their opener, beating Faust and Stroh who ran solid 2nd and 3rd finishes. As a result State College edged out Altoona in the team race. Epic stuff. A great team battle coupled with 4 guys (Faust, Stroh, Knudsen and Milligan) who are serious medal contenders in Hershey makes D6 the most fun district of week 1.


#2 Henderson and CR North have some work to do.
I'm not foolish enough to doubt either of these teams. I've seen them grow substantially over the course of a season and they are the two surest bets to make states year in and year out. But I will say this, the rest of the district is not afraid of their reputation. North got beat out by CB West (real impressive day for them) and CB East at Viking. Rock showed signs that he is ready to carry his track momentum to the trails this season for West and Brophy is obviously one of the favorites for individual district champ. Meanwhile Henderson was bested by Conestoga (early favorites for District champ) and DT West (young squad on the rise) and had some other teams on their back.

I'm not too phased by the Oakburne results (a two mile relay in August doesn't tell me much) and Viking, while a little bit more worrisome, is still August. But I will say that the district is very wide open for the 5 state spots. We haven't seen Pennsbury race yet (I expect them to be strong this year) but at this point only Conestoga looks like a lock for states. Everybody else is in a dog fight for the 4 remaining spots. That's exciting stuff.

(Mini rant, CB West returns basically their whole team from last year and is easily one of the best programs to have not made a state championship in the last decade or so. I'm a little upset with myself for completely over looking them in the preseason. This is a team I'm rooting for this year.)

#3 Dominic Hockenbury and Will Kachman is setting up to be an epic battle.
Another AAA chatter, let's get down to the two lost impressive performances of the weekend. Yeah I said it. First Hockenbury knocks off a top tier kinda guy in Nate Morgan of Lakeland, winning by almost a minute and breaking 16. The picture of Hockenbury with the fresh cut makes him look like he has grown and matured over the summer. He is making that Junior jump this year and already has a state gold and state silver going into this season. He really impressed me in race 1. It's just August, but this is the kind of first race a state champ/foot locker finalist puts down. He's looking good.

As for Kachman, he soloed a 16:11 victory in the fastest time of the day at his course (faster than all the D6 guys mentioned earlier). Kachman's true ceiling I don't expect to be measured until he can consistently find competition at his level ability (which technically may not happen until states, the kid is very talented). I think of him in similar way to Barrett Kemp. After years of flying under the radar in small district 9 Kemp ran under 9:20 as a senior at a windy states course to finish 3rd to just Shearn and Galassi, two greats of the era. I hope Kachman runs at Footlocker or Nike regionals this year. He's just a junior still and with proper big race experience has great potential.

These guys took 1-2 outdoors in the 32 and were 2-3 last year in XC behind Deluca. What a rivalry this has the potential to become in the next two years. Both guys will be juniors this year.

#4 The Chesmont shows early signs of being bananas
I touched on this briefly already, but I will elaborate here. I still expect Henderson to compete for a shot at states. Downingtown West came out the gates with a nice performance. Looks like Burton is riding top guy position right now, but their guys should continue to improve throughout the year, often times improving more than the upperclassmen throughout the year. No Alansky it looks like (I think I heard injury?) but they have filled in nicely with excellent depth. Both Burtons, Sappey, and Ryherd (not in their District top 7 last year) look like a really nice pack. Henderson still has nice weapons with Knapp and Barchet showing nice starts. Then you also have an on the rise Rustin team with Vogt and Coates having a nice start (they return basically everyone from a year ago) a Coatesville team that people have been giving chatter to (Blake Ettien mixed it up well with Stroh and Faust in the season opener, Tooles was a 1:57 guy on the track) and teams that are always strong like WC East and Great Valley. Plus you have Avon Grove (led by Josh Smith who ran excellent last year), DT East and a bunch of other young teams hungry to prove themselves. It's a good thing we have Chris Cummings on the case, because the Chesmont is setting up to be mayhem.

#5 Marston looks good for Conestoga, who coincidentally also looks good.
How about the start for Stoga? They asserted themselves against the two time state champs and Marston came out the gates guns blazing, I was impressed with his fitness. Stoga has incredible depth that I didn't quite realize they had. Nick Cruicshank quietly won the JV race at the meet, meaning Conestoga thought he was their 9th best guy. Their alleged 9th best guy is someone who ran 16:21 last year? Yikes. PJ Murray ran high 4:20s last year and now looks like a really solid varsity member for Stoga. Nelson looked strong, Iffert had a nice negative split, lots of good things on the horizon for Conestoga.

Yes it's just August, but this team looks like a squad poised to take a District title. And thought would be something truly historic.


#6 Brehm and Carlisle get a solid start
Here's the deal. Zach Brehm is going into his senior year as an All Timer in PA track. He's going in this year with a stacked resume. He has killer strength, as proven by a serious of great triples and quadruples in track, and he was top 10 in the state last year. If he adds an XC state title to his resume he becomes one of the best in state history.

So that's the guy motivating and leading the defending D3 runner ups in Carlisle. They are going after a much desired XC title to go with their track titles. They were 6th last year, on par with Conestoga and it's not like they return that much less. They showed a great top 3 this weekend and beat Chambersburg on their home course (nice running for burg though) so they are off to a good start. Carlisle peaked perfectly in track, so I expect a nice peak this year as well.

I can't stress this enough, it's only August.

#7 Not the big names, but some interesting subplots forming in the WPIAL

Lebo showed a nice pack (no Braun?) and their first meet, with Gunz as their 3 and impressive performances by Stone and Harris. Lebo was 8th last year and looks like have reloaded this year rather than rebuilding. Good stuff for a team that may have to deal with the shadow of NA (again).

Susalla had a big time win over White, Doyle and Conboy (and an intriguing soph from Baldwin). Susalla is one of those juniors with the potential to break out this fall. Nice for him to get a confidence building win. As for Baldwin, it's been a surprisingly long time since they have been truly relevant at WPIALs and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they start to jump up the standings this year.

Remember over the last decade or so the only two teams to scare NA as they try to continue their absurd streak of titles are Baldwin and Mt Lebo. Just saying.